Environment, energy, and economy: Strategies for

Environment, energy, and economy: Strategies for sustainability

see pages 279, 280

Seite 1 von 2

The mentioned piece of work is cited in the following publications:

Environment, energy, and economy: Strategies for sustainability Table of Contents Edited by Yoichi Kaya and Keiichi Yokobori United Nations University Press TOKYO • NEW YORK • PARIS © The United Nations University, 1997 The United Nations University is an organ of the United Nations established by the General Assembly in 1972 to be an international community of scholars engaged in research, advanced training, and the dissemination of knowledge related to the pressing global problems of human survival, development, and welfare. Its activities focus mainly on peace and conflict resolution, development in a changing world, and science and technology in relation to human welfare. The University operates through a world wide network of research and postgraduate training centres, with its planning and coordinating headquarters in Tokyo. The United Nations University Press, the publishing division of the UNU, publishes scholarly books and periodicals in the social sciences, humanities, and pure and applied natural sciences related to the University’s research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press The United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150, Japan Tel: (03) 3499-2811 Fax: (03) 3406-7345 Telex: J25442 Cable: UNATUNIV TOKYO UNU Office in North America 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-1462-70, New York, NY 10017 Tel: (212) 963-6387 Fax: (212) 371-9454 Telex: 422311 UN UI United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Joyce C. Weston Printed in the United States of America UNUP-911 ISBN 92-808-0911 -3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Environment, energy, and economy: strategies for sustainability/ edited by Yoichi Kaya and Keiichi Yokobori. "This document represents the proceedings of the Tokyo Conference on 'Global Environment, Energy, and Economic Development' held at the United Nations University Headquarters in Tokyo, 25-27 October 1993" - Preface. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 9280809113 (pbk.) 1. Sustainable development - Congresses. 2. Economic development - Environmental aspects - Congresses. 3. Environmental policy - Congresses. I. Kaya, Yoichi, 1934-. II. Yokobori, Keiichi, 1940-. III. Tokyo Conference on "Global Environment, Energy, and Economic Development" (Tokyo, Japan: 1993) HC79.E5E5726 1997 333.79 - dc21 97-21167 CIP

Contents Preface

http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee00.htm

29.11.2006

Environment, energy, and economy: Strategies for sustainability

Seite 2 von 2

1. Introduction Part 1 - Global issues and response strategies: Overview 2. Past issues and new problems: A plea for action 3. Policy measures for global environmental problems: A Japanese perspective 4. Environment, economy, energy, and sustainable development

Part 2 - The status of the global environment 5. Climate changes due to the increase in greenhouse gases as predicted by climate models 6. Deforestation and desertification in developing countries Comments on part 2

Part 3 - Energy-economy interactions in stabilizing CO2 emissions 7. Modelling economically efficient abatement of greenhouse gases 8. Macroeconomic costs and other side-effects of reducing CO2 emissions 9. The effects of CO2 reduction policies on energy markets Comments on part 3 1. Lawrence R. Klein 2. Warwick J. McKibbin 3. Kenji Yamaji Appendix to part 3 examining the macroeconomic effects of curbing CO2 emissions with the Project LINK world econometric model

Part 4 - Long-term strategies for mitigating global warming 10. The role of technology in energy/economy interactions: A view from Japan 11. Global and renewable energy: Potential and policy approaches 12. Energy efficiency: New approaches to technology transfer 13. Decarbonization as a long-term energy strategy

Part 5 - Energy issues in developing countries 14. The crisis of rural energy in developing countries 15. The developing world: the new energy consumer 16. The role of rural energy Comments on part 5

Part 6 - Long-term strategies of developing countries 17. Leapfrogging strategies for developing countries 18. A development-focused approach to the environmental problems of developing countries 19. Economic development, energy, and the environment in the people's Republic of China Comments on part 6

Contributors

http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee00.htm

29.11.2006

13. Decarbonization as a long-term energy strategy

Contents -

Seite 1 von 9

Previous - Next

13. Decarbonization as a long-term energy strategy Nebojsa Nakicenovic The possibility of less carbon-intensive and even carbon-free energy as major sources of energy during the next century is consistent with the long-term dynamic transformation and structural change of the energy system. Natural gas seems the likely transitional fuel that would enhance the reduction in other adverse impacts of energy use on the environment as well as substantial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Natural gas could be the bridge to carbon-free energy sources such as hydrogen (Nakicenovic, 1993a). Global primary energy use has evolved from reliance on traditional energy sources to being based on fossil fuels, first coal and steam then oil and natural gas, and more recently (but to a lesser extent) on nuclear and hydro-energy. Figure 13.1 shows the competitive struggle among the five main sources of primary energy as a dynamic substitution process. Fuelwood and traditional energy sources dominated primary energy until 1880. Coal, the major energy source between 1880 and 1960, was the basis for the massive expansion of railroads and the growth of steel, steamships, and many other sectors. Since 1960, oil has assumed a dominant role at the same time as the automotive, petrochemical, and other industries have matured. The current reliance on coal in many developing countries illustrates the gap between the structure of primary energy supply and actual final energy needs. Fig. 13.1 Global primary energy substitution, 1860-1980, and projections to 2050 (expressed in fractional market shares, f. Note: Smooth lines represent model calculations and jagged lines are historial data. "Solfus" is a term employed to describe a major new energy technology, for example solar or fusion)

During the past two centuries, global consumption of primary energy has increased about 2 per cent per year, doubling on average about every 35 years. As a result, emissions and other environmental effects of energy conversion and end-use have also increased. Current annual emissions are about 6 gigatons (billion tons) of carbon or more than 20 gigatons of CO2. Most of the anthropogenic atmospheric CO 2 is due to fossil energy use and deforestation. Fossil energy consumption contributed more than two-thirds of all human sources of CO2. The largest single source of energy-related carbon emissions is coal (about 43 per cent), followed by oil (around 39 per cent) and gas (less than 18 per cent). In general, the instrumental determinants of future energy-related CO2 emissions can be described by the Kaya identity. The Kaya identity establishes a relationship between population growth, per capita value added, energy per unit of value added, and CO2 emissions per unit of energy on one side of the equation, and total carbon dioxide emissions on the other (Yamaji et al., 1991). CO2 = (CO2/E) X (E/GDP) x (GDP/P) x P. where E represents energy consumption, GDP the gross domestic product or value added, and P population. Changes in CO2 emissions can be described by changes in these four factors. Two of these factors are increasing and two are declining at the global level. At present, the world's global population is increasing at a rate of about 2 per cent per year. The longer-term historical growth rates since 1800 have been about 1 per cent per year. Most of the population projections expect at least another doubling during the next century (see UN, 1992; Vu, 1985). Productivity has been increasing in excess of global population growth since the beginning of industrialization, and thus has resulted in more economic activity and value added per capita. CO2 emissions per unit of energy and energy intensity per unit of value added have been decreasing since the 1860s in most countries.

http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee0h.htm

29.11.2006


Seite 2 von 9

The decarbonization of energy and decreases in the energy intensity of economic activities are a pervasive and almost universal development (Nakicenovic, 1993b). Since 1860, the ratio of average CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed worldwide has been decreasing, owing to the continuous replacement of fuels with high carbon content, such as coal, by those with lower or zero carbon content. Figure 13.2 shows the historical global decarbonization of energy, expressed in tons of carbon (tC) per kilowatt year (kWyr). The reduction in the carbon intensity of the world economy, historically about 1.3 per cent per year, has been overwhelmed by growth in economic output of roughly 3.0 per cent per year. The difference, 1.7 per cent, parallels the annual increase in CO2 emissions, implying a doubling before 2030 in the absence of appropriate countermeasures and policies. Analysis of energy decarbonization requires the energy system to be disaggregated into its three major constituents: primary energy requirements, energy conversion, and final energy consumption. The carbon intensity of primary energy is defined as the total carbon content of primary energy divided by total primary energy requirements (consumption) for a given country. As such it is identical to the ratio used to define the carbon intensity of primary energy in the world given in figure 13.2. The carbon intensity of final energy is defined as the carbon content of all final energy forms consumed divided by total final energy consumption. Various final energy forms that are delivered to the point of final consumption include solid fuels (such as biomass and coal), oil products, gas, chemical feed stocks, electricity, and heat. Electricity and heat do not contain any carbon. Thus it is evident on an a priori basis that the carbon intensity of final energy should generally be lower than the carbon intensity of primary energy. In addition, its rate of decrease should exceed that of primary energy decarbonization because of the increasing share of electricity and other fuels with lower carbon content, such as natural gas, in the final energy mix. The carbon intensity of energy conversion is defined as the difference between the two intensities. Fig. 13.2 The global decarbonization of primary energy, 1860-1980

Figures 13.3,13.4, and 13.5 show the carbon intensities of primary energy, final energy, and energy conversion for selected countries, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent (toe). In figure 13.3 the higher carbon intensities of China and India result from higher reliance on coal and traditional sources of energy, which are assumed also to result in net CO2 emissions owing to deforestation and, in general, unsustainable exploitation. The steep decline in carbon intensity during the 1980s in France is a direct result of its vigorous introduction of nuclear energy. Figure 13.4 shows the carbon intensities of final energy. The figure indicates a continuous and smooth transition toward lower-carbon and zero-carbon energy carriers, in particular toward increasing shares of high-quality, exergetic fuels such as natural gas and, above all, electricity. Fig. 13.3 The carbon intensity of primary energy in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991


29.11.2006


Seite 3 von 9

Fig. 13.4 The carbon intensity of final energy in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991

The carbon intensities of conversion shown in figure 13.5 present a different picture, with a variety of energy systems and development strategies, despite convergence in the final energy mix. In the developing countries, carbon intensity increases over time, whereas in the industrialized countries it decreases at various rates, most rapidly in France. Should China and India continue to rely heavily on coal, it may not be possible to reduce carbon intensity in these countries. This means that some time in the twenty-first century a trend reversal may be expected, in the carbon intensity of either final energy or primary energy or both. The only bridge between these opposing trends could be even higher shares of electricity. The other alternative is that the future energy system restructures towards natural gas, nuclear energy, biomass, and other zero-carbon options. This would bring the energy systems of these two developing countries in line with those of the more industrialized ones. Fig. 13.5 The carbon intensity of energy conversion in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991

