Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Finland
Study funded by the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and Stiftung Mercator GmbH
LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity generation, energy storage and electricity transmission The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study 2
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Finland - Overview
Finland is considered as an isolated power system The power system is mainly based on fossil and nuclear power plants
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Finland - Power Plant Infrastructure
source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
Key insights: Historically, a significant share of fossil and nuclear power plants in the generation mix is observed In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in the share of installed capacity, particularly bioenergy and wind
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Finland (Solar, Wind) Solar PV generation profile
Wind generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed using the weighed average rule
Key insights: Wind: Seasonal variation and overall distribution is uneven, high generation during the winter Solar PV: Good PV resource availability during summer and almost zero during the winter Overall resource variability is substantially reduced by PV and wind complementarity 5
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Finland - Full Load Hours
Key insights: Wind: Excellent wind conditions in regions along the coastline, overall distribution is uneven Solar PV: Moderate PV conditions 6
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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights: The average compound annual growth rate of electricity of about 1.2% in the energy transition period is assumed The population of Finland is expected to increase slightly from 5.5 to 5.7 million, while the average per capita electricity demand rises from 13.9 to 20.2 MWh The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 78 TWh in 2015 to around 116 TWh in the year 2050
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation Installed Capacity
Electricity Generation
Key insights: Wind and bioenergy increasingly drive most of the system, while solar PV and hydropower complement Wind supply share increases from 2% in 2015 to about 39% in 2050, becoming the least cost energy source Hydropower and other RE resources can provide flexibility and supply security in the power system 8
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Storage Requirements
Key insights: Batteries are the most important supporting technology for solar PV A significant share of gas storage is installed to provide seasonal storage Significant share of prosumers is noticed in the system Battery emerges the key storage technology in terms of storage throughput Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is used for SNG (33%) and bio-methane (67%), which is not accounted in the storage output diagrams but as bioenergy generation 9
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Storage Operation Modes (2050) Battery 365 x 24
Gas 365 x 24
Key insights: Battery storage balances on a daily basis Gas storage reacts in a very flexible and seasonal way
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights: The power system LCOE increase slightly from 54.1 €/MWh to 57.5 €/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation, storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs Beyond 2035 the LCOE slightly declines to 57.5 €/MWh by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition result in a reduction of energy costs The investment requirements rise sharply around 2025 and then continuously decline till 2050 11
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CO2 Emissions Reduction
Key insights: GHG emissions can be reduced from about 21 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of the power system declines GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 94% to 4 MtCO2eq by 2030 and 99% to 0.3 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the energy system LCOE The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to the current energy system
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Summary I – Energy Transition Finland can achieve 100% RE and zero GHG emissions power system by 2050 The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 57.5 €/MWh by 2050 Wind emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 39% of the total electricity supply by 2050 Solar PV and bioenergy contribute 23% each to the total electricity supply in 2050 Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 82% of total storage output Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is 28% GHG emissions can be reduced from about 21 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050 A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
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Summary II – Energy System 2050 Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for the year 2050 Total LCOE average is around 57.5 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs)
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows: 39% wind energy 23% solar PV 23% bioenergy 11% hydropower Wind, bioenergy and solar PV are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition Seasonal variation and very good resource conditions are the key reasons for the importance of wind energy Balancing effect throughout the year, resulting in less overall variability
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Further Findings Results for entire Europe are available:
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Europe
http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a
Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Finland more information ►
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The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at: www.energywatchgroup.org www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer