Comprehensive Country Ranking for Renewable Energy based Mini ...

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preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

COMPREHENSIVE COUNTRY RANKING FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY BASED MINI-GRIDS PROVIDING RURAL OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION A.-K. Gerlach1,2, E. Gaudchau1, C. Cader1, V. Wasgindt3, Ch. Breyer1 1

Reiner Lemoine Institut gGmbH, Ostendstraße 25, 12459 Berlin, Germany Phone: +49 (0)30 53042007, E-Mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 2 now with: Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik IWES, Königstor 59, 34119 Kassel, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 561 7294361, E-Mail: [email protected] 3 cdw Stiftungsverbund gGmbH*, Friedrich-Ebert-Straße 104, 34119 Kassel, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 561 76644620, E-Mail: [email protected] (*formerly: SMA Stiftungsverbund gGmbH)

ABSTRACT: Access to electricity is a matter of course to most people on earth. Still there are far too many people that do not have the possibility to use electricity neither private nor for working. Renewable energy based mini-grids can be a solution for electrifying rural areas. Sustainable business models are needed and places for starting them. A worldwide country ranking for that issue shall help finding adequate countries. Relevant framework conditions are identified for establishing sustainable business models based on renewable powered mini-grids. The key drivers are weighted according to their relevance for running sustainable businesses. A global ranking is presented focusing the top ten countries. Two of them, Rwanda and Peru, are pictured in further detail. Several countries are identified and presented offering good preconditions for starting a sustainable business of electrifying rural population with renewable energy based mini-grids. Keywords: mini-grid, rural electrification, Rwanda, Peru, market potential

1

INTRODUCTION

There are 1.3 billion people without access to electricity worldwide [1]. Especially in Africa and SouthEast Asia there are countries with high population but only few people have access to electrical energy. Electricity is the essential basis for the improvement of elementary needs, like light, communication, education, health and safety. Further, electricity is often the first step leading to commercial and industrial activities. Several photovoltaic (PV)-based off-grid systems are available on the market [2], but due to the additional focus on commercial and industrial activities in this work minigrids are emphasized. An overview of literature reports on mainly PV-based mini-grids analyzing size, location, hybridization and type of application can be found at Werner and Breyer [3] whereas Gerlach et al. [4] give a literature overview focusing business models and economic considerations. Self-sustaining island systems are mostly the only possibility to bring electricity to people living in rural areas and to grow local economy. In consequence of rising fuel prices, renewable energies become more and more interesting and especially PV systems are an adequate technology for mini-grids since they are easy to install and to maintain while solar energy is available everywhere for free. The technics of selfsufficient mini-grids do work properly and are sufficiently tested. Nonetheless there seems to be no public mini-grid which works without subsidies, yet. The aim is to bring electricity to not electrified people not only by providing the system, but by establishing sustainable business models which work long-term and are reproduceable. This requires a project development including sustainable financing and system operation [5]. The pure economics emphasize that stable PV-based mini-grid business models are possible [6]. Still, not every country with non-electrified regions is predestined to be among the first ones for implementing

business models of mini-grids. Political and economic instability can be criteria for exclusion or high subsidized diesel fuel can make a renewable energy-based mini-grid completely uneconomic compared to a diesel-based energy supply. It is important to start with an overview of all countries to find out which are adequate for starting respective businesses. A comparison of all countries regarding relevant characteristics leads to a country ranking concerning the implementation of business models for mini-grids and finally to possible target countries.