Generally, the carbon intensities of primary energy and energy conversion are due to the energy system itself, whereas the carbon intensity of final energy is due to the actual energy required by the economy and individual consumers. Therefore, the former is a function of the specific energy situation in a given country whereas the latter is a function of the economic structure and consumer behaviour. The difference between the two provides deeper insight into the carbon emissions that result from energy and economy interactions and those that are determined by the nature of primary energy supply, conversion, and distribution. Some degree of decarbonization has also been accompanied by lower energy intensities. Energy intensity measures the primary energy needed to generate a unit of value added and is usually measured in terms of gross domestic or national products (GDP or GNP). Energy conversion has fundamentally changed and improved with the diffusion of internal combustion engines, electricity generation, steam and gas turbines, and chemical and thermal energy conversion. Improvements in energy efficiency have reduced the amount of energy needed to convert primary energy to final and useful energy. Figure 13.6 shows declining envelopes of energy intensity, expressed in kilograms of oil equivalent energy per US$ GDP in constant 1985 dollars (kgoe/$(1985) GDP), and decarbonization, expressed in kilograms of carbon per kilogram of oil equivalent energy (kg C/kgoe), in selected nations. It illustrates salient differences in the policies and structures of energy systems among countries. For example, Japan and France have achieved the highest degrees of decarbonization; in Japan this has been largely through energy efficiency improvements over recent decades, while in France it has been largely through substitution of fossil fuels by nuclear energy. In most developing countries, commercial energy is replacing traditional energy forms so that total energy intensity is diminishing while commercial energy intensity is increasing. Fig. 13.6 Global decarbonization and de-intensification of energy, 1870-1988


29.11.2006


Seite 4 von 9

Although decarbonization and energy de-intensification are responsible for relative reductions in energy emissions, they are not enough to offset the absolute emissions increases and projected emissions associated with the world's energy needs, especially those required for further economic development. Structural changes in energy systems toward carbon-free sources of primary energy are needed for further carbon intensity reductions. Analysis of primary energy substitution, shown in figure 13.1, suggests that natural gas could become the next dominant energy source and would enhance the reduction of the adverse impacts of energy use on the environment, especially CO2 emissions. Natural gas is a very potent greenhouse gas if released into the atmosphere but, after combustion occurs, the amount of CO2 is much smaller compared with other fossil energy sources. Consisting mostly of methane, natural gas has the highest hydrogen to carbon atomic ratio and the lowest CO2 emissions of all fossil fuels, emitting roughly half as much CO2 as coal for the same amount of energy. The historical transition from wood to coal to oil and to gas has resulted in the gradual decarbonization of energy or to an increasing hydrogen to carbon ratio of global energy consumption. Natural gas is also desirable regionally because of its minimal emissions of other air pollutants. Regional assessments suggest that gas resources may be more abundant than was widely believed only a decade ago. New discoveries have outpaced consumption. Additionally, gas hydrates and natural gas of ultra-deep origin indicate truly vast occurrences of methane throughout the Earth's crust. The methane economy offers a bridge to a non-fossil energy future that is consistent with both the dynamics of primary energy substitution and the steadily increasing carbon intensity of final energy. As non-fossil energy sources are introduced in the primary energy mix, new energy conversion systems would be required to provide other zero-carbon energy carriers in addition to growing shares of electricity. Thus, the methane economy would lead to a greater role for energy gases and later hydrogen in conjunction with electricity. Hydrogen and electricity could provide virtually pollution-free and environmentally benign energy carriers. As the methane contribution to global energy saturates and subsequently declines, carbon-free sources of energy would take over and eliminate the need for carbon handling and storage. This would then conclude the decarbonization process in the world. The issue of climate warming is a major planetary concern along with the need to provide sufficient energy for further social and economic development worldwide. Methane and later hydrogen offer the possibility for reconciling these objectives. The evolutionary development of the global energy system toward a larger contribution by natural gas is consistent with the dynamics of the past 130 years. The current phase in the development of the global energy system may be just midway through the hydrocarbon era. Decarbonization in the world can continue as methane becomes the major energy source. From this perspective, methane is the transitional hydrocarbon, and the great energy breakthrough will be the production of hydrogen without fossil fuels. In the meantime, the natural gas share in total primary energy should continue to grow at the expense of dirtier energy sources (coal and oil). This transition to the methane age and beyond to carbon-free energy systems represents a minimum-regret option because it would also reduce emissions from economic and energy interactions, especially CO2 emissions. Acknowledgements Some results given in the paper are based on joint research with Gilbert Ahamer and Arnulf Grübler, both from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Laxenburg, Austria. Bibliography Ausubel, J. H., A. Grübler, and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. "Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy." Climatic Change 12: 245-263 (reprinted at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, RR-88-7). Grübler, A. 1991. "Energy in the 21st century: From resource to environmental and lifestyle constraints." Entropie 164/165:29-33. Grübler, A. and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. "The dynamic evolution of methane technologies." In: T. H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko (eds.), The Methane Age. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, and Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. Marchetti, C. and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. Laxenburg, Austria: International


29.11.2006


Seite 5 von 9

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, RR-79-13. Nakicenovic, N. 1990. "Dynamics of change and long waves." In: T. Vasko, R. Ayres, and L. Fontvielle (eds.), Life Cycles and Long Waves. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Nakicenovic, N. 1993a. "Energy gases - The methane age and beyond." In: D. G. Howell, K. Wiese, M. Fanelli, L. Zink, and. F. Cole (eds.), The Future of Energy Gases. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office. Nakicenovic, N. 1993b. Decarbonization: Doing More with Less. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, WP-93-076. Nakicenovic, N., A. Grübler, and G. Ahamer. 1993. "Decarbonization of the world, representative countries and regions." Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. UN (United Nations). 1991. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations, Population Studies No. 120. UN (United Nations). 1992. Long-range World Population Projections. Two Centuries of Population Growth 1950-2150. New York: United Nations. Vu, M. T. 1985. World Population Projection 1985. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. Yamaji, K., R. Matsuhashi, Y. Nagata, and Y. Kaya. 1991. "An integrated system for CO2/energy/GNP analysis: Case studies on economic measures for CO2 reduction in Japan." Paper presented at the Workshop on CO2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the Next Century, 19-21 March, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Contents -

Previous - Next


29.11.2006

Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies... - Google Book Search

Seite 1 von 2

[email protected] | My Account | Sign out G Ahamer Search Books

Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainability

By YOICHI.

KAYA, Keiichi Yokobori

Summary By YOICHI. KAYA, Keiichi Yokobori Published 1997 United Nations University Press Environmental Studies 381 pages

This book deals with short-term and long-term issues associated with directions of economic development in developing as well as industrialized countries. It examines various aspects of the interrelationships among the environment, energy requirements, and economic development, a topic much discussed since the Rio Earth Summit.

ISBN 9280809113

Buy this book Amazon.com Barnes&Noble.com BookSense.com Froogle Borrow this book Find libraries

Preview this book

Contents

Selected pages

A plea

31

audemus, difficilia, schmidheiny

Policy measures for global environmental

43

desulphurization, emissions, stepby

Environment economy energy and sustainable

52

cascading, sustainable, recycling

Climate changes due to the increase

59

tokioka, thermohaline, manabe

Deforestation and desertification in developing

Title Page 71

Table of Contents

Index

more »

desertification, deforestation, tolba

Comments on part

91

drylands, barigozzi, deforestation more »

Related books Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainabilit... By Paul Ekins - 2000 - 374 pages Introduction | Perceptions of environmental scarcity | Wealth creation: distinguishingbetween production, welfare, growth and development | The concept of environmental... Limited preview - Table of Contents About this book

References from scholarly works Private-Economic Analysis of Drivers Promoting the Adoption of Best... PC Roebeling, DM Smith, J Biggs, AJ Webster, PJ Thorburn

W hat environmental problems have been created in China due to its... Erik Winker

Mega UN Conferences: Help or Hindrance? Morris Miller

Search in this book Search

World Without End: Economics, Environment and... By David W. Pearce, Jeremy J. Warford, Professor... - 1993 - 456 pages This work is comprehensive in its survey of environmental economics Limited preview - Table of Contents About this book

An Introduction to Sustainable

http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9280809113&id=pIi30xsIjXEC&dq=G+Ahamer&num=1... 05.12.2006

Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies... - Google Book Search

Seite 2 von 2

Development By Jennifer A. Elliott, ( - 1999 - 215 pages Containing a wealth of student-friendly features including boxed case studies drawn fromacross the world, discussion questions, guides for further reading and a glossary, this... Limited preview - Table of Contents About this book more »

Key terms fuelwood, carbon taxes, nordhaus, carbon emissions, biogas, energy intensity, decarbonization, rural energy, desertification, energy markets, tokioka, reference scenario, renewables, oecd europe, richels, soviet union, viet nam, island press, igor bashmakov, latin america Fuel-cell Vehicles Meet the Honda FCX, Honda's amazing fuel-cell vehicle. environmentology.honda.com

Sponsored Links

Recycle or Trash Can Looseleaf Binder that is 100% PP Recyclable, Reusable, and Long Life www.unikeep.com Look - God is Green Come see how Care of Creation Inc. promotes a green gospel... careofcreation.org About Google Book Search - Book Search Blog - Information for Publishers - Provide Feedback - Google Home ©2006 Google

http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9280809113&id=pIi30xsIjXEC&dq=G+Ahamer&num=1... 05.12.2006

Teoma Cached Page

Seite 1 von 9

Below is a cache or saved snapshot of http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee0h.htm as we found it on January 18, 2005 09:37:41 PST. The following terms have been highlighted: ahamer « Back to your results

Contents -

Teoma is not affiliated with the authors of this page or responsible for its content.

