Contribution of energy efficiency measures to climate ... - Fraunhofer ISI

Scientific Support in the Preparation of Proposals for an EU Energy Roadmap

Concrete Paths of the European Union to the 2°C Scenario: Achieving the Climate Protection Targets of the EU by 2050 through Structural Change, Energy Savings and Energy Efficiency Technologies

Accompanying scientific report – Contribution of energy efficiency measures to climate protection within the European Union until 2050

Project Number: 405/2010 FKZ: UM 10 41 913 Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Karlsruhe, 20 March 2012

Authors: Tobias Boßmann Phone: 0721/6809-257 E-Mail: [email protected] Wolfgang Eichhammer Phone: 0721/6809-158 E-Mail: [email protected] Rainer Elsland Phone: 0721/6809-438 E-Mail: [email protected] Fax 0721/809-272 Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe

Executive Summary Given the risks associated with global warming and its potential consequences due to the uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the European Union (EU) has pledged to reduce its emissions by 20% until 2020 and by at least 80% until 2050 compared to 1990 levels. In this context, the energy sector plays a crucial a role, since approximately 80% of European GHG emissions in 2009 were from this sector. Moreover, this sector offers the chance of almost complete decarbonisation based on a variety of technologies ranging from carbon-neutral electricity generation through highly-efficient energy conversion processes to energy-saving options. The political challenge here consists of developing a set of technology options which will ensure the shift takes place towards a sustainable European energy system which still complies with the constraints imposed by competitiveness and the security of supply. Since energy efficiency represents a powerful tool to tackle these objectives, the present study analyses in detail to what extent energy savings can contribute to GHG emission mitigation in the EU until the year 2050 and which technologies are required for the energy saving potentials identified. This report provides detailed information. The policy report gives an overview of the main insights. The technology-based, bottom-up approach also sets this study apart from most of the other existing reports. The study comparison carried out clearly shows that most of the time energy efficiency options are not being considered to their full extent as a technology option for carbon mitigation in the various scenarios. Moreover, the level of detail regarding the deployment of efficiency measures is well below the accuracy usually applied to the analysis of the energy supply side, particularly the power sector. The analysis of the different sectors reveals the largest final energy saving potential to be in the buildings sector, whereas the highest financial benefits can be gained in the transport sector. In 2050, the overall final energy demand could be reduced by 57% compared to the baseline projection, triggering cost savings of about 500 billion €’05. With regard to primary energy demand, efficiency improvements when converting primary to final energy are also considered. The shift towards a highly efficient power sector results in reductions of 25% in the primary energy demand and 15% in GHG emissions. Saving options related to final energy use deliver additional reductions of 42% and 52%, respectively. Finally, the energy-saving potentials identified are compared to the energy demand trajectories presented in the recently published EU Energy Roadmap 2050 of the European Commission.

Contents Page 1

BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 1

2

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................... 5

3

STUDY COMPARISON FOR THE CONTRIBUTION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE EU27 TO THE

2050 CLIMATE TARGETS ................................................................................................................. 6

4

3.1

INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 6

3.2

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND ........................................................................................................ 9

3.3

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND........................................................................................................... 12

3.4

SECTORAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................ 14

3.5

ELECTRICITY DEMAND ............................................................................................................. 16

3.6

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND – OTHER ENERGY CARRIERS THAN ELECTRICITY ............................................. 17

3.7

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE STUDY COMPARISON............................................................................. 19

QUANTIFICATION OF TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ENERGY SAVING AND EMISSION

REDUCTION POTENTIALS.............................................................................................................. 22 4.1

METHODOLOGY OF POTENTIAL DETERMINATION .......................................................................... 23

4.1.1

Methodology to determine the technical final energy saving potentials ..................... 24

4.1.2

Adjustment of data due to new framework conditions ................................................ 33

4.1.3

Specific issues concerning the methodology to determine economic final energy saving

potentials ................................................................................................................................... 36 4.1.4

Methodology to determine the technical primary energy saving potentials................ 42

4.1.5

Methodology to determine the greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials .......... 46

4.2

ENERGY SAVING AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIALS OF „CALCULATED WEDGES“ ........................... 48

4.2.1

Households, tertiary - Building envelope ...................................................................... 53

4.2.2

Households, tertiary - Heating and cooling systems ..................................................... 61

4.2.3

Households, tertiary - Lighting...................................................................................... 69

4.2.4

Households, tertiary - Green ICT ................................................................................... 77

4.2.5

Households - Household appliances ............................................................................. 86

4.2.6

Industry - Paper and pulp industry ................................................................................ 94

4.2.7

Industry - Steam and hot water generation................................................................ 102

4.2.8

Industry - Electric drives .............................................................................................. 111

4.2.9

Industry – E-drive system optimisation ....................................................................... 119

4.2.10

Transport - Technical improvements ...................................................................... 126

4.2.11

Transport – Behavioural changes ........................................................................... 134

4.2.12

Transport – e-Mobility ............................................................................................ 141

4.3

TECHNICAL ENERGY SAVING POTENTIALS OF “ESTIMATED WEDGES” ................................................ 147 Household sector ........................................................................................................................... 147

Tertiary sector ................................................................................................................................ 147 Industry sector ............................................................................................................................... 150 Transport sector ............................................................................................................................. 154 Energy conversion .......................................................................................................................... 156 Energy transmission and distribution ............................................................................................. 157

4.4

OVERVIEW OF TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ENERGY SAVING AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIALS ..... 161 EU-wide saving potentials on sectoral level................................................................ 161

4.4.1

Household sector ................................................................................................................................ 161 Tertiary sector ..................................................................................................................................... 166 Industry sector .................................................................................................................................... 169 Transport sector .................................................................................................................................. 173

4.4.2

Overview of potentials on national levels ................................................................... 177 Germany ......................................................................................................................................... 180 France ............................................................................................................................................. 182 Italy ................................................................................................................................................. 184 Spain ............................................................................................................................................... 187 Poland............................................................................................................................................. 190 Comparison of national saving potentials ...................................................................................... 192

5

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS ......................................................................... 195 5.1

OVERALL FINAL ENERGY SAVING POTENTIALS.............................................................................. 195

5.2

OVERALL PRIMARY ENERGY SAVING AND GHG EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIALS ............................ 203

5.3

REARRANGEMENT OF WEDGES ................................................................................................ 211

ANNEX I

SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS ...................................................................................... 218

ANNEX II

OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL WEDGES FOR IN-DETAIL ANALYSIS .............................. 221

II.I

Introduction..................................................................................................................... 221

II.II

Historic development of primary and final energy demand in the EU27 .................... 222

II.III

Selection of wedges .................................................................................................... 226

II.III.I

Buildings ..................................................................................................................... 228

II.III.II

Appliances and IT ................................................................................................... 229

II.III.III

Industry sector – Cross-cutting technologies .......................................................... 230

II.III.IV

Industry sector – Process technologies ................................................................... 231

II.III.V

Transport sector ..................................................................................................... 232

II.III.VI

Conversion sector ................................................................................................... 233

II.IV

Summary of potential estimation ............................................................................... 234

ANNEX III

METHODOLOGY OF THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF CHP PLANTS .......................... 237

ANNEX IV

ENERGY SAVINGS THROUGH ELECTRIC VEHICLES .................................................. 240

IV.I

Detailed calculation methodology .............................................................................. 240

IV.II

Scenario assumptions and results ............................................................................... 244

ANNEX V

ELECTRICITY SAVING POTENTIALS ......................................................................... 247

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 249 GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................................. 257

1

1

Background

It is the aim of the European Union (EU) to limit in a worldwide cooperation the global temperature rise in this century to not more than 2°C beyond the preindustrial level because there is strong scientific evidence that a larger temperature increase may imply considerable danger for the development of life. If 2°C are not to be exceeded, it is necessary that the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reach their maximum between 2020 and 2030 and are then reduced to half the amount of 1990 by 2050 1. In order to achieve this target both developed and developing countries need to make considerable efforts, independent from the discussion on historic responsibilities for the greenhouse gas effect. The developed countries and in particular the European Union need to play a prominent role and reduce the emissions by at least 80 % in 2050 2, 3. Potential pathways towards this 80% reduction target were analysed in the framework of the EU Energy Roadmap 2050, which was published in December 2011 by the European Commission (European Commission, 2011e). Apart from a Reference Scenario, five decarbonisation scenarios were analysed, which combine to varying degrees the low-carbon options of renewables, nuclear, energy efficiency and CCS. The scenarios show that meeting the 80% GHG reduction target is feasible regardless of the technology mix applied.

1

Proposal of the EU Commission for a comprehensive ambitious new global climate protection agreement (Post Kyoto): in order to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C, worldwide emissions should reach their maximum before 2020 and fall to half the level of 1990 by 2050. This target was also announced at the G8 Summit in summer 2008. In order to reach this target, developed countries should reduce their emissions by 30 % up to 2020 (compared to 1990) while the developing countries, except the poorest have to reduce their emissions by 15-30 % compared to Business-as-usual. European Commission (2009): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen. COM(2009) 39 final. Brussels, 28.1.2009.

2

In October 2009 the EU Head of States decided on a long-term reduction target of 80-95 % by 2050 in comparison to 1990. Council of the European Union, 15265/1/09 REV 1, Brussels, 1 December 2009 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/110889.pdf and http://ec.europa.eu/governance/impact/planned_ia/docs/225_ener_low_carbon_energy_system_2 050_en.pdf

3

European Climate Change Foundation ECF: Roadmap 2050 http://www.roadmap2050.eu/

2 In March 2011, the EU Commission presented its 2050 Low Carbon Economy Roadmap 4, which has as a target the development of the EU climate (and energy) policy for the next 40 years. This roadmap was the first official document to set the scene for the European energy and climate policy up to 2050. The analysis shows that all sectors need to contribute in different proportions to the target, reaching from a reduction in GHG emissions of 42-49 % for the agricultural sector compared to 1990 up to 93-99 % for the power sector (Table 1-1). By 2030 a reduction of 40 to 44 % in GHG emissions is required for the EU to keep the path. Table 1-1:

Sectoral reductions required in the EU Low Carbon Roadmap

Source: (European Commission, 2011a)

In order to reach these ambitious long-term targets the EU needs to reduce its emissions as an interim target by around 30 % by 2020 compared to 1990. The European Union decided in 2008 the European Climate and Energy Package with concrete measures and directives up to 2020, which shall reduce the GHG emissions in the period 1990-2020 by 20 % respectively 30 %, if the necessary conditions are fulfilled 5. Part of this package are the increase of the share of renewables in the total EU energy consumption to 20 % by 2020 and the reduction of energy consumption by 20 % compared to the trend up to 2020. This last target has not been translated in the Climate and Energy Package of 2008 into a legally binding text. Nevertheless, the European Council has included in March 2010 the 20 % energy efficiency target – together with the two other climate protection and energy

4

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, SEC(2011) 287 final, SEC(2011) 288 final, SEC(2011) 289 final, Brussels, 8.3.2011, COM(2011) 112 final. (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/ roadmap/ index_en.htm)

5

Both at EU-level as well as on national European levels there are increasing voices which demand to take the steps towards a 30 % GHG-target for the EU, in particular when it is considered that the emissions in the EU develop less rapidly than originally expected due to the financial and economic crises, http://www.co2-handel.de/article185_14724.html.

3 policy targets – as one important key target in the central economic and competition strategy of the EU 6. In the document "Europe 2020: Strategy for intelligent, sustainable and integrated growth " 7 this target is together with the other targets of the strategy taken up in a yearly progress monitoring, in particular based on indicators. The recent discussion concerning a possible mandatory target for energy efficiency shows that this element is on one hand still insufficiently anchored in the EU and Member States legal building but is on the other hand the most central element of any climate strategy. At present, only the Energy Efficiency and Energy Services Directive 2006/32/EC foresees in a legal text up to 2016 a reduction of the energy consumption in the European Union by 9 % (indicative reduction target for energy consumption). National Energy Efficiency Action Plans NEEAPs shall explain how the targets are reached. In addition, many EU Member States have national energy efficiency and saving targets. Germany for example has committed in the Energy Concept from September 2010 to reduce energy consumption by 50 % in 2050 and electricity consumption by 25 % and confirmed these targets in the update of the Energy Concept from June 2011. At EU-level the actualisation of the EU efficiency strategy was published in March 2011 in the form of an EU Energy Efficiency Plan EEP 8. The EU fixes a two-step approach, pushing a possible overall mandatory energy efficiency target back to 2014 (originally 2013) but advancing in the field of individual energy efficiency policies that was affirmed in the proposal for a new Energy Efficiency Directive 9 from June, 22nd 2011. The EEP details sector by sector envisaged energy efficiency actions, in particular in the building sector. At the same time, due to the economic and financial crises, the very volatile energy prices at the international energy markets, increasing concentration of energy resources on few supplying countries with markets that are largely regulated by the

6

European Council: Conclusions, 25/26 March 2010, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/113591.pdf

7

http://ec.europa.eu/eu2020/pdf/COMPLET%20%20DE%20SG-2010-80021-06-00-DE-TRA-00.pdf (S. 34)

8

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions,, Energy Efficiency Plan 2011, SEC(2011) 275/276/277/278/279/280, Brussels, COM(2011) 109/4 (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/roadmap/index_en.htm)

9

“Finally, the proposal provides for the establishment of national energy efficiency targets for2020 and requires the Commission to assess in 2014 whether the Union can achieve its target of 20 % primary energy savings by 2020. The Commission is required to submit its assessment to the European Parliament and the Council, followed, if appropriate, by a legislative proposal laying down mandatory national targets.” (European Commission, 2011c, p. 5)

4 state, temporary supply bottlenecks and new resource which are more difficult to open up, factors like supply security and the cost of energy supply take more weight in the public perception. This makes it necessary to develop a detailed medium to long-term perspective for energy efficiency, as a main contributor to the problem solutions.

5

2

Objectives of the study

The main purpose of this study is to analyse in depth the potentials and contributions of energy efficiency and energy saving options to the climate policy targets in the EU up to 2050 with quantified intermediate targets for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 und 2050. A second study is investigating in detail the design of a European electricity sector based on renewables to up to 100 % (cf. “Tangible ways towards climate protection in the European Union - EU Long-term scenarios 2050”). In the present study, a guiding path is to be developed for these time horizons underlain with concrete technical potentials and cost curves. The whole study is divided into the following working packages: 1. Potential analysis to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the increase of energy efficiency and energy savings by 2050 in the form of “wedges”. 2. Cost and benefit analysis of climate protection measures through enhanced energy efficiency and energy savings. 3. Contribution of energy efficiency enhancement to climate protection in 2050. 4. Short-term advice concerning questions related to EU climate and energy policy.

After determining the potentials, the results are compared to the scenario results of the recently published EU Energy Roadmap 2050 (European Commission, 2011e). This report presents the detailed results of the work package one to three. Apart from the technical and economic potential analysis of energy efficiency technologies to reduce final as well as primary energy demand and the emission of greenhouse gases, this report includes a comparison of existing studies of the European energy market. An additional policy report summarizes the main insights of this study and the resulting conclusions.

6

3

Study comparison for the contribution of energy efficiency in the EU27 to the 2050 climate targets

3.1

Introduction

In this section a number of energy forecasts are analysed regarding the projected final and primary energy demand, the future electricity demand and the contribution of energy efficiency measures to energy savings up to 2050. Table 3-1 lists the studies included in this report, their key features and the scenarios analysed. All the data publicly available have been included in this study comparison. However, there are big gaps in data availability and inconsistent assumptions that limited the choice of analysed data and aspects. Due to the fact the reports focus on different geographical regions (EU27 or EU27 +2, including Switzerland and Norway), the overall figures might not be directly comparable. Therefore relative changes are calculated and compared with each other. In the following sections only studies reaching up to 2050 were considered (while the overview in Table 3-1 also mentions further studies reaching up to 2030, in particular the two studies I-TREN2030 and HOP! focusing on the transport sector in the first, and on high oil prices in the second case).

7

Table 3-1:

Overview of EU Energy scenarios

Study PRIMES: Baseline 2009 European Commission: ADAM European Commission: WETO-H2 11 IEA: World Energy Outlook 2010 IEA: Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 12 GP - Greenpeace /EREC: Energy [R]evolution ECF/McKinsey: Roadmap 2050

Final energy consumption compared to Base Year (BY), by 2050

Base Ref Ref 450ppm 400ppm Ref H2 CCC CPS NPS 450ppm

Final energy consumption compared to Reference Scenario by 2020 2030 2050 -1% -2% 0% -12% -22% -38% -16% -29% -48% -3% -5% -4% -8% -11% -10% -2% -5% -4% -9% -

Blue Scenario

yes

-

-

-31%

-

Reference

GP-Ref

-

-

-

+20% (‘07)

Advanced [R]evolution

GP-Adv. E[R]

-8%

-18%

-36%

-24% (‘07)

Reference 80% RES

Ref 80% RES

-

-

-

-

Time PubGeographihoriScenarios lished cal spread zon Baseline 2009 2010 2030 EU27 Reference Reference 2009 2050 EU27 +2 10 450ppm 400ppm Reference EU27+2 2007 2050 +TR H2 Case +Balkan Carbon Constraint Case CPS 2010 2035 EU27 NPS 450ppm 2010 2050

OECDEurope 13

2010 2050 EU27 2010 2050 EU27+2

Code

2030: +4% (BY: 05) 2030: +1% (’05) +14% (‘05) -30% (‘05) -43% (‘05) +20% (‘01) +17% ('01) +8% (01) 2035: +10% (08) 2035: +2% (‘08) 2035: -3% (‘08)

10 EU27 +2 comprises EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland 11 Has not been included in the detailed scenario comparison due to the differing geographical spread 12 Has not been included in the detailed scenario comparison due to differing geographical spread and lack of data 13 OECD-Europe comprises all European Union Member countries of the OECD, i.e. countries in EU15 plus the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, Turkey

8

Study

iTREN 2030

HOP!

European Commission: EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Final energy consumption compared to Base Year (BY), by 2050

Ref

Final energy consumption compared to Reference Scenario by 2020 2030 2050 -

Integr.Tr.

-12%

-20%

-

2030: -6% (‘05)

Ref

-

-

-

Primary: +12% (‘05)

150

-

-17%

-14%

Primary: +4% ('05)

220

-

-11%

-12%

Primary: +2% (‘05)

Reference

Ref

-

-

-

+5% (’10)

Current Policy Initiatives

CPI

-6%

-4%

-5%

-0% (’10)

Energy efficiency

High EE

-9%

-14%

-40%

-36% (’10)

Time PubGeographihoriScenarios lished cal spread zon Reference (pre-crisis) 2010 2030 EU27 Integrated Transport (with crisis) Reference 150 Smooth (high oil 2007 2050 EU27 price) 220 Smooth (high oil price) 2011 2050 EU27

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

Code

2030: +18% (‘05)

9

3.2

Primary energy demand

Figure 3-1 shows the projected primary energy demand in different scenarios for the EU27 14. Since the primary energy demand can be calculated by using different methods (e.g. the calculation of the primary energy demand for RES) an entire comparability of the data cannot be guaranteed. An analysis of the calculation methods applied has not been undertaken. The red lines represent the primary energy demand forecast according to the PRIMES 2009 scenarios. They represent the business-as-usual trend, considering no further effort than national and EU policies implemented until April 2009 (cf. Baseline scenario) or adopted until December 2009, respectively (cf. Reference scenario). Figure 3-1:

Total primary energy demand by scenario, EU27


14 In the case the data was only available for EU27+2 (ADAM report and ECF report), an adjustment was carried out, reducing the overall energy demand by eliminating Norway and Switzerland according to their share in the year 2008

10 The green dotted line represents the reduction pathway towards the 20 % energy saving target for 2020, as announced in the 2006 Energy Efficiency Action Plan (European Commission, 2006). Since this target is related to the pre-recession scenario of the PRIMES 2007 baseline, the green graph in Figure 3-1 represents the pathway from the PRIMES 2007 baseline value in 2010 (1852 Mtoe) towards the absolute target of 1602 Mtoe in 2020 (instead of 1971 Mtoe in the 2007 baseline scenario) 15. Figure 3-1 clearly depicts that only the ambitious Greenpeace scenario (which is called “advanced Energy [R]evolution” scenario) complies with the -20 % efficiency target. However, there are further essential differences among the studies examined: • According to the IEA-450ppm scenario, by 2020 primary energy demand decreases only by 7 % compared to the EU baseline scenario. By 2035 it will decline by 9 % compared to the IEA Baseline scenario and less than 5 % compared to the 2008 emissions level, accounting for almost 340 Mt GHG emissions abatement. The main drivers are greater efficiency in direct combustion of fossil fuels and lower electricity demand attributable to greater efficiency in end use. • Considering no further policies (Current policies scenario, CPS), an increase of primary energy demand will occur, comparable with the demand level of the PRIMES baseline. The implementation of broad policy commitments that have already been announced (see New Policies Scenario, NPS) would only lead to a stagnation of energy demand by 2030. • Under the Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution scenario, the most ambitious primary energy efficiency measures are assumed, targeting on an energy demand reduction of 11 % by 2020 16 and 40 % by 2050 (compared to the Greenpeace Reference scenario). • The ADAM scenarios represent a compromise of the first two cases, reaching a primary energy demand reduction of about 28 % in the 450ppm scenario and 36 % in the 400ppm scenario compared to the ADAM Reference scenario. The final energy demand reduction in the ADAM-400ppm scenario is higher than in the Greenpeace Advanced Energy [R]evolution sce-

15 The target value of 1602 Mtoe is calculated by applying the 20 % reduction on the forecasted energy demand of PRIMES 2007 for energy uses, excluding non-energy uses.

16 This implies that the Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution scenario only reaches the absolute level of the primary energy 20 % reduction target set by the PRIMES 2007 baseline due to the already rather moderate baseline development of the Greenpeace Reference scenario.

11 nario. However, regarding primary energy, the Greenpeace scenario reaches higher energy saving targets. This is linked to the fact, that the Greenpeace scenario is mainly based on Renewable energy sources (see Figure 3-2). Since the primary energy demand of RES is normally calculated by using a conversion efficiency of 100 %, an increasing share of RES goes along with a relative decrease in primary energy demand. • Under the Reference scenario of the EU Energy Roadmap 2050 is approximately stagnating on today’s level, whereas the most recent policy actions and the consequences of the financial and economic crisis from 2007/2008 result in long-term savings of nearly 8 % compared to 2010 (cf. CPI scenario). The most ambitious energy demand trajectory is determined under the efficiency scenario, where primary energy demand is reduced by about 38% compared to the Reference projection. The 20 % efficiency target is missed in all Roadmap scenarios. Regarding the general fuel composition of primary energy demand, the scenarios provide different approaches towards a decarbonised energy system (cf. Figure 3-2). The IEA-450 ppm scenario suggests an immediate increase of nuclear energy sources and RES, compensating for a declining consumption of coal, natural gas and oil. On the long term view (Blue map scenario) all newly installed coal and most of the gas power plants are equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology. The combination of CCS and nuclear power ensures a stabilization of CO2 emissions at the 450 ppm level despite the limited exploitation of energy efficiency measures and RES. The Greenpeace scenario is mainly based on RES (86 % in 2050) and oil and gas, aspiring to a phase out of nuclear power in the medium term (around 2030) and of coal power in the long run (by 2050). The ADAM-400ppm scenario combines the further extension of RES and nuclear power (33 % and 19 % respectively in 2050) in order to realize the phase out of carbon intensive coal and a reduction in oil and gas consumption. The Energy Roadmap’s Reference scenario mainly relies on oil (32 % of primary energy consumption in 2050). Nuclear and renewable energy sources increase their contribution up to 17 % and 20 %, respectively. Under the efficiency scenario, the trend is partly reversed. Only 15 % of the entire primary energy demand in 2050 is covered by oil whereas RES contribute 43 % and gas 24 %.

12 Figure 3-2:

Total primary energy demand by fuel, EU27


3.3

Final energy demand

Figure 3-3 shows the final energy consumption of EU 27 divided by sectors and by fuels. In 2008, the total final energy demand of 1170 Mtoe is consisting of the transport (32 %), industry (27 %), household (25 %) and tertiary sector (12 %). The main end use energy carriers are oil products, different kinds of natural gas derivatives and electricity. The various final energy consumption projections differ a lot from one to another (cf. Figure 3-4). While some forecasts expect a decrease in energy demand even in the business-as-usual scenarios (PRIMES Baseline 2009 and ADAM Reference scenario) others forecast a further increase (such as the IEA Current policies scenario) if no additional measures are undertaken.

13 Figure 3-3:

Historical final energy demand in EU 27

Source: Eurostat

Regarding the sectoral spread of energy demand reductions in the decarbonisation scenarios, there is not a particular sector that can be identified as the crucial one. Transport and residential sector experience the strongest decrease in energy demand, however other sectors register a declining demand, too. Further details can be found in the paragraph on the sectoral analysis and Figure 3-5.

Figure 3-4:

Final energy demand in the different scenarios, EU27


14 The IEA-450ppm scenario does apply efficiency measures as a main tool for GHG emissions abatement, but equally prioritises the use of CCS technology and nuclear power. That is the reason for a first increase in final energy demand that drops only after 2020. Considering the introduction of a number of new policies aiming on the 450ppm target would lead to a decrease in final energy demand of only 9% by 2030, compared to the reference development. In contrast, the decarbonisation scenarios of the EU Energy Roadmap, ADAM and Greenpeace envisage strong efficiency measures from the very beginning. Comparing the gradual increase of energy savings (see Table 3-2), an equally spread increase can be observed in the ADAM scenarios, whereas the Greenpeace scenario attains its maximal rise in the 2030 to 2040 decade. Under the efficiency scenario of the Energy Roadmap, energy savings are stepwise increased, reaching their maximum reduction after 2030. The high energy saving rates in the ADAM scenario are based on the fact that the total energy savings are higher than in any other scenario. According to Greenpeace, the condition for the realisation of the mentioned energy saving potentials consists of binding energy saving targets, strict efficiency standards for vehicles, improved heat insulation and building design as well as efficient electrical machines and drives.

Table 3-2:

3.4

Final energy demand reduction compared to the base year (BY)

BY - ‘20

2020‘30

2030‘40

2040‘50

BY - ‘50

IEA-450ppm

+1.3%

-1.6%

-

-

-

ADAM-450ppm

-9.8%

-11.4%

-10.7%

-9.9%

-42%

ADAM-400ppm

-13.9%

-14.4%

-12.8%

-11.4%

-52%

GP-adv. E[R]

-4.4%

-6.9%

-9.8%

-2.9%

-24%

Roadmap-High EE

-3.5%

-8.3%

-12.7%

-12.0%

-36%

Sectoral analysis

Comparing the two most energy consuming sectors (industry and transport, cf. Figure 3-5) shows a much higher decrease in the transport sector in all scenarios,

15 where energy demand can be reduced by up to 50 % by 2050 (cf. Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution scenario). Already in the first decade energy savings of up to 15 % can be realised in the most ambitious cases. The ADAM scenario assumes a decreasing energy demand even in the Reference scenario. In the industry sector, this development might be explained by an autodiffusion of energy and cost-efficient industry technologies due to international competition. Decreasing energy demand in the transport sector can be traced back to decreasing population numbers (decrease of 5 % between 2010 and 2050 in all scenarios) and a shift to highly end-use efficient electric vehicles. Building related energy demand is supposed to increase in all business-as-usual trajectories. However, if efficiency measures are undertaken, demand can be reduced by more than 60 % according to the ADAM 400ppm scenario. Figure 3-5:

Final energy demand in the buildings 17, industry and transport sector 18, EU27


17 comprises the demand of households, services and other sectors

18 The 20 % energy saving target is not represented in this chart since it is related to primary energy demand on the overall level.

16

3.5

Electricity demand

Electricity as one of the final energy carriers is analysed more in detail due to its increasing significance. Figure 3-6 depicts the future electricity demand. The total electricity consumption in the decarbonised scenarios is marginally lower (cf. GP scenario) or even above the demand in the Reference scenarios (cf. ECF scenario). Only in the ADAM-450ppm/-400ppm scenarios, a decrease of electricity demand can be observed due to strong efficiency measures. The shift from conventional drive technologies of cars with internal combustion engines to electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids as well as a shift from road to rail transport (modal shift) lead to an essential increase in electricity demand in the transport sector. Additionally, the substitution of thermal heating in buildings and industry applications by electric heat pumps is amplifying the electrification effect. A virtually decarbonised power sector (as foreseen in most of the mitigation scenarios) is the main driver for this shift, enabling the buildings and transport sectors to reduce CO2 emissions by additional electrification. Figure 3-6:

Final electricity demand by sector, EU27


Figure 3-7 illustrates exemplarily the compensation effect and the reasoning for the strong increase in electricity demand throughout the decarbonisation scenarios. As

17 can be clearly seen, a higher deployment of electric transport means and electric heating compensates for the electricity demand reduction through increased efficiency in buildings and industry.

Figure 3-7:

Compensation effect of energy efficiency by electrification

Source: (ECF, 2010a)

3.6

Final energy demand – other energy carriers than electricity

Regarding the final energy demand being covered from any other energy carrier than electricity, three main observations can be made: • The consumption of oil and gas derivatives is declining in all reference and decarbonisation scenarios. Limited availability of crude oil 19 and the associated rise in prices are supposed to be the main drivers for such a development that is even more distinct in the decarbonisation scenarios.

19 According to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010, oil extraction will stagnate on nowadays’ level

before declining within the coming years. See IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010, page 122

18 • Renewable energy sources compensate the decreasing use of oil derivatives (e.g. biofuels) and cover an increasing share in heat supply (e.g. wood pellets). In decarbonised energy scenarios the deployment of renewable raw material grows faster due to corresponding policies. However, the total exploitation of those renewable resources differs among the scenarios based on different assumptions on the sustainable potential of biomass. • While electricity demand is supposed to rise even in most of the decarbonisation scenarios, the net final energy savings are realized in the field of the other energy carriers. In the Reference scenarios, however, final energy demand remains in a range of about 15 % above or below today’s level.

Figure 3-8:

Final energy demand by energy carrier (except electricity), EU27


19

3.7 •

Conclusions from the study comparison Regarding the methodology:

The main focus of all studies is set on the reduction of CO2-emissions. Energy efficiency is considered as one of the most powerful options to reduce GHG emissions. However, renewable energy sources (RES), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and other “pro-active” measures (such as e-Mobility, nuclear power supply) are discussed much more in detail than energy saving and energy efficiency measures. Most of the studies lack a detailed analysis of single energy efficiency technologies. Only the overall energy saving potential and some general energy efficiency measures are roughly drafted in most of the studies. It can therefore be concluded that none of the studies (except the ADAM study) included a detailed ambitious analysis of energy efficiency options up to 2050. The power sector represents the main if not the only subject analysed in the majority of the studies (e.g. European Climate Foundation, “Roadmap 2050”). Electricity generation and transport options are discussed in detail whereas the building and transport sector despite their high energy efficiency potentials attract much less attention.

•

Regarding the results:

A general finding of all studies is the fact that ambitious energy efficiency policies are needed in order to stabilize CO2 emissions on a level of 450ppm. There is a common understanding that although energy efficiency measures can be combined with a number of other CO2 abatement options (such as RES, nuclear power, CCS), they represent an indispensable option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Neglecting this option cannot be compensated by an increased deployment of one of the options mentioned above. Nevertheless final energy demand projections in the majority of the scenarios considered are not falling below the 50 % threshold of the respective reference energy demand in 2050. The EU announced in its 2008 climate and energy package the non-binding target of reducing primary energy demand by 20 % compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline scenario by 2020 and reconfirmed it in the Energy Efficiency Plan from March 2011. This 20 %-target is only met in the Greenpeace decarbonisation scenario. Even under the decarbonisation scenarios of the EU Energy Roadmap 2050 this target is missed.

20 Apart from the ADAM report, all studies come to the conclusion that electricity demand will increase in the decarbonisation scenarios. This development is due to a further electrification in the industrial, heat and transport sector (such as electric vehicles, heat pumps for industrial and residential use). The easier realization of decarbonisation of electricity represents the main driver for the shift from other energy carriers towards electricity. Energy efficiency measures are only a minor driver for this shift. As a general conclusion for the development of the electricity demand it can also be stated that most of the scenarios lack a detailed analysis of the demand development in the context of ambitious electricity reduction policies. Assigning carbon a price is a major pre-requisite for successful climate policy, even though it is not a sufficient stand-alone instrument. However, all studies confirm that a worldwide, multi sectoral and strictly organised emissions trading scheme is an important incentive for a further increase in energy efficiency.

•

Comparative evaluation:

Although some scenarios forecast an increase in final energy consumption if no further political measures are undertaken, such a development seems rather unlikely compared to the historical evolution of energy demand. Hence, a rather stagnating energy demand at the level of the last two decades of about 1,200 Mtoe seems most likely to arise for the EU27 in the absence of further policies to reduce demand (reference development). The reduction scenarios also differ widely. In many cases the focus is on CO2reduction and energy efficiency is not developed to its full potential and other options take renewables, CCS or nuclear take over. Therefore, none of these scenarios, except the ADAM scenarios which carried out a more detailed demand analysis, reach a level of 50 % demand reduction as compared to present. The increasing electricity demand in the majority of the scenarios is subject to discussion: Strict housing insulation standards for new dwellings such as specified in the recently recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive 20 will drive a strong decrease in heat demand. Consequently, the need for heat pumps might turn out less important than assumed in most of the studies. Moreover, the little heat demand of such buildings might be covered by direct electric heating coming from intermittent RES. However, the effect of electric vehicles can be assumed as an important driver for a moderate increase in electricity demand.

20 Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the energy performance of buildings

21 On the basis of this analysis of different energy scenarios, a strong need for a more in-depth analysis of single energy efficiency technologies is identified. In order to exploit the energy saving potential that is advocated as an important option in the whole set of all decarbonisation scenarios, concrete technologies need to be evaluated regarding their potential and their cost-effectiveness.

22

4

Quantification of technical and economic energy saving and emission reduction potentials

This chapter presents the results of work package 1.3 work package 2 and work package 3. The main outcome is the technical and economic assessment of energy saving potentials based on specific efficiency technologies and the resulting primary energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions. All efficiency technologies are grouped in so-called “wedges”. According to S.Pacala und R.Socolow wedges are subdivisions of necessary energy savings into comparable units (Pacala, 2004). These units are sufficiently small that they represent a single technology or a selection of technologies that can be tackled with well-defined policy packages but still represent ambitious levels of savings. The aim of the subdivision is to identify different options for action and to show that the target can be achieved. Further information on the wedges philosophy can be found in Annex II.I. In a first step the wedges were shaped according to their topical similarities. Within a second step, the wedges were split into two groups with regard to their impact on energy savings and their ability of clear definition. The detailed selection method is described in Annex II.III. The first group of wedges, which are selected to undergo a detailed analysis, are named “calculated wedges”. They are explicitly described in paragraph 4.1.4 using a specific fact sheet format. The second group of wedges contains the so-called “estimated wedges”, that are rather shortly explained in 4.3 The third step consists of a subsumption of all wedges on a sectoral level (for the household, tertiary, transport and industry sector, cf. 4.4.1) as well as on a national level for a selection of specific countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland, cf. 4.4.2). Subsequently, the highest level of aggregation is reached by summarizing all final energy saving potentials. (see paragraph 5.1). Step five consists summarizing the overall primary energy savings and potential greenhouse gas emission reductions that result from the final energy saving potentials (cf. 5.2). In a last step, the wedges identified earlier are rearranged with regard to primary energy savings and the achievement of the European Union’s 20 % efficiency target by 2020 (cf. section 5.3). The chapter is concluded by a taut summary and an interpretation of the overall results.

23 In order to better understand the potentials identified, the main assumptions and the adjustment of data are given beforehand (see 4.1).

4.1

Methodology of potential determination

This section presents the methodology used to determine the technical and economic energy saving potentials and the consequential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in the following sections. This study does not contain original modelling work but is mainly based on two previous studies: •

The European-wide study on energy efficiency potentials up to the year 2030 (ISI, 2009a).

•

The ADAM report for the time horizon between 2030 and 2050 (ISI, 2009c).

Given the fact that the economic boundary conditions as well as the energy prices have changed since the underlying reports were made, explanations are provided regarding the adjustment of data. Due to the fact that no original modelling work was performed up to 2050, a certain number of simplifications had to be made. We will provide in particular the following information: •

Short presentation of the underlying studies

•

Which models and data have been used? What is the origin of the framework assumptions (e.g. energy prices)?

•

How were the results exploited and to which questions answers should be provided?

•

How do we know the diffusion rate of energy efficient technologies? How do we determine autonomous progress?

•

How exact are the results? How sensitive are they against changes?

•

How conservative are the results (e.g. with respect to energy prices)?

•

How are cost/benefits calculated?

•

How is the conversion of the final energy saving potentials into primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials carried out?

24

4.1.1

Methodology to determine the technical final energy saving potentials

Underlying studies The technical and economic potentials presented in the following sections are based on two studies: •

One European-wide study on energy efficiency potentials up to the year 2030 carried out in the frame of the EU Directive for Energy Efficiency and Energy Services ESD (“ESD potential study”. This study provides until 2030 (in fact the projection goes up to 2035), a detailed technology specific description identifying the main energy saving drivers and saving technologies in a detailed manner (ISI, 2009a).

•

For the time horizon between 2030 and 2050, a further general outlook on the energy saving potentials is given. Due to the high long term uncertainty, the displayed potentials are not directly related to specific end-uses. These data are based on the ADAM report (ISI, 2009c). The ADAM scenarios were described in section 3.

•

For comparison purposes, the PRIMES 2009 baseline was extrapolated for the time beyond 2030, using the scaled development of the ADAM report. This approach enables the consideration of the economic crisis (see section 4.1.2).

Models and data sources used for the evaluation of energy efficiency potentials in the ESD Potential Study The evaluation of energy efficiency and energy savings potentials at the demand side in the ESD potential study was based on the bottom-up MURE simulation tool. MURE (Mesures d'Utilisation Rationnelle de l'Énergie) has a rich technological structure for each of the four demand sectors (residential, transport, industry and services) in order to describe the impact of energy efficient technologies (Figure 4-1). Only a simulation model with sufficient technological details such as MURE is well adapted to the purpose; Macro- and General Equilibrium models do not have enough details in their sectoral representation for the required work. During the work performed in ISI (2009a) the technological details of the model were further enriched to include more details on electric appliances and in particular on IT appliances and IT infrastructures such as servers, as well as on industrial crosscutting technologies such as electric motors.