2

METHODOLOGY

For filtering and ranking those countries that are interesting for business models concerning mini-grids, different characteristics of countries have to be compared and rated. These are chosen by their relevance for starting a business of electricity supply. There have been identified two main criteria regarding starting a business. The first one is the market potential and the second one is the political and financial environment. Both criteria are based on several indicators giving country specific information. To realize the ranking a comprehensive spreadsheet has been created. The option to choose exclusion criteria and weighting factors is included. The factors presented in this paper are those which have been finally considered as adequate. 2.1 Relevant countries For comparison of the countries it is reasonable to exclude nations which are definitely not relevant for this study. Otherwise they might distort the results of ratings. Countries that are already electrified sufficiently do not need electrification activities and do not need to be considered in the further process. Countries have been

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

excluded by this criterion in case of having an electrification rate over 95 % and less than 200,000 people in rural areas without electricity (data from [7][8][9][10][11]). Most of industrialized nations are excluded that way. The next step is to exclude countries which are definitely unsuitable for starting a business: countries with high political instability or very low diesel prices. Nations that belong to the 5 % of countries with the lowest political stability worldwide [12] are excluded as well as countries for which existed a travel warning from the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs in April 2012 [13]. Renewable mini-grids have to compete with low diesel prices in some countries. In various countries, people have to buy diesel at pump stations for diesel generators, therefore pump prices for diesel are used as a proxy. This is why countries with a pump price for diesel of less than 0.25 USD/l are excluded from the ranking [14][15]. 89 remaining nations have been evaluated with the following criteria. 2.2 Market potential The market potential index is based on three criteria and amounts to 40 % of the total ranking. The absolute amount of rural people who are without access to electricity (rpwoe) and thus potential users of mini-grids is calculated by the rural population [11] multiplied by one minus the rate of rural electrification [9]. It represents 50 % of the market potential. For not neglecting nations with little population, the electrification rate (er) of the whole country is also included in the market potential with 30 % [7][8][9][10]. Since pure diesel grids are the direct competitor to renewable mini-grids, also the pump price for diesel (ppd) is included with 20 % in the market potential [14][15]. 2.3 Political and financial environment With 60 %, the political and financial environment represents the major part of the final ranking. It is composed of political stability (ps) [12] and inflation (if) [16] with each 15 %, of the corruption perception index (cpi) [17] with 20 % and finally the ease of doing business index of the World Bank (dbi), which is a combination of 10 different criteria itself and influences not only political and financial environment with 50 %, but also the final ranking with 30 % the most [18]. Country specific information like governmental attitude towards renewable energies would have been desirable for the ranking as well, but as there are no quantifiable numbers it has to be regarded for each interesting country itself like it is shown further down on the examples of Rwanda and Peru. Different weightings of the criteria are demonstrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Weighting of criteria for country ranking 2.4 Scoring The ranking itself works by a scoring of each criterion. Countries can gain 1 to 10 points for each attribute, whereas 1 is worst and 10 shows best preconditions for renewable mini-grids. Scores are given in different ways depending on the data basis. For criterions like electrification rate, pump price for diesel, political stability, corruption perceptions index and inflation, which are in linear proportions, the ten scores have been evenly spread to the countries. For rural population and for the ease of doing business rank the spreading refers to the percentiles. Using the described weighting, which is displayed in Figure 1, the final scoring of one country (fs) is reached with the following calculation: fs = 0.4 * (0.3er + 0.5rp + 0.2ppd) + 0.6 * (0.15ps + 0.2cpi + 0.15if + 0.5dbi)

3

RESULTS

From scoring the countries, weighting the different criteria and finally ranking all nations, results a ranking of all countries worldwide. This shows their applicability for starting business models focusing PV-based minigrids compared to the other countries. Top 20 of the final ranking are shown in Figure 2. Find all other ranked countries and further data in the appendix in Table V. The excluded countries and the reason for it are summarized in the appendix Table VI. Rwanda is on the top of the list followed by other African nations like Zambia, South Africa and Botswana. There is only one country on the top 10 list which does not belong to Africa. This is Peru on the 10th position. Peru as a South American nation with the highest electrification rate on the list and Rwanda as the top country from the ranking with the lowest electrification rate under the top ten shall be presented more detailed later in section 4. Regarding the results of the two main criteria separately, top 10 lists look very different. This is visualized in Table I and Table II. Top countries of the market potential criterion are countries with low electrification rates and many people without access to electricity. Top ten countries are all located in Africa. Top countries are Malawi, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania.

