eLSE 2016 eLearning Vision 2020!

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University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Iasi, Romania. Dr. Stefan COLIBABA ..... CREATING A MOBILE APPLICATION ON ANDROID PLATFORM. FOR AN ...
eLSE 2016 Editor

Ion ROCEANU Dirk DUBOIS

Florica MOLDOVEANU

Ioana STANESCU

Daniel BELIGAN

Maria Iuliana DASCALU

Dragos BARBIERU

eLearning Vision 2020! Volume I

eLearning and Software for Education Conference Bucharest, April 21 – 22, 2016

_______________________________ Publisher: “CAROL I” National Defence University Publishing House Director: Alexandru STOICA Panduri Street, 68-72 Bucharest Phone: +40213194880 _______________________________

ISSN 2066-026X ISSN-L 2066-026X

Further information on all eLearning and Software for Education – eLSE – events can be found at: www.elseconference.eu

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This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage on databanks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Romanian Copyright Law of March 14, 1996 in its current version, and permission for use will always be obtained from Carol I National Defence University. Violations are liable for prosecution under the Romanian Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of the specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for the general use. Administrative & Technical Committee Daniel BELIGAN, Dragos BARBIERU, Catalin RADU, Gheoghe ANGHEL, Stefanel ROSCAN, Gabriel DOBRESCU, Mariana BUNEA, Gheorghe DUMITRESCU,

"Carol I" National Defense University, Romania, "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania "Carol I" National Defense University, Romania

Technical editor Gabriela CHIRCORIAN

"Carol I" National Defense University, Romania

eLSE 2016 The 12th International Scientific Conference “eLearning and Software for Education”

eLearning Vision 2020!

Volume I

Conference Chairman: Professor Dr. Ion ROCEANU, “Carol I” National Defence University, Bucharest, Romania Scientific Committee: Prof. Dr. Adrian CURAJ, Minister of National Education and Scientific Research, Romania Dr. Romita IUCU, Vice-Rector, University of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Vasilica GRIGORE, Vice-Rector, National University of Physical Education and Sport Bucharest, Romania Prof. Dr. Eng. Florica MOLDOVEANU, Dean, Faculty of Automatic Control and Computers, University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Lucian Ion CIOLAN, Dean, Faculty of University of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Jannicke BAALSRUD HAUGE, Bremer Institut fur Produktion und Logistik (BIBA), Germany Dr. Doina BANCIU, National Institute for Research & Development in Informatics Bucharest, Romania Dr. Francesco BELLOTTI, University of Genoa, Italy Dr. Mirela BLAGA, "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Romania Dr. Horia CIOCARLIE, "Politehnica" University Timisoara, Romania Dr. Adrian ADASCALITEI, "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Romania Dr. Carmen Elena CIRNU, National Institute for Research & Development in Informatics Bucharest, Romania Dr. Anca Daniela IONITA, University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Anca Cristina COLIBABA, "Grigore T.Popa" University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Iasi, Romania Dr. Stefan COLIBABA, "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" University of Iasi, Romania Dr. Vladimir CRETU, "Politehnica" University Timisoara, Romania Dr. Sara DE FREITAS, Serious Games Institute, Coventry University Technology Park, United Kingdom Dr. Alessandro GLORIA, University of Genoa, Italy Dr. Gabriela GROSSECK, West University of Timisoara, Romania Dr. Christian GLAHN, Open University of the Netherlands, Netherland Dr. Carmen HOLOTESCU, "Politehnica" University Timisoara, Romania Dr. Phil ICE, American Public University System, West Virginia, USA

Dr. Olimpius ISTRATE, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Switzerland Dr. Malinka IVANOVA, Technical University of Sofia, Bulgariageir Radu JUGUREANU, SIVECO Romania, Romania Dr. John FISCHER, Bowling Green Ohio State University, Ohio Dr. Theo LIM, Heriot-Watt University, UK Dr. Bogdan LOGOFATU, University of Bucharest Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Romania Dr. Alin MOLDOVEANU, "Politehnica" University Bucharest, Romania Dr. George MOUZAKITIS, Educational Organization eDEKA, Greece Dr. Laura MURESAN, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Romania Dr. Michela OTT, Institute for Educational Technology, CNR, Italy Dr. Knud ILLERIS, Aarhus University, Denmark Dr. Cristina MIRON, University of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Florin POPENTIU -VLADICESCU, University of Oradea, Romania Dr. Cristina NICULESCU, Research institute for Artificial Intelligence, Romania Mr. Cosmin HERMAN, SC eLearning & Software SRL, Romania Dr. Stefan TRAUSAN-MATU, "Politehnica" University Bucharest, Romania Dr. Neculai Eugen SEGHEDIN, "Gheorghe Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Romania Dr. Virgil POPESCU, University of Craiova, Romania Dr. Emanuel SOARE, University of Pitesti, Romania Ioana STANESCU, ADL Romania Association, Romania Dr. Monica STANESCU, National University of Physical Education and Sport of Bucharest, Romania Dr. Veronica STEFAN, "Valahia" University of Targoviste, Romania Dr. Teodora Daniela CHICIOREANU, "Politehnica" University Bucharest, Romania Dr. Katheryna SYNYTSYA, IRTC ITS, Ukraine Dr. Marin VLADA, University of Bucharest, Romania

