consistent covariance matrix estimation for linear processes

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spondence to: Michael Jansson, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, ... de Jong and Davidson ~2000!+ ... + On the other hand, de Jong.
Econometric Theory, 18, 2002, 1449–1459+ Printed in the United States of America+ DOI: 10+10170S0266466602186087

CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION FOR LINEAR PROCESSES MI C H A E L JA N S S O N University of California, Berkeley

Consistency of kernel estimators of the long-run covariance matrix of a linear process is established under weak moment and memory conditions+ In addition, it is pointed out that some existing consistency proofs are in error as they stand+

1. INTRODUCTION Suppose $Vt : t $ 1% is a sequence of random n-vectors generated by the linear process `

Vt 5

( Cl et2l + l50

This paper considers estimation of V 5 lim Tr` T 21 ( Tt51 ( Ts51 E~Vt Vs' !, the long-run covariance matrix of Vt + Consistency of kernel estimators of V is established under weak conditions on $Cl : l $ 0% and $et : t [ Z%+ In addition, it is pointed out that some existing consistency proofs are in error as they stand+ 2. RESULTS Let 7{7 denote the Euclidean norm, let 5 signify almost sure equality, and let Et21~{! denote conditional expectation with respect to the s-algebra generated by $es : s # t 2 1%+ The development of formal results proceeds under the following assumptions+ a+s+

A1+

( l50 7Cl 7 , `+ `

A2+ Et21~et ! 5 0, Et21 ~et et' ! 5 In , and $7et 7 2 % is uniformly integrable+ a+s+

a+s+

The assumption Et21 ~et et' ! 5 In implies the conditional homoskedasticity rea+s+ striction Et21 ~Vt Vt ' 2 Et21 ~Vt Vt ' !! 5 C0 C0' but does not impose restrictions on the form of the conditional covariance matrix because C0 5 In is not assumed+ a+s+

I am grateful to Don Andrews ~the co-editor! and two anonymous referees for helpful comments+ Address correspondence to: Michael Jansson, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 549 Evans Hall #3880, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880, USA; e-mail: mjansson@econ+berkeley+edu+

© 2002 Cambridge University Press

0266-4666002 $9+50

1449

1450

MICHAEL JANSSON

The uniform integrability condition is satisfied whenever et ; i+i+d+~0, In ! or supt[Z E7et 7 r , ` for some r . 2+ The best currently available consistency results for linear processes would appear to be those of Robinson ~1991! and de Jong and Davidson ~2000!+ The moment and memory assumptions of these papers are stronger than A1 and A2 in the leading special case where $et % is independent and identically distributed ~i+i+d+!+ When the bandwidth expansion rates recommended by Andrews ~1991! are employed, Robinson ~1991! requires A1 and supt[Z E7et 7 r , ` for some r . _52 + On the other hand, de Jong and Davidson ~2000! only require two finite moments but do require L 2 -near epoch dependence of size 2 _12 + In the linear process case, this condition implies ` ( l51 l w 7Cl 7 2 , ` for some w . 1, a stronger requirement than A1+ ' 21 3 Defining G 5 lim Tr` T 21 ( Tt52 ( t21 s51 E~Vt Vs ! and S 5 lim Tr` T T ' ' E~V V !, the matrix V can be decomposed as V 5 G 1 G 1 S+ In some ( t51 t t applications in nonstationary time series analysis, the matrix G is of interest in its own right+ Obvious examples include the cointegration procedures of Phillips and Hansen ~1990! and Park ~1992!+ In recognition of this fact, the present paper focuses explicitly on consistent estimation of G+ It is assumed that G is estimated by a kernel estimator of the form T t21

GZ T 5 T 21

((k t52 s51

S D

6t 2 s6 Vt Vs' , bT

where k~{! is a ~measurable! kernel function and $bT : T $ 1% is a sequence of bandwidth parameters+ The corresponding estimator of V is T

VZ T 5 T 21

T

((k t51 s51

S D

6t 2 s6 Vt Vs' , bT

which can be written as GZ T 1 GZ T' 1 SZ T , where SZ T 5 T 21 ( Tt51 Vt Vt ' + Because SZ T rp S under A1 and A2, VZ T is a consistent estimator of V whenever GZ T is a consistent estimator of G+ Consider the following assumptions on k~{! and $bT %+ A3+ ~i! k~0! 5 1, k~{! is continuous at zero and supx$0 6k~ x!6 , `+ ~ii! *@0,`! k~ O x! dx , `, where k~ O x! 5 supy$x 6k~ y!6+

A4+ $bT % # ~0,`! and lim Tr` ~bT21 1 T 2102 bT ! 5 0+ Assumption A3 generalizes Robinson’s ~1991! assumption A2~0! and would appear to be satisfied by any kernel in actual use+1 For instance, it holds for the 15 kernels studied by Ng and Perron ~1996!+ Moreover, it holds for all kernels in the class K 3 of Andrews ~1991! and Andrews and Monahan ~1992! and for all kernels satisfying Assumptions 1 and 3 of Newey and West ~1994!+ Assumption A4 is standard and holds whenever the bandwidth expansion rate coincides

COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION

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with the optimal ~under a mean squared error criterion! rate reported in Andrews ~1991, p+ 830!+ An important implication of A3~ii! is the following lemma+ LEMMA 1+ Suppose k~{! satisfies A3(ii) and suppose $bT % # ~0,`!. Then

( *k i51

T21

lim Tr` sup0,a#au bT21

S D* i abT

,`

for any 0 , au , `. Results similar to Lemma 1 have been stated ~without proof ! by Andrews ~1991, p+ 852!, Hansen ~1992, p+ 970!, and Hall ~2000, Lemma 2!+ As demonstrated by the examples that follow, the assumptions made in the cited papers do not imply lim Tr` bT21 ( T21 i51 6k~i0bT !6 , `+ Therefore, the proofs of Theorem 1 of Andrews ~1991! and Theorems 1–3 of Hansen ~1992! are in error as they stand, as are the proofs of Theorems 2 and 3 of Hall ~2000!+ The sequence $bT21 ( T21 i51 6k~i0bT !6% depends on k~{! through $k~ x! : x [ D%, where D 5 øT$1 ø1#i#T21 $i0bT %+ The set D is countable, so it is possible to have k~ x! 5 1 ∀x [ D under Hansen’s ~1992! Condition ~K! and Hall’s ~2000! Assumption 5+ In particular, if lim Tr` T 21 bT 5 0 it is possible to have

( *k i51

T21

lim Tr` bT21

S D* i bT

5 lim Tr`

T 21 5 `+ bT

Moreover, a kernel can have k~ x! 5 1 ∀x [ N and belong to the class K 1 of Andrews ~1991! and Andrews and Monahan ~1992!+ For any such kernel and any $bT % # N with lim Tr` T 2102 bT 5 0,

(*

T21

lim Tr` bT21

i51

S D*

i k bT

{~T21!0bT }

$

lim Tr` bT21

(

6k~ x!6

x51

5 lim Tr`

{~T 2 1!0bT } 5 `, bT

where {{} denotes the integer part of the argument+2 Assumption A3~ii! rules out pathological cases such as these+ The main result of the paper is the following theorem+ THEOREM 2+ Suppose A1–A4 hold. Then GZ T rp G and VZ T rp V. In applications, the vectors $Vt % are often functions of an unknown parameter vector u ~say!, Vt 5 Vt ~u0 !, where u0 denotes the true value of u+ Consider the estimators

1452

MICHAEL JANSSON

S D (( S D

6t 2 s6 Vt ~ uZ T !Vs ~ uZ T ! ', bT

T t21

GZ T ~ uZ T ! 5 T 21

((k t52 s51 T

VZ T ~ uZ T ! 5 T 21

6t 2 s6 Vt ~ uZ T !Vs ~ uZ T ! ', bT

T

k

t51 s51

where uZ T is an estimator of u0 satisfying the following assumption+ A5+ Either ~i! Vt ~u! 5 Vt ~u0 ! 2 ~u 2 u0 !X t , where T 102 ~ uZ T 2 u0 !dT21 5 Op ~1! and max1#t#T 7dT X t 7 5 Op ~1! for some sequence $dT % of nonsingular matrices or ~ii! T 102 ~ uZ T 2 u0 ! 5 Op ~1! and supt$1 E~supu[N 7~]0]u ' !Vt ~u!7 2 ! , ` for some neighborhood N of u0 +

