Control of National Economies In the Age of Information Technology ...

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INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS

DECEMBER 2011

VOL 3, NO 8

Control of National Economies In the Age of Information Technology and Dynamism: A theoretical Perspective of Economic Cybernetics

Dr. B. C. Asiegbu Department of Information Management Technology, Federal University of Technology, Owerri

Abstract This paper described the theoretical perspective of economic cybernetics of controlling national economies in the age of information technology and dynamism. It identifies the tools of economic cybernetics and described how they can be used in maintaining control processes of movements and conversion of information in the structural and functional components of national economics. The paper relied upon systematic approach of Lenin and Karl Max. The paper recommended that each national economy should establish its economic cybernetic system for a planned, balanced and proportional socio-economic development as a basis of solving common national economic problems due to the instability of open systems, uncertainties (chaos), interdependence and autocatalytic process. This is necessary because each national economy exhibits the characteristics of open system, chaos, self regulation and interdependence. Using systematic approach of Lenin and Karl Max, the paper identified tools of economic cybernetic system. It also established a common economic- cybernetic system of controlling national economies and recommended that each national economy should establish its specific system. Keywords: Control ; National Economies; Age ; Information Technology ; Dynamism; Theoretical Perspective ; Economic Cybernetics 1. Introduction The national economy in its complex dynamism from the inspiration of Jaafari (2003) exhibits the following characteristics: • Open systems. The economy in its complexity is composed of a complex web of interesting open systems that are subject to instability, and are changing constantly within an internet-like network of interconnections and interrelationships. • Chaos. The economy in its complexity is affected by uncertainties that are beyond long-term contemplation and thus, defy the classical management approach of orderly planning and control. Economic systems change when the conditions are rightly following an autocatalytic process, • Self-regulation. The economy in its complexity requires self-regulation (especially in a free enterprise economy) following the autocatalytic process, leading to the need of autonomous, self-steering economic units, based on insights and competence of the factors, as well as synergy, flexibility and teamwork; • Interdependence. The growth of interdependence makes it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to make any prediction on the basis of previous experience. Thus, it is important to avoid development and use of a linear reductionist model for forecasting the behaviour of future events. These characteristics illustrate, the rising complexity in the economy that stem from rapid technological, social, economical and global change, considered by many as irreversible (Geyer, 1998, London, 1996). Cybernetic as a science of control process in COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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complex dynamic systems has shown that systematic change is not a mechanistic, progressive and linear phenomenon whose causes and effects can be clearly be isolated. Cybernetics has now developed to the extent it is applied to many fields, such as natural and social sciences and management. For example, Tyson (1998) argues that such sciences that study complexity have changed the worldview of science in all spheres, including social sciences. There is a growing body of literature on this subject and a number of internet portals serve the interests of the research community (e.g http://www.brint.com/systems/htm). However, most traditional management literature has focused on control as a means of compliance instead of self-regulation and self-control and extraneous rewards and incentives instead of intrinsic motivation. However, a better understanding of autonomous human behaviour underpinning individual, group and social interactions is required for appreciating the motions of self-adaptive and emergent systems. Cybernetics is the answer of human knowledge and technical practice to social need of control and organization by precise methods. In the national economy the need to control and organize became right clear with the rise in the complexity of national economic management. This called for a public movement for increasing efficiency of management. Progress in the economy and in the methods of economic planning called insistently for better management. The problem of management is closely linked with another important problem that of information. To achieve good management one must master information processes, theoretically and practically. The situation as regards information in many countries has become quite complicated. The normal functioning of many countries is now impossible without processing enormous amount of information in quite specific, and usually very short periods of time. For example, tens of thousands of different types of intricately connected indices are used in the management of modern enterprises; let alone larger economic, production or administrative units. This paper is therefore geared towards describing how economic cybernetics as a branch of cybernetics study the structural and functional components of national economies as complex dynamic systems in which processes of control are maintained by movements and conversions of information. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides the conceptual and theoretical framework on controlling national economies in the age of information technology and dynamism. Section 3 discusses the methods of economic cybernetics in planning and controlling national economies in the age of information technology and dynamism. Section 4 describes a potential economic -cybernetic system of planning socio-economic development. Section 5 concludes the paper. 