Catalytic converter - East West Petroleum

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Jun 19, 2013 ... Maari/Manaia: MN-3 ERD. Q413. Extended reach (c8,500m MD) producer well targeting Mangahewa Fm in eastern flank of Manaia structure.
Catalytic converter New Zealand focus Business time in Middle-earth

19 June 2013

Recent coverage by financial press (in particular the FT) in Europe of the New Zealand oil and gas sector has given a flavour of what could be looked back upon as an inflection point for the country and some of its players over the next 12-18 months. The New Zealand space is one that we know particularly well, underpinned by our 2012-13 New Zealand Petroleum Sector Yearbook.

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While globally still very much a fringe play, momentum in New Zealand is in sharp ascent. Three offshore rigs have already been confirmed to arrive during H213: a shallow-water jack-up (Ensco-107), a mid-water semi-sub (Kan Tan IV) and a deepwater drill ship (Noble Bob Douglas). Onshore, there has been an equally sharp upswing in forward E&P work programmes.

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Peter Dupont

+44 (0)20 3077 5741

Xavier Grunauer

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Player attention continues to centre on the country’s only producing basin, Taranaki, which has already yielded 2 bln boe. Listed small and mid-cap players active in Taranaki include AWE (ASX:AWE), Beach Energy (ASX:BPT), Cue Energy (ASX:CUE), East West Petroleum (TSX-V:EW), Horizon Oil (ASX:HZN), Kea Petroleum (AIM:KEA), Loyz Energy (SGX:LOYZ), New Zealand Energy Corp (TSXV:NZ), New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZX:NZO), Octanex (ASX:OXX), Pan Pacific Petroleum (ASX:PPP) and TAG Oil (TSX:TAO).

Institutional sales

Increasingly players are also being drawn to the 17 other basins mapped within NZ’s 5.9m km2 (eight-times the size of the North Sea) of sovereign territory, more than 95% of which lies offshore. While a number are already known to house hydrocarbons, only Taranaki has graduated to commercial production. The frontier plays are largely the domain of deep-pocketed major and supermajor portfolio players, with the likes of Shell, OMV, PTTEP, Mitsui and Origin leading the way. An exception is the onshore East Coast Basin where TAG Oil and New Zealand Energy Corp hold significant acreage and are each advancing work programmes focused towards proving-up the commerciality of the region’s long-appreciated shale oil and gas potential. Anadarko entered the New Zealand sector in early 2010 and has since advanced an aggressive work programme over a large offshore acreage position to the east of the South Island. Anadarko has said it sees Mozambique-like big-gas analogues in the region, causing others to tune in and listen. Further weight was added with the recent announcement of CNOOC partnering with Shell to lodge a prospecting permit application over 147,000km2 of virgin acreage across the New Caledonia Basin in the northwest corner of the New Zealand EEZ. The permit represents an area larger in size than England. A number of other majors are known also to be kicking the New Zealand tyres, with names already in the public domain including Chevron, Repsol, Woodside, Statoil and Santos. Numerous others are also known to be looking, and at least one other supermajor is also thought to be actively engaged. Withi this frame, we highlight mid-caps AWE, Cue Energy and New Zealand Oil and Gas as ones to watch.

Oil & gas team Ian McLelland

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Will Forbes

+44 (0)20 3077 5749

John Kidd

+64 (0)4 8948 555

[email protected]

Gareth Jones

+44 (0)20 3077 5704

[email protected]

Catalysts aplenty in small and mid-cap space While it is majors OMV, Shell, Todd Energy and Anadarko which dominate gross spend metrics (these players alone have already committed, we estimate comfortably, more than US$1 bn of forward NZ E&P spend), a number of mid-caps and juniors also have full work programmes and catalyst sets ahead. Exhibit 1 summarises our forward tally on small and mid-cap catalysts based on our analysis of both confirmed and success-contingent wells together with work programme commitments over the next 6-12 months. Note that due to JV ownership crossovers, in a number of cases individual catalysts can be counted across multiple players.

Taranaki Onshore

Taranaki Offshore

Kea Petroleum

Loyz Energy

Pan Pacific Pet.