Assumption A5~i! is Condition ~V3! of Hansen ~1992! whereas A5~ii! is equivalent to Assumption B of Andrews ~1991! under A1 and A2+ As in Hansen ~1992!, the following corollary is an immediate consequence of Theorem 2+ COROLLARY 3+ Suppose A1–A5 hold. Then GZ T ~ uZ T ! rp G and VZ T ~ uZ T ! rp V. Sample-dependent bandwidth parameters can also be accommodated+ Let

S D (( S D T t21

GZ T ~ uZ T , bZ T ! 5 T 21

((k t52 s51 T

VZ T ~ uZ T , bZ T ! 5 T 21

T

k

t51 s51

6t 2 s6 Vt ~ uZ T !Vs ~ uZ T ! ', bZ T

6t 2 s6 Vt ~ uZ T !Vs ~ uZ T ! ', bZ T

where $ bZ T : T $ 1% is a sequence of ~possibly! stochastic bandwidth parameters satisfying the following assumption+ A4 '+ bZ T 5 a[ T bT , where a[ T . 0, a[ T 1 a[ T21 5 Op ~1!, and $bT % satisfies A4+ COROLLARY 4+ Suppose A1–A3, A4 ', and A5 hold. Then GZ T ~ uZ T , bZ T ! rp G and VZ T ~ uZ T , bZ T ! rp V. 3. PROOFS Using change of variables, GZ T can be written as T21

GZ T 5

(k i51

S DS i bT

T 21

T2i

( Vj1i Vj'

j51

D

+

The proofs of Theorem 2 and its corollaries are based on this representation, Lemma 1, and the following lemmas+

COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION

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LEMMA 5+ Suppose A1 and A2 hold. Then

*

( @Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vj' !# * # bi cT 1 T 2102 hT ,

T2i

E T 21

0 # i # T 2 1,

j51

where $ bi : i $ 0% and $cT , hT : T $ 1% are nonnegative sequences with ` ( i51 bi , `, lim Tr` cT 5 0, and lim Tr` hT , `. LEMMA 6+ Suppose A1 and A2 hold. Moreover, suppose k~{! satisfies A3(i) and suppose $bT % # ~0,`! with lim Tr` bT21 5 0. Then lim Tr` supa$al 7E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !# 2 G7 5 0 for any 0 , al , `. Proof of Lemma 1+ Let kO be defined as in A3~ii!+ By monotonicity of k,O

* k S ab D* # kO S ab D # kO S a b D # a b E i

i

i

u

T

T

u

T

T

@~i21!0au bT , i0au bT !

k~ O x! dx

for any 1 # i # T 2 1 and any 0 , a # au + As a consequence,

( *k i51

T21

sup0,a#au bT21

S D* E i abT

# au

# au

@0, ~T21!0au bT !

E

@0,`!

k~ O x! dx

n

k~ O x! dx , `+

Proof of Lemma 5+ Because Vj1i Vj ' 5

S

`

( Cl ej1i2l l50

DS

`

( Cm ej2m m50

`

5

`

D

'

`

' ' Cm' 1 ( ( 1$l Þ m 1 i %Cl ej1i2l ej2m Cm' , ( Cm1i ej2m ej2m m50 l50 m50

where 1${% is the indicator function, it follows that T2i

T 21

( ~Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vj' !!

j51

`

5

( Cm1i m50 `

1

`

S

(( l50 m50

T2i

T 21

S

' 2 In ! ( ~ej2m ej2m

j51

Cl 1$l Þ m 1 i %T 21

D

T2i

Cm'

' ej1i2l ej2m ( j51

D

Cm'

1454

MICHAEL JANSSON

under A1 and A2+ Using subadditivity of 7{7 and the fact that 7AB7 # 7A7{7B7 for conformable A and B, this expression can be bounded as follows:

*

~Vj1i Vj ' 2 E~Vj1i Vj ' !! * ( j51

T2i

T 21

(* m50 `

#

( (* l50 m50 `

1

' ~ej2m ej2m 2 In ! * 7Cm 77Cm1i 7 ( j51

T2i

T 21 `

' ej1i2l ej2m ( * 7Cl 77Cm7+ j51

T2i

1$l Þ m 1 i %T 21

' ' 2102 Therefore, E7T 21 ( T2i hT , where j51 @Vj1i Vj 2 E~Vj1i Vj !#7 # bi cT 1 T `

bi 5

( 7Cm 77Cm1i 7,

m50

cT 5 sup

m$0 0#i#T21

hT 5

S

*

max

' ~ej2m ej2m 2 In ! * , ( j51

T2i

max E T 21

*

0#i#T21 l, m$0

By A1, `

( bi 5

i51

`

`

((

' ej1i2l ej2m ( * j51

T2i

sup E 1$l Þ m 1 i %T 2102

i51 m50

S( D

2

`

7Cl 7 +

l50

2

`

7Cm 77Cm1i 7 #

DS ( D

7Cm 7

, `+

m50

' 2 In : j $ 1% is a uniformly integrable martingale Each element of $ej2m ej2m difference sequence under A2+ As a consequence, for any « . 0 there is a finite constant l « ~independent of i and m! such that

*

' 2 In ! * # ~T 2 i !102 T 21 l « 1 ~T 2 i !T 21 « ( ~ej2m ej2m

T2i

E T 21

j51

# T 2102 l « 1 «, where the first inequality is obtained by proceeding as in the proof of Hall and Heyde ~1980, Theorem 2+22!+ Therefore, lim Tr` cT # « for any « . 0, so cT r 0+ Finally,

*

T2i

1$l Þ m 1 i %T 2102

' ( ej1i2l ej2m

j51

5 1$l Þ m 1 i %tr

FS

T

*

2

( j 51

DS '

T2i

2102

ej11i2l ej'12m

1

T2i

T 2102

T2i T2i

5 T 21

( ( 1$l Þ m 1 i %ej' 2m ej 2m ej' 1i2l ej 1i2l +

j151 j 251

1

2

1

( ej 1i2l ej' 2m

j 251

2

2

2

DG

COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION

1455

By A2, E~1$l Þ m 1 i %ej'22m ej12m ej'11i2l ej 21i2l ! 5 n 2 1$ j1 5 j 2 %1$l Þ m 1 i %, because, e+g+, E~ej'22m ej12m ej'11i2l ej 21i2l ! 5 E @Ej 22m ~ej'12m !ej 22m ej'11i2l ej 21i2l # 5 0 when j1 . j 2 and l . m 1 i, whereas ' ' ej2m !ej1i2l ej1i2l # 5 n 2 E~ej'22m ej12m ej'11i2l ej 21i2l ! 5 E @Ej1i2l ~ej2m

when j1 5 j 2 5 j and l . m 1 i+ Therefore,

*

' ( ej1i2l ej2m *

T2i

E 1$l Þ m 1 i %T 2102 #E

S

S*

j51

T2i

1$l Þ m 1 i %T 2102

' ( ej1i2l ej2m

j51

*D 2

((

j151 j 251

D

102

T2i T2i

5 T 21

102

n 2 1$ j1 5 j 2 %1$l Þ m 1 i %

5 @1$l Þ m 1 i %n 2 T 21 ~T 2 i !# 102 # n, where the first inequality uses the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality+ In particular,

S( D

2

`

lim Tr` hT # n{

, `,

7Cl 7

l50

n

as was to be shown+ Proof of Lemma 6+ Under A1 and A2, `

E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !# 5

( 1$i # T 2 1%k i51

for any a . 0, whereas G 5 of 7{7, 7E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !# 2 G7