Previous - Next

13. Decarbonization as a long-term energy strategy Nebojsa Nakicenovic The possibility of less carbon-intensive and even carbon-free energy as major sources of energy during the next century is consistent with the long-term dynamic transformation and structural change of the energy system. Natural gas seems the likely transitional fuel that would enhance the reduction in other adverse impacts of energy use on the environment as well as substantial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Natural gas could be the bridge to carbon-free energy sources such as hydrogen (Nakicenovic, 1993a). Global primary energy use has evolved from reliance on traditional energy sources to being based on fossil fuels, first coal and steam then oil and natural gas, and more recently (but to a lesser extent) on nuclear and hydro-energy. Figure 13.1 shows the competitive struggle among the five main sources of primary energy as a dynamic substitution process. Fuelwood and traditional energy sources dominated primary energy until 1880. Coal, the major energy source between 1880 and 1960, was the basis for the massive expansion of railroads and the growth of steel, steamships, and many other sectors. Since 1960, oil has assumed a dominant role at the same time as the automotive, petrochemical, and other industries have matured. The current reliance on coal in many developing countries illustrates the gap between the structure of primary energy supply and actual final energy needs. Fig. 13.1 Global primary energy substitution, 1860-1980, and projections to 2050 (expressed in fractional market shares, f. Note: Smooth lines represent model calculations and jagged lines are historial data. "Solfus" is a term employed to describe a major new energy technology, for example solar or fusion)

During the past two centuries, global consumption of primary energy has increased about 2 per cent per year, doubling on average about every 35 years. As a result, emissions and other environmental effects of energy conversion and end-use have also increased.

mhtml:file://C:\Dokumente%20und%20Einstellungen\Gilbert%20Ahamer\Eigene%20Dateien\Hab\Portfolio_CS\_%... 29.11.2006

Teoma Cached Page

Seite 2 von 9

Current annual emissions are about 6 gigatons (billion tons) of carbon or more than 20 gigatons of CO2. Most of the anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 is due to fossil energy use and deforestation. Fossil energy consumption contributed more than two-thirds of all human sources of CO2. The largest single source of energy-related carbon emissions is coal (about 43 per cent), followed by oil (around 39 per cent) and gas (less than 18 per cent). In general, the instrumental determinants of future energy-related CO2 emissions can be described by the Kaya identity. The Kaya identity establishes a relationship between population growth, per capita value added, energy per unit of value added, and CO2 emissions per unit of energy on one side of the equation, and total carbon dioxide emissions on the other (Yamaji et al., 1991). CO2 = (CO2/E) X (E/GDP) x (GDP/P) x P. where E represents energy consumption, GDP the gross domestic product or value added, and P population. Changes in CO2 emissions can be described by changes in these four factors. Two of these factors are increasing and two are declining at the global level. At present, the world's global population is increasing at a rate of about 2 per cent per year. The longer-term historical growth rates since 1800 have been about 1 per cent per year. Most of the population projections expect at least another doubling during the next century (see UN, 1992; Vu, 1985). Productivity has been increasing in excess of global population growth since the beginning of industrialization, and thus has resulted in more economic activity and value added per capita. CO2 emissions per unit of energy and energy intensity per unit of value added have been decreasing since the 1860s in most countries. The decarbonization of energy and decreases in the energy intensity of economic activities are a pervasive and almost universal development (Nakicenovic, 1993b). Since 1860, the ratio of average CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed worldwide has been decreasing, owing to the continuous replacement of fuels with high carbon content, such as coal, by those with lower or zero carbon content. Figure 13.2 shows the historical global decarbonization of energy, expressed in tons of carbon (tC) per kilowatt year (kWyr). The reduction in the carbon intensity of the world economy, historically about 1.3 per cent per year, has been overwhelmed by growth in economic output of roughly 3.0 per cent per year. The difference, 1.7 per cent, parallels the annual increase in CO2 emissions, implying a doubling before 2030 in the absence of appropriate countermeasures and policies. Analysis of energy decarbonization requires the energy system to be disaggregated into its three major constituents: primary energy requirements, energy conversion, and final energy consumption. The carbon intensity of primary energy is defined as the total carbon content of primary energy divided by total primary energy requirements (consumption) for a given country. As such it is identical to the ratio used to define the carbon intensity of primary energy in the world given in figure 13.2. The carbon intensity of final energy is defined as the carbon content of all final energy forms consumed divided by total final energy consumption. Various final energy forms that are delivered to the point of final consumption include solid fuels (such as biomass and coal), oil products, gas, chemical feed stocks, electricity, and heat. Electricity and heat do not contain any carbon. Thus it is evident on an a priori basis that the carbon intensity of final energy should generally be lower than the carbon intensity of primary energy. In addition, its rate of decrease should exceed that of primary energy decarbonization because of the increasing share of electricity and other fuels with lower carbon content, such as natural gas, in the final energy mix. The carbon intensity of energy conversion is defined as the difference between the two intensities. Fig. 13.2 The global decarbonization of primary energy, 1860-1980


Teoma Cached Page

Seite 3 von 9

Figures 13.3,13.4, and 13.5 show the carbon intensities of primary energy, final energy, and energy conversion for selected countries, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent (toe). In figure 13.3 the higher carbon intensities of China and India result from higher reliance on coal and traditional sources of energy, which are assumed also to result in net CO2 emissions owing to deforestation and, in general, unsustainable exploitation. The steep decline in carbon intensity during the 1980s in France is a direct result of its vigorous introduction of nuclear energy. Figure 13.4 shows the carbon intensities of final energy. The figure indicates a continuous and smooth transition toward lowercarbon and zero-carbon energy carriers, in particular toward increasing shares of high-quality, exergetic fuels such as natural gas and, above all, electricity. Fig. 13.3 The carbon intensity of primary energy in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991

Fig. 13.4 The carbon intensity of final energy in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991


Teoma Cached Page

Seite 4 von 9

The carbon intensities of conversion shown in figure 13.5 present a different picture, with a variety of energy systems and development strategies, despite convergence in the final energy mix. In the developing countries, carbon intensity increases over time, whereas in the industrialized countries it decreases at various rates, most rapidly in France. Should China and India continue to rely heavily on coal, it may not be possible to reduce carbon intensity in these countries. This means that some time in the twenty-first century a trend reversal may be expected, in the carbon intensity of either final energy or primary energy or both. The only bridge between these opposing trends could be even higher shares of electricity. The other alternative is that the future energy system restructures towards natural gas, nuclear energy, biomass, and other zero-carbon options. This would bring the energy systems of these two developing countries in line with those of the more industrialized ones. Fig. 13.5 The carbon intensity of energy conversion in China, France, India, Japan, and the United States, 1960-1991

Generally, the carbon intensities of primary energy and energy conversion are due to the energy system itself, whereas the carbon intensity of final energy is due to the actual energy required by the economy and individual consumers. Therefore, the former is a function of the specific energy situation in a given country whereas the latter is a function of the economic structure and consumer behaviour. The difference between the two provides deeper insight into the carbon emissions that result from energy and economy interactions and those that are determined by the nature of primary energy supply, conversion, and distribution. Some degree of decarbonization has also been accompanied by lower energy intensities. Energy intensity measures the primary energy needed to generate a unit of value added and is usually measured in terms of gross domestic or national products (GDP or


Teoma Cached Page

Seite 5 von 9

GNP). Energy conversion has fundamentally changed and improved with the diffusion of internal combustion engines, electricity generation, steam and gas turbines, and chemical and thermal energy conversion. Improvements in energy efficiency have reduced the amount of energy needed to convert primary energy to final and useful energy. Figure 13.6 shows declining envelopes of energy intensity, expressed in kilograms of oil equivalent energy per US$ GDP in constant 1985 dollars (kgoe/$(1985)GDP), and decarbonization, expressed in kilograms of carbon per kilogram of oil equivalent energy (kg C/kgoe), in selected nations. It illustrates salient differences in the policies and structures of energy systems among countries. For example, Japan and France have achieved the highest degrees of decarbonization; in Japan this has been largely through energy efficiency improvements over recent decades, while in France it has been largely through substitution of fossil fuels by nuclear energy. In most developing countries, commercial energy is replacing traditional energy forms so that total energy intensity is diminishing while commercial energy intensity is increasing. Fig. 13.6 Global decarbonization and de-intensification of energy, 1870-1988

Although decarbonization and energy de-intensification are responsible for relative reductions in energy emissions, they are not enough to offset the absolute emissions increases and projected emissions associated with the world's energy needs, especially those required for further economic development. Structural changes in energy systems toward carbon-free sources of primary energy are needed for further carbon intensity reductions. Analysis of primary energy substitution, shown in figure 13.1, suggests that natural gas could become the next dominant energy source and would enhance the reduction of the adverse impacts of energy use on the environment, especially CO2 emissions. Natural gas is a very potent greenhouse gas if released into the atmosphere but, after combustion occurs, the amount of CO2 is much smaller compared with other fossil energy sources. Consisting mostly of methane, natural gas has the highest hydrogen to carbon atomic ratio and the lowest CO2 emissions of all fossil fuels, emitting roughly half as much CO2 as coal for the same amount of energy. The historical transition from wood to coal to oil and to gas has resulted in the gradual decarbonization of energy or to an increasing hydrogen to carbon ratio of global energy consumption. Natural gas is also desirable regionally because of its minimal emissions of other air pollutants. Regional assessments suggest that gas resources may be more abundant than was widely believed only a decade ago. New discoveries have outpaced consumption. Additionally, gas hydrates and natural gas of ultra-deep origin indicate truly vast occurrences of methane throughout the Earth's crust. The methane economy offers a bridge to a non-fossil energy future that is consistent with both the dynamics of primary energy substitution and the steadily increasing carbon intensity of final energy. As non-fossil energy sources are introduced in the primary energy mix, new energy conversion systems would be required to provide other zero-carbon energy carriers in addition to growing shares of electricity. Thus, the methane economy would lead to a greater role for energy gases and later hydrogen in conjunction with electricity. Hydrogen and electricity could provide virtually pollution-free and environmentally benign energy carriers. As the methane contribution to global energy saturates and subsequently declines, carbon-free sources of energy would take over and


Teoma Cached Page

Seite 6 von 9

eliminate the need for carbon handling and storage. This would then conclude the decarbonization process in the world. The issue of climate warming is a major planetary concern along with the need to provide sufficient energy for further social and economic development worldwide. Methane and later hydrogen offer the possibility for reconciling these objectives. The evolutionary development of the global energy system toward a larger contribution by natural gas is consistent with the dynamics of the past 130 years. The current phase in the development of the global energy system may be just midway through the hydrocarbon era. Decarbonization in the world can continue as methane becomes the major energy source. From this perspective, methane is the transitional hydrocarbon, and the great energy breakthrough will be the production of hydrogen without fossil fuels. In the meantime, the natural gas share in total primary energy should continue to grow at the expense of dirtier energy sources (coal and oil). This transition to the methane age and beyond to carbon-free energy systems represents a minimum-regret option because it would also reduce emissions from economic and energy interactions, especially CO2 emissions. Acknowledgements Some results given in the paper are based on joint research with Gilbert Ahamer and Arnulf Gr bler, both from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Laxenburg, Austria. Bibliography Ausubel, J. H., A. Gr bler, and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. "Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy." Climatic Change 12: 245-263 (reprinted at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, RR-88-7). Gr bler, A. 1991. "Energy in the 21st century: From resource to environmental and lifestyle constraints." Entropie 164/165:29-33. Gr bler, A. and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. "The dynamic evolution of methane technologies." In: T. H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko (eds.), The Methane Age. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, and Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. Marchetti, C. and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, RR-79-13. Nakicenovic, N. 1990. "Dynamics of change and long waves." In: T. Vasko, R. Ayres, and L. Fontvielle (eds.), Life Cycles and Long Waves. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Nakicenovic, N. 1993a. "Energy gases - The methane age and beyond." In: D. G. Howell, K. Wiese, M. Fanelli, L. Zink, and. F. Cole (eds.), The Future of Energy Gases. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office. Nakicenovic, N. 1993b. Decarbonization: Doing More with Less. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, WP-93-076. Nakicenovic, N., A. Gr bler, and G. Ahamer. 1993. "Decarbonization of the world, representative countries and regions." Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. UN (United Nations). 1991. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations, Population Studies No. 120. UN (United Nations). 1992. Long-range World Population Projections. Two Centuries of Population Growth 1950-2150. New York: United Nations. Vu, M. T. 1985. World Population Projection 1985. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. Yamaji, K., R. Matsuhashi, Y. Nagata, and Y. Kaya. 1991. "An integrated system for CO2/energy/GNP analysis: Case studies on economic measures for CO2 reduction in Japan." Paper presented at the Workshop on CO2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the Next Century, 19-21 March, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Contents -

