Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable

Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Algeria

Study funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and Stiftung Mercator GmbH

LUT Energy System Model

 The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity generation, energy storage and electricity transmission  The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year  Real weather data were used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources  The LUT model as of 2017 is the only one to run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale  The LUT model will be further applied to all energy sectors for a follow-up study 2

Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Algeria more information ► [email protected], [email protected]

Algeria - Overview

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Algeria is located in North Africa and consists of 9% of total population in the MENA region Algeria is assumed as an island with no connection with neighbouring countries The current power system is dominated by fossil gas (95%) Algeria accounts for 13% of total electricity demand in the MENA region Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Algeria more information ► [email protected], [email protected]

Algeria - Power Plant Infrastructure

source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

Key insights:  Historically, a significant share of fossil gas in the generation mix is observed  Solar PV and wind are growing, but slowly

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Algeria (Solar, Wind) Solar PV generation profile

Wind generation profile

Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule

Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule

Key insights:  Wind: excellent resource availability with some seasonal variation  Solar PV: Almost evenly distributed throughout the year with diurnal variation 5


Algeria - Full Load Hours

Key insights:  Wind: Distribution is unevenly distributed in the country, concentrated mostly in the center  Solar PV: Almost evenly distributed throughout the country with perfect conditions in the southern part 6


Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand

Key insights:  The average compound annual growth rate for electricity demand is assumed to be 2.6% in the energy transition period  The population in Algeria is expected to grow from 39 to 56 million, while the average per capita electricity demand rises from 1.4 to 2.4 MWh  The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 56 TWh in 2015 to around 138 TWh in the year 2050

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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation Installed Capacity

Electricity Generation

Key insights:  Solar PV increasingly drives most of the system, while wind energy complements  High additional capacity of wind energy in 2025 due to significant potential and cost competitiveness  Solar PV supply share increases from 48% in 2030 to about 76% in 2050 becoming the least cost energy source

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Storage Requirements

Key insights:  Batteries are the most important supporting technology for solar PV  The key role of prosumers in the power system is observed via battery storage  A significant share of gas storage is installed to provide seasonal storage  Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is used for SNG (76%) and bio-methane (24%), which is not accounted in the storage output diagrams but as bioenergy generation 9


Storage Operation Modes (2050)

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Battery 365 x 24

Gas 365 x 24

Hydro reservoirs 365 x 24 (if applicable)

Key insights:  Battery storage balances on a daily basis  Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way  Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with solar and wind but is also used as seasonal storage (mostly in summer)


Electricity System Cost during Transition

Key insights:  The power system LCOE decline from 71.1 €/MWh to 49.0 €/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation, storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs  Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 49.0 €/MWh by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition result in reduction of energy costs  After an initial increase, the investment requirements decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2040 to 2050

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CO2 Emissions Reduction

Key insights:  GHG emissions can be reduced from about 25.1 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of the power system declines  GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system  What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 91% to 2.6 MtCO2eq by 2030 and 97% to 0.8 MtCO2eq by 2035 is possible, which is well before 2050  The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to the current energy system

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Summary – Energy Transition  Algeria can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissions by 2050

 The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 49.0 €/MWh by 2050  Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 77% of the total electricity supply by 2050  Excellent wind conditions in Algeria results in noticeable contribution of wind energy to the total generation  Main RE sources that contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 are as follows:  76% solar PV  20% wind energy  1% hydropower  1% bioenergy

 Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 92% of total storage output  Cost of storage contributes substantially (46%) to the total energy system LCOE  GHG emissions can be reduced from about 25 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050  High investment requires for the beginning of energy transition  A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option 13


Further Findings Results for the entire MENA region are available: 

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MENA region

http://bit.ly/2lDUib0


The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.

Further information and all publications at: www.energywatchgroup.org www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer