1.4.1. New York State Lottery

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lotto had a total revenue from sales of lotto tickets amounting to $5,395,955. ... Use Microsoft Excel, make an x-y scatter plot using “Numbers Matched” as x-axis.
ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

1.4 Results 1.4.1. New York State Lottery New York State (NYS) runs a lottery. Part of the proceeds is used to support NYS public educations. The rest is used to make a few lucky winners wealthy. In 2003, NYS lotto had a total revenue from sales of lotto tickets amounting to $5,395,955. Of this amount, $1,780,355 was used to support education statewide, and $3,061,744 was used to pay the winners. Overall 57 cents of every Lottery dollar is returned to players in the form of prizes. Some basic information of NYS lotto is listed in the table below. New York State Lottery Address:

P.O. Box 7500 One Broadway Center Schenectady, New York 12301-7500

Internet:

http://www.nylottery.org

E-mail Address:

N/A

Phone:

(518) 388-3300

Fax:

(518) 388-3403

Population:

18.98 million

Lottery Director: Year Lottery Founded:

June 1967

Sales FY 1997: Sales FY 1998: Sales FY 1999: Sales FY 2000: Sales FY 2001: Sales FY 2002: Sales FY 2003:

$3,992 million $3,940 million $3,697 million $4,100 million $4,185 million $4,753 million $5.4 Billion

Number of Employees:

312

Retailers :

15,000

On-line Vendor:

GTech

Instant Ticket Vendor:

Pollard Banknote Limited (Primary) Scientific games

ITVMs

On-Point Interlott

Games Offered:

Instant, Numbers, Win-4, Take Five, Lotto,Quick Draw, Pick 10, Mega Millions

Proceeds:

Education (NYS Public Schools)

Jurisdiction:

New York

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ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

The following table includes data on chance of winning NYS lottery. Numbers Matched

Prize Chances of Level Winning

Six

1st

1:45,057,474.00 1:22,528,737.00

Five + bonus

2nd

1:7,509,579.00

1:3,754,789.50

Five

3rd

1:144,414.98

1:72,207.49

Four

4th

1:2,179.85

1:1,089.92

Three

5th

1:96.17

1:48.08

On a $1 Play

Q1. Use Microsoft Excel, make an x-y scatter plot using “Numbers Matched” as x-axis and “Chances of Winning on a $1 Play” as y-axis. Label x and y-axes. Learn how to manipulate symbols and make your plot presentable. Duplicate the plot and then change the y-axis to logarithmic scale. Q2. How much harder is it to win a six-number-matched jackpot vs. a three-numbermatched game? Q3. Survey your class for winning history of NYS lottery. Summarize the result into a table in Excel. Record total number of students in your lab session, number of participant for NYS lottery, for each participant number of tickets bought and money spent, as well as their winning history. Do not record name of students for privacy reasons. Q4. Calculate the chance of winning based on the survey you conducted in your class. Is it consistent with the results from NYS lottery website (e.g. table above)?

1.4.2 Fatality rate of driving The fatality analysis reporting system of National Highway Safety and Traffic Association (http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/) has the following table that lists the fatality rate due to automobile usage. 2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

38,309

37,862

37,526

37,140

37,107

37,324

37,494

37,241

36,254

Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes Fatal Crashes

National Rates: Fatalities Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled

1.50

1.52

1.53

1.55

1.58

1.64

1.69

1.73

1.73

Fatalities per 100,000 Population

14.85 14.79 14.86 15.30 15.36 15.69 15.86 15.91 15.64

Fatalities per 100,000 Registered Vehicles

18.97 19.07 19.33 19.61 19.95 20.64 20.86 21.22 21.15

Fatalities per 100,000 Licensed Drivers

22.04 22.06 22.00 22.29 22.44 22.99 23.43 23.68 23.21

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ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

Q5. Calculate individual fatality rate for the year 2002 based on fatalities per 100, 000 population. Express your result as one death for certain numbers of people. Q6. A typical automobile driver accumulates 10,000 miles on a vehicle per year. Calculate individual fatality rate for the year 2002 based on fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. Q7. Make a plot of individual fatality rate (y-axis) vs. annual mileage traveled (x-axis) for up to 100, 000 miles traveled per year. Q8. Comment on the individual fatality rate you obtained in Q5 and Q6.

1.4.3. Health risks of smoking Adult Cigarette Smoking Rate for Total Population, 2002

Less than 21.5% 21.5% to 23.0% 23.1% to 26.0% More than 26.0% No data available/NSD

Number of Cancer Deaths per 100,000 Population, 2000

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ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

Less than 190.5 190.5 to 204.1 204.2 to 212.0 More than 212.0 No data available/NSD

Q9. Is there a first order similarity between the two graphs above, one showing adult smoking rate, another cancer death per 100,000 population in year 2002? Q10. Based on the data presented in the table below (next page), calculate the individual fatality rate from cancer for a New York State resident in year 2002. Q11. Plot again, an x-y scatter plot. In this case, using smoking rate as x-axis and cancer death rate as y-axis. Q12. Use “Add Trend Line” function to obtain a linear fit to your data. Ask your instructor to explain the significance and caveat in this trend you observe.