Previous - Next


see pages 1, 17

NORTH- HOLLAND

Decarbonization: Doing More with Less NEBOJSA

NAKICENOVIC

ABSTRACT This article demonstrates that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and that carbon emissions have also decreased per unit energy. Energy is one of the most important factor inputs so that decreases in specific energy requirements contribute toward decreasing material intensity. Carbon dioxide emissions represent one of the largest single mass flows associated with human activities. Therefore, decarbonization contributes in a large way toward dematerializaton. At the global level decarbonization occurs at about 0.307o per year, and reduction of energy intensity of value added stands at 1°70 per year, resulting in overall carbon intensity of value added reduction of about 1.3070 per year. The pervasiveness of decarbonization in the world, is illustrated for five representative countries. The case histories show that developing countries are undergoing basically the same process of decarbonization of final energy use as do most developed ones. However, carbon intensity of primary energy is increasing in some developing countries and should a reversal not occur in the forthcoming decades, it is likely the decarbonization in the industrialized countries could be offset by this tendency. Thus, the possibility cannot be entirely excluded that carbon dioxide emissions would increase faster than economic growth. These opposing tendencies could be bridged in the future if the energy system restructures toward larger reliance on natural gas, biomass, nuclear energy, and other zero-carbon options. For example, the methane economy could lead to a greater role for energy gases (and later hydrogen) in conjunction with electricity. Such an energy system would represent a gigantic step toward decarbonization and it would also be consistent with the emergence of new technologies that hold the promise of higher flexibility, productivity, and environmental compatibility.

Introduction D o i n g m o r e with less is a g r e a t a c h i e v e m e n t o f a d v a n c e d societies. L a b o r , capital, e n e r g y , o t h e r f a c t o r i n p u t s , a n d m a t e r i a l r e q u i r e m e n t s h a v e d e c r e a s e d p e r unit o u t p u t a n d value a d d e d since t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n . T h e s e p r o d u c t i v i t y increases are d u e to n u m e r o u s t e c h n o l o g i c a l a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n n o v a t i o n s a n d t o a n e n o r m o u s a c c u m u l a t i o n o f k n o w l e d g e . T h e s e a c h i e v e m e n t s are o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o in t h e l i t e r a t u r e as t h e autonomous rates of technological change. Since t h e i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f m a t e r i a l a n d o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d services has o u t p a c e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h in t h e w o r l d , r e s u l t i n g in i n c r e a s i n g w e a l t h a n d DR NEBOJSA NAKIt~ENOVI(~ is Project Leader of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Some results given in this article are based on the joint research of the author with the assistance of Gilbert Ahamer and Arnulf Grtibler, both from IIASA. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis or of its national member organizations. Address reprint requests to Dr. Neboj~a Naki6enovi6, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 51, 1-17 (1996) © 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. 655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010

0040-1625/96/$15.00 SSDI 0040-1625(95)00167-9

2

N. NAKICENOVI~ 3000

2700

2400

'. '~'9.... JAPAN % "%."• "% %

2100

"%

0 I

;

%

"-.

°,

....

FRANCE ~I'GERMANY 1800

USA Data: Maddison, 1991

1500 I 1850

1 1900

I 1950

,

""'".~.~..~. UK

"%T'

I 2000

Fig. 1. Annual working hours in five industrialized countries from 1960 to 1990, expressed in total working hours per year (hours spent on sick leave, strikes, and holidays are subtracted from the formal working time). Source: Maddison [5].

improved standards of living. The growth in output and economic development in general resulted in positive returns from increasing scales of human activities, sometimes referred to as learning by doing. F o r example, learning curve analyses provide ample empirical evidence for decreasing costs per unit output p r o p o r t i o n a l to every doubling of the accumulative output. There is also rich empirical evidence that materials consumption and labor requirements per unit output have decreased during the process o f industrialization. In this article we demonstrate that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and furthermore that carbon dioxide emissions have also decreased per unit energy. At the same time, absolute world consumption levels o f energy and other resources have increased, particularly vigorously in the more industrialized countries. This should not be confused, however, with the fact that energy and most of the other factor inputs have decreased per unit output. D e c r e a s e s in L a b o r a n d M a t e r i a l R e q u i r e m e n t s

First, we show the tendency t o w a r d decreases in specific labor and material requirements before demonstrating that the reduction of energy and carbon emissions per unit activity is a secular process taking place throughout the world. Figure 1 shows the annual number o f working hours in a number of industrialized countries: That number has halved over the last 130 years. Japan is something o f an exception, where the decrease was not so rapid, perhaps also partly explaining the present higher productivity of this country. If we take into account that individual income and consumption have increased dramatically over the same period, then it becomes evident that the labor requirements per unit income and output have decreased even faster than the number of hours worked. Furthermore, life expectancy has also increased during this period, so that the effective labor requirements for lifelong consumption have decreased from more than threequarters of the lifetime to less than one-quarter.

DECARBONIZATION: DOING MORE WITH LESS

3

Figure 2 shows similarly dramatic decreases in some material requirements per unit output in the United States that are representative for a number o f industrialized countries. However, it is not clear that dematerialization is a universal process. As the requirements for some materials, such as steel, decreases, newer and more advanced materials replace them. F o r example, there is a growing need for petrochemicals and advanced material such as carbon fiber or silicon. Ironically, the so-called information revolution has resulted in the growth o f specific paper requirements. Such counterexamples demonstrate that dematerialization is occurring in some sectors but not others and is thus not a pervasive phenomenon. In contrast, decreases in energy intensity of economic activities and decarbonization are pervasive and an almost universal development. The analysis of these two pervasive tendencies can perhaps shed more light indirectly on the question o f whether dematerialization is occurring as well. Energy is one of the most important factor inputs and is embedded in most o f materials, products, and services, so that decreases in specific energy requirements can also contribute t o w a r d decreasing material intensity. The carbon content o f energy and, therefore, the subsequent carbon dioxide emissions, represents one o f the largest single mass flows that can be associated with human activities. Current annual emissions are about 6 Gigatons (billion tons) o f carbon or more than 20 Gigatons of carbon dioxide. In comparison, global steel production is on the order of 700 Megatons (million tons). Therefore, decarbonization contributes in a large w a y toward dematerialization.

Trends in Decarbonization Decarbonization can be expressed as a product o f two factors: (1) specific carbon emissions per unit energy; and (2) energy requirements per unit value added, often called energy intensity. Both of these factors are decreasing in the world but are being outpaced by the rate of economic growth, resulting in an overall global increase in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. In general, the instrumental determinants of future energy-related carbon dioxide emissions could be represented as multiplicative factors in the hypothetical equation that determines global emission levels. The Kaya identity establishes a relationship between population growth, per capita value added, energy per value added, and carbon emissions per energy on one side o f the equation and total carbon dioxide emissions on the other [ 1 5 ] . 1 TWO o f these factors are increasing and two are declining at the global level. At present the world's global population is increasing at a rate o f a b o u t 207o per year. The longer-term historical growth rates since 1800 have been about 1070 per year. Most o f the population projections expect at least another doubling during the next century [12, 13]. Productivity has been increasing in excess of global population growth since the beginning o f industrialization and thus has resulted in more economic activity and value a d d e d per capita. Energy intensity per unit value a d d e d has been decreasing at a rate o f a b o u t 107o per year since the 1860s and at about 207o per year in most countries since the 1970s. C a r b o n dioxide emissions per unit o f energy have also been decreasing but at a much lower rate o f about 0.3°7o per year. Figure 3 illustrates the extent o f decarbonization in terms o f the ratio o f average carbon dioxide enfissions per unit o f primary energy consumed globally since 1860. The CO: = (CO2/E) x (E/GDP) x (GDP/P) x P, where E represents energy consumption, GDP the gross domestic product or value added, and P population. Changes in carbon dioxide emissionscan be described by changes in these four factors.

4

N. NAKI~ENOVI(~

U 0 Z

O o

0

.=.

"0 ~t

o

E

le

8

~

~

R

(SEIVT1OQ 1~88| M ) d ' N ' O dO ~ 0 " 1 S ~

R $1~ItX~IDi

g

DECARBONIZATION:DOING MORE WITH LESS 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

I

t

I -I

1850

J 1900

I

] ~

[

I 1950

I

~--~

I 2000

Fig. 3. Global decarbonization of energy from 1860 to 1980, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent (tC/toe).

ratio decreases because of the continuous replacement of fuels with high carbon contents, such as coal, by those with low carbon contents and most recently also nuclear energy. Figure 4 shows the historical decrease in energy intensity per unit value added in a number of countries. Energy development paths in different countries have varied enormously and consistently over long periods, but the overall tendency is toward lower energy intensities. For example, France and Japan have always used energy more efficiently than the United States, the United Kingdom, or Germany. This should be contrasted with the opposite development in some of the rapidly industrializing countries, where commercial energy intensity is still increasing, such as in Nigeria. Commercial energy is replacing traditional energy forms, so that total energy intensity is diminishing while commercial energy intensity is increasing. The present energy intensity of Thailand resembles the situation in the United States in the late 1940s. The energy intensity of India and its present improvement rates are similar to those of the United States about a century ago. Figure 5 shows the degrees of decarbonization and energy deintensification achieved in a number of countries since the 1870s. It illustrates salient differences in the policies and structures of energy systems among countries. For example, Japan and France have achieved the largest degrees of decarbonization; in Japan this has been achieved largely through energy efficiency improvements over recent decades and in France largely through vigorous substitution of fossil fuels by nuclear energy. Most countries have achieved decarbonization through the replacement of coal first by oil, and later by natural gas. At the global levelthe long-term reduction in carbon intensity per unit value added has been about 1.3070 per year since the mid-1800s. Decarbonization of energy occurs at about 0.3°/o per year, and the reduction of energy intensity of value added stands at about 1070per year, resulting in overall carbon intensity of value added reduction of about 1.3070 per year. This falls short by about 1.7070 of what is required to offset the effects of global economic growth, with rates of about 3070 per year. This means that the global carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing at about 1.7070 per year, implying a doui

N. NAKI(~ENOVI(~ China 1971-91 mexr .

223-118 l

2.2

A FSU mexr 2.0 1.8 6"

co o3

1.6

SA

~

E,

O3 1.4 O

Xt~'~,,,-SAS mexr

1.2

.__>, 1.0

~,,.

