DINAMIKA PROSES KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK DALAM DIMENSI EKONOMI

DINAMIKA PROSES KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK DALAM DIMENSI EKONOMI

Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD Jakarta, 2011

Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

MEREALISASIKAN PELUANG DI TENGAH KRISIS

PROF. ROY SEMBEL EDUCATION 1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude 1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours 1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance; Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and Heterogeneous Information”

WORK EXPERIENCE 1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB. 1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam. 1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam 1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh. 1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI


1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta. 2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand 1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta. 1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate (S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects: Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management. 1

1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta 2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara 2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk 2005- Professor in Financial Economics; Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia 2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya, 2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Mobee Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia) 2007- Ketua Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI), Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia 2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN) 2008 Board of Advisor UMN 2008-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH 2008-2010 Chief Research Officer / Chairman CAPITAL PRICE 2010- Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange


MISCELLANEOUS Speaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA, Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen & Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet. Ketua Dewan Juri Top 100 Best Publicly Listed Companies @ IDX (Majalah Investor) Wakil Ketua Dewan Juri Anugerah Investor Utama (BKPM / Bisnis Indonesia)

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AGENDA CRISIS

OPPORTUNITY 3

WISE QUOTES DURING ANY CRISIS None of us can change our yesterdays, but all of us can change our tomorrows (Colin Powell) You can’t escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today (Abraham Lincoln)


Rich people focus on opportunities. Poor people focus on obstacles. (Chinese Proverb)

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INDONESIAN ECONOMY: THE YEARS OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY ?

Crisis is Everywhere…..


KASUS KORUPSI

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TRENDS ON SOME KEY ECONOMIC AND INVESTMENT INDICATORS 2003-2006 2004

2005

2006

IHSG Shanghai Korea

704.5 1517.19 821.26

1000.23 1266.50 895.92

1162.64 1161.06 1379.37

1805.52 2675.47 1434.46

GDP (%) GDP/Cap Unemplymt (%) Inflation (%) SBI (%) Kurs USD

4.8 1100 9.5 5.33 8.5 8500

5.0 1187 9.9 6.18 7.5 9300

5.7 1308 10.3 17.11 12.75 9800

5.5 1641 10.3 6.6 9.75 9000


2003

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Average

Std Dev

Max 10.753

Min 8.295

415,83 Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

9.180 06/06/2008

04/13/2008

02/19/2008

12/27/2007

11/03/2007

09/10/2007

07/18/2007

05/25/2007

04/01/2007

02/06/2007

12/14/2006

10/21/2006

08/28/2006

07/05/2006

05/12/2006

03/19/2006

01/24/2006

12/01/2005

10/08/2005

08/15/2005

06/22/2005

04/29/2005

03/06/2005

01/11/2005

11/18/2004

09/25/2004

08/02/2004

06/09/2004

04/16/2004

02/22/2004

12/30/2003

11/06/2003

09/13/2003

07/21/2003

Rp/$

KURS DOLAR RUPIAH MULAI PERTENGAHAN TAHUN 2006 STABIL ANTARA RpAS9000 – terakhir Rp 9500 Kurs dollar 5 tahun 11.000

10.500

10.000

9.500

9.000

8.500

8.000

Date

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ARTIKEL BISNIS INDONESIA “HOT MONEY MEMANG BUKAN HONEY”

•Pasar Finansial sedang bergejolak luar biasa

•Hot money, short term investment horizon


•Nilai fundamental sulit ditetapkan

•Perlu diversifikasi sebagai risk management

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SOME RECENT ECONOMIC AND CAPITAL MARKET INDICATORS 2007 2008 8%

9.5%

INFLATION RATE

6.6%

12%

GDP GROWTH

6.3%

6.0%

GDP / CAP (US$)

1850

2020

EXCHANGE RATE (Rp/$)

9.200

11.000

IHSG

2750

1350

Source: Various


BI RATE

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Krisis 2008 vs 1998 Krisis 1998

Krisis 2008

Pusat krisis

Indonesia

Luar Indonesia (AS)

Inflasi

77,6%

~11%

Pertumbuhan PDB

-13,13%

~6,1%

Deposito 3 bulan

40%

10%

Cadangan devisa

< US$ 20 milyar

> US$ 50 milyar

Penurunan IHSG

65,6% dlm 14 bulan

~ 60 % dlm 10 bulan

Sektor terparah

Perbankan, properti

Pertambangan, Perkebunan Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

Indikator

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Indonesian Economy and Capital Markets at turn of the year 2008/2009

SOME INDICATORS STILL OK …. BUT ... GDP Growth > 6% GDP / capita / year > US$ 2000

Inflation ~11% US$ exchange rate ~ Rp 11.500 IHSG ~ 1350

LDR > 60%; NPL < 5%

Sub prime mortgage crisis in USA

Ekspor > US$ 100 milyar

Persiapan pemilu


Oil price ~ US$ 50 / brl

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IMPACT IN 2009 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH -2,2% SWING PATTERN (PENDULUM EFFECT) IN INDONESIA: •USD WEAKEN (ABOUT 20% IN 2009) AGAINTS IDR •IHSG INCREASE 87% (BEST AMONG MAIN MARKETS) CROWDING OUT EFFECT  12% USD INTEREST RATE ON INDONESIA GLOBAL BOND Q1