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

Figure 2: Result of country ranking: Top 20

Table I: Ranking of market potential. Data are taken from UNDP, IEA, GIZ and World Bank [7][8][9][10][11][14][15]. rank 1 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 10

country Malawi Uganda Kenya United Republic of Tanzania Rwanda Burkina Faso Madagascar Burundi Chad Zambia

electrification rate [%] 9 9 16 14 5 15 19 3 4 19

Being under the top 10 of political and financial environment, means that the country offers good conditions for starting a business. Included are also countries with higher electrification rates as the quantity of potential users is not considered in this category. Top countries are The Bahamas, Botswana and Rwanda. Table II: Ranking political and financial environment. Data are taken from World Bank and Transparency International [12][16][17][18]. rank 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 9

country The Bahamas Botswana Rwanda South Africa Namibia Antigua and Barbuda Peru Solomon Island Colombia Mexico

electrification rate [%] 87 45 5 75 34 95 86 14 94 99

4

COUNTRY PROFILES

To get an insight into the countries, two of the top ten countries have been analyzed. Information which are interesting for sustainable business models of PV minigrids shall be offered here. 4.1 Rwanda The East African country Rwanda is the top country in the ranking. It has been in civil war in the early 1990s and started rehabilitation in the end of the 1990s. Economy and income for people had to be recreated. Meanwhile there is a very good economic environment in Rwanda. The state systematically fights corruption and got a World Bank’s doing business rank of 45, out of 183, in 2011 [17][18]. Especially rank 8 in getting credit and starting a business are excellent results in terms of thinking about business models focusing mini-grids. Table III gives an overview on several further data of the Rwandan country profile separated by three different main categories. Table III: Data country profile of Rwanda. business environment doing business rank (out of 183) getting credit rank starting a business rank corruption rank (out of 182) inflation rate [%] GDP per capita [USD] foreign direct investment [mUSD] energy data total power plant capacity [MW] total RE capacity [MW] national electrification rate [%] rural electrification rate [%] rural people w/o electricity [m] diesel price [USD/l] annual solar irradiation [kWh/m²] PV capacity installed cum. [MW] social data population [m]

sources 45 8 8 49 2.3 530 42 53 25

[18] [17] [16] [19] [20]

1 8.5 1.62 1,830 0.75

[21] [21][22] [7][8] [9][10] [9] calc. [15] [23] [22]

10.62

[24]

5

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

thereof rural [m] human development index mean years of schooling literacy rate [%] rural poverty rate [%] political stability (percentile rank) mobile subscriptions/ 100p [%] life expectancy [a]

8.61 0.43 3.3 71 49 41.5 33.4 55.4

[11] [25] [25] [26] [27] [12] [28] [25]

Although the economic conditions of Rwanda improved the last years, there is still a rural electrification rate of only 1 % which means that there is a rural population of 8.5 million people having no access to electricity. Figure 3 shows the population density in Rwanda and the transmission lines crossing the country. It is visible that there is a high population density but only few transmission lines. This is confirmed by Figure 4 which shows the nightlights in Rwanda. Only those people who have access to electricity can use it for lightning at night.

Figure 3: Transmission lines, power plants and population density in Rwanda. Data are taken from Platts, GADM, NGA, ADB and CIESIN [21][29][30][31][32]. In Rwanda there are only few bigger cities like Kigali the capital, Gisenyi or Butare having light at night. The rest of the country is dark as soon as the sun goes down although there are lots of people living in the dark areas. Additionally Rwanda produces only half of its consumed electricity itself [35]. Thus the country has urgent needs to expand its capacities.

