Book of Abstracts

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These are issues that have generated some controversy in the media ...... social network analysis; spectral clustering; underlying stock dynamics; web-based ...... the tuna industry, science and wwF, the global conservation organization. ...... a celebrity chef campaign to end discards started to gain public support, reaching ...
6th World Fisheries Congress Sustainable Fisheries in a Changing World 7th - 11th May 2012 Edinburgh, Scotland

Book of Abstracts

www.6thwfc2012.com

Oral Abstracts

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Quantifying the impacts of climate change on marine shelf ecosystems and their resources: Feeding the world in 2050 Barange, Manuel1; Allen, Icarus1; Holt, Jason2; Merino, Gorka1; Blanchard, Julia3; Jennings, Simon4; Harle, James2 1 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, United Kingdom; 2National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom; 36KHIÀHOG8QLYHUVLW\8QLWHG.LQJGRP4CEFAS, United Kingdom

7KHÀVKHU\LQ5XVVLD7RGD\DQGWRPRUURZ Bulatov, Oleg; Bizikov, Vyacheslav; Kotenev, Boris; Klovach, Nataliya; Borisov, Vladimir; Leontiev, Sergei; Brazhnik, Svetlana 5XVVLDQ)HGHUDO5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWHRI)LVKHULHVDQG2FHDQRJUDSK\91,525XVVLDQ Federation 7KH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI DTXDWLF OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHV LQ 5XVVLDQ ZDWHUV LV DW D KLJK OHYHO7KH PDLQWDUJHWVSHFLHVRIÀVKHU\DUHZDOOH\HSROORFNSDFLÀFVDOPRQVKHUULQJFRGKDOLEXWV FUDEVDQGVTXLGV7KHWRWDOQDWLRQDOFDWFKLQKDVH[FHHGHGPLOOLRQWRQVWKHKLJKHVW OHYHOVLQFH$FFRUGLQJWRWKHH[SHUWHVWLPDWLRQVWKH,88ÀVKHU\RIVDOPRQVPDULQH ÀVKHVDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVUHDFKHVWKHVXEVWDQWLDOYROXPHRIPOQW7KHUHIRUHWKHXVH RIHIIHFWLYHPHDVXUHVRQÀVKHU\PDQDJHPHQWLQFOXGLQJWKHUHJXODWLRQDQGWKHVWURQJ LOOHJDOXQUHSRUWHGXQUHJXODWHGÀVKHU\FRQWUROZLOODOORZLQFUHDVLQJWKHQDWLRQDOFDWFKE\ QRWOHVVWKDQWKRXVDQGWRQV7KHVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWDQGÀVKHU\PDQDJHPHQWDUHEDVHG RQDQDO\WLFDODSSURDFKZLWKDFFRXQWRIWUDZOVXUYH\VDQGVWDWLVWLFDOÀVKHU\GDWD$VWKH practice has shown, the present methodology of stock assessment generally produces the satisfactory results. However, the forecast of Total Allowable Catch 1-2 years in advance QHHGV WKH VHULRXV LPSURYHPHQW 7KH PDLQ SUREOHPV LQFOXGH WKH SURMHFWHG DEXQGDQFH RIUHFUXLWPHQWYDOLGLW\RIDJHVSHFLÀFDQGÀVKLQJPRUWDOLW\FRHIÀFLHQWV7KHDUELWUDU\ PRUWDOLW\ FRHIÀFLHQWV XVHG LQ FDOFXODWLRQV UHVXOW LQ LQFRUUHFW IRUHFDVWLQJ DVVHVVPHQWV The medium- and long-range forecasting of stock dynamics of main commercial species is a very important application task. The present studies have shown that the biomass dynamics of commercially important species was determined considerably by climate YDULDELOLW\ 7KXV WKH GHFDGDO ÀVKHU\ IRUHFDVWV KDYH WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH FOLPDWLF trends.

The urgency to estimate the impacts of climate change on marine production has been elevated since the release of the 4th IPCC assessment report, where only 0.3% of the examples discussed referred to marine ecosystems. The development of climate models has provided increasingly realistic simulations of changes in physical ocean properties and on the biochemistry of the global ocean based on particular carbon emission scenarios. However, the impacts of climate change on marine ecological processes and WKHLUÀVKUHVRXUFHVDUHPXFKOHVVXQGHUVWRRG'HVSLWHUHFHQWDWWHPSWVWRSURMHFWFDWFK potential changes from bioclimate envelope models (Cheung et al. 2010, 2011), the spatial resolution of the underling ecosystem models cannot capture processes in coastal and shelf regions or the complex and often compensatory ecological interactions leading to changes in potential catch changes. Here we use a climate change model driven by emissions scenario SRES A1B, coupled to high-resolution physical-biological models of the shelf seas of almost 70 countries from 28 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME), to obtain size-based estimates of marine ecosystem production changes by 2050. These estimates DUHXVHGWRSURMHFWSRWHQWLDOIRUÀVKSURGXFWLRQERWKIRUGLUHFWKXPDQFRQVXPSWLRQDQG IRUDQLPDOIHHGV ÀVKPHDO :HWKHQXVHKXPDQSRSXODWLRQVL]HHVWLPDWHVIURP8QLWHG 1DWLRQV SURVSHFWV ÀVKPHDO DQG ÀVK RLO SULFH HVWLPDWLRQV IURP SXEOLVKHG HFRQRPLF VFHQDULRV DQG SURMHFWLRQV RI WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW RI DTXDFXOWXUH IHHG technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita ÀVKFRQVXPSWLRQUDWHVLQ

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Effect of climate change on the ecosystem of the Campeche Sound, Mexico, and LPSOLFDWLRQVIRUÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW Arreguin-Sanchez, Francisco &HQWUR,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDULRGH&LHQFLDV0DULQDVGHO,310H[LFR

(IIHFWVRIFOLPDWHLQGXFHGFKDQJHVLQÀVKVSHFLHVGLVWULEXWLRQRQGLIIHUHQWÁHHW FRPSRQHQWVRI3RUWXJXHVHÀVKHULHV Gamito, Rita7HL[HLUD&pOLD0&RVWD0DULD-&DEUDO+HQULTXH1 &HQWURGH2FHDQRJUDÀD)DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDVGD8QLYHUVLGDGHGH/LVERD3RUWXJDO

The Campeche Sound, on the Southern Gulf of Mexico, had been one of the most LPSRUWDQW ÀVKLQJ UHJLRQV RI 0H[LFR EHFDXVH RI WKH VKULPS WUDZO ÀVKHU\ DQG WKH GLYHUVLW\ RI VSHFLHV RI ÀVKHV DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV H[SORLWHG E\ WKH VPDOO VFDOH ÀVKHU\ +RZHYHU WKH VKULPS ÀVKHU\ FROODSVHG SUHVHQW FDSWXUHV DUH DERXW  W SHU \HDU respect to an average of more than 20,000 t per year captured in the decades of 1950’s and 1960’s. The collapse has been related to indices of climate change, and other evidences suggests a global decrease of the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. In this contribution we test this hypothesis. From a trophic model of the ecosystem (based on Ecopath) is used the ATlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, over the last six decades as a driver on primary producers leaving the signal to spread in the rest of the ecosystem via foodweb. The biomasses simulated with the dynamic trophic model (Ecosim) was calibrated using existing information on relative abundances of shrimp and other species RIFRPPHUFLDOÀVKHV)RUHDFK\HDURYHUWKH\HDUSHULRGSRSXODWLRQWRHFRV\VWHP performance indicators were estimated indicating the contribution of each population to the maintainance of the order of the ecosystem. A base-line state of the ecosystem ZDVGHÀQHGZLWKGDWDIURPWKHSHULRG·VWR·VWKHQGHFDGHVRI·V·V and 2000’s were assumed as potential alternatives ecosystem states and compared with WKH EDVH OLQH 'DWD ZHUH DOVR FRQWUDVWHG LQ WHUPV RI VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DQG YLWDOLW\ RI WKH ecosystem. Even when the structure of the ecosystem (relative abundance of the species) shows clear differences between periods, ecosystem indicators suggest an ecosystem trend or alternatives states of the same ecosystem, instead different (independent) ecosystem states. The experiment suggests the need of addressing more directly the effects of the climate change as a strategy to adapt management to the potential alternative ecosystem states under sustainability-dynamic criteria

Climate change results in changes in the marine environment of temperate ocean systems, such as sea level rise, higher ocean temperatures, changes in ocean chemistry and changes in ocean circulation. These physical effects of climate change on the marine HQYLURQPHQWDIIHFWÀVKVWRFNVHLWKHUGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\7KHLQGLUHFWLPSDFWVDUHUHODWHG with changes in productivity and in the structure and composition of marine ecosystems. The direct impacts are mainly physiological and behavioural effects, such as changes in growth, reproduction, mortality and distribution. Changes in geographical distribution of a species are more easily detected on its northern and southern distribution limits. The Portuguese coast is mainly North-South oriented and is located in a biogeographic WUDQVLWLRQ ]RQH ZKHUH VHYHUDO ÀVK VSHFLHV KDYH WKHLU QRUWKHUQ RU VRXWKHUQ OLPLWV RI distribution. Moreover, changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to be more accelerated in Portugal than the global mean alteration rate. In the present work, trends in monthly landings along the Portuguese coast were analysed in order to assess the effects RI FKDQJHV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI FRPPHUFLDO ÀVK VSHFLHV RQ ÀVKHULHV 7KLV DQDO\VLV IRFXVHGRQGLIIHUHQWÁHHWFRPSRQHQWVRIÀVKHULHVRQGLIIHUHQWUHJLRQVRIWKH3RUWXJXHVH coast, to assess how these components are adapting to the effects of climate change.

