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Demographic Changes and Urban Sprawl in Two Middle-Sized Cities of Campania Region (Italy) A Measurement in the Cities of Benevento and Avellino Massimiliano Bencardino() Department of Political, Social and Communication Sciences, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132 – 84084, Fisciano (SA), Italy [email protected]

Abstract. This paper aims to show a measure of the spatial expansion of the buildings in inland areas of Campania and, through this, an analysis of the most complex phenomenon of urban sprawl. This work is a pilot study aiming to test a research methodology. Thus, at this stage, the area of investigation was restricted to two medium-sized cities: Benevento and Avellino. So, the Author proposes to investigate whether there is a sprawl in this particular context, in line with the European trend, and proposes a physical and anthropic correlation index between the changes of the built areas, seen as a measure of the taken land, and the demographic changes, to analyze the phenomenon of urban sprawl in relation to housing demand. Therefore, for examined urban areas, the Author analyzes the correlation between the change in population density between the years 2001 and 2011, extracted from the Census of the population at the fractional scale, and the change in the building coverage ratio extracted from the RTC (Regional Technical Cartography) in 1998 and in 2005. Keywords: Urbanization · Urban sprawl · Demographic changes · Coverage ratio · Medium-sized cities · Shrinking cities · Inland areas

1

Introduction

The issue of urban sprawl, which refers, as it is known, to a model of expansion of the cities characterized by low-density housing and high urban fragmentation and dispersion, is regaining its centrality within the broader debate on land consumption. In fact, one of the main drivers of that are certainly the intense processes of urbanization that have redesigned Western cities over the last two centuries [6]. Although Europe has historically been characterized by dense and compact forms of urbanization, the American model of sprawl was imposed in most cities of the Old continent, both in Northern and in Mediterranean Europe. Furthermore, many «European regions are already facing population decline and a quasi surplus of urban land» [28]. In fact, as stated in the EUKN 2010 conference [15], the implications of an aging population and migration to the suburbs are felt in many cities of the continent, both in large attracting cities and in shrinking cities © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 O. Gervasi et al. (Eds.): ICCSA 2015, Part IV, LNCS 9158, pp. 3–18, 2015. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-21410-8_1

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(cities in decline), generating many problems concerning the cost of public services, the increase of traffic and pollution. So, if in some regions there is a growth that occurs within the limited borders of the city, leading to an urban densification, in others, there is a suburbanisation with a consequent urban sprawl, which it is necessary to measure. In Italy, recent studies [11], [26] have shown that, for each new inhabitant, the phenomenon of land take in villages and small villages is significantly higher than in cities or middle towns, and real estate overvaluation has now generated a decoupled land take, that is not proportional to the real housing or productive demand. Therefore, this paper aims to show the demographic dynamics and a measure of the spatial expansion of the built-up area in two middle-sized towns of the inland areas of Campania and, through this, to conduct an analysis of the most complex phenomenon of urban sprawl. We propose to investigate whether there is a sprawl in this particular context, in line with the European trend, and to understand if this territory represents an attractor of the polycentric pressures of the metropolitan area of Naples. So, in this paper, a physical and anthropic correlation index between the changes of the built-up areas, seen as a measure of the taken land, and the demographic changes is proposed to analyze the phenomenon of urban sprawl in relation to housing demand. For this purpose, the correlation between the change in population density and the change in the building coverage ratio is analyzed [10].