CONTENTS eEDUCATION and eTRAINING: CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND SECURITY AND DEFENCE .................................................11 Jochen REHRL MOBILE APPLICATIONS FOR CONCEPT MAPS: ANALYSIS AND PROPOSED CRITERIA FOR ITS USE IN EDUCATION ...................................................17 Roberto BAELO, Rosa-Eva VALLE EVALUATION OF DOCTORAL AND POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RELATED TO THE RESEARCH EXPERIENCE ..............................................................................................24 Mihail ANTON STEPS IN DEVELOPING AN ENGLISH E-CLASS BASED ON LISTENING ..........................30 Alina BALAGIU, Dana ZECHIA ANALYSIS OF HUMAN BIO-BEHAVIOR AND EYE MOVEMENTS CORRELATED WITH INDUCED POSITIVE / NEGATIVE EMOTIONAL LEVEL ...............38 Mihaela Ioana BARITZ THE TRANSITION FROM CLASSIC TO DIGITAL TEXTBOOKS – THE CASE OF HISTORY TEACHING ...........................................................................................45 Carol CAPITA, Laura-Elena CAPITA CAMPUS INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR ENHANCING QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE IN A SMART CITY HIGH EDUCATION ENVIRONMENT ..............50 Virgil CHICHERNEA, Dan SMEDESCU IMPACT OF WEB 3.0 ON THE EVOLUTION OF LEARNING ......................................................57 Ana Maria CHISEGA-NEGRILĂ THE CHALLENGE OF CREATIVITY FOR THE STUDENTS OF THE DIGITAL AGE .....................................................................................................................63 Roxana- Sorina CONSTANTINESCU HIGHER EDUCATION ELEARNING PROGRAMS - A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THE SHORT FUTURE TRENDS AND CHALLENGES .........................................................69 Iuliana DOBRE INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL INTELLIGENCE – A TECHNOLOGY-BASED LEARNING MODEL ..........................................................................77 Teodora DOBRE, Florentina HĂHĂIANU THE IMPORTANCE OF NATURAL USER INTERFACE IN DESIGNING MOBILE LEARNING APPS .................................................................................83 Mircea GEORGESCU, Roxana - Marina POPA STRAINU AN APPROACH ABOUT TURNING CHALLENGES INTO OPPORTUNITIES USING INTERNET OF THINGS ......................................................................................................90 Mircea GEORGESCU, Roxana HUCANU

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AN INFORMATIONAL MODELLING VIEWPOINT OVER THE PRODUCT CONCEPTUAL SPACE ...........................................................................98 Dragoş ILIESCU, Marian GHEORGHE FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH CONCERNING THE MODELS OF CONSTRUCTING MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS .............................................................103 Costică LUPU E-LEARNING IN FASHION DESIGN AT THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF ARTS BUCHAREST 2020 ..........................................................................................................111 Alexandru IOAN-MĂRGINEAN INFORMATION RESOURCES MANAGEMENT BASED ON FEEDBACK THEORY IN A MILITARY ORGANIZATION ..............................................115 Laurian GHERMAN, Ovidiu MOȘOIU, Vasile BUCINSCHI KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT UTILIZATION IN ORGANIZATIONS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.................................................................................................................122 Zlatko NEDELKO, Carmen Elena CIRNU, Vojko POTOCAN

ANDRAGOGICAL SELF-ASSESSMENT OF ONLINE LEARNING .............................128 Cristina NICOLAESCU DEVELOPMENT OF COMMUNICATION COMPETENCIES REQUIRED IN BUSINESS THROUGH BLENDED LEARNING.....................................................................134 Aurel Mircea NIȚĂ, Ionela Gabriela SOLOMON E-LEARNING EXPERIENCES IN NON-EUROPEAN COUNTRIES (SYRIA AND TURKEY) ..................................................................................................................140 Corina SAK-COLAREZA, Mona HAMMAMI, Ioan NEACȘU, Luciana MIHAI RETHINKING EDUCATION WITH COGNITIVE MAPS ........................................................144 Nicoleta SĂMĂRESCU 23 SERIOUS GAMES DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK A FUNCTIONAL MODEL ON FLOOD SITUATIONS ...............................................................149 Ionut SCAETEANU, Adriana MALUREANU VISUAL PROGRAMMING FOR TEACHING STATISTICAL MODELING AND SIMULATION ..................................................................................................158 Daniela TUDORICĂ ANALYSIS OF THE ALTRUISTIC DIMENSION OF CSCL CHATS.......................................166 Mohammad Hamad ALLAYMOUN, Stefan TRAUSAN-MATU ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF LEARNING ACTIVITIES THROUGH BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TYPE TOOLS...........................................................174 Mihai ANDRONIE THE USAGE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN THE PROCESS OF EDUCATIONAL COMMUNICATION .................................................182 Gabriela CĂPĂȚÎNĂ, Roxana-Denisa STOENESCU EAECRYPT TOOL FOR UNDERSTANDING MODERN AND COMPLEX CRYPTOGRAPHIC ALGORITHMS ..............................................................188 Cristina-Loredana DUTA, Laura GHEORGHE, Nicolae TAPUS