( * 1$i # T 2 1%k i51 I

#

*

S

D

1 sup 6k~ x!6 1 1 { x$0

T2i 2 1 {7E~V11i V1' !7 T

i abT

i abT

`

T2i E~V11i V1' ! T

` ( i51 E~V11i V1' !+ Therefore, by subadditivity

i abT

# max 1$i # T 2 1%k 1#i#I

i abT

S D S D S D

( * 1$i # T 2 1%k i5I11 `

1

S D

*

T2i 2 1 {7E~V11i V1' !7 T

*

I T2i 2 1 { ( 7E~V11i V1' !7 T i51

*

7E~V11i V1' !7 ( i5I11

1456

MICHAEL JANSSON

for any I $ 1+ Because

S

D

`

`

sup 6k~ x!6 1 1 { x$0

( i50 7E~V11i V1' !7 , `,

( 7E~V11i V1' !7 i5I11

can be made arbitrarily small ~under A3~i!! by taking I large enough+ For any given I,

*

S D *S D S* S D *

sup max 1$i # T 2 1%k

a$al 1#i#I

# sup max

a$al 1#i#I

#

sup 0#x#I0~al bT !

k

T2i 21 T

T2i 21 T

i abT

5 sup max k a$al 1#i#I

i abT

i abT

*

* * S ab D*D

2 1 1 T 21 i k

i

T

6k~ x! 2 16 1 T 21 I sup 6k~ x!6 x$0

whenever 0 , al , ` and T $ I 1 1+ Lemma 6 now follows because the expression on the last line tends to zero whenever A3~i! holds and n lim Tr` bT21 5 0+ Proof of Theorem 2+ By subadditivity of 7{7, 7 GZ T 2 G7 # 7 GZ T 2 E~ GZ T !7 1 7E~ GZ T ! 2 G7, 7 VZ T 2 V7 # 7 VZ T 2 E~ VZ T !7 1 7E~ VZ T ! 2 V7+ Now, E ~ SZ T ! 5 S, so 7E ~ VZ T ! 2 V7 # 2{7E ~ GZ T ! 2 G7 r 0 by Lemma 6+ Moreover, 7 VZ T 2 E~ VZ T !7 # 2{7 GZ T 2 E~ GZ T !7 1 7 SZ T 2 E~ SZ T !7+ By Lemma 5,

*

@Vj Vj ' 2 E~Vj Vj ' !# * r 0+ ( j51 T

E7 SZ T 2 E~ SZ T !7 5 E T 21

In particular, SZ T 2 E~ SZ T ! 5 op ~1!+ The proof of Theorem 2 can be completed by showing that E7 GZ T 2 E~ GZ T !7 r 0+ By subadditivity of 7{7,

(*

T21

7 GZ T 2 E~ GZ T !7 #

i51

k

S D* * i bT

{ T 21

( @Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vi' !# * +

T2i j51

COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION

1457

Using Lemmas 1 and 5 and the notation from Lemma 5,

S D* S( D S( D

(*

T21

E7 GZ T 2 E~ GZ T !7 #

i51

k

i bT

*

{E T 21

( @Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vi' !# *

T2i j51

T21

# k~0! O

i51 `

# k~0! O

( *k i51

T21

bi cT 1 T 2102 hT

S

S D* i bT

i51

( *k i51

T21

bi cT 1 ~T 2102 bT hT ! bT21

S D *D i bT

r 0+

n

Proof of Corollaries 3 and 4+ Corollary 3 is a special case ~with a[ T 5 1! of Corollary 4, so it suffices to prove the latter+ Under A4 ', inft$T Pr ~al # a[ t # au ! can be made arbitrarily close to unity for sufficiently large T and some 0 , al # au , `+ Consequently, it suffices to show that for any 0 , al # au , `, sup 7 GZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 G7 5 op * ~1!,

al #a#au

which is easily shown to imply supal #a#au 7 VZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 V7 5 op * ~1!, where op * ~1! denotes convergence to zero in outer probability+3 Now, sup 7 GZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 G7 #

al #a#au

sup 7 GZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 GZ T ~u0 , abT !7

al #a#au

1 1

sup 7 GZ T ~u0 , abT ! 2 E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !#7

al #a#au

sup 7E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !# 2 G7,

al #a#au

so the proof can be completed by showing that each term on the right-hand side is op * ~1!+ As in the proofs of Theorems 2 and 3 in Hansen ~1992!, Condition A5 implies that

