energy security

Oxford Bibliographies: Energy Security

ENERGY SECURITY Aleh Cherp and Farhad Mukhtarov

Introduction Overviews Periodicals Historic energy security challenges Contemporary conceptualizations of energy security Measuring energy security Energy security as a political concept Energy security and international relations Security of geopolitics of oil Security of geopolitics of natural gas Security of other energy sources Security of electricity Energy security and climate change mitigation Data sources

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Introduction Energy security is a multidisciplinary field which overlaps with engineering and energy systems analysis, earth sciences, economics, technology studies, political science, international relations, security and military studies. Though discussions of energy security have been around for most of the 20th century, a systematic ‘energy security science’ has emerged only recently and is still a young and dynamic field. The structure and the borders of the area are widely debated and contested. Contemporary debates on energy security include dilemmas such as whether energy security is a ‘socially constructed concept’ or an objective property of energy systems, whether it is primarily a national-level issue or whether it also exists at different scales (household, local, regional and global), whether it relates only to conventional or also to ‘human security’, whether it is generic or context-dependent idea, and how it relates to other energy policy issues (e.g. Environmental and social impacts). The key outcomes of this debate include the idea that energy security relates to both shocks and

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stresses, includes both physical and economic aspects and relates to the “vital energy systems” which underpin stability and functioning of societies. Overviews There are no text books which provide a systematic and comprehensive overview of the field of energy security. Bohi and Toman (2011) provide a good early introduction to the topic from the economics perspective. Two handbooks edited by Sovacool (2011) and Dyer and Trombetta (2013) contain collections of valuable contributions but they nevertheless do not amount to a coherent overview of the field. The Global Energy Assessment’s chapter on Energy and Security (Cherp et al 2012) introduces and applies a single framework for both delineating and structuring the field of energy security which builds on the idea of vital energy systems and the three perspectives of energy security which we discuss in the *Conceptualization of energy security* sections. Three comprehensive literature reviews on energy security include Sovacool and Brown 2010, Cherp and Jewell (2011), as well as Jewell (2013). The World Energy Outlook published yearly by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is an excellent source of analysis and information on global energy, including energy security, issues.

Bohi, Douglas R, and Michael A Toman. 2011. The Economics of Energy Security. Springer.

The book, originally published in 1996, examines the assessment of energy security externalities for policy purpose and the case for using energy security as an argument for government intervention in energy markets. It views energy security from the economics perspective and does not analyze more recent international developments affecting the contemporary interpretation of energy security. Cherp, Aleh, Adeola Adenikinju, Andreas Goldthau, Larry Hughes, Jessica Jewell, Marina Olshanskaya, Jaap Jansen, Ricardo Soares, and Sergey Vakulenko. 2012. Energy and security. Global Energy

Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future: 325-383.

The Global Energy Assessment was a major effort to document contemporary energy challenges as well as feasible pathways to solve these challenges with available technologies and resources. The energy and security chapter provided an assessment of contemporary energy security challenges in over 130 countries using over 30 indicators based on the framework put forward by Cherp and Jewell (2011). 2


Cherp, Aleh, and Jessica Jewell. 2011. The three perspectives on energy security: intellectual history, disciplinary roots and the potential for integration. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 3 (4):202-212.

This review of some 63 pieces of literature traces the historic development of the energy security debate over the 20th and the early 21st century. It introduced the notion of vital energy systems and three epistemologically different perspectives on energy security, each with its roots in specific historic periods, policy problems and disciplinary insights. The review also contains an annotated bibliography on energy security. Dyer, Hugh, and Maria Julia Trombetta. 2013. International Handbook of Energy Security : Edward Elgar Publishing.

This edited volume has 24 contributions, many of whom are drawn from the field of international relations and political sciences. In the introduction, the editors summarize contemporary debates on energy security. The chapters are divided into several sections: security of supply, security of demand etc. IEA, International Energy Agency. Various years. World Energy Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency. *{http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org}*

World Energy Outlook is a comprehensive overview of the most recent energy trends, projections, and issues around the world. Energy issues associated with energy security such as trade and import dependence traditionally take prominent part in the Outlook. The most recent issues of the Outlook were focused on Brazil’s Energy Outlook and Outlook for Oil Markets (2013), Energy Efficiency and Iraq Energy Outlook (2012), Outlook for Russian Energy and Outlook for Coal Markets (2011) and Outlook for Natural Gas (2009). Jewell, Jessica. 2013. Energy security and climate change mitigation: The interaction in long-term global scenarios, Central European University. *{http://www.etd.ceu.hu/2013/jewell_jessica.pdf}*

This doctoral thesis available online contains the most comprehensive historic overview of various streams in energy security literature. Sovacool, Benjamin K. 2010. The Routledge handbook of energy security: New York:Routledge.

This edited volume consists of an introduction and 20 diverse contributions. The contributors represent a range of disciplines dominated by social scientists. Over half of the chapters explore various ‘dimensions’ of energy security including ‘energy poverty’, ‘efficiency’, ‘social and sustainable development’. This is one of the broadest delineation of energy security, inclusion of environmental and social 3


dimensions are especially contested. The remaining chapters discuss indicators and assessment methods for energy security, often considering it as a much more narrowly defined concept. Sovacool, Benjamin K., and Marilyn A. Brown. 2010. Competing dimensions of energy security: An international perspective. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 35:77-108.

This review proposes four dimensions of energy security (availability, accessibility, efficiency and environmental sustainability). It assigns 91 pieces of scholarship from 2003-2008 to one of these dimensions. The paper does not provide any detailed reviews of these articles using their own terms. It proceeds with calculating the compound energy security index of 21 OECD countries.

Periodicals Among journals, Energy Policy is the main outlet for energy security articles although influential opinions have also been published in Applied Energy, Energy, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability and a variety of political science and international relations journals. A recently launched Energy Research and Social Science journal promises to be an interesting outlet for future energy security research. Among non-academic sources the online Oil, Gas and Energy Law Intelligence (OGEL) and the European Energy Review feature frequent analysis and opinions on energy security issues. *{Energy Policy http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy-policy/}* is an international journal of

the political, economic, planning, environmental and social aspects of energy, including energy security. It has been the primary outlet for energy security publications in recent decades. Articles represent a variety of disciplinary approaches, but are usually accompanied by policy recommendations. *{Applied Energy http://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-energy/}* is the second most

popular outlet for energy security publications. Compared to Energy Policy it has a more technical focus, but social and political science pieces are often featured here as well. *{Energy http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy/}* is a multidisciplinary journal primarily

focused on engineering and infrastructure aspects of energy but often including publications on energy security

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Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability *{http://www.journals.elsevier.com/current-opinion-inenvironmental-sustainability/}*

is a review journal which periodically features energy-

dedicated issues (most recently in 2013 and 2011). The 2011 energy issue had energy security as one of its themes *{Energy Research and Social Science http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy-research-and-socialscience/}*

is a recently launched journal that aims to examine the relationship between

energy and the society. It is a promising outlet for future energy security research. *{Oil, Gas and Energy Law Intelligence http://www.ogel.org}* is an online journal published

since 2003 which has featured a large number of articles on energy security, especially related to fossil fuels *{European Energy Review http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id=1491}*

publishes original reports, interviews, analyses, viewpoints and debates, written by correspondents and energy professionals across Europe. Contributions on energy security are regularly featured in this periodical. It has been published from 2007.

Historic energy security challenges Energy was first linked with national security during the first decades of the 20th century, particularly with respect to security of supply of oil for navy ships and vehicles during World War I and later in World War II. These historic challenges and policy responses are vividly detailed in the Pullitzer-prize winning book by Daniel Yergin (1991) as well as by other papers (e.g. Sagan (1988)). In the second half of the last century, oil became essential not only for militaries but also for civil transportations and electricity production. The oil embargoes of the 1970s exposed vulnerabilities of industrialized Western countries to supply shocks and stimulated radical shifts in domestic energy policies and international energy regimes. These shifts were reflected upon in a wide range of political science and international relations literature such as Paust and Blaustein (1974), Krasner (1978), and Ikenberry (1986). Most of this literature conceptualized energy security in geopolitical terms, as a ‘state interest’, laying the foundations of what would be later called the sovereignty perspective on energy security (see the *Contemporary conceptualizations of energy security* section. Hughes and Lipscy (2013) provide an overview of this literature.

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Hughes, Llewelyn, and Phillip Y. Lipscy. 2013. The politics of energy. Annual Review of Political Science 16:449-469.

This review provides a historic analysis of the literature on energy politics highlighting the ‘golden age’ of such literature in the 1970s, when it was primarily dealing with oil embargoes and policy responses. Ikenberry, G. John. 1986. The irony of state strength: comparative responses to the oil shocks in the 1970s. International Organization 40 (01):105-137.

This paper compares responses of several Western countries to the oil shocks of the 1970s and analyzes the factors behind the difference in these responses. One of his key conclusions is that the most important determinant of response is policy instruments and institutional resources available to the government, which collectively constitute the state’s capacity. Krasner, Stephen D. 1978. Defending the national interest: Raw materials investments and US foreign

policy. NJ: Princeton University Press.

This classic book shows that the state has autonomous interests (including in energy security) which it is capable of pursuing even against the interests of private actors. Paust, Jordan J., and Albert P. Blaustein. 1974. Arab Oil Weapon--A Threat to International Peace. Am.

J. Int'l L. 68:1-31. *{http://www.jstor.org/stable/2200513}*

This paper introduces the term “oil weapon” which was subsequently widely used in energy security literature and modified into the “Russian gas/energy weapon” in the 2000s. Sagan, Scott D. 1988. The Origins of the Pacific War. Journal of Interdisciplinary History: 893-922.

This article demonstrates how the tension between Japan and the US over access to oil, which was essential to Japan’s energy security escalated into a major part of World War II. Yergin, Daniel. 2011. The prize: The epic quest for oil, money & power. New York: Simon and Schuster.

