Chapter 8
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Steven McNulty (
[email protected]; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Peter Caldwell (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Thomas W. Doyle (National Wetlands Research Center, US Geological Survey, Lafayette, Louisiana) Kurt Johnsen (Southern Institute of Forest Ecosystems Biology, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Yongqiang Liu (Center of Forest Science Disturbance, USDA Forest Service, Athens, Georgia) Jacqueline Mohan (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Jeff Prestemon (Forest Economics Unit, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina)
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ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ-‐‑ traction of farming and the rise of plantation forestry in the 20th century, the struc-‐‑ ture and function of southern forests continues to evolve. Climate change represents ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱĚȱ ȱ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗst ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Key Findings f ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ beetle. f ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ǯȱ f ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽǯȱ f ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
8.1 Historical Perspective ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱŗŞŜŖǰȱ ȱŚřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŘŖȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱĴǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŘŖȱȱ resulted in abandonment of large areas of crop and pasture lands. Some of the aban-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşśŖȱȱ¢ȱ ŗşŜŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
forests for soybean and other crop production. Much of this timberland reduction oc-‐‑ ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǻȱȱŗƖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖƖȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱ ȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ
8.2 Southeastern Forest Types ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȦǰȱȬ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗśȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱŗřȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǰȱȱȱȱřȱȱȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ2ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ-‐‑ est management could be used to cope, adapt, or mitigate negative impacts. Atlantic and East Gulf Coastal Plain. ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȬȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ¡Ǽǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¡ȱǼǰȱȱȱ ǻȱ£Ǽǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ varies as does the potential impacts on trees species. Several dendrochronological ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ
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and potential future droughts, may be a major impact on the distribution of some ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱǯȱThese forests cover much of the high elevation areas of the Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ systems, the high elevation forests of the southern Appalachian ecosystems are at ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřoȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱŚŞŖǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱęȱǻȱ and ȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ elevations in North Carolina and harboring federally threatened animal species, includ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȃȄȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȬȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ Ě ǰȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ability has increased. If these trends continue, they could lead to substantial change in the structure and function of future southern Appalachian forests. In addition to determining biodiversity, climate variability also controls forest ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱǻ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
to have been of centuries-‐‑scale duration in the time period 4,000 to 1,000 years before ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗǰŖŖŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǰȱȱǻȱǯǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱǻȱspp.Ǽȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Piedmont. The Piedmont region lays southeast of the Appalachian region and stretches ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŗǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŚȱ¢ȱȬȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ǼǰȱȱȂȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ less-‐‑diverse forests may be more susceptible to insect and pathogen pests, and that ¢ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change scenarios considered. Conversely, under those projections the biomass of chest-‐‑ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ2ȱȱǻǼȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ2 increases the productivity of the canopy loblolly pine and ȱȱǻȱ¢ĚǼȱȱ¢ȱŘřƖȱȱŘŝƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ 2ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯ Coastal wetland forests. ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Coastal Plain and maritime ecosystems and are responsive to changes in climate and ȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
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Figure 8.1 Mixed conifer and deciduous Piedmont forest in the southeastern USA.
ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱǻǯǯǰȱĚǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǼǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ£ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǻ£ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ mangroveȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡-‐‑ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ coastlands to mangrove dominated shores, due to climatic changes, may also lead to ȱȱęȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ Climate change poses some immediate and long-‐‑term threats to the health, func-‐‑ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ in Mississippi, particularly in counties dominated by pines in the southern part of the ȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡¢ȱŞŖŖȱȱŗŘŖŖȱǼȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
171
172
CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ The combination of future climate, soils, and land cover may not resemble anyplace ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱěȱȱǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ¢ȱ soils of the southeastern mountains and Piedmont are more similar to each other than ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ response to changes in SE climates. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ models themselves do not predict the future locations of tree species, as they do not ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱŗȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǻ ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱśşƖȱȱȱşŘȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱŘŗƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŗŜƖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŞǚȱȱŗŖoǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŖoȱȱŗśoǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŗśoǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ
8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ function of climate or climate change, but indirectly a function of climate impacts on ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Wildfires ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŚśǰŖŖŖȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşŝȱȱŘŖŖřȱǻ ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻÛȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ
173
174
CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱǰȱ ęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ reduce fuel moisture due to increased evaporation and, therefore, increase the threat ȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ reduces soil moisture, tree productivity and fuel loading could despite the ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ precipitation are less certain than those for air temperature. Projected precipitation ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ higher in many subtropical and mid-‐‑latitude ecosystems outside the SE. This reduced ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ Hurricanes
ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŗşȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřǰȱŚǰȱȱśȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŜȱȱŗŚȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŘȱ-‐‑ lion m3 of timber estimated at a value of $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion dollars. Impacts are ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Dzȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ forests also can also be impaired. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ eter ratios, height, spacing, recent thinning, and impacts of previous disturbance on ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱ composition may also impact the degree of damage from hurricanes. Therefore, stand ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ forest managers to reduce hurricane impacts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǯȱĴǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻP. taedaǼǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŝƖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŜƖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱę¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ est composition. Insects ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ȱȱ ǯǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞşŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşşŖǯȱ
ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ impact the amount of insect caused damage under future climate conditions includ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ£ȱŗşŜŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ
175
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CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
change may also impact insect success. Although it is one of the principle drivers of ris-‐‑ ȱȱȱǰȱ2ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŝƖȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ2ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŚȱȱŝȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱȱ ǞŞŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱǯǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱŗşşşȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŘǼǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ soil nitrogen concentrations from sites that largely survived the drought. In addition to ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǼȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climatic conditions also made these stands the most susceptible to mortality once those conditions changed. In combination, insects, drought, and nitrogen deposition ulti-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ cline seem clear, forest managers have historically not been taught to consider vigorous ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Elevated Atmospheric CO2 ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ2 could ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱřśƖȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŞŖȱȱȱȱȱřŞŖȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ 2ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŞśŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
Figure 8.2 Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) mortality in western North Carolina due to a combination of drought, southern pine beetles, and acid rain.
ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ also the basis of plant photosynthesis. Given that plant photosynthesis is not saturated ȱȱ2ȱǰȱȱȱȱ2ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ2 ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
8.5 Ecosystem Services Southeastern forests have been a major source of ecosystem goods and services for ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ics and climate may change the value of and need for some ecosystem services, but an ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2, and part of a ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ Forest Productivity and Carbon Sequestration ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱDzȱ ȱDzȱ£Dzȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
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¢ǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ2 increase and ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ter 13% of regional greenhouse emissions in soils and long-‐‑lived forest products, such ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ Forest Water Resources ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖǯŚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę-‐‑ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŞǯřǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱěȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱěǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ
Figure 8.3 Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation predictions of soil erosion areas within the Uwharrie National Forest by 2030.
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ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ spheric carbon enrichment, as long as precipitation does not decline or air temperature ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ2 ben-‐‑ ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŞǯŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ regional timber harvests that come from the northern reaches of the region. This may ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ There are a variety of other adaptation strategies to address climate trends and ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ
Figure 8.4 Forest model predictions of increased carbon sequestration (measured at net primary productivity, NPP) in the northern sections of the southern USA due to increasing air temperature by the end of this century.
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ be important in developing forest management regimes and increasing stand produc-‐‑ ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ2 enrichment may be further enhanced by improved genetics, bioen-‐‑ gineering, use of marginal agricultural land for tree production, and more intensive ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŞǯśǼǯ ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŚŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢£ȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ
Figure 8.5 Interactions of climate (e.g., drought), biological (e.g., insects) and abiotic (e.g., fire or acid rain) can combine to cause forest mortality. The interactive stresses may be related (e.g., drought and fire) or unrelated (e.g., drought and acid rain). Any single stress may not have caused the mortality, but as climate change continues the potential for more frequent, more severe, and synergistic stress increases.
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ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ££Ȭȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Improved understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation options are only ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȬȱȦȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ ¡Ǽȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱŞǯŜǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ application of these tools.
Figure 8.6 Web-based tools such as TACCIMO (Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options) are increasingly being used to easily translate scientific knowledge into the hands of the land manager.