LOWER GDP GROWTH: China 8,4%, India 6%, Indonesia 4.5% Other countries close to 0 or negative LOWER INFLATION  INDONESIA’S INFLATION: 2,78%

DOWNWARD TREND OF INTEREST RATE  BI RATE 6,5%

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The worst condition happened @ Q1 2009

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STOCK MARKET REBOUND TO JAN 2007 LEVEL

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Source: World Bank Thomson/Datastream


CURRENCIES RECOVERY AGAINST USD

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MODEST RECOVERY PROSPECT

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REAL COMMODITY PRICES: FINDING NEW EQUILIBRIUM

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SURVEY BY MGI •Low consumer demand in developed countries •Bright picture for developing countries


•Threats: High commodity prices, uncertain currency values

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Development of Economy: Some indicators

2007 8% 6,6% 6,3% 1850 9200 2745

2008 9,25% 11% 6,1% 2020 11500 1355

* Sumber: data base CAPITAL PRICE dari berbagai sumber

2009 6,50% 2,8% 4,5% 2300 9450 2534

2010 6,50% 7% 6,1% 3000 9000 3700 Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

Indicator . BI Rate Inflation rate GDP growth GDP / capita (USD) USD (Rp/US$) IHSG

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2011

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AGENDA CRISIS

OPPORTUNITY 21

PROJECTION OF INDONESIA GDP

TOTAL GDP (USD Bn) INDONESIA 20000 17500 15000

USA 2010

10000

JAPAN 2010

7500 5000 2500 0 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 YEAR

Source: CAPITAL PRICE Analysis

2035

2040

2045

205


GDP

12500

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GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS


GOOD NEWS: + GDPGROWTH: Chindonesia BAD NEWS: + GDP / CAPITA > US$ 3000 - HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT + G 20 - PERTUMBUHAN TERPUSAT + DEMOKRASI DAMAI - HDI RANK + NATIONAL HERRITAGE - CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX + PENETRASI PONSEL>80% 200Jt - DEFORRESTRATION + ALTERNATIVE ENERGY - INDEKS KEMUDAHAN BERBISNIS + IHSG > 4000 - DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN + BB+ BBB - INFRASTRUKTUR + USD ~ Rp 8500 - DISTORSI PASAR + CADANGAN DEVISA ~ $ 120 M - FUNDING COST + TOTAL EKSPOR > $150 M - KETERSEDIAAN ENERGI (LISTRIK, + PENDUDUK BERPENGHASILAN DISTRIBUSI BBM, dll) $10-20/HARI NAIK 5 X LIPAT - LOW PERFORNANCE-BASED DALAM 10 TAHUN CULTURE - LOW DOMESTIC INVESTOR BASE

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AMARTYA SEN: MEMBERDAYAKAN MASYARAKAT ADALAH TUJUAN PEMBANGUNAN YANG SEBENARNYA “Amartya Sen has restored an ethical dimension to the discussion of vital economic problems.”

Amartya Sen


– Royal Swedish Academy announcement of the award of the 1998 Nobel Prize in economic science

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PEMBANGUNAN HARUS MEMBANTU MENGAKTUALISASIKAN KEBEBASAN DASAR MANUSIA Deskripsi

Political freedom

Opportunities to determine who should govern and to scrutinize authorities

Peluang kontribusi teknologi • On-line voting • On-line polling • Community “complaint registry”

• • • •

On-line commodity prices On-line exchange rate info. SME B2B marketplaces Employment portal

Social opportunities

Arrangements made by society for education, health care, etc. that allow people to live better.

• • • •

“Wired” schools Distance learning “Wired” PUSKESMAS Health information portals

Transparency guarantees

Freedom to deal with other citizens/businesses under guarantees of disclosure and lucidity

• Consumer protection portals • Legal portals • On-line “complaint registry” • Web-based information on social safety

Protective security

Social safety net for preventing the population from being reduced to abject misery

Sumber: Presentasi McKinsey & Co pada e-Government Seminar


Economic opportunities

Opportunities to utilize economic resources for the purpose of consumption, production, or exchange

net and welfare programs

• “First alert” site for crisis situations

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SWOT ANALYSIS for the Economy PELUANG: Pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina/India Pemulihan ekonomi AS Perkembangan ICT Kerjasama intra ASEAN WTO / AFTA Harga minyak dunia

KELEMAHAN: Cryonism (KKN) Penegakan hukum Luka akibat krisis Human Development Index rendah Infrastruktur keras kurang memadai Distorsi pasar Humas lemah Politik masih dalam proses transisi

ANCAMAN: Krisis Finansial Dunia Terorisme fisik Terorisme ekonomi Wabah penyakit Gejolak harga komoditas/tambang Bencana alam