This seminal book traces the history of economics and politics of oil from early uses in the mid-nineteen century through its pivotal role in the world wars, geopolitics and economic development in the 20th century. It is written in engaging journalistic style and is full of anecdotal stories as well as facts, numbers, maps and photographs. It should be on the shelf of any energy security researcher. 6


Contemporary operationalization of energy security In the 1990s and 2000s the scope of energy security concerns significantly changed. It was no longer about stable and cheap supplies of oil protected from unilateral embargoes as in the 1970s, but involved other energy systems (natural gas, nuclear energy, electricity grids) and other types of vulnerabilities originating in political, economic, technical and natural factors (Yergin and Frei 2006). Some of the early conceptualizations of this shift were made by Yergin (1988) and Stirling (1994). The scholarly literature grappled with how to conceptualize, operationalize and measure these new energy security concerns. One scholarly tradition, led most notably by Benjamin Sovacool (2011) proceeded to identify an increasing number of ‘dimensions’ of energy security based on opinions of diverse stakeholders. This conceptualization resulted in an increasingly broad view of energy security which includes environmental, social and other aspects. Another social science tradition conceptualized energy security as having a “polysemic” nature different for different contexts (Chester 2010). In contrast, engineering and economic approaches sought to define energy security based on "objective" properties of energy systems (Winzer 2012). An influential author in this tradition is Andrew Stirling (1994, 2010) who identified different kinds of vulnerabilities such as shocks and stresses and argued for diversity as a measure of resilience of energy systems. Winzer (2012) summarizes a variety of contemporary definitions of security of energy supply. A synthetic review by Cherp and Jewell (2011) considers energy security as a politically constructed concept which is nevertheless rooted in properties of energy systems and governing institutions. It identified epistemologically distinct perspectives on energy security rooted in different policy problems and disciplinary approaches. Cherp, Aleh, and Jessica Jewell. 2011. The three perspectives on energy security: intellectual history, disciplinary roots and the potential for integration. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 3 (4):202-212.

This review conceptualizes energy security with reference to two novel ideas: (a) vital energy systems that support stability and functioning of modern societies and (b) three distinct ‘perspectives’: sovereignty, robustness and resilience, each with its roots in specific policy problems and disciplinary approaches. Chester, Lynne. 2010. Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature. Energy

Policy 38 (2):887-895.

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This widely cited paper explains how energy security can have different meanings in different contexts.

Sovacool, Benjamin K. 2011. Evaluating energy security in the Asia pacific: Towards a more comprehensive approach. Energy Policy 39 (11):7472-7479.

This is one of the ‘expansionist’ interpretations of energy security proposing 20 dimensions which can be measured by over 300 indicators. Stirling, Andrew. 1994. Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment: addressing the solution rather than the problem. Energy Policy 22 (3):195-216.

This is one of historically first papers analyzing vulnerabilities of electricity systems in liberal markets. It makes the first argument that diversity of electricity generating portfolio can be linked to their vulnerability to disruptions.

Stirling, Andy. 2011. From Sustainability, through Diversity to Transformation: Towards More Reflexive Governance of Vulnerability. Vulnerability in technological cultures: New directions in research

and governance, Cambridge: MIT Press [in press].*{ http://www. exeter. ac. uk/energysecurity/documents/publications/Stirling_chapter_on_resilience_to_transformation. pdf.}*

This chapter reviews various aspects of vulnerabilities of technological, including energy, systems. It introduced an important distinction of shocks and stresses and explains the concept of diversity of energy systems.

Winzer, Christian. 2012. Conceptualizing energy security. Energy Policy 46:36-48.

This work classifies definitions of energy security (which the author limits to security of supply) based on the origin and nature of risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems. It applies different conceptualizations to evaluating security of electricity supply in three countries demonstrating how different conceptualization can lead to different results.

Yergin, Daniel, and Frei Christopher. 2006. The new energy security paradigm. Davos: World Economic forum.

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The booklet provides a detailed argument of how energy security in the 2000s is different from the field shaped by oil supply shocks of the 1970s. Though still mostly rooted in international relations and oil geopolitics it points to the importance of technological change to ensuring energy security. Yergin, Daniel. 1988. Energy Security in the 1990s. Foreign Affairs 67(1): 110-132.

This is one of the earliest writings on ‘contemporary’ energy security (i.e. not connected to the 1970s oil shocks) which anticipates a variety of emerging concerns ranging from oil price volatility to rise in demand and inevitable depletion of conventional resources. Nevertheless, the focus is still primarily on oil security.

Measuring energy security Closely linked to *conceptualizing energy security* is the debate on how to operationalize and measure this politically ambiguous factor. While conceptualization is a prerequisite to appropriate measurement, the literature on measuring energy security has more direct policy relevance. In fact many of the contributions to this stream of literature have come out of policy think-tanks and governments. Therefore there is a very wide variety of articles and reports related to different methods of measuring energy security. In addition to the straightforward measures related to oil import dependence and vulnerability (Kendell 1998) which was used from the earlier days of energy security, more complex methods were introduced in the 1990s with respect to electricity systems summarized in a volume edited by Bazilian and Roques (2009). Since then, many systematic systems of energy security indicators have been proposed, including by Scheepers et al (2007) and by Kruyt et al (2009). The IEA’s Model of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES, Jewell 2011) proposes and uses a method for evaluating security of primary energy sources in OECD countries based on assessment of internal and external risks and vulnerabilities for eight different fuels and carriers. Jewell et al (2014) proposes a set of indicators for evaluating energy security in long-term scenarios. Both Cherp and Jewell (2013) and Gracceva and Zeniewski (2014) argue that energy security should be assessed with help of systematic assessment frameworks rather than separate indicators. Bazilian, Morgan, and Fabien Roques. 2009. Analytical methods for energy diversity and security:

portfolio optimization in the energy sector: a tribute to the work of Dr. Shimon Awerbuch. Vol. 12: Elsevier.