25 The structure described in a technological manner in MURE comprises modules for: o

Residential Sector Buildings

o

Residential Electric Appliances

o

Transport Sector

o

Industrial Sector: Processes

o

Industrial Sector: Electric Cross-cutting Technologies (pumps, ventilators, compressed air…)

o

Industrial Sector: Electric Cross-cutting Technologies (pumps, ventilators, compressed air…)

o

Service Sector Buildings

o

Service Sector Electric Appliances

o

IT Appliances (all sectors)

o

Demand-side CHP (all sectors)

As an example the representation of industrial processes is shown in Table 4-1. The potentials for decentralised renewables such as solar thermal collectors and decentralised PV installations were evaluated with the Green-X model run by TU Vienna in cooperation with Fraunhofer ISI. This model was used extensively to determine renewables potentials in the past and was used in the ESD potential study in support of the MURE model. The main data sources used in the study are also shown in Figure 4-1: •

The statistical information was mainly derived from Eurostat data and the Odyssee Database on Energy Indicators (http://www.odysseeindicators.org/) which is a harmonised data collection of national energy data.

•

For the projections of activities determining the energy consumption this was mainly data from the PRIMES 2007 baseline (more information on this baseline is given below). This was a pre-recession baseline and corrections were made in the present study to take into account the changed context (see section 4.1.2).

•

Further, a multitude of technical information concerning energy efficiency technologies for the various end-uses was collected in ISI (2009a) and discussed in expert rounds in order to describe as far as possible future developments and autonomous progress for the different technologies.

26 As mentioned above, to ensure compatibility with official EU Commission projections, it was decided to rely in ISI (2009a) on the choices of drivers of the baseline scenario calculated with the PRIMES model (PRIMES 2007 projections). From these projections drivers such as the number buildings, energy prices, the development of value added of industry etc were chosen in order to be consistent with these projections.

27

Figure 4-1:

Models and data sources used for the evaluation of energy efficiency potentials in the ESD Potential Study

Analysis of Energy Saving Potentials Feeding sources:  Existing technology information within MURE and other sectoral models used by the team  Odyssee Database  Sectoral and country studies

MURE Demand Simulation Modules  Residential Sector Buildings

Demand Technology Database

 Residential Electric Appliances  Transport Sector  Industrial Sector: Processes  Industrial Sector: Cross-cutting Technol.

Induced Technological Change

Feeding sources:  Official DG TrEn and national projections

Scenario Database

 Official EU and national statistics

Induced Technological Change

 Service Sector Buildings  Service Sector: Electric Appliances  IT Appliances (all sectors)  Demand-side CHP (all sectors)

RES Technology DataGreen-X Model for renewables  (decentral) RES-E  (decentral) RES-H

Source: (ISI, 2009a)

Output Database

Communication of Results

28 Table 4-1:

Example for the technology-rich structure of the demand side model used: Processes by sub-sector implemented in the industrial submodel of MURE

Iron and Steel

Non-ferrous metals

Paper and Printing

Sinter

Primary Aluminium (Hall-Heroult)

Paper

Blast furnace

Secondary Aluminium

Mechanical Pulp

EAF

Aluminium Further Treatment

Chemical Pulp

Rolled steel

Primary Copper

Recovered Fibres

Coke oven

Secondary Copper

Smelting reduction

Copper Further Treatment

Direct reduction

Primary Zinc: Imperial Smelting Zinc: Galvanizing

Glass

Cement

Chemicals

Container glass

Clinker burning-Dry

Chlorine-Hg (mercury)

Flat glass

Clinker burning-Semidry

Chlorine-Membrane

Other glass

Clinker burning-Wet

Chlorine-Diaphragm

Quarrying

Polypropylene (PP)

Raw material preparation

Polyethylene (PE)

Cement Grinding

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)

Lime milling Gypsum milling

Source: (ISI, 2009a) However, some differences exist between the PRIMES 2007 baseline and the baseline from ISI (2009a) concerning the assumptions on the success of important policies The PRIMES 2007 Baseline scenario included policies and measures implemented in the Member-States up to the end of 2006. Differences with the ISI (2009a) arise from the fact that the PRIMES baseline includes impacts from the Energy Performance Directive of Buildings, while the baseline in ISI (2009a) excludes the impacts from the Directive; only the Autonomous Progress Scenario + Recent Policies of this study does include the success of this policy. Further, in difference to previous PRIMES projections success was not taken for granted for the CO2 agreement for cars, although some further progress was assumed. As the potentials from ISI (2009a) are referring to the Autonomous Progress Scenario, compared to the present, some part of the potentials may have been taken up to the point indicated by the “Autonomous Progress Scenario + Recent Policies” sce-

29 nario of ISI (2009a). In the following section 4.1.2 an approximate adjustment is made of the energy efficiency potentials already taken up by ongoing energy efficiency policies after 2006.

Methodology for the determination of the technical and economic potentials based on a scenario approach In this section we will briefly describe the main methodological issues for the determination of the technical and economic potentials which are discussed in more detail in ISI (2009a), in particular: •

The dependency of the technical and economic potentials on a scenario approach

•

The determination of autonomous progress for energy efficiency.

It may at first seem strange to define energy efficiency potentials - and in particular technical potentials - in a scenario context: a certain technology may be able to save X % of energy as compared to a reference technology and hence the technical potential of this technology is X %. However, this is too simplistic a view. Such type of potentials may only be an indication of the long-term technical potentials and could rather be called theoretical potentials. More realistic technical potentials need to take into account the dynamic aspects in the uptake of technologies as well as the time horizon during which a technology may reasonably be available. Two examples illustrate this issue: •

For example buildings may reach zero-energy level or even become positive energy buildings. This is, however, only possible from today’s perspective for new buildings at some reasonable cost. Existing buildings must be replaced by new buildings to achieve the same level of performance. However, it is a very strong assumption that buildings are torn down for energy efficiency purposes before the end of their lifetime. ISI (2009a) has taken the stake that energy efficiency is not a major driver for destroying old building stock. In the future, this may not be totally excluded but would need quite dramatic events to have such actions to be taken.

•

The same arguments are valid for cars: experimental results have shown that very light cars with special constructions may run 1500 km with 1 Litre of gasoline (that is 1/15 of a litre per 100 km). In theory, if all friction losses are overcome, cars may even run without fuel consumption at all. However,

30 this again is unlikely to occur in the time span of a few decades and is not very helpful when considering concrete policies. It is therefore necessary to go beyond the simple (static) theoretical potentials which - depending on the time horizon – are largely overestimating the (dynamic) technical potentials available at a given point in time. Hereby it is important to specify the meaning of the word “dynamic” which is underlying the scenario approach of ISI (2009a). Realistic technical energy saving potentials depend on the future development of drivers such as the economic or social development (e.g. the stock of existing buildings, appliances, equipment of a type may be increasing or decreasing over time etc.). This takes into account that there are reinvestment cycles which depend on factors other than energy efficiency. ISI (2009a) has taken a rather conservative approach in that (with few exceptions) the usual investment cycles are not substantially modified. This is why the diffusion of energy efficiency potentials takes time and the X% of the technological potential mentioned above is not penetrating the market immediately but takes at least the lifetime of the reference technology. Although, ISI (2009) took a rather conservative approach with respect to the degree to which behaviour can be influenced. One exception in ISI (2009a) to this was the assumption that the refurbishment cycles for buildings can be enhanced by policy measures but which seems a rather realistic assumption. In ISI (2009a) it was further assumed that behavioural or comfort factors would be influenced in a limited manner. For example, although it was assumed that the speed of trucks may be influenced in order to enhance energy efficiency or that the size of cars could be indirectly influenced by policy measures such as the “Bonus-Malus” System of France (cars with low CO2 emissions – generally small cars - have an incentive compared to large cars), it was thought unrealistic that the size of houses may be strongly influenced by energy efficiency policies. This may have to be reconsidered if the impacts of climate change become more dramatic. Another aspect is that there are also competing energy efficiency technologies which may penetrate with different speed. For example with respect to economic potentials one may have energy efficient technologies which save less energy but cost less and may, at intermediate levels conquer the market and open up the path for the next more efficient technology (this is for example the case of electric A-class refrigerators which have opened up the way for the more efficient A+++ refrigerators. Though such intermediate steps may not be necessary, the real world development has shown that most development towards energy efficient technolo-

31 gies is evolutionary and that it is unlikely that intermediate generations of energy efficiency technologies are not required. A third dynamic aspect to be considered is that technological innovation (learning by searching) and scale effects (learning by doing) lead to a decrease in the cost of energy saving technology over time. All this discussion shows that it is reasonable to state that the dynamic dimensions of the energy efficiency potentials lead to the necessity to define scenarios to realise the potentials taking into account the (largely unchanged reinvestment cycles) and competing energy efficiency options. In addition, it is important to understand that technology diffusion is a process in time which might occur autonomously during normal reinvestment cycles or could be influenced by market energy prices and/or energy efficiency policies. This is why the dynamic technical and economic potentials have to be determined with respect to a reference development which has a similar development of drivers for energy consumption and penetration of (less efficient) reference technologies. (Figure 4-2) summarises the different dynamic aspects of the potential determination which are:  The general respect of reinvestment cycles which is expressed in the development of the drivers for energy consumption over time and (with few exceptions) largely determined by factors outside the field of energy efficiency policies (dynamics in drivers)  The competition and dynamics over time between more or less energy efficient savings options (dynamics in technology diffusion)  Learning and scale effects which lead to a cost decrease of energy efficient technologies over time (dynamics in technology innovation) The first two dimensions are important for the definition of all potentials, including the technical potentials while the last dimension is important for the definition of economic potentials.

32 Figure 4-2:

Explanation of the notion "dynamic" in the context of economic and technical potentials


For the calculation of these potentials in the scenario approach described above the following three steps were carried out in ISI (2009a) for each energy use:  Step 1: Set up saving options. For this step it was necessary to define first possible saving options and then describe their technical performance as well as their possible penetration in the future  Step 2: Describe cost development. For each of the technology options identified in the previous step it is necessary to describe the investment costs and maintenance costs of each option. These cost categories are described in general as differential costs compared to a standard technology or standard development, unless there is an acceleration of the investment cycle beyond the usual values. In such cases the full costs or a larger cost are applied to the options scaled to the acceleration of the penetration of the energy efficient technologies. In addition it is also necessary to consider that the differential costs will evolve dynamically over time and decrease down to the level of the less efficient reference technology or even further. Over the past decade an important body of empirical evidence has been gathered on energy efficient demand technologies which shows this important effect.

33  Step 3: Set up the scenario mix. The different options defined in Step 1 may generally be realised altogether in a certain mix up to a given time horizon. It is therefore necessary to describe different scenarios of how the different options mix, depending on the potential considered. In the scenario approach developed in ISI (2009a) it was necessary to describe how much of the potentials are realised autonomously. The potentials specified here and in that study refer to a reference development based on autonomous progress. This is a difficult exercise which may be based on the progress achieved in the past. However, the past development may have been influenced by higher (or lower) energy price levels or by energy efficiency measures of the past. Energy efficiency may also be influenced by structural changes or comfort factors in positive or negative way (for example the energy consumption of houses per square metre increased in the past due to increasing room temperatures despite better building regulations: there is about 7 % increase in energy consumption for every degree higher room temperatures. Therefore, the consideration of past developments was complemented with expert interviews on the drivers of progress of energy efficient technologies in the absence of policies.

4.1.2

Adjustment of data due to new framework conditions

Adjustments of the potentials to new frame conditions Due to the fact that the main studies the report is based on, ISI (2009a) and ISI (2009c), did not consider the effects of the economic crisis, a subsequent adjustment of the energy saving potentials was necessary. Both studies used the macroeconomic parameters provided by the PRIMES 2007 report (European Commission, 2008). The updated version, PRIMES 2009 (European Commission, 2010), forecasted a much more cautious increase of GDP and final energy demand. Thus, the ratio between both final energy demand developments in the older and the newer version of the PRIMES forecasts was used as an index for scaling down the energy saving potentials. Where the information was available, the final energy demand of specific sectors or even user/appliance groups was used. This approach does not consider second order effects due to the change in frame conditions. For example, the influence of other driving parameters such as new energy price projections (compared to the former assumptions) could not be considered in detail since this would require a completely new modelling of the potentials. However, using the final energy demand index mentioned before, partly accounts for the price changes, too. The energy price changes where nevertheless

34 taken into account in the revision of the cost curves as the basis for the determination of economic potentials (see next section). Rebasing the potentials in the new baseline in such a way does also take into account changes in energy efficiency policies which have occurred between 2007 and early 2009 to the degree that this is included in PRIMES. However, in specific countries this does not include important policies since 2009. In particular in Germany progress has occurred since then with the ENEV 2009 which brought important changes for the existing buildings, which have to be renovated almost in all occasions when there is more than just repainting of the facade (e.g. when the plaster is changes of a house). Figure 4-3:

Comparison of the final energy demand under PRIMES 2007 and PRIMES 2009

Source: (European Commission, 2008), (European Commission, 2010)

Adjustments of the potentials to new energy prices The version of the PRIMES projections used was European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 – Update 2007 21. This baseline took into account policy developments up to the end of 2006 and was based on higher energy import prices compared to the 2005 edition of the baseline but considerably lower than the PRIMES 2009 baseline and present price levels which exceed 100 Dollar/barrel in nominal terms. For example the oil price level of 62.8 US$2005 (real prices 2005) in 2030 (Table 4-2) roughly present today’s oil price level which to a certain degree may be influenced by political events in the Arab world and other political events but also the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels. It is difficult to provide for an exact estimate of

21 European Commission (2008): European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 – Update 2007. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/trends_2030_update_2007/index_en.htm

2008.

35 the impacts of higher energy prices on the potentials without full modelling. Nevertheless, adjustments were made to take into account changes to energy prices between PRIMES 2007 and PRIMES 2009 projections in particular for the economic calculations. Table 4-2:

Prices for EU imports of fossil fuels in $/boe in US$ used in PRIMES (2007) and ISI (2009a), as well as PRIMES (2009)

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

PRIMES 2007 (US$2005/boe) Oil

54.5

54.5

57.9

61.1

62.3

62.8

Gas

34.6

41.5

43.4

46.0

47.2

47.6

Coal

14.8

13.7

14.3

14.7

14.8

14.9

PRIMES 2009 (US$2008/boe) Oil

59.4

71.9

72.6

88.4

101.6

105.9

Gas

39.7

44.2

49.5

62.1

74.6

76.6

Coal

14.0

17.2

21.7

25.8

29.2

29.3

Source: (European Commission, 2008 and European Commission, 2010)

From the changes in import prices new final user prices were calculated under the assumption that there were no changes in the tax regimes for energy carriers in the different countries (Figure 4-4).

36 Figure 4-4: New end-user prices used for the economic calculations up to 2050


4.1.3

Specific issues concerning the methodology to determine economic final energy saving potentials

Cost-benefits Cost-benefits were calculated in ISI (2009a) from an end-user perspective by taking into account: •

differential investments of energy efficient technologies as compared to the standard technologies,

•

by making assumptions about the possible cost degression considering empirical knowledge of the previous introduction of energy efficient technologies,

•

by annualising the differential investment using discount rates which are differentiated across sectors

•

by considering the annual costs of saved energy.

From this net benefits were calculated and translated into cost-reduction curves which present the net cost of the saved energy (annualised investments mines the annual costs of saved energy) versus the energy efficiency potentials available at that net cost. No consideration was given to external costs which would further shift

37 the balance in favour of energy efficiency options as compared to the fossil fuel alternatives. Assumptions on discount rates used in ISI (2009a) are reported in Table 4-3 together with PRIMES discount rates. All rates are in real terms, i.e. after deducting inflation. There are major differences between the two studies because PRIMES converts non-economic barriers to high discount rates what distorts the information on real costs of new technologies. The study ISI (2009a) distinguishes the Low Policy Intensity (LPI) scenario with high discount rates which reflects economic barriers to some degree (but still considerably lower than PRIMES 2007, except for the industrial sector), and the High Policy Intensity (HPI) scenario with low discount rates indicating policies to overcome barriers. Major differences between the HPI and the LPI are also that non-economic barriers are removed to a large degree in the first while they continue to act in the second: e.g. in the HPI it was assumed that due to increased control of compliance with building regulation and training of architects and installers, gaps to full compliance were largely removed. Table 4-3:

Discount rates used in PRIMES 2007 and ISI (2009a) ISI (2009a) PRIMES

LPI

HPI

Industry

12%

30%

8%

Services and agriculture

12%

8%

6%

Households

17.5%

8%

4%

Private passenger transport

17.5%

8%

4%

Trucks and inland navigation

12%

8%

6%

Public transport energy investment

8%

8%

4%

Abbreviations: Low Policy Intensity (LPI) scenario and High Policy Intensity (HPI) scenario Source: (European Commission, 2008) for the PRIMES column; (ISI, 2009a)

In the original study ISI (2009a) the energy efficiency options in the cost curves were classified into three groups: •

Options which in 2020 were economic also under the large discount rates of the Low Policy Intensity (LPI) scenario shown in Table 4-3 (these potentials were called LPI-Potentials).

•

Options which in 2020 were economic under the smaller discount rates of the High Policy Intensity (LPI) scenario shown in Table 4-3 (these potentials were called HPI-Potentials). The low discount rates are justified by supporting policies which help to overcome existing barriers.

38 •

Options which in 2020 were not economic even under the smaller discount rates of the High Policy Intensity (LPI) scenario shown in Table 4-3 (these potentials were called Technical Potentials). Due to the rather conservative approach in ISI (2009), this does not include very exotic options and may be called near-economic potentials.

This division into three groups of potentials was also kept in this study; however, in order to avoid confusion with the original study and also because the potentials and cost figures were extended to 2050, three new names were used to designate the potentials and which also may better represent the nature of these three groups: •

“Low-hanging fruits (LHF)”: These are potentials which are economic already under high discount rates reflecting high risk perception.

•

“High-hanging fruits (LHF)”: These are potentials which are economic under low discount rates reflecting the removal of economic and non-economic barriers by different policy instruments.

•

“Immature fruits (IF)”: These are potentials which are neareconomic under low discount rates but may be realised under acceptable additional costs.

These expressions will be used throughout this chapter to characterise these three groups of potentials. The following has to be kept in mind, however: -

The allocation of the options on the three groups in this study is not fully identical in all cases with the allocation in ISI (2009) to the three groups LPI, HPI and Technical. This is due to the shift in 2020 of the options to the new energy price levels. For example some options in the building sector which were still near-economic in ISI (2009) have become economic under the higher energy carrier assumptions and are correspondingly allocated to the “High-Hanging Fruits HHF” and not the “Immature Fruits IF”.

-

The division of the energy efficiency options on these three groups was made for the year 2020. The allocation of an option was also kept for the following decades 2030, 2040 and 2050 in order to be able to read the cost curves more easily. However, some options may have moved from one category to the other due to the increase in energy carrier prices and due to the cost degression assumed for the options. This may have happened for near-economic potentials in 2020 which could become economic in 2030 or later.

39

Extension of the cost curves to 2050 The cost curves available from ISI (2009a) were available for 2020 and had to be extended to 2030/2040/2050, by the following procedure: -

From the cost curves developed for 2020, the original investment costs (in real prices) were recalculated taking into account the original energy carrier prices.

-

From the investment costs we recalculated the new cost curves for 2020/2030/2040/2050 taking into account the new energy prices of Figure 4-4. This took also into account that larger potentials are available for the decades beyond 2020.

-

As the original cost curves includes a certain amount of technological learning which is derived from typical learning curves at the demand side, similar cost degression levels are also included in the following decades. We did, however, not make the assumption that with strong energy efficiency policies over time up to 2050 this learning effect could be enhanced. This is likely but so far there is no empirical evidence for this assumption. In a conservative approach it was therefore assumed that also in the future new generations of energy efficient technologies would come in at about the same cost differential as during the decade up to 2020 and that those costs will decrease over time until the next generation of more energy efficient technology comes in, again at a cost level like the previous generation.

-

Finally, we had to take into account an evolution of the energy carrier mix up to 2050 in agreement with ISI (2009) and the ADAM-Study, which reflects the penetration of certain technologies such as heat pumps or renewables in the building environment. The development of the split of energy carriers in the case of the built environment is shown in Figure 4-5, Figure 4-6 as well as Figure 4-7.

40 Figure 4-5:

Evolution of the energy carrier mix for space heating in households up to 2050


Figure 4-6:

Evolution of the energy carrier mix for water heating in households up to 2050


41 Figure 4-7:

Evolution of the energy carrier mix for space heating in the tertiary sector up to 2050


42

4.1.4

Methodology to determine the technical primary energy saving potentials

The transformation of final into primary energy saving potentials can be realised by retracing the energy conversion chain and applying the overall conversion efficiency (see Figure 4-8). Given the fact that very different types of final energy carriers are saved through the efficiency measures (such as electricity, heat or natural gas), the individual conversion pathways need to be considered. Figure 4-8:

Energy conversion chain

Source: (Kaltschmitt, 2007)

According to the simplified scheme of the energy conversion chain in Figure 4-8, two types of final energy can be distinguished. On the one hand side there are energy carriers that are directly converted from primary to final energy, featuring only singular losses for conversion and distribution. In the present study, this energy carrier type comprises all kinds of oil products (heating oil, gasoline, diesel and kerosene) as well as natural gas, solids and renewable energy sources (RES). The conversion efficiency of the respective energy carriers is shown in Table 4-4. The second group of final energy carriers are those that cannot be directly generated from primary energy sources: electricity and heat. They are produced on the basis of secondary energy which corresponds to the first group of energy carriers, explained prior to this. Hence, the production of electricity and heat includes two transformation processes that involve each conversion and distribution losses. While the conversion efficiency from primary to secondary energy is equivalent to

43 the one explained further above, the conversion from secondary to final energy strongly depends on the type of fuel (e.g. gas, coal or nuclear) and the type of conversion technology (e.g. a simple gas turbine or a high-efficient combined-cycle gas turbine). From this it follows that an improvement of the generation efficiency for heat and electricity can be directly translated into primary energy savings 22.

Kerosene

97 %

89 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

100 %

2020

97 %

89 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

100 %

2030

97 %

90 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

100 %

2040

97 %

89 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

100 %

2050

97 %

89 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

95 %

100 %

RES 24

Diesel

2010

Solids23

Gasoline

Heating oil

Efficiency for the conversion from primary to secondary/final energy

Natural Gas

Table 4-4:

Source: (FfE, 1999), (Öko-Institut, 2006)

The translation of final energy into primary energy savings consists of six steps that are explained in the following: 1. The PRIMES 2009 baseline final energy demand is translated into a primary energy demand baseline (cf. Figure 4-9), considering the fuel mix and the conversion efficiency as reported in (European Commission, 2010). For the years beyond 2030, a trend extrapolation was carried out. In the case of electricity and heat, the final energy is re-converted into secondary energy first, and in a second step into primary energy. The detailed figures are shown in Table 4-5. 2. Due to the relatively low level of detail of the data from PRIMES 2009 (European Commission, 2010), the transformation procedure of step one

22 For further information regarding this effect, see also (Harmsen, 2011) 23 Solids comprise hard coal, lignite and coke. 24 Renewable energy source (RES) comprise biomass, biogas, solar-thermal heat, geothermal heat

44 implies a certain inaccurateness, that is compensated by calibration of the results with the actual primary energy data as delivered by PRIMES 25. 3. As mentioned earlier, changes in the fuel mix for the generation of electricity and heat directly imply primary energy savings. Hence, the final energy demand of the PRIMES 2009 baseline is translated into a primary energy demand baseline, considering this time the much more ambitious conversion efficiency (and the fuel mix) of the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study 26, 27, Scenario B, for the generation of electricity 28. The conversion efficiency and fuel mix are given in Table 4-6. 4. Subtracting the primary energy demand as calculated on the basis of the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study from the PRIMES 2009 baseline gives the primary energy savings through a more ambitious conversion efficiency for the generation of electricity (cf. the slice “Conversion savings” in Figure 4-9). 5. The transformation of the final energy savings through efficiency measures into primary energy savings is carried out according to the procedure in step 3, using the more ambitious conversion efficiency of the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study. 6. The baseline, determined in step 3, less the saving potentials, calculated in step 5, give the remaining primary energy demand. Hence, the primary energy demand can be reduced by the means of final-energy related efficiency measures AND a highly ambitious electricity generation mix as determined in the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study, and the technical potential for the reduction of primary energy is composed by both 29.

25 A direct use of the data for the PRIMES 2009 baseline primary energy demand is not possible, since this data is only available until 2030 and it is not distinguished by primary energy carrier.

26 This study is likewise carried out by Fraunhofer ISI on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment.

27 Throughout this study, the baseline calculated on the basis of the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study will also be called “Ambitious RES” baseline, for reasons of comprehensibility.

28 For the generation of heat, the conversion efficiency as reported by PRIMES 2009 is assumed for both baselines.

29 That does not mean that primary energy demand cannot be further reduced. Any kind of policy measures addressing behavioural changes can potentially trigger further efficiency improvements that results in an additional decrease of primary energy demand.

45 Figure 4-9:

Schematic illustration of primary energy savings


Table 4-5:

Fuel mix for electricity generation and conversion efficiency for electricity and heat generation according to the PRIMES 2009 baseline

Natural gas

Heating oil

Biomass 31

Other RES

Mean conversion efficiency for electricity 30

2010

34 %

30 %

20 %

2%

5%

8%

35 %

81 %

2020

31 %

29 %

20 %

2%

6%

12 %

37 %

86 %

2030

33 %

24 %

17 %

1%

7%

16 %

39 %

91 %

2040

34 %

22 %

16 %

1%

8%

19 %

40 %

91 %

2050

35 %

20 %

13 %

1%

9%

22 %

40 %

92 %

Nuclear

Solids

Secondary energy shares for electricity generation

Mean conversion efficiency for heat

Source: Based on (European Commission, 2010)

30 Converting electricity savings into primary energy savings would actually require a detailed temporary disaggregation of the savings in order to determine by which type of power plant the electricity is produced (marginal power plant approach) and which is the actual conversion factor. Given the complexity of this approach a mean conversion efficiency was assumed in this study.

31 Biomass comprises also waste

46 Table 4-6:

Fuel mix for electricity generation and conversion efficiency for electricity and heat generation according to the "EU long-term scenarios 2050" study

Secondary energy shares

heat

efficiency for electric-

2010

34 %

30 %

20 %

2%

5%

8%

35 %

81 %

2020

35 %

27 %

25 %

0%

8%

16 %

50 %

86 %

2030

7%

17 %

29 %

0%

14 %

33 %

64 %

91 %

2040

1%

2%

26 %

0%

20 %

50 %

74 %

91 %

2050

0%

0%

8%

0%

26 %

66 %

80 %

92 %

Nuclear

Other RES

ity

Biomass

sion efficiency for

Heating oil

Mean conver-

Natural gas

Mean conversion

Solids

for electricity generation

Source: Based on ISI (2011b)

The type of illustration chosen in Figure 4-9 for the presentation of the primary energy savings is likewise applied in the factsheets (paragraph 4.1.5) and in the sectoral overviews (paragraphs 4.4.1 and 5.1). For readability reasons the actual projection of the PRIMES 2009 as well as the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” baseline is not explicitly depicted in the respective charts.

4.1.5

Methodology to determine the greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials

In order to establish the contribution of energy efficiency measures to climate protection, the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 32 needs to be determined. This paragraph exposes the calculation methodology of GHG emission reductions, based on the primary energy demand in the baseline scenarios and the respective primary energy savings through efficiency measures that are determined according to the methodology explained in section 4.1.4.

32 According the UNFCCC GHG data register, the overall energy related GHG emissions in 2009 mounted up to 3659 Mt CO2-eq, whereof 97 % came from carbon dioxide (CO2), 2 % from methane (CH4) and 1 % from nitrous dioxide (N2O). Hence, in the subsequent analysis, the focus is only set on these three types of greenhouse gases.

47 The determination of the direct GHG emissions 33 and the respective reduction potential is based on the conversion of primary energy demand (distinguished by fuels) into GHG emissions by means of the emission factors in Table 4-7. Table 4-7:

Emission factors of primary energy carriers (in Mt CO2-eq per Mtoe)

[Mt CO2eq/Mtoe]

Solids

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Biomass 34

RES

CO2

3.858

0.000

2.106

3.079

0.000

0.000

CH4

0.008

0.000

0.004

0.002

0.026

0.000

N2O

0.017

0.000

0.001

0.007

0.052

0.000

Source: (NCASI, 2005), (Öko-Institut, 2006), (Öko-Institut, 2007), (Quaschning, 2011) The step-wise procedure of the conversion from primary energy into GHG emissions follows strongly the methodology for the conversion of final into primary energy, as explained in 4.1.4: 1. Transformation of the PRIMES 2009 baseline primary energy demand into a GHG emission baseline. 2. Calibration of the emissions 35 according to the PRIMES data reported in (European Commission, 2010). 3. Transformation of the baseline primary energy demand that was calculated using the fuel mix and conversion efficiency from the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study into a GHG emissions baseline. 4. Calculation of the GHG emission reduction through a fuel and technology shift in power generation by subtracting the emissions from the “EU longterm scenarios 2050” from the PRIMES 2009 baseline (labelled as “Conversion savings” in the subsequent paragraphs).

33 In the framework of this study, only direct GHG emissions are considered, that are released during the combustion process of the fuel.

34 Assuming a sustainable use of biomass including afforestation 35 In the PRIMES 2009 baseline, electricity generation is partly ensured by the use of CCS (carbon capture and storage) technology. Since there is no detailed information available on the degree of utilisation, the adjustment of the calculated GHG emissions is carried out by “distributing” the GHG emission reduction through CCS over the different sectors according to their specific degree of electrification.

48 5. Determination of the GHG emission reduction potential of final energy related efficiency measures by converting the calculated primary energy demand into GHG emission amounts. 6. Determination of the actual remaining emissions that represent the lowest realisable emission reduction pathway by means of end-use related efficiency measures AND the reduction of GHG emission through a power mix with an ambitious share of renewables as calculated on the basis of the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” in step 3 (technical potential for the reduction of GHG emissions).

4.2

Energy saving and emission reduction potentials of „calculated wedges“

In this section the main energy efficiency technologies that can provide significant energy savings are described in individual factsheets, sorted by the sector of application. Every factsheet has the following structure: 1. Firstly, the main result is shown: the description of the technical energy saving potential compared to the historical final energy demand development (mainly based on data from (Odyssee, 2011) and the energy demand forecasts delivered by the PRIMES 36 2009 baseline scenario (European Commission, 2010). The potential is depicted up to 2050. Until 2030 a detailed differentiation according to the saving measures can be undertaken, whereas for the time 2030 to 2050 a general assessment of the overall energy saving potential is carried without a clear definition of the pathway of the single technologies due to limited predictability. 2. Based on the potential determination in the first block, a cost-benefitanalysis is carried out, identifying the share of the technical potential that is already cost-efficient and the remaining part that is still limited by financial barriers. The result of the analysis is depicted in a cost curve (see Figure 4-10) that shows the specific potential as well as the financial benefits/costs involved for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050. For the year 2020, the single measures are pointed out by means of coloured blocks. For the subsequent years, the order of the cost curve from the year 2020 is maintained and ori-

36 The PRIMES model is used by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab) who are preparing the main energy forecasts for the European Commission. The PRIMES 2009 baseline scenario is a widely recognised reference scenario forecasting the business as usual development if no climate mitigation action is undertaken.

49 entation lines help identifying the evolution of every single measure over time. For reasons of comparability, the vertical axis, representing the specific energy saving costs in M€’05/Mtoe are kept constant, whereas the horizontal axis, showing the saving potential in Mtoe, is adjusted according to the dimension of the potential for readability reasons. Figure 4-10: Exemplary illustration of the cost curve arrangement


If not stated differently, the overall potential is subdivided into three categories: •

“Low hanging fruits” (LHF) contain all the potentials that were originally identified under the LPI (Low policy intensity scenario, as described in 4.1.3) scenario and adjusted according to the new framework conditions. The LHF potentials are highly economic, however, they imply continued high barriers that can be overcome by a low policy effort. They are even economic under high discount rates for investments in energy efficiency.

•

“High hanging fruits” (HHF) represent potentials that were determined under the HPI scenario (high policy intensity scenario) as well as technical potentials that simply became cost-effective (i.e. energy saving costs below zero that create net benefits) due to the adjustment of the economic framework conditions to higher energy price levels (mainly fuel prices). Hence, the HHF potentials do also trigger net cost savings on a life cycle basis, however a high policy effort is needed in order to overcome the barriers and the discount rates for investments are lower than in the LHF case.

50 •

“Immature fruits” (IF) cover all the potentials that are near economic under low discount rates but may be realised under acceptable additional costs. They have not reached the state of costeffectiveness yet (hence called “immature) on a life cycle basis. They represent all the saving potentials that were identified under the Technical scenario that are more expensive than LHF and HHF potentials but that are still fairly realistic options – no exotic technologies.

On top of every cost curve a bar chart provides the information on how the energy saving potential is distributed over the three categories mentioned above (LHF, HHF, IF). Potential blocks that are initially identified as HHF or IF keep this label over the subsequent years despite their further cost reduction. Mainly in the case of the immature fruits, this practice permits to figure out when an immature fruit potential becomes cost-efficient and is shifting towards the economic potential (i.e. below the horizontal axis). However, given the fact that the potential determination for the years 2040 and 2050 is carried out using sectoral extrapolation indices from the ADAM report (ISI, 2009c), the potentials of the different categories are evolving identically. Hence, the shares are the same for the years 2030 to 2050. 3. The third sub-section gives insights into how the identified final energy savings might trigger primary energy savings and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In the style of the illustration of the final energy savings, the savings depicted in this block are likewise shown in comparison to a baseline development. Since the fuel mix for the final energy generation has additional effects on primary energy savings (see also the methodology chapter 4.1.4), two baselines are used: the PRIMES 2009 baseline and the so-called “Ambitious RES” baseline which is based on the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study. 4. A short section on the sector itself and the historical development of specific key figures provides the reader with some general information facilitating the understanding of the energy saving potentials. 5. A separate section on general technology information aims on giving a short introduction into the technologies prevalent in the respective sector. They provide the knowledge necessary for understanding the potential efficiency improvements listed in section 4. 6. In this section the energy efficiency technologies responsible for the saving potentials mentioned in section one are explained. The listing of technologies is only a limited selection without demanding completeness due to

51 the wide range of existing technologies and the limited coverage of this report. Every technology is rated regarding its technical development status. The definition of the different technology status levels corresponds to the following convention (based on (Martin, 2000)): •

R&D: The technology still needs further research and development efforts before providing net energy savings or working under standard conditions.

•

DEMO: The technology already exists at a demonstration or pilot scale. Further research needs to be done in order to make this technology applicable and cost-efficient under current user patterns.

•

EMRG: The technology is closed to the market entry (i.e. emerging technology) but still encounters problems regarding user acceptance, high costs or strong competition.

•

COMM: The technology is already commercially available at the market.

7. In a last sub-section, general information regarding the calculation methodology is provided, in the case that the calculation procedure differs from the general approach as explained in section 4.1. The listing of all factsheets shows that firstly the focus is set on efficiency technologies available in the households and tertiary sector. Afterwards, household appliances (so called “white goods”) as solely prevalent in the household sector are analysed. Factsheet six until nine deal with efficiency technologies for process technologies (PT) as well as for cross-cutting technologies (CCT). Finally, the assessment of technical efficiency improvements and behavioural changes in the transport sector is carried out. Table 4-8:

Overview of the factsheets

#

Sector

Wedge

1

Households, tertiary

Building envelope

2


Heating and cooling systems

3


Lighting

4


Green ICT

5

Households

Household appliances

6

Industry (PT)

Paper and pulp industry

7

Industry (CCT)

Steam / hot water generation

8

Industry (CCT)

Electric drives

52 9

Industry (CCT)

E-drive system optimisation

10

Transport (road)

Technical improvements

11

Transport (road)

Behavioural changes

12

Transport (road)

e-Mobility

Households, tertiary 4.2.1

53

Building envelope

Households, tertiary - Building envelope Final energy saving potentials

Final energy demand for heating and cooling in the residential and tertiary sector can be reduced by more than 42 % or 152 Mtoe by 2030 (51 % by 2050) compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline through efficient building envelope design. Due to the long lifespan of the building stock, refurbishment measures have a significantly stronger impact on the saving potential than the construction of new, more efficient dwellings. More than two thirds of the savings arise from refurbishment of existing buildings (76 Mtoe in the household sector, 27 Mtoe in the tertiary sector) whereas new buildings account for 37 Mtoe and 10 Mtoe. One should bear in mind that the energy savings of new buildings that are reported here, are also resulting from new efficient heating systems. However, the savings through improved insulation are supposed to be much higher, reducing the heating demand (and the related saving potential) to a minimum level. Figure 4-11:

Energy saving potentials by efficient building envelope in the household and tertiary sector, compared to PRIMES baseline for heating and cooling energy demand in the household and tertiary sector

Source: historical data: (Odyssee, 2011), FED projections: (European Commission, 2010), energy saving potentials: (ISI, 2009a)


54

Building envelope

Cost curve for final energy saving measures As indicated in Figure 4-12 the energy efficiency options for building envelopes are largely cost-effective, except some IF options for existing buildings in the household and tertiary sector that are uneconomic. When looking at the development of the IF options between 2020 and 2050 one can witness that in the long run they will become cost-effective as can be seen in 2040 and beyond. This illustrates that the specific costs for energy saving options in buildings change crucially on a long term basis due to increasing fuel prices. Therefore, to attain potentials in the short term, ambitious political instruments have to be installed, because 63 % in 2020 are assigned to HHF and IF. In 2020 the LHF potentials related to new buildings are 12 Mtoe in total and the potential of existing buildings is 24 Mtoe. Despite the fact that the amount of new buildings is much smaller than the existing stock their impact is a lot stronger due to the high energy efficiency of new buildings whereas the potentials of the household sector are a little bit smaller. For HHF and IF in 2020 the potentials of households exceed tremendously, which proves the necessity of ambitious policy measures in the long term. That counts for the years 2030 to 2050 as well. The overall benefits of the economic potentials mount up to €26 billion, whereof nearly one fifth would be required to unlock the IF potentials. In 2050, all potentials are economic and cause benefits of more than €100 billion (whereof households cover 70 %). Figure 4-12: Cost curve for building related saving options, up to 2050



55

Building envelope

Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials Figure 4-13:

Primary energy savings compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline demand for heating and cooling in the residential and tertiary sector


As one of the most important measures to reduce primary energy demand and thus to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions the improvement of the building envelope has a potential to decrease the primary energy demand of 41 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline and 51 % compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (191 Mtoe) by 2050. The difference between the two baselines has to be interpreted against the backdrop of the fuel and technology switch for electricity generation (from the PRIMES 2009 mix to the generation mix from the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study). The key determinant to exploit the energy saving potential is the refurbishment of existing buildings which is about 131 Mtoe (cf. Figure 4-13). As indicated in Figure 4-14 the potential to mitigate emissions due to a higher efficiency of the building envelope is about 277 Mt CO2-eq in 2050, which is about 43 % in comparison to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. And further 13 % of the GHG emissions (88 Mt CO2-eq) can be reduced by conversion savings.