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5LVNDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQÀVKHULHVVSHFLHV&DVHVWXG\ in South Eastern Australia :DUG7LP1; Pecl, Gretta2; Frusher, Stewart2; Clarke, Steven1'D\-HPHU\3'L[RQ Cameron1; Hobday, Alistair3; Neil, Hutchinson3; Jennings, Sarah4; Jones, Keith1; Li, Xiaoxu16SRRQHU'DQLHO36SRRQHU'DQLHO3; Stoklosa, Richard3 1 $TXDWLF6FLHQFHV$XVWUDOLD27DVPDQLDQ)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDFXOWXUH,QVWLWXWH $XVWUDOLD3$XVWUDOLD46FKRRORI(FRQRPLFVDQG)LQDQFH$XVWUDOLD

9XOQHUDELOLW\RIDUWLVDQDOÀVKHULHVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQWKH9HQLFHODJRRQ Pranovi, Fabio; Caccin, Alberto; Franzoi, Piero; Zucchetta, Matteo; Torricelli, Patrizia &D·)RVFDUL8QLYHUVLW\RI9HQLFH,WDO\ At present, the climate change represents one of the main drivers affecting marine ecosystems. In particular, it is expected that meteo-climatic variations could directly affect features, as hydrodynamic conditions, productivity, life-cycles of species, and FRPPXQLW\VWUXFWXUH:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIJOREDOFKDQJHVWKH9HQLFHODJRRQUHSUHVHQWV an interesting case study. It is the largest Mediterranean lagoon, supporting a wide range of ecosystem services and hosting one of the most peculiar towns in the world; all of this represents a big challenge in terms of management options. Moreover, within the context of global warming scenarios, this portion of the Northern Adriatic Sea west coast can be UHJDUGHGDVDQH[WUHPHO\YXOQHUDEOHDUHD'XHWRWKHORFDOJHRJUDSKLFIHDWXUHVLQGHHG the zone has been described as the “Venetian lacuna”, an area where Mediterranean climatic conditions are replaced by Atlantic ones; all this supports the presence of ´JODFLDOUHOLFWVµVXFKDVVSUDWÁRXQGHUDQGJUD\SUDZQ1HNWRQLFDVVHPEODJHUHSUHVHQWV therefore, a good candidate in terms of “early proxy” for thermal regime alterations; PRUHRYHULWUHSUHVHQWVDTXLWHG\QDPLFFRPSRQHQWRIWKHODJRRQHFRV\VWHPFKDQJLQJLQ space and time, actively moving through the entire system, and dynamically exchanging ZLWKWKHRSHQVHD ZKHUHÀUVWVLJQDOVRIWKHFKDQJHKDYHEHHQDOUHDG\GHWHFWHGVXFKDV WKHSUHVHQFHRIDOLHQWKHUPRSKLOLFVSHFLHV :LWKLQWKLVFRQWH[WVLQFHWKHEHJLQQLQJRI WKHFHQWXU\DVDPSOLQJDFWLYLW\RIWKHQHNWRQLFDVVHPEODJHKDVEHHQFDUULHGRXWMRLQWO\ ZLWKWKHORFDOÀVKHUPHQ&ROOHFWHGVDPSOHVDUHUHIHUUHGWRWZRWLPHVSRWV  DQG EXWWKH\KDYHEHHQLQWHJUDWHGZLWKGDWDDERXWODQGLQJVIURPWKHÀVK market. Vulnerability to thermal regime changes has been tested by categorizing species according to the mean distribution area in terms of latitudinal range (over 45°, 30°-45°, EHORZƒ DQGDQDO\]LQJERWKVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOYDULDWLRQVZLWKLQÀVKLQJJURXQGV 5HVXOWV KLJKOLJKWHG D KLJK SRWHQWLDO YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI WKH DUWLVDQDO ÀVKLQJ DFWLYLW\ WR climate change, being the commercial catch entirely composed by cold and temperate DIÀQLW\VSHFLHVDWSUHVHQWQRDOLHQWKHUPRSKLOLFVSHFLHVKDVEHHQUHFRUGHGZLWKLQWKH ODJRRQÀQDOO\DGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGRIFROGDIÀQLW\VSHFLHVGXULQJWKHODVWGHFDGHKDVEHHQ detected. All this has been discussed in the light of the mean annual temperature trend .

Marine waters off south-eastern Australia produce more than 50% of the country’s wild caught seafood and are a global “hot spot” for marine climate change. The region provided a useful a case study for developing a framework to prioritise UHVHDUFKWRLQIRUPÀVKHULHVDGDSWLRQEHFDXVHORQJWHUPÀVKHULHVGDWDVHWVZHUHDYDLODEOH considerable warming had already occurred; future changes in the physical environment ZLOOEHVSDWLDOO\DQGWHPSRUDOO\KHWHURJHQHRXVÀVKHULHVWDUJHWDZLGHUDQJHRIVSHFLHV and use a diversity of methods; there are complex social considerations (e.g. access by FRPPHUFLDOUHFUHDWLRQDODQGLQGLJHQRXVVHFWRUV DQGWKHUHDUHÀYHMXULVGLFWLRQVHDFK with different management systems and legislation. 7KLVSURMHFWZDVFRQGXFWHGZLWKLQWKH6RXWK(DVW$XVWUDOLD3URJUDP 6($3 WKDWZDV developed to coordinate research and adaption to marine climate change. 7KHREMHFWLYHVRIWKHVWXG\ZHUHWR ‡ LGHQWLI\SK\VLFDODQGFKHPLFDOSDUDPHWHUVWKDWPD\GHWHUPLQHLPSDFWV ‡ LGHQWLI\OLIHKLVWRU\VWDJHVRINH\ÀVKHULHVVSHFLHVOLNHO\WREHLPSDFWHG ‡ FRQGXFW D ULVN DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH SRWHQWLDO YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI NH\ VSHFLHV WR FOLPDWH change induced alterations in abundance, distribution and phenology; ‡ KLJKOLJKWFULWLFDOGDWDJDSVUHOHYDQWWRIXWXUHDVVHVVPHQWDQGDGDSWDWLRQ /LWHUDWXUH UHYLHZV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG WR GHYHORS ´DVVHVVPHQW SURÀOHVµ IRU NH\ VSHFLHV OLNHO\SK\VLFDOGULYHUVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHVWUHVVRUVZHUHLGHQWLÀHGDQGWKHHFRQRPLFDQG VRFLDOYDOXHVRIHDFKÀVKHU\ZHUHDVVHVVHG,QQRYDWLYHULVNDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGVZHUH developed and applied to identify the relative vulnerability (i.e. sensitivity and exposure) of key species. Future research needs were prioritised and used to develop a research program to inform future adaptation. )XWXUHUHVHDUFKZLOOIRFXVRQDGDSWDWLRQDQGYXOQHUDELOLWLHVRIVSHFLHV IURPDUDQJHRI habitats and taxonomic groups, e.g. rocky reefs (abalone, rock lobster), coastal systems (snapper) and deep water (blue grenadier); 2) at high (southern rock lobster, abalone) or medium (snapper) risk and with high commercial value and/or recreational importance; 3) likely to exhibit changes in productivity (rock lobster) or distribution (abalone and VQDSSHU 7KHQH[WSURMHFWZLOODOVRGHVLJQDQLQWHJUDWHGSURJUDPWRPRQLWRUWKHHIIHFWV RIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHNH\PDULQHKDELWDWVVSHFLHVHFRV\VWHPVDQGÀVKHULHVRI6( Australia.

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&OLPDWHFKDQJHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUODNHZKLWHÀVK Coregonus clupeaformis) harvest management in the Laurentian Great Lakes Lynch, Abigail7D\ORU:LOOLDP 0LFKLJDQ6WDWH8QLYHUVLW\8QLWHG6WDWHV

$QDSSURDFKWRVXVWDLQDEOHÀVKHU\WKURXJKWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHXSZHOOLQJ migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and chlorophyll A Villegas, Nancy; Malikov, Igor 1DWLRQDO8QLYHUVLW\RI&ROXPELD&RORPELD

6LQFH  SRSXODWLRQV RI ODNH ZKLWHÀVK &RUHJRQXV FOXSHDIRUPLV) have supported WKH PRVW HFRQRPLFDOO\ YDOXDEOH DQG SURGXFWLYH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHU\ LQ WKH XSSHU Laurentian Great Lakes (Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior; annual catch value = 86PLOOLRQ &KDQJHVLQUHJLRQDOFOLPDWHYDULDEOHVDUHH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHVXUIDFH temperatures of the Great Lakes by as much as 6°C and result with substantially reduced ice cover. Additionally, the average wind speed over these lakes is expected to decline. 7KHVHFKDQJHVDUHSUHGLFWHGWRLPSDFWWKHSURGXFWLYLW\DQGYDOXHRIWKHODNHZKLWHÀVK ÀVKHU\ EHFDXVH WKH VXFFHVV RI UHFUXLWPHQW WR WKH ÀVKHU\ KDV EHHQ OLQNHG ZLWK WKHVH FOLPDWLFDOO\ LQÁXHQFHG IDFWRUV7KLV UHVHDUFK LV GHYHORSLQJ D WRRO WR RSWLPL]H KDUYHVW PDQDJHPHQWLQDFKDQJLQJFOLPDWHE\H[DPLQLQJWKHFRUUHODWLRQRIFOLPDWHSURMHFWLRQV ZLWK WKH FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVLOLHQFH RI ODNH ZKLWHÀVK DQG WKHLU UHFUXLWPHQW G\QDPLFV LQ WKH XSSHU *UHDW /DNHV 6SHFLÀFDOO\ WKLV WRRO ZLOO LQWHJUDWH WKH LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH change on the ecology and population dynamics of this species on a basin-wide scale. &XUUHQWO\ PRVW PDQDJHPHQW RI ODNH ZKLWHÀVK LQ WKH *UHDW /DNHV RFFXUV RQ D VWRFN E\VWRFN EDVLV ZLWKRXW FURVVMXULVGLFWLRQDO FRRSHUDWLRQ 7KLV W\SH RI PDQDJHPHQW LV QRW DGHTXDWH IRU DGGUHVVLQJ ODUJHVFDOH HQYLURQPHQWDOWKUHDWV VXFK DV FOLPDWHFKDQJH Management should shift to more regional governance which encourages landscapeOHYHOFRQVHUYDWLRQHIIRUWV:HDQWLFLSDWHWKHSURGXFWVRIWKLVUHVHDUFKEHLQJSDUWLFXODUO\ informative for ecologists, managers, policy makers, and stakeholders (e.g., commercial ÀVKHUPHQVHDIRRGFRQVXPHUVDQGFRPPXQLW\UHVLGHQWV DQGWRDVVLVWLQFRRUGLQDWLRQRI LQWHUMXULVGLFWLRQDOÀVKHULHVFRQVHUYDWLRQHIIRUWVDQGKDUYHVWVWUDWHJLHVIRUODNHZKLWHÀVK and their ecosystems in the face of changing global climatic conditions.

7KLVVWXG\ZDVPDGHIRUWKH&RORPELDQ3DFLÀF2FHDQ &32 ZKHUHWKHPLJUDWLRQRI WKH ,QWHUWURSLFDO &RQYHUJHQFH =RQH ,7&=  LQÁXHQFHV RQ WKH G\QDPLF RI LWV ZDWHUV 7KHLQÁXHQFHRIWKHPLJUDWLRQRIWKH,7&=RQWKHFOLPDWLFYDULDELOLW\RIWKHXSZHOOLQJ vertical velocity (Vz) and the spatial-temporal behavior of upwelling spots over the &32ZDVGHWHUPLQHG7KLVLQÁXHQFHZDVFRUURERUDWHGE\WKHSUHVHQFHRIFKORURSK\OO A in the upwelling zones. Vz values calculated for the period 1971-2000 were used. The chlorophyll A content was extracted of satellite images for 1997-2000. A comparison between the upwelling zones distribution, the migration of ITCZ and chlorophyll A was made. This comparison was based on the canonical correlation between variables of three XSZHOOLQJIRFXVHVDQGDFRDVWDOXSZHOOLQJ7KHÀUVWIRFXVZDVORFDWHGEHWZHHQÝ: DQGÝÝÝÝ1WKHVHFRQGRQHEHWZHHQÝ:DQGÝÝÝÝ1WKHWKLUGEHWZHHQ Ý:DQGÝÝÝÝ18SZHOOLQJFRDVWDO]RQHZDVORFDWHGRQÝÝDQGÝ17KLV work showed that while the ITCZ is far from the CPO, the upwelling is favored. It was determined that, when the ITCZ is on the region, the upwelling is attenuated due to weak winds. It was corroborated that chlorophyll A concentration is high in every month throughout coastal upwelling and around three upwelling focuses. This study allows us to conclude that understanding the change in the intensity of upwelling and chlorophyll $FRQFHQWUDWLRQGXHWRPLJUDWLRQRIWKH,7&=LVWKHÀUVWVWHSWRLQFUHDVHRXUFDSDFLW\ to predict the impacts of the climate in the distribution of marine ecosystems and their UHVRXUFHV7KLVÀUVWVWHSDOORZVVWDUWLQJLQYHVWLJDWLRQVDERXWUHFRJQLWLRQRISHULRGDQG SODFHFRQGXFLYHWRVXVWDLQDEOHÀVKLQJLQUHJLRQVLQÁXHQFHGE\FRQYHFWLYHV\VWHPV DV IZCT.

