"Triple Play in the Buckeye State," We Ask America poll release, .... Democrats in Pennsylvania are more likely to be pro-life ..... NARAL Pro-Choice America.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns Riding the Wave Second Edition
Edited by
Randall E. Adkins David A. Dulio
~~ ~~~:~;n~~:up NEW YORK AND LONDON
Contents
List of Tables List of Figures Acknowledgments
IX
xi xiii
Riding the Wave DAVID A. DUUO AND RANDALL E. ADKINS
2 Reid vs. Angle in Nevada's Senate Race: Harry Houdini Escapes the Wave
32
DAVID F. DAMORE
3 Edwards vs. Flores in Texas' Seventeenth Congressional District: The Perfect Storm
55
VICTORIA A. FARRAR-MYERS AND DANIEL DAVIS SLEDGE
4 Boxer vs. Fiorina in California's Senate Race: The Wave Stopped at the Sierra Nevada
78
CASEY B. K. DOMINGUEZ
5 Mitchell vs. Schweikert in Arizona's Fifth Congressional District: A Rematch in the Desert
97
JENNIFER A. STEEN
6 Kirk vs. Giannoulias in Illinois' Senate Race: Scandal and Competition to Replace a President WAYNE STEGER
117
viii
Contents
7 Bass vs. Kuster in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District: Riding the Wave to a Comeback
List of Tables
139
DANTE]. SCALA AND ANDREW E. SMITH
8 Rubio vs. Crist vs. Meek in Florida's Senate Race: Coming Out of Nowhere
160
SETH C. MCKEE AND STEPHEN C CRAIG
9
Marshall vs. Scott in Georgia's Eighth Congressional District: The Power of Incumbency Fails
181 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2
CHARLES S. BULLOCK, Ill AND KAREN P. OWEN
10 Feingold vs. Johnson in Wisconsin's Senate Race: The Maverick leon Meets His Match
201
DAVID T. CANON
2.3
11
Chabot vs. Driehaus in Ohio's First Congressional District: The Rematch in the City of Seven Hills
3.1 3.2
219
RANDALL E. ADKINS AND GREGORY A. PETROW
3.3 12 Toomey vs. Sestak in Pennsylvania's Senate Race: Moderation Doesn't Pay
239
3.4
ROBIN KOLODNY
13 Schauer vs. Walberg in Michigan's Seventh Congressional District: Money Helps Create the Wave
4.1 4.2 259
4.3
DAVID A. DULIO AND jOHNS. KLEMANSKI
14 The Wave Recedes, but Which Way Will the Tide Turn?
280
RANDALL E. ADKINS AND DAVID A. DULIO
5.1 5.2
1.1
5.3 About the Contributors About the Editors
290 295
••
. ~
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
Congressional Candidate Fundraising and Spending, 2010 Party Campaign Committee Fundraising and Spending, 2010 Congressional Vote Scores for Harry Reid, 1987-2010 Reid and Angle Campaign Receipts and Disbursements by Reporting Period, 2009-2010 General Election Spending by Outside Groups in Nevada's Senate Race, 2010 Congressional Vote Scores for Chet Edwards, 1991-2010 Campaign Finance Data for Texas' 17th Congressional District Campaigns, 2004-2010 Vote Totals in Texas' 17th Congressional District by County, 2004-2010 Predicted and Actual Vote Percentages in Texas' 17th Congressional District Based on PVI Rating, 2004-2010 Congressional Vote Scores for Barbara Boxer, 1993-2010 Campaign Finance Data for California's Senate Campaigns, 2004 &2010 Boxer and Fiorina Campaign Receipts and Disbursements by Reporting Period, 2009-2010 Congressional Vote Scores for Harry Mitchell, 2007-2010 Campaign Finance Data for Arizona's 5th Congressional District Campaigns, 2006-2010 Summary of Campaign Spending in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, 2010 Congressional Vote Scores for Mark Kirk, 2001-2010 Campaign Finance Data for Illinois' Senate Campaigns, 2004-2010 Kirk and Giannoulias Campaign Receipts and Disbursements by Reporting Period, 2009-2010 State and National Political Party Spending in Illinois' Senate Race, 2010 Spending by Outside Groups in Illinois' Senate Race, 2010