2. Conceptual and Theoretical Framework of controlling National Economies Knowledge–based economy is the manifestation of the accelerated technological social and economic change embodied with complex economy. While change has been in progress since the dawn of creation, it has seldom been felt so drastically as in current times (Geyer, 1998, London, 1996, Umo, 2006, Dahlman, 2005). In the past, the rate of change was rather slow, so in a person’s lifetime (Change was virtually) imperceptible. But now, in a lifetime, one experiences significant change influencing all aspects of life. According to Geyer (1998) change is not only here to stay, but the rate of change itself is increasing, also as a result of increasing global interdependence in all imaginable areas of human activity, and shows no signs of ever slowing down. This leads not only to change COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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in existing procedures, institutions, ideologies, etc; but also to the emergence of completely new phenomena in the present information age. Modern economy has come a long way from that which existed 200 years ago at the dawn of the industrial revolution (Kelly, 1997). The rate of change will accelerate even further as boundaries between national and global economies merge and as the free trading blocs evolve into integrated social and economic communities such as that of the European Union (Jaafari, 2001). A look at the economies of many nations is most revealing in comparison with the smoke-stacks of the 19th century, unarticulated by Sorrel (2001): • People and organizations producing wealth from innovations and ideas, intellectual property, workforce competencies, research and development, rather than wealth production being primarily dependent on control of physical or financial assets; • Information and communications technology driving both economic and social growth (and productivity); • The creation of web-like value chains in global market place rather then linear, geographical narrow value chains. Increased opportunities for export and greater availability of imports; • An increase in the trade of “intangible” goods and services (know-how, design, branding, etc) and increased provision of customer as opposed to commodity goods/services; • A regulatory environment which encouraged people and organization to be entrepreneurial, to innovate and to take up technological advances; • Capital markets which value innovation and know-how and activity stimulate growth in this area of the economy. Change has thus transformed and continues to transform the economy of every nation. How can we understand and model change? Without a proper perspective on change as a phenomenon, we cannot understand what possible role economic cybernetics can play in a complex economy of the 21st century and how less complex economies can be assisted in their quest to achieve accelerated economic and social progress. Herbert Spencer, Karl Max, and August Comte have all subscribed to the evolutionary view of change (London, 1996). These authors’ conviction of the irreversibility of change was typical of the 19th century’s widely held scientific believe that progress was natural. A study of change as phenomenon will bring with it the question of who directs the change and what sort of reaction it generates among those who experience change takes spontaneously and as a result of what is referred to as an “autocatalytic process. The concept of autocatalytic process generating change is rather new and relates to Prigogine and Stengers (1984) and later Kauffman (1991, 1992, and 1995) and a number of other researchers working at Santa Fe Institute. The advent of cybernetics and other new sciences of complexity has been largely attributed to Norbert Wiener a famous mathematician and Prigogine, a 1977 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry. Researchers since have found that there are surprising similarities between natural and social systems when it comes to the study of change. The science of complexity postulates that advent of life was not the product of chance but a natural order following the autocatalytic process. The economist Arthur (1990), collaborating closely with Kauffman at Santa Fe institute, applied the concept of autocatalytic sets to the economy. The economy too bootstraps its evolution, as it grows more complex overtime. Beyond a certain critical threshold, phase transitions occurring in stagnant developing economies can enter the COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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take-off stage when their economy has diversified sufficiently. Increased trade between two economies in a sub critical state can similarly produce a more complex and interwoven economy, which becomes supercritical and explodes outward. Catalytic effects might also operate in phase transitions that are considered negative, where critical thresholds of violence are passed as in Northern Ireland or Bosnia. Thus, according to the autocatalytic view, economic and social orders both cause and experience change, and what we observe and measure in a particular time is snapshot of what otherwise is a continuum of evolution. Change is always at work, chiseling at the base of stability of a system and preparing the system for a sudden and rapid shock, called a phase transition. 3. Economic Cybernetics and the Control of National Economies Indeed, with the growth of productive forces, the range of production widens and its content becomes more complicated; with the growth in scale of production, the complexity of economic management is growing even more rapidly, the flows of economic information are increasing and methods of processing it are changing; the increased intensity of technology precision with which they are managed; with the growth of national economy as a whole, management under optimal conditions comes to be of great economic significance, the complexity of the managerial apparatus of an economy makes higher demand on speed and reliability of collecting, processing, producing and using information at all levels. The development of science also implies an increase in the volume of information processed. The scholar type is becoming a thing of the past-in fields involving the applied sciences, at any rate. Large bodies of scientists now usually achieve the solution of major scientific problems. These bodies have powerful equipment available and great advantages as regards obtaining and processing scientific information. Descriptive science is being transformed into exact sciences using not only informal and qualitative, but mathematical and logic-mathematical methods of research. The development of theoretical methods and the creation of technical means for processing information aimed at achieving effective (ideally, optimal) solutions is an urgent necessity in modern society. The goal of ensuring optimum conditions for controlling processes is the dominant feature of cybernetics. Modern cybernetics is the science of optimum control of complex processes and system. Its main task is to devise methods of achieving goals with the least expenditure of human resources, time, materials, energy and information. The cardinal task of our society is that of increasing the