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&DWFKSUHGLFWLRQVLQVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWDQGPDQDJHPHQWRILQYHUWHEUDWHÀVKHULHV using pre-recruit abundance; case studies from Western Australia Caputi, NickGH/HVWDQJ6LPRQ+DUW$QWKRQ\.DQJDV0HUYL-RKQVWRQ'DQLHOOH 'HSDUWPHQWRI)LVKHULHV:HVWHUQ$XVWUDOLD$XVWUDOLD

Effects of Ecological Condition on the Fluctuations of Shrimp Fishing, in the Persian Gulf and Strategic Approaches Towards Marine Food Security Aein Jamshid, Khosrow; Khorshidian, Kambouzia ,UDQ6KULPS5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH,UDQ,VODPLF5HSXEOLFRI

Reliable catch predictions based on pre-recruit abundance has proven valuable in the VWRFN DVVHVVPHQW DQG PDQDJHPHQW RI LQYHUWHEUDWH ÀVKHULHV LQ :HVWHUQ$XVWUDOLD 7KH YDOXHRIWKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVLVKLJKOLJKWHGXVLQJVL[FDVHVWXGLHVURFNOREVWHUSHDUOR\VWHU DEDORQHSUDZQVFDOORSDQGEOXHVZLPPHUFUDE7KHSUHGLFWLRQWHFKQLTXHVLQFOXGH D  abundance of puerulus (post-larval stage) used in prediction of rock lobster catches 3-4 years ahead; (b) abundance of 0+ and 1+ pearl oyster piggyback spat measured on commercial shell that predict catches 4-6 years ahead; (c) dive survey of 0+ and 1+ Roe’s abalone that predict densities of commercial-sized abalone 4 years ahead; (d) trawl surveys of prawn and scallop abundance that predict catches 1-4 months ahead; and (e) trawl survey of 0+ blue swimmer crab abundance that predict catches 3-6 months ahead. These predictions can be used in the stock assessments by providing reliable recruitment indices for future abundance estimation. They are also used in management decision UXOHV WR HQVXUH WKDW ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW RU FDWFK TXRWDV DUH VHW VR WKDW DGHTXDWH EUHHGLQJ stock is maintained. This enables pro-active management of stocks based on predicted DEXQGDQFHZKLFKDYRLGVWKHSLWIDOORIKHDY\ÀVKLQJRQSRRUUHFUXLWFODVVHVZKLFKLVD FRPPRQFDXVHRIUHFUXLWPHQWRYHUÀVKLQJ7KHVWXG\HPSKDVLVHVWKHDGYDQWDJHVRIFDWFK predictions based on pre-recruit abundance compared to environmental variables and WKHQHHGIRUFRVWHIIHFWLYHSUHUHFUXLWPRQLWRULQJDVORQJWHUPGDWDLVUHTXLUHG7KHSUH recruit abundance of 0+ and 1+ enable an assessment of factors affecting the year-class VWUHQJWKDQGLGHQWLÀFDWLRQRISRVVLEOHFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSOLFDWLRQVDQGHDUO\GHWHFWLRQ RIRYHUÀVKLQJ

Bushehr is one of the 31 provinces of Iran, located at 28° 55Å(minute) E 50° 50Å(minute) E in the northern coastline of the Persian Gulf. Shrimp stocks migrate to Bushehr waters in the late of spring and the catch season are permitted during August to September. They move to the offshore from November to early of April to produce the next generation.

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7UHQGVLQODQGLQJVRIÀVKVSHFLHVSRWHQWLDOO\DIIHFWHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJHVLQ 3RUWXJXHVHÀVKHULHV Teixeira, Célia M.1; Gamito, Rita1; Leitão, Francisco2&DEUDO+HQULTXH11; Erzini, Karim2; Costa, Maria J.1 1 &HQWURGH2FHQRJUDÀD)DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDVGD8QLYHUVLGDGHGH/LVERD3RUWXJDO 2 &HQWURGH&LrQFLDVGR0DU8QLYHUVLGDGHGR$OJDUYH3RUWXJDO

Climate and community diversity shape life history and sustainable harvest rates of top predators in limnetic ecosystems Shuter, Brian1; Lester, Nigel2*LDFRPLQL+HQULTXH1; Abrams, Peter1 1 8QLYHUVLW\RI7RURQWR&DQDGD22QWDULR0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV&DQDGD

7KHÀVKHULHVVWRFNVLQ%XVKHKUSURYLQFHDUHGHFOLQHGE\DIIHFWLQJWKHQDWXUDOSDUDPHWHUV VXFK DV ÁXFWXDWLRQ LQ HFRORJLFDO DQG ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV JOREDO ZDUPLQJ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH KXPDQ IDFWRUV VXFK DV XQIDYRUDEOH PDQDJHPHQW RI ÀVKHULHV VWRFNV WUDGLWLRQDO VWUXFWXUH RI ÀVKLQJ RYHUÀVKLQJ LQDSSURSULDWH DQG LQDGHTXDWH SROLFLHV RI restocking plans, and unsustainable development of industrial zones and increase of the pollutions. On the basis of this study, the most important parameters which affecting the VKULPSVWRFNVLVÁXFWXDWLRQRIDLUWHPSHUDWXUHDQGZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV $ VHYHUH GURXJKW LV DIIHFWHG WKH ÀVKHULHV VHFWRUV LQ ,UDQ GXULQJ  %HFDXVH of the 2010 El-Nino, the summer 2010 was the warmest condition in recent decade in the world. The total shrimp catch of Bushehr province was declined from 1831 tons in 2007 to 847 tons in 2010. The annual precipitation reduced from 249 mm to 107 mm and the average of air temperature in the coastal of Bushehr province from November to June months, increased from 22.20 to 23.60 100m is still relatively abundant. The collapse of some coastal sub-populations appears to be DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKÀVKLQJPRUWDOLWLHVLQWKHVWRVDVZHOODVPDMRUGRZQZDUG VKLIWVLQPDWXUDWLRQUHDFWLRQQRUPV'LIIHUHQFHVLQWKHDEXQGDQFHDPRQJVXESRSXODWLRQV KDVOHGÀVKHUVWRGLVSXWHUHSRUWHGVWRFNWUHQGVKLJKOLJKWLQJWKHQHHGIRUVXESRSXODWLRQ region based advice. Management is starting to recognise the importance of population structure and has implemented a spawning closure to protect the smallest west coast sub-population in the Clyde. However, the recovery of many other coastal components is unlikely to be rapid even with effort reduction due to the limited straying among sub-populations. As such it is clear that for management to promote sustainability and UHVLOLHQFHLQÀVKVWRFNVWKHUHPXVWEHPRUHVWULQJHQWFRQWURORQWKHVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI ÀVKHU\HIIRUWLQVSHFLHVH[KLELWLQJÀQHOHYHOVRISRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUH

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Validation of otolith chemistry as an indicator of movement, connectivity and stock structure in North Sea plaice Sturrock, Anna1; Trueman, Clive1; Hunter, Ewan2 1 8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKDPSWRQ8QLWHG.LQJGRP2&HQWUHIRUWKH(QYLURQPHQW)LVKHULHV and Aquaculture Science, United Kingdom

9DULDELOLW\RIRWROLWKHOHPHQWDOVLJQDWXUHVLQEODFNURFNÀVK 6HEDVWHVLQHUPLV  populations in Japanese central coast Ruano, Miguel; Aoki, Ichiro 7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI7RN\R-DSDQ :KLOH LW LV WKRXJKW WKDW 6HEDVWHV LQHUPLV VSDZQV LQ RIIVKRUH FRDVWDO ZDWHUV ZLWK WKH MXYHQLOH QXUVHU\ SKDVH RFFXUULQJ SULPDULO\ LQ VKDOORZ LQVKRUH ZDWHUV LW LV XQFOHDU ZKHWKHU WKH MXYHQLOHV WKDW UHFUXLW WR GLIIHUHQW LQVKRUH QXUVHU\ DUHDV DUH GHULYHG IURP different spawning sources and also which inshore nursery areas are important sources RIUHFUXLWVWRWKHDGXOWVSDZQLQJSRSXODWLRQVDQGÀVKHULHVLQGLIIHUHQWFRDVWDOUHJLRQV

7KHPDQDJHPHQWRIIXOO\PDULQHÀVKLVFRPSOLFDWHGE\PLJUDWLRQVWUDWHJLHVWKDWDUHRIWHQ SRRUO\XQGHUVWRRGRQDUHJLRQDORUVWRFNVSHFLÀFOHYHO7UDGLWLRQDOO\PLJUDWLRQSDWKZD\V are studied with mark-recapture experiments, which may be expensive or biased by WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH ÀVKLQJ ÁHHW 2WROLWK PLFURFKHPLVWU\ KDV EHHQ SURSRVHG DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH PHWKRG WR UHWURVSHFWLYHO\ LGHQWLI\ KDELWDW XVH LQ ZLOG PDULQH ÀVK 2WROLWKV offer a number of key advantages over applied tags and other natural markers, with incremental growth producing a temporally-resolved chemical record of the conditions H[SHULHQFHG E\ WKH ÀVK RYHU LWV HQWLUH OLIHWLPH ,I YDOLGDWHG RWROLWK PLFURFKHPLVWU\ ZRXOGKDYHVLJQLÀFDQWDSSOLFDWLRQVIRULPSURYLQJPDQDJHPHQWRIPL[HGVWRFNPLJUDWRU\ ÀVKHULHV EXW LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI FKHPLFDO VLJQDOV LV FRPSOLFDWHG E\ LQWHUSOD\ EHWZHHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG SK\VLRORJLFDO LQÁXHQFHV 1RUWK 6HD SODLFH 3OHXURQHFWHV SODWHVVD) comprise a spatially structured population, with seasonal migrations between adult spawning and feeding grounds. Here we report the results of two studies relating otolith and blood chemistry to known water compositions in experimental and wild plaice WDJJHG ZLWK HOHFWURQLF GDWD VWRUDJH WDJV '67V  7KH H[SHULPHQWDO SRSXODWLRQ DOORZV XVWRDVVHVVSK\VLRORJLFDOHIIHFWVRQRWROLWKFKHPLVWU\LQÀVKZLWKQRPLJUDWLRQDQGWKH WDJJHGÀVKDOORZXVWRFRPSDUHFKDQJHVLQRWROLWKFRPSRVLWLRQZLWKNQRZQRUSUHGLFWHG environmental conditions experienced during natural migratory and reproductive cycles. %ULHÁ\WKHUHVXOWVGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWFHUWDLQHOHPHQWV HJ%DDQG/L DUHPRUHIDLWKIXO UHFRUGHUVRIDPELHQWZDWHUFKHPLVWU\WKDQRWKHUV HJ&XDQG=Q :HXVHWKHVHGDWDWR reconstruct individual movements of plaice within the North Sea and into the east English &KDQQHO ,&(6 6XEDUHD ,9 DQG 'LYLVLRQ 9,,G UHVSHFWLYHO\  :H WKHQ FRPSDUH RXU estimates of mixing rates among management zones with those inferred by conventional WDJVDQG'67VDQGGLVFXVVWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVUHODWLYHWRH[LVWLQJPDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHV )LQDOO\ ZH GLVFXVV IXWXUH SRVVLEOH DSSOLFDWLRQV RI RWROLWK FKHPLVWU\ ZLWKLQ ÀVKHULHV management, including their potential uses for forecasting population responses to climate-related habitat shifts.