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This edited volume discusses and compares various methods of analyzing diversity in energy (primarily electricity generation) portfolios. It includes assessing risks, costs and fuel mix for electric utilities, applying the portfolio theory to identify optimal power generation portfolios, and applications of the mean-variance optimization model for electric utilities planning. Cherp, Aleh, and Jessica Jewell. 2013. Energy security assessment framework and three case-‐ studies. International Handbook of Energy Security, Cheltenham Glos, UK: Edward Elgar

Publishing: 146-73

The authors propose a generic framework for evaluating energy security which consists of five consecutive stages. The framework uses the idea of vital energy systems and the three perspectives on energy security (see section on *conceptualization of energy security*). The application of the framework is illustrated by three large-scale case-studies. Gracceva, Francesco, and Peter Zeniewski. 2014. A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system. Applied Energy 123:335-348.

The paper proposes an approach for evaluating energy security based on five properties of energy systems: stability, flexibility, resilience, adequacy and robustness. This conceptualization is subsequently applied to examine European Union’s energy security in decarbonization scenarios. Kendell, James M. 1998. Measures of oil import dependence. Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Department of Energy (DOE). *{http://www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/archive/issues98/oimport. html.}*

This web-article from the US Energy Information Agency is one of the earliest reports describing various indicators of oil import dependence and vulnerability. Jewell, Jessica. 2011. The IEA model of short-term energy security (MOSES): primary energy sources and secondary fuels: OECD Publishing. *{http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name-20557-en.html.}*

This method for assessing energy security looks at a large number of indicators designed to evaluate external and internal risks and resilience for eight fuels and carriers in OECD countries. It has been accepted by energy ministers and since its original introduction used in several countries. Jewell, Jessica, Aleh Cherp, and Keywan Riahi. 2014. Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices. Energy

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Policy 65:743-760.

This paper proposes a set of indicators and an approach to evaluate energy security under long-term scenarios, including under conditions when the configurations of energy systems would be very different from those at present. The assessment method is based on the framework by Cherp and Jewell (2013).

Kruyt, Bert, Detlef P. van Vuuren, H. J. M. De Vries, and H. Groenenberg. 2009. Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy 37 (6):2166-2181

This widely quoted study proposes a set of indicators of energy security which include resource scarcity, import dependence, diversity as well as combined indices. Scheepers, Martin, Ad Seebregts, Jacques de Jong, and Hans Maters. 2007. EU standards for energy security of supply. Gas 52:67.5.

This report introduces the ideas of ‘long-term energy security’ and ‘security of energy services’ which contrast many other studies focused on short-term risks to energy supply. It proposes a method (the so-called Supply-Demand Index) of assessing energy security based on the analysis of all components of energy systems. Energy security as a political concept Most studies quoted in the section on *measuring energy security* consider energy security as a property of energy systems which can be more or less objectively assessed. An alternative view of energy security considers it as a politically constructed concept. The literature in this stream is rooted in classic political science theories such as the securitization theory (Buzan et al 1998) and new institutionalism. Helm (2002) explains how the idea of energy security unfolded in the UK in the 1980s and the 1990s as a result of competing political interests and ideas. Chester (2010) articulated the fact that energy security has its different meanings in different contexts. Kern et al (2013) explain more recent evolution of energy security interpretations in the UK in terms of a policy paradigm shift. Leung et al (2014) consider a similar process in China, explaining the mainstream interpretation of energy security as a result of the political securitization process. Among few contemporary studies analyzing energy security as a political problem there is a notable empirical analysis by Cheon and Urpelainen (2014).

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Buzan, Barry, Ole Wæver, and Jaap De Wilde. 1998. Security: a new framework for analysis: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

This book explores non-conventional threats to security and introduces the concept of ‘securitization’ by which an ordinary policy issue may become a security issue. Though the book itself does not explore energy security, the concept of ‘securitization’ is currently used in political analysis of energy security. Cheon, Andrew, and Johannes Urpelainen. 2014. Escaping Oil's Stranglehold When Do States Invest in Energy Security? Journal of Conflict Resolution:0022002713520529.

Using empirical analysis, the paper shows how Western countries responded to oil supply shocks of the 1970s by investing in energy. This is one of a few contemporary classic articles analyzing energy security as a political problem. Chester, Lynne. 2010. Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature. Energy

Policy 38 (2):887-895.

This paper argues for interpretation of energy security as a ‘polysemic’ concept which assumes different meanings in different contexts and for different audiences. Helm, Dieter. 2002. Energy policy: security of supply, sustainability and competition. Energy Policy 30 (3):173-184.

The paper provides a historic overview of interpretation of energy security in UK from the era dominated by coal strikes of the 1970s through energy markets liberalization and concerns over under-investment in power generation capacities. Also how political discourses linked interpretations of energy security with ideas of competitiveness and sustainability. Hughes, Llewelyn, and Phillip Y. Lipscy. 2013. The politics of energy. Annual Review of Political Science 16:449-469.

This review considers the historic evolution of the main problems and ideas in ‘energy politics’ which is a field of study closely related to energy security. Ikenberry, G. John. 1986. The irony of state strength: comparative responses to the oil shocks in the 1970s. International Organization 40 (01):105-137.

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This paper compares responses of several Western countries to the oil shocks of the 1970s and analyzes the factors behind the difference in these responses. One key conclusion is the most important determinant of response is policy instruments and institutional resources available to the government, which collectively constitute state’s capacity. Kern, Florian, Caroline Kuzemko, and Catherine Mitchell. 2013. Measuring and explaining policy paradigm change: The case of UK energy policy. Policy & Politics 42 (2).