Households, tertiary Figure 4-14:

56

Building envelope

GHG emission reduction compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for heating and cooling in the residential and tertiary sector


General information The energy use of residential and non-residential buildings accounts for 40 % of the total energy use in the EU (Eurostat 2010). The building envelope plays a substantial role in this context as this determines the heating and cooling load for the desired indoor temperature. Because of this, efficiency standards and requirements have been continuously enhanced over the years in terms of refurbishing existing dwellings as well as constructing new ones. However, this trend towards increased efficiency is offset by the other trend observed in the residential sector that the total number of households is growing while the number of inhabitants per household is declining due to demographic and social changes. Thus, the living area per dwelling has increased steadily which is a driving force for the total energy demand of buildings (ISI, 2009a), (Eurostat, 2011) (Eurostat, 2011), (Odyssee, 2011).


57

Building envelope

PRIMES 2009 forecast of the EU27 building stock

2 1.75 1.5 1.25 1

Source: (eepotential, 2012)

Figure 4-16:

Expected average living area per dwelling (in m²/dwelling)


Technology information Buildings can be seen as a system of technologies consisting of the building envelope (walls, doors, windows and the roof), heating and air-conditioning. Thus, a systems approach is necessary to improve their energy efficiency. Therefore, several low-energy building standards have been established that define different


58

Building envelope

levels of building efficiency comprising all the mentioned elements. In particular these approaches seek to limit the energy use for space heating by defining specific thresholds on an annual basis. Thus, the contribution of the building envelope is to minimise all thermal bridges regarding their degree of insulation. Moreover, self-sufficient buildings using renewable energy sources to generate their own power play a crucial role which is not able to be considered here. In principal, all the low-energy building standards presented below can already be achieved with state-of-the-art technology. But it should be mentioned that the specifications used to define these standards can be ambiguous in the literature and therefore vary from country to country (Passivhaus Institut, 2009), (Torcellini, 2006), (Voss, 2008): •

In general a Low-Energy-House (LEH) is a building standard that defines the degree of efficiency of transmission heat losses through the building envelope as well as a certain threshold for the total energy demand of the heating system. In Germany, for example, the annual energy consumption of the heating system of houses entitled to carry the LEH-label has to be below 50 kWh/(m²a); this is equivalent to 5 litres of heating oil for each square metre of heated space per year.

•

The Passive House (PH) concept represents a standard with an annual energy demand for heating that does not exceed 15 kWh/(m²a). In general, this standard is based on minimizing heat losses combined with the maximal use of solar power. The detailed requirements are the following: thermal insulation (U-values < 0.1 W/m²K), thermal bridges (U-value < 0.8 W/m²K), high solar transmission of thermal bridges (> 50 %) and high degree of heat recovery of ventilation system (> 75 %) with a low electricity demand (> 0.45 W/m³).

•

Zero-Net-Energy-Buildings (ZNEB) require an annual net energy supply from the grid of zero kWh/m². Therefore, these buildings can be powered autonomously. The principle of this building type is to combine energy production using renewable technologies like solar and wind power with extremely efficient HVAC and lighting technologies.

•

An Energy-Plus-Building (EPB) produces more energy using renewable energy sources than it needs for its own consumption. Thus, energy can be exported into the grid. This can be achieved with low-energy building standards like PH in combination with a decentralised heat and power supply based on renewable energies. This type of building design should be treated more as a vision than a solution in the near future.


59

Building envelope

Energy efficiency technologies A set of structural changes and replacements of specific building envelope elements have to be applied to comply with the above mentioned building standards and reduce the energy consumption determined by the conductivity of the building envelope. Building typology plays a key

Techn. status

role regarding the feasibility of the refurbishment measure ((ECOFYS, 2005), (Wietschel, 2010), (SAENA, 2009), (Passivhaus Institut, 2009)). •

Improvements by structural changes to the building design are usually limited to the construction of new dwellings. Typical examples are porch installations to provide shading and solar protections of windows.

•

Due to the fact that the building envelope mainly comprises the walls and the roof, a high degree of insulation of both elements is crucial. The typical material deployed is mineral wool with glass padding and polystyrene (EPS), which has a thermal conductivity of 0.03-0.04 W/mK. More innovative alternatives that are still very costly and therefore in the R&D development stage include aerogel (0.012-0.022 W/mK) and vacuum insulation systems (0.004 W/mK).

•

Generally the degree of window insulation is determined by the optimal thickness of the space between the panes containing gas or a vacuum. While too little space results in relatively high losses, too large a gap results in increased convection. By using high-performance windows like triple glazing, U-values of 0.6 W/m²K are possible. Through further R&D, vacuum glazing (0.4 W/m²K), which minimises conductive heat losses between the panes, is expected evolve to commercial status.

DEMOCOMM

R&DCOMM

R&DCOMM

Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. At the basis of the potential evaluation in the residential sector is a description of the European building stock according to building age and type, average living area, climate zone, energetic standard, etc. On the basis of this historic description of the building stock energy efficient building options were defined for both the new buildings (4 more and more efficient building types up to passive house standard)


60

Building envelope

and existing buildings to be refurbished (3 refurbishment packages up to a level of low energy houses). Each of these options and packages were described on a detailed technical level and were allowed to penetrate the market in accordance with maximum penetration rates. For the technical scenarios at the basis of the potentials presented here, refurbishment rates and compliance with building regulation were enhanced. The methodology was similar for the tertiary sector buildings. However, the historic database was based on a less detailed dataset. The buildings differ between small and large; small buildings refer to smaller than 1.000 m2 and larger to more than 1.000 m2. In order to characterise the specific energy consumption per building, the same energy consumption values as for residential buildings were taken for the scenario calculations.


61


Households, tertiary - Heating and cooling systems Final energy saving potentials

The increasing level of individual comfort demanded and climate change lead to increasing energy consumption for heating and cooling devices and furthermore to high saving potentials. Until 2030, 41 Mtoe of final energy demand can be reduced by solely renewed efficient heating systems in households. In total, the overall saving potentials 37 are assessed to be 57 Mtoe, which is about 16 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline projection (in this case the aggregated FED for heating and cooling of the household and tertiary sector). Until 2050, the saving potential is further increasing up to 66 Mtoe, which equals to 19 % energy demand reduction compared to the baseline. Figure 4-17:

Energy saving potentials of efficient heating in the household and tertiary sector compared to the baseline heating/cooling energy demand


37 It has to be mentioned that the potentials discussed in this factsheet are limited to existing buildings. The energy saving potential of heating and cooling systems in new buildings is discussed in the building envelope factsheet, as for new buildings an integrated approach regarding insulation and heating measures was carried out.


62


Due to structural differences in the tertiary sector air-conditioning systems are limited to central appliances. Air-conditioning in the residential sector could not be analysed due to a rather weak database. Moreover, the interpretation of the saving potentials has to be regarded under the restriction that heat pumps are not explicitly considered in the tertiary sector. Thus, the total amount of saving potentials in the residential and tertiary sector is even higher than revealed. Moreover, the trend towards an increasing degree of insulation of the building envelope has to be considered. Saving potentials in the field of industrial space heating are neglected in the analysis due to significantly differing heating concepts (such as waste heat use) that cannot be applied in the residential and tertiary sector.

Cost curve for final energy saving measures Due to the long lifetime of cooling and heating devices most options are costeffective despite associated high investments. In terms of costs the centralized air conditioning should be addressed first in the tertiary sector with specific costs of 964. M€’05/Mtoe in 2020. All efficiency measures classified under air-conditioning are highly rewarding and thus declared as LHF. Further LHF are represented by the increase of heating efficiency in the tertiary and household sector with specific costs of -446 M€’05/Mtoe and -373 M€‘05/Mtoe respectively. Taking the high hanging fruits also into account the cost-effective potentials represent 65% in 2020. In comparison to 2020 the share of LHF decreases slightly in the subsequent years of about 8% on a level of 60%. Looking at the heating potentials of the household and tertiary sector in all four cost curves shows that the fuel shift does not lead to any essential changes in the structure of the curves. This means that the effects of various differential costs and fuel prices do internalise each other. In total the saving potential of heating and cooling in the household and tertiary sector is 66 Mtoe in 2050. Despite the fact, that tertiary air-conditioning (AC) features the highest specific cost reduction per unit of energy saved by 2020, heating systems in the household sector trigger three times as much benefit as the AC systems, namely €4.9 billion. The net benefits (benefits from economic measures less the additional financial efforts for unlocking the non-economic potential) account for €8 billion by 2020 and up to €43 billion in 2050, when all measures are cost-effective.


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Cost curve for heating and cooling related saving options



Primary energy savings compared to the PRIMES baseline energy demand for heating and cooling in the residential and tertiary sector



64


The primary energy savings in Figure 4-19 illustrate a constantly increasing potential until 2030, which is 67 Mtoe. Afterwards the overall savings due to more efficient heating and cooling increase only slightly on a level of 72 Mtoe in 2050 (15 % compared to the PRIMES baseline). This development has to be interpreted in the light of more energy efficient building standards that lead to a falling heat demand after 2030. The savings in the residential sector are essentially related to the diffusion of heat pumps and thus attributable to reduced electricity consumption. Conversion savings equal 97 Mtoe in 2050, i.e. 21 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. As indicated in Figure 4-20 the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions develops equal to the primary energy savings with a steady increase until 2030. Subsequently the GHG emission reduction potentials remain almost on a constant level. In 2030 the greenhouse gas emission reduction is about 127 Mt CO2-eq and in 2050 about 114 Mt CO2-eq. As for the primary energy savings the energy efficient refurbishment of buildings results in a downside trend in terms of reduction potential. Due to a very efficient electricity generation mix under the “Ambitious RES” baseline the conversion savings rise to 88 Mt CO2-eq unto 2050. Figure 4-20:

GHG emission reduction from efficient heating and cooling systems compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for heating and cooling in the residential and tertiary sector



65


General information The residential and tertiary sectors in Europe represent 40 % of today’s total final energy demand (Eurostat, 2011). Thereof, a substantial share that is crucially determined by the insulation type of the building shell is related to heating and airconditioning cooling systems (see also factsheet about building envelope). When investigating the energy demand for heating and cooling technologies, it is necessary to distinguish between different country-specific needs in the various climate zones and to take the increasing amount of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) due to climate change into account. HDD and CDD are indexes representing the actual heating/cooling demand. They are calculated as the sum of temperature variation above/below room temperature over a specific time horizon (typically one year). I.e. the higher the temperature deviation is or the longer the hot/cool periods last, the higher is the HDD or CDD, respectively. By dividing the European building stock into three climate zones - cold (> 4,200 HDD), moderate (2,200-4,200 HDD) and warm (< 2,200 HDD) - a varying distribution of building types and hence requirements in terms of heating and cooling demand can be observed (ISI, 2009a). While the number of heating appliances has almost reached the level of saturation, the penetration of air conditioning cooling systems have increased in number extensively over the last decades (ISI, 2009a), (ISI, 2009b). Nevertheless, a dynamic evolution of heating systems can be observed, whilst taking into account the continuously increasing share of renewable energies and heat pumps in the technological mix (Wietschel 2010). Besides these technological drivers, social aspects like the enhanced living area per dwelling in the light of a rising total number of dwellings and the rebound effect due to an increase of individual thermal comfort needs in winter and summer seasons needs to be (ISI, 2009b). Figure 4-21:

Heating and cooling degree days in three climatic zones of the EU27

Source: (ISI, 2009b)


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Technology information Multiple technologies are applied in the residential and the tertiary sector to provide the energy service heating. Depending on the building design, heat is either supplied from a centralised source with a subsequent distribution system or decentralised which only plays a minor role nowadays. In centralised systems the generation of heat is realised by a boiler that also provides the function of storing heat in a vessel. Thereby, the energy source for heat generation can vary: oil, coal, gas or even solar power. In order to further improve heat generation, condensing boilers are employed that also utilise the latent heat of water (heat released or absorbed by a chemical substance or a thermodynamic system during a change of state) produced from the burning of fuel. A further way to provide locally usable heat is by connecting building units to a district heating system. In the proper sense, district heating cannot be considered as a generation technology even so, it provides the same function (Schmid, 2003), (Wietschel, 2010), (ISI, 2009a). Corresponding to heating systems, air conditioning can be distinguished with regard to the location of their generation unit: room air conditioners (RAC) and central air conditioners (CAC). RACs are separate components that are mainly found in the residential sector, while CAC are characterised by a central refrigerating unit which is generally bigger in size and mostly found in the tertiary sector. There are different types of commonly used RAC appliances. Split-packaged units and multi-split-packaged units are comprised of an indoor unit (evaporator and fan) and one or more outdoor units respectively (compressor and condenser) connected by a pipe which transfers refrigerant. In single-packaged units, one side of the RAC is in contact with the outside air for condensation, while the other side provides direct cooling on the inside with a fan. In single-duct units, the condenser ejects hot air through a duct to the exterior. These RACs can be either water- or air-cooled, although the vast majority of them uses air as the heat-transfer medium. CACs perform technically like RACs, but are characterised by a central refrigerant unit operating together with an air treatment unit and a distribution system that transports cold to the air conditioned space by using air and/or water as fluid. Due to the fact that air conditioners are essentially based on heat pumps, they provide two operating modes: cooling only and reverse cycle (operates as space heating). Therefore, the formerly used heat source (heat exchanger) needs to be replaced by a heat sink which can be provided by a refrigeration system (Adnot, 1999), (Adnot, 2003), (Adnot, 2004), (IEA, 2003). Energy efficiency technologies In the process of setting new building efficiency standards (see factsheet building envelope), the mix of technologies applied for heat gen-

Techn. status


67


eration generally shifts towards an increasing deployment of renewable energy sources, like solar heating systems and geothermal devices. Nevertheless, the listed saving technologies are limited to conventional energy sources (Schmid, 2003), (Wietschel, 2010), (Adnot, 1999), (Adnot J. , 2004): •

In order to generate heat more efficiently than conventional or condensing boilers, heat pumps are used to convey heat from

DEMOCOMM

a natural source like ground water or a geothermal hot-pool to a heat exchanger which transfers this heat into the building’s heating system. Thus the energy consumption for heating is mainly determined by the difference in temperature between the heat source and the demanded comfort indoors. •

The heat transfer in the heat exchanger, relevant for heating and cooling purposes, can be improved by increasing the coil area and the density of the fins, by adding additional refrigerant tubing through increasing the coils depth, and by internal grooving.

•

Besides the replacement or improvement of single components, further saving potential can be gained by considering general aspects - typical examples are to avoid oversizing, usage of

EMRGCOMM

R&DCOMM

variable speed drives or alternative drive technologies like gas motors, improvement of insulation and performance monitoring by implementing an e-drive system optimisation process. •

To attain self-sufficiency and a more efficient mode of energy supply, the concept of combined heat and power generation (CHP) has been adapted to residential and non-residential housing by introducing micro combined heat and power

EMRGCOMM

(mCHP), with an installation usually less than 5 kWe (15 % – 42 % of primary heat are converted to electricity and most of the remaining heat is captured for hot water or space heating). Due to the non-existent demand for heating in the summer season, a combination of CHP with a heat-driven refrigerating machine can essentially increase the annual full load hours. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements.


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The energy efficient options were first described in terms of useful energy (see factsheet on the building envelope) and then combined with certain types of heating devices compatible with the insulation standard and the building types. The heating devices considered where mainly heat pumps, biomass boilers (advanced pellet heating), solar heating systems, gas standard and condensing boilers, district heating systems. Building shell and heating technologies are interlinked. For the heating devices the input data were the useful energy consumption, the energy consumption share of the heating technologies and the corresponding efficiencies of the heating systems. For the reference year the data of the energy consumption shares at country level were provided by the EuP-Eco-design study on boilers. There is a strong penetration of heat pumps (30 % – 36% of the heating equipments stock in 2030) and renewable energy sources (solar heating/geothermal, up to 40 % depending on the country climate) in the market for heating devices in the technical, while district heating is stagnating and fossil-fired heating sources are decreasing. Similar penetration of heating devices was assumed for the residential and the tertiary sector.


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Lighting

Households, tertiary - Lighting Final energy saving potentials

For residential lighting, the energy-saving options are driven by the most efficient technologies replacing incandescent as well as halogen lamps through more efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and through light-emitting diodes (LEDs). This evolution can be translated into an energy saving potential of more than 8 Mtoe until 2030, corresponding to a 16 % reduction of the total residential electricity consumption for lighting and appliances. The tertiary sector 38 features a similarly significant potential of more than 6 Mtoe by 2030 through efficient office lighting. This increases to 8 Mtoe when adding the saving potential from street lighting. It can be translated into a 16 % reduction of tertiary electricity consumption for lighting and appliances by 2030. By 2050, overall technical savings mount up to 20 Mtoe or an 18 % reduction. Figure 4-22:

Energy saving potentials of efficient lighting in household and tertiary sector compared to the demand for electric appliances and lighting

Source: historical data and FED projections: (European Commission, 2010), energy saving potentials: (ISI, 2009a)

38 In the industry sector, energy savings through lighting are lower than in the other sectors and the lighting technology being applied differs from the domestic sectors. Hence, these potentials are not considered in this paragraph.


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Lighting

Cost curve for final energy saving measures As indicated in Figure 4-23 the potentials are clustered in efficient lighting for households and efficient street as well as office lighting for the tertiary sector. Contrary to the saving options in the household sector, the tertiary is not further subdivided because all potentials are considered to be LHF measures. Looking at the household sector shows that the bulk of the potential can be attained cost-effective in 2020, which is 1.8 Mtoe with specific costs of -1282 M€’05/Mtoe and -1196 M€’05/Mtoe, respectively. By taking also uneconomic options into account in 2020 the potential of the household sector can be increased by one third, triggering net cost savings of €1.7 billion (and €8.4 billion by 2050). Looking at the tertiary sector leads to the conclusion that all options are very rewarding in 2020, with specific costs of -1159 M€’05/Mtoe and an energy saving potential of 0.8 Mtoe as well as -932 M€’05/Mtoe and 3 Mtoe, respectively, triggering benefits of €3.6 billion. Due to the fact that the increase of electricity prices is the key driver, the cost curve moves slightly down, causing energy related cost reductions of nearly €12 billion. The total cost-effective potential of lighting triples from 6 Mtoe to 18 Mtoe between 2020 and 2050. The overall saving potential is quantified as 20 Mtoe in 2050. Figure 4-23:

Cost curve for lighting related saving options in the household and tertiary sector



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Lighting


Primary energy savings from efficient lighting compared to PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential and tertiary sector


As indicated in Figure 4-24 the summed up savings of primary energy demand due to more energy efficient lighting is about 25 Mtoe in 2050. Corresponding to the final energy demand savings the reduction of the primary energy demand is equal in households as well as the tertiary sector. In comparison to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, which is at 285 Mtoe in 2050, efficient lighting can contribute by 9 % to primary energy savings. The conversion savings constantly increase until 2050 up to a level of 146 Mtoe in 2050, which is 51 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. The analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions points out that the overall mitigation potential due to efficient lighting increases until 2030 up to 38 Mt CO2-eq (cf. Figure 4-25). Afterwards, a cleaner generation of electricity leads to a declining trend of lighting contribution. In 2050 the total emission reduction amounts to 5 Mt CO2eq, which is 3 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline and 18 % compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline.


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Lighting

GHG emission reduction from efficient lighting compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential and tertiary sector


General information Electricity demand for lighting occurs everywhere regardless of the analysed sector. For the residential sector, it is relatively easy to quantify the demand for lighting, which accounts for about 10 % to 12 % of all residential electricity demand, whereas no data are available regarding the energy consumption due to lighting in the tertiary and industry sectors. Despite the decrease in the energy consumption of light bulbs and the market entry of new, energy-saving lighting technologies (cf. next section), the total electricity demand for lighting has still increased. This is due to the increasing number of households, the increasing floor area per dwelling and the increased number of light sources per dwelling.


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Lighting

Final energy demand for lighting in absolute numbers and as specific yearly consumption per dwelling in the household sector

Source: (Odyssee, 2011)

Figure 4-27:

Distribution of electricity by end-use in households, EU15, 2004

Source: (IES, 2007)

Technology information In order to compare the performance of light bulbs, the luminous flux (visible energy measured in lumen, lm) is considered, which is an indicator for the luminosity. Consequently, the efficiency of light bulbs is expressed in lumen per Watt (lm/W).


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Lighting

The numerous existing lamp types can generally be classified as incandescent lamps, discharge lamps and LEDs. Incandescent lamps, which are still very widespread, transform about 95 % of the electricity consumed into invisible infrared radiation, whereas only 5 % are converted into visible light. The average efficiency is about 13 lumen/W (lm/W), which is slightly exceeded by halogen lamps (up to 30 lm/W), a special type of incandescent lamp. They are equipped with a tungsten filament contained within an inert gas and a small amount of a halogen such as iodine or bromine, permitting higher operating temperatures and thus higher efficiency. About 50 lm/W can be attained with discharge lamps, also called fluorescent lamps. Larger fluorescent lamps are mostly used in commercial and institutional buildings, whereas compact fluorescent lamps, CFL, are available in the same size as traditional incandescents and now used as energy saving alternative (thus also called energy saving lamps). High efficiency discharge lamps are rated category A within the EU energy labelling system due to 50 % to 80 % lower energy consumption compared to standard halogen lamps (category D). An additional benefit of CFLs is the significantly longer lifetime of between 10000 and 15000 hours compared to conventional incandescent lamps (about 3000 hours). An even higher light yield (more than 80 lm/W) is achieved by the new LED (light emitting diode) technology which is currently entering the market. LEDs are semiconductor light sources that were initially used as indicator lamps in electronic devices before being increasingly applied for lighting purposes. Energy efficiency technologies Efficiency gains in lighting can be realised by three different options: decreasing the actual usage rate of the luminaire by demand-related control systems, increasing the efficiency of existing lighting technologies (cf. section above), or introducing new lighting technologies

Techn. status

It is important to note that the maximum efficiency of a lamp is reached when all electrical energy is converted into visible electromagnetic radiation. The maximum value for a perfect cool white light source is 348 lm/W. (VITO, 2007a), (VITO, 2009) Demand-related control systems •

Luminaires with presence detection automatically switch on when people enter a room. The motion detector can be installed in the luminaire or be part of the building management system that gives the lamp the necessary signal. Motion sensors exist with very low standby losses of less than 0.002 W.

EMRGCOMM

Households, tertiary •

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Light-responsive sensors, integrated in the lamp or the building management system, enable a daylight responsive dimming of the luminaire. For indoor use, this type of technology can only be used in the proximity of windows (typically up to 3 m). Dimmable street lighting can adjust the light intensity in response to traffic density, weather conditions and real life lighting performance on the street (also called “intelligent street lighting”)

Lighting

EMRGCOMM

R&D DEMO

(VITO, 2007b) . Improved existing technologies •

Incandescent lamps using a tungsten photonic lattice could further improve the rather low efficiency of incandescent lamps.

R&D

A tungsten filament fabricated with an internal crystalline pattern could transmute the majority of wasted infrared radiation into frequencies of visible light. •

Equipping halogen lamps with reflectors increases the lumi-

COMM

nous flux by reducing spilled backward light, directing the light to the intended surface. Anti-reflective coating on the front cover of the lamp increases the transmission of visible radiation, increasing the luminous flux leaving the lamp by 3 % to 6 % (but still less than 30 lm/W). •

It is possible to improve the efficiency of CFLs by integrating more sophisticated electronic circuits with low power consumption and increasing the efficiency of the switching semiconductor, which can compensate the relatively higher costs. A 10 % efficiency gain can be obtained by operating the lamp at high frequencies (10 kHz instead of 50 or 60 Hz) using electronic ballasts.

R&D COMM

New lighting technologies •

Reflector lamps with WLED (white light emitting diode) use the novel LED technology, which is currently mainly used in display backlighting of portable devices and traffic signs. Further research promises light yields of up to 150 lm/W by combining WLEDs with special lenses.

•

R&D – COMM

Organic LEDs (OLED) are made by placing a series of thin organic films between two conductors. When a current is applied, a bright light is emitted. This technology is particularly advantageous for indoor lighting since OLEDs could be applied as a

R&D EMRG


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Lighting

type of “glowing wallpaper”. Up to 64 lm/W can be emitted by OLEDs. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a). This section provides only an overview of the most important elements. For residential lighting the potential of energy savings is driven by the penetration of the most efficient technologies in the household stock with the following settings: The CFL lamps substitute the incandescent (and halogen) lamps, the LED technology substitutes the CFL lamps. The penetration takes the technical maturity into account. By 2030 60% of stock is composed by CFL lamps and 40% of by the LED technology. The penetration is simulated with a stock model considering the lifetime of lighting options. Rebound effects such as longer use of lighting due to lower energy consumption are taken into account. For office and street lighting an approach was used considering the shares of each end-use in electricity consumption. The data were based on various technical studies, in particular the preparatory studies for Eco-design Requirements of EuPs (Lot 19: Domestic lighting, Lot 8: Office Lighting, Lot on Public street lighting. The fact that these studies aim at finding the policy option with the lowest life cycle costs (LLCC) leads to an underestimation of the technical scenario, as very costly options are not considered. In cases where no data was available, case studies on saving potentials in certain companies were used as basis for own estimates, using the following equation: Pot tech, Rem, t = Pot tech, Ref * (Sh Applicable - Sh Applied, t) For each saving option a technical saving potential, Pot tech, Ref, t, is calculated as average value from the case studies. This is corrected by the share of cases or companies in which the saving option is applicable, Sh Applicable, and the share of companies that have already applied the option at a certain point in time, Sh Applied, t. Result is the remaining technical saving potential at this point in time, Pot tech, Rem, t.


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Green ICT

Households, tertiary - Green ICT Final energy saving potentials

Comparing the energy savings of IT appliances and TVs with the electricity demand in the residential and tertiary sector shows only a slight reduction of the growing demand. In 2030, the total consumption increase would be limited to 75 % instead of 87 % (as forecasted by PRIMES 2009), compared to 2000 values. Until 2050 the overall energy demand for ICT appliances is further growing, hence fully depleting the additional saving gains of 1 Mtoe. The bulk of the energy savings can be attained through energy-efficient TVs (45 % of all savings) and desktop PCs (22 %) e.g. via reduced standby-losses. At the same time, efficiency gains in TV technology risk being partially compensated (or even over-compensated) by increasing screen size (also known as “Rebound effect”). The same applies for server technology due to higher security and data backup demands. In any case, it is necessary mentioning the uncertainty of forecasting mid and longterm developments in the IT sector, due to very dynamic market behaviour, high stock turnover rates and constantly new inventions. Figure 4-28:

Energy saving potentials by Green ICT in the household and tertiary sector compared to the demand for electric appliances and lighting

Source: historical data and FED projections: (European Commission, 2010), energy saving potentials: (ISI, 2009a)


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Green ICT

Cost curve for final energy saving measures The very unpredictable dynamic technology development makes it difficult to estimate the realistic cost for energy saving options for green ICT. However the considerable drop in product prices over the past years suggest that at least best available technology (BAT) saving options which are represent the main driver for cost-effective saving potentials in this study should not result in appreciable additional costs 39. Consequently the overall saving potential is divided into a major part that is economic (solely low hanging fruits, i.e. highly beneficial under high discount rates) due to a wide-spread diffusion of BAT and a second part which needs further financial effort in order to trigger a further diffusion of BAT as well as the market introduction of so-called BNAT (best not available technologies). While set-top boxes and modem routers promise the highest specific benefits (more than -2000 M€’05/Mtoe), IT appliances in the tertiary sector represent the bulk of overall financial savings (€1.4 billion in 2020, €2.4 billion in 2050). TVs and residential desktop PCs experience a boost of the overall potential by factor four in 2030 whereof an important part (2.5 Mtoe) needs to be unlocked by means of political and financial incentives. Figure 4-29:

Cost curve for ICT related saving options


39 According to the EuP case studies, the costs of the BAT options are assumed to be neutral even if the competitive market situation is not taken into account.


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Green ICT


Primary energy savings from Green ICT compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential and tertiary sector


In analogy to the final energy demand potential the primary energy demand reduction due to Green ICT appliances is only minor. As indicated in Figure 4-30 the summed up savings of primary energy demand increase until 2030 and almost remain constant afterwards. In 2050 the overall potential due to more energy efficiency lighting is about 10 Mtoe. In comparison to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, which is at 285 Mtoe in 2050, efficient lighting can contribute by 4 % to primary energy savings. While comparing the lighting savings to the “Ambitious RES” baseline the contribution of efficient lighting has a share of 7 % in 2050. As indicated in Figure 4-31 the overall mitigation potential based on the diffusion of Green ICT appliances increases until 2030 up to 15 Mt CO2-eq, which is 6 % in comparison to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. Afterwards, a cleaner generation of electricity leads to a declining trend of Green ICT contribution down to a total mitigation of 2 Mt CO2-eq in 2050. Thus, the overall share compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline is less than 1 %. On the other hand the share of Green ICT in 2050 compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline is about 8 %, considering conversion savings of about 132 Mt CO2-eq.


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Green ICT

GHG emission reduction from Green ICT compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential and tertiary sector


General information Information and communication technology (ICT) comprises all technical means used to manage information and enable communication, including computer and network hardware, communication middleware as well as necessary software. This includes also telephony, broadcast media, all types of audio and video processing and transmission and network-based control and monitoring functions. An increasing diffusion of ICT appliances in the residential and tertiary sector combined with longer using times drive the significance of the ICT-related electricity consumption, exceeding the average consumption of traditional appliances within a household (see Figure 4-32). Moreover, the transferred data volume rises due to an increasing demand for video and TV internet applications (such as High Definition Television, HDTV) by 46 % per year (cf. Figure 4-33). About 75 % of the total data transfer will be related to residential ICT use (CISCO, 2008), (ISI, 2009a).


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Green ICT

Typical OECD household electricity consumption of major traditional and digital appliances

Source: (IEA, 2009b)

Figure 4-33:

CISCO forecast of global, monthly IP traffic, 2005-2012

Source: (CISCO, 2008)

Technology information In this factsheet, the following ICT components are taken into account: Server and data centres are responsible for computing and managing data in local systems. About 50 % of FED from computing centres is used for cooling issues (BMU, 2009).


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Green ICT

End user appliances can be seen as terminals or access points to the system, controllable by the end user. The traditional appliances are laptops and desktop PCs combined with monitors. Due to the increasing shift from analogue to digital TV transmission, and the combination of phoning, TV and internet (Triple-PlayService), TV screens and PC monitors are assumed to represent the same kind of appliance. The former traditional CRT (cathode ray tube) TV screen is increasingly replaced by LCD (liquid crystal display) screens and other new technologies (see energy efficiency technology section). A general and very important issue of ICT components is the so-called standby mode which enables power saving while the appliance is not actively used and a faster start up of the system without needing to reboot. On the other hand, many appliances cannot be completely shut down, consequently requiring a steady wattage. Energy efficiency technologies The energy efficiency technologies mentioned in the following are distinguished according to the type of component. However, improvements in standby energy consumption apply for all components and are

Techn. status

therefore presented beforehand. Standby mode: technical (and behavioural) options to lower standby consumption of appliances (IZM, 2007a) (IZM, 2007b) •

Integration of a hard off-switch can be easily installed in all

COMM

products. •

Auto- standby / auto-off functions reduce the energy consumption by shortening the on-mode time or by turning the device from a high to a low standby mode (mainly applicable for job related products, e.g. printers)

•

Improved circuit design permits lower wattage of the actual standby-function due to more dedicated microcontrollers

•

Secondary power supply (e.g. batteries or super-capacitors) for standby-functions potentially decrease energy demand, deactivating the main power supply, if higher efficiency in the low power range is attained

Servers and data centres (BMU, 2009), (BITKOM, 2008), (IZM, 2009), (dena, 2009): the cooling demand in data centres accounts for up to 50 % of their total final energy demand. Thus, the bulk of energy savings can be attained in this field:

EMRGCOMM

R&DCOMM R&D


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Green ICT

Providing a sufficiently dimensioned air intake for the server permits optimum convection cooling, operation at higher supply air temperatures and less active cooling demand. A modular design of the server units and automatic temperature control enhance the cooling efficiency.

•

Designing the server for higher operating temperatures of 27

EMRGCOMM

R&D

to 35°C (currently 18°C to 23°C) significantly reduces the cooling demand (up to 30 %), but requires higher standards for all system components. •

Waste heat recovery is an efficient option for satisfying heating and cooling demands simultaneously. Generally, this technology is combined with so-called water-cooling, where the server cabinet doors are used as a heat exchanger, permitting the heat

R&D – EMRG

to be evacuated that is then directly transported to closed heat sinks (office, flat). •

Blade server consists of a number of similar modules that possess only a micro-processor, primary storage and one or two hard drives. All other equipment that is generally needed exists only once within the whole system in order to minimise power consumption.

EMRGCOMM

•

Virtualisation software enables a better workload of server

R&D COMM

and data centres (from 5 % to 15 % up to 60 % to 85 %), thus reducing energy demand by up to 20 %. The idea is to run two or more logical computer systems on one set of physical hardware, reducing the need for basic equipment. Screens: the traditional CRT (cathode ray tube) TV is being steadily replaced by new technologies that work both as a TV as well as a PC screen (IZM, 2007a) (IZM, 2007b), (IVF, 2007): •

In LCD screens, changing from fluorescent to LED backlight unit (BLU) reduces the energy consumption by up to 25 %.

•

R&D – EMRG

Plasma display panels (PDP) are flat panel displays with pixels relying on plasma cells. A gas discharge generates ultraviolet radiation that excites phosphor, converting the radiation into controllable visible light flux. Currently, PDPs are still much more energy-consuming than conventional CRT and LCD screens. However, in the long run, manufacturers expect significant efficiency gains, reducing electricity demand for a 50”

R&D – DEMO


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Green ICT

screen from today’s 400 W down to 70 W. •

OLED screens consist of several thin layers that emit light when voltage is applied. Thus, they do not need backlighting

R&D EMRG

(like LCD screens) and consume less power. Currently, they are mainly used in small portable appliances due to low life expectancy and higher costs. Desktops PCs consume about 1 W in standby mode, 2.5 W in sleep mode and about 23 W in idle mode. Lower consumptions can be reached through the following technologies (IVF, 2007), (IZM, 2009): •

Multi core processors permit simultaneous treatment of several tasks and running at lower clock frequencies compared to

R&D – COMM

single core processors. Since clock frequency and energy consumption directly correlate, efficiency can be improved (e.g. up to 40 % by replacing a single core by a dual core processor). •

Optimised design of power supply with efficiencies of more

COMM

than 90 % instead of former 65 % decrease heat losses. •

Using flash memories instead of hard drives can significantly decrease energy consumption (0.5 W compared to 2 W, which is the approximate consumption of a hard drive during the reading/writing process).

•

Thin clients are PCs without a hard drive. They contain an operating system, but all other software applications are stored on a common server that is used by several thin clients within one system. Energy consumption is very low due to the lower number of components existing in the overall system.

•

R&D – EMRG

The cloud computing idea describes a centralised data and software management approach, comparable with thin clients. But in this case the user is not aware of the physical location and the system configuration, since all applications are used in the online mode. Consequently, the equipment of end-user PCs can be further minimised, reducing final energy demand.

Laptops consume (regarding best available technologies in 2007) about 0.4 W in standby mode, 0.8 W in sleeping mode and 7 W in idle mode. All component improvements mentioned for desktop PCs count likewise for laptops. Hence, additional saving potentials can only be exploited by improving battery efficiency (IVF, 2007):

EMRGCOMM

R&D EMRG


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Green ICT

New battery chemicals such as lithium-mangan-oxide-spinell

R&D – EMRG

(LiMn2O4) or ion-phosphate (FePO4) aim for higher energy capacity, slower battery ageing and a lower self-discharging rate. •

Fuel cells represent an option in the long run to substitute conventional batteries. Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFC) are the

R&D

most appropriate fuel cell type for laptops. Related energy savings depend on the efficiency of the fuel cell, as well as on the efficiency of hydrogen generation. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements.