7KH FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI ÀVK RWROLWKV UHÁHFWV YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI WKH KDELWDW LH ZDWHU FKHPLVWU\ WHPSHUDWXUH VDOLQLW\  9DULDWLRQ LQ RWROLWK FKHPLVWU\ DPRQJ ÀVK FDQ therefore be used to infer geographic or environmental separation for particular periods RIOLIHDQGLVQRZEHLQJFRPPRQO\XVHGWRVWXG\WKHSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHMXYHQLOHDGXOW FRQQHFWLYLW\ODUYDOGLVSHUVDOPLJUDWLRQDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOKLVWRULHVRIÀVKHVDQGVRPH DLPVDUHUHJDUGHGWRWKLVVWXG\

41

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b)

%ODFNURFNÀVKZHUHFROOHFWHGDW0LXUD3HQLQVXOD 6DMLPDED\DQG$EXUDWVXER bay) and also in Tokyo Bay, central Japan. The sagittal otoliths were aged by microstructure analysis and decontaminated for a microchemistry analysis using ICP-AES.

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Concerning to microchemistry analysis it was possible to observe differences in several elements among the study areas, in some cases the full range of HOHPHQWV SUHVHQWHG KLJK GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ DQG UHÁHFWHG WKH VSDWLDO SDWWHUQV for coastal communities, It seemed that the temporal variation of elemental signature for S. inermis had high variability among the respective cohorts from the same settlement area and from different areas. In 2008, otolith Mn/Ca was determinant for this discrimination and in 2009 Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca and Fe/Ca were WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWHOHPHQWVFRQFHUQLQJWRWKLVDQDO\VLV:DWHUWHPSHUDWXUHDQG VDOLQLW\VHHPHGWREHUHODWHGWRVSHFLÀFFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHWKUHHVWXG\DUHDVWKDW are associated with distinct otolith signatures observed in multivariate approach. 7KH UHVXOWV VXSSRUWHG WKH VHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH:HVWHUQ FRDVW RI 0LXUD 3HQLQVXOD ÀVKHU\UHJLRQIURPWKHUHJLRQFORVHWR7RN\R%D\IRUPDQDJHPHQWSXUSRVHV

Oral Presentations PSA6.11

PSA6.12

Natal origins of Atlantic Salmon from the Adour Basin using Multi elemental composition and strontium isotope ratios of otoliths Martin, Jean1; Bareille, Gilles2; Pecheyran, Christophe2; Berail, Sylvain2'RQDUG Olivier2 1 CNRS, France; 2CNRS UMR 5254, France

*HQHWLFGLYHUVLW\LQÀVKSRSXODWLRQVLVWKUHDWHQHGE\KDUYHVWLQJSDWWHUQV Heath, Michael1; Preedy, Katharine F2; Culling, Mark A.3&UR]LHU:DOWHU:4; Fox, Clive J.5:LOOLDP6&*XUQH\2+XWFKLQVRQ:LOOLDP)6; Nielsen, Einar E7; O’Sullivan, Martha85LJKWRQ'DYLG$96SHLUV'RXJODV&2; Taylor, Martin I.10; :ULJKW3HWHU-8; Carvalho, Gary R.11 1 8QLYHUVLW\RI6WUDWKFO\GH8QLWHG.LQJGRP2Marine Population Modelling Group, United Kingdom; 3%DQJRU8QLYHUVLW\8QLWHG.LQJGRP4$JUL)RRGDQG%LRVFLHQFHV ,QVWLWXWH8QLWHG.LQJGRP56FRWWLVK$VVRFLDWLRQIRU0DULQH6FLHQFH6FRWWLVK0DULQH ,QVWLWXWH8QLWHG.LQJGRP6(YROXWLRQDU\%LRORJ\*URXS8QLWHG.LQJGRP7National ,QVWLWXWHRI$TXDWLF5HVRXUFHV'HQPDUN8Marine Scotland Science, United Kingdom; 9 &HQWUHIRU(QYLURQPHQW8QLWHG.LQJGRP100ROHFXODU(FRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHV*HQHWLFV Laborator, United Kingdom; 110ROHFXODU(FRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHV*HQHWLFV/DERUDWRU\ United Kingdom

6U&D%D&D6U%DDQG6U6UVLJQDWXUHVUHFRUGHGLQFDOFLÀHGWLVVXHVRIÀVKHVKDYH WKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHVROYHRXWVWDQGLQJTXHVWLRQVDERXWGLVSHUVDOUDWHVRIQDWDOKRPLQJDQG migration dynamics of a wide variety of anadromous and catadromous species. Because otoliths are metabolically inert, accrete discrete layers incrementally, and incorporate some isotopes and elements in proportion to their ambient abundance, they can serve as XVHIXOQDWXUDOWDJVWKDWUHÁHFWWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOKLVWRU\RIDÀVK,QRUGHUWRUHFRQVWUXFW early life-histories of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) such as rates of natal homing or FRQWULEXWLRQ RI KDWFKHU\ EUHHG ÀVK RQ WKH QDWLYH ZLOG VWRFNV ZLWKLQ WKH ODUJH$GRXU basin system, a spatial baseline of isotopic and elemental signatures was developed by WDUJHWLQJ 6U6U DQG FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI 6U %D DQG &D ZLWKLQ RWROLWKV RI MXYHQLOHV accreted in natal streams (catchment basin of Oloron and Pau rivers) and hatcheries using LA-ICP-MS and LA-MC-ICP-MS. The combination of three elemental (Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca DQG6U%D DQG6ULVRWRSLFUDWLR 6U6U VLJQDWXUHVLQRWROLWKV\LHOGHGKLJKO\GLVWLQFW ULYHUVSHFLÀFVLJQDWXUHVDQGZDVXVHGVXFFHVVIXOO\DVQDWXUDOWDJVWRLGHQWLI\ÀUVWDGXOW ÀVKIURPKDWFKHU\RUQDWXUDOO\VSDZQHGVRXUFHVVHFRQGULYHUVRIJURZWKGXULQJMXYHQLOH VWDJH:HVXJJHVWWKDWJHRORJLFDOO\GHULYHGÀQJHUSULQWVOLNH6ULVRWRSHV\LHOGFULWLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHKDELWDWXVHDQGFRQGLWLRQDOEHKDYLRUVRILQGLYLGXDOV:KHQDSSOLHG to globally imperiled species like Atlantic salmon, this approach may help to inform management practices.

Genetic diversity is an important property of animal populations ensuring their ability to withstand environmental change through the “portfolio effect”. However, diversity is WKUHDWHQHGLQPDQ\H[SORLWHGSRSXODWLRQVDQGSDUWLFXODUO\LQPDULQHÀVK:HGHYHORSHG a genetically informed spatial model of sub-population dynamics for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea to determine the threat posed by different harvesting patterns. Following contemporary practice, catch limits for cod are set at the scale of the ZKROH1RUWK6HD+RZHYHURXUPRGHOVKRZVWKDWÀVKLQJPRUWDOLW\UDWHVZKLFKDSSHDU sustainable at this large geographic scale risk the depletion of less productive population XQLWVDWÀQHUVFDOHVVLPSO\GXHWRFKDQJHVLQWKHFXUUHQWVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIÀVKLQJ HIIRUW 7KH PRGHO RIIHUV LQVLJKW RQ GRZQVFDOLQJ SHUPLWWHG UDWHV RI UHJLRQDO ÀVKLQJ mortality to strike a balance between maximising a sustainable yield and conserving genetic diversity.

PSA6.13

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,QWHJUDWHGVHDVFDSHJHQRPLFVWRDQDO\VHWKHVWRFNVWUXFWXUHRIVHDPXOOHW 0XJLO cephalus) in eastern Australian waters Krück, Nils C1; Treml, Eric1,QQHV'DYLG2; Tibbetts, Ian1; Ovenden, Jennifer2 1 7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI4XHHQVODQG$XVWUDOLD24XHHQVODQG*RYHUQPHQW$XVWUDOLD

&RPSOH[SRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHLQVSHFLHVZLWKKLJKJHQHÁRZ/HVVRQVIURPJHQHWLF assessment of stock structure in exploited snappers 3RUWQR\'DYLG; Gold, John 7H[DV$ 08QLYHUVLW\8QLWHG6WDWHV

(IIHFWLYH ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH OLJKW RI LQVXIÀFLHQW VFLHQWLÀF NQRZOHGJH DQG resources can be challenging, even regarding some highly commercial species. Here we report on a study of the migratory sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) in eastern Australian waters, where it is co-managed across federal state boundaries. The study was initiated to reduce uncertainty about spatial scales of management by integrating modern genetics and biophysical modelling to analyse possibly overlooked population differentiation. Existing spatial management arrangements in the study area are based on anecdotal evidence of long-distance spawning migrations and assumed panmixia, ZKLOH UHFHQW VFLHQWLÀF VWXGLHV XVLQJ SDUDVLWH DQDO\VLV HDVWHUQ$XVWUDOLD  DQG JHQHWLFV QRUWKHUQ3DFLÀF LQGLFDWHUHJLRQDOSRSXODWLRQVDQGFU\SWLFVSHFLHV,QWKLVVWXG\DVHW RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\VLQJOHQXFOHRWLGHSRO\PRUSKLVPV 613V LGHQWLÀHGWKURXJKRXWWKH genomes of sea mullet is validated to pursue population structure analysis in eastern Australian waters in more detail. This empirical genetic investigation follows up on comprehensive theoretical population structure analysis using two successive models - (1) a spatially explicit, biophysical model of population connectivity, which simulates WKHGLVSHUVDORIHJJVDQGODUYDHE\RFHDQFXUUHQWVDQG  D613DOOHOHIUHTXHQF\PRGHO which simulates spatial genetic variation based on connectivity matrixes produced by PRGHO2EVHUYHGDQGSUHGLFWHGDOOHOHIUHTXHQFLHVRI613VDUHFRQWUDVWHGWRH[SORUH different possible spawning migration and population differentiation scenarios. Study outcomes are used to inform spatial units for management and conservation of sea PXOOHW7KHVWXG\SURYLGHVRQHRIWKHÀUVWH[DPSOHVRIDFRXSOHGRFHDQRJUDSKLFJHQHWLF approach that integrates next-generation/genomic technologies for cost-effective, but VHQVLWLYHSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQDO\VLVLQDQRQPRGHOÀVKHULHVVSHFLHV