The paper explains how the evolving interpretation of energy security, sustainability and the role of the state affected the UK’s energy policy in the 1990s-2010s. It follows a classic political science theory of policy paradigm shift. Leung, Guy C. K., Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell, and Yi-Ming Wei. 2014. Securitization of energy supply chains in China. Applied Energy 123:316-326.

The paper traces evolution of energy security discourse in China for seven decades. It explains contemporary interpretation of energy security not only by state interests and configuration of China’s energy system, but the power of National Oil Corporations. It draws on the theory of vital energy systems and securitization theory. Energy security and international relations According to Hancock and Vivoda (2014) it was the oil shocks of the 1970s which formed a new field within the international relations and political science studies: the International Political Economy. Since then, energy security has often attracted attention of international relations scholars in such prominent journals as Foreign Policy often containing sweeping overviews and bold policy prescriptions (Yergin (2006), Victor and Yueh (2010)). There are also more recent and studies specifically empirically focused on particular international relations affected by energy, most notably the EU-Russia’s relations (Kuzemko 2014, Stegen 2011) and the US-China relations (Downs 1999, Zweig and Jianhai 2005, Nyman 2014).

Downs, Erica S. 1999. The Chinese energy security debate. The China Quarterly 177: 21–41. doi:10.1017/S0305741004000037.

This is one of the best analysis of China’s energy security issues and their international implications, prepared almost 15 years before China became the world's largest oil importer in 2013. 13


Hancock, Kathleen J., and Vlado Vivoda. 2014. International political economy: a field born of the OPEC crisis returns to its energy roots. Energy Research & Social Science 1: 206-216.

The authors argue for a revival of political economy of international energy relations. They provide review of both historic and contemporary literature relevant to the topic. Kuzemko, Caroline. 2014. Ideas, power and change: explaining EU–Russia energy relations. Journal of

European Public Policy 21 (1): 58-75.

The author tracks the evolution of energy relations between Russia and the European Union within the framework of new institutionalism. It demonstrates different, contesting and divergent interpretations of energy security in Europe. Nyman, Jonna. 2014. 'Red Storm Ahead': Securitisation of Energy in US-China Relations. Millennium-

Journal of International Studies: 0305829814525495.

By analyzing the US Government’s ban on China’s purchase of US energy companies the author argues that energy relations between China and the US have a clear security aspect. Smith Stegen, Karen. 2011. Deconstructing the "energy weapon": Russia's threat to Europe as case study. Energy Policy 39 (10):6505-6513.

The paper contains an excellent political science analysis of energy security by examining the past evidence and the future possibility that Russia will use the energy weapon’, deliberate disruptions of gas supply to achieve political concessions from the European Union.

Victor, David G, and Lunda Yueh. 2010. The New Energy Order. Foreign Affairs (1): 61–73.

The paper analyses the global energy security challenges and comes with a range of proposals for new international regimes and organizations to address these challenges.

Yergin, Daniel. 2006. Ensuring energy security. Foreign Affairs 85(2): 69-82.

The classic discussion of the ‘new’ energy security challenges related to the scarcity of conventional oil, increasing dependence of Europe on imported natural gas and the rise of demand in China. The paper contains several recommendations for ensuring stability of global energy markets. 14


Zweig, D., and B. Jianhai. 2005. China's Global Hunt for Energy. Foreign Affairs, JSTOR: 25-38.

This is a classic representation of China’s foreign policy as a reflection of its own energy security issues. Security and geopolitics of oil Oil was at historic origin of energy security concerns throughout the two world wars and the third quarter of the last century highlighted through a series of politically motivated embargoes and price hikes. According to the Global Energy Assessment (Cherp et al 2012) oil is still at the heart of global energy security, affecting virtually every country in the world. One of the factors which makes oil such a prominent energy security concern is the scarcity of conventional oil resources, expressed in the idea of ‘peak oil’ (Campbell and Laherrerre 2012). A connected problem is the rapid rise of oil consumption in Asia, particularly in China (Leung 2011). Some scholars predict that in the near future, scarcity of oil and rising demands may lead to a break-down in the oil market and so-called ‘resource wars’ (Klare 2002), though this view is strongly criticized (e.g. Jaffe et al 2008). Another security risk associated with oil is its effects on exporting nations, so-called ‘petro-states’ (Karl 1997). The reality of ‘peak oil’ is widely debated (Hughes and Rudolph 2011, Rogner et al 2012), particularly under advance of unconventional resources in the North America. Campbell, Colin J., and Jean H. Laherrère. 2012. The end of cheap oil. Scientific American 278 (3):78-83.

This widely cited paper popularly explains why the world production of conventional ‘cheap’ oil will inevitably peak in the first half (possibly in the first quarter) of this century. The article does not explore whether technological advances can make the so-called ‘unconventional’ oil resources sufficiently cheap.

Cherp, Aleh, Adeola Adenikinju, Andreas Goldthau, Larry Hughes, Jessica Jewell, Marina Olshanskaya, Jaap Jansen, Ricardo Soares, and Sergey Vakulenko. 2012. Energy and security. Global Energy


Through analyzing over 30 energy security indicators in 134 countries this report shows how pervasive are oil security of supply problems worldwide. Hughes, Larry, and Jacinda Rudolph. 2011. Future world oil production: growth, plateau, or peak?

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Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 3 (4):225-234.