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ARGUMENTATION IN A SECOND-SCREEN EDUCATIONAL PLATFORM ......................202 Veronica JASCANU, Nicolae JASCANU AN INTERCHANGE FORMAT FOR SECOND-SCREEN EDUCATIONAL PLATFORMS ......................................................................................................208 Nicolae JASCANU, Veronica JASCANU THE ROLE OF THE MARITIME SIMULATORS IN EVALUATING THE PRACTICAL COMPETENCIES OF GRADUATED STUDENTS IN ORDER TO ACCOMPLISH OFFICER OF THE WATCH DUTIES ONBOARD VESSELS .......................................................................................................................216 Sergiu LUPU, Andrei POCORA, Florin NICOLAE, Cosmin KATONA, Elena Carmen LUPU WHAT IS IT LIKE TO BE AN ENTREPRENEUR? A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSING MULTIVOICEDNESS OF MEANING IN GAMIFIED LEARNING PLATFORMS ...................................................................................223 Răzvan RUGHINIȘ, Daniel ROSNER, Ștefania MATEI NAMED ENTITIES DISTRIBUTION IN NEWSPAPER ARTICLES ........................................231 Liviu Sebastian MATEI, Ştefan TRĂUŞAN MATU BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE IN eLEARNING .............................................................................239 Aida Maria POPA PULSATING MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON..............................................................................243 Valentin PUPEZESCU CREATING A MOBILE APPLICATION ON ANDROID PLATFORM FOR AN E-LEARNING SYSTEM OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FOR A HISTORIC SITE WITH ARCHAEOLOGICAL AND ARCHITECTURAL COMPONENTS ...................................................................................251 Radu RĂDESCU, Victor PAVEL AN ADAPTIVE SOLUTION FOR MANAGING THE MODULE OF AUTOMATIC ALLOCATION OF OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENTS IN THE EASY-LEARNING ONLINE EDUCATION PLATFORM ............................................259 Radu RĂDESCU, Mihai URECHE, Valentin PUPEZESCU LODRO: USING CULTURAL ROMANIAN OPEN DATA TO BUILD NEW LEARNING APPLICATIONS ...............................................................................................267 Octavian RINCIOG, Vlad POSEA THE DIGITAL RHETORIC OF PREZI. VISUAL RE-PRESENTATIONS OF DEPRESSION AND OTHER PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITIONS ......................................275 Cosima RUGHINIȘ, Bogdana HUMĂ, Sergiu COSTEA MAKING E-MOBILITY SUITABLE FOR ELDERLY ................................................................283 Ovidiu Andrei SCHIPOR, Irina MOCANU AUTOMATIC ANALYSIS OF PAUSES IN COLLABORATIVE LEARNING CHATS..........289 Sibel DENISLEAM (MOLOMER), Stefan TRAUSAN-MATU TAKING THE PULSE OF THE CLASSROOM WITH RESPONSE TECHNOLOGY ...........297 George Adrian STOICA, Raoul Pascal PEIN

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ACCELERATING ELEARNING FOR CLOUD SERVICES AND BIG DATA PLATFORMS IN HEALTHCARE ..................................................................................................304 George SUCIU, Gyorgy TODORAN, Raluca BANICA THE RESOURCES USED BY THE STUDENTS FOR LEARNING PROGRAMMING SUBJECTS ........................................................................................................312 Alin ZAMFIROIU, Carmen ROTUNĂ IT-SUPPORTED LIFELONG LEARNING PRACTICES IN DANUBE REGION COUNTRIES ..............................................................................................320 Roxana POSTELNICU, Maria-Iuliana DASCALU, Constanta-Nicoleta BODEA, Anca MORAR, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Bianca TESILA, Alexandru MITREA HEALTHCARE PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED ON BIG DATA FUSION FROM BIOMEDICAL SENSORS ...................................................................................................328 Raluca Maria AILENI FROM GAME DESIGN TO GAMIFICATION AND SERIOUS GAMING – HOW GAME DESIGN PRINCIPLES APPLY TO EDUCATIONAL GAMING .......................334 Oana BĂLAN, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Florica MOLDOVEANU, Anca MORAR A PRACTICAL SURVEY ON HEALTH MONITORING DEVICES AND THEIR IMPACT ON QUALITY OF LIFE ...........................................................................342 Viviana Elena Sînziana DINU, Tudor Ion CODÂRNAI, Maria-Iuliana DASCALU, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Cristian TASLITCHI, Ionut NEGOI CASE STUDY: USING THE TRAINING FIRM CONCEPT TO DEVELOP THE BUSINESS COMPETENCIES OF SCHOOL STUDENTS .................................................350 Cătălin HĂNŢULIE, Cristian MUSTAŢĂ, Elena Laura TRIFAN CASE STUDY: USING THE TOPSIM GENERAL MANAGEMENT 2 BUSINESS SIMULATION SOFTWARE TO DEVELOP THE KEY ENTREPRENEURSHIP COMPETENCES ....................................................................................356 Cristian MUSTAŢĂ, Elena Laura TRIFAN, Cătălin HĂNŢULIE COGNITIVE TRAINING GAMES TO IMPROVE LEARNING SKILLS .................................360 Cosmin – Daniel NICHIFOR, Maria – Iuliana DASCĂLU, Ana – Maria NEAGU, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Constanța – Nicoleta BODEA VIRTUAL REALITY FOR EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN DENTISTRY .........................367 Ionel-Bujorel PĂVĂLOIU, Radu IOANIŢESCU, George DRĂGOI, Sorin GRIGORESCU, Simona Andreea SANDU CONTINUOUS KNOWLEDGE – CONSTRUCTION AND CONSOLIDATION OF A NATION.......................................................................................373 Oana BĂLAN, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Florica MOLDOVEANU, Anca MORAR MODEL OF EVALUATION USING QUESTIONS WITH SPECIFIED SOLVING TIME .............................................................................................379 Daniel NIJLOVEANU, Nicolae BOLD, Ion Alexandru POPESCU MLEARNING APPLICATION FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ASSESSMENT ON SITE ..................................................................................................................386 Cristina SAVIN, Călin COJOCARU, Florica MOLDOVEANU, Alin MOLDOVEANU