FSU ppp

E 0.8

Ge r m a n y ' ~ / - - ~

- N-' ~ ' ~ ~

~ r~x --.,.~_

- P A S m exr

LIJ 0.6 0.4

~

JaP a n ~ ' ~ ' ~ w

SAsS PP~ France

0.2 0

I

I

I

1860

1880

1900

I

I

1920 1940 Year

I

I

I

1960

1980

2000

Fig. 4. Primary energy intensity, including biomass, of value added from 1855 to 1990, expressed in kilogram of oil equivalent (kgoe) per constant GDP in 1980 U.S. dollars (primary electricity is accounted for by equivalence method).

bling before the 2030s. This in in fact quite close to emission levels projected in some o f the global scenarios.

Case Histories We have selected five representative countries in order to analyze the decarbonization processes in greater detail: China, France, Japan, India, and the United States. Based on the joint research of the author, A r n u l f Griibler, and Gilbert A h a m e r [9], decarbonization for various parts of the energy systems in these countries will be shown. These countries are representative because they demonstrate the diversity of different development paths and life-styles. Some other reasons for choosing these five countries have already been indirectly given. For example, the United States has one o f the highest energy intensities of the industrialized countries and also the highest per capita energy consumption in the world. France and Japan, on the other hand, have among the lowest energy intensities in the world but for different reasons. Finally, China and India represent two rapidly developing countries where the replacement of traditional energy by fossil energy is still not completed, resulting in very high energy and carbon intensities. Together, these countries account for 43.5o70 o f global primary energy consumption and 41.4°70 for CO2 energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. We focus on the analysis o f decarbonization in order to determine more precisely the various causes and determinants for the decreasing carbon intensity o f energy. To do this, we disaggregate the energy system into its three m a j o r constituents: primary


7

; CHINA ; USA m 1820 - 2.47/1.27 I

' 1988 - 2.77/0.93 ,!

I

2.0

/ USA

'

~1

UK 0 INDIA ¥

1.5 A

il

....o "f"

o

ca

FRANCE 0.0

!

:~j

.."" .r'"." • .KOREA 4"- ..... - -" . . . . . . . /

0.5

@'1850

APAN

p•

•q

I

I

0.4

0.5

0.6

I

I

I

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Decarbonization of energy (kg C/kgoe)

I

I

I

I

I

1.3

1.4

Fig. 5. Global decarbonization and deintensification of energy from 1870 to 1988 expressed in kilograms of carbon per kilogras of oil equivalent energy (kgC/kgoe) and in kilograms oil equivalent energy per $1000 per GDP in constant 1985 U.S. dollars. Source: Griibler [3].

energy requirements, energy conversion, and final energy consumption. As the structure of the energy system changes, so does the carbon intensity of these three constituent parts. Final energy is directly consumed and therefore represents the actual energy requirements of the economy and individual consumers. The rest of the energy system (primary energy and its conversion) are not really transparent to the consumers. Therefore, determining decarbonization as a ratio of total carbon emissions per unit primary energy removes the analysis from the actual point of consumption and the interaction between the energy system and the economy. The actual final energy forms demanded and consumed represent a clearer demonstration of carbon intensity at the point of consumption. For example, it is pretty much irrelevant to the consumer how electricity is produced. Since it is carbon free it does not lead to any carbon emissions at the point of consumption. Carbon is emitted in converting primary energy forms into final electricity. To a lesser degree this is also the case with other forms of final energy, such as oil products. The specific carbon emissions per liter of diesel or gasoline are basically the same throughout the world; however, the carbon emissions that result in converting different grades of crude oil into these two products vary substantially. Coal, on the other hand, is rarely consumed in its primary form and is mostly converted into electricity. In order to decouple the decarbonization rates that occur in the energy system from those that occur at the point of final energy consumption, we have made the following assumptions: (I) Carbon intensity of primary energy is defined as the ratio of total carbon content of primary energy divided by total primary energy requirements (consumption) for a given country.

8

N. NAKICENOVIC !.1

0.9

o

..l--.

0 ~

0.8

--,.--4,..,,..4..4_..,/

0.7

~

'=

--o-~-.o-o- ~ _ o . . = ~

0.6 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 6. Carbon intensities of primary (solid squares), final (open squares), and conversion (solid line) energy from 1960 to 1991 for the United States, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent energy (tC/toe).

As such, this definition is identical to the one used to define the carbon intensity of primary energy in the world given in Figure 3. (2) Carbon intensity of final energy is defined as the carbon content of all final energy forms consumed divided by total final energy consumption. Various final energy forms that are delivered to the point of final consumption include solid fuels, such as biomass, coal, oil products, gas, chemical feed stocks, electricity, and heat. Electricity and heat do not contain any carbon. Thus it is evident on an a priori basis that the carbon intensity of final energy should generally be lower than the carbon intensity of primary energy. In addition, its rate of decrease should be slightly higher than that o f primary energy decarbonization because of the increasing share o f electricity and other fuels with lower carbon content, such as natural gas, in the final energy mix. (3) C a r b o n intensity of energy conversion is defined as the difference between the preceding two types of intensities. Generally, these categories represent the carbon emissions resulting from the energy system itself, whereas the carbon intensity of final energy represents the carbon emissions due to the actual energy required by the economy and individual consumers. Therefore, the former is a function o f the specific energy situation in a given country and the latter is a function o f economic structure and consumer behavior. The difference between the two provides deeper insight into the carbon emissions that result from energy and economic interactions and those that are determined by the nature o f primary energy supply, conversion, and distribution. Figures 6 to 8 give the three carbon intensities for the five countries, respectively, from 1960 to 1991. Figures 9 and 10 focus on 1971 to 1991. The relationship among the three ratios for the United States and Japan in Figures 6 and 7 portrays the behavior one would anticipate on an a priori basis: Final carbon intensity is lower than the primary one, and conversion intensity is the highest. Reduction o f final carbon intensity is slightly higher in Japan, with a b o u t 0.8% per year c o m p a r e d to about 0.5O/o in the United States. The difference in the conversion carbon intensities are much more dramatic. In both cases these ratios change more erratically compared to the relatively smooth improvements

DECARBONIZATION: DOING MORE WITH LESS 1.1

~ ' 0.9 C9 0.8

0.7

0.6 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 7. Carbon intensities of primary (solid squares), final (open squares), and conversion (solid line) energy from 1960 to 1991 for Japan, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent energy (tC/toe).

in primary and final intensities. In Japan especially, the improvement rates since 1965 have been vigorous, outpacing the reduction rates o f final intensity. As can be seen from Figure 7, the reduction o f carbon intensity in Japan is due to high energy efficiency improvements and, to a lesser degree, to the replacement of carbon-intensive energy forms. Efficiency improvements in the energy system imply that less primary energy is consumed per unit final energy and, therefore, lower conversion losses result in lower carbon emissions. Figure 8 illustrates the opposite case for France. Here, the rapid introduction o f nuclear energy since the mid-1970s has led to higher rates of decarbonization o f primary energy and conversion than that of final energy. This illustrates a fundamentally different strategy to achieve low carbon emissions. Basically it is decoupled from the consumer and is completely internal to the energy system. The French nuclear development path really meant that the increasing share o f electricity is produced without carbon emissions, therefore lowering the overall carbon intensity of conversion. On the other hand, the relatively smooth improvement in final carbon intensity is very similar to that observed in Japan and the United States. Figures 9 and 10 show quite different situations in China and India. First, it is important to note that the changes in the three ratios are very similar in these two rapidly developing economies, although one has a planned economy and the other a market one. They also have very many social and cultural differences. In both countries carbon intensity in primary energy is basically stationary and shows only marginal signs of improvement. The carbon intensity o f final energy, on the other hand, is improving at rates comparable to those observed in industrialized countries. In China the reduction o f final energy carbon intensity is close to 0.5% per year, and in India it stands at the impressive rate 1.1% per year. In the latter case the rapid decarbonization o f final energy is due to the replacement o f traditional fuels by commercial energy forms. For example, the unsustainable use of biomass is more carbon intensive than kerosene and bottled gas. The difference in carbon intensity o f lighting between electricity (especially if efficient light bulbs are used) c o m p a r e d to traditional practices is even m o r e pronounced. In any

10

N. NAKI(~ENOVI~ 1.1 I 0.9 0.8 G) 0.7 0 0.6

0

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 8. Carbon intensities of primary (solid squares), final (open squares), and conversion (solidline) energy from 1960 to 1991 for France, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent energy (tC/toe).

case the developing economies are undergoing basically the same process o f decarbonizing final energy use as do the most developed ones. This indicates congruence in consumer behavior as expressed in the structure o f final energy used at different income and development levels. Decarbonization is, therefore, a pervasive phenomenon. In the industrialized countries, decarbonization of final energy consumption has been accompanied by appropriate structural changes in the energy system. This led to improvements in decarbonization in the energy system itself as demonstrated in lower carbon intensity of conversion. Subsequently, the decarbonization of primary energy intensity could also be achieved. In contrast, China and India have not undergone this

1.3

/

1.2

0

i

0

0.9

f

f

1.1 -

T

•

,-.=

0.8 0.7 0.6 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 9. Carbon intensities of primary (solid squares), final (open squares), and conversion (solid line) energy from 1971 to 1991 for China, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent energy (tC/toe).