Figure 4: Nightlights at Rwanda. Data are taken from GADM and NOAA [29][33]. Over the last decades Rwanda did not regularly invest in building sustainable power plants. Figure 5 shows capacities and energy sources of power plants that have been commissioned between the years 1970 and 2008

and are still in operation today. There are only few years showing an increase of power plant capacities.

Figure 5: Capacity and energy source of Rwandan power plants, being commissioned between the years 1970 and 2008 and still in operation. Data are taken from Platts [21]. Now there are targets for electrification in Rwanda to have 1,000 MW electric power capacities in 2017 while there were 90 MW in 2011 [35]. Conventional energy resources are very expensive for Rwanda as no own respective resources are accessible. There are investments in energy production based on methane gas, hydro power, geothermal and solar power [34]. Regarding all these conditions Rwanda seems to be rightly on the first place of the ranking. It offers a good environment for implementing a sustainable business model of renewable mini-grids. Only one thing could be a barrier for that intention. This is that rural people are not living in settlements but have their farms spread on the hills [35]. This situation would not be economic for a mini-grid because of long and expensive cables. This is something not considered in the ranking and has to be checked for each country separately. Still, as the general set-up is so positive, it might be worth to look for places in Rwanda where people live close to each other or are willing to move for electricity. Industry can be established and poverty can be fought that way. 4.2 Peru Peru, with an electrification rate of 86 % is percentaged much more electrified than Rwanda with its 5 %. But as Peru is a much larger country and has much more inhabitants there is still a rural electrification rate of only 28 % and thus nearly 6 million people without electricity in rural areas. For a better understanding the maps of Peru are presented similar to Rwanda. Although there are many power plants spread over the country (Figure 6), there are still large areas without or with very few nightlights depicted in Figure 7.

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

GDP per capita [USD] foreign direct investment [mUSD] energy data total power plant capacity [MW] total RE capacity [MW] national electrification rate [%]

Figure 6: Transmission lines, power plants and population in Peru. Data are taken from Platts, GADM NGA and CIESIN [21][29][30][32].

rural electrification rate [%] rural people w/o electricity [m] diesel price [USD/l] annual solar irradiation [kWh/m²] PV capacity installed cum. [MW] social data population [m] thereof rural [m] human development index mean years of schooling literacy rate [%] rural poverty rate [%] political stability (percentile rank) mobile subscriptions/ 100p [%] life expectancy [a]

5,400 7.328

[19] [20]

5,378 3,003

28 5.95 1.10 2,010 10.2

[21] [21][22] [7][8] [9][10] [9] calc. [15] [23] [22]

29.08 8.26 0.725 8.7 90 54 20.3 100.1 74

[24] [11] [25] [25] [26] [27] [12] [28] [25]

86

Main energy sources in Peru are hydro power plants. They serve 59 % of consumption followed by natural gas with 40 % [36]. Power plants being built in the last 40 years and still in operation are displayed in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Capacity and energy source of Peruvian power plants, being commissioned between the years 1970 and 2008 and still in operation. Data are taken from Platts [21]. Figure 7: Nightlights at Peru. Data are taken from GADM and NOAA [29][33]. Peru’s top position in the ranking results not only from this market potential, but mainly from its ease of doing business rank which is 41 out of 183, in 2011 [18]. There is a good financial environment for foreign investors. This is also indicated by foreign enterprises producing the biggest share of energy in Peru [36]. More detailed facts about Peru can be found in Table IV. Table IV: Data country profile of Peru. business environment doing business rank (out of 183) getting credit rank starting a business rank corruption rank (out of 182) inflation rate [%]

sources 41 24 55 80 1.5

[18] [17] [16]

However, there are plans for increasing the share of renewable energies to 5 % in 2013. Interesting for PVbased mini-grids is especially a plan of the government for rural electrification. The period for the plan is 2012 to 2021 and the aim is to achieve 95 % of rural electrification in 2021 [37].