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A SURVEY OF VIRTUAL REALITY APPLICATIONS AS PSYCHOTHERAPEUTIC TOOLS TO TREAT PHOBIAS ...................................................392 Iulia-Cristina STĂNICĂ, Maria-Iuliana DASCALU, Alin MOLDOVEANU, Constanta-Nicoleta BODEA, Sorin HOSTIUC ELEARNING AND MOBILE APPLICATIONS IN PALLIATIVE CARE ................................400 Dana Mihaela VÎLCU NEW PERSPECTIVES ON DISTANCE LEARNING IN INTELLIGENCE EDUCATION ................................................................................................405 Adriana Meda UDROIU BUSINESS CONTINUITY APPLIED TO eEDUCATION ...........................................................409 Olga Maria Cristina BUCOVETCHI, Dorel BADEA, Cristina Petronela SIMION THE ROLE OF THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS .............415 Ruxandra BULUC MANAGEMENT OF ELEARNING PLATFORMS SECURITY ................................................422 Ioan-Cosmin MIHAI, Laurențiu GIUREA NEW BIG DATA MODEL BASED ON SOCIAL LEARNING ENVIRONMENT USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.........................................................................................428 Marius Iulian MIHĂILESCU, Ştefania Loredana NIŢĂ, Valentin Corneliu PAU EU AND CYBER SECURITY ..........................................................................................................436 Dragoş Ionuţ ONESCU DYNAMIC FLIGHT SIMULATORS - THE ONGOING PARADIGM IN TRAINING HIGH PERFORMANCE PILOTS ........................................................................442 Dragos POPESCU, Adrian MACOVEI EXPERIENCE WITH AN EXPERT SYSTEM OF ON-GROUND HYPOXIA TRAINING......................................................................................................................450 Dragos POPESCU, Adrian MACOVEI SCHEDULING RESOURCE ALLOCATION – A MAJOR ISSUE IN IMPLEMENTING PROJECTS WITHIN ORGANIZATIONS ..............................................457 Mirela PUŞCAŞU, Luiza Maria COSTEA DECISION MODELS IN ROMANIAN BANKING SECTOR AFTER THE LAST WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN AHP APPROACH ............................463 Andrei RĂDUȚU, Ionuț Daniel POP THE MODELING OF THE AIR DEFENCE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS SUCH AS MULTIAGENTS ONES ..................................................................................................471 Vasile ŞANDRU THE IMPORTANCE OF EDUCATION RELATED TO CYBER CRIMES IN THE TRAINING INSTITUTIONS DEDICATED TO PUBLIC ORDER AND NATIONAL SECURITY-A CASE STUDY FOCUSED ON ROMANIAN MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS...........................................................................................481 Alexandra TULVAN, Georgică PANFIL APPROACHING ASSESSMENT IN EDUCATIONAL GAMES ................................................485 Antoniu STEFAN, Ioana Andreea STANESCU, Jannicke Baalsrud HAUGE, Sylvester ARNAB

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The 12th International Scientific Conference eLearning and Software for Education Bucharest, April 21-22, 2016 10.12753/2066-026X-16-060

THE ROLE OF THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Ruxandra BULUC National Defense University “Carol I”, Bucharest, Romania [email protected]