effectiveness of man’s activity. In considering cybernetics in the sphere of the activity of human resources, there are many vital fields of practical production activity where valuable results are reached using cybernetic ideas and methods. One of them is in the sphere of economics. The necessity of using these methods and means of cybernetics in economics is now generally recognized. This necessity follows from many factors. One of which is the task of comprehensive mechanization and automation of production processes in industry. Partial automation of separate production operations may prove to be a relatively simple task, quite within the possibilities of the “old” technology, whereas the comprehensive automation of complex and multiform technologically interconnected process is, undoubtedly, very difficult. To accomplish such task, we must first of all ensure the economic efficiency of control. Furthermore, the control of technological processes itself can be automated. The automatic control must see that the goal of producing a high quality commodity is COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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attained within the shortest time possible, i.e, in the most efficient, optimal way. For many practical purposes this problem may be solved on the basis of preliminary theoretical, mathematical study. Often we have recourse to computer simulation of processes involved. Other methods of optimization are also beginning to be applied, where controlling device finds the optimal conditions itself in the course of its functioning. Cybernetics, its apparatus, ideas, methods and instruments are widely applied in the economy. The field where the role of cybernetics is revealed most strikingly is the construction and exploitation of automated control systems. This is quite understandable, since the volume of work in many economy is continually growing, and so is the need for economic managerial personnel. But the management of the dynamic economy has become so complicated that a mere increase in the number of personnel engaged in management is ineffective. The aim now, therefore, is to create automated systems control using powerful computers and the entire range of cybernetic methods and instruments at all major links of the economic chain-from the National (federal) economic planning to the individual enterprises. Many enterprises and other economic units already have computing centres at their disposal. It is generally known that the computer can work effectively only when its task is well defined and specific programme is fed in. The introduction of computer technology into the economy has, therefore stimulated research into the complicated processes of economic management. Unless such research is undertaken, it is impossible to formulate either the task or the programme for its accomplishment. For that, a special theory and special methods are created. This field of inquiry has been named mathematical economics, or economic cybernetics. Economic cybernetics is referred to as the use of methods of cybernetics with the aim of investigating and organizing processing economic systems. Economic cybernetics studies processes of collection, accumulation, storage and processing of information about economic objects and phenomena. As earlier defined, economic cybernetics is the study of structural and functional components of national economies as dynamic systems in which control processes are maintained by the movements and conversions of information. The subject of economic cybernetics is the control of national economy, which includes the control of sectorial economies of the individual enterprises, in a given country. Methods of analysis being applied in economic cybernetics, help in finding out optimal level of control and constructing rational systems of processing economic data, based on wide range application of computer. Investigations, which are based on economic cybernetics lead to the selection of indicators that are necessary for the control of economic objects such as enterprises. These investigation lead to selection of methods of receiving, transmitting and processing of those indicators with the minimum input and also to selection of technical devise of processing information in difficult levels of control. These investigation also lead to the study and recommendation of algorithms and programmes of processing information, which help to find out the necessary solution of a high rational form (from economic point of view on the basis of these obtained indicators and then bring it down to those who will implement it. Investigations based on economic cybernetics also lead to the study of methods of control and examining of provided solutions. The social aspect of economic cybernetics helps eliminate the boundary existing in mental and physical labour, which processes new technology of mental labour in the sphere of control based on modern reconstruction. The role of economic cybernetics COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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increases greatly in our modern society as a result of the importance of improving economic organization as the main means of general process of social transformation. In the beginning, economic cybernetics was related with processing of mathematical models of economic systems and phenomena. It was also related with use of computer for research into those models for solving control problems. Mathematical models of economic systems and the phenomena help in reasoning out better, the dynamics of the systems be studied, work out real recommendation on the rationalization of their structures and methods of economic forecasting, planning and control. In economic cybernetics, of special importance are the study of regulatory factors in models, problems of stability equilibrium, growth, regulatory character of price, establishment and emphasis on the feedback in the economy, investigation of conflict situations (in games theory), association between optimal operation and general mobility of economic systems. Economic cybernetics addresses the problem of decision-making in the control of economic systems. It also addresses problems of applying mathematical models obtained from the economic systems. Heuristic methods, of solving problems, expert forecasting and building of machine –systems for solving economic problems are addressed by economic cybernetics. Application of man-machine systems, modeling of situations and decision making for teaching and processing highly rational methods of control (business games) are carried out by the fact that mathematical modeling has become universal means of modernizing economic systems and verification of economic positions and principles.