20 21 37 41 43 60 62 69 71 83 84 91 99 110 110 123 126 127 129 131
238
Randall E. Adkins and Gregory A Petrow
31. Quon Truong, "Battle of the Steves: Driehaus-Chabot rematch a microcosm of the country," Cincinnati Enquirer, October 16, 2010, http://news.cincinnati.com/ article/20101016/NEWS0108/10170336/Battle-Steves-Driehaus-Chabot-rematchmicrocosm-country (accessed March 15, 2011). 32. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8QzkwGxiOU (accessed March 15, 2011). 33. Quon Truong, "Adwatch: Health Care Sham," Cincinnati Enquirer, September 23, 2010, http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100923/NEWS0108/9240340 (accessed January 19, 2011). 34. Jonathan Allen, "Vulnerable Dems Duck Public Events," Politico, September 11, 2010, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41849.html (accessed June 12, 2011). 35. "Triple Play in the Buckeye State," We Ask America poll release, http:(/weaskamerica.com/2010/08/13/triple-play-in-the-buckeye-state (accessed March 15, 2011). 36. "Survey of Likely Voters in Oh 01," http://americanactionforum.org/files/0Ho/o20 01o/o20Toplines.pdf (accessed March 15, 2011). 37. Ibid. 38. http://www.youtu be.com/user/DriehausforCongress#p/u/2/j 1QDIN Fw 1yU (accessed March 15, 2011). 39. "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17174," http://www.surveyusa.com/client/ Po11Report.aspx?g=80eccc67-aa69-4lad-be70-fcal5d656922 (accessed March 15, 2011). 40. Gary C. Jacobson, Money in Congressional Elections (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1980). 41. http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-ll-01_1 2-12-36.php (accessed March 15, 2011). 42. Bob Benenson, "Can a Wall of Cash Hold Back the Tide?" Roll Call, August 6, 2010, http://www.rollcall.com/news/75792-l.html (accessed March 4, 2011). 43. "Top Contributors; 2010 Race: Ohio District 01," Center for Responsive Politics, http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2010&id=OHOl(accessed March 15, 2011). 44. Act Blue, https://secure.actblue.com/ (accessed March 15, 2011). 45. "Top Contributors; 2010 Race: Ohio District 01," Center for Responsive Politics. 46. Chuck Todd, "Dems Pull Support from First House Incumbent This Cycle," MSNBC.com, http://fi rstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/201 0/1 0/11/5272642-demspull-support-from-first-house-incumbent-this-cycle (accessed March 15, 2011). 47. Adkins and Petrow, "Riding Obama's Coattails: The Democrats Finally Take the Ohio 1st." 48. Kyle Trygstad, "DCCC Targeting Marginal Districts in 2012," Roll Call, December 28, 2010, http://www.rollcall.com/news/-201962-l.html (accessed March 15, 2011).
12 Toomey vs. Sestak in Pennsylvania's Senate Race Moderation Doesn't Pay Robin Kolodny
The drama of the 2010 Senate race in Pennsylvania actually began in the 2004 Republican primary for the same seat. The incumbent at the time, Republican Arlen Specter, eked out a victory over a younger, more conservative U.S. House member, Pat Toomey. This early warning was not lost on Arlen Specter, who spent the next several years wondering whether he could prevail in another Republican primary despite his 25 years in the U.S. Senate. At the time, Specter was one of the very few moderate Republicans left in Congress, and his anachronistic position led him to switch parties and become a Democrat in April 2009 in order to better position himself to hold on to his seat for a sixth term. Specter's 2004 experience and his 2009 party switch helped create the context for a battle over his Senate seat, but not the battle anyone originally envisioned.