2

A Measurement of Urban Sprawl

The question of the measurement of urban sprawl can be traced to two key issues. The first is related to the complexity of measuring land consumption, ie the research for a unique method of quantifying the transformation of natural and agricultural surfaces into artificial surfaces, through the construction of buildings, infrastructures and other facilities. The second is related to the lack of an unambiguous and universally accepted definition of sprawl. In reference to the complexity of the measurement, there are several projects at the European and national level aimed at defining solid methodologies and comparable data for the measurement of land use; among the others, the European Corine Land Cover (CLC) project, the monitoring conducted by ISPRA in collaboration with the National System for the protection of the environment and the LEAC (Land and Ecosystem Accounts) methodology, set up by the European Agency for the Environment, are worth mentioning. However, completely satisfactory results do not match a very wide range of monitoring methods. In fact, they are often dissimilar and produce inhomogeneous, hard-to-compare measurements of the consumed land [9], [22]. As mentioned above, the second problem is related to the very definition of sprawl, and then to the search for variables that can measure the land take, that is not proportional to the real housing or productive demand. Despite the difficulty in finding a unanimous definition of the sprawl term, there is consensus about identifying the reducing population density as one of its main features. Therefore, population density is the first indicator for which we can have a measurement, and it is certainly the most used [17], [23], [25]. Other factors are related to the continuity of the built-up area,

Demographic Changes and Urban Sprawl in Two Middle-Sized Cities

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the concentration or the fragmentation of the urban centers, the complexity of urban form, and the centrality or diffusion of urban functions [19], [23]. In the search for a correlation between the built-up areas and the socio-economic variables in order to quantify in an analytical and scientific way the diachronic evolution of urbanized space, several authors [1], [20] have made use of Technical Regional Cartography. Even some regional administrations, such as the Piemonte Region, have started monitoring land take through the use of regional technical maps [27]. This has resulted in the definition of a set of indices, able to provide information both on the characteristics of urban patterns (quantification and measurement of dispersion, fragmentation of the urbanized area, etc.) and on the socio-economic characteristics of the population (residents, families, employees, enterprises) to correlate with the former. Therefore, for the examined urban areas, the correlation between the change in population density between the years 2001 and 2011 (1), extracted from the Census of the population at the fractional scale, and the change in the building Coverage ratio, extracted from the RTC (Regional Technical Cartography) in 1998 and in 2005 (2), is analyzed:

 Pop. 2011   Pop. 2001  Δδ =   −   Census area  2011  Census area  2001

(1)

 Built 2005 − Built1998  ΔC.r. =   Census area   2011

(2)

According to this approach, the change in population density presents complexities of calculation, due to differences between the territorial basis of 2001 and of 2011on which the people were surveyed1. To standardize the size of the analysis units for the two periods, the territory was divided into comparable clusters of a similar size (with pixels of 5m x 5m resolution), through the rasterization of shape files. By contrast, the Coverage ratio is given by the relation between the built-up surfaces in the RTC and the surfaces of the corresponding Census geographic units of the 2011. The spatial correlation between these two indices may be a way to measure the urban sprawl at the scale of the Census unit. Moreover, the time gap between Census data and data derived from technical maps is only an apparent problem for analysis. In fact, the updates of the territorial bases of the Census of 2001 and 2011 were developed through the projects Census 20002 and 1

2

In fact, the Census geographic units of the 2011 are not necessarily the same as those of 2001; indeed their variation is almost always associated with the identification by ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) of new inhabited localities. The Census 2000 project, which became operational in 2000 and was concluded in early 2001, was achieved through an agreement between ISTAT, AIMA (Company for interventions in the agricultural market) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Policies. Multiple information sources were used, including digital aerial orthophotos taken by AIMA between 1996 and 1998, the Regional and Municipal Technical Cartography and graphs with drawings of roads, railways and hydrography [12]. The territorial bases thus produced were returned to the Municipalities in 2005.

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Census 20103 respectively which were realized through photointerpretation made on orthophotographic bases of 1996/'98 and of 2006/'08. In effect, the acquisitions that gave rise to the RTC and those which gave birth to the Census territorial basis are almost contemporary or differ by a few years (Figure 1).

Fig. 1. Time scale of the sources

Therefore, it is possible to assert that the changes in population density and the changes in the building Coverage ratio can be put in mutual correlation with a minimum margin of error. Thus, the two-dimensional analysis of the two variables draws the geographical space. The urban area is classified in homogeneous zones, similar to other studies [16], [21], in relation to the processes of urbanization taking in place. So, seven main classes are identified, to which a sub-class, functional to a more detailed analysis, is added (Table 1). Then, where the variables (change in population density Δδ and variation of coverage ratio ΔCr) are both positive4, we have new urban development areas, called “areas of residential expansion”; when the only Δδ grows, we have “areas of residential densification”; instead, if Δδ is negative, the areas can be defined as “abandoned” or “redevelopment” ones; finally, when we detect a flurry of building and a simultaneous decline or stasis of population density, the areas can be defined “of sprawl” or “of depopulation and sprawl”.