Octanex

AWE

NZOG

Horizon Oil

Cue Energy

NZ Energy Corp

East West

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -

TAG Oil

Exhibit 1: Drilling catalyst count for NZ-active small and mid-cap players

Frontier Onshore

Source: Edison Investment Research

Within this subset, our favoured three plays share a number of common characteristics. Each has an existing production backbone comprising more than one producing asset. Each also has a strong balance sheet to support work programmes and fund capital programmes under success scenarios. In addition to appealing New Zealand catalysts, each also holds producing and/or exploration interests in one or more other geographies, serving to broaden asset portfolios and risk profiles. Additional to these three, and despite their shallow size and liquidity, we also highlight Octanex and Pan Pacific Petroleum, for different reasons. Octanex is catalyst-heavy (including a 25% interest in a Santos-led well nearing TD on the Australian northwest shelf) with up to three fully-carried, highimpact wells slated for H213. Success with one or more would be of company-making magnitude, with no cost-of-failure downside. Pan Pacific can also point to a catalyst-laden H213 with five wells slated across interests in New Zealand, Vietnam and Australia. With Pan Pacific however, our angle is weighted as much towards M&A as it is exploration success. In our view Pan Pacific is one of the clearest oils M&A candidates on the ASX, although the extent of its H213 work programme and a tight shareholder register will likely serve to delay any such action until 2014.

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

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Top NZ-active small/mid cap picks AWE See our 9 May QuickView. Tui has been an immensely profitable asset for AWE (42.5% and operator) and its leading of the drilling of a northern lobe extension (2-4mmbbl unrisked) at Tui and involvement with a standalone Oi prospect (15mmbbl) commencing Q313 would add significantly to Tui’s producing life. More broadly, we are drawn to the depth and breadth of AWE’s producing asset portfolio and its development pipeline, particularly its Indonesian and Perth basin assets. On the back of significant recent reserve upgrade announcements, which have passed almost completely unacknowledged by the market, AWE currently trades on an EV/2P multiple of just US$6/boe.

Cue Energy See our 28 May QuickView. Cue holds small but valuable stakes in five producing fields including the separate Maari and Manaia offshore fields in the Taranaki Basin. The Maari JV has committed to drill at least seven wells starting in H213 for an unrisked potential reserve uplift of 20-30mmbbl. Cue has a free carry on a further exploration well, Whio, which lies in an adjacent permit and could be tied-in to Maari’s existing infrastructure at a very low cost. At the current share price we see no value attributed beyond cash held and Cue’s existing Maari assets. In other words, Cue’s Indonesian and New Guinea producing assets as well as its pending Maari, Manaia and Whio work programmes in our view are ascribed no value at the market’s inferred current valuation.

New Zealand Oil & Gas See our 4 June QuickView. NZOG holds stakes in the Tui oil field and the Kupe gas-condensate field, each of which has proved highly value-accretive for it. After five years adrift while it tried unconvincingly to plot a coherent growth strategy, NZOG has recently established encouraging new partnerships that have served to sharpen its focus and populate a previously underwhelming pipeline. One such deal will see it participate in the OMV-led Matuku well (65mmbbl prospective) starting in Q313 which, if successful, we estimate could be worth an unrisked 70c/share. Two further wells at Tui would be lower-impact, but still significant in extending Tui’s producing life. Should further prospects be matured, NZOG could feasibly participate in and/or lead a total of up to eight wells over the next 12 months, nearly all of which would qualify as genuine high-impact exploration plays.

Cue Energy

New Zealand Oil and Gs

Jun/13

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

Jul/12

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Jun/12

Exhibit 2: Indexed Performance of selected New Zealand stocks

AWE Ltd

Source: Bloomberg

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

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Tracking M&A picks: Bridge, Ithaca and ShaMaran

Global Universe

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

Jul/12

Minor disappointment this month following the Mjosa dry well (largely carried) but our conviction remains that Bridge is the best value play in the North Sea. An anticipated deal of the Asha discovery would transform the stock and could add 40-100p to the price from a cash deal or production swap. On the downside, we anticipate any delay in the Vulcan satellite farm-out will disappoint, although the balance is still to the upside. Bridge has driven up its 2P+2C to 81mmboe, however despite this material level of resource the stock continues to trade on a low $1.5/boe (EV/2P+2C). Further drivers including Amol exploration (Q413 confirmed), Duart East E&A (Q114) and Garantiana monetisation could add to the positive outlook for this stock.