Pennsylvania Politics Known as the Keystone State, Pennsylvania, and especially its largest city Philadelphia, were very important in the nation's founding. Both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution were signed in Philadelphia, and the state's political moderation and location in the geographic center of the country led to its nickname and pivotal status in the new nation. Today, Pennsylvania retains its important place in American politics. Much of this comes from the electorally competitive nature of the state which is driven by features that lead to a political bifurcation. James Carville, a well-known Democratic political consultant for President Bill Clinton who worked extensively in Pennsylvania in 1991 and 1994, famously said that the state is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between. 1 The rural area of the state, found mostly in the northern tier and central section forming a "T'' is known for being very conservative, Republican, politically active if sparsely populated. The areas around the cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, where most of the state's 12.4 million residents live, are like most urban areas in the United Statesheavily Democratic. The urban-rural split in the state is also reflected in that the areas that are part of the "T" are still economically dominated by agriculture, coal mining and steel production. The urban areas are more cosmopolitan and are home to Fortune 500 corporations like U.S. Steel, PPG Industries, and H.].
240
Robin Kolodny
Heinz. This combination makes Pennsylvania seem to he a microcosm of the United States. 2 The Keystone State, like most states, is overwhelmingly white (82 percent); roughly 11 percent of residents are African American, while about 6 percent are HL;panic and 3 percent are Asian. 1 The fastest growing segment of the population is Hispanic Americans whose population increased by nearly 83 percent between 2000 and 2010. 4 Much of this growth was around the areas of Allentown, Lancaster, Reading, Hazleton, and Philadelphia. Pennsylvania is also home to a large senior citizen population (over 15 percent, which is higher than the national average of about 12.5 percent). 5 Nearly 30 percent of Pennsylvanians have a German heritage. 6 Pennsylvania is a true "swing state." Voters have consistently switched between electing candidates of the two major parties, especially in statewide races. This trend is less so for presidential elections in recent years, however, as the state has voted to give its electoral votes to the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the last five elections. Even though Pennsylvania is a swing state, Democrats have a sizeable (1.18 million) voter registration advantage over Republicans. Many take this as a sign both of national trends in party identification (Democrats saw large gains across the nation in 2008), and the tenuousness of party as a predictor of vote choice or turnout. 7 As a result, it is not unusual to find one Pennsylvania senator from each party (as was the case after 2010), and to have the two parties alternate control of the governorship. While Republicans have held an advantage in controlling the state legislature, it has always been by the narrowest of margins. This is partly because of the "T" phenomenon described above. The two large urban centers normally produce Democratic winners at the U.S. House level, while the "T" selects Republicans. The electoral results in statewide races follow this pattern as well-Democrats do well in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and Republicans get a lot of votes from the other parts of the state. Typically, the partisans selected from the major parties are more moderate than in other regions of the nation that might be more skewed to one ideological perspective. Democrats in Pennsylvania are more likely to be pro-life (and especially Catholic) and more likely to he pro-gun than Democrats nationwide. Conversely, Republicans tend to he more pro-environment and more in favor of controlled development and social welfare programs than Republicans nationwide. In 2010, Pennsylvania's gubernatorial seat was open, as the incumbent, Democrat Ed Rendell, was completing his second term and ineligible to run again. The state also held elections for the entire General Assembly (the state's lower house) and half the state Senate in addition to the U.S. Senate seat and the entire U.S. House delegation. Pennsylvania is also a closed primary and closed registration state. Voters may register or reregister with a new party affiliation up to 30 days before an election. Only registered party voters could vote in the primaries that were held on May 18, 2010.