3

4

For the Census 2010 project, started in March 2009 and ended two months later, they used the colored orthophotos, owned AGEA and produced between 2006 and 2008, as a basis for interpretation. [18]. An update of the territorial bases has been proposed to Municipalities, together with the documents, the data, the cartography and the software to perform any necessary review or validation of the same ones. It is important to note that the project specified that the Municipalities would have to try to keep the design and the coding of the localities and the Census geographic units as untouched/unaltered as possible. Changes could make only in the presence of obvious changes in the settlements compared to 2001, eg. the expansion of inhabited localities or the formation of new inhabited localities (ISTAT’s Protocol no. 2679 of 21 April 2009). The territorial bases thus produced were published in December 2013. The variation of the population density is considered greater than zero when it is greater than 2 inh./ha, and negative when it is less than 2 inh./ha. The variation of the Coverage ratio is considered different from zero when it is greater than ± 0.4%. These thresholds are the result of the empirical analysis and may be different according to the context.


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Table 1. Table of the physical and anthropic correlations in urban evolution (Source: Our elaboration)

Change in the building Coverage ratio ΔCr (2004- 1998)

Change in population density Δδ (2011- 2001) Δ δ≤0; Δ Cr0; δ inh.≈0 Areas of industrial or tertiary expansion

Δ δ>0; Δ Cr≤0 Areas of residential densification

Δ δ>0; Δ Cr>0 Areas of residential expansion

These are the areas of greatest interest for the decoupled land take, not proportional to the real demand, which could be residential or of other nature, such as that associated with an “industrial or tertiary expansion”. Therefore, a subclass of the previous two is identified when, for a Δδ ≤0 and a ΔCr>0, is also associated a population density close to zero, δ inh.≈05. In this way, we create a real zoning of urban area, connected both to the nature of the functional construction and the demographic evolution of the resident population [10]. Finally, the study was extended to the dynamics of the core and the crown of examined urban systems, trying to contextualize the growth of the construction to the phases of the urban life cycle, as described in the Curb model set out by van den Berg [29]. In this test phase of the methodology, other potentially useful parameters were not taken into account (such as number of households, the number of employees or companies rather than functions of the dispersion and fragmentation of the urban area). In fact, the purpose of this study is related to the verification of the usability of the information derived from RTC for setting objectives and for the verification of the compatibility of the same with the Census data.

3

Case Studies

As anticipated, the proposed methodology was applied to two cities of the Campania Region: Benevento and Avellino. They are two medium-sized cities, provincial capitals and city of services. These cities are of particular interest both because they are at the center of development strategies of the European Union, as medium-sized cities6, and because are included in the particular context of the inland areas of the Region.

5

6

The population density is considered to be close to zero if it is not greater than 1 inh./ha. In this case, in sparsely populated areas, the growth of built areas could be clearly associated with industrial, commercial or of public utility facilities. These cities are the target of specific funding of the 2014-2020 Community program.

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In the last two decades, they have lived intense processes of urban expansion, of suburbanisation, in a substantial demographic stasis. Furthermore, in these areas the effects of the recent economic downturn have been very obvious. Therefore, it’s interesting to measure urban sprawl in a context where there are no special requirements related to housing need or particular conditions of economic development. 3.1

The City of Benevento and Its Urban System

The first city taken for analysis is Benevento. Despite having had a project of urban planning (the Piccinato Plan) since 1933, over the last century it has been transformed in a spontaneous way. The Piccinato plan never became operational and the built-up areas have expanded, especially in the 50s and 60s, to the outside of each organic planned development. Thanks to the availability of funds bestowed as war damage, in those years the city had a period of strong expansion outside the walls of the old town and the great neighborhoods were born: Libertà, Ferrovia e Mellusi [2]. Although the current analysis of the development of the city is confined to a rather limited period, ie the time between the two regional technical cartography (19982005), in the schematically summarized results in the following table (Tab. 2) some changes of the urban structure can be distinctly read. Table 2. Zoning of the municipality of Benevento according to the present model Areas