0DQDJHPHQW RI KLJKO\ H[SORLWHG PDULQH UHVRXUFHV QHFHVVLWDWHV DQ DFFXUDWH GHÀQLWLRQ of stock structure because different stocks (populations or subpopulations) may possess local or sub-regional adaptations that lead to differences in important life-history parameters such as growth, fecundity, disease resistance, and time-to-maturity. Failure to recognize such stocks potentially could result in localized extinction. Identifying stock structure based on genetics can be problematic for marine species with high dispersal FDSDELOLW\ EHFDXVH VWRFN VWUXFWXUH DQG JHQH ÁRZ W\SLFDOO\ DUH HYDOXDWHG E\ XVLQJ VHOHFWLYHO\ QHXWUDO PROHFXODU PDUNHUV LH JHQHWLF ORFL WKDW DUH QHLWKHU LQÁXHQFHG E\ natural selection nor linked to genes impacting adaptive traits related to life history or ÀWQHVV7KHUHVXOWLVWKDWJHQHWLFKRPRJHQHLW\REVHUYHGEHWZHHQRUDPRQJJHRJUDSKLF VDPSOHVPD\QRWQHFHVVDULO\UHÁHFWKRPRJHQHLW\LQJHQHVDIIHFWLQJOLIHKLVWRU\DQGRU ÀWQHVV WUDLWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ HYHQWV LQ WKH SDVW HJ PLJUDWLRQ SRSXODWLRQ H[SDQVLRQ RU GHFOLQH RIWHQ FDQ OHDG WR YLRODWLRQV RI HTXLOLEULXP DVVXPSWLRQV LQKHULW LQ WUDGLWLRQDO SRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVPRGHOV:KHQDFRPELQDWLRQRIWUDGLWLRQDO)67EDVHGDSSURDFKHV and spatial analyses, based on both alleles sharing and distance measures, as well as demographic analyses are employed, important aspects of cryptic population structure PD\ EH UHYHDOHG$ UHYLHZ RI VWRFNVWUXFWXUH DVVHVVPHQW LQ ÀYH H[SORLWHG VSHFLHV RI VQDSSHUV /XWMDQLGDH  LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ$WODQWLF GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW HYHQ IRU VSHFLHV ZLWK VLPLODU OLIH KLVWRULHV SDWWHUQV RI SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH YDU\ UHTXLULQJ UREXVW DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRGRORJLHVWRGHWHFWÀQHVFDOHGLIIHUHQFHVWKDWSUHFDXWLRQDU\ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW strategies need to consider.

42

Oral Presentations PSA6.15

PSA6.16

/DUJHRFHDQVVXEWOHJHQHWFLVWUXFWXUH7KHFDVHRIDKHDYLO\H[SORLWHGÁDWÀVK Volckaert, Filip1; Maes, Gregory15LMQVGRUS$GULDDQ2; Lacroix, Geneviève3'LRSHUH Eveline1; Cuveliers, Els1 1 .DWKROLHNH8QLYHUVLWHLW/HXYHQ%HOJLXP2:DJHQLQJHQ,0$5(61HWKHUODQGV3Royal %HOJLDQ,QVWLWXWHRI1DWXUDO6FLHQFHV%HOJLXP

Population structure in leading edge and rear ends in a northwards shifting species, the corkwing wrasse, Symphodus melops Knutsen, Halvor ,QVWLWXWHRI0DULQH5HVHDUFK1RUZD\ The spatial genetic population structure in corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) were characterized from samples along a climatic transect from the coast of Iberia WR 6FDQGLQDYLD 0LFURVDWHOOLWH '1$ UHYHDOHG D PDUNHG JHQHWLF GLFKRWRP\ ZLWK VLJQLÀFDQWO\ KLJKHU OHYHOV RI JHQHWLF YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH VRXWKHUQ UHJLRQ 3RUWXJDO DQG VRXWKZHVWHUQ 8.  DV FRPSDUHG WR WKH 1RUWK 6HD EDVLQ 1RUZD\ DQG 6ZHGHQ  7KLV ÀQGLQJ FRUUHODWHV ZLWK D UHFHQW VWXG\ RQ PLWRFKRQGULDO '1$ YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH VDPH samples, and indicates a pronounced founder effect during post-glacial or later (re) colonization of northern European waters. On smaller geographical scales, we observe genetic differentiation among sites within both the southern and the northern regions, suggesting local populations with limited connectivity among them. Findings of VLJQLÀFDQW SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXULQJ LQ WKH ZUDVVH DUH DOUHDG\ SURYLGLQJ XVHIXO LQSXW WR ÀVKHU\PDQDJHPHQWLQ1RUZHJLDQZDWHUVZKHUHWKHVSHFLHVFXUUHQWO\LVWUDQVORFDWHGWR other parts of the country and used as a biological pest control against salmonid parasites LQPDULQHÀVKIDUPV

:HDN ERXQGDULHV EHWZHHQ PDULQH KDELWDWV KDYH OHDG WR WKH SHUFHSWLRQ WKDW ÀVK SRSXODWLRQVH[SHULHQFHDQRSHQKDELWDW)RUORQJWKLVVHHPHGFRQÀUPHGE\HYLGHQFHIURP JHQHWLF PDUNHUV +RZHYHU QRYHO PROHFXODU PDUNHUV EHQHÀWLQJ IURP PHWKRGRORJLFDO advances in genomics, combined with microchemical tracers and modeling studies SURYLGH HYLGHQFH WR WKH FRQWUDU\ :H KDYH OHDUQHG IRU WKH ÁDWÀVK VROH LQKDELWLQJ WKH Northeast Atlantic Ocean and heavily exploited at about 40,000 metric tons annually WKDW  WKHJHQHWLFVWUXFWXUHRISRSXODWLRQVGLIIHUVPHDVXUDEO\RQDODWLWXGLQDOJUDGLHQW  \HDUVRILQWHQVLYHÀVKLQJKDYHQRW \HW PHDVXUDEO\LPSDFWHGHIIHFWLYHSRSXODWLRQ VL]H  LQGLYLGXDOÀVK DQGÀVKSURGXFWV FDQEHWUDFHGEDFNWRWKHLUVRXUFHSRSXODWLRQ FRQÀUPLQJWKDWGLVSHUVDOLVVSDWLDOO\FRQVWUDLQHG  WKHOHYHORIFRQQHFWLYLW\EHWZHHQ spawning grounds varies annually in response to environmental conditions; (5) annual variation in recruitment may lead to stronger genetic differences than spatial patterns; and (6) populations are adapted to environmental conditions on a regional scale. These ÀQGLQJV DUH EHLQJ LPSOHPHQWHG IRU ÀVKHULHV HQIRUFHPHQW ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DQG food safety.

PSA6.17

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Small scale spatial variation in spawning schedules in Pecten maximus Hold, Natalie; Hinz, Hilmar; Murray, Lee; Kaiser, Michel %DQJRU8QLYHUVLW\8QLWHG.LQJGRP 0DQDJHPHQWRIFRPPHUFLDO3HFWLQLGVSHFLHVKDVRIWHQEHHQGLIÀFXOWZLWKPDQ\VSHFLHV XQGHUJRLQJERRPDQGEXVWF\FOHVGXHWRYDULDEOHUHFUXLWPHQWDQGKLJKÀVKLQJSUHVVXUH 0DQ\VFDOORSÀVKHULHVDUHVWLOOGHSHQGDQWRQWKHUHFUXLWLQJ\HDUFODVVOHDYLQJWKHPDW risk of commercial collapse if climatic or other driving forces result in poor recruitment. Consideration of spatial variability in drivers of spawning and recruitment is essential for effective management. This is especially true for relatively sedentary benthic species, VXFKDV3HFWLQLGVGXHWRWKHLQDELOLW\RIDGXOWVWRUHORFDWHWRÀQGIRRGVXLWDEOHKDELWDWRU mates. Here we will be considering spatial variation in reproductive schedules of Pecten PD[LPXV around the Isle of Man, the environmental forces which drive them and the LPSOLFDWLRQVRIVPDOOVFDOHVSDWLDOYDULDWLRQLQWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIWKLVLPSRUWDQWÀVKHU\

7KH$WODQWLF EOXHÀQ WXQD 7KXQQXV WK\QQXV  LV DQ H[WUDRUGLQDU\ ÀVK WKDW KDV DPD]HG KXPDQLW\VLQFHDQFLHQWWLPHV+RZHYHUWKHFRQWLQXRXVRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQRIWKLVÀVKHU\ particularly in the Mediterranean Sea, could result in a total collapse of this resource. &XUUHQWO\WKLVVSHFLHVLVPDQDJHGDVWZRVWRFNV:HVWHUQ$WODQWLFDQG0HGLWHUUDQHDQ Eastern Atlantic, with a recognized genetic differentiation between them. On the other hand, the population structure within the Mediterranean Sea is still unclear. The biological data supports the idea of two separate populations in the eastern and ZHVWHUQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQEDVLQV+RZHYHUQXFOHDUPLFURVDWHOOLWHDQGPLWRFKRQGULDO'1$ PW'1$ DQDO\VHVRIWZRVDPSOHVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHVHWZREDVLQVUHVXOWLQDODFNRI heterogeneity. A comparison of these results with previously published studies reveals VRPHGLVFUHSDQFLHV:HKDYHUHYLHZHGDOOJHQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQWHVWVSXEOLVKHGWRGDWH WKDW LQFOXGH VDPSOHV ZLWKLQ WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ 2I WKHVH DERXW  JDYH VLJQLÀFDQW GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQZKLOHWKHUHPDLQLQJZHUHQRQVLJQLÀFDQW%XWZKHQRQO\QXFOHDU based loci were considered, genetic differentiation was detected in up to 73% of the FDVHV ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH VLJQLÀFDQW )67 RI RQO\  ZKHUHDV WKH DYHUDJH VLJQLÀFDQW )67 RI WKH PW'1$EDVHG VWXGLHV ZDV VLJQLÀFDQWO\ KLJKHU   +RZHYHU LQ VRPH FDVHV LW LV GLIÀFXOW WR UHFRQFLOH WKH ELRORJ\ RI WKH VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV VXJJHVWLQJ JHQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ,QFRQFOXVLRQDOWKRXJKLWLVQRW\HWSRVVLEOHWRUHDFKDGHÀQLWLYH conclusion about the population structure, but considering all biological and genetic data, we suggest an independent management approach for each basin to avoid the impact of a type II error that could lead to the possible loss of the regional subpopulations.

