Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Eos, Vol. 90, No. 40, 6 October 2009

MEETINGS Determining Priorities for Future Mars Polar Research Third International Workshop on Mars Polar Energy Balance and the CO2 Cycle; Seattle, Washington, 21–24 July 2009 PAGE 351 Since 1997, five spacecraft have observed Mars’s polar processes, resulting in an unprecedented amount of data with ranges of spatial and spectral resolutions not available from prior missions in the 1960s and 1970s. The vast amount of new data and the complex nature of Mars’s polar processes led Mars polar scientists from around the world to gather in a small group environment to discuss the data, models, and emerging theories. The expertise of the 36 attendees of the Third International Workshop on Mars Polar Energy Balance and the CO2 Cycle included remote sensing, laboratory experimentation, and climate modeling. Nearly all spacecraft instruments that have been or are currently being used to monitor Mars’s carbon dioxide (CO2) cycle were represented. At the workshop, participants agreed on the following five highest-­priority programmatic and research recommendations to increase understanding of Mars’s polar processes: 1. NASA should establish a new research program under the Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES)

solicitation for proposals called the Mars Polar Research Program (MPRP). Mars polar research is particularly an interdisciplinary endeavor, often requiring equal portions of data analysis, laboratory work, and/ or numerical modeling; thus, polar research proposals are often not well suited for current NASA ROSES programs, which generally support each aspect of polar research separately. MPRP research projects would include all aspects of polar research and would encourage those projects that combine experimentation, modeling, and data analysis. The synergy of integrated polar research will provide Mars polar scientists with the funding and flexibility to continue to make great discoveries about the most dynamically active surface on Mars. 2. Increased emphasis must be placed on laboratory experiments to measure the spectral and physical properties of CO2 ice as well as CO2 ice mixed with water ice and dust. A great deal of scientists’ current interpretations of remote sensing observations are based on inadequate or incomplete laboratory data. 3. It has been repeatedly suggested that Mars is currently undergoing climate change, based on observations of the south polar

Space Agency Workshop Considers Effect of Climate Change on Infrastructure Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: NASA Mission and Infrastructure; Kennedy Space Center, Florida, 28–30 July 2009

PAGE 352 With centers located throughout the country, NASA could experience a range of climate change hazards. Depending on the region, these hazards are likely to include more extreme and frequent high temperatures, more frequent and intense precipitation events, changing water availability, and sea level rise. These changing climate hazards could undermine key NASA missions by damaging operations and critical infrastructure assets. The specific effects of climate change may include shifting availability, reliability, and cost of water and energy; and changes in safety and operations related to more extreme events (e.g., floods, fire). NASA has scientists who are experts in many aspects of the science of climate change. To bring together these experts in climate science and climate impacts

with NASA’s institutional stewards, a workshop was conducted in July. The workshop explored questions including, What is the state of the science, and how can it be used to address NASA’s needs? What are potential risks to NASA institutional capabilities, and how does NASA incorporate these risks into its risk management system? How can the climate science and operational communities work together so NASA can adapt to climate change by making sustainable infrastructure and asset investment decisions? The workshop served to demonstrate how a federal agency can start to (1) understand current and future climate change risks, (2) create an inventory of vulnerable institutional capabilities and assets, and (3) develop next steps so flexible adaptation strategies can be constructed and implemented. The workshop program, in which attendees participated in discussion

residual cap (­SPRC). Assessing SPRC stability and determining whether Mars is undergoing climate change could be as simple as long-­ term monitoring of the surface air pressure. Workshop participants recommended that all future landers and rovers destined for the surface of Mars be equipped with accurate, precise, and stable pressure sensors. 4. Spatial and temporal density variations of the seasonal CO2 ice are expected but cannot be easily measured with present-­ day observations. To determine CO2 ice density as a function of space and time, NASA should send a spacecraft to Mars that is capable of two specific measurements: vertical changes in the cap height (and thus depth, given the substrate topography) during the fall, winter, and spring seasons, and a simultaneous determination of the CO2 ice column abundance. 5. Mars Odyssey gamma ray and neutron spectrometer data have shown that the wintertime atmosphere in the polar regions can become strongly enhanced with noncondensable gases (these gases are depleted in springtime). This affects CO2 condensation on the ground and in the atmosphere by changing the frost point, thus affecting the basic thermal structure of the atmosphere. It is important that improved measurements of the enhancement/depletion of these noncondensable gases be made by future spacecraft. Additional high-­priority recommendations, which are not strictly polar, as well as a more detailed explanation of the top five priorities, can be found in the online supplement to this Eos issue (http://​w ww​.agu​.org/​ ­eos​_elec/). —Timothy N. Titus, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, Ariz.; E-mail: ttitus@​usgs​.gov; and Timothy I. Michaels, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, Colo.

groups organized by climate hazards related to geography (coastal, arid, or temperate) and function (facilities management, environmental management, and science), was developed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research using their experience gained in working with stakeholders such as New York City’s Office of Long-­Term Planning and Sustainability. About 60 attendees (26 scientists and more than 30 institutional stewards) participated in the 3-day workshop. At the meeting, participants agreed that NASA should (1) develop a science working group on climate change to provide information to operational managers at NASA, (2) work to build intercenter coordination and collaboration with other institutions in the regions where NASA centers are located, and (3) focus on incorporating available scientific research into each center’s strategic long-­term planning process. —Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, N. Y.; and Molly Brown, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.; E-mail: molly​.brown@​nasa​.gov