Abstract: The digital environment can aid intelligence analysts in several ways. Firstly, it is a source of information. Data and evidence can be obtained from various online sources and they can provide an insight not only into the possible actions the foreign actors may undertake but also into their motivations, their ways of reasoning, their world views. From this perspective, the digital environment can help enhance the analysts' awareness of the cultural components of mindsets, can aid them in developing a clear understanding of various ideologies by providing first hand (albeit indirect) insight into the way a foreign culture manifests itself, into its values, beliefs, assumptions, reasoning mechanisms and rationales. Secondly, computers can process the vast amount of information that is nowadays available to analysts, by organizing it according to topics, to threads of discussion. By constructing matrixes for the issues at hand, computer-assisted analysis facilitates a clearer picture of the event, highlights the points where a hypothesis may need further refinement and brings to light new connections that would have remained absconded if the information had not been organized thus. Thirdly, collaboration via a network can help analysts keep in contact with one another, it creates a virtual community in which analysts can pool not only the available information but also share resources, ideas, knowledge and expertise. The present article will look in turn at the ways in which the digital environment can aid intelligence analysts and it will pinpoint both the strong and the weak points of the process. Keywords: digital environment; mindsets; computer-assisted analysis; virtual communities.

The digital environment has altered the ways in which people interact with one another, the ways in which they share information, relate to facts and data that they are confronted with, the means through which they perform analyses, the bases for individual, national and international security. For these reasons, we believe that an in-depth analysis of the way intelligence analysis has come to be changed, shaped and transformed by the digital revolution is called for. Our focus is on intelligence analysis because this is a domain that no more than 20 years ago would have appeared incompatible with the open, unrestricted, uncontrolled and uncontrollable nature of the Internet. However, at present, intelligence analysts and decision-makers have become aware of the benefits that the digital world can bring them and have taken solid steps to incorporate these developments into their analytical and decisional processes. Consequently, three main avenues of investigation present themselves: (1) the way in which the cultural and ideological components of any society are revealed or can be identified from an analysis of the information found on-line; (2) the extent to which digital technology can help analysts process most amounts of information in order to identify trends, patterns of development, threads of discussion; (3) the way in which the digital environment can become a host to networks of collaboration among analysts so that they could share intelligence, insights, opinions, points of view and knowledge in real-time and thus improve the overall value of hypotheses, analyses, predictions. These aspects will be discussed in turn. I.

THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT AND CULTURAL MANIFESTATIONS

The digital environment offers fast, direct, widespread access to a society’s cultural manifestations in all their forms, through open sources of information such as websites, blogs, social media pages, email accounts, etc. Protected by an apparent anonymity, people go on-line and express their beliefs much more openly than they would any other way. These digital hubs are pools of raw information for intelligence analysts who can sift through it to identify trending concerns, ideological

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manifestations, beliefs, values, dangerous instigations, security concerns, possible risks and threats, emerging conflicts, etc. All these aspects are highly relevant for intelligence analysts because they bring up-to-date, real-time data for them to fine-tune their reports and even open new lines of inquiry. According to Fisher [5: 46], culture can be seen as a basic software for perception and reasoning. Culture is learned and internalized, hence Fisher’s definition of culture as “a system of mental habits” [5: 45] and these habits dictate the ways in which we perceive all the other information that we come into contact with. Ideologies, on the other hand, are cultural aspects that certain groups of people try to promote, condemn, impose, they are active and alterable components of different cultures. Together, cultures and ideologies impact not only on the ways in which individuals belonging to a particular society act, but also on the ways in which members from other societies interpret their actions. As G.C. Maior explains, intelligence and strategic knowledge have always been based on “an integrated approach to political, cultural, economic and social aspects, which, although multidisciplinary and eclectic, can offer a clear view of possible future attacks on security.” [8: 11]. He adds that without resorting to history, civilization, ethnicity, the most complex events and phenomena could not be interpreted. For this reason, we argue that the digital environment is the best tool for analysts to become familiar with other cultures’ inner workings, with their beliefs, values and mindsets as people manifest themselves freely on-line, there are places for everybody to express their opinions, messages can be sent under the cover of anonymity, and partnerships, organizations can operate without any traceable links between their members in the real world. MacNulty [10: 2-3] explains the best way in which analysts may be able to anticipate possible threats ahead of time is to get to know the enemy. This knowledge can help attain two important goals: firstly, to anticipate the enemy’s actions, one must first understand why the enemy undertakes those actions not solely what the actions are or how they are carried out; secondly, once comprehended, these actions could be influenced or lines of communication could be opened to prevent them. Analysts need to keep an open mind, to be able to detach themselves from their own culture and immerse themselves in the target culture in order to fully grasp the reasonings, intentions, mindsets of the enemy and to be able to predict/anticipate possible future courses of action. We are currently living in a world entangled in a war of ideologies and the better we comprehend other points of view, the more prepared we are to defend ourselves. As G.C. Maior points out, the trend in intelligence analysis is the shift from closed sources to open sources. He claims that “an analyst that remains exclusively faithful to processing information from closed sources runs the risk of not seeing the forest for the trees. Open sources, be they specialized literature, mass-media or other types, contribute to the formation of a general image, an overall awareness of certain phenomena that closed sources cannot provide” [8: 19] The digital environment with its multitude of available information can become overwhelming for even the most sophisticated and efficient analysts. Especially in situations with a big degree of uncertainty, “vast amounts of information and the challenge to navigate through a sea of available data and facts as well as the high exposure to manipulation and propaganda can lead to the emergence of a complex world of uncertainty” [8: 14]. The human brain can only deal with a certain amount of ambiguous information before it forces an interpretation onto those facts and cognitive closure appears. [6: 157]. Cognitive closure facilitates decision-making and protects against uncertainty even if this means eliminating certain pieces of information that are incongruous with the overall image that is beginning to form. However, the digital environment may prove its worth once more in this respect as it can aid analysts perform their tasks, sift through the material available, interact with their peers, organize information so that nothing relevant is left out, and we will look at these aspects in depth in the following sections. II.