5

CONCLUSION

According to this work it can be stated that there are several countries which offer good preconditions for starting a sustainable business of electrifying rural population with PV-based mini-grids. The results show countries which seem to be on good way concerning sustainable development and can help entrepreneurs focusing on countries being adequate for starting a business. Adequate countries are located in southern and eastern Africa and Peru as a South American nation.

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

However, while working with the subject it became obvious that still every country has to be checked in detail. This country ranking gives a first direction and information as a basis for further studies like it is presented here for Rwanda or Peru.

[13]

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work has been partly enabled by financial means of the cdw Stiftungsverbund gGmbH and has been highly appreciated for gaining deeper insights on the role of renewable energy-based mini-grids for rural electrification in developing countries. The authors would like to thank Philipp Blechinger for contribution and helpful discussions, Marzella Göring for preparing power plant data of the last 40 years and Paul Bertheau for helping with the transmission lines data of Peru.

[14]

[15]

[16] REFERENCES [1] [IEA] – International Energy Agency, 2011. World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA, Paris. [2] Breyer Ch., Werner C., Rolland S., Adelmann P., 2011. Off-Grid Photovoltaic Applications in Regions of Low Electrification: High Demand, Fast Financial Amortization and Large Market Potential, 26th EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9, DOI: 10.4229/26thEUPVSEC2011-5BV.1.45 [3] Werner C. and Breyer Ch., 2012. Analysis of MiniGrid Installations: An Overview on System Configurations, 27th EU PVSEC, Frankfurt, September 24-28 [4] Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K., Wasgindt V., Breyer Ch., 2013. Business Models for Renewable Energy Based Mini-Grids in Non-Electrified Regions, this conference [5] Breyer Ch., Gaudchau E., Gerlach A.-K., Hlusiak M., Cader C., Berteau P., Wasgindt V., 2012. PVbased Mini-Grids for Electrification in Developing Countries, study on behalf of cdw Stiftungsverbund gGmbH, August [6] Cader C., Hlusiak M., Breyer Ch., 2013. Highresolution global economic potential of stand-alone small-scale hybrid PV-Battery-Diesel Systems, 2nd International Conference on Micro Perspectives for Decentralized Energy Supply, Berlin, February 27 – March 1 [7] [UNDP] - United Nations Development Programme, 2007. Human Development Report 2007/2008, UNDP, New York, http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/ [8] [IEA] – International Energy Agency, 2004. World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA, Paris. [9] [UNDP] – United Nations, [WHO] – World Health Organisation, 2009. The Energy Access Situation in Developing Countries, UNDP, New York, http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/libraryp age/environment-energy/sustainable_energy/energyaccess-in-developing-countries/ [10] [IEA] – International Energy Agency, 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010, IEA, Paris. [11] World Bank, 2010. Rural population, World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL [12] World Bank, 2010. Worldwide Governance

[17]

[18]

[19]

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[21] [22]

[23] [24]

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Indicators (wgi), World Bank, Washington, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/mc_count ries.asp German Federal Foreign Office, 2012. Travel Warnings at April 2012, Berlin, http://www.auswaertigesamt.de/DE/Laenderinformationen/01ReisewarnungenListe_node.html#doc536872bodyText2 [GIZ] – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 2012. International Fuel Prices 2010/ 2011, 7th Ed., GIZ, Eschborn, www.giz.de/Themen/en/SID-C04863669244F5E4/dokumente/giz-en-IFP2010.pdf World Bank, 2010. Pump price for diesel fuel, World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EP.PMP.DESL. CD World Bank, 2009/2010. Inflation, consumer prices, World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.Z G [TI] - Transparency International, 2011. Corruption Perceptions Index 2011, TI, Berlin, http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/ World Bank and [IFC] – International Finance Corporation, 2011. Ease of Doing Business Rank 2011, Doing Business, http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings World Bank, 2010. GDP per capita, World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP. CD World Bank, 2010. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$), World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV. CD.WD Platts, 2009. UDI World Electric Power Plants data base, Washington, Version of March 31 Werner C., Breyer Ch., et al., 2011. Global Cumulative Installed PV Capacity and Trade Flows, 26th PVSEC, Hamburg Breyer Ch. and Schmid J., Population Weighted Irradiation, 25th PVSEC, Valencia, 2010 World Bank, 2010. Population, total, World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL [UNDP] – United Nations Development Programme, 2011. Human Development Report 2011, UNDP, New York, http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/default.html World Bank, 2009. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above), World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.Z S World Bank, 2010. Poverty headcount ratio at rural poverty line (% of rural population), World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.RUHC World Bank, 2010. Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people), World Bank, Washington, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.CEL.SETS.P 2 Hijmans R. Global Administrative Database, www.gadm.org

