Center for Scientific Analysis of Policy, LLC http://www.scipolicy.org
White Paper Series: Case Studies Using IPA to Evaluate Policies of 2016 Presidential Candidates
Ben Carson’s Carson’s Economic Policy: Policy: A Structural Case Study Steven E. Wallis, PhD; Bernadette Wright, PhD
Due to the large number of candidates running for president and the complexity of their policy statements, we present this analysis to help voters understand, evaluate, and compare those policies to support decision-making and our democratic process.
indicate greater ability to make effective policy decisions. This indicates the policy’s ability to reach its stated goals in much the same was as a road map with more roads and destination provides a more useful tool for planning a business trip or a vacation.
Ben Carson is a 2016 Republican Candidate for U.S. President. In this white paper, we present the results of an Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) study of his economic policy as presented on his website:
Although there were some statements in the text that might be seen as fuzzy or ambiguous, we made a good-faith effort to reflect the candidate’s position accurately. We are open to additional information and to revised analyses with the goal of creating the most accurate representation possible.
https://www.bencarson.com/issues/balanced -budget-amendment/ https://www.bencarson.com/issues/taxreform/
Comparison of Policies 1
Successful policies should be located in this quadrant
0.8
Depth
Our goal here is to conduct a scientific, non-partisan evaluation to suggest the potential for success, along with opportunities for improvement, of that policy. It is not our intent to suggest that the policy might be right or wrong, good or bad (as partisan analyses might claim). Instead, our focus is on whether the policy will have the effects anticipated according to the text provided by the candidate.
0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0
10
20
30
Breadth
Another way to explain this is that we are looking at the policy as a sense-making device or as a kind of map. Higher scores
Carson’s economic policy
1
40
50
(from looking at a small part of the picture) is not likely to be useful in comprehending or managing a large and complex thing.
Method of Analysis This evaluation is primarily an analysis of the internal logic-structures of the policy. Those provide useful indicators of the policy’s sense-making ability and predictors for its potential success or failure. Two important assumptions may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of any policy. First, the extent to which the claims of the policy are based on good empirical data. Second, the extent to which the policy may be implemented as proposed. Those two issues may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of this policy. However, they are not part of our present analysis. IPA (Integrative Propositional Analysis) is an emerging methodology used to analyze the internal structure of conceptual systems such as theories, strategic plans, and policies. It is a rigorous, objective, and non-partisan approach. Many scholarly publications have shown the effectiveness of IPA. You may find these in the fields of policy, organizational learning, management, philosophy, and others. For an overview and background information, please see our white papers:
The low number of concepts indicates “missing ingredients” that may be necessary for success. Indeed, for every missing ingredient, there is another opportunity for unanticipated consequences.
http://scipolicy.org/principles-of-ipa--white-papers.html Results of Analysis
There are no “Transformative” concepts (boxes with two causal arrows pointing at it). Therefore, the Depth of the map is equal to zero. “Zero” indicates the least level of Depth while a score of “one” indicates the greatest Depth.
We used IPA to identify relevant propositions from the text of Ben Carson’s economic policy and developed the following causal map: As seen, there are six concepts (one per box). Therefore, the “Breadth” of the policy map is equal to six. The Breadth of this policy is very low. This indicates a great weakness of the policy because the economy is a very large and complex thing. A small understanding
Depth is a strong indicator for policy success. With a Depth of zero, we do not expect that this policy will achieve its stated goals. Indeed, we expect far more unanticipated outcomes than anticipated ones. 2
of the policy. After all, there are other difficult issues to consider. The present analysis is based on the assumption that the policy would be implemented as planned. That is in no way guaranteed. Also, the present evaluation is based on the assumption that the policy is based on factual data. Again, there is no way to know that for sure.
IPA is a rigorous, scientific, non-partisan approach to analyzing the structure of policy maps to indicate their potential for success
In short, without those kinds of deeper understandings, the map cannot provide a useful understanding of a complex situation, or serve as a useful guide for resolving those issues.
In this policy, we see “branching” logic structures. Here, there are single “causes” with multiple “effects.” For example, BC-1 causes BC-2 and BC-3. This represents a kind of “silver bullet” thinking, hinting at an unacceptably high level of optimism that should not be part of a rigorous policy for something so important as the national economy. Indeed, it does not seem to be a good representation of the real world. There are no concepts here that are well defined (having two or more arrows pointing toward them), so there is no reason to expect that any part of this plan will be successful.
Conclusion In this case study, we have presented a structural analysis of an economic policy. We have avoided partisan arguments around whether the policy might be “good” or “true.” Our sole concern is to understand the extent to which the author of the policy seems to understand our economic situation (as reflected in the text of the policy) and how that understanding relates to the potential for the policy to achieve its stated goals. That is to say, the overall usefulness of the map as a tool for navigation. There are lofty goals, but no clear path for reaching them.
It is not clear how one might pass a balanced budget amendment, or how to completely and successfully revise the tax code. Realistically, we would expect significant opposition to such efforts. And, the present policy shows no path for overcoming such opposition. Indeed, the map is open to illogical interpretations, illegitimate claims, spurious criticism, and confusing rhetoric. It also means that there is a lack of transparency. If a candidate claims that the map is a guide, but there are missing elements, it is difficult to accept that claim as valid. While these assessments may seem negative, they are intended to identify weaknesses only as an opportunity for improving the strength
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Chance of achieving stated goals: Approaching zero
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Chance of unanticipated consequences: Approaching 100%
Without such analysis, it is more difficult for interested citizens to make informed decisions. IPA provides a scientific, non-
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partisan source of policy analyses. The objective insights presented here will help to inform policy discussions and national level decision-making. There is a deep need for this kind of analysis as a new approach to resolving the frequent and divisive arguments that plague our decision making process.
Better maps will also improve transparency and accountability by clarifying the candidate’s understanding and anticipated actions to achieve success according to the policy.
Our analysis shows that this is a very weak policy. Its low level of Breadth and Depth Indicates that implementing this policy would produce many unanticipated consequences while providing few of the expected benefits. Further, because there are so few causal connections, an individual might make spurious claims about the efficacy or justification for policy action.
The Center for Scientific Analysis of Policy, LLC, is an independent research group of scholars and practitioners working in the Policy Analysis field and the STEM specialties (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics). We use our expertise in evaluating documents to determine if they are based on current knowledge and methodologies of those disciplines along with a deep understanding of how the law and policy intersects with social and cultural networks.
To improve its chance for successful implementation, the map should be expanded to include additional concepts and causal connections (to show how changes in each will cause changes in others) based on expert insight and empirical study.
We present the results of our analyses in a clear, concise, and deliberately nonpartisan manner.
Policy maps with more Breadth and Depth will be more useful for elected officials to make successful policy decisions. By understanding the structure of maps, the American people are empowered to make more informed voting decisions.
By doing so, we hope to promote the adoption of sustainable and generative policies that have the greatest potential benefit to the people of America and the world, avoiding laws and policies that are profligate and injudicious.
Here, IPA also provides value as a path for voters and interest groups to combine multiple maps – to see what is missing from a map and add it in. The newer, integrated, map will help us all to understand more of the potential outcomes from the policy. And, importantly, such a process of collaborative mapping help to reduce divisive argumentation and support the greater collaboration needed to understand and resolve the great difficulties of our time.
For more information, contact:
[email protected]
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