KEKUATAN: Biodiversity Sumberdaya tambang dan migas Matahari 12 bulan per tahun Sumberdaya kelautan Keindahan alam, seni, dan budaya Jumlah penduduk peringkat 4 dunia Lokasi geografis

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CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDED FOR ECONOMY Transportasi: Jalan, Jembatan, Pelabuhan, Bandara, Rel Energi: Listrik, BBM, Matahari, Angin, Gelombang, Renewable ICT: Voice, Data. Multimedia Biotechnology, Nanotechnology

INFRASTRUKTUR LUNAK

Law and order Good governance

HUMAN CAPITAL

Basic life skills, positive mindset, entrepreneurship Learning vs teaching Knowledge management

MARKET

Better markets for: Jobs Products / services Financial assets


INFRASTRUKTUR KERAS

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W.I.S.D.O.M to Uncover Opportunities

Watak

Kenali sumberdaya dan lingkungan anda

I

Impian/Ingin

Tetapkan masa depan yang diinginkan

S

Siasat

Petakan strategi

D

Didik

Lakukan Pembelajaran / Capacity Building

O

Otak / Otot

Eksekusi / Implementasi dengan kerja cerdas dan kerja keras

M

Meter Monitor Manajemen

Ukur pencapaian Pantau penyimpangan Kelola sumberdaya secara optimal


W

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FRAMEWORK Common Goal

CULTURE

Hardware

Software

Marketware

Brainware


Leadership

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PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES EVERYWHERE PENDEKATAN INTERNAL

PENDEKATAN EXTERNAL

OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES Tangible Assets Intangible Assets

RIDING ON A TREND GEOGRAPHY DEMOGRAPHY

CAPACITY BUILDING

PSYCHOGRAPHY

PENDEKATAN INOVASI

NEW PRODUCTS NEW WAYS OF DOING ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES NEW TECHNOLOGY


CREATING A TREND

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SUMBER REJEKI BARU: ASET INTANGIBLE (ATB)

Intangibles

• Merek / Reputasi • Inovasi / Intelektual • Kompetensi • Network /


Relationships

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PENDEKATAN INTERNAL OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES •KENALI POTENSI SUMBERDAYA YANG ANDA MILIKI INFRASTRUKTUR Gedung Lahan Pabrik Mesin Kendaraan IT / IS

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP Jaringan distribusi Brand recognition Customer satisfaction Service excellence

INOVASI Patents Talents Innopreneurships


•SUDAHKAH POTENSI EXISTING RESOURCES DIMANFAATKAN SECARA OPTIMAL ?

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PENDEKATAN INTERNAL CAPACITY BUILDING •KEMBANGKAN KAPASITAS SUMBERDAYA YANG ANDA MILIKI NEW SYSTEM Just-in-time TQM De-bottle-necking NEW TECHNOLOGY

TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT

PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS


Internet and Communication Technology Better / faster machines

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PENDEKATAN EXTERNAL GENERAL TREND

Trend penggunaan ICT

SPECIFIC TREND / FAD

Pemilu Rebonding Realty Show

GEOGRAPHY

China Otda

DEMOGRAPHY

Aging population Rising middle class

PSYCHOGRAPHY

Metrosexual people Interest groups / communities Car Club Alumni Club


RIDING ON A TREND

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PENDEKATAN INOVASI

CREATING A TREND

FACEBOOK

NEW PRODUCTS

Blackberry, i-pad

NEW WAYS OF DOING ECON ACTVTS Mini market Internet Banking


NEW TECHNOLOGY

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SYSTEM APPROACH

EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

INTERNAL CONTEXT I N P U T

O U T P U T

PROCESS

F E E D B A C K Internal Context: •Rules & Regulations •Supporting infrastructures •Human resources •Stakeholder relationship •Governance


External Environment: •Market and Economy •Legal / Court System •Political and Socio-cultural System •Others

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FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY MAKING

Procedures

Results

Perceptions C O M M U N I C A T I O N

•Success Stories •Weaknesses •Barriers for improvements •Opportunities for improvements

P O L I C Y Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Facts

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OUTLOOK 2011 RUPIAH KUAT, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI BAGUS, BUNGA TETAP RENDAH, PASAR MODAL MASIH TREN NAIK

2009 6,50% 2,8% 4,5% 2300 9450 2534 7,9% 42 66,1

* Sumber: data base CAPITAL PRICE dari berbagai sumber

2010 6,50% 7% 6,1% 3000 9000 3700 7,5% 35 93

2011 6,5%-7% 5%-7% 6,5%-7% 3500 8000-9000 4200 6,8% 30 120


Indicator 2008 . BI Rate 9,25% Inflation rate 11% GDP growth 6,1% GDP / capita (USD) 2020 USD (Rp/US$) 11500 IHSG 1355 8,6% Unemployment Competitiveness rank 51 Cad Devisa ($ M) 51,7

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GRATIS e-NEWSLETTER Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

WISDOM, WEB, WEALTH

Kirim e-mail dari e-mail anda ke [email protected]

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