Built 2005 (ha)

New Built (ha) %

Pop 2011

ΔPop (‘11-‘01)

Urban area (ha)

144 9 78 19 75

11 -1 0 2 17

+7 -10 0 +11 +22

11.387 2.158 21.233 3.736 3.130

-521 -207 -6.217 -1.218 +134

10.603 62 328 102 1.474

a. of industrial or tertiary expansion 7

39

11

+28

14

-288

289

a. of residential densification a. of residential expansion

38 27

-1 6

-2 +23

14.401 5.444

+5.157 +2.570

344 172

390

34

+10

61.489

-302

13.083

Invariants a. Redevelopment a. Abandoned a. a. of depopulation and sprawl a. of sprawl

Tot.

According to the used model, the municipality of Benevento is characterized by a prevalence of “invariants areas” where there isn’t significant growth both of built area and of the population. Nevertheless, there are clear signs of a significant growth of the urban perimeter and of a displacement of the resident community. In fact, although slightly decreasing population, the city continues to expand its urban area to occupy lands once used for agriculture. In the period examined, a total of

7

The area of industrial or tertiary expansion is a subclass of the previous two.


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Fig. 2. Areas of expansion, densification or sprawl, in the municipality of Benevento8

36 hectares of newly built area is detected; of these, 6 intended for residential expansion and 19 to decoupled expansion in “areas of sprawl”, ie a significant growth of built-up areas with no corresponding proportional population growth (Fig. 2). In addition, although 11 of the 19 surveyed hectares are attributable to an expansion in the industrial or service sector, a significant economic development for the city has not been demonstrated during the period of this study9. In fact, the new buildings in the industrial areas (A.S.I.) of Ponte Valentino or in new i. areas of C.da Olivola (Ex Aeroporto) are often abandoned or not fully used. Morover, the closure of many commercial activities in the historic center of the city corresponds to the opening of two shopping malls, and the closure of many cinemas in the city

8 9

The redevelopment and abandoned areas are not highlighted in the map. Similar to 20 other cities, situated for the most part in the South (Avellino, Bari, Benevento, Cagliari, Caserta, Catanzaro, etc.), Benevento is among the “swallows”, ie the cities that attempt an alignment with the Italian average, present a dynamic economy, but showed a lack of a fundamental strength, according to the classification made by Rur-Censis at the “Second Convention of the Italian cities”.

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M. Bencardino

Fig. 3. Population changes in the urban system of Benevento

center corresponds to the opening of two multiplex cinemas. All this feeds an expansion of the urban area and a more intensive use of the automobile as a means of transportation. By an analysis at the scale of the urban system, we can note a process of replacement of housing from the areas where there is an ongoing abandonment or depopulation10 to areas where there is residential densification or expansion taking place11. In particular we can see a “shrinkage sprawl” in the crowning of the oldest town or along the main arteries of what has been called “sistema urbano a direttrici e costellazione” (an urban constellation along main axes) [3,4,5]. In fact, these migrations are not only contained within the municipal borders of Benevento, but affect the entire ring of the urban system (Fig. 3), which is still in a phase of demographic growth, unlike what occurs in the core (Table 3). In particular, from the 80s, the depopulation of the city has accompanied growth of peripheral municipalities, mainly San Giorgio del Sannio, but also Sant'Angelo a Cupolo, Apollosa, Ceppaloni, Foglianise Paduli and, in the last decade, also San Nicola Manfredi, Calvi and Apice (Fig.3).

10

11

It concerns generally many neighborhoods of the city, such as the historical center and the quarters Libertà, Mellusi, Ferrovia e Pacevecchia. It concerns Lungosabato road, Meomartini road, Santa Colomba road and the contrade Montecalvo, Madonna della Salute, Gran Potenza, San Liberatore, Piano Cappelle.