Toomey vs. Sestak in Pennsylvania's Senate Race
241
The Context of the 2010 Senate Race The U.S. Senate seat contest in 2010 turned into an open-seat race, but that was not originally expected. A critical part of the story of the 2010 election was focused on an individual who did not even end up running in the general election: Arlen Specter. First elected in 1980, he initially sought a sixth term, but not as a member of the party to which he had belonged since his first campaign in 1965. Because of his waning support within the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, demonstrated by his near-loss of his primary nomination in 2004, Specter decided to become a Democrat in early 2009. He believed that he would certainly lose the Republican nomination in 2010 to former Congressman Patrick Toomey (15th District, Allentown) who nearly defeated him in 2004. No one expected Specter to have a hard time winning the Democratic Party nomination as he was welcomed into the Democratic Party at the national level with open arms. This assumption proved to be incorrect.
Arlen Specter: Pennsylvania's Independent Senator A Kansas native, Arlen Specter began his career as a lawyer after earning degrees from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale Law School. In 1964, he became assistant counsel to the Warren Commission, a committee responsible for investigating the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Specter, although a registered Democrat, ran for Philadelphia District Attorney in 1965 as a Republican and won; he was reelected to that post in 1969. After a few years of electoral setbacks, Specter returned to practicing law until Senator Richard Schweiker announced his retirement, opening up the U.S. Senate seat for the 1980 election. Specter was elected to the Senate in 1980, when he defeated Peter F. Flaherty by less than 2 percentage points. He served in the Senate until2011. 8 Specter enjoyed 30 years in the Senate and holds the record for most years served in the Senate by anyone from the state of Pennsylvania. Throughout his career, he played an important role on the Senate Judiciary and Appropriations Committees. He is largely known for his more moderate stances compared to most other Republican elected officials. For instance, Specter took liberal positions in supporting abortion rights and affirmative action. He also took conservative positions in supporting gun rights and the death penalty. Specter's positions on these and other issues led to a very unusual voting record in the Senate. In an era of polarized partisans, Specter continually showed himself to be a moderate, often irritating his Republican colleagues. From his first year in the Senate, he received very low scores from the American Conservative Union (ACU) on the votes they tracked; that first year he only voted with the ACU's position 40 percent of the time (see Table 12.1). In fact, in his 30 years in office, he received scores of 50 percent or higher from the ACU only eight times. As one would expect with a low conservative voting record, Specter often voted with the Democrats. His vote ratings from the liberal group Americans for Democratic Action were typically above 40 percent, and his party unity scores
-~----··-·····•'-•······-~··-·---------
Robin Kolodny
242
Toomey vs. Sestak in Pennsylvania's Senate Race
Table 12. 1 Congressional Vote Scores for Arlen Specter, 1981-20 I 0 Year
American Conservative Union
Americans for Democratic Action
Party Unity
Presidential Support
2010
0%
90%
97%
97%
2009
20%
75%
95%
96%
2008
42%
45%
62'){,
58%
2007
40%
60%
49%
63%
2006
43%
30%
61%
76%
2005
63%
45%
69%
85%
2004
75%
45%
70°;(,
88%
2003
65%
25%
84%
89%
2002
50%
35%
60%
89%
2001
56%
40%
60%
87%
2000
62%
40%
67%
59%
1999
48%
40%
64%
53%
1998
33%
45%
41%
49°Al
50%
71%
1997
32%
70%
1996
50%
50%
63%
59%
1995
36%
55%
65%
49%
1994
46%
55%
55%
55%
1993
57%
45%
54%
42%
1992
30%
65%
41%
45%
1991
71%
40%
67%
68%
1990
48%
39%
53%
58%
1989
57%
40%
55%
66%
1988
33%
60%
48%
63%
46%
40%
1987
15%
80%
1986
33%
75%
27%
31%
1985
36%
55%
51%
61%
1984
36%
50%
67%
65%
1983
16%
80%
46%
59%
1982
26')1,
70%
50%
55%
1981
40%
50%
64%
77%
Source:
QJ's Politics in America (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 2010 and 2000); The American Conservative Union (http://www.c,mservativc.mg); Americans fm Demo· cratic Action (http://www.adaction.nrg); and Congressional Quarterly's vote studies (2009: http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/media/vote_study_2009; and 2010: http://inno· vation.cq.o lln/med ia/v< ll