COMPUTER-ASSISTED ANALYSIS

In a world in which there is so much information, the only way analysts can cope with it is with the aid of computer programs designed to sort the information according to topics, threads of discussion or keywords. Computer-assisted analysis is at the present the only way available to analysts to process the vast volumes of data that they receive every day. Before the advent of the Internet, analysts relied heavily on secret information, classified connections, spying etc. to obtain what they needed to produce intelligence reports. Nowadays, secret sources are losing in importance or better said in prevalence and

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open sources are gaining ground, as most of the information needed to evaluate a situation can nowadays be found online, on websites or social media. However, there are so many yottabytes (1024) of information to cover that computer programs come to the aid on analysts to carry the grunt of the burden. G. Treverton [14: 102] explains that problems in intelligence analysis can be divided into two categories: puzzles and mysteries. The puzzle is represented by those situations which can be solved, in principal, if there is access to information. It is concrete and is based on contexts, statistics, such as they are and not on human decisions. Mysteries are those abstract future-oriented situations which refer to political and societal issues and which evolve according to certain human decisions and that cannot be deduced from collected information [13: 4]. Treverton explains that for mysteries information that is collected from secret sources may be important, as classified information about an enemy’s actions may not be available from open sources. However, for puzzles, the information available is overwhelming. Consequently, the intelligence community’s business “will be information defined as high-quality understanding of the world using all sources, where secrets matter much less and where selection is the critical challenge” [14: 98]. Interpretation, not the level of classification, matters most in intelligence analysis today, as policy and decision-makers do not have the time to sift through vast amounts of information to form their own conclusions. As Treverton further details, “the age of information means that policy-makers will be more, not less, reliant on information brokers” [14: 103]. However, collection may be easier at present as so many open sources of information are available, but selection and interpretation are more challenging. “The Web is rich in sources but short on reliability” [14: 104]. Collection and analysis can no longer be separate. Analysts must become collectors themselves as they are the one especially trained to identify the relevant information, to process it, and to produce accurate reports. “Collectors praise the special something that analysts can provide by discriminating between good data and data appropriately destined for the cutting-room floor and by developing novel approaches and sources for information” [9: 242]. The information age might annihilate the differences between analysts and collectors, as collection needs to become a branch of analysis. Analysts are the only ones who can tell the difference between relevant and irrelevant, reliable and unreliable information, between facts, fiction and mistakes. To take the discussion of computer-assisted analysis one step further, one needs to acknowledge the fact that “the explosion in open source information and the democratization, through the Internet, of the means of production of content is also providing analysts, arguably for the first time ever, with insights into the views and thinking of the average individual. Intelligence collection has long been biased in the direction of elites such as government officials, but in a world of super-empowered common men and women and color-coded revolutions it is important that analysts have information with which to understand their issues as well” [9: 241]. This means that by using computers, the Internet and the web, analysts can, for the first time, get a sense of what ordinary people feel, think, intend to do. Analysts can interact first hand with materials produced in the very cultures they investigate, and they no longer have to rely on second hand information to reach them through secret channels. As argued in section 1, the best way to ascertain an enemy’s intentions is to directly investigate their cultural and ideological manifestations. We will analyze two aspects of computer-assisted analysis in what follows that underpin the two concepts discussed so far in this section: firstly, that an insight into the opponents’ culture is needed, and, secondly, that information needs to be structured to get the best interpretations from it. In the first case, the intelligence community realized some time ago, possibly not fast enough, that social media can play a vital role in getting first-hand information about cultures and ideologies, interests and intended actions, possible risks and threats from the interaction of average individual on and with social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc. Researchers Jamie Bartlett, Carl Miller and David Omand put forth in 2012 the term SOCMINT short for social media intelligence, which Jamie Bartlett, Jeremy Crump, Lynne Middleton and Carl Miller further developed in a study entitled Policing in the Information Age published in March 2013. As they explain, “Using social media to ‘crowd-source’ information is an important way of gaining valuable intelligence. ‘Listening’ to social media using powerful ‘big data’ acquisition and analytics tools can help the police [and intelligence analysts we would add] spot emerging events, piece together networks and groups, discern public attitudes and improve situational awareness” [3: 6].