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Fig. 4. Number of inhabitants in the core, in the ring and the entire urban system of Benevento, in accordance with the van den Berg model

Fig. 5. Population growth and decline of core, ring and in urban system of Benevento, in accordance with the van den Berg model

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M. Bencardino Table 3. Population growth in the core, in the ring and in the urban system of Benevento

Urban system Core Ring

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

113.000 59.009 53.991

117.223 62.636 54.587

121.431 62.561 58.870

121.228 61.791 59.437

121.780 61.489 60.291

According to the model of van den Berg [29], the urban system of Benevento had a phase of urbanization until the mid-80s, when a process of suburbanization developed that has lasted at least until the second half of the 90s. Since the 2000s, a slight disurbanization process has developed, which lasted a few years and it wasn’t exactly corresponding to the theoretical model. In fact, we have not recorded a decline of the ring and a subsequent recovery of the core, but a slight decline in the growth of the ring followed by a new phase of suburbanization (Fig. 4 and Fig. 5). Finally, during the period in which it was measured, the building growth coincides with a phase of desurbanization, albeit slight, of Benevento. Therefore, the 10% increase of the built area in seven years does not have corresponding drivers in the housing needs. So, the 34 new hectares of built-up area are certainly not justified by the decrease of the population in the city and, at the urban level, the value of 1600 square meters for each new resident is absolutely disproportionate. 3.2

The City of Avellino and Its Urban System

The development of the city in the last century was heavily influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. In fact, the geomorphology of the area, surrounded by the two Walloons (dei Lupi e Finestrelle) upstream and downstream of the city, along with destructive natural events (such as earthquakes of 1930 and 1980) have been defining the boundaries of expansion for many years. This has meant that urban development is concentrated in this area, and facilities and infrastructure were often rebuilt on the existing urban plan. In addition, administrative difficulties in the approval of the Plans12 and a lack of adequate planning instruments were added. They have fueled expansion processes limited to individual interventions, often linked to the spontaneity and management of the needs of the moment [13]. Like in Benevento, during the short period between the two regional technical maps, the analysis clearly shows the changes of the urban structure and the axes of the development of the city (Tab. 4). Conversely, Avellino is a city that has experienced a turnaround in the demographic dynamics having grown by about 1,500 inh. in the last 10 years, after two decades of population decline. According to the model used, half of the territory is subject to change. In the municipal borders of Avellino, totalling only 3'036 hectares, 30 hectares of newly built 12

Planning tools of Avellino date back to the second half of the nineteenth century; the first building regulation (the Denti Plan) is dated 1877; then the Rossi Plan (1883), Cucciniello and Ferrara Plans (1913), the Valle Plan (1933) have succeeded to arrive, since the 60s, the most modern Petrignani Plans (that of ‘71 and that of ‘91) until the policy directions of the “garden city” in the ‘90s.


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area were measured (during the period of analysis), of which 8 are associated with a residential expansion (in some cases also affected by the PIU Europe projects) and 19 of sprawl, e an expansion decoupled from the increase in population. Table 4. Zoning of the municipality of Avellino according to the present model Areas

Built 2005 (ha)

New Built (ha) % +9 3 0 0 +8 3 +21 16

Pop 2011

ΔPop (‘11-‘01)

Urban area (ha)

5.489 11.535 11.404 5.909

-334 -1.865 -1.487 +357

1.660 0 145 153 696

Invariants a. Redevelopment a. Abandoned a. a. of depopulation and sprawl a. of sprawl

38 31 33 75

a. of industrial or tertiary expansion

22

8

+39

69

-155

146

a. of residential densification a. of residential expansion

19 47

0 8

+1 +16

7.432 12.453

+1.419 +3.429

80 302

243

30

+12

54.222

+1.519

3.036

Tot.