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

[30] National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. VMap0, Springfield, Virginia [31] African Development Bank Group, 2012. AICD, http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/documents/t ools/list/arcgis-shape-files [32] Balk D. and Yetman G., 2005. The Global Distribution of Population: Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3), CIESIN, New York, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw [33] NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, 2007. Version 4 DMSP-OLS Nighttime Lights Time Series. US Air Force Weather Agency, Boulder, Colorado, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/downloadV4comp osites.html [34] [GTAI] – German Trade & Invest, 2011. Wirtschaftstrends Ruanda Jahresmitte 2011, GTAI, Bonn. http://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Navigation/DE/Trade/mae rkte,did=210936.html [35] Wilhelmi V., 2011. Ruanda – neue Perspektiven eines Entwicklungslandes, Klett-Magazin Geographie 2012. http://www2.klett.de/sixcms/media.php/229/9991960006_langfassung_ruanda.pdf [36] Fokken U., Mine der Welt, neue energie 05/2012. [37] Dirección General de Electrification Rural, 2011. Plan National de Electrification Rural (PNER) Periodo 2012 – 2021, Lima, http://dger.minem.gob.pe/Proyectos_pner2012.aspa

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APPENDIX

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

[%]

[worldwide rank (out of 183)]

[USD]

4.983 3.195 4.080 6.078 4.430 3.851 2.243 2.434 2.951 3.386 2.691

0.023 0.085 0.043 0.069 0.045 0.107 0.040 0.040 0.062 0.015 0.081

45 84 35 54 78 63 109 123 127 41 111

530 1,250 7,280 7,400 5,330 1,320 790 510 520 5400 360

2083.8

20.8

2.165

0.060

61

1,380

1883.1

61.3

2.706

0.011

74

1,260

1939.3

24.1

3.636

0.033

91

4,430

1802.9

81.6

7.289

0.013

85

22,450

1937.2

0.95 1.54

9.0 49.5

3.447 3.002

0.023 0.074

42 145

6,240 340

1875.1 2283.3

40.6

1.28

40.6

3.046

-0.008

150

540

2222.2

0.7 16.2 9.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 77.0

65.1 5.7 51.4 22.6 76.4 63.2 9.9

1.04 0.91 0.77 0.72 1.33 1.07 0.63

65.1 5.7 51.4 22.6 76.4 63.2 9.9

2.677 2.211 2.864 2.971 5.525 3.516 2.657

0.101 0.100 0.089 0.042 0.021 0.036 0.081

86 107 98 53 119 143 122

2,250 520 1,220 9,130 3,320 1,000 670

1630.9 1732.4 2286.5 1638.1 1986.6 2317.5 1995.2

12

13.5

57.1

0.86

57.1

2.688

0.127

139

410

1660.4

77 19 24 99 65 81 86 30 95

4.4 13.7 9.6 0.5 75.5 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.00

21.2 15.1 25.9 12.7 18.9 22.2 49.1 42.9 79.2

0.66 1.26 0.98 0.95 0.51 0.85 0.89 1.10 0.96

21.2 15.1 25.9 12.7 18.9 22.2 49.1 42.9 79.2

3.295 3.041 2.111 3.381 3.028 2.728 3.425 3.082

0.059 0.092 0.040 0.033 0.051 0.039 0.012 0.045 0.034

89 137 138 17 129 97 112 124 57

2,380 420 800 4,610 2,950 2,860 3,430 3,500 13,770

2241.7 2206.2 1632.0 2204.7 2016.3 1975.7 1667.0 2128.8 1852.2

[12]