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The four researchers put forth a distinction between four kinds of SOCMINT: Open source SOCMINT – information that is collected from open sources available to any member of the public, not only to analysts. Deception or interception are not used to aid collection in this case. ● Directed surveillance SOCMINT – information about an individual is collected from a public domain where there is some expectation of privacy (some settings that a person makes to ensure a minimal degree of privacy). This type of surveillance is used to build a detailed profile of a person of interest. ● Covert human intelligence sources SOCMINT – information that is obtained as a result of a covert operation whose purpose is to gain access to a person’s information using social media without raising suspicion. In this case, the analysts or officers who attempt to obtain the information do not reveal their identity. ● Intercept or intrusive covert surveillance SOCMINT – in this case, not only is the intelligence collected without the knowledge of the persons involved in the on-line communication, but it may also be modified or interfered with in some way (content, delays, etc.) It refers to any information coming from closed accounts, or to access to accounts or groups where any restriction has been placed limiting the access. It may also refer to accessing direct messages on social media where the information is supposed to be available only to the individuals involved [3: 9-11]. As far as the second aspect regarding computer-assisted analysis and its uses for the intelligence community is concerned, Richards J. Heuer discusses computer-assisted of competing hypotheses. As he defines it the analysis of competing hypotheses is a means of tackling complex and uncertain situations in which the information collected seems to support several hypotheses at the same time and an accurate prediction or interpretation does not present itself readily. “ACH proceeds by trying to refute hypotheses by assembling the available intelligence, reporting, open source information, and the informed logical deductions and assumptions of a knowledgeable analysts. (…) The ACH process reduces the risk of surprise by ensuring that less likely but possible hypotheses are identified and receive full consideration” [7: 253]. The evidence that is collected is gathered in a matrix that indicates the type of the source, its credibility, its relevance and then features the multiple hypotheses that can be deduced from the evidence, and the degree to which each piece of evidence is consistent with one, more or none of the generated hypotheses. A software has been developed to transfer ACH into the digital realm and to aid interactions between analysts over the hypotheses which may open up new avenues of investigation. Heuer quotes analysts’ views on computer-aided ACH and they believe that “the sharing of data, hypotheses, interpretations and questions among analysts and other nongovernment experts is possibly where the most insightful cognition is occurring rather than on the page of a finished assessment or a PowerPoint slide” [7: 257]. Computer-aided ACH also has a collaborative side which we will address further in next section. Computer programs can help sort information according to keywords. What they cannot as yet do is to ascertain the level of importance a certain piece of information may have. It may contain the keywords that the program was set to identify, but whether or not the information around those words justifies paying closer attention to it is impossible for a computer to decide. Human analysts’ jobs may be simplified by computer assistance, it may also be made more challenging. The software programs may be set to identify certain expressions, but those expressions sometimes need larger contexts in order to be interpreted well. There is so much information out there that it is impossible for any one agency alone to sift through it, to make sense of all the cultural aspects it encompasses, to identify all possible threats or developing concerns. Hence cooperation is needed. ●

III.

E-COLLABORATION AMONG ANALYSTS - VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES

One of the major benefits that the digital environment has brought the intelligence community is the fact that it has led to the formation of virtual communities based on what we would call ecollaboration. The need for collaboration among analysts has been stated by many researchers. Treverton [13: 116] speaks about the efforts made by PACOM (United States Pacific Command) to tap

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into the knowledge of NGOs with years of experience in different countries and with insight into the local politics, infrastructure and assets in order to obtain better and more reliable information. Moreover, Treverton [13: 132] explains that the intelligence community cannot claim to have “a monopoly on either the information or the wisdom” to address puzzles and mysteries and that it should also rely on experts in the academia and in the private sector. In Posaștiuc’s opinion [12: 39-40], information in the digital age comes from various sources from all over the world and it must be handled in real-time and with a thorough understanding of the dynamics of the process. Thus networking and IT have to become integral parts of the analytic process. The same view is held by Olaru [11: 62] who speaks about “collaborative intelligence” which relies on the use of interdisciplinary and interdepartmental teams to solve difficult problems. Treverton and Gabbard point out another benefit of collaboration among analysts and that is the creation of an arena in which fresh insights can appear because information is shared not cosseted. “Future analysis seeks to share information, not cosset it. It presumes that fresh insights will come precisely from those who do not have a need-to-know. For the ostensible experts, the future is overdetermined; they can cite a myriad of reasons why the future will turn out like the past. But a newcomer, one without obvious need to know, might see new patterns or hints of new futures” [13: 41]. Collaborative presupposes that people who work together are on an equal footing, they are peers and the fact that the environment is digital also leads to a decrease of pressure on those who may have less experience. Less experience is not necessarily a downside in intelligence analysis since it may bring a new outlook from a mind less constrained by already-existing mindsets. Several ways of integrating the collaborative approach to intelligence analysis have been implemented so far all with the aid of digital technology. Firstly, as previously stated in section 2, Heuer proposed a model of collaborative ACH. Collaborating over the matrices put forth in the computer-aided ACH may overcome the boundaries between different agencies and organizations. As Heuer explains, it facilitates “the crossfertilization of ideas [which] helps analysts avoid personal bias and generate more and better ideas. The matrix can combine inputs from analysts with different specialties. When analysts disagree, differences between matrices can be used to highlight the precise area of disagreement” [7: 258]. Serious problems that may affect intelligence reports could be overcome with the help of collaborative ACH. Firstly, it ensures that analysis starts “with a common definition of the problem” and that alternative explanatory hypotheses are clearly stated. Secondly, it ensures that no matter how many analysts participate in the discussions they all start from the same body of evidence and arguments and any new information they want to add will be evaluated and validated by the whole group. Thirdly, when analysts interact they can make one another’s implicit biases and assumptions explicit through a healthy exchange of differing opinions. Fourthly, it structures the debate providing a clear framework for the presentation of evidence, arguments, alternative opinions in a more open, less pressured environment than the formal setting of a coordination meeting. Another type of virtual collaboration was first suggested by D. Calvin Andrus in his groundbreaking article “Toward a Complex Adaptive Intelligence Community” of 2004. He explained at the time that “We must transform the Intelligence Community into a community that dynamically reinvents itself by continuously learning and adapting as the national security environment changes,” otherwise technology will get the better of the intelligence community [2]. Relying on Complexity Theory, Andrus drew a parallel between the six critical components of a complex adaptive system and the ways in which they can be translated for the intelligence community. This parallel is explained in the table below. Table 1 Comparison between the components of a complex adaptive system and the intelligence community Complexity Theory components