Fig. 6. Areas of expansion, densification or sprawl, in the municipality of Avellino

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So, the expansion in the suburbs, from Pennini to Serroni and from Bellizzi until Cretazzo (Fig. 5), is strong and not always commensurate with the increase in population. Also, we found 8 hectares of industrial or tertiary expansion localized mainly in the ASI area of Piano D'Ardine, in the commercial district of Scrofeta and in that of sports and leisure, Contrada Santa Caterina, as well as in the new hospital area of the A.O. Moscati, in the cemetery and in the prison of Bellizzi Irpino.

Fig. 7. Population changes in the urban system of Avellino

According to the model of van den Berg [29], since the 70s, in the urban system of Avellino a process of suburbanization has taken place, which has never stopped. The city of Avellino has begun to expand into a wider area, which affected at first the small-size town of Atripalda, then those of Mercogliano and Monteforte Irpino, and finally the small-size town of Aiello del Sabato (Fig. 6). Here too, the urban expansion takes the form of “shrinkage sprawl”. Between the 80s and 90s, these municipalities have absorbed a large portion of the population of the city (Tab. 5). Table 5. Population growth in the core, in the ring and in the urban system of Avellino

Urban system Core Ring

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

81.441 52.382 29.059

92.239 56.892 35.347

99.376 55.662 43.714

100.564 52.703 47.861

106.202 54.222 51.980


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Fig. 8. Number of inhabitants in the core, in the ring and the entire urban system of Avellino, in accordance with the van den Berg model

Fig. 9. Population growth and decline of core, ring and in urban system of Avellino, in accordance with the van den Berg model

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Never entering into a real disurbanization phase, the urban system of Avellino, starting in the 2000s, is going through a phase of anomalous contemporary re-urbanization and suburbanization (Fig. 7 and Fig. 8). In fact, the population of the entire urban system has never decreased, but only had a horizontal inflection in growth. The conclusions drawn for Benevento are also applicable to Avellino. The period in which a building growth was measured in the city coincides with a phase of demographic stagnation. Therefore, the 12% increase of the built area in seven years can not be justified by the light population growth that the core of the urban system has achieved in the last decade, after two decades of population decline and housing market crisis [14]. In both case, the urban sprawl appears strongly linked to a demand for more services or the desire of a growing part of the urban population to live in the surrounding rural places where it is guaranteed a greater sense of well-being [6].

4

Open Issues

Trying to quantify the phenomenon of sprawl in the considered areas, it’s possible to say that the method of analysis has presented satisfying results, when compared to the complexity of the phenomenon that was represented. Therefore, the attempt to arrive at a numerical quantification allowed some preliminary evaluations on these areas and opens up various issues to collective reflection, both technical, procedural and theoretical-analytical. The main problems are given by the time gap between the Census data and the cartographic surveys at the regional scale (as discussed in previous chapters), the usability of the data derived from the RTC, some errors in the geo-coding of the ISTAT data at the fractional scale and, finally, by the choice of ideal partition level of the space in which to analyze the considered indices. The quality of the encoding of RTC data appeared sometimes insufficient. In fact, coherence and consistency in the allocation of drawn surfaces to the various analytical categories (generic, industrial or agricultural building, shed, warehouse, shack) has not always been observed. For the Census data at the fractional scale, errors may exist on survey, as happened. Pressed on the issue, ISTAT declares that «geo-coding at the fractional scale of the addresses of surveyed households was carried out by the municipalities which, in some cases, have not worked according to the required standard and have proceeded to award a Census geographic units adjacent to correct ones», and that «the Census data at the fractional level are considered provisional». ISTAT ensures the validity of the final data to higher territorial aggregations. Despite this, the choice of the level of disaggregation of the indexes appears good. In fact, the main directions of the urban expansion and of the urban sprawl can thus be highlighted. Probably, a greater reflection on the threshold of membership in each class should be made. Likewise, the choice of the urban system as scale of analysis has appeared useful. In fact, to contextualize the measurement of urban evolution to a specific phase of the urban life cycle of van den Berg model, appeared very effective to show the disconnection between the growth of the built and the real housing needs.


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Finally, this study confirms that the decoupled land take in the inland areas and in the peripheral urban systems is stronger than the one measured in the big cities by other authors [6], [11], [26], and points out the urgency of a new law on ground rent.

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