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Households - Household appliances Final energy saving potentials

Comparing the final energy savings to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, the increasing electricity demand (for appliances and lighting) can be depreciated by some 10 % by 2030. Compared to the value in 2007 the demand increases by 15 % versus 28 % in the baseline scenario. The absolute saving potential sums up to almost 5.6 Mtoe in 2030, mainly triggered through efficient dryers and refrigerators. This potential is rising by 10 % over the subsequent two decades to 6.2 Mtoe until 2050. The relative energy demand reduction is practically stagnating. The main savings results from efficiency improvements in dryers and refrigerator, whereas the other appliances hardly contribute any essential savings. Figure 4-34:

Energy saving potentials in the EU27 until 2030 through efficient household appliances in the household sector compared to the overall residential energy demand for electric appliances and lighting

Source: historical data: (Odyssee, 2011), adjusted, FED projections: (European Commission, 2010), energy saving potentials: (ISI, 2009a)

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Cost curve for final energy saving measures The cost-effectiveness as well as the energy saving potential of the considered household appliances in 2020 is very heterogeneous. Some options are highly economic and have a high energy saving potential (e.g. refrigerators. Further options have a high energy saving potential as well, but are uneconomic (e.g. dryers) and thus require financial support of nearly €1 billion in 2020 in order to fully deplete the potential. The remaining appliances, such as dishwashers have a pretty small area under the curve (i.e. very low financial benefits) based on very small energy savings or even sometimes not visible in the chart due to their small potentials. Looking at the saving potentials in 2020 shows that four out of nine costeffective saving potentials can be declared as LHF and the remaining five saving options with negative specific costs are defined as HHF. The IF-options are four in number. By far the highest cost-effective saving potential can be attained by efficient refrigerators with a LHF saving potential of 0.4 Mtoe and specific costs of 1363 M€’05/Mtoe. To generate energy savings of refrigerators beyond the LHF, i.e. HHF and IF, this technology needs to be addressed by more ambitious policy instruments. In comparison to refrigerators, the other cost-effective saving potentials do not play a key role in 2020. Calculating the net benefits deriving from the entire appliance related saving mounts up to €0.2 billion by 2020 (i.e. the cost savings are nearly compensated by the need for financial support) and €1.6 billion by 2050. Figure 4-35:

Cost curve for saving options in household appliances


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Due to the fact that electricity prices are expected to increase in the upcoming years and the differential costs of the considered appliances remain almost the same the cost curve moves slightly down over the time horizon. Accordingly, no structural changes in the cost curve can be witnessed in the time steps 2020 up to 2050. Comparing the percental share of LHF, HHF and IF in the scope of 2020 and 2050 leads to the conclusion that all three categories develop almost simultaneously. The cost-effective potential increases over the horizon from 1.2 Mtoe to 3.6 Mtoe and the potential of the IF-options from 2.5 Mtoe to 2.6 Mtoe. Overall, the saving potential of household appliances is quantified as 6 Mtoe in 2050. Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials Figure 4-36:

Primary energy savings from efficient household appliances compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential sector


The increasing baseline electricity demand in the household sector (see Figure 4-34) can potentially be reversed into a declining primary energy demand for electric appliances and buildings through a more efficient electricity generation mix (see “conversion savings” in Figure 4-36). In compliance with the rather limited final energy saving potential, the effective primary energy savings through efficient household appliances add up to 8 Mtoe in 2050, which corresponds to relative savings of 5 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline and 10 % compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline.

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The contribution of energy saving potentials to the reduction of GHG emissions is dominated by the decarbonisation of the power sector. Especially the continuous reduction of the specific emissions per unit of electricity in the “Ambitious RES” baseline leads to a decreasing effect of emission reduction through energy savings (cf. Figure 4-37). Hence, the GHG emission reduction potential grows up to 12 Mt CO2-eq until 2030, before dropping down to 2 Mt CO2-eq in 2050. This phenomenon results in a contribution of efficient household appliances to the emission reduction of 6 % and 1 % respectively compared to the PRIMES baseline in 2030 and 2050. Putting the results into relation to the “Ambitious RES” scenario features a stable contribution of 10 %. Figure 4-37:

GHG emission reductions from efficient household appliances compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for electric appliances and lighting in the residential sector


General information European households reported an increasing number of electric appliances over the past years. For example, in 1990 the dishwasher ownership rate was only 0.17 whereas, in 2008 almost every second household had a dishwasher (ownership rate of 0.5). Similar increases can be witnessed for all other types of household appliance (in this section, we consider refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers,

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washing machines and dryers as household appliances whereas TVs and all information and communication technology is addressed in a separate factsheet). Simultaneously, the specific consumption of appliances was able to be reduced by between 25 % and almost 40 %. This improvement was mainly driven by national and European legislation such as the EU Energy Labelling Directive, 92/75/EEC (which has been amended by Directive 2010/30/EU that will be applied from 31 July 2011, introducing energy labels up to A+++), and the EU Ecodesign Directive 96/57/EC (amended by Directive 2005/32/EC). Figure 4-38:

Number of household appliances in EU27


Figure 4-39:

Average yearly specific consumption of household appliances


Technology information A rough overview of the different product categories is given in order to facilitate assessing the energy efficiency technologies mentioned in the next section (IEA, 2003), (ISI, 2009a).

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Most of the refrigeration technologies (freezers and refrigerators) use a vapour compression refrigeration cycle to cool stored food. Side-by-side refrigerator/freezers typically use 35 % more energy than models with the freezer on top. Currently, the most efficient category is A++, corresponding to an Energy Efficiency Index (EEI, calculated as the ratio between yearly energy demand and volume of compartments) of less than 30. Washing machines in Europe use horizontal axis drums (which are more energyefficient and water-efficient than the vertical ones) and most of them heat up the water internally (with the exception of some appliances in Ireland and the UK). Up to 90 % of the energy used to wash clothes is used for water and load heating. The highest energy category of A is attained if the energy needed for one kilo of washing (using a cotton cycle at 60°C with a maximum declared load) is below 0.19 kWh. Clothes dryers exist as stand-alone appliances as well as integrated in washerdryers. In the latter case, energy consumption for thermal drying can be significantly decreased by an intensified use of mechanical spin drying. The efficiency classification ‘A’ represents the most energy-efficient drying class, needing less than 0.68 kWh per kg of washing in the combined case. Dishwashers are usually connected to the cold water tap and heat up the water internally (which accounts for about 80 % of the total energy consumed). For the most common size, the 12 place setting machine, the best energy classification A is awarded to appliances using less than 1.06 kWh per washing cycle. Energy efficiency technologies Since the overall efficiencies of household appliances have already increased significantly in the past, further improvements require greater

Techn. status

efforts and promise only minor savings. (APS, 1999) Refrigerators and freezers (ISIS, 2008), (IEA, 2003) •

Efficiency can be improved by better insulation, including decreased door leakage, using vacuum insulation panels (maximum energy savings: 20 %) or aerogel as insulating material. The latter is a low-density material, featuring pores like a sponge but on a nano-scale size, providing huge surface areas and thus perfect insulation.

•

More efficient compressors represent another option for energy savings. Variable-speed or rated-speed compressors show higher energy conversion efficiency due a special drive enabling

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adjustable speed. •

Optimised electronic control result in improved temperature adjustment and defrost mechanisms avoiding frost on the

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evaporator surface that is substantially lowering the efficiency. Dishwashers (ISIS, 2007) •

Improving mechanical and hydraulic aspects (alternating water spraying and higher pressure water spraying) can reduce the amount of water consumed (from 13-14 litres down to 9-10 litres) which has a direct impact on the energy demand required for water heating.

•

Intelligent sensors detect load weight and degree/type of dirti-

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ness of dishes and water and automatically adjust temperature and amount of water, detergent and timing. •

Reduced thermal bridging between the appliance’s interior and its exterior avoids heat losses and unnecessary water heating. (Cross flow) heat exchangers recover the heat from the

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drained hot water to preheat the incoming fresh water. Washing machines and dryers (ISIS, 2007) •

Sophisticated electronic control of load, water and temperature can determine a large part of the washing cycle independently, optimising consumer behaviour regarding programme settings, thus saving water and electricity.

•

Enhanced spinning speed increases electricity consumption in

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the washing cycle (by 5 % to 10 % at speeds above 1200 rpm) while decreasing the remaining moisture content of the washed load, improving the overall efficiency of the washing-drying cycle. •

Mixed appliances which combine washer, dryer and airconditioner are designed with an air-conditioning cycle, like an

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air-conditioner with a compressor. They enable washing and drying while simultaneously cooling the room where the laundry is washed. Electricity and water demand can be significantly reduced (water: 6 to 4 litres). •

New and alternative washing systems shall use much less water, re-use water or not use water at all, e.g. ozone treatment of the wash liquor, ultrasonic agitation, high performance osmo-

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sis/filtration and steam cleaning. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. The total amount of energy savings is calculated as the product of the specific energy saving of every single technology or energy labelling category and the share of these categories in annual sales. Since the focus here is on the technical potential, the share of technologies is determined by considering the fastest entry to the market of the more efficient products and the fastest phase-out of the least efficient ones. The calculated potentials are based on specific energy consumption data supplied by a manufacturer database and on the average parameter values concerning the appliance use at EU level. The latter may vary considerably in accordance with user habits which might be addressed by energy policies aiming at behavioural changes favouring energy savings. However, only technical improvements were considered here, not behavioural aspects of appliance use.

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Industry - Paper and pulp industry Final energy saving potentials

In the short run, the bulk of energy savings in the paper and pulp industry can be realised using heat recovery systems, increased use of recovered paper and a further diffusion of the shoe press technology. In the longer term, black liquor gasification technology and water-free paper production might considerably decrease the specific energy demand of paper production. Assuming full implementation of the energy saving technologies mentioned, final energy savings of 4 Mtoe in 2030 and 8 Mtoe in 2050 could be realised. This translates into a 12 % decrease in final energy demand by 2030 compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline projection (2050: 24 %), reaching the 1993 level. The potentials and technologies identified exclusively based on a decrease in the process-specific final energy demand. Additional potentials, not included above, can be found in efficient electric drives (integrated in pumps, presses, rolls) and efficient steam and hot water generators (see respective factsheets). Figure 4-40:

Energy saving potentials by efficient paper and pulp process technologies, compared to the FED of the paper industry


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Cost curve for final energy saving measures It is often difficult or impossible to allocate costs to the saving options, as for example it is not possible to draw an adequate system boundary. Moreover energy efficiency is often not the main driver for the implementation of saving options related to process improvements, thus their costs can often not be allocated to the energy saved. Consequently the economic potentials need to be interpreted with caution. Regarding the paper and pulp industry all process technologies considered in the potential analysis are supposed to be cost-efficient. As mentioned before, the cost assessment is very difficult to carry out. Hence, the simplified assumption is made that all cost-effective process technologies are supposed to be HHF due to their limited range of application whereas all economic cross-cutting technologies are supposed to be LHF potentials given their wide-spread deployment. In the base year 2020, the potentials are rather equally spread over the different technologies and the specific cost reduction is homogenous. Over the subsequent decades mainly mechanical pulp and black liquor gasification experience a strong growth of the potential. Simultaneously, process technologies that are mainly driven by basic energy carriers (oil, natural gas, coal), such as thermo compressors or the shoe press, report disproportionately high cost reductions. This is due to the fact that the price rise for the mentioned basic energy carriers is supposed to be stronger than for electricity and heat. Thus, the typical upward trend from most cost-efficient towards most expensive measure is disrupted by single measures that experience cost reductions above the average. Figure 4-41:

Cost curve for saving options in the paper and pulp industry


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Summing up the overall financial benefits through saving technologies reaches €2 billion by 2020 and more than €7 billion by 2050. Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials Figure 4-42:

Primary energy savings from efficient paper industry processes compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the paper industry


The primary energy saving potential of efficiency measures in the paper industry mounts up to 5 Mtoe in 2030 and 10 Mtoe in 2050 (see Figure 4-42). These savings are not significantly higher than the final energy savings, given the fact that the fuel mix for the paper industry is assumed to be mainly relying on electricity as well as natural gas and oil products which feature relatively high (oil and gas) or at least increasing conversion efficiencies. The relative demand reduction through efficiency measures equals 17 % in 2050 compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline and 24 % if conversion savings are deduced from the overall baseline. With regard to the energy-related GHG emissions of the paper industry, efficiency measures can contribute a 14 Mt CO2-eq cut by 2050. This can be translated into a 19 % emission reduction compared to the PRIMES projections or a 24 % reduction with regard to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (cf. Figure 4-43).

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GHG emission reduction from efficient paper industry processes compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the paper industry


General information The paper and pulp industry is one of the most energy consuming branches in Europe, accounting for more than 10 % of Europe’s total industrial energy consumption. While the total production of paper increased by 60 % between 1990 and 2007, final energy demand grew by 47 %. That can be translated into a specific energy efficiency improvement of 10 %. The main paper producing countries in the EU are Germany, Finland and Sweden.

Industry (PT) Figure 4-44:

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Gross value, final energy demand and specific energy demand of the European paper and pulp industry

0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33


Figure 4-45:

Paper production in the EU27


Technology information Paper is made from pulp which can be produced using wood or recycled paper. Pulp production can be differentiated into three alternative processes using different kinds of raw materials and producing different qualities of pulp. In the production of mechanical pulp, wood is shredded and refined to obtain a fibrous pulp. Huge amounts of waste heat are a typical by-product. Chemical pulp is also based on wood as the raw material and is produced using chemicals (sulphite or sulphate), which are used to separate the lignin content from the wood fibres in a cooking process. The lignin (around 50 % of the initial wood) is then burnt in order to generate the high amounts of steam needed for this process. The third process is the production of pulp from waste paper.

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The most energy consuming process is the actual paper production process that converts pulp and other raw materials into paper. The pulp needs to be refined first before it is pressed and dried in order to extract the water. The whole process is very water- and steam-intensive, but electricity consumption is also high due to the large number of electric motor applications in the paper machine. Energy efficiency technologies Due to wide range of different technologies applied in the paper production process, the efficiency technologies are listed according to the different process steps (Wietschel, 2010).

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Mechanical pulp (Franzen, 2006) •

•

Energy efficiency improvements concentrate on shredding and refining the wood, where a series of innovative concepts was developed in the last decade. Although the recovery of waste heat is already widespread, there are still significant saving potentials remaining. In the long run, large energy savings could be made by switching to water-free paper production where resin or artificial ad-

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hesive agents provide the adhesion between fibres. First attempts succeeded in decreasing steam demand but increased electricity demand. Further research is needed in order to attain a net (primary) energy saving. Chemical pulp (Joelsson, 2008) •

Long-term efficiency improvements concentrate on the more efficient (energetic) use of by-products like black liquor and the general development towards a bio-refinery. The gasification

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of black liquor is discussed as a possible key element of such a bio-refinery that would lead to significant efficiency improvements compared to the direct combustion of black liquor. Recovered paper (Blum, 2007) •

Greater use of recovered paper has immense potential in several European countries. Moreover, it is possible to improve the efficiency of the individual process steps. Examples are efficient de-inking, and efficient screening or high-consistency pulping.

Paper production (Laurijssen, 2010), (Blum, 2007) For paper production, efforts concentrate on the efficiency of paper

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drying - the process step that consumes the largest share of steam in the paper machine. •

Paper drying: Improved mechanical dewatering reduces the need for thermal drying. Although these techniques are already widespread, there is still potential for further diffusion. The shoe press technology keeps the paper inside the press

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for a longer period, extracting water from the paper using mechanical pressure and therefore reducing the need for thermal drying by 10 % to 15 %. COMM Thermo compressors increase the pressure of low pressure waste heat, converting it into useful heat for other processes. •

Pulp refining: New refining concepts that claim huge efficiency gains of up to 20 or 30 % have been entering the market in recent years. The chemical modification of fibres is based on new insights into the binding forces between the fibres which differ from the classical theory of hydrogen bonds. A reduced energy demand for mechanical fibre processing results in improved dewatering capabilities and possibly reduced demand for fibres for the

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same amount of paper with the same strength. (Erhard, 2010) Better use of waste heat and heat integration means that significant steam savings of up to 20 % can be realised in paper factories as shown by a number of recent case studies.

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Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. The paper production sector is divided into products and process steps with corresponding saving options. Given the fact that all these processes have a certain specific energy consumption that shows, how much energy is used for a certain amount of physical output (energy consumption per tonne of paper), saving options exist, that can decrease the specific consumption and thus, make the process more energy efficient. In total, about 80 distinct saving options are considered and allocated to the relevant processes. The saving options that were identified have the highest potentials and still moderate costs; Very exotic and still very expensive saving options were not considered even in the technical potential. The technical

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potential is characterised by a high diffusion rate (maximum boundary given by stock and lifetime of technologies) that is: re-investment cycles are considered in the calculated technical potentials. Saving potentials due to dynamics in drivers, e.g. shifts between substitutable processes towards more or less energy intensive processes are not explicitly considered as distinct saving option, still, the effects of process substitutions have an influence on the development of energy intensity and energy demand. These effects are considered part of the autonomous progress for the industrial sector.

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Industry - Steam and hot water generation Final energy saving potentials

The saving potential in industrial heat generation of 13 percent compared to the PRIMES baseline is primarily due to the diffusion of efficient space heating technologies, a further diffusion of combined heat and power (CHP) technology replacing units of separate heat and electricity generation as well as to efficiency improvements of separate and combined heat generation technologies. Approximately 20 Mtoe of all savings result from space heating, another 9 Mtoe result from CHP diffusion and 10 Mtoe from efficiency improvements in boiler and CHP technology. The total technical saving potential mounts up to 44 Mtoe by 2030 and to 95 Mtoe by 2050 compared to the baseline. Not considered are the savings from the application of solar thermal energy as this has hardly been used in industry so far. Furthermore, in the case of CHP it needs to be emphasised that the saving potentials can technically not be considered as final energy because savings only arise if the comparison with a reference with separate generation of heat and electricity occurs at the level of primary energy. Figure 4-46:

Energy saving potentials by efficient steam and hot water generation compared to the overall industrial final energy demand


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Cost curve for final energy saving measures As mentioned beforehand, energy saving options in industrial steam and hot water generation were summarized into three groups: efficient industrial space heating, further diffusion of CHP as well as efficiency improvement of separate and combined heat and power (SHP) generation. For space heating, it is rather easy to determine the economic potentials, assuming that similar investments need to be undertaken as in the tertiary sector for large buildings. Thus the saving potential is divided into a low hanging fruit part (since all economic potentials are highly beneficial even under high discount rates, there are no high hanging fruits) which represents roughly one third and an immature fruit part for the rest. While the LHF potential is further increasing over up to 2050 from 4 Mtoe to 14 Mtoe, the cost reduction involved increases from €0.4 up to €10 billion. The non-economic potential becomes only cost-efficient by 2050, if no financial incentives are undertaken beforehand in order to compensate for the additional investment of the efficiency technology compared to the reference technology. Figure 4-47:

Cost curve for efficiency improvements in industrial steam and hot water generation


Regarding CHP, one can assume that the investment for a CHP plant is even lower than for the construction of two separate plants that generate the same amount of heat and electricity individually. Consequently, the investment add-on for a CHP plant is equal to or even lower than zero. Hence, the decisive factors for the cost-

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effectiveness of a new CHP plant comprise the fuel mix of the generation capacity that is displaced by the CHP plant, the price spread between the fuels used and the electricity produced as well as the efficiency of the CHP and the competing SHP. Since this is a large set of regulating screws that can be adjusted, a parameter variation has been carried out in order to depict the entire range of CHP costeffectiveness. The results and the main assumptions of this sensitivity analysis can be found in the paragraph on the methodology of the potential calculation further below in this fact sheet. For this present economic potential assessment the most probable case has been chosen: new SHP plants consisting of 50 % hard coal fuelled (from 2030 onwards equipped with CCS technology) and 50 % natural gas fuelled plants will be displaced by CHP plants with a mix of 80 % biomass and 20 % natural gas. For SHP as well as for CHP an efficiency improvement in assumed. This scenario is also used in the further potential summation on sectoral as well as on the overall level. Figure 4-47 shows the cost curve of the analysis as well as the specific cost reductions through space heating. While energy saving options for space heating experience a further decrease in specific costs, for CHP the opposed trend can be observed. This effect is driven through a decreasing fuel price spread between the fuels used in SHP and CHP and the electricity produced. Hence, the cost advantage of the CHP plant is continuously compensated by relatively slower increasing fuel prices for SHP plants. Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials The primary energy savings in Figure 4-48 illustrate a constantly increasing potential until 2050. The amount of savings due to CHP is 54 Mtoe and the improved efficiency of space heating sums up to 47 Mtoe. Thus, compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline 17 % could be saved until 2050. Taking also the conversion savings from the industry sector into account (173 Mtoe) an overall primary energy reduction of 46 % in 2050 can be attained.

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Primary energy savings from efficient industrial steam and hot water generation compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


As indicated in Figure 4-49 the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to the diffusion and increased efficiency of CHP and more efficient space heating develops in analogy to the primary energy savings with a constant increase until 2050. In 2050 the greenhouse gas emission reduction is about 244 Mt CO2-eq which is a share of 29 % of the overall emissions compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. Combined with the emission reduction through conversion savings in the industry sector (that occur independently from the CHP diffusion) the total GHG emission reduction might mount up to 433 Mt CO2-eq or 56 %.


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GHG emission reduction from efficient industrial steam and hot water generation compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


General information Steam and hot water are used in industry for a wide variety of different purposes. Whereas temperatures below 100 °C tend to be used for water and space heating in the food and tobacco industries as well as in textiles, temperatures between 100 and 500 °C are needed for many different industrial processes like paper or polyvinyl chloride production. Heat use of temperatures up to 1000 °C and above is very specialised and process-specific, e.g. iron and steel or glass and ceramics (Eichhammer 2009). Based on the predicted trend of the PRIMES 2009 baseline scenario, the energy consumption of steam and hot water appliances is likely to remain more or less stable in the future. Due to the fact that modern appliances for steam and hot water generation already have efficiency levels of 90-95 %, this technology can be described as highly developed (Schmid, 2003).


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Share of total heat demand in the industry sector in EU27

Source: (Schmid, 2003)

Technology information Different types of boilers and burners are applied to generate steam and hot water for industrial use. Commonly used boilers work in a power range of 100 kW – 50 MW and are typically fired by oil, lignite, hard coal, electricity, natural gas (mixed with biogas) or biomass. The choice of boiler generally depends on the process requirements (ISI, 2009a), (ISI, 2009c), (Schmid, 2003), (IEA, 2009a): •

A fire-tube boiler is a type of boiler in which hot gases from a fire pass through one or more tubes that run through a sealed container of water. The heat from the gases is transferred through the walls of the tubes by thermal conduction, heating the water and ultimately creating steam. Firetube boilers are the most widespread boilers used in industry, usually running at a pressure level of 10 to 20 bar with a power of 5 to 15 t/h (89 - 90 % efficiency).

•

For appliances with a steam demand above 50 t/h and a pressure level above 20 bar, water tube boilers are employed (94-95 % efficiency). A water tube boiler circulates water in externally heated tubes. Because the heating surface can be increased indefinitely, the steam output is theoretically not limited to a certain degree.

•

Unlike the previous boiler types, high-speed steam generators heat and evaporate while the feed water is running through tubes. Due to this technical principle, high-speed steam generators are utilised everywhere in indus-

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try where steam is needed in a relatively short period of time. Therefore, the power of high-speed steam generators is limited to 5 t/h and a pressurerange of 1 - 30 bar (87-88 % efficiency). •

When high operating temperatures in the range of 200 - 300 °C and high pressures like 80 bar are needed, e.g. in drying processes in the chemical industry, thermal oil heaters are applied (85-89 % efficiency). In contrast to water-based heat generators, thermal oil heaters use oil as the energy carrier. Energy efficiency technologies

Besides technical improvements to the above mentioned boilers, alternative generation concepts and the greater integration of renewable energies offer substantial saving potentials (ISI, 2009a), (ISI, 2009c), (Schmid, 2003), (IEA, 2009a): •

Combined heat and power generation systems (CHP system) can be used instead of steam boilers to provide steam for processes up to 500 °C. In CHP systems, a variety of technologies is applied such as steam backpressure turbines, condensing

Techn. status

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turbines, gas turbines and combined cycle gas turbines. Their efficiency increases from the former to the latter by approximately 20 % to an overall efficiency above 40 %. •

To increase the heat produced by CHP technologies above 500°C, one option might be to apply a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). Their higher operating temperature up to 900°C makes SOFCs suitable candidates for application with CHP.

•

Economisers operate in a similar way to heat exchangers, ex-

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tracting residual heat from flue gases to subsequently preheat the feed water. Besides integrated solutions, economisers can also be used to retrofit existing generation appliances. •

To apply condensing heating technology, a heat exchanger is installed downstream to the economiser, which cools the flue gases below condensation temperature. During this process, condensing heat is released, which is directly supplied to the closed heating circuit.

•

Depending on the age and fuel type of the burner, the operating excess air lies within a range between 5 and 20 %. Calorific energy is purged in this process. By implementing O2-regulation

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equipment the air supply can be optimised and energy demand minimised. •

Using a continuously variable burner enables boilers to be run in a partial-load operation range which can prevent frequent start-and-stop operation. This can reduce idling losses because the furnace no longer needs to be purged before being triggered.

•

Surface heat losses can be reduced by improving boiler insulation. Typical insulation materials applied include polyurethane

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foam and mineral wool. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the technical potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. The calculation of technical potentials considers eight technology groups for the generation of heat in industry, of which only boilers represent the separate heat production (SHP), all other technologies are applied for combined heat and power generation (CHP): Steam backpressure turbine, Steam condensing turbine, Gas turbine, Combined cycle, Fuel cells, Internal combustion engine, Boilers, Others. Main input variable for the calculations is the heat demand of industry. It is derived in the first part of the model, taking into account the development of production and value added as well as certain sector specific energy saving options and assuming an average combustion efficiency of 85 %. In the next step, the total heat demand is allocated to different temperature levels, as the possibilities and the technologies for supplying heat depend strongly on the temperature needed. Two general groups of saving options in heat generation are implemented: improved diffusion of combined heat and power replacing separate generation of heat and electricity and improved efficiencies in separate as well as combined heat generation. We applied a methodology in accordance with Eurostat (Eurostat 2001) that calculates the savings by comparing the CHP system with an alternative system that might be in place, if the CHP unit would not have been built. The saving potential is defined as the difference between primary energy demands of both systems. Consequently, the choice and definition of the alternative system - the system that was replaced by the CHP plant – has considerable influence on the results.

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The technical potential is characterised by a high diffusion rate of CHP (max 90% of a sector's heat consumption below 500 C to be generated in CHP plants) and a fast EU-wide convergence of plants' mean efficiency values. Regarding the assessment of the economic potential, a parameter variation was carried-out. A detailed description of the calculation procedure carried out can be found in Annex III.


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Electric drives

Industry - Electric drives Final energy saving potentials

Due to the already high efficiency of electric drives the energy saving potentials attributed to this technology are rather low despite their wide range of application. As indicated in the chart, the overall potential of fans, compressed air appliances and pumps are almost equal, which is in the range of 0.25 to 0.3 Mtoe, whereas the savings of cold appliances are just 0.12 Mtoe. The improvement of miscellaneous electric motor driven appliances accounts for about 0.8 Mtoe. Thus, the electricity demand in the European industrial sector can be reduced by 1.8 Mtoe or 0.5 percent until 2030. By 2050, the potential doubles up to 4 Mtoe or 1 % energy savings compared to the baseline. In comparison to the energy savings from system optimisation of motor driven appliances (cf. 4.2.9) the potential of the motor itself is nine times lower. Figure 4-51:

Energy saving potentials of efficient electric drives in the industry sector, compared to overall industrial final energy demand


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Electric drives

Cost curve for final energy saving measures The implementation of energy saving options in cross-cutting technologies is basically very cost-effective. Thus, these options can be achieved with minimal political incentives and therefore are declared as LHF. As indicated in Figure 4-52 the cost curve for electric drives is very easy to interpret. Looking at the year 2020 on the cost curve shows that the potentials are 0.8 Mtoe in the first time interval. To attain this potential the specific costs are -1056 M€’05/Mtoe. Due to the fact that the efficiency of an average electric drive is nowadays about 90 - 95 % the specific costs only change marginally in the subsequent years in comparison to 2020. The specific costs decrease slightly down to -1156 M€’05/Mtoe in 2050 and the saving potentials from 2020 to 2050 are almost quadrupled. Overall, the saving potential of electric drives is quantified as 4 Mtoe. The quadruplication of the saving potential can be entirely translated to the equivalent evolution of the cost savings, growing from nearly €1 billion in 2020 up to more than €4 billion in 2050.

Figure 4-52:

Cost curve for the implementation of high-efficient electric drives in the industry sector


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Primary energy savings from efficient electric drives compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


As indicated in Figure 4-53, the primary energy saving potential increases steadily up to 5 Mtoe until 2050. Thus, in comparison to the PRIMES 2009 baseline approximately 0.8 % of the overall primary energy demand could be reduced by improving electric drive efficiency. Whereas the percental share compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline is 1.1 %. Due to the ambitious transformation of energy supply combined with the fact that electric drives are not very significant in terms of primary energy reduction the overall potential in 2050 to abate greenhouse gas emissions amounts for only 1 Mt CO2-eq (Figure 4-54). Therefore the contribution of electric drives is for each baseline below 1 %.


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GHG emission reduction from efficient electric drives compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


General information In contrast to process technologies that are solely deployed in specific branches cross-cutting technologies are spread over all industrial sectors (cf. Figure 4-55). The cross-cutting technology applied most is the category of electric drives, accounting for 60-70 % of the industrial electricity consumption (cf. Figure 4-56). Typical electric motor-driven applications are pumps, compressors and fans that account for 30 % of the total electricity demand combined. Depending on the type of branch the share of electric drives varies between 35 % and 90 % (ISI, 2009c), (Wietschel, 2010).


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Electricity demand share of cross-cutting technologies by appliance in the European industry sector


Figure 4-56:

European industrial electricity demand by appliances in the industry


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Technology information In general, electric drives convert electric energy into mechanical energy. To provide this function the majority of electric drives operates by the interaction between magnetic fields and current-carrying conductors to generate force to spin the rotor, whereas a minority uses electrostatic fields. In addition most electric drives are also able to run as a generator by reversing this process and thus producing electrical form mechanical energy. For instance, the generator function is necessary when recovering braking energy or any other form of kinetic energy (Almeida 2008). Although a high variety of electric drives is available, asynchronous motors are most prevalent – basically in the power range of a few hundred watts up to 7.5 kW. Their key advantages are to be robust, low-priced and very energy efficient. Therefore, about 80 % of the European energy demand of electrical drives is associated to asynchronous motors (Almeida 2008). Further types of electric drives are usually deployed for niche applications with special requirements. Electric drives are already applied in industrial sector since the mid of the nineteenth century. Since then, continuous improvements in terms of energy efficiency have been accomplished up to a level of 90-95 % (Odyssee, 2011). Nevertheless, a development towards more efficient electric drives is still in progress. (The partially double-labelling of the characteristic curve below is due to the introduction of a new efficiency classification: IE1 = formerly eff2, IE2 = formerly eff1, IE3, etc. Motors labelled with IE4 and even more ambitious IEC-Classifications are not defined, yet.) Figure 4-57:

Differences in efficiency of 4 poled electric motors

Source: (Almeida, 2008)

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Figure 4-58:

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Market share of EFF-motors in the EU27

Source: (CEMEP, 2011)

Energy efficiency technologies Due to the fact that the efficiency of best available drive technology has already reached a level of 95 %, further improvement is hard to gain. Nevertheless, in the light of 60-70 % of industrial electricity consumption, a significant amount in overall savings can already be achieved by

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small steps towards a more efficient design. •

By replacing the aluminium rotor through copper the electrical resistance decreases. Thereby, the asynchronous motor efficiency can be increased by additional 1.5 to 3.3 percentage

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points (Deivasahayam, 2005). As a result of a simulation study (Doppelbauer, 2005) even computed an enhancement of efficiency from 2.1 to 6.9 percentage points, depending on the power class of the electric drive. •

In smaller performance categories permanent-magnet motors can even achieve a better efficiency than the most efficient

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asynchronous motor. A permanent-magnet motor does not have a filed winding on the stator frame, instead relying on permanent magnets to provide the magnetic field against which the rotors field interacts to produce torque (Lindegger, 2006). •

Superconducting motors are new types of alternating current (AC) synchronous motors that employ HTS (high temperature superconductor) windings in place of conventional copper coils.

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Because HTS wire can carry significantly larger currents than copper wire, these windings are capable of generating much more powerful magnetic fields in a given volume of space. Therefore, minimum losses in conduction of electricity can be achieved (Wietschel, 2010). Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. The main database is represented by the preparatory studies for energy using products on Lot 11 covering electric motors. For electric motors a stock model was used based on motor efficiency classes IE1 to IE4. The technical potentials was characterised by a high diffusion rate of saving options (maximum boundary given by stock and lifetime of technologies).


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Industry – E-drive system optimisation Final energy saving potentials

As illustrated in the chart, holistic improvements of motor driven systems can lead to a fundamental decrease in electricity consumption until 2030. Variable speed drives are estimated to have the highest saving potential with 4 Mtoe, followed by the implementation of demand related control systems (2.2 Mtoe) and the avoidance of oversizing (2 Mtoe). Compared to the technical improvements, the separately listed organizational measure, regular maintenance, has a minor impact which is a share of five percent of the overall saving potential. In comparison to the physical improvements of electric drives (see factsheet electric drives) these measures can lead to a nine times higher saving potential. Putting this into perspective to the PRIMES baseline projection, the overall energy savings assessed for the optimisation of electric motor driven systems is 19 Mtoe or 6 % by 2030 and 40 Mtoe or 11 % by 2050. Figure 4-59:

Energy saving potentials of e-drive system optimisation measures in the industry, compared to overall industrial final energy demand


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Cost curve for final energy saving measures The implementation of the energy saving options in cross-cutting technologies is basically very cost-effective. Thus, these options can be achieved with minimal political incentives and therefore are declared as LHF. As indicated in Figure 4-60 the energy saving potentials as well as the specific costs for e-drive system optimisation are steadily growing until 2050. The utilization of variable speed drives is the most cost-effective saving measure with -912 M€’05/Mtoe and energy savings of 3 Mtoe, which is 21% of the overall energy savings in 2020. Looking at the combination of energy saving potentials and specific costs in 2020 of the remaining options the avoidance of oversizing, demand related control systems and the application of high efficiency appliances are in the second, third and fifth place in terms of specific costs each with an energy saving potential between 1.2 and 1.7 Mtoe. Furthermore, the utilization of direct drives instead of belts and the optimisation of ducting are exclusively illustrated in the chart as costeffective measures, but only with a minor impact regarding their saving potential. Figure 4-60:

Cost curve for energy savings through e-drive system optimisation


Last but not least all the other saving options that are not discussed in detail in this study play a substantial role as well. These options are illustrated en bloc referred to as other options with specific costs of -1113 M€’05/Mtoe and energy savings of 4.9 Mtoe in 2020. Just the regular maintenance is not cost-effective, which results from high labour costs for maintenance specialists. These costs do not compensate the monetary energy savings. Comparing the costs and energy potentials of the subsequent years with 2020, nothing surprising can be witnessed. The energy potentials gain for every measure, the negative specific costs increase steadily and

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the positive specific costs of the regular maintenance decrease respectively, which is based on the reason of growing electricity prices. Overall, the saving potential of e-drive system optimisation is quantified as 40 Mtoe in 2050. The net benefits resulting from e-drive system optimisation mount up to nearly €14 billion by 2020 (whereof less than one percent is needed to compensate for the additional costs through regular maintenance) and €45 billion by 2050. Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials Figure 4-61:

Primary energy savings from e-drive system optimisation compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


Until 2050 there is a constant increase of primary energy savings up to 50 Mtoe (cf. Figure 4-61). In relation to the PRIMES 2009 baseline the optimisation of electric drive systems amounts for 8 %. Given the potential of conversion savings of up to 173 Mtoe in 2050 the percental share of primary energy savings compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline is 12 %. Regarding greenhouse gas emissions the reduction that can be achieved increases to a level of 41 Mt CO2-eq until 2030 and afterwards decreases down to 10 Mt CO2-eq in 2050. Thus, the contribution of optimised electric drives ranges between 1 % and 2 % (see Figure 4-62).


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GHG emission reduction from e-drive system optimisation compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the industry sector


General information E-drive system optimisation is a holistic approach that considers all elements of a technical system. Therefore, instead of solely improving the performance of physical components the system optimisation approach aims to increase the efficiency of the system as a whole by involving technical as well as organizational improvements. To ensure the prevention of overlapping between system optimisation measures and electric drives, technical improvements of the motor itself are not considered as system optimisation. Hence, no double counting of potentials does take place. Technology information Per definition, e-drive system optimisation influences organizational and technical procedures as well as behavioural patterns in order to reduce the total operational energy consumption, to use basic and additional materials economically and to continuously improve the energy efficiency in the company. In other words, system optimisation is a tool to enable continuous and systematic use of added energy saving potential to ensure minimum energy consumption for the current activity.

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Due to high expected energy saving potentials associated with system optimisation the Directive EN 16001 came into force in 2009 defining standardised EU-wide criteria. EN 16001 is a classical management system standard which is in principle not specifically sector-oriented or designed for certain types of companies. In terms of electric drive related system issues all kind of aspects can be defined as energy management or system optimisation, they simply need to increase the overall efficiency by improving the configuration of the system. Energy efficiency technologies In contrast to the other wedges where short term and long term perspectives are distinguished due to the development stage of the considered technology, the holistic approach of e-drive system optimisation cannot be divided in this manner. Thus, all measures introduced in the following could – in theory – immediately be implemented (Almeida, VSDs for electric motor systems, 2000) (Almeida, VSDs for electric motor systems, 2000), (Almeida, Improving the penetration of energy-

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efficient motors and drives, 2001), (Almeida, 2008), (IEA, 2009a). •

An adjustment of speed and torque to the load requirements could be achieved by using variable-speed drives (VSD). VSD

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is a system for rotational speed of an alternating current electric drive by controlling the frequency of the electrical power supplied to the motor. •

Despite the fact that belt drives are not state-of-the-art anymore, some motor related devices still utilise this mechanism to transmit the torque from an electric drive to the application. The associated slip losses can be avoided by using direct drives instead of belts.

•

•

When using electric motors to drive pumps, fans or compressed air components the optimization of ducting leads to further

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improvement of energy efficiency.

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The degree of efficiency in a technical system is generally determined as the product of efficiencies of the single components. Thus, just by exclusively using high efficiency appliances the possibility to consume an optimum or rather a mini-

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mum of electricity can be achieved. •

To avoid oversizing electric drives, the motor specifications need to be matched with the requirements of the application or the whole system, respectively. Otherwise the motor runs at a

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sub-optimal load factor which significantly reduces the efficiency of power use. •

A further controlling aspect to improve electricity efficiency is to implement a demand related control system. This kind of systems are nowadays usually designed as a closed loop control which automatically move the system to the desired operating point and maintain it at that point thereafter by using some or all of the outputs as input parameters to optimise the system in terms of efficiency.

•

Besides technical aspects further efficiency can be achieved by proper and regular maintenance. Depending on the type of system, e.g. compressed air or ventilation, the workload to realise this measure varies. Thus, costs are the limiting factor to gain the optimal potential in this case.

•

Besides these measures to improve efficiency a multitude of small / other options exists to save electricity in a motor driven system. Measures attributed to this category are in general directly linked to specific cross-cutting technologies like surface smoothing and coating is related pumps or frequent replacement of filters, which is relevant for compressed air as well as for ventilation systems.