Adaptations for the Intelligence Community

Self-organization

Intelligence officers must be enabled to act more on their own

Emergence

Intelligence officers must be more expert in tradecraft

Relationships

Intelligence officers must share much more information

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Feedback

Intelligence officers must receive more feedback from the national security environment

Adaptability

Intelligence managers must be more persuasive about strategic

Non-linearity

objectives

Andrus suggested the use of tools such as the wiki and the blog in order to facilitate the sharing of information as well as the self-reliability of analysts. Interestingly enough, less than five years later in 2009, the American intelligence community had several such tools. It had, as R. Ackerman so aptly stated, embraced virtual collaboration [1]. The first and the most developed is Intellipedia, introduced in 2005. It works very much in the same way as Wikipedia as it uses the same software package, but it is more than a simple encyclopedia. Analysts use it as “a place for live collaboration” with more than 100,000 contributors across its domains. As Massimo Calabresi explains [4], Intellipedia operates in three spheres: unclassified, secret and top secret, with top secret being the most active, boasting 439,387 pages and 57,248 user accounts. It is not managed by ay one single person, but by a host of volunteers and it is also patrolled by so-called “shepherds” who keep track of pages with topics that they have expertise on. Authorship is not anonymous, as is the case with Wikipedia, and pages are created minutes after an event occurs. As Calabresi further explains, quoting Treverton, Intellipedia is a great way of presenting the known facts and the assumptions in a timely and constantly updated manner. Ackerman [1] also mentions other examples of social media on-line platforms that the intelligence community is adapting to suit its needs, such as iVideo, the community’s version of YouTube and blogs, on which analysts share information about topics pertaining to their areas of expertise and others are in a project phase, such as A-space, which combines features of Facebook and LinkedIn. The data is secured because the information on these sites is not stored on public servers but on government servers. Thus, the slow but so-much needed shift from the closed need-to-know to the open need-to-share environment is taking place. The aim of this article has been to look into ways in which the digital environment and its tools can impact, enhance and support intelligence analysis. Consequently, we have focused on three key areas. Firstly, the on-line environment is a source of genuine, first-hand, real-time information regarding a target’s culture, ideologies, beliefs, intended courses of action, etc. Secondly, computer-assisted analysis can aid the intelligence community to better process the vast amounts of information that are gathered and to produce better reports. This type of analysis also helps to include more analysts into the process and to benefit from their combined wider range of expertise and knowledge. This leads us to the third point on our agenda, namely e-collaboration and virtual communities. We have presented several types of on-line capabilities that strive to create a more diverse, open, on-line intelligence community with a view to fostering an environment in which opinions are shared, analysts collaborate and thus are able to provide decision-makers with more accurate and timely reports and more effective assessments of global trends and possible threats. Reference Text and Citations [1] [2]

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Ackerman, R.K., Intelligence Community Embraces Virtual Collaboration, May 2009 found at http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/1927, accessed at 10.01.2016. Andrus, C.D. Toward a Complex Adaptive Intelligence Community: The Wiki and the Blog found at https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csistudies/studies/vol49no3/html_files/Wik_and_%20Blog_7.htm accessed on 25.01.2016. Bartlett, J., Crump, J., Middleton, L., and Miller, C. Policing in the Information Age, March 2013, found at http://www.demos.co.uk/files/DEMOS_Policing_in_an_Information_Age_v1.pdf?1364295365, accessed on 30.01.2015. Calabresi, M., Wikipedia for Spies: The CIA Discovers Web 2.0, April 2009, found at http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1890084,00.html, accessed on 15.01.2016. Fisher, G. (1997). Mindsets. The Role of Culture and Perception in International Relations (2nd ed.). Yarmouth, Maine: Intercultural Press, Inc. Hatlebrekke, K. &. (2010). Towards a New Theory of Intelligence Failure? The Impact of Cognitive Closure and Discourse Failure. Intelligence and National Security 25:2 , 147-182.

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