This is a review article containing a systematic examination of arguments ‘for’ and ‘against’ peak oil. Jaffe, Amy Myers, Michael T. Klare, and Nader Elhefnawy. 2008. The Impending Oil Shock: An Exchange. Survival 50 (4):61-82.

This exchange of arguments problematizes the possibility of ‘resource wars’ over oil as suggested by Klare (2002). Karl, Terry Lynn. 1997. The paradox of plenty: Oil booms and petro-states. Berkley: Univ of California Press.

The book explains how the abundance of oil resources may impede democracy and stimulate conflict and political instability in low-income countries. Klare, Michael. 2002. Resource wars: The new landscape of global conflict. New York: Henry Holt.

This book explores both scarcity of oil and demand growth in Asia to identify a risk of large-scale inter-state conflicts over the remaining oil resources, particularly in Africa. Leung, Guy C. K. 2011. China's energy security: Perception and reality. Energy Policy 39 (3):1330-1337.

The author shows the importance of oil to China’s economy and explains why oil consumption in China will inevitably grow. Rogner, Hans-Holger, Roberto F. Aguilera, Cristina L. Archer, S. C. Bhattarcharya, and Maurice B. Dusseault. 2012. Energy resources and potentials. Global Energy Assessment (GEA),

Cambridge University Press, New York: 425-512.

This chapter contains one of the most authoritative assessments of global energy resources, including those of oil. The authors are skeptical concerning the ‘peak oil’ theory. Security and geopolitics of natural gas Since the early 2000s, the energy security literature has become increasingly engaged with security of energy sources other than oil. In particular, concerns were raised over global gas resources, increasing demand, and geographic concentration of 16


production (Reymond 2007). Prompted by the interruptions of Russian gas supply to Ukraine in the mid-2000s, a number of papers explored vulnerability of European countries to natural gas supply (Söderbergh et al 2008), analysis of potential risks associated with Russia (Larsson 2006) and detailed relationships between Russia and European countries (Goldthau 2008, Stegen 2011). More recently, analysis of gas supply security prompted discussion of shale gas in Europe (Stevens 2010 and IEA 2009). In a separate stream security of gas supply in Asia was analyzed (Cabalu 2010). Cabalu, Helen. 2010. Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia. Energy Policy 38 (1):218-225.

The article is one of the pioneering explorations of natural gas supply security beyond Europe. It identifies key countries and issues for the emerging major global gas market. Goldthau, Andreas. 2008. Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply. Energy

Policy 36 (2):686-692.

The paper analyzes the balance of power between Russia and the EU concluding that mutual interdependence is not likely to make Russia to use the ‘energy weapon’. *IEA. 2009. World Energy Outlook 2009. Paris: OECD/IEA. {http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org}*

In addition to a standard analysis of world energy trends and projections which are present in every Outlook, this issue has a special section analyzing natural gas, especially shale gas, prospects. Larsson, Robert L. 2006. Sweden and the NEGP: A Pilot Study of the North European Gas Pipeline and Sweden's Dependence on Russian Energy: Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Defence Analysi s.

This extremely detailed report argues that and explains the reasons why the Russian state is likely to seek increased control over its energy sector and use energy for achieving geopolitical purposes. Reymond, Mathias. 2007. European key issues concerning natural gas: Dependence and vulnerability.

Energy Policy 35 (8):4169-4176.

This paper analyses the growth of demand and existing reserves and production of natural gas in the world as well as vulnerabilities of European Union countries to excessive dependence on natural gas imports from Russia. 17


Smith Stegen, Karen. 2011. Deconstructing the "energy weapon": Russia's threat to Europe as case study. Energy Policy 39 (10):6505-6513.

The paper contains excellent political science analysis by examining the past evidence and the future possibility that Russia will use the energy weapon’, deliberate disruptions of gas supply to achieve political concessions from the European Union. Söderbergh, Bengt, Kristofer Jakobsson, and Kjell Aleklett. 2009. European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production. Energy Policy 37 (12):5037-5055.

This paper uses the ‘peak’ theory to analyze the future of natural gas production in Norway, which along with Russia is a major supplier of the European Union. Stevens, Paul. 2010. The 'Shale Gas Revolution': Hype and Reality. London: Chatham House

This analysis explains why the US shale gas revolution is unlikely to be repeated in Europe.

Security of other energy sources Although security of oil and natural gas supply dominate contemporary energy security debates, other energy sources and energy infrastructure also attract attention of policy makers. In the late 2000s, the International Energy Agency, which was founded to ensure a global oil market, began discussing "comprehensive energy security". The Agency's subsequent Model for Short-term energy security (Jewell 2011) considers security of coal, biofuels and refined oil products and the Global Energy Assessment (Cherp et al 2012) looks at security of nuclear energy, hydroelectricity, biomass, as well as electricity supply and end-uses in transport, industry and the residential sector. Potential issues associated with security of coal supply are discussed by Kessels et al (2008). The relationship between nuclear energy and energy security is discussed in OECD NEA (2010) building on the earlier work from Scheepers (2007) on measuring energy security (see the *measuring energy security* section). Energy security risks associated with new renewables (solar and wind) have not yet been widely analyzed, but Johansson (2013) provides a good overview and Grave et al (2012) a more detailed engineering analysis in case of Germany. Both the latter study and Morey and Kirsch (2014) are cautious about security of renewable electricity study. On the other hand a long-term scenario with large deployment of imported renewable 18


electricity for Europe analyzed by Lilliestam and Ellenbeck (2011) shows that such schemes do not entail significant extortion risks. Cherp, Aleh, Adeola Adenikinju, Andreas Goldthau, Larry Hughes, Jessica Jewell, Marina Olshanskaya, Jaap Jansen, Ricardo Soares, and Sergey Vakulenko. 2012. Energy and security. Global Energy