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Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. In order to estimate the impacts of holistic system optimisation on motor systems, case studies on saving potentials in certain companies were used as basis for own estimates, and used in the following equation: Pot tech, Rem, t = Pot tech, Ref * (Sh Applicable - Sh Applied, t) For each saving option a technical saving potential, Pot tech, Ref, t, is calculated as average value from the case studies. This is corrected by the share of cases or companies in which the saving option is applicable, Sh Applicable, and the share of companies that have already applied the option at a certain point in time, Sh Applied, t. Result is the remaining technical saving potential at this point in time, Pot tech, Rem, t.

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The interactions between different saving options acting on the same system were taken into account by reducing the mutual potentials.

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Transport - Technical improvements Final energy saving potentials

In 2030, the technical potential of road transport efficiency technologies sums up to more than 77 Mtoe energy savings, accounting for about 26 % reduction of final energy demand in 2030 compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. That can be translated by a decline in energy demand back to the 1990 level. Further savings of 13 Mtoe permit reducing the final energy demand of road transport by means of technical improvements by one third up to 2050. More than half of the saving potential is based on improved efficiency of passenger cars and one third results from more efficient trucks and light duty vehicles. In addition to the technologies mentioned above that focus only on conventional internal combustion engines, alternative fuels (e.g. liquefied petroleum gas, LPG, or hydrogen) and alternative drive concepts represent additional energy saving options. They are analysed in further detail in the factsheet called “e-Mobility”. Figure 4-63:

Energy saving potentials of technical improvements, compared to the overall final energy demand in the road transport sector


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Cost curve for final energy saving measures Analysing the technical potentials regarding their financial costs and benefits leads to the conclusion that the predominant potentials from technical improvements in passenger cars are mostly cost-effective, featuring specific energy saving reduction costs of -1152 M€’05/Mtoe (LHF) and -732 M€’05/Mtoe (HHF), respectively. Only motorcycles report even more attractive cost reductions, however their overall impact is quite smaller due to the little potentials. Freight transport represents the opposed picture: in 2020, more than half of the potential is non economic, hence requiring additional financial support which even exceeds the specific benefits from the passenger transport LHF potential (1517 ME’05/Mtoe vs. 1153 M€’05/Mtoe). Nevertheless, the potential from the passenger cars related low hanging fruits is twice as much as the potential of the freight transport related immature fruits, hence entirely compensating for additional costs. Figure 4-64:

Cost curve for saving options through technical improvement in the transport sector


Creating incentives for the entire deployment of the cost-effective potential (i.e. the low and high hanging fruits) could trigger benefits of more than €26 billion in 2020. If the political measures are enlarged on the entire set of cost-effective measures, the benefits would exceed €30 billion by 2020. Nearly one third of these benefits would be sufficient for unlocking the potentials that are not cost-efficient yet

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(basically technical improvements in road freight transport), leading to netbenefits of €18 billion in 2020. Over the subsequent decades up to 2050 the specific financial savings as well as the overall cost-efficient potentials savings will roughly double, resulting in an approximate quadruplication of the financial benefits by 2050. Although the share of immature fruits is further growing, its specific costs are decreasing too, reducing the need for financial incentives to such an extent that the net benefits are even growing by factor five. The fuel mix is the main driver for the degree of fuel price reduction over time. Since motorcycles are solely gasoline-fuelled and gasoline is the most expensive fuel, a similar percental price increases for all fuels lead to surpassing cost reductions for motorcycles. This explains why motorcycles are actually reporting the strongest cost reduction over time which is the reason for the increasing deformation of the cost curve shape. Consequently, diesel fuelled trucks and LDVs benefit less from fuel price rises than diesel and gasoline fuelled passenger cars which in turn benefit less than motorcycles regarding the net decrease of specific energy saving costs. Primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potential Figure 4-65:

Primary energy savings from technical improvements compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the road transport sector


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The ratio between final and primary energy demand in the transport sector differs substantially from the remaining sectors. Given the fact that oil products represent the predominant energy carrier in the transport sector 40 being generated with relatively low conversion losses (see also section 4.1.4), final and primary energy demand as well as the respective saving potentials are of the same order of magnitude. Thus, the conversion chain from primary to final energy provides only limited potential for further efficiency improvement. Hence, technical improvements in the road transport sector represent primary energy saving potentials of 84 Mtoe by 2030 and 93 Mtoe by 2030. These figures correspond to a 20 % and 25 % reduction compared to the PRIMES baseline or a 21 % and 26 % reduction compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (cf. Figure 4-65). Figure 4-66:

GHG emission reduction from technical improvements compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the road transport sector


The conversion of primary energy savings into GHG emission reductions results in a decrease of 254 Mt CO2-eq by 2030 and 278 Mt CO2-eq by 2050. The bulk of the savings is the delivered by technical improvements in passenger cars (170 Mt CO2-eq in 2050) and in goods transport vehicles (99 Mt CO2-eq in 2050).

40 In the present analysis the focus is set on the assessment of the energy saving potential through conventional drive concepts. Alternative drive concepts using other energy carriers such as electricity are addressed separately in 4.2.12 and Annex IV.

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The relative emission reduction in 2050 equals 28 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline and 29 % compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (see Figure 4-66). General information The development in the road transport sector is characterised by a steady increase in the final energy demand (FED) amounting to 30 % over the past two decades (in 2007: 303 Mtoe), although some countries (such as Germany, France, Italy or UK) are already showing stabilised or even decreasing trends. Passenger transport accounts for nearly 60 %, goods traffic for about 38 % of FED in road transport, while public transport and motorcycles represent only 2 % and 1 %, respectively. The specific fuel consumption of passenger cars (measured in litres of fuel per 100 kilometres) reported an actual efficiency improvement. However, total energy demand increased due to increasing passenger and goods transport (cf. Figure 4-73) The number of gasoline cars grew by only 10 % compared to 1990s level, while the number of diesel vehicles increased dramatically (350 % for passenger cars, 150 % for trucks and light duty vehicles, LDVs). Consequently, 232 million passenger cars, about 35 million trucks and LDVs and roughly 30 million motorcycles are on Europe’s streets today. This factsheet only addresses energy saving technologies for conventional cars equipped with an internal combustion engine. Alternative drive concepts (such as electric vehicles or fuel cell cars) and fuel savings through behavioural changes are discussed in the respective factsheets. Figure 4-67:

Final energy demand of road transport in EU27


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Average specific fuel consumption of passenger cars (existing stock compared to new cars)

9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0


Technology information Public and goods transport is mainly based on diesel (about 94 % in 2007), whereas the majority of passenger cars run on gasoline. However, there is a remarkable shift taking place from gasoline to diesel engines (in 2000, only 25 % of all cars ran on diesel, in 2008, already nearly every second car did so). The growing interest in diesel-fuelled cars is due to the major advantage of diesel engines, which have about 35 % greater fuel economy than gasoline engines with similar CO2 emissions. According to the EU Car Labelling Directive 1999/94/EC (European Commission, 1999), cars emitting less than 100 g/km of CO2 are rated best (A), while those emitting more than 250 g/km have the lowest rating, i.e. G. For gasoline, A corresponds to about 4.1 litres per 100 kilometres and G to about 9.5 litres per 100 kilometres. Energy saving technologies Since most of the efficiency technologies that can be applied to passenger cars are suitable for both light and heavy duty vehicles, they are not distinguished by car type if there are no major differences. The bulk of energy savings are covered by fuel efficiency improvements inside the engine, however the whole range of potential measures is listed below (IEA, 2005), (IEA, 2010b), (Kobayashi, 2009): •

Engine: The average efficiency of the engine and the drivetrain can be increased by reducing internal friction losses (e.g. us-

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ing low friction oils), limiting the engine’s consumption during idling and braking periods and direct fuel injection. Direct injection a more accurate fuel proportioning of the fuel injected and improved injection timing. Thus more complete combustion delivers higher performance with up to 18 % lower fuel consumption. This efficiency gain is partly due to intake valve control and other engine technologies, too. Other important technologies include cylinder shutoff during low load conditions and improved valve timing and lift controls. Diesel engines can be further improved by combining direct fuel injection and turbocharging (also called fuel stratified in-

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jection). This allows more compressed air and fuel to be injected into the cylinders, generating extra power from each explosion, i.e. smaller engines but the same performance. •

Transmission: Limiting engine speed makes it possible to run the engine at the optimal operation point. Altering engine speed is done by changing the transmission ratios through the use of 6 or 7 speed manual or automatic gear boxes. Continuously variable transmission (CVT) uses a pair of variable-diameter pulleys connected by a belt or chain that can produce an infinite number of engine/wheel speed ratios instead

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of relying on a fixed number of metal gears. •

Body: Reducing the tractive force requirements results in direct fuel savings. Light weight vehicle body constructions made of aluminium can result in up to 0.3 l/km per 100 kg of weight saved. Aerodynamic efficiency (drag reduction) is expected to con-

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tinue to improve (after mean improvements of 10 to 15 % every decade in the past) until practical thresholds are reached beyond which any further improvement will involve significant compromises in appearance and space utilisation.

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Low rolling resistance tyres reduce hysteresis losses by using new types of rubber and new belt materials and by improving the design of the tread and side-wall. Decreased rolling resistance lowers gasoline consumption by an estimated amount of 1.5 – 4.5 %. (CEC, 2003) •

Accessories: Typical engine-related accessories include the al-

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ternator, the power steering pump or the oil and water pump which have low efficiencies due to low costs. Integrating very efficient accessories can further decrease the fuel demand. Advanced air conditioning systems using electrical heat pumps can reduce loads by 70 to 75 %. Improved roof insulation and using specially tinted glass as a barrier to infrared

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radiation are other options. Calculation methodology As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. Data from the TREMOVE model have been chosen as the source from which all activity data needed for transport were taken. This is due to the fact that the energy drivers considered by this model are taken from PRIMES which was used to analyse other energy efficiency potentials. In particular also rebound effects in the form of increased car size were taken from this model. For the estimate of the technical potential 80g CO2/km were considered to be achievable as a maximum in 2025 (125g CO2/km in 2012, 95g CO2/km in 2020; 80g CO2/km in 2025; value constant after 2025 up to 2030) According to the European Parliament, long-term targets “will possibly require further emissions reductions to 70g CO2/km or less by 2025.” Nevertheless, it can be assumed that such a target may also require additional adding of biofuels. The ability to add further biofuels (at least the ones of first generation) is currently an issue of debate. Starting from these average values for Europe, country specific developments were determined based on present level differences among the stocks in the countries. For light duty vans the technical potential was considered to be at 130g CO2/km in 2020 (160g CO2/km in 2012; value decreasing to 120g CO2/km up to 2030). The technical potentials for trucks and trailers have been investigated empirically by truck manufacturers and were used to calculate energy efficiency potentials for goods transport.


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Transport – Behavioural changes Final energy saving potentials

The total amount of energy savings sums up to 38 Mtoe in 2030, which corresponds to a 13 % demand reduction compared to the PRMIES baseline projection. In the short term, passenger road transport promises fast efficiency gains whereas the influence of goods transport prevails in the long run. By 2050, only a slight potential rise of some additional 6 Mtoe permits dropping the overall final energy demand of road transport by 16 %. Generally speaking, eco-driving plays a more important role in passenger transport whereas the load factor increase is considered more significant for freight transport. The decreasing technical potential for passenger cars beyond 2015 can be explained by an assumed enhanced autonomous diffusion of energy saving technologies in the baseline scenario, reducing the actual amount of additional energy savings. Figure 4-69:

Energy saving potentials of behavioural changes, compared to the total final energy demand of road transport


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Cost curve for final energy saving measures Figure 4-70 depicts very well that any kind of behavioural change in passenger transport is directly correlated with a net financial benefit. While between 2020 and 2030 a certain number of technical efficiency improvements (see also 4.2.10) are supposed to occur that drop the saving potential of behavioural oriented measures, the financial advantage of behavioural change is steadily increasing due to rising fuel prices. The matter of fact that some potential need stronger political push (HHF, -838 M€’05/Mtoe) than others (LHF, -1900 M€’05/Mtoe) can be explained by the various types of side-effects (e.g. avoiding high speeds is related to longer driving periods). This effect is even more significant in freight transport where single measures (such as lower driving speeds) directly correlate with increased labour costs. Hence, nearly 44 % of all behavioural changing measures in road freight transport are considered as immature fruits until rising fuel prices compensate additional labour costs. Nonetheless, the deployment of the entire range of potentials drives benefits of €23 billion for passenger and €4 billion for goods transport in 2020, rising up to €33 billion and €20 billion respectively by 2050. Figure 4-70:

Cost curve for saving options through behavioural changes in the transport sector


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Primary energy saving potentials from behavioural changes compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the transport sector


Figure 4-71 depicts the primary energy saving potentials from behavioural changes in the passenger and goods road transport. The potentials equal 41 Mtoe in 2030 and 46 Mtoe in 2050 which corresponds to roughly half of the savings deriving from technical improvements. Putting the potentials into relation with the PRIMES 2009 and the “Ambitious RES” baseline (PRIMES 2009 baseline less the savings from a more efficient energy conversion process of primary into final energy) leads to relative reductions of 10% and 11 % in 2030 as well as 12 % and 15 % in 2050. In terms of emission reductions, behavioural changes can potentially contribute 126 Mt CO2-eq in 2030 and 141 Mt CO2-eq in 2050. The relative reduction compared to the baseline pathways is slightly higher for the years 2030 and 2050: 11 % and 14 % with regard to the PRIMES 2009 baseline as well as 12 % and 17 % with regard to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (cf. Figure 4-72).


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GHG emission reduction from behavioural changes compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand for the transport sector


General information Passenger as well as goods traffic have increased by more than 40 % and 70 %, respectively, over the last two decades. At the same time final energy demand increased by only 30 % which might be linked to the registered 12 % decrease in specific fuel demand per person kilometre, or ton-kilometre, respectively. This improvement is not necessarily due to technological progress, but could be related to changes in driving behaviour, too. However, statistics verify that the average load of passenger cars has been steadily decreasing since 1994 (by 10 % until 2008) resulting from a significant increase in the passenger car stock instead of a declining car use. This factsheet addresses solely behavioural changes, fuel saving driving patterns and optimization of load factors and transportation needs. All the information regarding technological improvements and alternative drives is collected in the respective factsheets.


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Total passenger and goods traffic and their specific consumption in the EU27

0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00


Figure 4-74:

Specific vehicle load of passenger cars and goods traffic


Driving behaviour information In order to identify the main factors determining fuel demand in the transport sector, the following aspects need to be considered: •

specific consumption of the car per kilometre,

•

the specific car load (in terms of persons or tons of goods transported by one vehicle),

•

the total number of persons and tons of goods transported and

•

the distance covered.

The last three points are related to the actual need for driving. Optimizing one of them can be directly translated as a reduction in vehicle use, whereas the first point is related to the car’s technical efficiency and how it is used. In this factsheet, all

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four issues are addressed by so-called behaviour influencing measures that are partly based on the introduction of additional technologies. The following section first deals with the possibilities and technologies to reduce the demand for car transportation. Afterwards the focus shifts to energy-efficient driving patterns (eco-driving). Behavioural changes and efficiency technologies Most of the efficiency gains due to behavioural changes could theoretically be implemented in the short run, since they do not necessarily need the assisting technology. However, despite the economic advantage that is often linked to these changes, incentives need to be established first to raise public awareness of them. Distinguished by the type of efficiency, potential behavioural changes and the assisting technologies are described in the following (Leonardi, 2004), (Kobayashi, 2009), (TNO, 2006), (TNO, 2009): Logistics and route efficiency •

The vehicle load factor for passenger cars can be increased by simply forming groups to share the same car for a trip, whereas in the field of freight transport, trip optimisation software and IT-based scheduling is used to plan and schedule the routes for trucks and vehicles. Such software minimises empty trips, optimises the choice of vehicle category and helps to optimise the entire transportation chain from origins to delivery. Moreover, a holistic approach to managing numerous transport units of a company allows substantial minimization of the average transport distance.

•

Additionally, using information and communication technologies (ICT) can supply the car driver with additional information regarding road conditions or traffic which can help to optimise the itinerary.

•

Infrastructure improvements and intelligent transport technologies (e.g. better routing systems, mainly in urban areas) reduce congestion, increase the average speed and thereby decrease the specific fuel consumption.

Eco-driving •

Fuel consumption can be decreased by up to 10 % with training or assistance from on-board units used for measuring specific components of driving behaviour.

•

Running the engine in its most efficient operating range, i.e. where fuel efficiency is highest (between 1200 and 3000 rotations per minute (rpm)), permits significant fuel savings. This can be done by shifting gear earlier (2000 to 2500 rpm), avoiding unnecessary (too strong) accelerations, high

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speeds and keeping the speed as steady as possible. Gear shift indicators inform the driver when the engine is running under unfavourable conditions. Driver assistance systems, such as automated manual transmission, decide for the driver when shifting gear is appropriate without affecting the driving itself, only the efficiency. •

Keeping the car rolling without disengaging the clutch in the highest gear possible or avoiding unnecessary braking avoids fuel wastage but requires that the driver can anticipate upcoming traffic situations.

•

Regular checks of tyre pressure, avoiding vehicle idling, e.g. by turning the engine off when the vehicle is stationary, or even avoiding the use of air conditioning can add substantial fuel savings without any need for new technologies. Calculation methodology

As described in the general methodology section the potentials have been calculated on a scenario approach. Details of the methodology are presented in ISI (2009a); this section provides only an overview of the most important elements. Measures taken into account in analysing non-technical potentials in the transport sector (where this type of potentials are most relevant at present) are in particular, eco-driving strategies for passenger transport, as well as speed reduction for freight transport and the increase in the freight load factors. For eco-driving strategies the technical potentials were linked to the maximum performance that could be achieved on average in typical eco-driving tests and programmes (around 10 % of the energy could be saved) and it was assumed that the changes in behaviour would be permanent. Similar from load management studies it was deduced that a maximum of 3 % of freight energy could be saved through improved load management. Thirdly, the impact of reduced speed for freight traffic was deduced from energy consumption studies of truck manufacturers. Between technical improvements and behavioural energy saving potentials interactions were considered, i.e. for example when cars get more efficient from a technical point of view, less savings are achievable through behavioural changes.


141

e-Mobility

Transport – e-Mobility Energy saving potentials on EU level

The diffusion of electric, grid-connected car drive concepts, i.e. battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) can drive additional final energy savings. However the comparison of electric and conventional vehicles (equipped with an internal combustion engine) neglects the fact that electricity and fossil fuels are two very different energy carriers 41. Moreover one should note that all kind of electric vehicles are still considered as niche applications. Thus it is difficult to forecast to which extend they will actually prevail against competing technologies (such as hydrogen, biofuel or gas fuelled cars) and diffuse into the market. Figure 4-75:

Energy savings through e-Mobility in two scenarios, compared to the final energy demand of passenger road transport

Source: historical data: (Odyssee, 2011), FED projections: (European Commission, 2010), energy saving potentials: Fraunhofer ISI

41 Electricity is a highly valuable energy carrier that is mainly produced with significant losses (if not generated from renewable energy sources) whereas its conversion efficiency into other energy types is particularly high. Instead, fossil fuels (such as gasoline or diesel) are produced in refineries with rather low losses (less than 10 %), whereas the conversion into mechanical energy causes the bulk of losses (more than 50 %).

Transport (road)

142

e-Mobility

In the present analysis, two diffusion scenarios are analysed. Their results are nevertheless are strongly sensitive on the various assumptions and simplifications 42. More detailed information can be found in Annex III. The energy saving potential estimation carried out does only consider passenger cars since the application of electric drives in light duty vehicles and trucks is still uncertain and strongly depends on the further evolution of battery technology. Figure 4-75 gives an overview of the energy saving potentials under the two scenarios analysed. The Moderate scenario presumes a relevant stock increase of electric vehicles (BEV and PHEV at the same pace) from 2025 onwards, leading to a 30% share of electric vehicles by 2050 (cf. Figure 4-76), as expected in (EWI, 2010). This is equivalent to roughly 80 million electric cars, considering an overall car stock of 280 million passenger cars, cf. (ISI, 2009c). The associated energy savings, based on specific fuel consumptions that are explained in more detail in the subsequent sections, mount up to 1 Mtoe by 2030 and 16 Mtoe by 2050. Related primary energy savings mount up to comparable values. Figure 4-76:

Stock of electric vehicles in the Moderate and the Ambitious scenario, EU27


The Moderate scenario was completed by a second, more ambitious scenario (called “Ambitious scenario”) that is partially based on the projection from (ISI, 2008) The projection presumes an early growth of PHEV stock from 2020 onwards whereas BEV will only experience their large-scale market introduction by 2030. In

42 Hence, the final energy saving potential which is mentioned in the following and completed by a primary energy savings assessment is addressed separately from the overall saving potentials calculated in the transport sector and excluded from the assessment of the overall saving potentials.

Transport (road)

e-Mobility

143

2050, two cars out of three on Europe’s streets are either a PHEV or BEV, i.e. 190 million electric cars in total. Consequently, the final energy saving potential could be increased up to 4 Mtoe in 2030 and 36 Mtoe in 2050. A cost-benefit-analysis was not carried out for e-Mobility since an independent study would be required in order to account for the complexity of this topic. General information Electricity used in electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids is supposed to play an increasingly important role not only in meeting transport fuel demand in the future. They can also help mitigating problems over the fluctuating nature of some renewable energy sources (such as wind power and photovoltaics) by providing their battery capacity for short term electricity storage during peak RES power production. According to the latest IEA Technology Roadmap (IEA, 2011a) from June 2011, eMobility has already arrived on the political agenda. In the last 12 months, various EV and PHEV sales targets existing were formulated on national level (cf. Table 4-9. Table 4-9:

Overview of different national electric vehicle sales targets within the EU27

Country

Electric vehicles

Plug-in hybrids

France

2,000,000 by 2020

Germany

1,000,000 by 2020

Spain

2,500,000 by 2020 1,200,000 stock by 2020

350,000 stock by 2020

3,300,000 stock by 2030

7,900,000 stock by 2030

United Kingdom Source: (IEA, 2011a)

Technology information Although the majority of the current car fleet uses a gasoline or diesel fuelled internal combustion engine (ICE), there are alternative fuel and drive concepts. Alternative fuels for running on a combustion engine Minor technical changes of the ICE technology permit natural gas (CNG), petroleum gas (LPG) or hydrogen combustion. CNG/LPG cars provide a higher efficiency if they are designed for only one fuel. This is due to the higher antiknock properties of the gas that allow higher compression and thus increase the effi-

Transport (road)

144

e-Mobility

ciency, whereas the combined use of gas and gasoline results in a reduced efficiency (Pehnt, 2011). Hydrogen (H2) has a very high mass related energy density and features a particularly efficient combustion process. However, the storage of hydrogen in cars requires high pressures or very low temperatures in order to enable sufficient amount of hydrogen stored in the tank. Otherwise a comparable cruising range of hydrogen fuelled cars with conventionally fuelled ICE cars is not given. The leakage of the hydrogen fuel tank represents another serious issue that needs to be addressed in future research. Biofuels represent another alternative fuel type that does not require significant modifications of the conventional ICE. To which extent these fuels drive additional energy savings, cannot be assessed within the framework of this study. Alternative drive concepts The main focus in this factsheet is set on cars using electric drive concepts. The electric drive is either powered by electricity delivered by the battery stack or by electricity delivered by a fuel cell system. In the latter case, the energy as such is stored in the form of hydrogen. Consequently, we distinguish four different types of electric-powered cars (ISI, 2010): •

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) combine a conventional ICE with an electric motor. In addition to the fuel tank a battery package is installed in order to store the electric energy delivered by the electric motor. In parallel HEVs the electric motor and the engine can provide the drive torque independently from each other, whereas in series HEVs the car is driven by the electric motor and the electric energy is delivered by the ICE-generator system via the battery.

•

Plug-in-hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are HEV that are additionally equipped with a power connection enabling battery charging by the motor as well as by the power grid.

•

Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are comparable to a PHEV but without the conventional thermal engine concept. They are solely driven by the electric motor and need to be charged by an external electric source, i.e. the power grid.

•

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are comparable to a BEV but the bulk of energy is saved in the form of hydrogen which is transformed into electricity by means of a fuel cell. The hydrogen supply is provided by a public

Transport (road)

145

e-Mobility

supply grid. A reconversion of electricity into hydrogen inside the car is not envisaged. The FCEV concept will not be further analysed within the framework of this report since the main focus is set on battery HEVs and BEVs. Figure 4-77:

Overview of hybrid and electric drive train concepts

Source: (MIT, 2008), Fraunhofer ISI

Energy saving technologies In a first step, the simple shift from conventional towards electric vehicles represents an energy saving option whose saving potentials are shown in Figure 4-75. However, the fact that the drive concepts mentioned above include an electric motor allows for the following additional final energy saving options to be applied (Pehnt, 2011): •

Recuperation of the kinetic energy that is transformed into electric energy during braking processes. Primarily in urban areas the characteristic stopand-go traffic offers significant energy saving potentials.

•

Intelligent demand management enables a better balancing of ICE and electric drive mode. Since conventional ICEs reach their optimal operation point only at higher load ranges, the starting torque is delivered by the electric motor until battery load reaches a critical level or until a high power demand occurs.

•

Downsizing of the ICE to a lower power range with lower power consumption due to the electric motor assistance implies that the ICE reaches faster

Transport (road)

146

e-Mobility

the optimal operation point. Consequently, the entire hybrid drive concept is optimised with regard to efficiency aspects. However, the extension of a conventional car by an electric motor system results simultaneously in a number of disadvantages which can potentially compensate the energy savings. A main handicap is the increase in vehicle weight which might lead in extra urban areas to an overcompensation of the savings and a net overconsumption. Thus the efficiency gain of HEVs is strongly correlated with the purpose and the usage profile. (Hybrids and EVs are more efficient in low speed and start/stop modes, where ICEs operate in an unfavourable combustion mode.) Calculation methodology The energy saving potential of alternative drive concepts cannot be determined by simply assessing the final energy savings of the respective technologies compared to conventional ICE technology. This would be equivalent to a tank-to-wheel analysis (cf. Figure 4-78) which focuses only on the energy conversion efficiency of the final energy carrier that is stored in the tank/battery (i.e. gasoline, diesel, electricity or hydrogen). Thus, the analysis would result in a clear argument in favour of electric motors which feature efficiencies of roughly 84 % compared to some 30 % of conventional combustion engines or fuel-cell-electric-motor-systems. Instead the whole supply chain, including the processing efficiencies necessary for the production of the respective fuel types (i.e. refineries for the gasoline and diesel production, conventional and renewable power generation units for the provision of electricity, electrolysis or steam reforming for the production of hydrogen) needs to be included in order to carry out a comparable well-to-wheel-analysis. Figure 4-78:

Boundaries of the energy balance

Source: (DGES, 2011)

147

4.3

Technical energy saving potentials of “estimated wedges”

In order to get a holistic overview of the technical energy saving potentials in the different sectors, this section shortly summarizes efficiency technologies and saving potentials that were not addressed in detail within the framework of the factsheets. The results of the classification of the technical potentials deriving from the “estimated wedges” into cost-efficient and non-cost-efficient technologies are not shown in this paragraph for reasons of comprehension and straightforwardness. However, they are implicitly included in the sectoral cost curve-approach that is carried out in section 4.4.1.

Household sector In the households sector, the majority of energy saving potentials has already been addressed in the framework of the respective factsheets. The missing energy consumer is heat generation for sanitary hot water. The share of sanitary hot water heating compared to other building related measures is relatively low, accounting for less than 7 % of the total energy saving potential in the household sector. However, it is more important than the potentials from household appliances or efficient lighting (accounting for 6 % and 5 % respectively). Energy savings in hot water supply can be realised through coupling with the district heating or the local heating system, the further diffusion of energy efficient boilers (condensing heating technologies, electric instantaneous water heaters) or heat pumps. The energy saving potential achievable by energy efficient hot water generation is comparable to the potential of electric appliances, mounting up to 12 Mtoe or 4 % (compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline).

Tertiary sector The factsheet collection already mentioned energy saving technologies for the tertiary sector, resulting from building related improvements (building envelope, heating and cooling systems), as well as from lighting and Green ICT. While the cooling section addressed solely centralised air-conditioning systems, further gains are included in commercial refrigeration and freezing as well as in fans which were separately analysed in ISI (2009a). Another aspect is the improvement of other motor appliances than the ones, used in fans and air-conditioning systems. The

148 entirety of those additional appliances accounts for nearly 40 % of all electricity consumption in the tertiary sector (cf. Figure 4-79).

Figure 4-79:

Shares of tertiary electricity consumption by appliance, EU27, 2004


•

Commercial refrigeration and freezing comprises all kind of cooling appliances used in supermarkets, restaurants, hotels or cafés. Energy efficiency measures include electronically commutated motors (ECM) evaporator fans, addition of a glass door/lid for open cases, improved insulation by using argon instead of air in glass doors, high efficient lighting and increased heat exchanger surface. The total saving potential equals 2 Mtoe in 2030, which is equivalent to a 1 % reduction compared to the baseline (BIOIS, 2007).

•

Ventilation is one of the most energy consuming appliances in the EU, being responsible for about 17 % of all electricity consumption in the tertiary sector. In accordance with Radgen (2007) and ISI (2009a) only considers fans above 125 W in order to exclude residential fans and fans for appliances, such as computers. The fan as main ventilation system can be subdivided in three main components: the motor, the transmission and the fan itself. Consequently, efficiency measures can address all of these components, such as an improved aerodynamic profile of the fan (increased efficiency from 40 % up to 88 %), V-belt transmission or improved induction motors. Hence, total energy savings of up to 3 Mtoe (equals a 2 % reduction compared to the baseline) can be obtained by 2030 (ISI, 2009a), (Radgen, 2007).

149 •

Even though the most significant electric motor appliances were already mentioned (i.e. fans), numerous other motor appliances do exist (e.g. lifts, conveyors, pumps, compressed air systems) and represent a non-negligible saving potential. According to (Bertoldi, 2006), miscellaneous motor appliances with a rated power below 10 kW are responsible for 10 % of all electricity consumption in the tertiary sector. Energy savings can be realised through the use of high efficiency motors (such as IE2 or even better, cf. factsheet about electric drives), variable speed drives, improved demand related control systems (cf. factsheet about e-drive system optimisation), direct coupling of motor and application instead of V-belt and avoidance of oversizing. Since electric motors feature already high efficiencies, the related energy saving potential equals to roughly one Mtoe, which is even less than 1 % compared to the baseline.

Figure 4-80:

Energy saving potentials of the estimated wedges in the tertiary sector, EU27, until 2050


Summarising all the potentials mentioned above, the total energy saving potential through efficient commercial refrigerators and freezers as well as fans and other motor appliances sums up to 6.6 Mtoe in 2030 and to 9.3 Mtoe in 2050. Compared to the 64 Mtoe / 81 Mtoe potential resulting from the calculated wedges, this potential is relatively low, verifying a good representation of the saving potentials through

150 the calculated wedges. Figure 4-80 gives an overview of the temporary development of the saving potentials over the next four decades.

Industry sector Apart from the energy savings potentials identified in the paper and pulp industry and the different cross-cutting technologies mentioned in the respective factsheets (cf. section 4.1.4) additional potentials are included in the process technologies of the iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and non-metallic minerals industry. Following this order, they are shortly explained in this section. Figure 4-81 gives an overview of the individual shares of final energy demand in the different industrial sub-sectors. The iron and steel industry as well as the chemical industry are the main energy consuming sub-sectors in the European industry. Figure 4-81:

Final energy demand in the industry sector in EU27 (historical and forecast)

Source: 1990-2008: (Odyssee, 2011); 2009: average value; 2010-2030: (European Commission, 2010)

In order to get an impression of the significance of the process technologies and their energy saving potentials in the various sectors, Figure 4-82 depicts the share of cross-cutting and process technologies within the sectors. Electricity demand in the non-metallic minerals industry (such as glass, ceramics and cement) results mainly from cross-cutting technologies. The associated saving potentials were already covered in the factsheets whereas the metallic minerals industry is strongly dominated by process specific technologies.

151 Figure 4-82:

Share of cross-cutting technologies in by sector


•

The iron and steel industry is the most energy consuming industry in Europe, amounting for about 20 % of the total industrial final energy demand and more than 5 % of the total European energy consumption (Odyssee, 2011). In this industry branch two types of production processes need to be distinguished. The blast furnace route is manufacturing pig iron and crude steel based on the raw materials iron ore, coke and coal. It is very energy consuming, requiring about 0.29 – 0.36 toe/t of pig iron and 0.43 – 0.48 toe/t of crude steel (IISI, 1998). Alternatively, the electric arc furnace (EAC) is using recycled scrap thereby skipping the energy intensive process of ore reduction and thus requiring only 0.07 – 0.12 toe/t of crude steel. The strip casting process promises the most significant energy savings. Instead of re-heating the steel for final shaping, a continuous near net shape casting is attached to the steel production process, reducing the specific energy demand by 75 % down to 0.002 toe/t of steel. Further improvements can be deduced from heat recovery from steel rolling and the use of top gas from blast furnace (ISI, 2011a).

•

Among non-ferrous metals aluminium production is responsible for more than 50 % of the total energy demand. Primary aluminium production consists of bauxite (a type of aluminium ore) mining, production of alumina (aluminium oxide) from bauxite, extraction of the aluminium through elec-

152 trolysis and final rolling. The production of primary aluminium requires about 1.3 toe/t of aluminium whereas the use of recycled aluminium reduces the energy demand to approximately 5% (IEA, 2007). Energy savings can be triggered through the implementation of so so-called PFPB (Point Feeder Pre-Baked) electrodes and improved operation of the furnaces as well as of the entire process (ISI, 2011a). In the long run the integration of superconductive inductive magnet heating promises savings from up to 50% compared to conventional fuel driven heating and melting processes (Bührer, 2009). •

The chemical industry is the second largest energy consumer of the European manufacturing industry, accounting for 57 Mtoe final energy demand in 2007. According to the PRIMES 2009 forecast, chemical industry is supposed to experience a further increase within the next 20 years, thus even exceeding the iron and steel industry (European Commission, 2010). The chemical industry is characterised by a significant heterogeneity, featuring numerous types of processes applied. Consequently the identification of energy saving technologies comprises a whole range of process related measures. However, they can be traced back to a few fundamental principles, such as the application of more efficient catalysts, increased heat integration, the implementation of more energy efficient separation units, the use of more efficient heat pumps and compressors and the adoption of advanced process automation (ISI, 2011a). The bulk of energy savings in the chemical industry can be tracked in the sectors of refineries mainly linked to partition wall columns (ISI, 2009a).

•

In this study the production of non-metallic minerals comprises glass and cement products, accounting for nearly 14 % of the industrial energy consumption. Cement production is one of the major energy consuming industry branches in the European Union. A mixture of limestone, clay and sand is pre-treated (refining and mixing) for further processing in the furnace where the bulk of energy is needed. The temperature increase implies chemical reactions that transform the raw material into pellets, called clinker. By adding gypsum, cement is attained. The global average energy intensity ranges between 0.07 and 0.11 toe/t of cement (IEA, 2007). Due to the high energy intensity of cement production various energy efficiency savings have already been exploited in the past (such as waste heat recovery). Further savings might be related to the coupling of waste heat recovery and electricity generation (e.g. through the Organic-Rankine-Cycle, ORC) or the

153 substitution of limestone through alternative materials that require less process energy. There are different types of glass products, however the individual processes all include the following steps: selection of raw material (silica sand, soda ash, limestone), batch preparation (weighing and mixing of the raw materials), melting (most energy consuming process step) and refining, conditioning and forming and post-processing (IEA, 2007). Increased efficiency focus mainly on the actual melting process by using oxygen as a substitute for the combustion air in the furnace and waste heat recovery from the exhaust gas, used to preheat to the combustion air. •

Other industry branches, such as machinery construction, textile as well as food, drink and tobacco industry feature additional saving potentials that were not analysed in detail due to their relatively low significance. However, a rough estimation of the saving potential accounts for 12 Mtoe by 2030.

Although originally foreseen, saving potentials deriving from surface technologies are not addressed in an individual analysis since they are partly included in the factsheets dealing with technical improvements in the transport sector as well as in the potentials of other industry branches. The total energy saving potential for all industrial process technologies mounts up to 18 Mtoe in 2030 and up to 40 Mtoe in 2050. This is comparable to a 5 % / 11 % reduction relative to the baseline scenario. Compared to the overall saving potential of calculated and estimated wedges, the estimated industrial wedges represent approximately 21 %.

154 Figure 4-83:

Energy savings through process technologies in the industry sector (only estimated wedges), EU27, until 2050


Transport sector While the factsheets, addressing the transport sector, focus on technical improvements in road transport (i.e. passenger cars and freight transport as well as motorcycles and public road transport) and energy savings through behavioural changes (such as “eco-driving”), the objective of this section consists of the potential determination through modal shift and efficiency improvements in rail transport and aviation. •

Modal shift is defined as covering distances, which would have been travelled anyway, with less energy intensive transport modes. In practice, many existing policies aim at both shifting towards “more sustainable” transport modes and avoiding trips. In the present case only the first aim is targeted, while the latter is already partly addressed in the factsheet dealing with behavioural changes. In urban transport, the bulk of energy savings is gained through a shift from individual motorised transport to public transport and bicycles. Interurban freight transport provides energy saving potentials through shifting from

155 road transport to more efficient rail transport and shipping. Interurban passenger transport promises high energy savings by a shift from aviation and road transport to rail and public transport (such as long distance busses) (IEA, 2010b). The total energy saving potential through modal shift in passenger transport mounts up to 14 Mtoe by 2030, compared to 5 Mtoe resulting from freight transport modal shift. These potentials can be translated by a 4 % and 1 %, reduction compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline (ISI, 2009a). •

Apart from energy savings through a general road-to railway-shift, further savings can be obtained by increased efficiency of rail transport, e.g. through more efficient engines and an improved railway infrastructure permitting enhanced driving route optimisation. However, there is a trade-off between increased speed and more efficient engines and rolling infrastructure that may diminish the available potential. Hence, the total potential in rail transport is limited to 2 Mtoe in 2030, which is just 0.5 % of the baseline energy consumption in the transport sector.

•

A comparatively higher potential is deducible from technical and operational improvements in the aviation sector. Lightweight plane construction, optimised aerodynamics and more efficient propulsion units (such as open rotors or turbofans) decrease the plane’s fuel intensity. Operational measures such as optimised plane load factor, reduced travel weight (e.g. through distance dependent refuelling) and air traffic management (ATM, includes for example flight path optimisation, flight time reduction) increase fuel efficiency. The aviation related energy saving potential mounts up to 19 Mtoe by 2030.