[14] [15]

[12]

[%]

[m pop]

[%]

[USD/ liter]

[%]

5 19 75 45 34 61 16 9 14 86 17

8.5 8.0 8.6 0.7 1.2 9.1 29.9 27.8 32.3 5.9 67.0

41.5 63.7 44.3 78.3 71.7 47.6 13.7 15.6 45.8 20.3 5.2

1.62 1.52 1.14 0.97 1.09 0.83 1.27 1.11 1.19 1.10 0.78

41.5 63.7 44.3 78.3 71.7 47.6 13.7 15.6 45.8 20.3 5.2

10

5.7

20.8

14

0.4

61.3

99

7.4

24.1

87

0.04

81.6

94 9

2.8 11.3

9.0 49.5

15

12.3

67 44 98 99 70 16 41

pump price for diesel fuel

[9] [11]

1.04

[19]

population weighted irradiation

[18]

[7][8] [9][10 ]

GDP per capita

ease of doing business rank

13

inflation rate consumer prices

12

Rwanda Zambia South Africa Botswana Namibia Ghana Kenya Uganda Tanzania Peru Ethiopia Papua New Guinea Solomon Island China The Bahamas Colombia Malawi Burkina Faso Mongolia Nepal Vietnam Mexico Cape Verde Lesotho Bangladesh Mozambiqu e Sri Lanka Madagascar Cambodia Thailand Indonesia Guatemala El Salvador Swaziland Antigua and

[16]

worldwide governance indicators: political stability

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

[17]

political stability (percentile rank)

data sources:

rural population without access to electricity

country

electrification rate

rank

corruption perceptions index

Table V: Country ranking 89 countries

[23] [kWh/ (m²*a)]

1962.2 2198.0 1908.3 1807.0

1943.0 2037.0 2302.1

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36 37

Barbuda Morocco Brazil

97 98

38

India

66

39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Togo Philippines Nicaragua Senegal Benin Fiji Sierra Leone Argentina Liberia Cameroon Honduras Bhutan Belize Burma Ivory Coast Dominican Republic Paraguay Jamaica Burundi The Gambia Chad Guyana Russia Bolivia Kiribati Ecuador Laos Egypt Guinea Bissau Gabon Angola Comoros Congo R Cuba Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe Republic of Palau Korea, Democratic Peoples Republic Federated States of Micronesia Suriname Ukraine Panama Sao Tome

20 90 72 42 25 60 5 97 3 49 70 69 92 13 47

3 0.6 3.2 388. 8 3.3 11.0 1.4 5.8 4.7 0.3 3.6 0.9 1.5 7.4 2.1 0.2 0.05 41.7 8.1

96

54 54 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 70 72 73 74 75 76

77

78 78 80 81 82

27.8 48.1

0.88 1.14

27.8 48.1

3.443 3.774

0.010 0.050

94 126

2,800 10,710

2212.3 1997.3

10.8

0.82

10.8

3.099

0.120

132

1,410

2089.3

38.2 6.6 26.4 33.0 56.1 39.6 37.3 45.3 29.7 26.9 27.4 69.3 44.8 11.3 7.1

1.17 0.84 0.99 1.34 1.21

2.382 2.644 2.530 2.871 2.970

0.94 1.05 0.96 1.10 0.92 0.82 0.98 0.80 1.30

38.2 6.6 26.4 33.0 56.1 39.6 37.3 45.3 29.7 26.9 27.4 69.3 44.8 11.3 7.1

162 136 118 154 175 77 141 113 151 161 128 142 93

520 2,140 1,130 1,030 750 3,710 320 9,120 250 1,150 2,030 2,090 4,060

1784.3 1932.3 2031.8 1808.7 1817.8 2132.4 2124.1 2178.2 1873.6 1828.8

1.490 2.234

0.018 0.038 0.055 0.013 0.023 0.055 0.166 0.108 0.074 0.013 0.047 0.070 0.009 0.015 0.017