The chapter systematically analyses energy security of all major energy sources (nuclear, hydro, biomass, etc.), electricity systems and end-use services in 134 countries. It considers a wide range of vulnerabilities ranging from demand growth and aging of infrastructure to blackouts induced by natural events and technological dependencies in nuclear energy. Grave, Katharina, Moritz Paulus, and Dietmar Lindenberger. 2012. A method for estimating security of electricity supply from intermittent sources: scenarios for Germany until 2030. Energy Policy 46:193-202.

This is a detailed technical analysis of what it will take to achieve security of electricity supply with large penetration of wind and solar energy in Germany. Lilliestam, Johan, and Saskia Ellenbeck. 2011. Energy security and renewable electricity trade: Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the 'energy weapon?' Energy Policy 39 (6):3380-3391.

This analysis discusses potential energy security implications of large-scale imports of renewable energy from North Africa and Middle East to Europe. It finds that vulnerabilities of such import would not be significant if Europe acts as a single electricity market.

Jewell, Jessica. 2011. The IEA model of short-term energy security (MOSES): primary energy sources and secondary fuels: OECD Publishing. *http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name-20557-en.html*

The framework identifies key risks and vulnerabilities of oil and its products, natural gas, coal, biomass and waste, renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, and ocean energy) and nuclear power. The methodology has been used by the IEA and several member countries for energy security analysis extending beyond oil supplies. Johansson, Bengt. 2013. Security aspects of future renewable energy systems-A short overview. Energy

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61:598-605.

A general overview of energy security issues associated with renewable energy.

Kessels, J. R, Stefan Bakker, and Bas Wetzelaer. 2008. Energy Security and the Role of Coal. Paris: IEA Clean Coal Centre.

This report produced by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Clean Coal Center examines the impact on energy security strategies of substituting oil and gas by coal especially in India and China. It concludes that using coal will lead to reduced import dependence but also decreased diversity of energy

options. Morey, M., and L. Kirsch. 2014. Germany's Renewable Energy Experiment: a Made-to-Order Catastrophe. The Electricity Journal 27(5):6–20.

This very accessible but somewhat controversial piece argues that renewable electricity is not only too costly. OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. 2010. The Security of Energy Supply and the Contribution of Nuclear

Energy. Paris: OECD.

This is one of the most comprehensive discussions of the contribution of nuclear energy to energy security. It should be noted that it represents a perspective of an agency charged with promoting nuclear energy. Security of electricity The literature on energy infrastructure has primarily focused on electricity generation and transmission since they are among the energy systems which are absolutely vital for modern societies. Since electricity is rarely imported, most of this literature focuses on engineering and economic aspects of electricity generation. Already in the early 1980s Lovins and Lovins (1982) argued that centralized electricity supply systems are far more vulnerable than distributed generation from small-scale renewable sources. An increasing interest in security of electricity system emerged in the 1990s due to liberalization of electricity markets in the UK (Stirling 1994, Awerbuch 1995) and summarized in a volume edited by Bazilian and Roques (2009). Farrell et al (2004) conceptually and empirically explore vulnerability of energy infrastructure, including electricity systems. Blackouts, a large-scale outages of electricity are of special concern to energy security researchers and are covered and reflected upon in several good

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studies by Dobson et al 2007 and Yu and Pollitt 2009 as well as an authoritative opinion piece in the Electricity Journal (2013) Awerbuch, Shimon. 1995. Market-based IRP: It's easy!!! The Electricity Journal 8 (3):50-67.

The article introduces a method for analyzing risks of investments in various electricity generation portfolios. Bazilian, Morgan, and Fabien Roques. 2009. Analytical methods for energy diversity and security:

portfolio optimization in the energy sector: a tribute to the work of Dr. Shimon Awerbuch . Vol. 12: Elsevier.

A collection of contributions for analyzing diversity and other related characteristics of electricity systems. Many of the contributions are inspired by Stirling (1994) and Awerbuch (1995). Dobson, Ian, Benjamin A. Carreras, Vickie E. Lynch, and David E. Newman. 2007. Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts: Cascading failure, critical points, and self-organization. Chaos: An

Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 17 (2):026103.

An application of complex system theory to explaining why blackouts occur and persist in complex liberalized electricity systems.

Farrell, Alexander E., Hisham Zerriffi, and Hadi Dowlatabadi. 2004. Energy infrastructure and security.

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 29:421-469.

This comprehensive review summarizes the knowledge about exposure to risks and vulnerability of energy infrastructure. Lovins, Amory B., and L. Hunter Lovins. 1982. Brittle power: Brick House Publishing Company.

The book argues for inherent vulnerability of centralized electricity supply systems relying on fossil fuels and nuclear power. It argues that decentralized systems based on renewable energy are more resilient. Stirling, Andrew. 1994. Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment: addressing the solution rather than the problem. Energy Policy 22 (3):195-216.

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This is a pioneering article explaining why diversity is important for security of electricity supply and proposing a method to assess such diversity based on concepts borrowed from mathematical ecology.