The entirety of energy saving measures in the transport sector covered by the estimated wedge yield some 40 Mtoe by 2030 and 47 Mtoe by 2050 which corresponds to 11 % and 14 % respectively of the total final energy demand in the baseline scenario. Roughly half of the potential is covered by modal shift in passenger and freight transport, whereas nearly the other half is represented by savings in air traffic. Rail transport plays only a minor part. Comparing the saving potential of the estimated wedge with the overall potential in the transport sector, a coverage of roughly 26 % through estimated wedges can be reported.

156 Figure 4-84:

Energy savings through estimated wedges in the transport sector, EU27, until 2050


Energy conversion The assessment of saving potentials in the field of energy conversion and transport differs from the branches analysed before, since efficiency improvements applied in this field are not related to the demand side but rather to the supply side. Hence, the energy efficiency measures shown in the following have a rather representative significance. They are not included in the summation of the energy saving potentials of calculated and estimated wedges.

Electricity generation costs are strongly correlating with the price of the primary energy carrier as well as with the conversion efficiency of the power plant. Thus it is obvious that any new fossil power plant in the EU is built according to best available technology (BAT) standards. This trend is also included in the PRIMES baseline assumptions 43 and depicted in Figure 4-85.

43 The PRIMES projections do also forecast a further diffusion of combined heat and power generation. Large scale deployment of CCS is only expected after 2020.

157 Figure 4-85:

Average power plant efficiency of fossil fuelled power plants, EU27

Source: (Graus, 2009)

Though a certain potential exists to improve the efficiency of existing fossil fuelled power plants, such potential should be assessed in a context of continued stock turnover and decarbonisation of the power sector. Based on current age distribution of power plants, it is expected that by 2030 only 30% of the current stock of fossil power production plants in the EU-27 is still in production; this could resemble around 900 TWh. Retrofitted energy efficiency measures that improve the control of power plants could increase their efficiency with 1 - 2 %. Such measures would save a maximum of 4.4 Mtoe energy inputs to the power generation, assuming 35 % average efficiency for the existing plants. This number is indeed very small compared to the overall economy wide savings potential identified in this study. Moreover, the 4.4 Mtoe of savings could partly be offset by increased use of CCS in the case of new fossil power plants (ECF, 2010b). In summary, we considered no substantial additional energy savings beyond business as usual for the fossil fuelled power generation sector, for both existing and new fossil fuelled power plants.

Energy transmission and distribution Electricity transport involves grid losses due to the fact that the voltage decreases with increasing power line length as a result of the ohmic resistance. Part of the electric energy is transformed into heat and dissipated to the environment. This heat loss correlates with the length of the power line and the squared amperage. Consequently, an increase in voltage results in a decrease in amperage and thus in a lower grid loss. This is also the reason why long-distance power transmission

158 in Europe is realised on a very high tension level of up to 380 kV (compared to the 0.2 kV domestic power connections) (Konstantin, 2009). For the distribution of electricity in load centres, the tension needs to be transformed to a lower level in order to comply with the individual standards of private or industrial consumer. Hence, there are different tension levels for different purposes: •

extra-high tension above 220 kV for long distance power transmission,

•

medium to high tension, ranging between 10 and 110 kV, for the supply of energy intensive industry and the distribution of electricity to regional load centres,

•

low tension of up to 0.4 kV for the supply of households and medium and small enterprises.

Every transformation from one voltage level to another is accompanied by additional energy losses due to a partial transformation of the electric energy into heat. As mentioned before, the transmission and distribution losses are related to the tension level of the power line. Hence, losses in distribution grids are up to 5 times higher than in transmission grids (assuming moderate long distance power lines, as they typically occur in Europe), as can be seen in Table 4-10. Table 4-10: Transmission losses (typical values) published by the Swedish grid operator "Svenska Kraftnät"

Source: (KFB, 2000)

Transmission power line technology is dominated by alternating current (AC) systems. Moreover, most of the lines are overhead lines, which are preferentially installed due to the higher costs of underground cable lines (three to four times higher investment costs) despite significantly lower losses of up to 50 % (Oswald, 2007). However, there is a remarkable shift towards cable lines resulting from a lower impact on the natural scenery and thus a higher public acceptance.

159 According to the IEA, transmission losses in the European Union in 2008 summed up to approximately 6 % of the gross electricity generation (IEA, 2011). An exemplary 380 kV overhead line features a 360 kW loss per km (at a 2000 A current), which is equal to 260 GWh loss for a 60 km line during one year (NStK, 2007). Generally speaking, losses in AC lines directly correlate with the length of a line, i.e. the longer it is the lower is the output at the end of the line. Hence, there is an important need for efficiency improvements which can potentially be realised by the following efficiency technologies (NStK, 2007), (ABB, 2007), (Greenpeace, 2010b): •

Gas-insulated transmission lines (GIL) are similar to a pipeline, composed of an AC conducting medium and a surrounding gas mixture as insulation medium (80 % nitrogen, 20 % SF6). Every system consists of single units of three pipelines (approx. 50 cm diameter) of a length between 11 and 14 m that are weld together. The transmission loss is up to 65 % lower than in over head AC lines (roughly 130 kW per kilometre) while the investment costs are about seven times higher. This type of power line was invented by SIEMENS and it is already commercially available.

•

High voltage direct current (HVDC) systems have about 50 % lower losses than AC lines, which is equal to 2 - 3 % of the transmitted power – independently from the line length. However, power plants usually generate alternating current (AC). Thus a rectifier needs to transform the electricity into DC and after transmission an inverter has to transform it back to AC, which implies additional energy losses. Hence, HVDC lines are only suitable for long distances (more than 600 km) where the transformer losses are overcompensated by the gains through higher transmission efficiency, or for submarine cables of more than 30 km length, connecting two continents or off-shore wind parks with the power grid. Since European power plants are located close to the load centres, there is no significant potential for this technology yet. Only in a long term view, this technology might become more important in view of a pan-European super grid, connecting generation units in Northern Africa, Turkey or the Scandinavian countries directly to the Central European grid.

•

But the Swiss company ABB has developed a new type of HVDC lines, called HVDC light which is also applicable for short distances. These lines are underground or submarine cable lines that suitable for distance of more than 150 km. Up to now the voltage level is relatively low, thus further R&D is necessary in order to increase the transmission capacity and the energy savings which are currently in the order of magnitude of 5 %.

160 •

High-temperature superconducting cables (HTS) have the ability to conduct electricity with near-zero-resistance, thus featuring losses of only half a percent of the transmitted power. Since they can only operate below a characteristic temperature (near liquid nitrogen temperature) further R&D is necessary in order to reduce the energy demand for cooling. Moreover they can carry three to five time the power of conventional cables.

Since the transmission and distribution losses are not only linked to the amount of power transmitted but also on the future expansion and design of the European electricity grid, it is extremely difficult to estimate the overall saving potential related to avoided grid losses. Only a detailed and holistic scenario analysis can deliver electricity generation capacity figures, the type of energy source used (renewable or conventional energy sources), the individual geographical location of supply and load centres and the resulting grid structure. Such a complex analysis cannot be carried out in the framework of this study 44. Hence, only a rough estimation of how much of today’s energy losses could potentially be avoided is delivered. Summarizing the findings of the technology overview leads to the conclusion that roughly half of the losses currently occurring in AC lines could be halved by the integration of new AC and DC distribution and transmission technologies. Based on the IEA statistics that in 2008 the electricity losses mounted up to 206 TWh (or 6 % of the gross production), the energy saving potential thus accounts for some 100 TWh or 9 Mtoe of final energy demand. A detailed timeline of the availability of the potential cannot be developed due to lacking data regarding grid refurbishment cycles. Due to the fact that the energy savings outlined earlier in the factsheet and in the estimated wedges section are compared to the net final energy demand (not including self consumption of energy conversion units and transmission losses), the saving potentials from reduced grid losses are not comprised in the summation carried out within the next sections.

44 A complete analysis was carried out by the German company Energynautics, for example. After the initial of an entire energy supply scenario, commissioned by Greenpeace, the necessary grid infrastructure and the subsequent grid losses were estimated (Energynautics, 2011). The result was a reduction of grid losses from 6 % in 2008 to 5 % in 2030 and 2050, respectively despite a significant grid extension due to a 100 % RES power supply.

161

4.4

Overview of technical and economic energy saving and emission reduction potentials

This section aims on merging the information of the two previous chapters on a higher aggregated level. In 4.4.1 the data from calculated and estimated wedges is summarized on sectoral level, pointing out the most promising efficiency measures with regard to the size of the potential, its cost-effectiveness and their contribution to primary energy demand reduction and GHG emission mitigation. In 4.4.2, we step one aggregation level further up, bringing together the national sectoral potential results for a number of specific countries. The overall assembly of the sectoral potentials on the EU27 level is described in chapter 5.

4.4.1

EU-wide saving potentials on sectoral level

Based on the in-depth analysis of the calculated and estimated wedges, an evaluation of the identified saving potentials shall be drawn on a sectoral level. Until 2030, a detailed technology specific depiction allows identifying the main energy saving measures, summarizing the data from the factsheets as well as from section 4.3 (all based on (ISI, 2009a)). For the time horizon between 2030 and 2050, a further general outlook on the energy saving potentials is given. Due to increasing uncertainty in the long term view, the displayed potentials can hardly be allocated to specific technologies. However the share of the technology potentials in the year 2030 is kept constant over the following 20 years in order to get a rough idea about the significance of the single technologies. The potential data for the time between 2030 and 2050 is based on the ADAM report (ISI, 2009c). For comparison purposes, the PRIMES 2009 baseline was extrapolated for the time beyond 2030, using the scaled development of the ADAM reference scenario. This approach enables the consideration of the economic crisis. Even though the results of cost-benefit-analysis for measures from the estimated wedges group were not reported in detail in section 4.3, they are now included in the overall sectoral cost curves in order to give a complete overview.

Household sector As shown Figure 4-86, adding up all final energy saving potentials leads to a 61 % decrease by 2030 compared to the PRIMES baseline, lowering the final energy demand to 120 Mtoe. Until 2050, the slight decrease of FED in the baseline sce-

162 nario continues, reaching 290 Mtoe due to autonomous diffusion of efficiency technologies and slightly declining population numbers (cf. (ISI, 2009b)). The main energy savings are achievable through further efficiency improvements in the building shell as well as in heating systems and appliances. Moreover the specific energy demand of appliances is reduced to a minimum level. Thus, the energy demand declines to 82 Mtoe by 2050. This is comparable to a 71 % final energy demand reduction, equal to 207 Mtoe. However, there is a clear trend break in the year 2030. On the one hand side, this break can be explained with an increased share of efficient and refurbished dwellings featuring a reduced saving potential. On the other hand side it needs to be pointed out that given the fact that the potential trajectory is based on two different studies (see also the methodology section 4.1), the scenario-specific trends do not necessarily fully match. Presuming an entirely consistent scenario approach would lead to a distinct s-shaped development of the potential curve that is gradually approaching a certain saturation level.

Figure 4-86:

Total final energy saving potentials in the EU27 until 2050 in the household sector


Regarding the time-scale of the potential development, the most significant cuts can be obtained within the next two decades (2007-2030: -187 Mtoe / -57 % final

163 energy decrease), while in the long run it is more difficult to exploit further saving potentials (2030-2050: -39 Mtoe or -14 % relative to the pre-crisis value of 2007). Figure 4-87:

Cost curve for the household sector, EU27


Figure 4-87 illustrates very well, that the bulk of energy related cost reductions derives from efficiency improvements in the buildings sector (i.e. building shell and heating system, that contain the measures mentioned earlier in the fact sheets which results in more than three blocks of every option within the cost curve). Among the economic potentials, electric appliances and lighting are clearly the most attractive energy saving option regarding the specific cost reduction per unit of energy saved. However, their contribution to the overall cost benefit is extremely small compared to the benefits through building related measures: €4 billion versus €26 billion by 2020. The net benefits that take into account additional financial efforts for the realisation of the immature fruits (partially building related measures as well as BAT electric appliances) account for €25 billion in 2020 and more than €120 billion by 2050. The extraordinarily high cost reduction by 2050 is basically triggered by increasing fuel prices that make the additional investments worthwhile. Based on these results it is obvious that the majority of the potentials can be activated through measures that focus on non-financial barriers. Only one fifth of the overall potential in 2020 requires additional financial aids to lift the saving options on a cost-effective level.

164 Figure 4-88:

Primary energy savings in the household sector compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


The primary energy related analysis of the household sector (see Figure 4-88) permits four main conclusions: First, the overall primary energy demand will further increase up to 2020 before entering a reverse trend and dropping to a level of 451 Mtoe by 2050, if no additional measures are undertaken. Second, the primary energy demand can be reduced by up to 28 % until 2050 considering a more efficient electricity generation mix (in this case considering 80 % instead of 54 % conversion efficiency; see also section 4.1.4). Moreover, the overall primary energy saving potential through final energy related efficiency measures mounts up to 230 Mtoe by 2050, reducing the remaining demand to 94 Mtoe. In comparison with the PRIMES 2009 baseline, the savings equal 51 %. With regard to the “Ambitious RES” baseline, the savings represent even 71 % of the primary energy demand in 2050. At last, the bulk of the savings originates from energy saving options related to buildings (i.e. to the building envelope and the heating system). Despite the comparatively low electrification of this sector, which makes the potential becoming less important than from a final energy point of view, buildings represent roughly 80 % of the household related primary energy savings.

165 Figure 4-89:

GHG emission reduction from the household sector compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


The conclusions for the primary energy demand count likewise for the GHG emission reduction potential. However, under the PRIMES 2009 baseline, GHG emissions experience an important decline of 42 % between 2010 and 2050 due to the increasing decarbonisation of the power sector and the advancing electrification of the heating sector. Given the fact that the increasing diffusion of heat pumps triggers an increase in electricity demand, the household sector is additionally benefitting from the decarbonisation of the power generation sector. Hence, GHG emissions can potentially be reduced by 21 % in 2050 (see the “conversion savings” slice in Figure 4-89). Final energy related efficiency measures account for overall emission reductions of up to 371 Mt CO2-eq in 2030. This value is declining afterwards to 259 Mt CO2eq in 2050 due to the fact that the increasing decarbonisation of the power sector moderates the actual GHG reduction effect. Hence, GHG emissions can potentially drop to a level of 128 Mt CO2-eq by 2050. The contributions from the buildings sector to the overall GHG emission reduction potential increase from 83 % in 2020 (193 Mt CO2-eq) to 92 % in 2050 (237 Mt CO2-eq).

166

Tertiary sector The technical final energy saving potentials in the tertiary sector based on the calculated wedges are completed by savings from fans, commercial refrigeration and freezing as well as other motor appliances that account for some additional 6 Mtoe in 2030. This corresponds to almost 10 % of the total saving potential of 71 Mtoe, which is reducing the final energy demand by 45 % to 86 Mtoe by 2030. Comparable to the residential sector, efficient heating and insulation systems are responsible for the bulk of the overall savings. Figure 4-90:

Total final energy saving potentials in the EU27 until 2050 in the tertiary sector


In the long run the trend of rising energy demand in the baseline scenario reverses, resulting in a FED of 149 Mtoe in 2050 which is close to the current level. The energy saving trend beyond 2030 is supposed to continue, even though at a lower rate. While the average annual saving rate between 2007 and 2030 amounts to 3.9 % (based on the 2007 value), it declines to 1.9 % for the period between 2030 and 2050. Final energy demand beyond 2030 can only be reduced by additional 28 Mtoe, down to 59 Mtoe by 2050. This can be translated to a 61 % reduction compared to the PRIMES baseline as well as to the 2007 level.

167 Figure 4-91:

Cost curve for the tertiary sector, EU27


Regarding the cost-effectiveness of the potentials identified, three points need to be raised. By 2020, already 85 % (about 40 Mtoe) of the overall technical potential is economic. Electric appliances and lighting are basically entirely economic, representing about one quarter of the cost-effective potential. The remaining share is deduced from building related measures whereof two fifth represent low-hanging fruits that require low policy effort to overcome the barriers and that feature high discount rates for investments. However, the total financial benefit of efficiency measures in electric appliances and in buildings is equal and mounts up to about €10 billion in each case. The non-economic potentials become cost-effective only by 2040 if no financial incentives are undertaken beforehand. They mainly consist of high-technology efficiency measures in the building shell and the heating system. By 2050, the entirety of all potentials triggers net cost reductions of more than €70 billion under the preconditions explained earlier.

168 Figure 4-92:

Primary energy savings from the tertiary sector compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


In terms of primary energy savings, the shift towards a high efficient power sector reduces tertiary primary energy demand by more than one third in 2050 (cf. Figure 4-92). This effect occurs at a much stronger intensity than in any of the other sectors which is mainly based on the fact that the final energy demand is dominated by electricity as the main energy carrier. Moreover, the growing diffusion of heat pumps is driving a further increase of the electricity demand. Nearly the same amount of savings (32 % or 102 Mtoe) is delivered by the actual energy efficiency measures, compared to the PRIMES baseline. In relation to the “Ambitious RES” baseline (PRIMES baseline less the conversion savings), primary energy demand can be reduced by 50 % until 2050. The remaining primary energy demand can consequently be reduced to 103 Mtoe by 2050. Half of the energy saving potential is based on the improved insulation of existing buildings and the construction of new, highly efficient buildings. Some additional 20 % are added through the improvement of energy efficient heating and cooling technologies. The remaining share represents mainly electricity driven appliances. Their primary energy saving potential is declining after 2030 since the improving conversion efficiency of the power sector over-compensates the growing electricity saving potential.

169 Figure 4-93:

GHG emission reduction from the tertiary sector compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


With regard to GHG emissions the effect of the transformation towards a lowcarbon, high-efficient power sector gains additionally in importance. Already under the PRIMES 2009 baseline, emissions are strongly declining by 46 % between 2010 and 2050 as a result of the decarbonisation of the power sector. By 2050, some 36 % of the remaining energy related GHG emissions from the tertiary sector can potentially be reduced through conversion savings and even lower specific emissions per unit of electricity than under the PRIMES baseline. Compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline GHG emissions, some extra 32 % can be saved through final energy related efficiency measures. In absolute terms, the GHG emission reduction potential culminates in 2030 at 165 Mt CO2-eq, before declining to 125 Mt CO2-eq by 2050. Hence, GHG emissions can potentially be reduced to a level of 105 Mt CO2-eq in the long-run. While in 2020, building related efficiency measures cover only 77 % of the overall saving potential, their share exceeds 95 % by 2050.

Industry sector The estimated wedges, completing the full range of final energy savings in the industry sector, comprise iron and steel industry, refineries, non-ferrous metal indus-

170 try, cement, chemicals and glass industry as well as other minor energy intensive branches. Their total energy savings sum up to 18 Mtoe by 2030. This is roughly one third of the potential covered by the calculated wedges, accounting in their entirety for an 88 Mtoe reduction by 2030. The entire savings reach 26 % reduction compared to the PRIMES baseline. Most of the short-term energy savings can be exploited by improved holistic optimisation of electric motor driven systems and energy efficient heat generation. In the long run, further energy savings can compensate for the increasing baseline energy demand and promise even higher demand reductions. Provided a full implementation of the potentials by 2050, final energy demand would reach the 176 Mtoe level, verifying a 52 % reduction compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline. Figure 4-94:

Total final energy saving potentials in the EU27 until 2050 in the industry sector


Even though efficient steam and hot water generation technologies (i.e. efficiency improvement of heat generation units, further CHP diffusion and highly efficient industrial space heating) represent the bulk of the technical final energy saving potential, their contribution to the economic savings is quite smaller and strongly depends on the assumptions made regarding the fuel mix of the generation capacities displaced by CHP (see also the respective fact sheet, 4.2.7).

171 Instead, electric drive based system optimisation measures trigger an immediate cost reduction (apart from regular maintenance that causes additional labour costs), nearly doubling the benefits deriving from process technologies (nearly €14 vs. 7€ billion). Adding up all costs and benefits leads to a net cost reduction of €25 billion by 2020 and more than €100 billion by 2050. Excluding the cost benefits from CHP that are highly sensitive regarding the price and fuel mix assumptions, reduces the net-benefits down to €21 and €90 billion. Figure 4-95:

Cost curve for the industrial sector, EU27


Figure 4-96 shows the primary energy demand in the industry sector. If no measures are undertaken, PRIMES 2009 forecasts a further increase of energy demand up to 592 Mtoe by 2050. Primary energy savings in the industry sector are two-part. By 2050, 29 % of the overall PRIMES 2009 baseline demand can be reduced through efficiency improvements in the power sector. Final energy related efficiency technologies are able to deliver an additional 36 % reduction compared to the PRIMES baseline. This corresponds to 215 Mtoe. While in the short-run more than one third of the savings are delivered through e-drive system optimisation measures, this share declines subsequently. This is due to the fact that the increasing power generation efficiency is partly compensating the significance of electricity saving measures. Hence, efficiency technologies for steam and hot water generation gain in importance, representing nearly half of the primary energy saving potential by 2050.

172 Figure 4-96:

Primary energy savings from the industry sector compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


Figure 4-97 depicts the reduction of GHG emissions through efficiency improvements in the power sector (cf. the “conversion savings” slice) and final energy related efficiency technologies compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand. It is obvious that even in the PRIMES baseline scenario GHG emission reductions will occur to a level of 767 Mt CO2-eq by 2050. Efficiency improvements in power generation support a decline in GHG emissions by 20 % to a level of 610 Mt CO2eq. The actual industry related efficiency technologies drive a further decrease of GHG emissions by additional 49 % compared to the overall baseline, limiting the emissions to 233 Mt CO2-eq. An increasing share of the emission reduction potential is based on efficiency technologies in steam and hot water generation as well as other process-specific efficiency technologies that trigger savings of energy carriers other than electricity. This is due to the fact that electricity savings feature a decreasing emission reduction effect because of efficiency improvement and decarbonisation in the power sector.

173 Figure 4-97:

GHG emission reduction from the industry sector compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


Transport sector The transport sector is supposed to feature net final energy savings beyond 2020 in the baseline scenario due to the predominating autonomous shift towards more efficient transport technologies. Faster reduction of final energy demand can be mainly attained by prompting technical improvements in passenger as well as goods and freight transport, accounting for nearly 50 % of the overall saving potential (excluding savings through e-Mobility) in 2030. Behavioural changes have quite larger impacts in the road freight transport (about 17 % of the overall potential) than in the passenger transport (about 7 %). Modal shift as well as aviation and rail transport that were not further analysed in the factsheets account for 13 %, 12 % and 1 % respectively of all savings by 2030. Due to the introduction of new drive technologies such as electric cars, hydrogen fuelled fuel cell cars or cars based on biofuels, a further decrease in final energy demand is supposed to occur. As pictured in Figure 4-98 e-Mobility can trigger additional savings of up to 4 Mtoe in 2030 and 36 Mtoe in 2050 (in the Ambitious scenario). Nevertheless, this potential is neither included in the overall potential summation nor in the following determination of primary energy demand and GHG

174 emission reduction since cuts in final energy demand by means of e-Mobility limit simultaneously the saving potential of the other transport-related efficiency measures mentioned beforehand. Consequently, the total final energy saving potential (excluding e-Mobility) by 2030 sums up to 156 Mtoe, compared to 379 Mtoe in the baseline development, resulting in a 41 % demand reduction. By 2050, the potential grows up to 181 Mtoe, reducing the PRIMES 2009 baseline demand by 53 %.

Figure 4-98:

Total final energy saving potential in the EU27 until 2050 in the transport sector


Figure 4-99 depicts the cost curve for efficiency measures in the transport sector. By 2020, nearly 80 % of the technical potential identified is economic. In the upcoming decades, strong shifts within the cost curve order can be witnessed due to differently developing cost reductions among the various drive concepts. Efficiency improvements for motorcycles that solely run on gasoline (most expensive fuel in the transport sector) experience much higher cost reductions than measures in the freight transport or even aviation, due to lower fuel prices (as a consequence of lower tax rates). Consequently, by 2050, a rearrangement of the cost curve would be necessary that shows, that energy saving options for motorcy-

175 cles and passenger cars experience a stronger increase in the specific cost reduction per unit of energy saved. On the overall cost saving level, this order shift has no direct effect, since the potentials of the other driving options are growing faster. By 2050, the net cost savings have more than tripled from €62 billion in 2020 up to €190 billion.

Figure 4-99:

Cost curve for the transport sector, EU27


In compliance with the final energy demand projections, primary energy demand is likewise supposed to decline beyond 2020 according to the PRIMES 2009 baseline (see Figure 4-100). The transport sector features the particularity that the contribution of efficiency improvements in the power generation sector has only a marginal impact on the overall primary energy demand (4 % by 2050). This can be explained with the low share of electricity as final energy carrier in the transport sector 45. The saving potential through final energy related efficiency measures mounts up to 188 Mtoe by 2050. Compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, energy demand can be potentially reduced to a level of 167 Mtoe or 49 %. Nearly half of the saving potential is related to technical improvements in road transport whereas the remaining half is fairly split into savings from behavioural

45 In the present analysis the focus is set on conventional drive concepts. Alternative car drive concepts using other energy carriers such as electricity are excluded in this analysis and addressed separately (see 4.2.12 and Annex IV).

176 changes and various other measures (such as modal-shift or efficiency improvements in aviation and rail transport). Figure 4-100: Primary energy savings from the transport sector compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


Based on the PRIMES 2009 primary energy demand the calculation of the GHG emissions was carried out. A further calibration of the results by means of an average GHG emission indicator from the PRIMES baseline gave the GHG emission projection as shown in Figure 4-101. In terms of GHG emission reductions, the contribution from a shift to a highefficiency power sector is as marginal as it is for the primary energy demand reduction. Hence, the overall decreasing trend from the PRIMES baseline (of 19 % between 2010 and 2050) is not significantly changed. Final energy related efficiency measures in the transport sector lead to GHG emission reductions of 562 Mt CO2-eq or 57 % by 2050 compared to the overall baseline. Half of this potential is represented by technical improvements in the road transport. Realising the entire energy saving potential results in a limitation of GHG emissions at a level of 404 Mt CO2-eq.

177 Figure 4-101: GHG emission reduction from the transport sector compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


4.4.2

Overview of potentials on national levels

This section examines the potentials in a few selected countries, which are: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. These countries do not only play a prominent role in the context of international climate and energy policy negotiations, but there are also responsible for more than 50 % of the overall final energy demand of the European Union (cf. Figure 4-102).

178 Figure 4-102: Final energy demand by country, EU27, 2007


Figure 4-103 shows the relative GDP development in the five countries compared to the 1990 level, whereas Figure 4-104 depicts the historical evolution of the final energy demand between 1990 and 2008. Against one’s expectations, Poland features only a slight increase of 6 % in final energy demand despite the doubling of GDP. At the same time, Spain, Italy and France experience strong increases in energy demand, ranging from 15 % (France) to 66 % (Spain), while Germany reports a net decline of 4 % in 2008 compared to the base year.

179 Figure 4-103: Relative GDP development compared to 1990 for selected countries, 1990-2008


Figure 4-104: Final energy demand in specific countries, 1990 – 2008

Final energy demand 250 200

Poland

150

Spain

100

Italy

50 0


France Germany

180 Figure 4-105: Energy intensity in absolute values and relative to 1990

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

Source: (Odyssee, 2011), own calculations

In the following, the energy saving potentials 46 of all the five countries are shortly summarized, in the order of decreasing energy demand.

Germany Germany is the most populous country in and an important industrial location of the European Union, responsible for approximately one quarter of all the European industrial value added. Hence, it is also the most energy consuming country in the EU, covering about 18 % of the total FED. Over the past 20 years the German final energy demand was roughly stagnating at a level between 217 and 225 Mtoe per year, featuring a slight demand shift from industry and tertiary (including agriculture) towards households and transport. In 2008, households, industry and transport represented likewise 28 % of the final energy demand, compared to 15 % in the tertiary sector. The most energy consuming industrial branches are the steel industry (2008: 23 % of all industrial energy demand), the chemical industry (18 %) as well as the machinery construction and the paper and pulp industry with equal shares of 9 %.

46 In order to ensure the representation of the total energy demand, sectors not mentioned in detail (e.g. agriculture) are included in the tertiary figures.

181 Comparable to the European level, the household sector features the highest technical energy saving potential. The PRIMES 2009 baseline forecasts a further increase of FED up to 69 Mtoe, which is later on dropping on today’s level of about 61 Mtoe. The exploitation of the energy saving potentials decreases the FED by 69 % until 2030 compared to the 2007 level, down to 17 Mtoe, through improved housing insulation and energy efficient heating and cooling systems. The transport sector promises halving of today’s energy demand, down to 30 Mtoe, which corresponds to a 47 % reduction of energy demand by 2030 compared to the baseline, due to an autonomous demand decrease in the PRIMES projection. The main drivers are on the one hand improvements in passenger transport, principally through technical but also through behavioural measures as well as modal shift, accounting for about 43 % of all savings. On the other hand, some additional 40 % result equally from technical improvements and behavioural changes in goods transport; modal shift plays only a minor role. The remaining share is predominantly covered through improvements in the air traffic branch, accounting for 11 % of the total saving potential. The industry sector reports an energy saving potential of 12 Mtoe, which leads to a relatively low FED reduction of only 23% compared to the baseline development, limiting FED at 40 Mtoe in 2030. As a result of an autonomous decrease in the PRIMES forecast from 62 Mtoe in 2008 to 53 Mtoe in 2030, the overall demand decrease compared to today’s level mounts up to 34 %. Four main technology groups can be identified, primarily accounting for the 12 Mtoe saving potential: energy efficient cross-cutting technologies for heat generation (4.9 Mtoe, through efficiency improvements and further diffusion of CHP), e-drive system optimisation in cross-cutting electric appliances (3.8 Mtoe, mainly through variable speed drive and demand related control systems) and energy efficient process technologies in the iron and steel industry (1 Mtoe, largely through thin slap or strip casting technology, cf. the respective factsheet). The remaining amount of savings can be realised through efficient lighting and efficient process technologies in the various industry branches Energy savings in the tertiary sector are comparably high as in the industry sector, about 13 Mtoe, but the relative saving is significantly higher, mounting up to a 43 % decrease by 2030 compared to the PRIMES baseline. Comparable to the household sector, the bulk of savings is linked to building related energy consumption: 30 percentage points can be delivered through refurbishment and efficient heating in existing buildings, further 5 percentage points result from energy efficient new buildings. The remaining share is delivered equally by efficient electric appliances and efficient lighting.

182 The aggregated potentials can trigger energy savings of 48 % by 2030 compared to the PRIMES baseline (199 Mtoe in 2030). Relative to today’s level, final energy demand would be reduced by even 52 %, reaching 104 Mtoe by 2030.

Figure 4-106: Technical energy saving potentials in Germany, by sector


France France is sharing the second place of the most energy consuming countries within the European Union together with the United Kingdom, accounting for 157 Mtoe in 2008, which equals to 13 % of the overall European FED. Approximately one third of all final energy is used in the transport sector, which is followed by the household sector (27 %), the industry (24 %) and the tertiary sector at last (17 %). However, it is worth noting that there is a clear shift from industry towards the tertiary sector. Compared to 1990, final energy demand in the tertiary sector increased by nearly 50 %, while the industry sector experienced a slight decrease (cf. Figure 4-107). The French industry energy demand is dominated by the chemical industry (9 Mtoe), iron and steel industry (6 Mtoe), paper and printing industry (4 Mtoe) and machinery construction (3 Mtoe). The PRIMES 2009 baseline forecasts a slight further increase of the overall FED up to 160 Mtoe by 2020, followed by a decline back to today’s level of 156 Mtoe.

183 Figure 4-107: Sectoral final energy demand evolution compared to 1990, France


As in other countries, the household sector drives the strongest absolute energy demand reductions of 66 % compared to the baseline, limiting it to 15 Mtoe by 2030. 26 Mtoe of the 30 Mtoe saving potential result from building and heating related efficiency improvements, subdivided in 19 Mtoe from existing dwellings and 7 Mtoe from new dwellings. The remaining 4 Mtoe can be realised through efficient sanitary hot water heating (1.5 Mtoe) and efficient electric appliances (mainly lighting, refrigerators and dryers). The transport sector features energy savings of 20 Mtoe over the two coming decades, lowering the energy demand by 47 % compared to the baseline and by 53 % compared to the 2008 level of 50 Mtoe. Almost three quarter of the savings are covered through behavioural changes and technical improvements in the goods transport as well as technical improvements in the passenger traffic (23 % each). Modal shift in passenger and goods transport as well as behavioural changes in passenger transport play a minor role, representing 6 % each of the total saving potential in the transport sector. The remaining gap of 14 % is closed by efficiency improvements in air traffic (10 %) and other means, such as motorcycles, public transport and rail. A FED reduction by one fifth or 8.6 Mtoe is achievable through efficiency improvements in the French industry sector, compared to the PRIMES baseline. 6.5 Mtoe result from efficiency improvements in cross-cutting technologies. They comprise efficient heat generation technologies as well as e-drive system optimisation measures (such as variable speed drive, demand related control systems or avoidance of oversizing). Process technologies play a minor role (about 2.1 Mtoe).

184 Here, the highest savings are related to iron and steel as well as chemical industry and refineries. Despite the lower total final energy demand compared to the industry sector, the tertiary sector promises higher energy savings of 10 Mtoe by 2030. In comparison to the baseline value of 30 Mtoe in 2030, that can be translated by a 34% demand reduction. 23 percentage points originate again from energy efficient building envelope as well as heating and cooling system of existing and new dwellings. Some additional percentage points can be gained through efficiency improvements in office lighting, fans and commercial refrigeration (4, 2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively). Adding all sectoral energy saving potentials leads to a total demand reduction of 45 % compared to the baseline by 2030, which equals to a residual FED of 86 Mtoe instead of 156 Mtoe in the PRIMES forecast. Figure 4-108: Technical energy saving potentials in France, by sector


Italy Italy reported a final energy demand of 130 Mtoe in 2008, which corresponds to a 20 % rise compared to the 1990 level. Compared to the total final energy demand of the European Union, Italy accounts for a share of 11 %. It is the fourth most important energy consumer of whole Europe and the biggest one of Southern Europe (including Spain and Greece, excluding Turkey). The strong increase in FED over the past years is largely due to a strong increase in the tertiary and the transport sector. The latter is responsible for one third of

185 all Italian energy demand, directly followed by the industry sector, accounting for roughly 30 %. Contrarily to the Western European countries mentioned above, final energy demand of households plays a less significant role (20 % of the overall FED) due to climate conditions and a limited need for heating. The tertiary sector experienced nearly a doubling of energy demand since 1990, resulting in a 17 % share in 2008 (cf. Figure 4-109). Due to the fact that the gross value added of Italy rised at the same scale as the energy demand, stagnating energy intensity can be reasoned. For the coming two decades, the PRIMES baseline considers a fast return to the pre-crisis level of 131 Mtoe and a further increase of 11 % up to 145 Mtoe in 2030. Figure 4-109: Sectoral final energy demand evolution compared to 1990, Italy


In the household sector, a further increase in energy demand up to 36 Mtoe is assumed in the PRIMES baseline, which is mainly related to rising cooling demand. Thus the energy saving potential of 16 Mtoe by 2030, leads to a 44 % reduction compared to the baseline and to a 20 % reduction compared to the 2008 level (26 Mtoe). Two thirds of the saving potential (10.6 Mtoe) result from efficiency improvements in existing buildings (comprising insulation, heating systems). Another 12 % are linked to the construction of energy efficient new buildings and the installation of efficient sanitary hot water supply, respectively. The remaining share arises from efficiency improvements in electric appliances, mainly lighting, TVs, refrigerators and desktops. Assuming no exploitation of saving potentials, the transport sector is supposed to get back to the 2007 level of 45 Mtoe by 2019 (2009 post-crisis level: 43 Mtoe) and

186 to further increase up to 46 Mtoe by 2025, stagnating at this level until 2030, according to the PRIMES baseline. On the contrary, the realisation of the saving potential of 15 Mtoe would reduce the FED by 32 % to 31 Mtoe by 2030. 9 Mtoe are resulting from savings in passenger transport (6 Mtoe from technical improvements and 1.5 Mtoe from modal shift and behavioural changes respectively), 1.6 Mtoe from technical improvements and behavioural changes in goods transport, respectively. Efficiency improvements in air traffic account for 1.7 Mtoe and in motorcycles for 0.5 Mtoe. The latter is a singularity of the Italian transport sector compared to other European countries. The industry sector is supposed to recover rather fast from the economic crisis, according to PRIMES. Up to 2030, a continued energy demand growth will lead to 45 Mtoe. The exploitation of the technical saving potential of nearly 9 Mtoe would diminish the 2030 FED by 19 %. Slightly more than one third of all savings are related to efficient heat generation. Another third results from efficient electric cross-cutting technologies (particularly e-drive system optimisation measures, accounting for 3 Mtoe) and the last quarter arises from process specific technologies, essentially from refineries and the iron and steel industry. According to PRIMES, the FED of the tertiary sector will further increase, even though the growth rate will be lower than before the economic crisis. The relative saving potential in the tertiary sector is comparable to the transport sector, leading to a 32 % FED decrease in comparison with the baseline by 2030. In absolute figures, the actual saving potential is quite smaller, accounting for 6 Mtoe. 4.4 Mtoe result from building related efficiency measures (building envelope, heating, cooling) of existing (3.9 Mtoe) and new dwellings (0.5 Mtoe). The remaining share is on the one hand linked to efficiency improvements in air-conditioning, fans and commercial refrigeration and on the other hand to office lighting. The overall saving potential of Italy sums up to 46 Mtoe by 2030, which translates to a 31 % reduction compared to the baseline, reducing the FED from 146 Mtoe to 100 Mtoe. The household as well as the transport sector represent one third each, while the remaining third is covered by industry and tertiary sector. Compared to the pre-crises level of 2007 (131 Mtoe), the reduced FED will be 24 % lower.