DECARBONIZATION:DOING MORE WITH LESS

11

1.2 m

I

:==8

0.8 0 --.. 0.6 0

0.4 0.2 0 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 10. Carbon intensities of primary (solid squares), final (open squares), and conversion (solid line) energy f r o m 1971 to 1991 for India, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent energy (tC/toe).

transition. Their energy systems depend heavily on coal, which is a very carbon-intensive source of energy. In industrialized countries, coal has been largely replaced by less carbonintensive sources, especially in electricity production. As a consequence, the carbon intensity of conversion is increasing rapidly in both China and India. Should a transition to lower carbon intensity not occur in the forthcoming decades, it is quite likely that the relative reductions in specific carbon emissions in the industrialized countries will be offset by this trend. This will naturally hamper efforts to halt the increase in global carbon emissions. Figures 11, 12, and 13 compare the three ratios for the five countries. The congruence in the gradual reduction of final energy carbon intensity is illustrated in Figure 11. The development is convergent in the three industrialized countries and is accompanied by more rapid changes in the developing countries, especially in India, which has much higher absolute intensity levels. This means that the gap between the developed and developing countries is gradually narrowing. Final energy consumption is proceeding along a similar development path in all five countries. The share of electricity in final energy is increasing throughout the world. The average mix of other fuels consumed has a decreasing carbon content, that is, increasing shares of natural gas and of oil products with a higher hydrogen content. In other words, the hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of average fuel consumed is increasing globally. These two factors, namely, the increasing hydrogen content of fuels and the increasing share of electricity result in the steady improvement in the final energy carbon intensity shown in Figure 11. The carbon intensities of conversion give a completely different picture in Figure 12. The diversity in the development and structural changes of the energy systems in these five countries is apparent. In the developing countries carbon intensity is increasing, whereas in the industrialized countries it is decreasing at various rates, most rapidly in France due to the vigorous introduction of nuclear energy. This heterogeneity indicates not only the richness in different types of energy systems in the world but also different future development strategies. Should China and India continue to rely heavily on coal

12

N. NAKICENOVIC !.1 I 0.9 (I) 0.8

"4-"

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 11. Carbon intensity of final energy for China (open diamonds), France (open squares), India (solid triangles), Japan (solid diamonds), and the United States (solidsquares) from 1960 to 1991, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent final energy (tC/toe).

as t h e p r i m a r y e n e r g y s o u r c e o f p r e f e r e n c e , t h e n it m i g h t n o t b e possible to c o n t i n u e to i m p r o v e t h e c a r b o n i n t e n s i t y o f final e n e r g y in these c o u n t r i e s . T h i s m e a n s t h a t s o m e t i m e in t h e next c e n t u r y a t r e n d reversal c o u l d b e e x p e c t e d , e i t h e r in t h e c a r b o n i n t e n s i t y o f final e n e r g y or p r i m a r y e n e r g y or b o t h . T h e o n l y b r i d g e b e t w e e n t h e s e o p p o s i n g t r e n d s c o u l d b e e v e n h i g h e r s h a r e s o f electricity. T h e o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e f o r t h e f u t u r e is t h a t

1.4

1.2

O) 0.8

\

0.6

0.4

~

...o

1985

1990

0.2 0 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1995

Fig. 12. Carbon intensity of energy conversion for China (open diamonds), France (open squares), India (solid triangles), Japan (solid diamonds), and the United States (solid squares) from 1960 to 1991, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent converted energy (tC/toe).


13

1.1 I 0.9

•__0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Fig. 13. Carbon intensity of primary energy for China (open diamonds), France (open squares), India (solid triangles), Japan (solid diamonds), and the United States (solid squares) from 1960 to 1991, expressed in tons of carbon per ton of oil equivalent primary energy (tC/toe).

the energy system restructures toward natural gas, nuclear energy, biomass, and other zero-carbon options. This would bring the energy system of these two developing countries in line with those o f the more industrialized ones. A t the same time such structural changes would allow for continued improvements in the carbon intensity o f final energy consistent with the reduction o f specific requirements of other factor inputs and materials throughout the world economy. Figure 13 shows that, for the time being, the carbon intensity of primary energy is still developing in the same direction in all of these countries. However, as mentioned, without the p r o p o s e d structural changes in the energy systems toward carbon-free and hydrogen-rich sources of primary energy, trend reversals cannot be excluded in the future. This figure also illustrates the large impacts in achieving decarbonization by introducing zero-carbon sources o f energy as illustrated by the growing share of nuclear power in France. Toward

Further Decarbonization

There is a possible way to reconcile the increasing needs for electricity and hydrogenrich forms o f final energy with the relatively slow and often opposing changes in the structure of energy systems and primary energy supply. This can be best illustrated by the historical replacement o f coal by oil and later by natural gas at the global level. P r i m a r y energy substitution [1, 2, 4, 7, 8] suggests the likelihood that natural gas and later carbon-free energy forms will become m a j o r sources o f energy globally during the next century. Figure 14 shows the competitive struggle between the five main sources of primary energy as a dynamic and quite regular process that can be described by relatively simple rules. The substitution process clearly indicates the dominance o f coal as the m a j o r energy source between the 1880s and the 1960s after a long period during which fuelwood (and other traditional energy sources) were in the lead. The massive expansion o f railroads,

14

N. NAKI(~ENOVIt~

f/(l-f)

10

f r a c t i o n (f)

2

O.E~

I0

0.90 wood

~

"~~'~f

I0 0

_

coal

~

.....

,--Y ~

0.20 0.50 0.30 0.I0

18S0

i tO 0

1950

2000

2050

Fig. 14. Global primary energy substitution from 1960 to 1982 and projections for the future, expressed in fractional market shares (FL Smooth lines represent model calculations, and jagged lines are historical data. Solfus is a term employed to describe a major new energy technology, for example, solar or fusion. Source: Griibler and Naki~enovi~ [4]; Naki~enovi~ [8].

the growth of steel, steamships, and many other sectors are associated with and based on technological opportunities offered by the mature coal economy. After the 1960s oil assumed a d o m i n a n t role simultaneously with the maturing of the automotive, petrochemical, and other industries. The current reliance on coal in m a n y developing countries illustrates the gap between the structure of primary energy supply and actual final energy needs. Figure 14 projects natural gas as the d o m i n a n t source of energy during the first decades of the next century, although oil still maintains the second largest share until the 2040s. For such an explorative look into the future, additional assumptions are required to describe the future competition of potential new energy sources, such as nuclear, solar, and other renewables that have not yet captured sufficient market shares to allow an estimation of their penetration rates. In the future we assume that nuclear energy will diffuse at comparable rates as oil and natural gas half a century earlier. Such a scenario would require a new generation of nuclear installations; today such prospects are at best questionable. This leaves natural gas with the lion's share of primary energy over the next 50 years. In the past new sources of energy have emerged, from time to time coinciding with the saturation and subsequent decline of the d o m i n a n t competitor. Solfus is a term employed to describe a major new energy technology, for example, solar or fusion, that could emerge during the 2040s at the time when natural gas is expected to saturate. This analysis of primary energy substitution and market penetration suggests that natural gas will become the d o m i n a n t energy source and remain so for half a century,


f/(1

15

- f) = H / C

F r a c t i o n f = H / ( C + H)

10 2

0.99

World

101

Nonfossil

_

- 0.90

H/C = 4

_

0.50

10-I _

-0.10

10 0

10-2 1800

I

1

1

1900

2000

2100

0.01

Fig. 15. Hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of global primary energy from 1860 to 1982 and projections for the future, expressed in fractional shares of hydrogen and carbon in average primary energy consumed (H/C). Source: Marchetti [6].

perhaps to be replaced by carbon-free energy sources, such as nuclear, solar, or fusion. Thus, primary energy substitution implies a gradual continuation of energy decarbonization in the world. The methane economy could provide a bridge toward a carbon-flee future. Figure 15 shows the resulting changes in the hydrogen-to-carbon ratio from global primary energy substitution. Fuelwood has the highest carbon content, with about one hydrogen per 10 carbon atoms. If consumed unsustainably, as was the case in the past and still is in most developing countries, fuelwood has higher carbon emissions than all the fossil energy forms. From the fossil energy sources coal has the lowest hydrogen-to-carbon atomic ratio of roughly one to one. Oil has on average two hydrogen atoms per one carbon atom, and natural gas or methane, four. These factors are used in Figure 15 to determine the hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of global energy. The ratio can be expected to increase as projected in Figure 15 to the asymptotic level of four hydrogen atoms to one carbon atom if natural gas becomes the d o m i n a n t form of energy. Further improvements would have to be achieved by the introduction of non fossil energy sources, such as nuclear, solar, fusion, and sustainable use of biomass and other renewables. The methane economy offers a bridge to this nonfossil energy future consistent with both the dynamics of primary energy substitution and steadily increasing carbon intensity of final energy. As nonfossil

16

N. NAKIt~ENOVI(2 40

35

30

25

"E (D

Z.

20

15

//

A/

/ I0 J

J I__L 1900

I 1910

1920

1930

i 1940

, 1950

I 1960

~ 1970

l 1980

L__ 1990

Fig, 16. Share of world primary energy going to electricity. Source: Schilling and Hildebrandt [10l;

UN [111.

energy sources are introduced in the primary energy mix, new energy conversion systems would be required to provide other zero-carbon energy carriers in addition to growing shares of electricity. As suggested in Figure 15, an ideal candidate is hydrogen. Thus, the methane economy would lead to a greater role for energy gases and later hydrogen in conjunction with electricity. H y d r o g e n and electricity could provide virtually pollutionfree and environmentally benign energy carriers. Figure 16 shows the increase in the share of electricity in the world that is complementary to the increase of the hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of primary energy. To the extent that both hydrogen and electricity might be produced from methane, the separated carbon could be contained and subsequently stored within the energy sector, e.g., in the depleted oil and gas fields. As the methane contribution to global energy saturates and subsequently declines, carbon-free sources of energy would take over and eliminate the need for carbon handling and storage. This would also conclude the decarbonization process in the world. Conclusion

The energy system o f the distant future that would rely on electricity and hydrogen as two complementary energy carriers and final energy forms would represent a gigantic step toward dematerialization. Electrons have an extremely low mass, and hydrogen has the lowest mass of all atoms, consisting only of a proton and an electron. This transition would radically reduce the total mass flow associated with energy activities and, more important, the resulting emissions. Electricity is emission free, and a p p r o p r i a t e hydrogen combustion results in water. Decarbonization would not only contribute t o w a r d dematerialization, but also it is consistent with the emergence of new technologies that hold the