Exhibit 3: Bridge vs Global Universe, indexed 12 mths

Jun/12

Bridge Energy

Bridge Energy ASA

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June 2013

150 140 130 120 110 100

Global Universe

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

90 80

Jul/12

Ithaca is attractive both on M&A and deep-value grounds. For M&A bulls, the major concern has been exploration cost exposure that has now been largely farmed out (the most recent deal at Handcross being the most significant). Meanwhile continued news that GSA remains on target for first oil in H114 drives the value story. We continue to see plenty of upside to our risked NAV for the production/development assets of c 190p, while Handcross could add 10-20p to this as drilling approaches in Q413.

Exhibit 4: Ithaca vs Global Universe, indexed 12 mths

Jun/12

Ithaca Energy

Ithaca Energy Inc

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June 2013

280 230 180

Global Universe

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

80

Aug/12

130

Jul/12

After a swift re-rating in May reversing a gentle decline, ShaMaran has drifted slightly. With only one asset, newsflow can be sporadic, though we expect news on an extended well test in the next quarter. The third appraisal well (AT-3) spudded in March and is a notable step out to the east to confirm structure as mapped on 3D. A sidetrack has been executed after drilling issues were encountered. With a diluted 20.1% stake in one of the most prolific discoveries in Kurdistan, we continue to believe ShaMaran is a logical consolidation play.

Exhibit 5: ShaMaran vs Global Universe, indexed 12 mths

Jun/12

ShaMaran Petroleum

ShaMaran Petroleum Corp

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June 2013

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

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Catalysts While we cannot predict the success or failure of given wells, it is critical to know when potential share price catalysts could be expected. In the following pages we list the events we believe could have an impact on shares in the coming months. In some cases, where companies covered by Edison are drilling wells, we attempt to place a value on the potential share price impact. In many other cases, not least CPRs, confirmation of licences, farm-out announcements or for non-covered companies, we expect a share price movement, but do not explicitly quantify the value. It is important to note we may include lateral catalysts (such as drilling in a neighbouring block) as well as direct company events. The chart below shows the companies that have catalysts occurring both in this quarter and in the next, indicating which companies are likely to have the most newsflow in coming months. A more detailed list of catalysts can be found later in the report. Please call if you would like any particular companies included in future, or if you would like to discuss the expanded dataset.

Exploration and catalysts – current quarter

Exploration and catalysts – next quarter

Bridge Energy

*Green Dragon Gas

*Hawkley

Petroceltic

*Po Valley

*Range Resources

*Egdon Resources

President

*Xcite

Chariot

ShaMaran

*Nido

Circle Oil

*Madagascar

Cairn

DNO

*Gulf Keystone

Karoon

Premier Oil

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Genel

Number of catalysts

Exhibit 6: Number of catalysts for companies in Q213 and Q313

Exploration events – current quarter

Source: Edison Investment Research, company presentations. Note:*Indicates Edison coverage.

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

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Elephant hunters: Genel, DNO, Tullow and Africa For investors looking for catalysts that could have a major impact, we highlight the following events (though we are not necessarily promoting these as buy ideas):  Tawke Deep is a key well for Genel and DNO as it could add significant resources to the producing fields from deeper horizons in the Jurassic and Triassic. On 11 June, DNO announced that it had flowed 1,500bopd from an Upper Jurassic reservoir underlying Tawke. DNO announced that this likely increases recoverable reserves at Tawke to over 1bn boe. We await the tests of the two reservoirs remaining.  Tullow Oil and Africa Oil are currently drilling the Etuko well in Kenya. Etuko is located on Block 10BB where the Ngamia-1 well was drilled, discovering a significant light oil resource. In addition to the discovery at Twiga South, Ngamia-1 materially de-risks the hydrocarbon system the Etuko well will test. Africa Oil estimates that the Etuko well will target 231mmbbl, with results expected in mid-July.  We also introduce Po Valley, which could have two significant well results by the end of the year. Gradizza should be spudded in Q313 and accounts for c 10% of the share price on a risked (13.5% CoS) basis. Success here could see a material value (if we move the CoS to 50%, it would imply a 40% move in the share price). The Canolo and Zini wells could see further upside later in the year.