S

7 GZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 GZ T ~u0 , abT !7 # ~T 2102 bT !{ bT21

( *k i51

T21

S D *D i abT

{QT ,

for any a . 0, where QT is Op ~1! and does not depend on a or bT + Now, T 2102 bT r 0 and lim Tr` supal #a#au bT21 ( T21 i51 6k~i0~abT !!6 , ` for any 0 , al # au , ` ~Lemma 1!, so sup 7 GZ T ~ uZ T , abT ! 2 GZ T ~u0 , abT !7 5 op * ~1!+

al #a#au

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MICHAEL JANSSON

Next, by the properties of k~{!, O 7 GZ T ~u0 , abT ! 2 E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !#7

S D*** ( S D*

( *k i51

T21

#

T21

#

kO

i51

i abT

i au bT

( @Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vi' !# *

T2i

T 21

T 21

j51

( @Vj1i Vj' 2 E~Vj1i Vi' !# *

T2i j51

for any 0 , al # a # au , `+ By Theorem 2 and its proof, the last line is op ~1!, so sup 7 GZ T ~u0 , abT ! 2 E~ GZ T ~u0 , abT !!7 5 op * ~1!+

al #a#au

Finally, supal #a#au 7E @ GZ T ~u0 , abT !# 2 G7 r 0 by Lemma 6+

n

NOTES 1+ A3 is weaker than Robinson’s ~1991! A2~0! because it is not assumed that *R 6K~l!6dl , `, where K~l! 5 ~2p!21 *R k~ x!exp~ilx! dx+ A well-known example of a kernel satisfying A3 but violating *R 6K~l!6dl , ` is the uniform kernel k~ x! 5 1$6 x6 # 1%, where 1${% is the indicator function+ ` 2+ One kernel k [ K 1 such that k~ x! 5 1 ∀x [ Z is k~{! 5 ( l50 k l ~{!, where, for each l $ 0 and any x [ R,

k l ~ x! 5

5

1 2 ~l 1 1! 2 ~6 x6 2 l !,

if l # 6 x6 # l 1 ~l 1 1!22,

1 2 ~l 1 1! 2 ~l 1 1 2 6 x6!,

if l 1 1 2 ~l 1 1!22 # 6 x6 # l 1 1,

0,

otherwise+

It is easily seen that k [ K 1 + In particular, k is continuous and

E

R

`

6k~ x!6 dx 5 2 (

l50

E

@0,`!

`

p2

l50

3

k l ~ x! dx 5 2 ( ~l 1 1!22 5

, `+

3+ To avoid measurability complications, convergence in outer probability ~rather than convergence in probability! is considered+

REFERENCES Andrews, D+W+K+ ~1991! Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation+ Econometrica 59, 817–858+ Andrews, D+W+K+ & J+C+ Monahan ~1992! An improved heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimator+ Econometrica 60, 953–966+ Hall, A+ ~2000! Covariance matrix estimation and the power of the overidentifying restrictions test+ Econometrica 68, 1517–1527+ Hall, P+ & C+C+ Heyde ~1980! Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application+ New York: Academic Press+ Hansen, B+E+ ~1992! Consistent covariance matrix estimation for dependent heterogeneous processes+ Econometrica 60, 967–972+

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1459

de Jong, R+M+ & J+ Davidson ~2000! Consistency of kernel estimators of heteroscedastic and autocorrelated covariance matrices+ Econometrica 68, 407– 423+ Newey, W+K+ & K+D+ West ~1994! Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation+ Review of Economic Studies 61, 631– 653+ Ng, S+ & P+ Perron ~1996! The exact error in estimating the spectral density at the origin+ Journal of Time Series Analysis 17, 379– 408+ Park, J+Y+ ~1992! Canonical cointegrating regressions+ Econometrica 60, 119–143+ Phillips, P+C+B+ & B+E+ Hansen ~1990! Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I~1! variables+ Review of Economic Studies 57, 99–125+ Robinson, P+M+ ~1991! Automatic frequency domain inference on semiparametric and nonparametric models+ Econometrica 59, 1329–1363+