4. Potentials of Economic – Cybernetic System of Planning Socio-Economic Development Speedy development of productive forces, the need of planned, proportional and effective national economy, require substantial and accurate knowledge of planning and control mechanism, and internal existing laws of its functioning and development. Modern economy on the basis of public division of labour, wide participation in the global economy and the rate of improvement in science and technology is a complex system indeed. Our National economies consist of many subsystems which are related to each other through many flows of labour forces, materials, energy and power, information and finances. For any subsystem of our national economies to accomplish its duties in normal conditions, it is important to set up the procedure of proper circulation of raw materials, machines and equipment, energy and other means of production. In this way we can observe the complex feed forward (direct) and feedback(indirect)flows between subsystems or sectors of our national economies in providing the normal functioning (operation) of the economic systems. The need of planned and proportional development of sectors of national economies and individual enterprises of material production in our national economies and territorial aspects, and also the need of providing various links of flows of labour and material resources, energy and power, information and financial means, result to a unified system of each national economy of extraordinary dynamic and complex characteristics. Under these conditions, solving the problem of optimal and proportional development of any national economy requires using methods of cybernetics. Economic cybernetics as an important branch of cybernetics should develop and validate the notion and models of cybernetics, and also the qualitative and quantitative methods of investigating operations of optimal and proportional growth of the basic components of national economic system. Economic cybernetics should reveal the interaction between micro and macro-systems. It should allow for better understanding and control of COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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general economic mechanism of each national economy. The practical application of method of economic cybernetics should make it possible to quantitatively determine parameters of control, analyse and investigate the anatomy of national models of our economic and social development, structure, and steadiness of our economic processes it should reveal new possibilities of increasing labour productivity and effectiveness of production. The application of cybernetic knowledge in our economic sphere is objectively predetermined by the need of optimal control of economic processes, and also by the need of bringing into agreement processes of control and organization with those possibilities which practically help in realizing modern scientific results. Application of methods of economic cybernetics should help in taking decisions which provide improvement of labour productivity and economic effectiveness as a whole, making labour easy and improves standard of living. The need of centralized control of each national economy based on plan which has the aim of providing optimal, balanced and proportional economic growth are made possible by a unified conceptual approach to economic phenomena and processes being observed in any national economy in agreement with its system characteristics. In analyzing these phenomena and processes which we meet in the system of each national economy, economic cybernetics is based on the positions of Marx and Lemin. Sequential accounting of the character of subsystems in analyzing ongoing processes and researches of the development in the system of national economy allows expose the interaction of the basic comporients of economic mechanism, and also laws of regulation and self-regulation of the system and subsystems. It simultaneously determines conditions, which provide optimal, balanced and proportional growth of the economy as a whole. Earlier in the past such economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo asserted that the economy is a unified whole, which consists of interdependent spheres. Karl Marx stated that production, distribution, exchange and consumption are not identical but form components of a unified whole, which differ in their internal unity. Society has taken them as complex system, consisting of many structures, among which economic system plays a predominant role. An important result which was obtained in economic cybernetics in relation with the investigation on conditions of optimal, balanced and proportional growth, led to the propounding of the notion of economic-cybernetic system (Meniscus M. 1986). Economiccybernetic system consists of a wide complex coordinated elements, which are interdependent within more complex structure and logically formed unified whole. In agreement with this approach, part of an enterprise, productive enterprise, scientific research organization, ministry and sector of economy, national economy as a whole-are all economic-cybernetic system, and its control is carried out on the basis of what has been established in the plan of controlling the influence or disturbance on the system. In the economic-cybernetic systems and their comprising subsystems, many functions are being carried out, which serve for better implementation of activities of national plan. The ongoing and determining processes in economic-cybernetic system are made possible by different flows of labour forces, raw materials, energy and power, capital funds and financial resources. On the other hand, self-operation (functioning) of the system generates influence on those flows. The aggregate flows which enter into economic-cybernetic system forms input vector. The result (output) of processes which flow into economic-cybernetic system is embodied in the flows of analogical component. The aggregate of those flows forms output vector.