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

6

The charts below give a mechanistic approach to share prices vs components of their value. Exploration beyond 12 months is excluded but could be worth valuing for companies with large acreage positions and/or active programmes that could increase value, such as seismic campaigns or upcoming CPRs. Exhibit 7: Cash vs current share price Net cash

160%

Share price

140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

Petroceltic

DNO

*Egdon Resources

ShaMaran

*Central Petroleum

*Simba

Victoria Oil & Gas

Karoon

Genel

President

Pura Vida

*Madagascar

*Gulfsands

Borders and Southern

Rockhopper

Cairn

0%

Sterling Energy

Clearly this position could reverse with further wells. A negative recent result for HRT in Chariot’s backyard is unfortunate, leaving the Southern basin with two high-profile dry wells. For FOGL, we expect drilling to next occur in the region at the end of 2014, while Sterling Energy awaits resolution of a border dispute in Cameroon and an election in Madagascar.

180%

Chariot

Three companies are trading close to (or below) their cash levels – each has a large acreage position in frontier basins and will not be drilling in 2013. Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) and Chariot suffered in 2012 as wells in the basins were unsuccessful, while Sterling Energy has significant drilling, only later in 2014. It is perhaps not surprising that the market is happy to keep cash elsewhere until drilling is nearer.

*Falkland Oil and Gas

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

NAVs vs share prices

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Excludes those with net debt; *Denotes Edison-covered company.

Exhibit 8: Core NAV, discoveries and other non-core vs current share price

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Denotes Edison-covered company.

Core NAV

*Green Dragon Gas

*Central Petroleum

*Gulfsands

*Egdon Resources

*Gulf Keystone

*Falkland Oil and Gas

*Nido

*Po Valley

*Xcite

Share price

Victoria Oil & Gas

The difficulty for many of the companies in this chart is that, although they trade well below their core NAV, a path to value may be obscured currently. Po Valley has to overcome Italian legislation, while Victoria Oil & Gas needs to regain investors’ confidence with production/sales growth (and a considerable improvement in investor communication), but has very substantial upside potential. Madagascar Oil could see a considerably higher share price if the on-going pilot programme proves up commerciality of the vast oil deposits in its acreage. Xcite and Nido are also trading on large discounts to core NAV.

450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% *Madagascar

Adding discoveries and other non-core items increases the value of a majority of the companies to above the current share price.

7

In our coverage universe, there are few wells being drilled in the next two quarters.

600%

This quarter (and into next quarter), Egdon will be drilling at Wressle and a well at Burton on the wolds in the next few months, which could add materially to its value if successful

300%

500% 400% 200%

Current quarter

*Central Petroleum

*Gulfsands

*Simba

*Green Dragon Gas

*Egdon Resources

*Gulf Keystone

*Nido

Next quarter

*Falkland Oil and Gas

The start-up of the early production facilities in Q213 should be a catalyst and should herald the company as a producer.

*Xcite

This is not to say there are no catalysts to increase value elsewhere. Gulfsands has diversified into new areas (most recently in Colombia) and may make further deals. Gulf Keystone awaits approval of its FDP and resolution of the court case.

Victoria Oil & Gas

0%

*Madagascar

100%

*Po Valley

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

Exhibit 9: Six months RENAV vs share price

Discovery + other non-core

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Denotes an Edison-covered company. Values given as ‘current quarter’ or ‘next quarter’ are risked values for catalysts occurring in those time periods.

Exhibit 10: 12 months RENAV vs share price 600% 500% 400% 300% 200%

Four quarters Discovery + other non-core

Next quarter Core NAV

*Central Petroleum

*Simba

*Gulfsands

*Green Dragon Gas

*Falkland Oil and Gas

*Gulf Keystone

*Nido

*Xcite

*Egdon Resources

Victoria Oil & Gas

0%

*Madagascar

100%

*Po Valley

We do not show any value from catalysts if they are more than four quarters away due to the short-term view of the market. We are also aware that many companies review their drilling programmes throughout the year. We will update as and when new catalysts appear. In our existing coverage universe there are few catalysts within the next 12 months that could have a substantial impact on share prices, with the exception of Egdon and Central Petroleum.

Current quarter Share price

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Denotes an Edison-covered company. Values given as ‘current quarter’, ‘next quarter’ or ‘four quarters’ are risked values for catalysts occurring in those time periods.