167

1,150

1780.5 2090.8 2088.2 2322.6

0.3

46.2

1.03

46.2

2.590

0.063

108

5,210

2135.6

97 92 3 8 4 78 100 78 60 92 55 100

0.3 0.2 7.5 0.7 8.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.04 1.1 2.4 0.4

19.3 32.1 7.5 48.6 8.0 28.3 18.4 32.5 97.6 25.5 36.3 17.9

1.01 0.98 1.42

19.3 32.1 7.5 48.6 8.0 28.3 18.4 32.5 97.6 25.5 36.3 17.9

2.218 3.341 1.935 3.512 2.040 2.488 2.449 2.763 3.080 2.650 2.214 2.862

0.047 0.126 0.064 0.050 0.100 0.021 0.069 0.025

2,840 5,270 190 470 680 2,950 10,440 1,980 1,510 4,010 1,180 2,700

1909.7 2152.7 2026.3 2352.0 2175.6 2128.8 2015.7

0.036 0.060 0.113

102 88 169 149 183 114 120 153 115 130 165 110

12

1.3

23.6

23.6

2.202

0.025

176

580

2006.2

37 26 40 37 97 50

0.2 7.07 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.1

53.3 36.8 30.7 35.4 55.2 55.7

53.3 36.8 30.7 35.4 55.2 55.7

2.983 2.005 2.411 2.154 4.164 2.981

0.015 0.145 -0.001 0.050 -0.010 0.040

156 172 157 181

1841.6 2020.1 1402.8 1831.2

170

8,730 4,450 740 2,970 0 0

27

0.4

53.8

53.8

1.912

155

20,010

1860.9

42

6.3

13.2

13.2

2.230

171

590

1953.4

80

0.0

99.1

99.1

116

8,370

2165.9

26

8.0

30.2

30.2

54

0.05

92.0

92.0

79 100 88 49

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.04

50.9 42.0 46.7 52.4

1.31 0.85 0.72 0.54 0.28 0.97 0.32

0.43 0.84 1.24 1.07

1.15

1.12 0.92 0.77

50.9 42.0 46.7 52.4

2.461 2.996 3.189 2.452 2.592 5.742

1.010

3.029 2.297 3.266 2.986

2272.2 1727.5 1824.9 1898.4

2126.1

1813.0

0.069 0.094 0.035 0.129

140

2,680

1872.3

158 152

0 3,010 7,590 1,190

1981.5 2042.9 1903.1 1931.3

163

preprint to be published in the proceedings of the th 28 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, September 30 – October 4, 2013, Paris, France

83 84 85 86 87 88 88

and Principe Western Sahara Bermuda New Caledonia Guam Martinique Norfolk Island Northern Mariana Islands

24

0.0

41.5

87

0.01

63.7

80.2

80

0.05

44.3

37.7

2164.3

80 87

0.04 0.0

78.3 71.7

60.4 60.4

1665.1 2208.9

80

0.0

47.6

2201.1

80

0.01

13.7

2221.3

1980.0 89,240

1398.2

Table VI: Countries excluded for the ranking exclusion criterion

country data sources: Afghanistan Albania Algeria Andorra Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Barbados Belarus Belgium Bosnia-Herzegovina Brunei Bulgaria Canada Central African Republic Chile Congo DR Costa Rica Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominica Eritrea Estonia Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) Finland France French Guiana Georgia Germany Greece Greenland Grenada

electrification rate > 95 % AND rural population w/o electrification < 200,000 [7][8][9][10][11]

political stability