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If we denote the input vector of economic-cybernetic system with X, and the output vector with Y, then orderly pair of indicators (x,y)ε X. Y will characterize functioning of the system. X is used to denote all input vectors of the system, Y-all output vectors. If between X and Y exists dependency, which is of this form T: X →Y, then T can be determined as operator of the functioning of the system. In this case, orderly pair (X,Y) explains the ongoing processes in the economic-cybernetic system, then the indicator ⏐⏐Y⏐⏐ Z(x,y)

=

⏐⏐X⏐⏐ will characterize the effectiveness of the functioning of the system; here ⏐⏐Y⏐⏐ and ⏐⏐X⏐⏐ means the corresponding norms of vectors y and x. In the economic o–mathematical modeling, determination of the norm in both vectors of the space or norm of input vector and output vector is of special importance. So, the norm in vector space of input quantity must reflect strategy of effective use of material and labour resources, and also desirable constant reduction of the use of raw materials, parts, energy and power. At the same norm in vector space of output quantity must be expressed with general strategy of economic and social development of the country, and also constant increase of national income and on this basis-growth of material and cultural level of life of the populace. In sequential approach from the systematic point of view, economic cybernetics studies economic o-cybernetic system on the basis of macroeconomic complex analysis. This allows expose the place and function of every system and subsystem in the aggregate economic mechanism. On this basis, they later transfer to dialogue between macro and microeconomics and to the research of microeconomic systems owing to this; symbiosis between cybernetic researches of macroeconomic and microeconomic systems is accomplished. This seems especially productive, when it is necessary to set up important elements of scientifically well-grounded managerial decision. Agreement on analytical investigation of macro and micro-systems provide explanation of the coordinated, synchronized and hierarchical relationships. This makes it possible to effectively investigate functional relationships and structural proportion in national economies. On the basis of the analysis of specific peculiarities of processes passing through cybernetic system method of its functioning and its relationship with parameters of economic growth the cybernetic system characterized as the aggregate of the three groups of the following systems: system of analysis and synthesis, executive economic system and resultant systems. Systems, which have specific mechanisms for planned economic growth are related to the above mentioned three groups as shown in figure fig1.1)


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Potential Cybernetic System of planning socio- economic development (Basic components)

System of analysis and Synthesis System of Control (control Verification-Validation

System of labour productivity

System of effectiveness and profitability

System of financing and pring

System of economic information

Executive economic systems System of material production and services

System of science and technology

Output systems System of public goods and national income System of national wealth

System of population and labour r eso urces

Fig 1.1

System of international economic relations

System of national welfare

Basic Components of Cybernetic System of Planning Socio-economic Development (Adopted from Menrscu,1986)

As shown in fig. 1.1, tasks of systems of analysis and synthesis, which form the first group, involves coordination and synchronization of all activities being carried out in national economy, with the aim of providing optimal balanced and proportional socio economic development. In this group, the system that execute the function of control, testing (verification) and validation has important role. This system helps draw into economic circulation and try as far as possible to use human and material resources more effective, and COPY RIGHT © 2011 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research