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Oral Presentations PSA6.19

PSA7.01

(IIHFWVRISUHGDWLRQUHIXJLDRQWKHVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIOLQNHGSUHGDWRUSUH\ÀVKHULHV :LOEHUJ0LFKDHO1; Latour, Robert2; Miller, Thomas1 1 8QLYHUVLW\RI0DU\ODQG&HQWHUIRU(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH8QLWHG6WDWHV2College of :LOOLDP 0DU\8QLWHG6WDWHV

Humans - the missing jigsaw piece Fulton, Elizabeth &6,52$XVWUDOLD The dualism of nature and humanity has been engrained in western intellectual thought since the earliest of European records. This concept of humanity as separate to nature infuses thought and culture and even colours approaches to science and management. Much of science’s success has been built on a reductionist foundation. Systems science LV EHFRPLQJ PRUH ÀUPO\ HVWDEOLVKHG EXW DSSURDFKHV WR UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQW RIWHQ still retain a division between biophysical and anthropocentric with tenuous links bridging the divide; this is perhaps most evident in modelling. There is a long history RIHFRQRPLFDOO\IRFXVHGPRGHOVDQGDQHTXDOO\ORQJKLVWRU\RIELRSK\VLFDORQHV(QG to-end (or whole-of-system) models exist, and more are being constructed all the time, but they are typically still only used to build science foundations; their management uses still nascent. Nevertheless they have highlighted how management will continue to IDFHDKLJKULVNRIIDLOXUHRUXQLQWHQGHGFRQVHTXHQFHVXQOHVVWKHKXPDQMLJVDZSLHFH is explicitly integrated into analyses of the system. There are substantial challenges to modelling human behaviour, a greater proportion of “unknown unknowns” that can VLJQLÀFDQWO\LPSDFWXSRQV\VWHPUHVSRQVHV1HYHUWKHOHVVFRQWLQXLQJWRRPLWWKHKXPDQ dimension and focus only on stocks and habitats is like trying to drive a car through a paint-splattered windscreen; possible, but not advisable.

Many species have spatially complex life histories, which likely have important LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU PDQDJHPHQW +RZHYHU ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW RIWHQ RSHUDWHV RQ large spatial scales and ignores much of the substructure of stocks. This is especially true in predator-prey systems, where predation refugia have been hypothesized as an important stabilizing force for population persistence (i.e., foraging arena hypothesis). :HFRQGXFWHGDVLPXODWLRQVWXG\RIDVSDWLDOO\VWUXFWXUHGOLQNHGSUHGDWRUSUH\V\VWHP WR HYDOXDWH KRZ VSDWLDO SDWWHUQV RI ÀVKLQJ RQ SUHGDWRUV DQG SUH\ DIIHFWHG SRSXODWLRQ dynamics and resilience to perturbations. The stochastic simulation model was fashioned after striped bass (0RURQH VD[DWLOLV) and Atlantic menhaden (%UHYRRUWLD W\UDQQXV) in the western north Atlantic and included sub-stocks in several spatial areas that were OLQNHG ZLWK VHDVRQDO PLJUDWLRQ :H H[SORUHG WKH HIIHFWV RI DOWHUQDWLYH VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO ÀVKLQJ SDWWHUQV RQ SUHGDWRU DQG SUH\ VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DQG ÀVKHU\ PHWULFV :H also considered several scenarios of prey importance in which the primary prey species FRPSRVHGDQGRIWKHSUHGDWRUGLHWLQWKHDEVHQFHRIÀVKLQJ7KHVSDWLDO SDWWHUQRIÀVKLQJRQWKHSUH\KDGUHODWLYHO\OLWWOHHIIHFWRQWKHSUHGDWRUG\QDPLFVZKHQ WKHSUH\ZHUHRQO\RIWKHSUHGDWRU·VGLHW'LIIHUHQWVSDWLDOÀVKLQJSDWWHUQVJHQHUDOO\ had the same effect on prey and predator populations when migration rates among areas were high. However, when migration rates were low and the prey was highly important LQWKHGLHWRIWKHSUHGDWRUWKHVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOSDWWHUQRIÀVKLQJKDGDQHIIHFWRQSUH\ and predator sustainability.

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Evaluating the trade-offs of conservation, economic, and social objectives across a UDQJHRIÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPV Melnychuk, Michael; Banobi, Jeannette; Hilborn, Ray 8QLYHUVLW\RI:DVKLQJWRQ8QLWHG6WDWHV

Exploring the ecological, social and economic implications of management decisions %ORRPÀHOG+HOHQ; Frid, Chris 8QLYHUVLW\RI/LYHUSRRO8QLWHG.LQJGRP

)LVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW REMHFWLYHV DUH QXPHURXV²FRYHULQJ HFRORJLFDO HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO GLPHQVLRQV²DQG RIWHQ FRQÁLFWLQJ $V FRQVHUYDWLRQ WDUJHWV RI H[SORLWHG SRSXODWLRQVDUHW\SLFDOO\QHDUWKHTXDQWLWLHVWKDWPD[LPL]HORQJWHUPVXVWDLQDEOH\LHOG and greatest economic gains typically occur near (but slightly more conservative than) WKHVHVDPHTXDQWLWLHVZHVKRXOGQRWQHFHVVDULO\H[SHFWWUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQFRQVHUYDWLRQ DQGHFRQRPLFREMHFWLYHV+RZHYHUWKHVHREMHFWLYHVPD\FRQÁLFWZLWKVRFLDOREMHFWLYHV HVSHFLDOO\ MRE FUHDWLRQ ,W LV RIWHQ GLIÀFXOW RU DW OHDVW HFRORJLFDOO\ RU VRFLDOO\ XQDFFHSWDEOH  WR VXIÀFLHQWO\ SHUWXUE D ÀVKHU\ WR ULJRURXVO\ TXDQWLI\ WKH VKDSH RI WKH WUDGHRIIVDPRQJLWVFRPSRQHQWREMHFWLYHV:HDSSURDFKWKLVSUREOHPIURPDGLIIHUHQW DQJOHDQGXVHPHWDDQDO\VLVWRTXDQWLI\WKHFURVVÀVKHU\WUDGHRIIVDPRQJFRQVHUYDWLRQ HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO REMHFWLYHV :H GUHZ VWRFNOHYHO LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP WKH UHFHQWO\ FRPSLOHG 5$0 /HJDF\ 6WRFN $VVHVVPHQW 'DWDEDVH DQG FRQVWUXFWHG LQGLFDWRUV RI FRQVHUYDWLRQREMHFWLYHV:HGUHZÀVKHU\OHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQIURPDÀVKHU\PDQDJHPHQW attributes database containing detailed socio-economic information, and constructed LQGLFDWRUVRIHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOREMHFWLYHV:HPHUJHGWKHVHGDWDEDVHVWRTXDQWLI\WKH WUDGHRIIV DPRQJ FRPSHWLQJ REMHFWLYHV DQG LGHQWLI\ SDUWLFXODU PDQDJHPHQW DWWULEXWHV WKDW LQÁ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trade-offs were strongly affected by ex-vessel prices and the proportion of research and management costs paid by industry. For valuable species, industry is willing to invest PRUHLQUHVHDUFKDQGPDQDJHPHQWFRVWVFDWFKHVDUHPDLQWDLQHGFORVHUWRTXRWDVDQG ÀVKHULHVEHFRPHPRUHHIÀFLHQWVRHPSOR\PHQWLQWHQVLW\GHFUHDVHV7KHVHUHVXOWVFRQÀUP WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW ZKLOH ELRORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF REMHFWLYHV DUH ODUJHO\ FRPSDWLEOH WKHUHDUHVLJQLÀFDQWWUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQMREFUHDWLRQDQGHLWKHUHFRQRPLFRUELRORJLFDO performance.

7KH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ (8  LV FRPPLWWHG WR PDQDJH (XURSHDQ ÀVKHULHV ZLWKLQ WKH VWUXFWXUHSURYLGHGE\WKH0DULQH6WUDWHJ\)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHEDVHGRQSURGXFWLYHÀVK stocks and healthy marine ecosystems which support economic and social sustainability. 7KH SURSRVDOV IRU WKH UHIRUP RI WKH (8 &RPPRQ )LVKHULHV 3ROLF\ VHHN WR GHOLYHU DQ HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFK WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DQG WR XVH WKLV WR UHFRQFLOH WKH WHQVLRQ EHWZHHQÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLYLW\DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQ,QWKLVSDSHUZHH[DPLQH how the three pillars of sustainability may guide a formal analysis of these trade-offs, and be used to support development of integrated and holistic marine management. Through structured interaction with stakeholders (interviews and workshops) the Making (XURSHDQ )LVKHULHV (FRV\VWHP 3ODQV 2SHUDWLRQDO 0()(32  SURMHFW KDV GHYHORSHG Fisheries Ecosystem Plans (FEPs) for three European regional seas (North Sea, North :HVW:DWHUVDQG6RXWK:HVW:DWHUV WRVXSSRUWWKHWUDQVLWLRQWRHFRV\VWHPEDVHGÀVKHULHV management. Central to the FEPs is an evaluation matrix that can be used to explore ecological, social and economic implications of different management strategies on HFRV\VWHPFRPSRQHQWV&ROODERUDWLRQDFURVVGLVFLSOLQHV ÀVKHULHVVFLHQWLVWVHFRORJLVWV VRFLDOVFLHQWLVWVDQGHFRQRPLVWV VXSSRUWHGPDWUL[GHYHORSPHQWIRUFDVHVWXG\ÀVKHULHV within each region, while engagement with a broad range of stakeholders ensured the process had credibility which, in the longer term, is likely to increase management success. Application of the matrix approach raised concerns regarding the availability DQGVXLWDELOLW\RIGDWDFXUUHQWO\FROOHFWHGIRUWKHIRUPDOÀVKHU\DGYLFHSURFHVVWRVXSSRUW ecosystem based management. Management advice should be formulated collaboratively based on the best available evidence and implemented within an adaptive regime, UHVSRQVLYH WR QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ 8OWLPDWHO\ PDQDJHPHQW GHFLVLRQV ZLOO EH PDGH RQ WKH EDVLV RI RYHUDUFKLQJ REMHFWLYHV HFRORJLFDO VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF  7UDGHRIIV DPRQJ REMHFWLYHV DUH UHTXLUHG GXH WR WKH QDWXUH RI WUDGHRIIV it may not be possible to satisfy all stakeholder groups simultaneously. However, the development and application of decision support frameworks such as that described here, can aid managers in making appropriate decisions based on the best available evidence.