DECARBONIZATION: D O I N G MORE W I T H LESS

17

promise of higher flexibility, productivity, and environmental compatibility. Microelectronics, bio- and nanotechnologies, virtual reality, and information and communication systems are all more compatible with a hydrogen-electricity economy than with any other. References 1. Ausubel, J. H., and Gri.ibler, A., Working Less and Living Longer. Part 1: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets. 2. Ausubel, J. H., Griibler, A., and Nakidenovi~, N., Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy, Climatic Change 12:245-263 (1988). 3. Griibler, A., Energy in the 21 st Century: From Resource to Environmental and Lifestyle Constraints, Entropie 164/165:29-33 (1991). 4. Gri~bler, A., and Naki~enovi~, N., The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies, in The Methane Age. T. H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds., Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1988. 5. Maddison, A., Dynamics Forces in Capitalist Development. A Long-Run Comparative View, Oxford University Press, New York, 1991. 6. Marchetti, C., When WiHHydrogen Come?, WP-82-123, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1982). 7. Marchetti, C., and Naki~enovi~, N., The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, RR-79-13, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1979). 8. Naki~enovi~, N., Dynamics of Change and Long Waves, in Life Cycles and Long Waves, T. Vasko, R. Ayres, and L. Fontvielle, eds., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1990. 9. Naki6enovi~, N., Griibler, A., and Ahamer, G., Decarbonization of the World, Representative Countries and Regions, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1993). 10. Schilling, H.-D., and Hildebrandt, R., Primary Energy: Electric Energy, Rohstoffwirtschaft International 6:5-39 (1977). 11. United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook, United Nations, New York, 1992a. 12. United Nations, Long-Range World Population Projections." Two Centuries of Population Growth, 19502150, United Nations, New York, 1992b. 13. Vu, M. T., World Population Projection, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1985. 14. Williams, R. H., Larson, E. D., and Ross, M. H., Materials Affluence and Industrial Energy Use, Annual Review of Energy, 12:99-144 (1987). 15. Yamaji, K., Matsuhashi, R., Nagata, Y., and Kaya, Y., An Integrated Systems for CO2/Energy/GNP Analysis: Case Studies on Economic Measures for CO2 Reduction in Japan, Paper presented at the Workshop on CO2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the Next Century, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 19-21 March 1991.

Received May 31, 1995

ScienceDirect - Technological Forecasting and Social Change : Decarbonization: Doing m... Seite 1 von 3

Login: Register

Home

Browse

Quick Search

Search

Abstract Databases

My Settings

Alerts

Help

Title, abstract, keywords

Author

Journal/book title

Volume

e.g. j s

Issue

Page

4 of 5 Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 51, Issue 1 , January 1996, Pages 1-17 doi:10.1016/0040-1625(95)00167-0 Copyright © 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

Decarbonization: Doing more with less*1 Neboj a naki enovi

,1

Dr Neboj a Naki enovi is Project Leader of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Received 31 May 1995. Available online 19 February 1999.

Abstract

This Document Abstract Abstract + References ·Full Size Images PDF (853 K) External Links

Abstract + References in Scopus Cited By in Scopus Actions Cited By Save as Citation Alert E-mail Article Export Citation

This article demonstrates that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and that carbon emissions have also decreased per unit energy. Energy is one of the most important factor inputs so that decreases in specific energy requirements contribute toward decreasing material intensity. Carbon dioxide emissions represent one of the largest single mass flows associated with human activities. Therefore, decarbonization contributes in a large way toward dematerializaton. At the global level decarbonization occurs at about 0.3% per year, and reduction of energy intensity of value added stands at 1% per year, resulting in overall carbon intensity of value added reduction of about 1.3% per year. The pervasiveness of decarbonization in the world, is illustrated for five representative countries. The case histories show that developing countries are undergoing basically the same process of decarbonization of final energy use as do most developed ones. However, carbon intensity of primary energy is increasing in some developing countries and should a reversal not occur in the forthcoming decades, it is likely the decarbonization in the industrialized countries could be offset by this tendency. Thus, the possibility cannot be entirely excluded that carbon dioxide emissions would increase faster than economic growth. These opposing tendencies could be bridged in the future if the energy system restructures toward larger reliance on natural gas, biomass, nuclear energy, and other zero-carbon options. For example, the methane economy could lead to a greater role for energy gases (and later hydrogen) in conjunction with electricity. Such an energy system would represent a gigantic step toward decarbonization and it would also be consistent with the emergence of new technologies that hold the promise of higher flexibility, productivity, and environmental compatibility.

References

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V71-3VV6922-1&_user=... 29.11.2006


1. Ausubel, J. H., and Grübler, A., Working Less and Living Longer, Part 1: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets. 2. J.H. Ausubel, A. Grübler and N. Naki enovi , Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy. Climatic Change 12 (1988), pp. 245–263. Full Text via CrossRef | Abstract + References in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus 3. A. Grübler, Energy in the 21st Century: From Resource to Environmental and Lifestyle Constraints. Entropie 164/165 (1991), pp. 29–33. 4. A. Grübler and N. Naki enovi , The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies. In: T.H. Lee, H.R. Linden, D.A. Dreyfus and T. Vasko, Editors, The Methane Age, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands (1988). 5. A. Maddison, Dynamics Forces in Capitalist Development. In: A Long-Run Comparative View, Oxford University Press, New York (1991). 6. C. Marchetti, When Will Hydrogen Come? WP-82-123 . , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1982). 7. C. Marchetti and N. Naki enovi , The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model RR-79-13 . , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1979). 8. N. Naki enovi , Dynamics of Change and Long Waves. In: T. Vasko, R. Ayres and L. Fontvielle, Editors, Life Cycles and Long Waves, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1990). 9. N. Naki enovi , A. Grübler and G. Ahamer, Decarbonization of the World, Representative Countries and Regions. , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (1993). 10. H.-D. Schilling and R. Hildebrandt, Primary Energy: Electric Energy. Rohstoffwirtschaft International 6 (1977), pp. 5–39. 11. United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook. , United Nations, New York (1992a). 12. United Nations, Long-Range World Population Projections: Two Centuries of Population Growth, 1950–2150. , United Nations, New York (1992b). 13. M.T. Vu, World Population Projection. , Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore (1985). 14. R.H. Williams, E.D. Larson and M.H. Ross, Materials Affluence and Industrial Energy Use. Annual Review of Energy 12 (1987), pp. 99–144. Abstract-GEOBASE | Order Document | Abstract + References in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus 15. K. Yamaji, R. Matsuhashi, Y. Nagata and Y. Kaya, An Integrated Systems for CO2/Energy/GNP Analysis: Case Studies on Economic Measures for CO2 Reduction in Japan. In: Paper presented at the Workshop on CO2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the Next Century, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (19–21 March 1991).

Corresponding author. Address reprint requests to Dr. Neboj a Naki enovi , IIASA, , Laxenburg, , Austria. *1 Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the International



Institute for Applied Systems Analysis or of its national member organizations. 1 Some results

given in this article are based on the joint research of the author with the assistance of Gilbert Ahamer and Arnulf Grübler, both from IIASA.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 51, Issue 1 , January 1996, Pages 1-17

This Document Abstract Abstract + References ·Full Size Images PDF (853 K) External Links

Abstract + References in Scopus Cited By in Scopus Actions Cited By Save as Citation Alert E-mail Article Export Citation

4 of 5 Home

Browse

Search

Abstract Databases

My Settings

Alerts

Help

About ScienceDirect | Contact Us | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ScienceDirect® is a registered trademark of Elsevier B.V.


Scopus - Technological Forecasting and Social Change: Decarbonization: Doing more with less

Seite 1 von 2

Register | Login

Help

Quick Search

Scopus Labs

Search Tips

12 of 12 Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 51, Issue 1, January 1996, Pages 1-17 DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(95)00167-0 Document Type: Article

View references (15)

Cited By since 1996 This article has been cited 7 times in Scopus: (Showing the 2 most recent)

Decarbonization: Doing more with less Nakićenović, N. a a b

b

Environmentally Compatible Ener. S., Intl. Inst. for Appl. Syst. Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Sun, J.W. The decrease of CO2 emission intensity is decarbonization at national and global levels (2005) Energy Policy

Abstract This article demonstrates that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and that carbon emissions have also decreased per unit energy. Energy is one of the most important factor inputs so that decreases in specific energy requirements contribute toward decreasing material intensity. Carbon dioxide emissions represent one of the largest single mass flows associated with human activities. Therefore, decarbonization contributes in a large way toward dematerializaton. At the global level decarbonization occurs at about 0.3% per year, and reduction of energy intensity of value added stands at 1% per year, resulting in overall carbon intensity of value added reduction of about 1.3% per year. The pervasiveness of decarbonization in the world, is illustrated for five representative countries. The case histories show that developing countries are undergoing basically the same process of decarbonization of final energy use as do most developed ones. However, carbon intensity of primary energy is increasing in some developing countries and should a reversal not occur in the forthcoming decades, it is likely the decarbonization in the industrialized countries could be offset by this tendency. Thus, the possibility cannot be entirely excluded that carbon dioxide emissions would increase faster than economic growth. These opposing tendencies could be bridged in the future if the energy system restructures toward larger reliance on natural gas, biomass, nuclear energy, and other zero-carbon options. For example, the methane economy could lead to a greater role for energy gases (and later hydrogen) in conjunction with electricity. Such an energy system would represent a gigantic step toward decarbonization and it would also be consistent with the emergence of new technologies that hold the promise of higher flexibility, productivity, and environmental compatibility.

Sun, J.W. The analysis of energyrelated CO2 emissions from 1950 to 2000 (2004) International Journal of Global Energy Issues View details of all 7 citations Alert me when this document is cited in Scopus

Related Documents (by reference)

References (15) Select:

Page

1.

Ausubel, J.H., Grübler, A. Working less and Living Longer. Part 1: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets

2.

Ausubel, J.H., Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy (1988) Climatic Change, 12 (3), pp. 245-263. Cited 10 times.

3.

Grübler, A. Energy in the 21st Century: From Resource to Environmental and Lifestyle Constraints (1991) Entropie, 164-165, pp. 29-33. Cited 2 times.

4.

Grübler, A., Nakićenović, N. The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies (1988) The Methane Age. Cited 2 times. T. H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds., Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands

http://www.scopus.com/scopus/record/display.url?view=basic&origin=resultslist&eid=2-s2.0-0029730027&sort=plf... 17.06.2006

Scopus - Technological Forecasting and Social Change: Decarbonization: Doing more with less

5.

Maddison, A. (1991) Dynamics Forces in Capitalist Development. A Long-Run Comparative View. Cited 255 times. Oxford University Press, New York

6.

Marchetti, C. (1982) When Will Hydrogen Come?. Cited 2 times. WP-82-123, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

7.

Marchetti, C., Nakićenović, N. (1979) The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. Cited 36 times. RR-79-13, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

8.

Nakićenović, N. Dynamics of Change and Long Waves (1990) Life Cycles and Long Waves. Cited 4 times. T. Vasko, R. Ayres, and L. Fontvielle, eds., Springer-Verlag, Berlin

9.

Nakićenović, N., Grübler, A., Ahamer, G. (1993) Decarbonization of the World, Representative Countries and Regions International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

10.