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also all elements of aggregate national wealth. Through the system of control, basic coordinates of development of each national economy are given, which provides optimal, balanced and proportional economic growth.. Realization of the tasks of control is based on: System of economic information; System of labour productivity System of effectiveness and profitability System of financing and pricing In each of these systems, there exists a state of geomorphic nature in relation to the system of each national economy, in this sense; all components of economic organisation have corresponding inputs of each system for the group of system of analysis and synthesis. The systems of second group are characterized by great number of complex economic functions, such as production of national wealth, trade, rendering of services and so on. This group of executive systems comprises: • System of population and labour resources • System of material production and services • System of science and technology • System of international relations In this case there is a need to emphasize on the great role of material production and services. Since economic sphere and all elements of each national economy are influenced in a large scale by these processes. The third group consists of output system, which is the output of all activities being carried out in each national economy. This group consists of the following: • System of public goods and national income • System of national wealth • System of national welfare Effectiveness of all these activities is valued on the basis of their contribution to increase national income, national wealth and national welfare. The characteristics of the general cybernetic system on the basis of the above mentioned three groups of systems makes it possible to explain the complexity of the national economic phenomena and processes. 5. Conclusion This paper has described the theoretical perspective of economic cybernetics in the age of information technology and dynamism. The conceptual and theoretical framework has confirmed the reality of complexity in the age of information and dynamism. This of course, calls for control. Economic cybernetics has been described as a potential scientific method of carrying out this control in every economy in order to maintain a balanced and proportional socio-economic development. In this regard, we have been equipped with tools to control national economies. On basis of this theoretical prospective of controlling national economies, each national economy is being recommended to establish its own economic-cybernetic system. This system will help in planning socio-economic development, especially in the area of balanced and proportional socio-economic development of the sectors of the national economy and individual enterprises.


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References Arthior, W. B (1990), Positive Feedback in the economy. Scientific American, February, 9799 World Bank Institute Dahlman Cail and Urz. Amya (2005), India the knowledge Economy: Lever aging strength and opportunities, Washington D. C. Geyer, F. (1998). From simplicity to complexity: adapting to the irreversibility of accelerating change. 14th Word Congress of Sociology, Montreal, July 26 – August 1, 1998 WGOI Session (see also http://www.unizar.es/socicybernetics/chen/ptge12.html). Jaafari, A. (2001) Project Management and the third revolution: can we deliver? PMResearch Conference Proceedings. 21-22 November 2001, Vienna, Austria, PM Group, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Vienna, Austria. Jaafari, A. (2003), Project Management in the Age of Complexity and Change. Prject Management Journal, U S A, December. Kauffman, S. A. (1991). Autichaos and Adaptation. Scientific America, August, 78-84. Kauffman S. A. (1992). The Origin of Order: Self-Organisation and Selection in Evolution. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Kauffman, S. A (1995). At Home in the Universe – The Search for laws of Complexity. Harmondsworth, Uk: Penguin Books. Kelly E. (1997). The Knowledge Ege: a “Fad” or a fundamental change? Strategic Futures team, Scotish Enterprise. March 1997, At: http//www.scenan-manning.com/att5.htm. London, S (1996). Understanding Change: the dynamics of Social Transformation. Published at: http://www.scott-london.com/reports/change.html. Meniscu, M. (1986), Economic Cybernetics Economica, Miascow (in Russian Language). Prigogine, I and Stengers, I (1984). Transformational Leadership defined. Published at: http.//www.ethoschannel.com/ presonalgrowth/new/1-msrtransformational.html. Sorrel, K. L. (2001): Human Capacity Building Strategy (19 March 2001, ECOTECH INFO X CHANGE Web site) The Cuba Group Ltd. Tyson, P. (1998). (Opinion). Developmental theory and postmodernist psychoanalyst. JAPA: The Journal of American Psychoanalystic Association, Vol. 4 (10). http://www.apsa.org/japa/461-opin.htm. Umo J. U. (2006). Towards Designing a Knowledge Strategy for Nigeria’s Development, Residential Address delivered at the 47th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Economic Society August 22nd – 24th, 2006.


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