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ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

States United States Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Rank Smoking Rate

Smoking Rate, 2002 23.10%

Rank Cancer deaths

17 2 22 12 50 45 47 14 45 34 24 43 44 27 5 26 34 1 19 21 36 49 18 37 6 8 40 29 13 25 48 41 32 11 38 8 7 32 15 31 8 30 4 27 51 41 15 38 3 23 20

24.40% 29.40% 23.50% 26.30% 16.40% 20.40% 19.50% 24.70% 20.40% 22.10% 23.30% 21.10% 20.60% 22.90% 27.70% 23.10% 22.10% 32.60% 23.90% 23.60% 22.00% 19.00% 24.20% 21.70% 27.40% 26.60% 21.30% 22.80% 26.00% 23.20% 19.10% 21.20% 22.40% 26.40% 21.50% 26.60% 26.70% 22.40% 24.60% 22.50% 26.60% 22.60% 27.80% 22.90% 12.70% 21.20% 24.60% 21.50% 28.40% 23.40% 23.70%

7 17 47 14 45 49 40 28 1 38 22 50 46 12 8 35 41 2 3 9 15 19 27 35 5 24 33 42 9 21 24 48 34 26 44 12 18 30 20 23 11 39 6 31 51 29 16 32 4 35 43

Guam Puerto Rico Virgin Islands

Cancer Deaths per 100,000 population , 2000 199.6 215.5 208.2 177.9 210.5 182.1 169.9 189.5 203.2 238.3 191.6 206.7 155.7 180.5 212 214.8 191.7 187 228.7 227.9 213.6 209.7 207.2 204 191.7 223.6 205.9 194 186.2 213.6 206.9 205.9 172.3 192.2 204.2 183.7 212 207.4 197.3 207 206.4 212.6 190.5 218.8 196.2 151.2 198 208.5 195.8 223.9 191.7 185.5

Rank Deaths rate

Deaths per 100,000 population 868.3

5

1003.9

24

868.5

37

809.5

11

976.6

48

787.2

46

791.4

45

792.9

19

896.1

1

1058.3

40

806.9

9

979.8

51

674.4

38

809

23

882.3

13

929.2

43

794.5

28

850.1

6

998

4

1005.6

25

859.3

17

908.2

34

817.6

18

903.8

50

760.4

2

1050.9

15

920.3

29

843.1

44

794.1

16

918.1

35

815.2

26

852.2

39

808.3

36

813.1

12

951.7

49

761.8

14

923

8

982.5

30

830.7

20

891.6

31

823.6

10

979.7

41

805.6

7

996.2

21

890.2

47

788.2

32

821.7

22

889.7

42

804.3

3

1010.7

33

819.9

27

851.6

32.10% 13.20% 9.50% Unknown

http://www.statehealthfacts.org/

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ENSCI 111 laboratory, Yan Zheng

Here are some facts about two major health risks of smoking: 1. Cardiovascular disease due to atherosclerosis is the main cause of death due to smoking, with an overall increase of death of 1.7 times. Atherosclerosis is the term used to describe the clogging up of the arteries with fatty material, leaving them narrow, blocked or rigid. 2. The risk of getting cancer is generally greater for smokers than non-smokers by a factor of 2.24. References Peto R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M, Heath Jr C. Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics. Lancet 1992; 339: 1268-78. Doll R, Peto R, Wheatley K, Gray R, Sutherland I. Mortality in relation to smoking: 40 years' observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 1994;309:901-911 Doll R, Crofton J, eds. British Medical Bulletin: Tobacco and Health. London: The Royal Society of Medicine Press, 1996; (vol 52). Cook DG, Strachan DP, Anderson Ross H. Series of papers: health effects of passive smoking. Thorax 1997-1998. Eds Britton JR, Weiss ST.

Q13. It appears that smoking in general doubles a person’s death risk. Go back to the plot you’ve made in Q11. Do you see consistency between the two results? Explain why or why not.

1.4.4 Health risks of asbestos: "Asbestos" is the name of a group of similar minerals with separable, long, and thin fibers. Asbestos has long been suspected as a health threat to humans, because the fibers can be inhaled and are difficult to remove from the lungs. According to Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) (http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/asbestos/), chronic exposure to asbestos may increase the risk of lung cancer, mesothelioma, and nonmalignant lung and pleural disorders. Evidence in humans comes from epidemiologic studies as well as numerous studies of workers exposed to asbestos in a variety of occupational settings. This conclusion is based on observations of these diseases in groups of workers with cumulative exposures ranging from about 5 to 1,200 fiber-year/mL. Such exposures would result from 40 years of occupational exposure to air concentrations of 0.125 to 30 fiber/mL. Air concentrations of asbestos fibers in ambient (typical) air are 0.00001 to 0.0001 fibers per milliliter (fiber/mL). The recently established exposure limit for U.S. workplaces is 0.1 fiber/mL. Q15. The exposure to asbestos is measured by a unit called fiber-year/mL. For example, 40 years of exposure to air containing 1 asbestos fiber per mL of air will result in an exposure level of 40 fiber-year/mL. If you are going to live for 80 years, calculate your life time exposure to asbestos, assuming you will breath ambient air with asbestos fiber concentrations of 0.0001 fibers/mL.

Q16. The chart on next page shows that intermediate level of exposure, ranging from 10100 fiber-year/mL shows increased level of respiratory and cancer risks. But are you concerned given your exposure level calculated in Q15?

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