The Electricity Journal. 2013. On 10th Anniversary of 03 Blackout, What Have We Learned?. The

Electricity Journal 26(8):1–6.

This short piece contains a very useful table summarizing major electricity blackouts and their effects. Yu, William, and Michael G. Pollitt. 2009. Does Liberalisation Cause More Electricity Blackouts?:

Evidence from a Global Study of Newspaper Reports : Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

In contrast to Dobson et al (2007) this paper does not find an empirical link between blackouts and electricity market liberalization.

Energy security and climate change mitigation There is an emerging literature on the interaction between energy security and climate change mitigation policies. On the one-hand is a stream of literature which focuses on the tensions and synergies of the "energy security–climate nexus" in specific political, institutional and legal environments (Froggat et al. 2013, Bazilian et al. 2011, Rosen 2009). Another stream of literature tries to square the long-term, global nature of climate change with the short-term national nature of energy security (Jewell 2013) by analyzing their interaction in long-term climate mitigation scenarios. Jewell (2013) and Jewell et al (2014) present good summaries of these studies. Notable contributions include Bollen et al (2010) and McCollum et al (2014) who calculate the "energy security co-benefits" of climate mitigation policies with a single metric of energy security. There is also a series of articles on the energy security implications of climate change mitigation in the EU (e.g. Gracceva and Zeniewski 2014). Bazilian, Morgan, Benjamin F. Hobbs, Will Blyth, Iain MacGill, and Mark Howells. 2011. Interactions between energy security and climate change: A focus on developing countries. Energy Policy 39 (6):3750-3756.

This paper studies the interaction between climate change and energy security policy imperatives in the case of a new coal plant in South Africa and argues that 22


expanding electricity access is generally prioritized over climate change protection. Bollen, Johannes, Sebastiaan Hers, and Bob Van der Zwaan. 2010. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Energy Policy 38 (8):4021-4030.

The paper models energy systems transformations to demonstrate how climate mitigation and energy security goals can be achieved simultaneously. Froggatt, Antony, Caroline Kuzemko, Estelle Rouhaud, C. Mitchell, J. Watson, and J. Whiting. 2013. The energy security-climate nexus and the environment. New Challenges in Energy Security: the UK

in a Multipolar World, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan: 44-67.

This book chapter analyzes the four pillars of energy policy in the UK and how they are negotiated between and within institutions. The authors argue that there needs to be a national debate on the trade-offs and potential synergies between different energy agendas. Gracceva, Francesco, and Peter Zeniewski. 2014. A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system. Applied Energy 123:335-348.

The paper proposes an original framework to analyze energy security and demonstrates how low-carbon transformation in Europe can make energy systems more secure. Jewell, Jessica. "Energy security and climate change mitigation: The interaction in long-term global scenarios." PhD diss., Central European University, 2013. *{http://www.etd.ceu.hu/2013/jewell_jessica.pdf}*

The dissertation contains an overview of the literature on interaction between energy security and climate mitigation and an analysis of energy security in 70 long-term decarbonization scenarios by 6 energy models. Energy security is analyzed globally and regionally under various assumptions, GDP growth, fossil availability, technological constraints and climate policies. Jewell, Jessica, Aleh Cherp, and Keywan Riahi. 2014. Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices. Energy

Policy 65:743-760.

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This paper proposes and applies an assessment framework and a set of indicators to evaluate energy security in some 40 scenarios of low-carbon transitions. McCollum, David L., Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Peter Kolp, Arnulf Grubler, Marek Makowski, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic. 2013. Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges. Climatic change 119 (2):479-494.

This paper uses and integrated assessment model to argue that addressing climate and energy security challenges together is cheaper than in isolation. Rosen, Mark E. 2009. Energy independence and climate change: The economic and national security consequences of failing to act. U. Rich. L. Rev. 44:977.

This law review article covers the regulatory and legal challenges and opportunities to simultaneously reducing energy independence and mitigating climate change in the U.S.

Data sources Energy security analysis relies on extensive quantitative data about energy systems, including primary energy sources, infrastructure, energy trade and final energy use. In recent years many excellent and up-to-date data sources came online. These include historic and present energy data as well as scenarios projecting potential developments of energy systems in the future. *{International Energy Agencys (IEA) statistics. http://www.iea.org/statistics/}*

is one of the most

comprehensive sources of energy statistics in the world. It presents data in a variety of forms (e.g. as sankey diagrams) and is regularly updated. *{U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.gov}*

provides a large number of

historic and present data on all energy use in all countries in the world. In addition it provides a variety of data tools and models. *{BP Statistical Review of World Energy. http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html}*

is a smaller dataset than those provided by

the IEA and the US EIA. However, the ability to download data in Microsoft Excel format make them especially suitable for interpretation and analysis.

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*{Global Energy Assessment Database (GEA). http://www.globalenergyassessment.org}*

is an

open-access database on the GEA’s transformation pathways. It presents data on over 40 scenarios of low-carbon energy transformations in the 21st century. The data are divided by primary and secondary sources, greenhouse gas emissions, energy enduses, trade flows, regions and other categories. *{IPCC Assessment Report 5 Scenarios Database. https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/webapps/ene/AR5DB/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome}*

hosted by the International Institute for

Applied Systems Analysis in Austria uses the same interface as the GEA database to provide datasets related to scenarios of energy development in the 21st century as modeled by leading Integrated Assessment Models and used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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