44

Oral Presentations PSA7.04

PSA7.05

6HDUFKLQJIRUWKHRSWLPDOÀVKLQJHIIRUWIRUVZRUGÀVKE\.HVHQQXPDRIIVKRUH ORQJOLQHÀVKLQJLQWKHSRVWWVXQDPLUHFRYHU\ Ishimura, Gakushi +RNNDLGR8QLYHUVLW\-DSDQ

(FRORJLFDOHFRQRPLFPXOWLVSHFLHVPDQDJHPHQWRIWKH%DOWLF6HDÀVKHULHV Tradeoffs between objectives in an ecosystem context Voss, Rudi1; Schmidt, Jörn17RPF]DN0DFLHM2; Blenckner, Thorsten2; Quaas, Martin1 1 8QLYHUVLW\RI.LHO*HUPDQ\26WRFNKROP5HVLOLHQFH&HQWUH6ZHGHQ

2Q0DUFK.HVHQQXPDZKLFKLVRQHRIWKHODUJHVWÀVKLQJSRUWVLQ-DSDQKDVEHHQ VXIIHUHG GHYDVWDWHG GDPDJHV RI 7VXQDPL DQG SRVW WVXQDPL ÀUH DW WKH *UHDW 7RKRNX (DUWKTXDNH'HVSLWHORVLQJWKHPRVWRIÀVKLQJYHVVHOVRXWRIRIIVKRUHORQJOLQH YHVVHOVVXUYLYHGEHFDXVHWKH\ZHUHHQJDJHGLQÀVKLQJDFWLYLWLHVDZD\IURPWKHFRDVWDW WKHWLPHRIWKHWVXQDPL1RZWKHUHEXLOGLQJRIWKLVÀVKHU\LVDNH\IRUWKHUHFRYHU\RIWKH economy of Kesennuma area.

7KHFHQWUDO%DOWLF6HDÀVKFRPPXQLW\LVGRPLQDWHGE\WKUHHVSHFLHVRQO\LHFRGKHUULQJ DQGVSUDW7KHÀVKHU\PDLQO\FRQVLVWVRIVLQJOHVSHFLHVÀVKHULHV+RZHYHUÀVKHULHVDUH closely connected as there are strong ecological inter-connections between the species, i.e. predation by cod and competition between clupeids. Therefore, management measures WDNHQIRURQHVSHFLHVZLOOLQHYLWDEO\DIIHFWWKHRWKHUVSHFLHVDQGLWVUHODWHGÀVKHULHV:H developed and applied an age-structured ecological-economic multi-species optimisation model. This model offers the possibility to calculate optimal multi-species F-vectors for GLIIHUHQWPDQDJHPHQWREMHFWLYHV$VDUHIHUHQFHFDVHWKHPD[LPXPQHWSUHVHQWYDOXH RI WKH FRPELQHG ÀVKHULHV LV FDOFXODWHG$ ZHLJKWLQJ VFKHPH LQ WKH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ offers the possibility to calculate the actual costs of side conditions (as deviation from optimum), e.g. maintaining clupeid stocks above a limit biomass, or of maintaining a FHUWDLQDPRXQWRISURÀWLQWKHVLQJOHÀVKHULHV7KLVPRGHOKRZHYHUGRHVQRWLQFOXGHDQ ecosystem perspective. Therefore, we combine the ecological-economic model with the central Baltic Sea food-web NEST model. The ecological-economic model calculates PXOWL VSHFLHV ÀVKLQJ PRUWDOLW\ YHFWRUV WR DFKLHYH WKH PDQDJHPHQW JRDOV RU WUDGHRIIV between different goals). The F-vectors are used to drive the NEST food-web model, which will predict the future development of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This exemplary application and combination of models of different complexity allows a comparison and TXDQWLÀFDWLRQ RI WKH ULVNV WKDW NH\ LQGLFDWRUV DUH QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWHG E\ PDQDJHPHQW measures. This approach also allows taking future climatic variation into account.

7KLV VWXG\ HPSLULFDOO\ HVWLPDWHV D SURGXFWLRQ \LHOG ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW GD\V RI RSHUDWLRQ SHU WULS  PRGHO IRU WKLV ÀVKHU\ E\ FRPELQLQJ D GHPDQG PRGHO IRU VZRUGÀVK DQG DQ RSHUDWLQJFRVWPRGHO7KLVLQWHJUDWHGPRGHOLVXVHGWRH[SORUHRSWLPDOÀVKLQJHIIRUWV IRUWKHSURÀWVDQGVHQVLWLYLWLHVRISURÀWVWRIXHOSULFHFKDQJHV7KHUHVXOWGHPRQVWUDWHV explicit differences among current average efforts (41 days per trip) and optimizing HIIRUWVIRUWKHPD[LPXPSURÀWVSHUWULS GD\VSHUWULS 7KHUHVXOWVDOVRVXJJHVWWKDW DQLQFUHDVHLQIXHOSULFHZRXOGOHDGWROHVVHUPD[LPXPSURÀWDQGFRQVWULFWWKHUDQJHRI HIIRUWVIRUSRVLWLYHSURÀWV

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FLBEIA a Bio-Economic Simulation Toolbox *DUFLD'RUOHWD; Prellezo, Raul $]WL7HFQDOLD6SDLQ FLBEIA (FL Bio-Economic Impact Assessment) is an R package build on top of FLR OLEUDULHV ,W SURYLGHV D ÁH[LEOH DQG JHQHULF WRRO WR FRQGXFW %LR(FRQRPLF ,PSDFW Assessments of harvest control rule based management strategies. As usual in a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework, the package is divided in two main blocks, the operating model (OM) and the management procedure model (MPM). In turn these two blocks are divided in 3 components. The OM is formed by the biological, the ÁHHWDQGWKHFRYDULDEOHVFRPSRQHQWVDQGWKH030E\WKHREVHUYDWLRQWKHDVVHVVPHQW and the advice components.

7KH67(&) 6FLHQWLÀFWHFKQLFDODQGHFRQRPLFFRPPLWWHHRIWKH(XURSHDQFRPPLVVLRQ  H[SHUWV ZRUNLQJ JURXS RQ WKH ´'HYHORSPHQW RI WKH HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFK WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW ($)0 LQ(XURSHDQVHDVµLVUHTXHVWHGWRGHYHORSDSUDJPDWLFIHDVLELOLW\ approach to provide some useful assessments and ecosystem advices in support of ($)0 :H SUHVHQW KHUH WKH PDLQ FRQFOXVLRQV DQG WKH DSSURDFK UHFHQWO\ GHYHORSHG ZLWKLQWKLVZRUNLQJJURXS:HHVSHFLDOO\VKRZWKDWDÁHHWEDVHGDSSURDFKLVWKHSDWKZD\ to implement an effective AEFM. First, using the reference list of seven ecosystems GHÀQHG E\ 67(&) LQ WKH$WODQWLF DQG %DOWLF 6HDV D GLDJQRVWLF RQ WKH KHDOWK RI HDFK HFRV\VWHP LV SURSRVHG EDVHG RQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI ORQJ WLPHVHULHV RI FDWFK WKH DQDO\VLVRIPHDQLQGLFDWRUVRUVWRFNVWUDMHFWRULHVGHULYHGIURP,&(6VWRFNDVVHVVPHQW UHVXOWVDQGWKHDQDO\VLVRIHFRV\VWHPLQGLFDWRUV7KHQZHSUHVHQWDÁHHWEDVHGV\QWKHVLV using indicators of both the ecological impact and the economic performances of the PDMRUÁHHWVRSHUDWLQJZLWKLQHDFKHFRV\VWHP,QSDUWLFXODUDVVHVVPHQWGLDJUDPVVKRZ ZKHWKHU HDFK ÁHHW VHJPHQW RQ DYHUDJH VXVWDLQDEO\ H[SORLWV WKH VWRFNV$OWKRXJK WKH PHWKRGVWLOOQHHGVLPSURYHPHQWVDQGUHVXOWVDUHSUHOLPLQDU\GXHWRWKHSRRUTXDOLW\RI available data, the analysis shows that simple indicators can be estimated and clearly KLJKOLJKWFRQWUDVWVEHWZHHQÁHHWVHJPHQWV

7KHPRGHOLVPXOWLVWRFNPXOWLÁHHWDQGVHDVRQDODQGXQFHUWDLQW\LVLQWURGXFHGE\PHDQV of montecarlo simulation. The algorithm has been coded in a modular way to ease the FKHFNLQJDQGWKHÁH[LELOLW\RIWKHPRGHO7KHOLEUDU\SURYLGHVIXQFWLRQVWKDWGHVFULEHWKH dynamics of the different model components, under certain assumptions, and the user FKRRVHV ZKLFK RI WKH IXQFWLRQV DUH XVHG LQ HDFK FDVH VSHFLÀF PRGHO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ )XUWKHUPRUHLILQDVSHFLÀFFDVHIRUVRPHRIWKHFRPSRQHQWVWKHIXQFWLRQVSURYLGHG ZLWKLQ )/%(,$ GR QRW IXOÀOO WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV WKH XVHU FDQ FRGH WKH IXQFWLRQV WKDW DGHTXDWHO\ GHVFULEH WKH G\QDPLFV RI WKRVH FRPSRQHQWV DQG XVH WKH H[LVWLQJ RQHV IRU the others. As the user can construct its own model, selecting existing submodels and FRQVWUXFWLQJQHZRQHVZHGHÀQHLWDVDWRROER[PRUHWKDQDVDPRGHO

6XFKDQDSSURDFKFRQWULEXWHVWRSURJUHVVIURPDVWRFNEDVHGWRDÁHHWEDVHGPDQDJHPHQW ,WFRXOGFOHDUO\EHSDUWRIDIUDPHZRUNXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHZKLFKÁHHWVHJPHQWVZRXOG have to be reduced and which ones could be developed. Environmental assessments VKRXOGDOVREHXVHGWRJXLGHPDQDJHPHQWSODQVIRUÀVKLQJHIIRUWRUWRLQWURGXFHSRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH HFRQRPLF LQFHQWLYHV LQ RUGHU WR HQFRXUDJH ÁHHWV WR LPSURYH WKHLU ÀVKLQJ practices.

The package is being used in several case studies with very different peculiarities, from PL[HG ÀVKHULHV ÀVKLQJ +DNH LQ 1RUWK$WODQWLF:HVWHUQ:DWWHUV WR 6HDEUHDP DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHULHVLQWKH*XOIRI&DGL],QWKLVZRUNWKHPDLQIHDWXUHVRIWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODQG its application to representative case studies will be presented.