Schilling, H.-D., Hildebrandt, R. Primary Energy: Electric Energy (1977) Rohstoffwirtschaft International, 6, pp. 5-39.

11.

(1992) Energy Statistics Yearbook. Cited 35 times. United Nations, New York

12.

(1992) Long-Range World Population Projections: Two Centuries of Population Growth, 1950-2150. Cited 44 times. United Nations, New York

13.

Vu, M.T. (1985) World Population Projection. Cited 4 times. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore

14.

Williams, R.H., Larson, E.D., Ross, M.H. Materials, affluence, and industrial energy use (1987) Annual review of energy. Vol.12, pp. 99-144. Cited 18 times.

15.

Yamaji, K., Matsuhashi, R., Nagata, Y., Kaya, Y. An Integrated Systems for CO2/Energy/GNP Analysis: Case Studies on

Seite 2 von 2

Economic Measures for CO2 Reduction in Japan (1991) Workshop on CO 2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the next Century International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 19-21 March

Nakićenović, N.; IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria © Copyright 2005 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 51, Issue 1, January 1996, Pages 1-17 12 of 12

Help

About Scopus

|

Contact us

|

Terms & Conditions

|

Scopus Labs

Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Scopus® is a registered trademark of Elsevier B.V.

http://www.scopus.com/scopus/record/display.url?view=basic&origin=resultslist&eid=2-s2.0-0029730027&sort=plf... 17.06.2006

Energy Technologies to Reduce CO2 ... - Google Book Search

Seite 1 von 1

[email protected] | My library | Web History | My Account | Sign out Search Books

Ahamer

About this book

Energy Technologies to Reduce CO2 Emissions in Europe: Prospects ...

By

International Energy Agency, International Energy Agency, Oecd By International Energy Agency, International Energy Agency, Oecd Published 1994 OECD

Papers presented at the Expert Workshop on Energy Technologies to Reduce CO2 Emissions in Europe: Prospects, Competition, Synergy, held in Petten, The Netherlands on 11-12 April 1994.

Buy this book Amazon.com Barnes&Noble.com Books-A-Million

Air quality management

BookSense.com

328 pages

Google Product Search

ISBN:9264143084

Borrow this book Find this book in a library

Original from the University of Michigan Digitized Dec 4, 2007 Add to my library Write review

Contents

Search in this book

Electricity Conservation in OECD Europe

29

Load Duration Curve, Rocky Mountains Institute, University of Groningen

Residential and Commercial Heatpumps

Ahamer

Search

1 page matching Ahamer in this book 55

absorption heat pumps, cogeneration, district heating

The Transport Sector

73

energy intensity, high speed trains, ethanol 10 other sections not shown

Where's

Key terms natural gas, wind turbines, greenhouse gas, fossil fuel, methanol, Netherlands, cogeneration, combined cycle, district heating, absorption heat pumps, primary energy, biofuels, International Energy Agency, internal combustion engines, steam reforming, Liquid Hydrogen, renewable energy, hydrogen production, reference scenario, energy intensity

Places mentioned in this book

©2008 Google - Map data ©2008 NAVTEQ™, Tele Atlas, AND, Europa Technologies - Terms of Use

1294 Algoma Road Ottawa, ON K1B 3W8 - Page 330 165 University Avenue, Suite 701 Toronto. ON M5H 3B8 - Page 330 211 Yonge Street Toronto. ON - Page 330 more »

About Google Book Search - Book Search Blog - Information for Publishers - Provide Feedback - Google Home ©2008 Google

http://books.google.com/books?id=iSJSAAAAMAAJ&q=Ahamer&dq=Ahamer&ei=...

12.04.2008

Royal Society Publishing - Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (1996-) - Volume 365 - Number 1... Seite 1 von 2

Deutsch

Zeitschriften | Autoren | Subscribers | Readers | Useful Info |

RS Home | My Account Online Journals Home

Zeitschriftenbeitrag Beitrag markieren

Willkommen! To purchase content or use the personalized features of this site, please ensure that you Login or Jetzt registrieren.

Pathways to hydrogen as an energy carrier

Zugangsdaten vergessen? Hilfe.

Use Coupon Gespeicherte Beiträge Alle

Volume 365, Number 1853 / April 15, 2007

Editor(s)

Katherine Blundell Fraser Armstrong 1025-1042

Issue Title

Markierte Beiträge

Meine Bestellungen

Heft

Seiten

Personalization

Alerts

Add Electronic Article to Shopping Cart

DOI

Discussion Meeting Issue ‘Energy for the future’ compiled by Katherine Blundell and Fraser Armstrong 10.1098/rsta.2006.1960

Autoren

Ergebnisse finden

Zu gespeicherten Artikeln hinzufügen Diesen Artikel empfehlen

Advanced Search

Thorsteinn I. Sigfusson1 1

University of Iceland, Dunhagi 3, 107 Reykjavik, Iceland

Zusammenfassung When hydrogen is used as an alternative energy carrier, it is very important to understand the pathway from the primary energy source to the final use of the carrier. This involves, for example, the understanding of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of hydrogen and throughout the lifecycle of a given utilization pathway as well as various energy or exergy1 efficiencies and aspects involved. This paper which is based on a talk given at the Royal Society in London assesses and reviews the various production pathways for hydrogen with emphasis on emissions, energy use and energy efficiency. The paper also views some aspects of the breaking of the water molecule and examines some new emerging physical evidence which could pave the way to a new and more feasible pathway.

... Go im gesamten Inhalt in dieser Zeitschrift in diesem Heft Diesen Beitrag exportieren Diesen Beitrag exportieren als RIS | Text Text

PDF

PDF ist das gebräuchliche Format für Online Publikationen. Die Größe dieses Dokumentes beträgt 225 Kilobyte. Je nach Art Ihrer Internetverbindung kann der Download einige Zeit in Anspruch A special attention will be given to the use of the renewable energy pathway. As an example of a hydrogen society that could be based on nehmen. renewable primary energy, the paper describes the hydrogen society experiments in Iceland as well as unconventional hydrogen obtained öffnen: Gesamtdokument from geothermal gases. In the light of our experience, attempts will be made to shed light upon drivers as well as obstacles in the HTML development of a hydrogen society.

Schlüsselwörter hydrogen, production, raw materials, utilization, emission, life cycle

Literatur Arnason, B. & Sigfússon, T.I. 2000 Iceland—a future hydrogen economy. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 25, 389–394, (doi:10.1016/S03603199(99)00077-4). [CrossRef]

HTML bietet eine schnellere Bildschirmdarstellung und bessere Verlinkung. Zu beachten ist, dass der Browser unter Umständen Sonderzeichen nicht richtig darstellt Open Full Text

Balachandran, U., Lee, T.H., Wang, S. & Dorris, S.E. 2004 Use of mixed conducting membranes to produce hydrogen by water dissociation. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 29, 291–296, (doi:10.1016/S0360-3199(03)00134-4). [CrossRef] Dönitz, W., Erdle, R. & Streicher, R. 1990 High temperature electrochemical technology for hydrogen production and power generation. Electrochemical hydrogen technologies. Electrochemical production and combustion of hydrogen (ed. Wendt, H.), pp. 213–259, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Fujishima, A.K. & Honda, K. 1972 Electrochemical photolysis of water in a semiconductor electrode. Nature (London) 238, 37–38, (doi:10.1038/238037a0). [CrossRef]

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/51607g0321242lj6/

01.11.2007

Royal Society Publishing - Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (1996-) - Volume 365 - Number 1... Seite 2 von 2

IEA, International Energy Agency 2006 Energy technology perspectives, scenarios and perspectives to 2050. Paris, France: OECD/IEA. Ion, S. 2007 Nuclear energy: current situation and prospects to 2020. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365, 935–944, (doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1958). [CrossRef] IPHE, International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy 2006 www.iphe.net. www.iphe.net Jensen, S. H. & Mogensen M. 2004 Perspectives of high temperature electrolysis using SOEC. In 19th World Energy Congress, Sydney, Australia, 5–7 Sept. Printed in Proceedings. Joergensen, B. Andersen, P. Eerola, A. Loikanen, T. Koljonen, T. Pursiheimo, E. & Sigfusson, T. I. 2004 Working the futures, preliminary results from the Nordic H2 foresight. In 15th World Hydrogen Energy Conf. 28 June–1 July, p. 9. Published in Proceedings. Laherrére, J. H. 2001 Estimates of oil reserves. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. Larminie, J. & Dicks, A. 2002 Fuel cell systems explained. London, UK: Wiley. Maack, M.K. & Skulason, J.B. 2005 Implementing the hydrogen economy. J. Cleaner Production 14, 52–64, Elsevier Publications, (doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2005.05.027). [CrossRef] Nakicenovic, N., Grübler, A. & Ahamer, G. 1993 Decarbonization of the world, representative countries and regions. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Nitsch, J. & Winter, C.-J. 1988 Hydrogen as an energy carrier, technologies, systems and economy. Berlin, Germany: Springer. Oslund, H.G. & Alexander, J. 1963 Oxidation rate of sulfide in sea water, a preliminary study. J. Geophys. Res. 68, (13), 3995. Rogner, H.-H. 1997 An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 22, 217–262, (doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.217). [CrossRef] Sigfusson, T. I. 2005a Ĺile de Jules Verne. In Decouverte, Revue du Palais de la decouverte, Paris, pp. 64–73. Sigfusson, T.I. 2005 Transport fuels from renewable sources: the Icelandic hydrogen project. Technology in society—society in technology (eds. Jónsson, O.D. & Huijbens, E.H.), pp. 251–266, Oxford, UK: University of Iceland Press Sigfusson, T. I. 2005c Renewable energy island. In Renewable energy 2205, pp. 95–98. Published by the Revewable Energy Network in association with UNESCO. Sigfusson, T. I. Wang, S. & Arnason, B. 2005 Hydrogen production and utilization from geothermal gasses. In Int. Hydrogen Energy Congress and Exhibition, Istanbul, 13–15 July 2005, p. 13. Published in Proceedings. Smil, V. 1987 Energy, food, environment: realities, myths, options. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Smil, V. 2003 Energy at the crossroads: global perspectives and uncertainties, p. 427. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 2004 The hydrogen energy transition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier USGS, United States Geological Survey 2000 homepage www.usgs.gov. www.usgs.gov FeedBack Privacy and Security Policy Site Map

Copyright © Royal Society 2007 Terms & Conditions of Online Access

Remote Address: 213.47.49.178 • Server: mpweb03 HTTP User Agent: Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727)

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/51607g0321242lj6/

01.11.2007