8

Bespoke indices: Looking at historic trends We have generated a set of over 70 bespoke indices of oil companies listed across the UK, US, Canadian and Australian exchanges. Each index is focused on a particular geography or theme, and includes only companies that we believe have significant exposure to that theme (as a percentage of value). We then compare these to our Global Universe, which attempts to replicate oil stocks as a whole (it includes c 200 IOCs, services, E&Ps and refining companies). The indices are rebased for the last 12 months and are market-cap weighted. Apart from the Global Universe, we exclude all companies above a $5bn market cap due to the impact these stocks would have on the indices. Small caps (and particularly E&Ps) continue to underperform their larger brethren, although have started to perk up since April. Exhibit 11: Indexed performance of IOCs, E&Ps, oil services and refiners 160 Downstream

140

Oil Services

120

IOCs

100

E&Ps

80

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

Jul/12

40

Jun/12

60

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced 17 June

Exhibit 12:Market cap index: below $500m vs $1-5bn vs $5-10bn vs greater than $10bn

$5-10bn $1-5bn >$10bn

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

Jul/12

Below $500m

Jun/12

130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced 17 June

We can further break the E&Ps down into regional comparisons. East Africa continues to outpace our Global Universe, while our other indices track below. Buoyed by positive news this month in the form of successful exploration and rumours around material exports to Turkey, we believe the market will begin to ascribe greater value to companies in Kurdistan as the region is de-risked politically. For Morocco, we believe the index will begin to tick up in the second half of 2013 as drill catalysts become more imminent. Moving into 2014, we expect the index to outperform the Global Universe as up to 10 material wells complete.

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

9

Global Universe

May/13

Apr/13

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

Jul/12

The High-Impact Index continues to trade at a substantial discount to our Global Universe. This is a persistent trend driven by the continual disappointment of key frontier exploration wells. Within the past month, news on Tawke has excited DNO’s shareholders more than Genel, with two more intervals still to be tested. Tullow’s frontier Ethiopian well (Sabisa-1) had to be sidetracked due to bore hole instability, with results expected imminently.

Exhibit 13: Global Universe vs High-Impact Explorers

Jun/12

High Impact

High Impact

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

Exhibit 14: Global Universe vs Kurdistan Index

Kurdistan news has been generally positive recently, with the Genel discovery at Chia and encouraging results from

150

Tawke Deep so far. The highly deviated well at Tawke-20 has produced very encouraging flow rates which have prompted DNO to consider new development strategies at the field. Plenty of drilling newsflow from many of the blocks could see further positive news in the coming months.

130

140 120 110 100

Apr/13

Mar/13

Jan/13

Feb/13

Kurdistan

May/13

Global Universe

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

80

Jul/12

90

Jun/12

Kurdistan

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

10

Apr/13

Mar/13

East Africa

May/13

Global Universe

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

Jul/12

As a result of bore hole instability at Sabisa-1 (Tullow’s wildcat Ethiopian well) a sidetrack is currently being performed. This was expected to complete at the end of May but has been further delayed. On 13 May, Tullow and Africa Oil spudded the Etuko Kenyan well. Although derisked by the discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga, this well targets a new play type in an area called the ‘eastern flank play’, where oil was discovered by Shell in 1992. Africa Oil estimates the prospect to contain 231mmbbl. Results are expected in mid-July. In addition, we expect to receive the results of testing operations at the Ngamia-1 well in June.

Exhibit 15: Global Universe vs East Africa Index

Jun/12

East Africa – Etuko (Kenya) well

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

115 110 105 100 95 90

Apr/13

Mar/13

UK North Sea

May/13

Global Universe

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

These are significant North Sea developments, which are both expected to achieve first oil in 2016.

Oct/12

80

Sep/12

85

Aug/12

certain technical data on its sole asset (Bentley field) for $15m demonstrates the continued appetite for corporate deals in the North Sea. We look to the submission of field development plans for Kraken (EnQuest operated) and Catcher (Premier operated) in H113 and H213 respectively.