187 Figure 4-110: Technical energy saving potentials in Italy, by sector


Spain Spain has experienced one of the strongest final energy demand increases among all European countries of nearly 75 % between 1990 and 2007 (in the same range as Ireland and Cyprus) (Eurostat, 2011). This growth was mainly driven by a doubling of FED in the tertiary sector and an 80 % increase in the households and transport sector, in contrast to 50 % in the industry. The increase in FED went along with a strong economic growth of almost 70 % before the entering of the crisis (cf. Figure 4-103). The energy intensity, which is an indicator for the energy demand per unit of value added, did not experience an essential efficiency improvement. Figure 4-105 depicts the energy intensity of all the five countries. As can be clearly seen, the relative energy intensity even increased, indicating a slight increase up to 12 % above the 1990 level. In absolute figures, the intensity ranged between 0.121 and 0.135 toe/€2000, which is clearly above the level of Italy, France and Germany (0.103, 0.096 and 0.095 toe/€2000 respectively in 2008). In 2007, the total FED mounted up to 102 Mtoe, consisting of 40 % related to the transport sector, 30 % to the industry, 17 % to households and 13 % to the tertiary sector (cf. Figure 4-111). For the next two decades, PRIMES forecasts a further FED growth up to 124 Mtoe by 2030, mainly in the industry and transport sector.

188 Figure 4-111: Sectoral final energy demand in Spain, 1990 - 2008


The Spanish household sector experienced a slight drop in FED due to the economic crisis. According to PRIMES, the 2007 level of 17 Mtoe will be reached by 2013 again and a slight further increase up to 18 Mtoe by 2020 is assumed, where FED will sort of stagnate for the following 10 years. Efficiency measures promise a FED reduction by two third compared to the baseline in 2030. Hence, energy demand can be reduced from 18 Mtoe down to 6 Mtoe. 85 % of all savings, i.e. 10 Mtoe, result from building related efficiency improvements. It is a Spanish phenomenon that the bulk of savings is related to the construction of new efficient buildings (5.3 Mtoe), whereas the refurbishment and efficient heating systems lead only to 3.3 Mtoe. Efficient sanitary hot water supply, efficient lighting and efficient electric appliances (particularly TVs) account for 1 Mtoe each. The transport sector, as the most energy consuming sector, is supposed to further increase from currently 40 Mtoe up to 48 Mtoe by 2030, if no efficiency measures are realised. However, the energy saving potential is very important, promising nearly a halving of the baseline FED by 2030, reducing the demand by 24 Mtoe. 20 Mtoe of savings are equally delivered by improvements in the goods and passenger transport. While for goods transport, technical improvements and behavioural changes account likewise for a 4.5 Mtoe reduction, savings in passenger transport are dominated by technical improvements (6.6 Mtoe) and the remaining 3.5 Mtoe are similarly realised through behavioural changes and modal-shift. Additional savings are related to air traffic (2.5 Mtoe) and other transport means (motorcycles, public road and rail), accounting for 1 Mtoe. As mentioned before, the FED of the Spanish industry sector will feature an important further growth of 43 % until 2030 compared to the 2007 level (i.e., 43 Mtoe

189 instead of 30 Mtoe), if no active efficiency improvements are undertaken. However, the technical saving potential of 10.8 Mtoe by 2030 will not trigger additional savings compared to the level in 2007, but at least soften the future demand increase to 7 % instead of 43 %. Similarly to the other countries, the bulk of savings is related to efficient cross-cutting technologies: 5.8 Mtoe originate from efficient heat generation, 1.9 Mtoe from e-drive system optimisation measures and 0.2 Mtoe from efficient lighting and efficient motors respectively. Process technologies account for 2.6 Mtoe in total, mainly dominated by efficiency gains in the iron and steel as well as in the chemical industry. The PRIMES forecast predicts a significantly slower increase in FED in the tertiary sector, compared to the past 20 years. By 2030 FED will have reached 15 Mtoe compared to 14 Mtoe in 2007. The saving potential sums up to 6.4 Mtoe by 2030, leading to a 43 % demand reduction and thus to 8.4 Mtoe remaining FED. Contrarily to the households sector, the bulk of saving is resulting from efficiency improvements in existing buildings (3.4 Mtoe) and less from new buildings (1 Mtoe). Other savings are related to efficient air-conditioning (1 Mtoe) and efficient office lighting (0.4 Mtoe). The overall saving potential of Spain sums up to 53 Mtoe by 2030. In comparison with the PRIMES baseline, FED is reduced by 43 % to 71 Mtoe instead of 124 Mtoe. Half of the savings result from transport, a quarter from households and the remaining quarter from industry and tertiary sector. Figure 4-112: Technical energy saving potentials in Spain, by sector


190

Poland Poland has experienced an extraordinary economic growth over the past 20 years, doubling the GDP value from 1990 (cf. Figure 4-103). Simultaneously the Polish final energy demand experienced only a slight increase of 6 % compared to 1990. This can mainly be explained by an important improvement of energy efficiency and structural changes in the Polish economy, shifting from industry towards the tertiary sector. Figure 4-105 shows a clear decline of the energy intensity between 1990 and 2009 from 0.44 to 0.23 koe/€2000, which equals a 51 % reduction or, in other words, a doubling of energy efficiency. However, compared to other, more efficient countries such as Germany, the Polish energy intensity was still more than 138 % above the German value. Despite the fact that FED did not rise much over the last two decades, the single sectors experienced very much different developments in FED (cf. Figure 4-113). The transport and tertiary sector experienced a clear and steady growth of 118 % and 23 % respectively between 1990 and 2008, while the household sector had a strong increase in the early 1990s, but is now continuously dropping back to the 1990 level. The growth in these three sectors is mostly compensated by a FED decline in the industry sector, which is (as mentioned above) linked to increased efficiency. In 2008, the total FED summed up to 60 Mtoe, being composed of the household sector (31 %), equal shares of industry and transport sector (25 % each) and the tertiary (18 %). For the upcoming two decades, PRIMES predicts a 25 % increase until 2030, which is equally spread over the transport, industry and tertiary sector. Figure 4-113: Sectoral final energy demand in Poland, 1990 - 2008


191 According to PRIMES 2009, the household sector is the one expecting the lowest growth in FED, rising from 18 Mtoe in 2007 up to 20 Mtoe in 2030. Exploiting the technical energy saving potential would reduce the energy demand by nearly the half (47 %) compared to the baseline, leading to 10 Mtoe of residual demand. Two thirds or 6.4 Mtoe of all savings are related to efficiency improvements in existing buildings, another 1.8 Mtoe result from efficient new buildings. The remaining one Mtoe is mainly covered by efficient lighting and water heating, whereas efficient electric appliances play a minor role of only 0.3 Mtoe. The FED in the transport sector is expected to continue its significant growth, further rising from 15 Mtoe in 2007 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, which equals to a 46 % increase if no efficiency action is undertaken. In the short term, 2.6 Mtoe of savings can simply be triggered through a modal shift in passenger transport, covering already almost half of the savings achievable. By 2030, the total saving potential mounts up to 9 Mtoe, hence compensating for the further increase and even driving additional savings, reducing the FED by 41 % (compared to the baseline) to 13 Mtoe. Nearly half of the savings result from goods transport (2 Mtoe from technical improvements and behavioural changes, respectively), 15 percentage points from passenger transport (in 2030 dominated by technical improvements) and one additional Mtoe from efficient air traffic. The industry sector experienced a decline in FED over the past 20 years despite a stable industrial output and a significant increase of the industrial value added (see also the introduction of this section). Apart from structural changes, this is particularly related to an increase in energy efficiency. However, for the period until 2030, PRIMES forecasts an increase in FED that goes along with a further augmentation of value added and energy efficiency. By 2030, the industrial energy demand is supposed to reach 19 Mtoe according to PRIMES, compared to 16 Mtoe in 2007. Exploiting the total technical energy saving potential would limit the FED to 15 Mtoe by 2030, hence reducing the energy demand by 20 % compared to the baseline. One quarter of the 3.8 Mtoe saving potential is largely related to improvements through the holistic optimisation of electric motor driven systems but also to efficient lighting and from electric motors itself. Some additional 2 Mtoe result from efficient heat generation and a further diffusion of CHP technology. Roughly one Mtoe can be gained in process specific technologies, in particular in the iron and steel sector. Comparable to the transport sector, the tertiary sector’s FED is likewise expected to increase over the next two decades by nearly 40 % from 10 Mtoe in 2007 to 14 Mtoe in 2030, in the baseline scenario. The technical saving potential is one and a half time as big as the FED growth, making the FED drop by 6 Mtoe down to 8 Mtoe by 2030. 5 Mtoe are related to efficiency improvements in buildings (heating

192 and insulation), whereby the contribution from existing buildings doubles the one from new buildings. The remaining one Mtoe is mainly triggered by efficiency improvements in office lighting, fans and commercial refrigeration and freezing. Bringing together all technical saving potentials permits a 38 % reduction in energy demand by 2030 compared to the baseline. That translates by a decrease from 75 Mtoe to 47 Mtoe. Due to the fact, that energy savings in the transport, tertiary and industry sector largely compensate for further demand increases and do not drive significant additional savings compared to today’s level, the net savings are mainly driven by the household sector and sum up to 13 Mtoe (or 22 %) in comparison with 60 Mtoe in 2007. Figure 4-114: Technical energy saving potentials in Poland, by sector


Comparison of national saving potentials Table 4-11 gives a final overview of the saving potentials in the various countries. It is worth noting that in the short term (by 2020) Germany features the highest relative as well as absolute savings of nearly 30 % compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, whereas Italy reports only a 21 % saving potential. While this saving potential is dominated by the households sector in central European countries (Germany and Poland) due to the climatic circumstances, the transport has a major influence in the Southern European countries. By 2030, Germany would be able to halve its FED compared to the 2007 level, due to the declining energy demand in the baseline, whereas Poland’s saving potential is the lowest one (22 % relative to 2007) since FED in the baseline will further increase. Compared to the EU average of 38 % (in comparison with 2007), only Germany and France promise higher saving potentials, whereas the other three countries are significantly falling below this

193 value. Assuming a full implementation of the saving potentials, Italy would report a residual FED of 100 Mtoe which is higher than the French one and almost as high as the German demand.

194

Table 4-11:

Overview of final energy demand and energy saving potentials in specific countries and EU27

195

5

Summary and discussion of results

In this chapter, the potentials for the technical and economic final energy savings as well as for the primary energy demand reduction and for the greenhouse gas emission mitigation are brought together on the highest level of aggregation. In the first part, the final energy related results from the sectoral overviews (cf. section 4.4.1) are summarised and the technical potential trajectory as well as the overall cost curve are shown for the EU27. In a second part, the same procedure is carried out for primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials. Given the results from the second part, in the last section a rearrangement of energy saving wedges is done in the light of the achievement of the 20 % efficiency target.

5.1

Overall final energy saving potentials

This section summarises the results of the assessment of the technical and economic potentials on sectoral level and sums up to an overall survey. It is worth noting that generally speaking the technical saving potential assessed in this study is a rather conservative estimation. Given the fact that final energy savings from a shift in car propulsion technology as well as from efficiency improvements in electricity generation and transport were not included in this report, the actual potential is supposed to be even higher than the data presented. The reason therefore lay in the fact that the two main underlying studies ((ISI, 2009a) and (ISI, 2009c)) did not include these sectors. Hence, a rough estimation of the saving potentials was carried out. However, a detailed assessment of the potentials could not be completed in the framework of this study thus resulting in the exclusion of these potentials from the overall potential assessment. As can be clearly seen in Table 5-1, the highest technical saving potential is related to the refurbishment of existing buildings. Further short-term potentials can be exploited through efficient industrial heat generation and the construction of efficient new residential buildings. By 2030, the significance of saving potentials slightly shifts. Efficient heating systems as well as technical improvements in passenger cars gain in importance. However, the bulk of savings is still related to the same saving options as in the first two decades.

196 Table 5-1:

Technical energy saving potentials in all sectors (not taking into account e-Mobility), EU27

197 Adding all saving potentials together results in a 41 % FED reduction by 2030 compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline 47, reducing energy demand from 1216 Mtoe down to 714 Mtoe, if the saving potential of e-Mobility is not included. By 2050, final energy demand in the baseline scenario is supposed to experience a slight decrease of 3 % compared to 2030. The entire technical energy saving potentials promise a reduction of 57 %, decreasing the total FED to a level of 512 Mtoe. The total savings of 671 Mtoe are covered through households (207 Mtoe), industry (192 Mtoe), transport (181 Mtoe) and tertiary (90 Mtoe). Any more detailed information regarding the energy savings on sectoral level can be found in section 4.4.1. If the final energy savings through e-Mobility are included (see also Figure 5-1) the saving potential in 2030 mounts up to 507 Mtoe (instead of 502 Mtoe) and to 707 Mtoe (instead of 671 Mtoe) in 2050, resulting in a 42 % and 60 % reduction, respectively. Figure 5-1:

Total energy saving potentials in the EU27 until 2050


Figure 5-2 depicts to what extent the potentials identified can be covered by concrete measures that are explained in the fact sheets (cf. 4.1.4). The coverage through the calculated wedges rises from 72 % at the beginning of the period under review up to 85 % by 2030 (and keeping constant at this level up to 2050)m

47 In order to cover the total final energy demand, sectors not mentioned before, such as agriculture, are herein included in the tertiary sector numbers in order to represent the entire baseline value.

198 resulting in an average coverage of about 83 %. While in the first decades, only in the household sector the majority of measures were subject to an in-depth analysis (apart from sanitary hot water heating), potentials in the transport as well as in the industry sector are underrepresented in the fact sheets (only about 80 %).

Figure 5-2:

Overview of the coverage of saving potentials by means of calculated 48 and estimated wedges


Comparing the technical saving potential identified in the framework of this study with the final energy demand reduction trajectories (cf. Figure 5-3) clearly underlines, that most of the studies do not expect the energy demand decrease to the extent that is technically possible. In contrary, even ambitious studies such as the Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution (Greenpeace, 2010a) suppose only half of the technical saving potential to be exploited. In the ambitious 450ppm scenario of the IEA (IEA, 2010a) the demand projection is even close to the PRIMES baseline, hence not assuming demand reduction measures at all.

48 The calculated wedge for transport also includes the potential from e-Mobility

199 Figure 5-3:

Comparison of the technical saving potential (not taking into account e-Mobility) and the results from other studies

Source: Fraunhofer ISI Figure 5-4 shows the cost curve of all measures 49 being identified in the four sectors: household, tertiary, industry and transport. Three main conclusions can be drawn from the chart. Firstly, the overall saving potential (economic as well as technical) is dominated by measures located in the households and transport sector. Secondly, measures from the transport sector represent the most cost-effective as well as the most cost-intense options for reducing the final energy demand. Finally it is obvious that over the coming decades a strong shift within the order of the cost curve will occur.

49 apart from e-Mobility and efficiency improvements in energy generation, transmission and distribution

200 Figure 5-4:

Overall cost curve for all sectors, EU27


Hence, a second type of illustration was chosen that depicts in a clearer way the evolution of the cost curve shape over the next 40 years. In Figure 5-5 the four yearly cost curves integrated in Figure 5-4 are shown separately. The elements included in the cost curves were rearranged by increasing specific energy saving costs. Thus, it can be observed, that efficiency measures in the household and industry sector that were part of the most cost-effective options in 2020 (such as residential lighting or industrial electric drive system optimisation) are steadily pushed aside by more cost-efficient measures in the transport sector (particularly in the passenger transport sector). The main driver for this shift of the order of options is mainly driven through the differing increase in fuel prices. For instance, building related measures that represent an enormous energy saving potential, do not experience the same rise in cost reduction than efficiency improvements in the transport sector because the absolute cost increase for natural gas (used in households for heating) is lower than for gasoline (used in passenger cars and motorcycles) even though the relative price rise is equivalent.

201 Figure 5-5:

Overview of the overall cost curves in the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, EU27


Table 5-2 summarises again the main results of the economic assessment. It reports on the one hand side the economic energy saving potentials, i.e. all saving potentials with specific costs below zero Euro per unit of energy saved (this is equal to all the potential blocks below the horizontal axis in the cost curve charts) which comprises all low hanging and high hanging fruits as well as former immature fruits that became cost-effective due to fuel price rise. The financial benefits related to these potentials are given in the “economies” column. On the other hand side, the overall (technical) saving potential is pointed out and the net-benefit is calculated. This benefit is equal to or below the benefit of the cost-efficient measures mentioned beforehand, since additional financial effort is required in order to deploy the non-economic potential. However, overall, even including the technical potentials considered here, there are still economies as compared to the reference development.

202

Table 5-2:

Overview of the overall energy saving potentials and financial benefits due to energy saving options, EU27

2020

2030

2040

2050

Potential

Economies

Potential

Economies

Potential

Economies

Potential

Economies

[Mtoe]

[bn €’05]

[Mtoe]

[bn €’05]

[Mtoe]

[bn €’05]

[Mtoe]

[bn €’05]

House-

Cost-efficient

81

31

146

75

164

100

199

127

holds

Overall

101

25

187

68

199

96

207

124

Tertiary

Cost-efficient

40

20

58

40

82

55

90

71

Overall

47

19

71

39

82

55

90

71

Cost-efficient

45

29

71

44

129

74

173

105

Overall

57

25

88

41

143

70

192

102

Transport 50

Cost-efficient

88

80

119

116

131

161

153

210

Overall

112

62

156

91

171

138

181

191

Overall

Cost-efficient

255

159

395

275

506

389

615

514

Overall

317

131

502

239

595

359

669

488

Industry


50 Excluding savings due to e-Mobility

203 Considering the data from Table 5-2 as well as the information from Figure 5-5 permits drawing the following conclusions: 

The highest sectoral benefits can be triggered through deployment of transport related energy saving measures (€210 billion for the economic measures, €191 billion for all measures) whereas



the highest sectoral energy saving potential is located in the household sector (199 Mtoe economic potential and 207 Mtoe technical potential).



In the long-run (beyond 2040) the entire saving potential in the tertiary sector is cost-effective whereas



the industry sector requires only very little financial incentives in order to unlock the remaining non-economic saving potential.



The economic saving potential increases by more than 140 % between 2020 and 2050 (255 vs. 615 Mtoe) while the benefit deriving from costeffective measures is more than tripling up to €514 billion by 2050 due to the expected increase in fossil fuel prices.



The share of the economic potential compared to the technical potential increases from 80 % in 2020 up to 92 % by 2050.



In order to deploy the entire technical saving potential by 2050 (this equals to an increase of 8 %), the benefits would be reduced by 5 % which is comparable to mean benefits from energy savings of roughly 490 M€’05/Mtoe. This shows that even including the technical potentials considered here, there are still economies as compared to the reference development.

5.2

Overall primary energy saving and GHG emission reduction potentials

Bearing in mind the results of the final energy savings from the previous chapter, this section focuses on the consequential implications of final energy related efficiency measures and improved energy conversion efficiency on the primary energy demand and the overall GHG emissions. Figure 5-6 summarises the sectoral results of chapter 4.4.1 by depicting the overall primary energy savings. The saving potential is actually split in two parts. The first part of savings originates from efficiency improvements in the electricity generation process (cf. the slice “Conversion savings”). By the year 2050, the overall primary

204 energy demand as forecasted in PRIMES 2009 (European Commission, 2010) can be potentially reduced by 25 % through a shift towards a high-efficient electricity generation mix, as considered in the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study 51. The bulk of conversion savings results from the household and tertiary as well as from the industry sector. This is due to the fact that these sectors feature the highest degree of electrification. In the transport sector, this effect is more limited, since this sector according to the assumptions taken in this study on Emobility is still mainly relying on oil products as energy carriers. Only 10 % of the passenger car stock is shifted to electricity by 2050. Subtracting the conversion savings from the PRIMES 2009 baseline leads to the so-called “Ambitious RES” baseline which represents the reference pathway for the assessment of the final energy related efficiency measures. The coloured parts in Figure 5-6 represent the primary energy savings through the calculated as well as the estimated wedges. By the year 2050, the overall savings will have summed up to 736 Mtoe which equals a 47 % reduction compared to the “Ambitious RES” baseline. With regard to the PRIMES 2009 baseline, these savings deliver an additional 35 % reduction, leading to a remaining primary energy demand of 568 Mtoe in 2050.

51 As mentioned earlier, this study is likewise carried out by Fraunhofer ISI on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. From this study scenario B was used for the calculation of the primary energy savings.

205 Figure 5-6:

Overall primary energy savings compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand

Savings energy conversion

Savings final demand


Table 5-3 gives an overview of the sectoral energy savings in 2030 and 2050. By 2050, the industry sector can contribute most to the reduction of primary energy demand with 389 Mtoe saving potential which is equal to a 65 % demand reduction compared to the industrial baseline value. Such a strong potential decline in energy demand is only exceeded by the households sector with 76 % energy saving potential until 2050. The transport sector features a very strong energy saving potential through final energy related efficiency measures. However, the overall relative savings are lower than in the other sectors, given the fact that the transport sector is less benefitting from increased conversion efficiency in the electricity sector due to the low share of electricity among the final energy carriers.

206 Table 5-3:

Year

2010

2030

2050

Overview of primary energy savings in the different sectors

Sector

PRIMES baseline [Mtoe]

Conversion savings

Saving potential wedges [Mtoe]

HH

484

-

-

-

-

484

TE

327

-

-

-

-

327

IN

544

-

-

-

-

544

TR

411

-

-

-

-

411

Total

1767

-

-

-

-

1767

HH

486

19 %

232

48 %

67 %

161

TE

342

26 %

93

27 %

53 %

161

IN

566

21 %

114

20 %

41 %

335

TR

418

2%

170

41 %

43 %

240

Total

1813

17 %

608

34 %

51 %

897

HH

451

25 %

230

51 %

76 %

94

TE

323

36 %

102

32 %

68 %

103

IN

592

29 %

215

36 %

65 %

203

TR

368

4%

188

51 %

55 %

167

Total

1735

25 %

736

42 %

67 %

568

Relative savings through wedges

Overall savings

Remaining demand [Mtoe]


With regard to the GHG emission reduction potential, the picture looks slightly different than for primary energy demand. While primary energy demand is further growing in the PRIMES 2009 baseline, GHG emissions are subject to a 31 % reduction between 2010 and 2050 (see Figure 5-8). This evolution is based on the fact that the generation of electricity is to an increasing extent ensured by decarbonised generation technologies, mainly nuclear and CCS power plants but also renewable energy sources. Hence, the electricity generation mix in the alternative baseline (which is based on the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study) affects the GHG emission development much less than the primary energy demand,

207 since the overall efficiency is much higher in the alternative baseline, whereas the specific GHG emissions decrease significantly in both scenarios (cf. Figure 5-7). Figure 5-7:

Comparison of the development of the electricity generation efficiency and the specific GHG emission per unit of electricity under the two baselines


Thus the contribution of the “conversion savings” equals a 15 % (or 389 Mt CO2-eq) GHG emission reduction by 2050 (see also Table 5-4). While this share is similar in 2020 (10 %), it is much lower for the years 2020 and 2030. This can be explained by the fact that by 2020, the PRIMES baseline sticks to conventional power generation whereas for the alternative electricity generation mix a strong shift from solids towards renewable energy sources takes place, which is substantially depleting the specific emissions. Under PRIMES the fuel shift is occurring in the years 2030 and 2040 (mainly towards nuclear and CCS) whereas the alternative baseline experiences a cutback of nuclear that diminishes the specific emission reduction pathway. The overall contribution from the use of final energy related energy efficiency measures lowers the overall GHG emissions to the level of 871 Mt CO2-eq by 2050 which equals 33 % of the PRIMES baseline emissions. Hence, the emission reduction potential of efficiency measures is equivalent to a 1359 Mt CO2-eq. The emission reduction potential grows strongest during the first two decades, given the fact that the declining specific GHG emissions for electricity are not only lowering the baseline emissions but also affecting the energy saving measures.

208 Figure 5-8:

Overall GHG emission reduction potential compared to the calculated emissions from the PRIMES 2009 baseline energy demand


The contribution of the various sectoral efficiency measures permits a clear tripartition of the emission reduction potential in 2050: roughly one third originates from the transport sector, nearly one third is represented by the industry sector and the remaining third is based on efficiency measures in the household and tertiary sector. As mentioned earlier, it is worth noticing that the higher the share of electricity as final energy carrier in a sector, the lower the contribution from this sector to GHG emission reduction due to the increasing decarbonisation of the power sector.

209 Table 5-4:

Year

2010

2030

2050

Overall GHG emission reduction potential in the different sectors

Sector

PRIMES baseline [Mt CO2eq]

Conversion savings

Saving potential wedges [Mt CO2eq]

Relative savings through wedges

Overall savings

Remaining emissions [Mt CO2eq]

HH

919

-

-

-

-

919

TE

629

-

-

-

-

629

IN

1072

-

-

-

-

1072

TR

1203

-

-

-

-

1203

Total

3823

-

-

-

-

3823

HH

716

5%

399

56 %

61 %

282

TE

472

7%

165

35 %

42 %

275

IN

896

5%

237

26 %

31 %

616

TR

1165

0%

511

44 %

44 %

650

Total

3248

3%

1312

40 %

44 %

1824

HH

538

21 %

295

55 %

76 %

128

TE

336

32 %

125

37 %

69 %

105

IN

767

20 %

377

49 %

70 %

233

TR

978

1%

562

57 %

59 %

404

Total

2619

15 %

1359

52 %

67 %

871


Summarising the main insights from this section leads to the following conclusion:  Primary energy demand and GHG emissions can be reduced most efficiently by addressing final energy demand with concrete energy saving measures and by moving to a high-efficient, low carbon electricity generation mix.  Primary energy demand can be reduced in the long-run (2050) to a level of 568 Mtoe (67 % below the PRIMES baseline and 66 % below 1990 levels).

210  GHG emissions can be potentially reduced to 871 Mt CO2-eq by 2050 (67 % below the PRIMES baseline and 80 % below the 1990 levels 52, 53).  Final energy related efficiency measures can deliver long-term primary energy savings of 736 Mtoe and a reduction of GHG emissions of 1359 Mt CO2-eq.  Shifting to a high-efficient, low-carbon energy supply system, such as the one assumed in the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study, can significantly contribute to the reduction of primary energy demand by 444 Mtoe in 2050, and to the reduction of GHG emissions by 389 Mt CO2-eq compared to the PRIMES baseline.  Among both types of efficiency potentials (final energy and energy conversion related) the first deliver the largest savings in both primary energy and GHG emissions. This varies across the sectors: some sectors, such as the transport sector, do not benefit from increased conversion efficiency due to a high energy chain efficiency (e.g. for oil products) whereas other sectors show limited final energy saving potentials (e.g. electric appliances in the household sector) but strong demand reductions by means of a highly efficient electricity generation.  The analysis shows that there is a strong interaction between the penetration of renewables in the power sector and savings in the final energy sectors: On the one hand side, applying final energy use related efficiency measures helps lowering the energy demand and hence raising the share of decarbonised energy conversion technologies, whereas on the other hand side high-efficient renewable energy sources trigger additional benefits regarding the overall primary energy efficiency.

52 The aim of the European Union is to reduce GHG emission by 80 to 95 % compared to the 1990 level (Council of the European Union, 15265/1/09 REV 1, Brussels, 1 December 2009 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/110889.pdf). This equals a corridor of 214 to 857 Mt CO2-eq. The calculated 871 Mt CO2-eq clearly underline the significance of energy efficiency measures, increased conversion efficiency and a decarbonised energy sector in order to reach this target. Further emission reductions can be triggered through the carbon-neutral generation of final energy carriers other than electricity (e.g. geo-thermal heat, solar thermal heat, biomass, biofuels etc.)

53 In 1990 energy related GHG emissions of the EU-27 were equivalent to 4283.9 Mt CO2-eq according to (UNFCCC, 2011).

211

5.3

Rearrangement of wedges

On the basis of the energy saving and emission reduction potentials, determined in the previous chapters, at this point a final rearrangement of the wedges is carried out. The main target of this task is to determine “efficiency technology packages” of comparable size that might pave the way towards the 20% efficiency target by 2020 that was announced by the European Commission in various documents 54. The 20 % efficiency target is formulated as a 20 % decrease of primary energy demand by 2020 compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline (European Commission, 2008). From the Impact Assessment accompanying the Energy Efficiency Plan 2011 (European Commission, 2011d) it becomes clear that this relative demand reduction excludes the non-energy use for 2020 (126 Mtoe). Hence, the absolute saving target is calculated as follows: 1971 Mtoe (primary energy forecast for 2020 according to PRIMES 2007) less the non-energy use (126 Mtoe) multiplied by 20 %. The result is 368 Mtoe of savings or in other words the reduction to a level of 1602 Mtoe by 2020. The latest projections from the European Commission based on the PRIMES 2009 calculations (European Commission, 2010) forecast a primary energy demand in 2020 of 1828 Mtoe. This value differs from the target mentioned beforehand by only 14 % or 226 Mtoe and is the consequence of lower than expected economic growth and the further penetration of GHG reduction measures. Within the next steps, the aim is to identify efficiency wedges that might help to overcome the gap of the 226 Mtoe towards the 20 % efficiency target and to determine to which extent the application of these wedges is required. As explained in section 5.2, the overall primary energy savings through final energy related efficiency measures mount up to 404 Mtoe 55 by 2020. Further savings of 195 Mtoe can potentially be generated through the shift towards a high-efficient electricity generation mix (so-called “conversion savings”). In order to split up the 404 Mtoe of savings identified, 10 similarly sized wedges of roughly 40 Mtoe are created. In order to pool the various efficiency technologies analysed in this report, a specific filtering procedure is applied considering the following criteria:

54 e.g. in the Communication on the “Strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy”, from 10 November 2010, COM(2010) 639 final

55 This figure includes the savings from calculated and estimated wedges.

212 •

Cost-efficiency of the measure/technology: roughly 80 Mtoe of primary energy savings are not cost-efficient by 2020. These measures are subdivided by sector into wedge 9 (households and tertiary) and 10 (industry and transport). All cost-efficient measures need to be further filtered.

•

Type of measure (behaviour related or technical): behaviour related measures appear in the transport and industry sector. They were sub-divided according to their sectoral belonging (wedge 5 and 7). Technical measures dominate the saving potentials. They were further split according to the next criteria.

•

Sectoral belonging: given the fact that the “efficiency technology packages” shall be likewise addressed by “policy measure packages” a subdivision regarding the sectoral belonging was carried out. Wedge 8 covers technical improvements in the transport sector. Measures from the household, tertiary and transport sector need to be further distinguished.

•

Type of final energy carrier: efficiency measures are addressed to specific applications that are potentially dominated by particular fuels. In the industry sector, process specific saving technologies help reducing the demand for electricity as well as heat and other energy carriers. They are grouped together with CHP in wedge 6. The remaining industrial efficiency technologies (efficient electric drives and lighting) are included in the industry wedge 5. In the households and tertiary sector, a large number of efficiency technologies address electricity consuming appliances. They are hence combined in wedge 4. The remaining efficiency measures in the household and tertiary sector are related to the buildings sector.

•

Heating vs. building technologies: all efficiency measures related to the efficient generation of heat or cold are merged in wedge 3. The remaining measures aim on a reduced heat consumption.

•

New vs. existing buildings: finally, building related measures are divided into those addressing the refurbishment of existing (wedge 2) or the construction of new buildings (wedge 1).

Table 5-5 gives an overview of the newly arranged wedges and their specific characteristics.

213 Table 5-5:

# 1 2

Overview of the characteristics of the newly arranged wedges

Title of wedge New buildings Refurbishment of existing buildings

Sector addressed HH, TE HH, TE

Applications addressed - New buildings - Refurbishment of existing buildings

Costefficient yes yes

- Heating in existing buildings 3

Efficient heating & cooling

- Water heating HH, TE

- Centralised air-conditioning

yes

(TE) - fans in (TE) - Household appliances - Green ICT

4

Electricity using appliances

HH, TE

- Lighting - Commercial refrigeration and

yes

freezing (TE) - Other motor appliances (TE) Electric cross-cutting 5

technologies/ meas-

- E-drive system optimisation IN

ures 6

Process-technologies and CHP

- Electric drives

yes

- Industrial lighting - Process technologies IN

- CHP

yes

- Industrial space heating - Behavioural changes in pas-

7

Behaviour related measures

senger and freight road transTR

port

yes

- Modal shift in passenger and freight road transport - Technical improvements in the passenger and freight road

8

Technical and other improvements

transport TR

- Motor cycles

yes

- Public transport - Aviation - Rail - Refurbishment of existing

Non cost-effective 9

measures in households and tertiary sector

HH, TE

buildings - Heating in existing buildings - Household appliances

no

214 - Green ICT - Lighting - Other motor appliances (TE) - Industrial space heating - Process technologies - Technical improvements in the passenger and freight road

Non cost-effective 10

measures in industry and transport

IN, TR

transport

no

- Motor cycles - Public transport - Aviation - Rail


Combining the rearranged wedges and putting them into relation to the PRIMES 2009 baseline illustrates that the bulk of energy demand reduction up to 2020 could potentially be realised through conversion savings (see Figure 5-9). Only a single efficiency wedge would be required to achieve the 20 % savings objective (considering the assumptions regarding the fuel mix as explained in 4.1.4). Figure 5-9:

Overview of the primary energy savings through conversion savings and rearranged wedges


215 Assuming a less ambitious shift towards a high-efficient electricity generation mix might necessitate the realisation of a number of additional wedges in order to attain the efficiency target. Figure 5-10 illustrates that up to six wedges would be required in order to lower primary energy demand to the 1602 Mtoe the European Commission is aiming for. Given the fact that the determination of the primary energy saving potential was calculated by means of the ambitious conversion efficiency from the “EU long-term scenarios 2050” study, a less ambitious efficiency would result in higher saving potentials. Hence, less than six wedges might be necessary in order to comply with the efficiency target. Figure 5-10:

Overview of primary energy savings through rearranged efficiency wedges and conversion savings


Table 5-6 gives a quantitative overview of the rearranged wedges in order to better understand to which extent the rearranged wedges imply energy savings, GHG emission reductions and trigger financial benefits. Even though it is difficult to rank the rearranged wedges regarding their merits and drawbacks, Table 5-6 provides the information that wedge two (refurbishment of existing buildings), seven (behaviour related measures in the transport sector) and eight (technical and other improvements in the transport sector) have the strongest impact on final as well as primary energy demand reduction and on GHG emission mitigation while triggering important financial benefits – from a 2020 point of view.

216 In the long-run, wedge six (industrial process technologies and CHP) can deliver the highest final as well as primary energy savings. Summarizing the results of chapter 5 clearly underlines that both, final energy related efficiency measures as well as a high efficient electricity generation mix, deliver substantial primary energy savings and emission reductions. Nevertheless, in a long-term perspective up to 2050 final energy efficiency measures contribute the bulk of energy savings and emission reductions. On the one hand side this has a direct impact on the competitiveness of the European economy and on the other hand side this is substantial to ensure security of supply.