Implementing EAFM is a task that has to be conducted in respect to -and in close FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 0DULQH VWUDWHJ\ GLUHFWLYH IUDPHZRUN 06)'  ZKRVH SXUSRVH is not (or not only) to ensure the good environmental status of ecosystems. On the other hand, EAFM aims to take into account not only ecological sustainability, but also HFRQRPLFSURÀWDELOLW\DQGVRFLDOIDLUQHVV,WVPDMRUREMHFWLYH LWVVSHFLÀFYDOXHDGGHG  is to analyse tradeoffs between ecology, economy and social aspects, the tree pillars of WKHVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWRIÀVKHULHV

45

Oral Presentations PSA7.08

PSA7.09

,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQWVRIÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQVXVLQJELRHFRQRPLFPRGHOV experiences and paths for model improvements 'RHULQJ5DOI ,QVWLWXWHRI6HD)LVKHULHV*HUPDQ\

7UDQVIRUPLQJNQRZOHGJHLQWRTXDQWLWDWLYHPRGHOOLQJ'DQLVKÀVKHUVUHVSRQGWRD ZHEEDVHGVXUYH\RQG\QDPLFVLQIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGÀVKLQJSDWWHUQV Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard; Eigaard, Ole Ritzau 7HFKQLFDO8QLYHUVLW\RI'HQPDUN,QVWLWXWHIRU$TXDWLF5HVRXUFHV'HQPDUN

,QWKH&RPPRQ)LVKHULHV3ROLF\LPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWVDUHUHTXLUHGIRUQHZPDQDJHPHQW measures or management plans. Additionally, after three years the plans must be HYDOXDWHGZKHWKHUWKH\DFKLHYHGWKHLUJRDOVUHJDUGLQJVWRFNVWDWXVDQGÀVKLQJPRUWDOLW\ 7KH6FLHQWLÀF7HFKQLFDODQG(FRQRPLF&RPPLWWHHIRU)LVKHULHVZDVDVNHGWRGRVRPH RIWKHVHHYDOXDWLRQVDQGLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWV$FFRUGLQJO\LQWKHÀUVWSDUWRIWKHSDSHU an overview on the experiences of STECF are given. The problem with evaluation is RIWHQ WKH ODFN RI VXIÀFLHQW GDWD ZKLFK DUH XVXDOO\ QHFHVVDU\ IRU VHYHUDO H[LVWLQJ ELR HFRQRPLF PRGHOV PRUHRYHU WKH PRGHOV WKHPVHOYHV DUH RIWHQ LQVXIÀFLHQW 7KHUHIRUH models and especially the FishRent model, as one of the most advanced models for socio-economic evaluation of management options, has to be further developed. In fact, the main disadvantage of this model is the biological part, which so far does not nearly UHÁHFWWKHVWDWXVTXRRIELRORJLFDOVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWPRGHOV6HYHUDOFXUUHQW(XURSHDQ UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV LQFOXGLQJ 62&,2(& RQ WKH VRFLR HFRQRPLF LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQW RI management measures of the new CFP, contribute to the further development of this model. In the second part of the paper I will outline some paths for improvements and expected results of SOCIOEC.

'DQLVK ÀVKHUPHQ KDYH SURYLGHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ G\QDPLFV LQ WKHLU IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ UXQQLQJ FRVWV DQG ÀVKLQJ SDWWHUQV YLD D ZHEEDVHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH 7KH GHYHORSHG TXHVWLRQQDLUHRQÀVKLQJSUDFWLFHVLPSURYHVÀVKHULHVUHVHDUFKDQGDGYLFHE\VXSSOHPHQWLQJ detailed information to spatial modelling tools. These tools aim at integrating knowledge on spatial distribution and fuel consumption on individual vessel basis covering different ÀVKHULHVZLWKGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWDUJHWHGVWRFNVWRHYDOXDWH WKHRSWLPXPIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGHIÀFLHQF\XQGHULQFUHDVLQJIXHOFRVWVDQGSRWHQWLDO FRVWV RI GLVSODFHPHQW RI HIIRUW 7KH HQHUJ\ HIÀFLHQF\ NJ DQG YDOXH RI ÀVK SHU OLWUH RI IXHO  RI GLIIHUHQW ÀVKHULHV ZDV DQDO\VHG E\ PHUJLQJ WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH DQG ORJERRN and VMS (vessel monitoring system) information. Similar activity patterns from the respondents were detected by applying spectral clustering and social network analyses DQG FRPSDUH WKRVH WR WKH XVXDO ÁHHWEDVHG FODVVLÀFDWLRQ )XUWKHUPRUH ORJLF GHFLVLRQ WUHHVDQGFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGZKHUHWKHÀVKHUPHQPXVWUHVSRQG WRDUDQJHRIK\SRWKHWLFDOFRQGLWLRQVLQÁXHQFLQJWKHLUWULSGHFLVLRQ7KDWLVIRUH[DPSOH ZKHQGRWKH\GHFLGHWRJRÀVKLQJZK\GRWKH\FKRRVHSDUWLFXODUÀVKLQJJURXQGVZKHQ GRWKH\GHFLGHWRVWRSÀVKLQJDQGJREDFNWRSRUWHWF,QWHJUDWLRQRIWKHVHUHVXOWVLQWR RXU UHFHQWO\ GHYHORSHG VSDWLDOO\H[SOLFLW LQGLYLGXDOEDVHG ÀVKLQJ YHVVHO PRGHO ,%0  LVHVVHQWLDOLQSUHGLFWLQJKRZLQGLYLGXDOÀVKHUPHQZLOODGDSWWRG\QDPLFVLQUHVRXUFH DYDLODELOLW\ LQFUHDVLQJ IXHO SULFHV FKDQJHV LQ UHJXODWLRQV DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI various external pressures on harvested stock conditions. .H\ZRUGV $UHDEDVHG PDQDJHPHQW FRQGLWLRQDO SUREDELOLWLHV HQHUJ\ HIÀFLHQF\ ÀVKHUPHQ·V NQRZOHGJH FODVVLÀFDWLRQ WUHH LQGLYLGXDO EDVHG ELRHFRQRPLF PRGHO social network analysis; spectral clustering; underlying stock dynamics; web-based TXHVWLRQQDLUH

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Predicting consequences of management measures on marine resources and local stakeholders through bio-economic modelling Gasche, Loïc1; Mahévas, Stéphanie1; Marchal, Paul2 1 ,)5(0(5FHQWUH$WODQWLTXH)UDQFH2,)5(0(5FHQWUH0DQFKH0HUGX1RUG)UDQFH

(QGWRHQGHFRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJRIÀVKHULHVLPSDFWVLQWKH1RUWK6HD Heath, Michael 8QLYHUVLW\RI6WUDWKFO\GH8QLWHG.LQJGRP 8VLQJDQGHQGWRHQGHFRV\VWHPPRGHORIWKH1RUWK6HDVSDQQLQJQXWULHQWVWRELUGVDQG mammals, it is shown that maximum sustainable yield, and the corresponding harvesting UDWHIRUGHPHUVDOÀVKLVFRQGLWLRQDORQKDUYHVWLQJUDWHVIRUSHODJLFÀVKDQGYLFHYHUVD 7KH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH RI \LHOGV IURP WKH GLIIHUHQW ÀVKLQJ VHFWRUV DULVHV EHFDXVH RI predator-prey interactions in the food web, and the effects permeate the entire ecosystem. 7KHPRGHOKHOSVWRLGHQWLI\WKHWUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQÀVKHU\VHFWRUVDQGRWKHUSURSHUWLHV of the ecosystem, such as seabird or benthos production, that have to be considered in devising an overall harvesting strategy which meets sustainability criteria across the whole ecosystem.

Because of anthropogenic pressures from various neighbouring countries, the Channel ecosystem has been damaged. To protect the ecosystem from further degradation, several management measures, including MPAs, are being implemented or considered on the French and English sides of the Channel. The effect of MPAs’ size, design and location remains mostly unknown, causing great concern among local stakeholders DQGHVSHFLDOO\ÀVKHUV:HDSSOLHG,6,6)LVKDVSDWLDOELRHFRQRPLFPDULQHHFRV\VWHP PRGHO UHSUHVHQWLQJ ÀVK VWRFNV ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DQG H[SORLWDWLRQ WR ,&(6 DUHD 9,,G WR DVVHVV WKH SRVVLEOH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV DQG KXPDQ perturbations on this ecosystem and on related human activities. Our work has two DVSHFWVDPHWKRGRORJLFDOFRPSRQHQWIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIPHWKRGVIRUHYDOXDWLQJWKH UREXVWQHVVRIWKHGLDJQRVLVRIWKHLPSDFWRIÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWVFHQDULRVLQDFRQWH[W of uncertainty; and an operational component for validating the feasibility of using ISIS)LVKLQDFRQWH[WRIDVVLVWLQJÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ:HWULHGWRHQVXUH robustness through an iterative approach to modelling, progressively including only LQIRUPDWLRQZLWKORZXQFHUWDLQW\DQGNHHSLQJFRPSOH[LW\WRDPLQLPXP8QFHUWDLQW\LV also taken into account by means of combinations of sensitivity analyses and info-gap VLPXODWLRQV&RQVLGHULQJWKDWÀVKHUVDUHDQHVVHQWLDOSDUWRIWKHORFDOVRFLRHFRV\VWHP our marine ecosystem model explicitly takes into account their behaviour as well as their sources of income and expenses to determine how they may be impacted by management measures.

46

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Fisheries are complex systems that present a large number of interdependencies and interactions with different environmental, economic and social aspects. These LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV DUH HYHQ VWURQJHU LQ WKH FDVH RI DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHULHV JLYHQ WKHLU ecological, socioeconomic and cultural importance for the coastal areas where the activity takes place. In such context, it is necessary to develop new tools in order to improve decision-making processes and enhance environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the artisanal activity. This paper presents an integrated management PRGHOEDVHGRQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDQG'\QDPLF6\VWHPVVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVZKLFK WULHVWRLQWHJUDWHDOOWKHVHGLPHQVLRQVLQWRDXQLTXHWRRO

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6LQFHLWVFUHDWLRQWKH6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW5HVHUYHRI0DPLDUXi 5'60 LQWKH middle Amazon river has worked as a laboratory of natural resources management H[SHULPHQWV7KH 3LUDUXFX $UDSDLPD JLJDV  PDQDJHPHQW SURMHFW KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG LQ0DPLUDXiDQGLWQHLJKERUV5HVHUYH$PDQm5'6VLQFHZLWKPHDQVWRSURPRWH pirarucu management and conservation by traditional population. This study had the REMHFWLYH WR HYDOXDWH WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG HFRQRPLF SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKLV H[SHULPHQW $ TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZLWK  TXHVWLRQV ZDV SUHVHQWHG WR  RI WKH WRWDO ÀVKHUPHQ ,Q 2008, all the regions presented positive results. Average costs of pirarucu per kilo was 5 7KH PDLQ FRVWV ZHUH ODERU DV FRVWV RI RSSRUWXQLW\  DQG H[SHQVHV UHJDUGLQJ ZLWKIXHODQGDVVRFLDWLRQIHH,QUHODWLRQWRUHWXUQVSHUÀVKHUPHQWKHUHZDVDDYHUDJHRI 5“SHUPRQWKVRIZRUNLQWKH\HDU3ULFHRIÀVKZDV5SHUNLOR 7KHUHVXOWRIPDQDJHPHQWLQFUHDVHGWKHSURGXFWLYLW\RIÀVKHUPDQDQGLQFRPH0RUHRYHU it created a system that is tested and capable of bringing success, but only as long as ÀVKHUPDQDUHLQYROYHGDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJPDQDJHPHQWUXOHV

187

ePosters PC2.01

PC2.02

Social-ecological feedbacks, unobserved genetic diversity and the human dimension of the blue whiting in Europe Villasante, Sebastian 8QLYHUVLW\6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHOD6SDLQ

Multidimensional Analysis of Artisanal Fisheries in The Southeast Coastal of Brazil, Historical Changes and Shifting Baselines Monteiro-Neto, Cassiano1; Tubino, Rafael2 1 )OXPLQHQVH)HGHUDO8QLYHUVLW\%UD]LO2*DPD)LOKR8QLYHUVLW\%UD]LO

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