120

Jul/12

Our North Sea Index continues to trade at a large discount to the Global Universe. Despite recent successful Bonneville and Kraken appraisal wells, true exploration success has been elusive. Xcite’s recent announcement that it had sold

Exhibit 16: Global Universe vs North Sea Index

Jun/12

North Sea

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

Apr/13

Mar/13

Jan/13

Feb/13

Falklands

May/13

Global Universe

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

The 2013 operating focus in the Falklands is on four to five 120 seismic acquisition programmes, with a recently completed 110 campaign by Borders & Southern (BOR) around the 100 Darwin area and Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) across its Diomedea prospect. However, with no drilling until end-2014 90 at the earliest, things will be quiet. The big catalysts for 80 investors in the short term are from potential farm-outs, with 70 both BOR and Desire Petroleum (DES) looking for partners 60 to fund the next wave of exploration. In the case of BOR, any deal that includes Darwin development could be highly accretive to the share price.

Jul/12

Exhibit 17: Global Universe vs Falklands Index

Jun/12

Falklands – Looking to 2014

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

11

125 120 115 110

Apr/13

Morocco

May/13

Global Universe

Mar/13

Feb/13

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

Aug/12

105

2014 will be a critical year for Morocco. We estimate at least 100 10 material wells to complete in 2014, the results of which 95 will have a significant impact on the validity and 90 prospectivity of the frontier Moroccan play. Investors could consider beginning to build exposure to the Moroccan play in H213, to benefit from the increase in activity and high number of well results in 2014.

Jul/12

Morocco appears to be trading up against the Global Universe. We expect to see further movement as drill catalysts for offshore Morocco become imminent. Cairn Energy, Genel Energy and Komos Energy/ Fastnet Oil & Gas will lead the charge with wells expected to spud in Q413/Q114.

Exhibit 18: Global Universe vs Morocco Index

Jun/12

Morocco – Index expected to trade up in H213

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

125 120 115 110 105 100

Apr/13

Feb/13

Mar/13 E&Ps

May/13

Global Universe

Jan/13

Dec/12

Nov/12

Oct/12

Sep/12

90

Aug/12

95

Jul/12

The E&P index continues to trade at a large discount to our global universe. This is consistent with what we are witnessing across our sub-sectors, as the market remains risk-averse, especially with regard to small- and mid-cap E&Ps. Positive results from the Kenyan Etuko well and Ethiopian Sabisa-1 well could provide some much needed support to our E&P index, though the higher-risk (smaller cap) plays need exploration success for increased confidence, we think.

Exhibit 19: Global Universe vs E&Ps Index

Jun/12

E&Ps

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Priced at 17 June

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

12

Catalytic converter | 19 June 2013

Exhibit 20: Catalysts – New Zealand focus

13

Company

Country

Field / Other

Next Catalyst

Notes

Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy Cue Energy East West East West East West East West East West East West East West East West East West Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Horizon Oil Kea Petroleum Kea Petroleum Loyz Energy NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZ Energy Corp NZOG

NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ NZ

Maari/Manaia: Manaia-2 Maari/Manaia: MR6A Maari/Manaia: MN-3 ERD Maari/Manaia: MR-7 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-8 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-1 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-10 Te Whatu: Whio East Cheal: Well 1 East Cheal: Well 2 East Cheal: Well 3 East Cheal: Well 4 East Cheal: Well 5 South Cheal: Well 1 South Cheal: Well 2 South Cheal: Well 3 North Cheal: Well 1 Maari/Manaia: Manaia-2 Maari/Manaia: MR6A Maari/Manaia: MN-3 ERD Maari/Manaia: MR-7 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-8 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-1 ST Maari/Manaia: MR-10 Te Whatu: Whio Puka: Puka-3 Beluga/Hickman Awakino South Alton: Alton-2

Q313 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q313 Q313 Q313 Q313 Q313 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q313 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q413 Q313

Vertical appraisal well, to be drilled by Kan Tan IV Horizontal 'new pool' exploration well, to be drilled by Ensco-107, targeting Mangahewa Fm in eastern flank of Maari anticline Extended reach (c8,500m MD) producer well targeting Mangahewa Fm in eastern flank of Manaia structure Horizontal sidetrack from existing water injector well, targeting Moki Sst in northern flank of Maari structure Horizontal sidetrack from existing water injector well, targeting Moki Sst in eastern flank of Maari structure Horizontal sidetrack from existing production well flanking to west of Maari structure to establish new water injector New water injection well flanking to east of Maari structure to establish new water injector CUE fully carried by OMV under Q412 farmin agreement Micene (