217

Table 5-6:

Overview of energy saving and emission reduction potentials of the newly arranged wedges (the fields pointed out in red/green feature the highest energy savings/benefits in 2020/2050; negative values represent financial benefits)

Final energy savings [Mtoe]

Energy saving costs [bn €’05]

Primary energy savings [Mtoe]

GHG emission reduction [Mt CO2-eq]

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

1 - New buildings (HH, TE)

34

48

55

-10

-22

-38

42

58

61

75

99

79

2 - Refurbish. existing build. (HH, TE)

46

70

119

-16

-33

-64

53

80

131

106

157

198

3 - Eff. heating and cooling (HH, TE)

30

63

84

-13

-32

-59

40

76

94

73

140

134

4 - Electricity using appliances (IN)

11

24

31

-12

-28

-37

23

40

38

32

53

8

5 - Electric cross-cutting techn. (IN)

15

21

46

-16

-23

-53

32

36

57

45

47

12

6 - Process-technologies & CHP (IN)

30

49

125

-13

-22

-53

37

57

135

91

144

325

7 - Behav. related measures (TR)

47

46

67

-47

-54

-92

50

49

69

155

151

212

8 - Technical improvements (TR)

42

74

86

-34

-62

-118

46

80

89

137

242

265

9 - Non cost-effective (HH, TE)

27

54

8

7

8

4

38

70

10

66

114

2

10 - Non cost-effective (IN, TR)

35

55

49

22

29

23

42

62

53

108

165

124

Total

317

502

671

-131

-239

-488

404

608

736

886

1312

1359


218

Annex I Scenario descriptions Study

Scenario

Scenario description Scenario of the EU energy system under current trends and policies; includes current trends on PRIMES, Base- 2009 Basepopulation and economic development including the recent economic downturn; includes national line line 2009 and EU policies and measures implemented until April 2009. (European Same macroeconomic, price, technology and policy assumptions as the baseline; includes policies Commission, adopted between April 2009 and December 2009; assumes that national targets under the RES DiReference 2010) rective 2009/28/EC and the GHG effort sharing Directive 2009/406/EC are achieved in 2020. In the Reference scenario policies are continued as defined in the year 2007. There are no GHG emission targets defined for the longer term i.e. for the years 2020 and 2050. It is assumed that cliReference mate change is actually occurring i.e. the world is facing an increase of temperature by +4-degree European Celsius by 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels. Commission, The first 2-Degree scenario aiming on a concentration of 450 ppm CO2eq in the long run. After 2008 ADAM 450ppm mitigation policies are implemented and climate change is successfully limited to +2°C (50% likeli(ISI, 2009c) hood), such that adaptation impacts to climate change remain very limited. The second 2-Degree scenario, targeting a concentration of 400ppm CO2eq providing a 70% likeli400ppm hood that the 2°C target is achieved. The Reference projection describes a continuation of existing economic and technological trends, Reference including short-term constraints on the development of oil and gas production and moderate climate policies for which it is assumed that Europe keeps the lead. European Commission, The hydrogen scenario is derived from the carbon constraint case, but also assumes a series of WETO-H2 Hydrogen technology breakthroughs that significantly increase the cost-effectiveness of hydrogen technologies, (European case (H2) in particular in end-use. The assumptions made on progress for the key hydrogen technologies are Commission, deliberately very optimistic. 2007) Carbon This scenario explores the consequences of more ambitious carbon policies that aim at a long-term constraint stabilisation of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere close to 500 ppm by 2050. case (CCC) IEA, World EnCurrent A baseline in which only policies already formally adopted and implemented are taken into account

219 Study ergy Outlook 2010 (IEA, 2010a)

Scenario policies scenario (CPS) New policies scenario (NPS)

450ppm

IEA, Energy Baseline Technology Perspectives 2010 BLUE Map (IEA, 2010c)

Greenpeace, Energy [R]evolution (Greenpeace, 2010)

Reference

Advanced Energy [R]evolution

ECF, Roadmap Baseline 2050 (Reference) (ECF, 2010)

Scenario description

Assumes the introduction of new measures (but on a relatively cautious basis) to implement the broad policy commitments that have already been announced, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and, in certain countries, plans to phase out fossil energy subsidies. This scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in average temperature to 2°C, which would require the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to be limited to around 450 ppm CO2-eq. Its trajectory to 2020 is somewhat higher than in WEO-2009, which started from a lower baseline and assumed stronger policy action before 2020. The decline in emissions is, by necessity, correspondingly faster after 2020. This scenario assumes that no new policies are introduced and follows the WEO 2009 Reference scenario to 2030. This scenario assumes that global energy-related CO2 emissions are reduced to half their 2005 levels by 2050 and is broadly optimistic for all technologies. This scenario is based on the reference scenario published by IEA in World Energy Outlook 2009. This only takes existing international energy and environmental policies into account. Its assumptions include, for example, continuing progress in electricity and gas market reforms, the liberalisation of cross-border energy trade and recent policies designed to combat environmental pollution. The Reference scenario does not include additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the IEA’s projection only covers a time horizon up to 2030, it has also been extended by extrapolating its key macroeconomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario is aimed at a very ambitious decrease in CO2 emissions (195 million tonnes in 2050). All general framework parameters such as population and economic growth remain the same as in the Reference scenario. This scenario is based on sources like the IEA’s WEO 2009, UN or Oxford Economics, while detailed breakdowns and interpolations have been developed by the project team. Economic growth by sector and region is based on Oxford Economics and WEO 2009, and shares of energy and power demand and supply by region based on PRIMES. Growth in demand and emissions from 2030 to 2050 is ex-

220 Study

Scenario

80% RES

Baseline (Reference) I-TREN2030 (i-TREN, 2010)

Integrated Transport policies

Reference HOP! (TRT, 2008) 150 Smooth

European Comission, EU Energy Roadmap 2050 (European Commission, 2011a)

220 Smooth Reference Current Policy Initiatives Energy efficiency

Scenario description trapolated using similar trends in energy, power and emissions intensity as 2010 to 2030. Main focus on power sector, where 80% of power capacities consist of RES, 10% of CCS and 10% of nuclear power. Fossil fuel prices are modelled as per the IEA WEO 2009 “450 Scenario” (which projects lower future prices than the WEO 2009 “Reference” scenario due to the assumption of lower future demand). The WEO 2009 projections carry out to 2030, after which prices have been assumed to stay flat in real terms through 2050. The Reference Scenario is not intending to provide forecasts of the most likely future. It is built on the assumption of frozen policy as of 2008 i.e. only policies are included that are decided by EU Council or EU parliament until mid 2008. It is model-based i.e. driven by the inherent and harmonised trends of the iTREN-2030 model suite. The economic crisis is not considered. The Integrated Scenario builds on the Reference Scenario. It includes energy and transport policies/measures that will be taken between 2008/2009 and 2025. Policies should be: relevant and likely. The policies reflect the pressures and opportunities coming from the three major policy drivers of the next two decades: climate policy, fossil fuel scarcity, new technologies. The economic crisis of 2008/2009 is included. The scenario Ref 70 (Reference Scenario) assumes high amounts of oil reserves and can be seen as an optimistic scenario. It reaches an oil price of about 70 €2000/bbl in 2020, smoothly rising to 140 €2000/bbl by 2050. Investment in energy efficiency and alternative energy sources follows common trend. Taxation takes the current excise duties plus the changes through the diesel directive into account. A carbon dioxide value rising from 5 €/t CO2 to 30 €/t CO2 is taken into consideration. The scenario 150 Smooth assumes a smoothly increasing oil price which reaches a level of 150 €2000/bbl in 2020. This leads to increased investment in energy efficiency as well as in alternative sources. 220 Smooth investigates a higher oil price than 150 Smooth (> 220 €/bbl in 2020). Scenario includes national and EU policies and measures implemented until March 2010 . The scenario includes measures adopted and being proposed in the context of the “Energy 2020 communication”. Normative scenario aiming on 85 % energy related CO2 emission reduction by 2050, in particular by means of energy efficiency options.

221

Annex II Overview of potential wedges for in-detail analysis II.I Introduction This paper presents a first choice of energy efficiency “wedges”. According to S. Pacala und R. Socolow wedges are subdivisions of necessary energy savings into comparable units (Pacala, 2004). These units are sufficiently small so that they represent a single technology or a selection of technologies that can be tackled with well-defined policy packages but still represent ambitious levels of savings. The aim of the subdivision is to identify different options for action and to show that the target can be achieved. Figure II-1: Definition of “wedges”


The final selection of wedges once made by the client (Federal Ministry of Environment) will determine which wedges will be analysed in further detail in the context of work packages 1.3 to 3. The document mainly consists of a table presenting a larger number of potential wedges covering different sectors (section II.III). Beforehand a short overview of the historic evolution of final energy demand in EU27 is given. The main arguments for the wedges chosen are summarized in section II.IV.

222

II.II Historic development of primary and final energy demand in the EU27 

According to Figure II-2 both primary energy and final energy demand seem to saturate in the EU27 since a few years. The total final energy demand increased still a bit before 2004 from 1,100 up to nearly 1,200 Mtoe but now seems to have reached a plateau. The 2009 values (not shown here) are considerably lower due to the impacts of the economic crisis. This saturation is a bit less emphasised when looking at the data corrected for annual climate variations and needs to be confirmed in the coming years.



While according to the PRIMES-2007 projections (European Commission, 2008) both, final and primary energy, are still on the rise up to 2030 (Table II-1), they are projected to stagnate in that period in the most recent PRIMES projections (European Commission, 2010) confirming that a decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption is taking place.

Table II-1:

Projections of primary and final energy of the EU27 according to the PRIMES projections

EU27: Baseline 2007 Mtoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Gross Inland Consumption

1712

1811

1852

1929

1971

2003

2007

Final Energy Demand

1103

1162

1234

1300

1346

1381

1404

Mtoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Gross Inland Consumption

1723

1826

1767

1810

1828

1823

1813

Final Energy Demand

1113

1174

1169

1211

1229

1227

1216

EU27: Baseline 2009

Source: (European Commission, 2008), (European Commission, 2010)

223 Figure II-2: Total final and primary energy demand in EU27

Final/primary energy consumption [Mtoe]

1900 1800 1700 1600 Total primary consumption Total primary consumption with climatic corrections Total final consumption Total final consumption with climatic corrections

1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008


Figure II-3:

Primary energy demand by type of energy carrier in EU27

100% Industrial Solid Waste

80%

Other Renewable Energies (wind, hydro, solar thermal, PV, geothermal) Renewable Energies (biogas) Renewable Energies (biofuels)

60%

Renewable Energies (solid biomass/wastes) Electrical Energy (net imports/exports)

40%

Nuclear Energy Gas

20%

Crude oil and Petroleum Products Solid fuels (lignite and dervatives)

0% 2000

2001

2002

-20%

Source: (Eurostat, 2011)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Solid fuels (hard coal and dervatives)

224 The split of the primary energy consumption by energy carrier (Figure II-3) shows that in the period 2000-2008 the share of renewable energy sources has been increasing from 5.7 to 8.4 %, mainly at the expense of solid fuels, petroleum products and nuclear energy. Figure II-4 to Figure II-7 show the historic evolution of final energy demand in EU27 from 2000 to 2008 by sector. Figure II-4: Total final energy demand in EU27 by sector

Source: Eurostat

The total final energy demand is distributed on three main sectors: •

Industry sector (318 Mtoe in 2008, equal to 27 % of total final energy demand): the bulk of this energy amount (about 60 %) is consumed by iron and steel, chemical, non-metallic mineral as well as paper and pulp industry. All the industry branches show a constant energy demand over the past years. Only for 2008, a slight decrease in demand can be observed due to the economic crisis. This is further accentuated in 2009.

•

Transport sector (374 Mtoe, equal to 32 %): the main share of final energy consumption (more than 80 %) arises from road transport. Consequently the main final energy carrier in this sector consists of oil derivatives such as diesel and petrol. Over the past years the road transport sector experienced a further increase of about 9 % compared to the year 2000. It is unclear yet whether the saturation observed since 2007 is due to the high oil prices and will be a lasting effect.

•

Household, services and other sectors (477 Mtoe, equal to 41 %): the household sector is the most energy consuming sector in 2008 due to high

225 energy demand for residential space heating (about two thirds of all energy consumed in the residential sector) and high electricity demand in the service sector. Fluctuations in the final energy demand are mainly linked to fluctuations in the demand for space heating due to climatic reasons (e.g. 2007 as a particularly hot year in the European average). Figure II-5: Final energy demand in the industry sector in EU27


Figure II-6:

Final energy demand in the transport sector in EU27


226 Figure II-7:

Final energy demand in the household, service and other sectors in EU27


II.III Selection of wedges In this section a number of wedges are presented. They present the basis for a final choice of wedges that shall be discussed in further detail within the next work packages. The wedges shown in the table were preselected according to the discussions held with the client on November 8th 2010. All wedges are grouped according to the different sectors (see first column). For every wedge the main features and technologies are shortly summarised in the second column. The middle columns provide arguments in favour of (“pro” column) or against the selection of the specific wedge (“contra” column). Wedges highlighted in light grey are a recommendation of choice made by Fraunhofer ISI balancing the arguments of the “pro” and “contra” columns for this wedge. Additional charts show historic evolutions or forecasts of key indicators (such as final energy demand, value added) for specific sectors or subsectors, in order to make the arguments mentioned in the columns more comprehensible. The forecasts originate from the baseline scenario of the PRIMES 2009 calculations (European Commission, 2010), realized for the European Commission. They show a future development under the condition that no further policies are included except national and EU policies implemented until April 2009.

227 In order to estimate the significance of a wedge, a first guess of the technical final energy saving potential and the corresponding primary energy saving potential 56 by 2030 is compared to the final energy demand in 2008 (last three columns). The data provided is based on the “Study on the Energy Saving Potentials in EU Member States, Candidate Countries and EEA Countries”, published by Fraunhofer ISI in cooperation with ISIS (Italy), Enerdata (France), Wuppertal Institut (Germany) and TU Vienna (Austria) (ISI, 2009a).  The potentials presented in this overview are based on existing studies. They are a rough first estimate of technical potentials. A detailed analysis of the potentials and the assumptions behind the different studies was only carried out in the framework of work package 1.3. The respective results can be found in chapter 4. However one should keep in mind that the potential calculations are based on certain scenario assumptions. Even technical potentials are limited by “natural” boundaries for the diffusion of single technologies (e.g. reinvestment cycle are kept as they are with exceptions such as enhanced refurbishment of buildings). For that reason every potential designation is based on an underlying technology mix. Further information on this topic can be found in section 4.1.

56 The primary energy demand is calculated on the base of an average energy conversion efficiency

of 40% for electricity generating units. Since the composition of the transformation sector is not analysed in detail, this conversion calculation is a very simplified estimate.

228

II.III.I Buildings Sector/ Subsector

1

Building envelope (1)

Heating and cooling systems (1)

Hot water (1)

Features/Characteristics

- energy efficient envelope of existing and new buildings: => refurbishment of existing dwellings => new buildings with nearly zero energy standard - generation of space heat - use of heat pumps, distributed renewables, energy efficient boilers

- generation of space heat - use of heat pumps, distributed renewables, energy efficient boilers

Pro

Contra

- very high energy saving potential - increasing number of dwellings over the past years - high potential - increasing cooling demand in Southern European countries - increasing number of dwellings over the past years - medium potential but rather homogeneous technology group

- numerous policies already implemented => difficult to assess the effect of additional measures 57 - difficult to define general requirements for all EU countries due to different climatic conditions - difficult to make a clear cut between energy efficiency technologies (such as more efficient boilers) and RES technologies (such as solar thermal heating) - numerous different technologies can be applied according to the size and the use of the building - difficult to make a clear cut between energy efficiency technologies (such as more efficient boilers) and RES technologies (such as solar thermal heating)

Approximate FED in 2008 (Odyssee database)

200 Mtoe (space heat households) 77 Mtoe (space heat services) 32 Mtoe (space heat industry)

42 Mtoe (households)

Technical FE saving potential by 2030

Technical PE savingpotential by 2030 (3)

160 Mtoe (2)

173 Mtoe

57 Mtoe

62 Mtoe

12 Mtoe (households)

17 Mtoe

(1) It could be difficult to split off heating systems and hot water from the building envelope (the Energy performance Directive for Buildings is na integrative approach to the buildings...). An alternative could be to split by sector (households, services, industry) (2) Includes existing stock and new dwellings in the household and services sector Source: (Odyssee, 2011)

(3) Share of electricity for the given use as in 2008. Conversion with a factor of 2.5.

57 Recast of the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (2010/31/EU), setting up minimum energy performance standards for new buildings and major renovations, with regular updating of these standards.

229

II.III.II Appliances and IT Sector/ Subsector

2


Pro

Contra

Lighting

- concerns all kind of lighting - replacement of conventional incandescent bulbs by energy saving bulbs, LEDs/OLEDs

Large household appliances

- household appliances such as refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dish washer, dryer

- clearly distinguishable

- different policies already implemented 58 - FED forecast is supposed to decrease after 2015

- includes computers, monitors, servers, router, laptops, screens

- clearly distinguishable - increasing demand due to further diffusion of additional appliances and increasing significance of the tertiary sector

- relatively low potential

Green IT

- clearly distinguishable




106 Mtoe (electricity demand of households and tertiary excl. electric space heating), of which large HH appliances excl. TV 16 Mtoe; TV 4.3 Mtoe; other IT around 9 Mtoe

19 Mtoe

48 Mtoe

HH (excl. TV): 6 Mtoe

14 Mtoe

HH+TE 7 Mtoe (incl. TV)

16 Mtoe

60

270

50

260

40

250

30

240

20

230

10

220

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Heating and cooling (incl. cooking)

2015

2020

2025

2030

FED - appliances and lighting [Mtoe]

FED - heating and cooling [Mtoe]

Final energy demand forecast residential sector 280

Note: electric cooking and heating is included in the category heating/cooling. Therefore differences with the figures in the table

Electric appliances and lighting

Source: (European Commission, 2010)


58 such as the EU Energy Labelling Directive (2010/30/EU) establishing an energy consumption labelling scheme that displays the relative energy efficiency of a product when offered for sale or rent, and the EU Ecodesign Directive for energy using products (2005/32/EC) that establishes a framework under which manufacturers of energy-using products will, at the design stage, be obliged to reduce the energy consumption and other negative environmental impacts occurring throughout the product life cycle

230

II.III.III Sector/ Subsector

Industry sector – Cross-cutting technologies Features/Characteristics

Pro

Contra

Electric drives

- motors used in industry (fans, pump systems, cooling devices, compressed air systems) with a focus on the motor itself

4


- holistic system management approach, considering all the elements of a technical system

- high potential

- difficult to quantify the potential - difficult to distinguish the exact system borders in the different applications

5

Steam / hot water generator

- CHP - energy efficiency improvement

- high potential

- interference with other technologies - risk of interference with heat generation from RES

Industrial dryers

- energy efficiency improvement - new drying processes

- medium potential

- difficult to quantify the potential

Surface technologies

- includes reduction of surface friction, self-cleaning surfaces, corrosion and deterioration protection

- might become an important technology in the long run

- high R&D still needed => deployment only in the latter decades - difficult to quantify the potential

3


- wide spread technology - high potential



2 Mtoe

5 Mtoe

17 Mtoe

43 Mtoe

25 Mtoe

25 Mtoe

66 Mtoe


73 Mtoe

231

II.III.IV Industry sector – Process technologies Sector/ Subsector


Pro

Contra




36 Mtoe

6 Mtoe (4)

11 Mtoe (4)

- high energy saving potential (compared to energy demand)

Paper and pulp production

- energy efficient drying and refining processes, integrated pulp and paper mills, heat recovery

7

Iron- and steel production

- energetic optimisation of the blast furnace, waste heat recovery

- constantly important value added over the next years - final energy demand second most important

- limited energy savings potentials

60 Mtoe

5 Mtoe (4)

10 Mtoe (4)

8

Cement industry

- optimised process - waste heat recovery - shift to best available technologies (BAT)

- third highest final energy demand - relatively constant production and value added

- limited energy savings potentials

43 Mtoe

1 Mtoe (4)

2 Mtoe (4)

Chemical industry

- application of best practice technologies (BPT) - process intensification/integration - CHP, recycling, energy recovery - new separation technologies, optimize catalytic processes

- high potential - sector with highest final energy demand - relatively high value added

- huge number of technologies and processes that are used => difficult to assess the potential - several measures need much further R&D efforts before producing substantial savings

55 Mtoe

1 Mtoe (4)

2 Mtoe (4)

6

- high share of electricity consumption

(4) Excludes potentials from CHP and cross-cutting technologies


Source: European Commission, 2010)

232

II.III.V Transport sector Sector/ Subsector

Features/ Characteristics

Pro

Contra

- high potential - road transports represents bulk of final energy demand in transport

9

Road transport – technical changes

10

Road transport – behavioural changes

- modal shift - change of behaviour

- high potential

- difficult to assess the potential from behaviour changing measures

e-Mobility

- shift from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles

- increasing significance within the next years/decades, since numerous R&D projects were initiated

- net efficiency improvements on the primary energy demand side are not necessarily guaranteed (for a detailed see 4.2.12) - primary energy savings depend strongly on the power mix and the conversion efficiency of power plants => subject of power generation risks to be mixed up with RES topic

- technical improvements




72 Mtoe

72 Mtoe

58 Mtoe

58 Mtoe

304 Mtoe


10 Mtoe (10% share of car stock electric cars; 50% renewables in power mix)

233

II.III.VI Conversion sector Sector/ Subsector

11

Energy conversion, transmission and distribution efficiency

Features/ Characteristics

- efficiency improvements of conventional power plants by optimised control - efficiency improvement in power and heat transport systems (electricity grids: temperature monitoring, HVDC grids)

Contra

Approximate FED in 2008 (Eurostat)

- decreasing demand for additional conventional power capacity makes analysis less necessary

Fuel input to thermal power plants: 412 Mtoe

Pro

- mainly in Eastern Europe the average conversion efficiency of power plants is relatively low => high energy saving potential - bulk of electricity grid needs to be renewed within the next decade

- CCS may drive the consumption of those plants up - difficult to assess the energy saving potential of HVDC or other grid types - risks to be mixed up with power generation from RES

(5) Out of the 93 Mtoe around 50 Mtoe are in refineries which increasing energy consumption trends due to sulphur legislation for transport fuels

(6) It is assumed that new power plants will be built according to the best efficiency available. No potential from using gas instead of coal power plants is included as it is assumed that the choices among fuels occur autonomously. From the fossil fired plants only around 1/3 will still be running in 2030. It is assumed that around 4% of the fuel inputs can be saved, e.g. through improved regulation of the plants with IT technologies

Energy sector consumption: 93 Mtoe (5) Grid losses: 26 Mtoe

Technical FE saving potential by 2030 Fuel input to thermal power plants: (6 Mtoe) Energy sector consumption: small Grid losses: 6 Mtoe

Technical PE savingpotential by 2030 (3) Fuel input to thermal power plants: 6 Mtoe Energy sector consumption: small Grid losses: 14 Mtoe

234

II.IV Summary of potential estimation A short overview of all the wedges presented in the sections II.III.I to II.III.VI can be found in Table II-2, sorted by decreasing technical final energy saving potential. In the following we provide a summary of the arguments for the selection and raise a few questions for further discussion. The energy saving potential of the buildings envelope is the biggest one among all sectors and is recommended. Second follows the heating and cooling systems in the building sector. However this wedge is not recommended for a further analysis since the scope of energy efficiency technologies that can be applied in this sector is large (large number of heating systems). Moreover, it is difficult to distinguish explicitly efficiency technologies, considering RES as alternative technologies that might be deployed in this area. This also holds for sanitary hot water preparation in the residential sector.  It may, however be discussed in how far distributed renewables should be considered as being part of the wedges.  It may further be discussed, in view of the fact that the Energy Performance Directive for Buildings works on a primary energy integrative basis (the building including the heating system is considered as a unit) whether it makes more sense to split the two wedges rather by sector (residential, service sector and industrial sector buildings) and concentrate for example on the first or the first two. In contrast, most of the other high potential technologies, promising energy saving between 10 and 90 Mtoe, are recommended to be further examined. Not only is there a high energy saving potential, but also those are widely spread over different sectors which is an important driver for this choice. In order to avoid large saving efforts from single sectors, the wedges cover more or less equally the different main energy consuming sectors: buildings envelope in residential, tertiary and industry sector (170 Mtoe technical final energy saving potential by 2030), transport sector (160 Mtoe), industry sector (71 Mtoe). A rough energy saving estimation for the energy conversion and transport sector was carried out which showed that the major focus could be on electricity transport and distribution losses. This wedge is recommended due in order to have one wedge on the transformation sector and in order to show its limited importance.  This sector may still be completed with estimates concerning district heating losses. However, district heating is seen as a technology with limited scope given the spread of near-zero energy houses.

235

Table II-2:

Overview of energy efficiency wedges, sorted by decreasing saving potential (estimated numbers; entries highlighted in grey are recommended by Fraunhofer ISI for a more detailed analysis within the framework of work package 1.3) Approx. FE saving potential [Mtoe] 160

Approx. PE saving potential [Mtoe] 173

Road transport – technical improvements

72

72

Road transport – behavioural changes

58

58

Buildings


57

62

Industry – cross-cutting technologies

Energy efficient dryer and steam / hot water generator

25

25

Appliances and IT

Lighting (in residential, tertiary and industry sector)

19

48

Industry – crosscutting technologies

System optimisation of electric drive systems

17

43

Buildings

Sanitary hot water

12

17

Energy conversion

Energy conversion, transport and distribution

(12)

20

Industry – process technologies

Paper and pulp production

6

11

Appliances and IT

Green IT (in residential and tertiary sector)

7

16

Appliances and IT

Big household appliances

6

14


Iron and steel production

5

10

Industry – cross-cutting technologies

Energy efficient electric drives

2

5


Cement industry

1

2


Chemical industry

1

2

Sector

Technologies

Buildings

Building envelope

Transport Transport

Transport

e-Mobility

n/a

Industry – crosscutting technologies

Surface technologies

n/a

Sum – selected wedges Sum – all wedges

375 (32 % of the final energy 2008 excl. the conversion efficiency wedge) 460 (39 % of the final energy 2008 excl. the conversion efficiency wedge)

422 (23 % of the primary energy 2008) 578 (32 % of the primary energy 2008)

236  It is supposed that new power plants will rely on renewable energy sources or that they will be replaced by fossil-fired plants featuring the maximum possible efficiency for a given fuel. The fuel choice is considered to be market driven. To be further debated. All proposed wedges sum up to a total technical energy saving potential of 441 Mtoe by 2030, or 429 Mtoe if the conversion wedge is excluded. The latter figure corresponds to a 37 % decrease in final energy demand compared to 2008 (1169 Mtoe according to Eurostat). If all wedges are included this percentage raises to 47 %). In primary energy terms the reduction by the technical potentials is 30 % in 2030 respectively proposed for the wedges and 39 % for all wedges considered. In view of 2050 these wedges may therefore be suitable steps to achieve the required 50 % reduction. The reduction is smaller in primary energy terms due to the fact that there are only small options for energy efficiency on the supply side and that most of the improvement would come from renewables and from the autonomous replacement of old with new power plants. However, quite a substantial contribution to the reduction of primary energy would come from the penetration of renewables in the power sector given that most renewables are counted with an efficiency of 100 % in the power supply.

237

Annex III Methodology of the economic potential of CHP plants In the following the calculation methodology for the determination of the economic potential of combined and power plants is explained. As already mentioned in section 4.2.7, the additional investments for a CHP plant are equal to zero or even below, compared to the construction of two SHP plants with the similar capacity. However, there are other factors that influence the costeffectiveness of a CHP plant: •

fuel mix of the CHP plant

•

fuel mix of the SHP plant that would have been built instead

•

fuel prices

•

energy conversion efficiency of the CHP and the SHP plant (which are directly influencing the final price for the electricity and heat produced).

Table III-1: Fuel mixes in the different CHP scenarios

Scenario

New SHP plants displaced

New CHP plants built instead

Energy carrier

Share

Energy carrier

Share

1

Coal

100%

Gas

100%

2

Coal + CCS (beyond 2030)

100%

Gas

100%

3

Gas

100%

Gas

100%

Gas

100%

Coal + CCS 4

5

(beyond 2030)

50%

Gas

50%

Coal + CCS (beyond 2030)

50%

Gas

20%

Gas

50%

Biomass

80%

238 Five scenarios have been analysed that vary the parameters mentioned above in order to trace out the whole range of specific costs/savings through energy efficiency improvement of CHP plants as well as further CHP diffusion. Table III-1 shows the assumptions regarding the fuel mix. The fuel prices are supposed to develop in all scenarios as mentioned in section 4.1.2. For CHP as well as for SHP plants, a steady conversion efficiency increase is supposed to occur. Only for coal power plants equipped with CCS, efficiency drops instantaneously by 2030, when the technology is newly applied, but rises again afterwards due to technological learning. Figure III-1 summarises the results of the parameter variation. As can be clearly seen, CHP features the highest cost reduction through energy savings in scenario 3. This is due to the fact, that the fuel costs for SHP and CHP plants are the same since the same fuel is used, but CHP benefits from its increasing efficiency improvement. A less favourable situation is drafted in scenario 5. CHP plants initially benefit from low biomass prices that are rising the attractiveness of investing in CHP plants. At the same time, new SHP plants become progressively competitive, given the fact that the coal price does not experience the same price increase as gas and biomass. The introduction of CCS with its accompanying conversion efficiency drop has only a minor effect on the overall cost-effectiveness of CHP. Scenario 5 is supposed to be the most likely one. Thus it is used in all further economic potential summation on a higher aggregated level (cf. section 4.4.1 and 5.1). Scenario 4, 2 and 1 are drafting step-wise less favourable framework conditions for the diffusion of CHP. In scenario 4, CHP loses its winning margin from scenario 5 since the original biomass share is replaced by additional more expensive gas. The situation is even deteriorating in scenario 2, when SHP plants entirely run on low-cost coal. Only the introduction of CCS by 2030 permits no further cost increase for CHP compared to the coal-fired separate generation of heat and electricity. If no CCS is applied on the SHP plants (scenario 1), the price spread between coal and gas is further rising, making an investment in CHP plants not attractive at all, if no financial incentives are set by politics.

239 Figure III-1: Cost curves for the different CHP scenarios


240

Annex IV Energy savings through electric vehicles The energy saving results mentioned in the fact sheet on e-Mobility (cf. 4.2.12), are based on various assumptions that can be distinguished into two types. The first type of assumption is dealing with the specific energy savings (i.e. unit of energy saved per km or mile) of an electric or plug-in hybrid car compared to a conventional car with internal combustion engine. It considers the entire energy conversion chain from the raw energy carrier over the actual “tank” to the wheel. The calculation methodology of the specific savings as well as the underlying assumptions is discussed in Annex IV.I. The second type of assumption deals with the multipliers that permit to deduce the overall energy savings from the specific ones. These assumptions depend on the scenario definition and are listed in Annex IV.II.

IV.I Detailed calculation methodology As mentioned before, the e-Mobility analysis is largely based on a life cycle assessment study carried out by Fraunhofer ISI and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH (ISI, 2010). Hence, only the main assumption and methodology is explained in the following. Any further details can be found in the underlying study. The fuel consumption of the various drive concepts and car types (apart from medium-sized passenger cars and LDVs, the Fraunhofer ISI report also analysed compact cars, buses and inland water vessels) was carried out by analysing the conversion efficiency of the final energy supply chain (i.e. the Well-to-Tank chain) and an assessment of the fuel consumption and potential savings of the actual drive train (i.e. the Tank-to-Wheel chain).

Well-to-Tank The car fuels considered in this analysis are gasoline, diesel as well as electricity based on the EU27 electricity generation mix. The average efficiency of the respective production pathways is shown in Figure IV-1. The refining process for gasoline and diesel does not differ between 2015 and 2030 and features an efficiency of 88 % and 86 % respectively.

241

Figure IV-1: Mean energy conversion efficiencies for the Well-to-Tank chain

Source: (ISI, 2010), adapted

Regarding the European power generation mix an adaptation of the fuel shares and average conversion efficiencies was conducted for the time 2015 until 2050, referring to the EU27 electricity generation mix from the Trans-CSP scenario which was provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR, 2006), cf. Figure IV-2. The average conversion efficiency of the European electricity mix is supposed to improve from 47 % in 2015 up to 55 % in 2030 and 75% in 2050. This is related to the rising share of RES and efficient gas power plants. Grid losses at the 0.4 kV voltage level are estimated to the electricity transmitted by approximately 5 %. Particularly high grid losses for an increasing share of electricity imports, e.g. from Northern Africa, were not considered.

242 Figure IV-2: Electricity generation by energy carrier, TRANS-CSP scenario, EU27

Source: Based on (DLR, 2006)

Tank-to-Wheel For the different car types and drive concepts, individual average fuel consumptions were assumed, as can be seen in Figure IV-3. For gasoline fuelled passenger cars, the average fuel consumption is supposed to decline from approximately 5.9 l/100 km in 2015 to 4.5 l/100 km in 2030 59. Hybrid electric vehicles, that are supposed to substitute new gasoline cars by 2030, feature savings of 15 % compared to pure ICE driven cars. PHEVs are assumed to cover 60 % of the overall fuel consumption with electricity. Their efficiency is further increasing between 2015 and 2030, whereas the efficiency of electric vehicles is supposed to remain constant. This is due to the assumption that the conventional drive train experiences further efficiency improvements while the electric drive train has already attained its maximum. It is obvious that this is a strong simplification, since further improvement is supposed to occur, above all in the field of battery technologies. Nevertheless, this assumption can be justified against the background of a rather conservative assessment approach. For the time beyond 2030 no further efficiency are supposed to occur – neither for conventional nor for electric cars.

59 Assuming a conversion factor of 9.01 kWh/l of gasoline and of 9.96 kWh/l of diesel, as published by the German association “Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen“, (AGEB, 2012)

243 With regard to the determination of the specific fuel savings, BEV and PHEV are supposed to substitute gasoline fuelled cars with a conventional ICE drive until 2015. Afterwards, HEV technology is assumed to be the predominating drive concept which serves as basis comparison. Figure IV-3: Tank-to-Wheel energy consumption of various car types


Well-to-Wheel Figure IV-4 depicts the specific well-to-wheel energy consumption of a mediumclass passenger car. As can be clearly seen, the PHEV is favourable in comparison with the conventional ICE car due to a 60 % electricity share of the total consumption. By 2015, the combination of gasoline and electricity based on the European electricity mix leads to a reduction of overall energy demand of about one third. It is assumed that battery research will not progress as much as it is necessary in order to conceive battery stacks with a sufficient storage capacity for long distances. Thus, until 2015, BEV technology is only supposed to enter the compact car market due to the characteristically short distance rides, whereas the PHEV configuration does not represent a realistic option. By 2030, the spread of energy consumption among the different drive concepts declines due to further efficiency improvements of conventional engines by up to 33 % compared to 2015. This phenomenon is also linked to the fact that gasoline cars are supposed to feature a hybrid drive train as standard configuration, reduc-

244 ing the fuel consumption by roughly 15 % simply through energy recuperation. In 2030, BEV technology has reached the level of technological maturity to be applied in medium-sized cars. PHEVs experience a further improvement of the overall efficiency of 15 to 20 %. This improvement is related to improvements of the conventional ICE engine whereas the electric drive train is not supposed to undergo further improvements. However, the increase in the overall conversion efficiency of the European electricity generation mix due to an increase in power generation from renewable energy sources and high efficient gas power plants also benefits electric cars. This effect persists until 2050, further reducing the energy demand of electric vehicles whereas the efficiency of conventional drive technologies is supposed to stagnate at the level of the year 2030. Figure IV-4: Energy consumption of passenger cars with different drive concepts (well-to-wheel)


IV.II Scenario assumptions and results In order to calculate the final and primary energy savings presented in 4.2.12, assumptions regarding the specific consumptions of future vehicles and the evolution of the stock turnover need to be made. Regarding the stock turnover of the European car fleet a differentiation of two scenarios was carried out: a moderate scenario, aligned with a study from the EWI

245 institute (EWI, 2010) as well as an Ambitious scenario which was inspired by a study from Fraunhofer ISI (ISI, 2008).

Table IV-1: Scenario assumptions for the Moderate and the Ambitious scenario

Moderate scenario Total car stock in 2050 Share of electrification in 2050 Average yearly mileage per vehicle

Ambitious scenario

280,000,000 (ISI, 2009c) 30 %

68 %

14,000 km (EWI, 2010)

Useful life time

12 years


For both scenarios, apart from the data shown in Table IV-1, the following assumptions were made: •

Only passenger road transport is considered

•

All passenger cars feature the specific consumption of mid-range cars

•

Battery electric as well as plug-in hybrid vehicles are supplied by electricity from the European electricity mix which is based on the Trans-CSP study of DLR (DLR, 2006).

The energy savings through electric passenger cars were determined by considering a certain share of the newly registered cars being electric vehicles that would stepwise replace new conventional cars. Multiplying the number of new electric vehicles that replace the respective number of conventional vehicles in one year by the average mileage and the average fuel savings of this year permits the determination of the yearly savings through the new electric cars in this year. Summing up the savings of all new electric cars over the total period under review allows an estimation of the overall energy saving potential, see Table IV-2.

246 Table IV-2: Assumptions and results of the two e-Mobility scenarios Moderate scenario

Ambitious scenario

2020

2030

2050

2020

2030

2050

Total number of BEVs [M]

0.2

2.3

41.8

0.1

0.6

93.0

Total number of PHEVs [M]

0.2

2.3

41.8

3.4

30.4

97.7

Final energy savings [Mtoe]

0.1

1.0

15.9

0.8

4.9

35.9

Primary energy savings [Mtoe]

0.1

0.7

15.6

0.7

4.2

35.5

Related electricity demand [TWh]

0.6

7.5

140.4

4.3

39.5

318.3


Given the fact that the electric vehicles are partially or fully fuelled by electricity, an increase of electricity demand will occur (cf. Figure IV-5). In the Moderate scenario the additional electricity demand will equal some 8 TWh by 2030, whereas the Ambitious scenario makes the demand grow to 40 TWh. Compared to the net electricity consumption in 2030 in the PRIMES baseline scenario of 3517 TWh, the electric vehicles would account for some additional 0.2 % and 1.1 %. For 2050, electricity demand rises up to 140 TWh and 319 TWh respectively. Figure IV-5: Electricity demand through electric vehicles


247

Annex V Electricity saving potentials A particular view is taken in this section on the issue of electricity savings and the question how the savings relate to the electricity consumption pathway of the PRIMES 2009 baseline as well as the consumption pathway outlined in the “EU Long-term scenarios 2050” project, that is likewise carried out by Fraunhofer ISI on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. Figure V-1: Electricity saving potential compared to the PRIMES 2009 baseline

Source: (European Commission, 2011a), Fraunhofer ISI

In order to determine the remaining gross electricity consumption, the following calculation procedure was run through: •

In a first step, the PRIMES 2009 baseline was extrapolated for the time beyond 2030 using the electricity consumption indicator from the ADAM reference scenario (ISI, 2009b).

•

Given the fact that the ADAM 450 ppm scenario (ISI, 2009c) which represents the basis for scenario A of the EU Long-term Scenarios 2050 study, considers a more significant share of electric vehicles and heat pumps 60,

60 In 2050, the ADAM 450ppm scenario considers some additional 60 TWh of electricity consumption for ca. 23 Mio additional electric vehicles and about 68 TWh of additional electricity consumption for heat pumps in the households and tertiary sector.

248 the baseline consumption was adjusted by adding the respective additional electricity consumption. •

For the period up to 2030 the electricity saving potential that was determined in (ISI, 2009a) was deduced from the gross electricity consumption reported in (PRIMES, 2009), giving the “remaining electricity demand”.

•

For the years 2030 up to 2050, the electricity saving potential was determined by carrying out an additional calculation: by means of indexing, the “remaining electricity demand” from the step before was extrapolated, using the trajectory from the ADAM-400ppm scenario (ISI, 2009c). The difference of this time-series and the extrapolated baseline from step one resulted in the electricity saving potential until 2050.

Figure V-1 shows that if substantial electricity saving measures are undertaken, the gross electricity consumption in the EU-27 by 2050 can be reduced to less than 2500 TWh which is 9 % below the value of the year 2000. This is in line with the electricity consumption of scenario A presented in the “EU Long-term scenarios 2050” study.

249

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257

Glossary

English term

Meaning

German term

Blast furnace

Metallurgical furnace used for

Hochofen

smelting to produce industrial metals, mainly iron. Combined heat and power

Simultaneous generation of heat

Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung

(CHP)

and electricity by a heat engine

(KWK)

or power station. Compact fluorescent lamp

Fluorescent lamp, designed to

Kompaktstoffleuchte,

(CFL)

replace the conventional incan-

Energiesparlampe

descent lamp. Electric arc furnace (EAF)

Furnace that heats charged ma-

Elektrolichtbogenofen

terial by means of an electric arc. Electrical ballast

Device intended to limit the

Vorschaltgerät

amount of current in an electric circuit. Electronically

commutated

motor (ECM)

Synchronous

electric

motor

powered by direct-current (DC)

Bürstenloser

Gleich-

strommotor

electricity and having electronic commutation systems, instead og mechanical commutators and brushes. FED

Final energy demand

Endenergieverbrauch

GHG emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions; the

Treibhausgas-

only relevant emissions from the

Emissionen

energy

sector

comprise

CO2

(carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous dioxide) Halogen lamp

Incandescent lamp with a tung-

Halogen-(Glüh-)Lampe

sten filament contained within an inert gas Incandescent lamp

Lamp that emits light by heating a metal filament wire to a high

Glühlampe

258 temperature until it glows. Light emitting diode (LED)

Semiconductor light source.

Leuchtdiode (LED)

Renewable energy sources

Energy sources based on natural

Erneuerbare

(RES)

resources such as sunlight, wind,

giequellen (EE)

rain, tides, and geothermal heat. Top gas

By-product of blast furnaces that

Gichtgas

is generated when iron ore is reduced with coke to metallic iron. V-belt transmission

A drive belt with a V-shaped cross section, for transmission of low to moderate forces; typically used to drive generators, water pumps, air pumps, air conditioner

compressor

units

power steering pumps.

and

V-Riemen

Ener-