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
8.7 Conclusions ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ Dzȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ pendent studies suggest that remnant species present from the last glaciation, such as ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ drier conditions in some parts of the SE, conditions could favor more drought-‐‑tolerant ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯ
8.8 References ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ-‐‑ tion of tropical cloudiness by soot. ǰȱŘŞŞȱǻśŚŜŞǼDZȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖŚŝǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜşȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱřŗȱǻřǼDZȱŗŘşȬŗřŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȬȱDZȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻřřǼDZȱŗŘŚŚŝȬŗŘŚśŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜŘȱǻřǼDZȱ ŘŜřȮŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŚȱǻřǼDZȱŗŜŚȬŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱDZȱ ȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱȱŘȱęȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǽ2Ǿȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŜŗȱǻřǼDZȱŞŘŝȬŞřśǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȬȱȱŜśȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŖśȬŗŗśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ests. ¢ȱǻŘřŗȦŘřŘǼǰȱŜŖDZśŝȬŜŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻ ȱǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŝŚȮŗŚŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¡ȬȱȱȱŗŝȬ¢Ȭȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşDZȱŞŚşȮŞŜŗǯȱ
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CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ Śȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǰȱŜřȬŜşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ Survey. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ
¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşDZŚŘŜřȬŚřŖŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ řŘŖDZȱŗŚśŜȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ĴǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ -‐‑ Ȃȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯȱȱřŗŞȱǻśŞśřǼDZȱŗŗŖŝǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ěǯȱ 1992. Climate forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. ȱŘśśȱǻśŖŚřǼDZȱŚŘřȬŚřŖǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ2 enhances biological contributions to ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěĴȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŝȬŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşŝȬŚŚŞǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ-‐‑ sity Press. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻśǼDZȱ ŗŞřŚȬŗŞŚşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate change and forest disturbances. ȱśşȱǻşǼDZȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱŚŖŞȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŞŞŞȬŗşŖŗǯ ȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱȬ-‐‑ DZȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ A focus on species, ecosystems, and landscapes. ȱȱŞȱǻŚǼDZȱşŘŗȬşřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ2DZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ19, řŖŖŜDzȱ DZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚ ŖŖŘřŚŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱěȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ change. In ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱŗȬŘŞǯȱǰȱȱDZȱȱ Netherlands. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ agementȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŝŝŖȬŝŝŝǯ ǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝDZŝŗȬŞŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Appalachian forest using soil charcoal. ¢ȱşŗȱǻřǼDZȱŜŜŘȬŜŝŖǯ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŘŖŚşȬŘŖŜŝǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱŜŗȬŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱǯȱȱŘşřȱǻśśŘşǼDZȱŚŝŚȬŚŝşǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ tropics based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-‐‑derived lightning model. Climatic ChangeȱřşȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱ ŘŝřȬŘşŜǯȱ ££Ȭǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŘŜŖȱǻśǼDZȱŝşśȬŞŖśǯ ££Ȭǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘȱǻřǼDZȱ ŝŚşȬŝŝŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŚȬŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ DZȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦŘŗŜǯŘŘŜǯŗŝŝǯŝŞȦȦęȏȏȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘřȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŘŖȬŚŘŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱǯȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Carolina Piedmont forest. ȱȱŗŖǻŘǼDZȱŘŝśȬŘŞŞǯ
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱClimate ChangeȱŞŚDZȱŗşŗȬŘŖŘǯ
ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱśŗȱǻşǼDZȱŝŜśȬŝŝşǯ
ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ Ȭ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱŘŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřŗȬŚřǯ
ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ ¤Û£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-‐‑ stand tree recruitment response to climate change. ȱȱŝŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŜřȬŗŝŝǯ ¤Û£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ -‐‑ plications under climate change. ȱȱŗŞȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŜŜŚȬŗŜŝŞǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -‐‑ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱ ǰȱ ĵDZȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱŗřŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŚȱǻřǼDZȱ řşŖȬŚŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ 33 ǻŚǼDZȱŗŝŞȬŗŞŗǯȱ
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186
CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱà£Ȭ ěǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŖśȬŗŘŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǵȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşřȱǻŗŗǼDZȱřşȬŚŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŚŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŝŖŗȬŝŘřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Ěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱśȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗȬŗŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ tropical South America. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřřȱǻŗȬŚǼDZȱŚŖȬśřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱ ¢ȱ-‐‑ ȱĴ 32, ŗŖŞŖŜDzȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖś ŖŘŘŚŗŗ ȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŞśȬŜşŝǯ Liu, Y. 2011. A numerical study on hydrological impacts of forest restoration in the southern ȱǯȱ¢¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşşȬřŗŚǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ biotic controls on change in soil elevation. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜȱǻśǼDZȱśŚśȬśśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ-‐‑ der rapid climate change. ¢ȱŞŜȱǻŞǼDZȱŘŖŞŞȬŘŖşŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ populations using a forest ecosystem model. In The productivity and sustainability of south-‐‑ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱŜŗŝȬŜřŚǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȬǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŗŗŜȱǻǯȱŗǼDZȱŗŝȬŘŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ DZȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ loads under a changing climate. ȱȱŗśŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŖśřȬŘŖśŞǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱřDZȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱŜŝȬŗŘŘǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŝDZŝŝŖȮŞŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǯȱ¢ĴǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱǯȱǯȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱřřǰȱřŞřȬřşŚǯ ȱǻȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȬ-‐‑ ǯȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǼ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻŘŚǼDZȱ şŖŞŜȬşŖŞşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ Implications for forest regeneration and succession. ȱȱŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŗşŞȬŗŘŗŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ2DZȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼDZȱśŞśȬśŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱřşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŗřȬŘřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱȱDZȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱŗŝşȱǻřǼDZȱŞŗŞȬŞŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǰȱ ǯǯȱȬ££ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŘȱǻśŖǼDZȱŗŞŖśŘȬŗŞŖśŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŝȱǻŚśǼDZȱŗşřŜŞȬŗşřŝřǯ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ in simulations of 21st-‐‑century climate change. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻřśǼDZȱŗŚŝŝřȬŗŚŝŝŝǯ ȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ §ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘȬȱǯȱȱŚŗŗDZȱŚŜşȬŚŝŘǯȱ Ûǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱ ǰȱ ęȱ£ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱ coastal eastern Spain. Climatic ChangeȱřŞȱǻřǼDZȱřŚśȬřśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗřśȱǻřǼDZȱřŜŖȬřŜŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȬśřǰȱǰȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ȱȱ ȱęǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱ & Sons, Inc. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ŗŖȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŗśȬŚŘŝǯ £ȱǯǯȱŗşŜŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱ-‐‑ £ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǽȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǾǯȱȱřȱǻŜǼDZŞȬȱŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ role of genetics and tree improvement in southern forest productivity. In General Technical ȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ-‐‑ search Station, Chapter 10.
187
188
CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ-‐‑ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼDZȱřŘşȬřřşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱ ȱȱDZȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ Ȭ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱCana-‐‑ ȱ ȱȱȱȱřşȱǻřǼDZȱśŖŝȬśŗŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ forest landscapes. In ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬśř, ed. ǯǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱŜŖŝȬŜřŖǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŖȱ ǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗŗşȬŗřśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱŗşśşȬŗşşŝǯȱ ȱȱ -‐‑ ¢ȱȱŗŖŝǰȱŞŗŚşDzȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŗ ŖŖŖŚŞŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗŜǰȱ ŖŖ ŖśDzȱ DZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŖŗśŝřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȦȦ¢ȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱŚřǯȱǰȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱśDZȱŚŘŗȬŚřŜǯ ȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ Implications for current pine management. In ȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬŝŗǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŗŘŝȬŗřŗǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ-‐‑ ȱŘŗȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŝȬřśǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ŚDZśřȬşŜȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ǯ ǯȱ ȱȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǻǯǼȱȱȱȱ-‐‑ ¢DZȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȬ ȬŚŘȬǯȱŘǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ȱśȱǻřǼDZȱŚŖśȬŚŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȮśř. ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǯǯȱȂȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśDZȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȬȱŖşşǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼDZȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ęȱ¢ǯȱȱřŗřȱǻśŝŞşǼDZȱşŚŖȬşŚřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ-‐‑ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŞŝȬşşǯ
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ-‐‑ prises. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśȱǻşǼDZȱŚŝśȮŚŞŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱřŚŗȬřśŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ-‐‑ sponse to climate change. ȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼDZȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖśŘǯ
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