How much energy storage is needed to incorporate ...

How much energy storage is needed to incorporate very large intermittent renewables? A. A. Solomon, Michael Child, Upeksha Caldera, Christian Breyer

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Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland IRES 2017, Düsseldorf, Germany March 16, 2016

Highlights  Availability of larger and larger storage may not mean higher and higher grid penetration of VRE, as it also depends on several other factors. Mix of storage technologies can be helpful.  Storage with energy capacity less than 1 daily average demand was sufficient to arrive at VRE penetration of approximately 90% of the annual demand at total loss of about 20%.  Techno-economic models have shown a capacity as high as 22 daily average demand to arrive at 99% VRE penetration at reduced energy loss, while others report capacity less than daily average demand at much larger energy curtailment.  We conclude that designing a least cost future energy systems should involve broader principles as compared to the existing market economic and “reliability of supply” lead designing strategy. 2

How much energy storage is needed to incorporate very large intermittent renewables? Solomon A. A. ► [email protected]

Agenda

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Motivation Grounds for comparison and Data How large can a storage be? Summary and Conclusions


Motivation  Energy storage garnered significant attention due to its promise to increase the role of VRE in 100% RE systems  Various studies tried to estimate storage capacity need to transition to energy systems that significantly depend on VRE (wind and solar PV).  No Global picture regarding storage need has emerged due to: 1. Significant differences in the employed modeling techniques, storage technology mix, and constraints 2. Differences in baseline assumptions regarding energy storage and others  Can systematic comparison of reported data bring new insights? Disclaimer: 1. Achieving 100% VRE is not a necessity to reach to 100% RE (net zero emission energy system). Discussion of 100% VRE is motivated by in order to clarify the complexity of storage design to the possible breadth. 2. The study aims at motivating new thinking in the area to arrive at better energy system designing approaches. 4


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Grounds for comparison  Energy storage modeling is a work on progress due to challenges related to:  Several abstraction parameters required to correctly characterize technologies.  Uncertainties around the operational policies and pricing of the future system.  Varieties of models involving energy storage:  Those estimating energy storage capacity need for 100% VRE  Techno-economic models assessing storage as a key technology  Those studying factors affecting storage design and storage capacity needs

 Can we use simple criteria for comparison? No. But we can build on lessons drawn regarding factors affecting storage design and use where possible constraints affecting storage design could be identified. 6


Grounds for comparison Factors affecting storage need  Level of grid penetration

 Grid penetration increases initially with energy storage capacity but it levels off after some threshold (at less than daily average demand)  Storage use also increases with storage capacity until it reaches certain peak where it starts to decrease.

Data source: Solomon, A.A. D. Faiman, G. Meron. Properties and uses of storage for enhancing the grid penetration of very large-scale photovoltaic systems. Energy Policy, 38 (2010), 5208–5222 Solomon, A.A., D. Faiman, G. Meron. Appropriate storage for high-penetration grid-connected photovoltaic plants, Energy Policy, 40 (2011) 335–344 Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. The role of large-scale energy storage design and dispatch in the power grid: a study of very high grid penetration of variable renewable resources. Appl. Energy, 134 (2014), 75–89

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Grounds for comparison Factors affecting storage need  Energy Curtailment

 Energy curtailment increases the use of energy storage to increase VRE grid penetration.  Energy curtailment also reduces the balancing requirement that comes from conventional power plants often termed as “backup”.

Data source: Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. The role of large-scale energy storage design and dispatch in the power grid: a study of very high grid penetration of variable renewable resources. Appl. Energy, 134 (2014), 75–89 Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. Investigating the impact of wind–solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corresponding supply reliability criteria. Appl. Energy, 168 (2016), 130–145

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Grounds for comparison Factors affecting storage need  Storage design and dispatch Identifying an optimal power and energy capacity and location of the storage is vital.

Flexible dispatching could allow storage to have varying role depending on season on the year Data source: Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. The role of large-scale energy storage design and dispatch in the power grid: a study of very high grid penetration of variable renewable resources. Appl. Energy, 134 (2014), 75–89 Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. Investigating the impact of wind–solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corresponding supply reliability criteria. Appl. Energy, 168 (2016), 130–145

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Grounds for comparison Factors affecting storage need  Resource complementarity:  wind and solar were shown to give a multi-dimensional advantage to the future grid as compared to wind/solar technologies as a stand-alone.  Other resources could also contribute to the reduction of storage capacity need  Relevant reliability and reserve criteria:  Most present criteria should be re-evaluated based on the enabling policies and future share of VRE Comparative criteria:  focus on studies that are based on hourly models. From those, we included studies dealing with the case of Saudi Arabia and Finland as well as studies based on the Israeli and California grid because of the readily availability of the result data. Relevant Data’s presented in studies of EU and PJMinterconnections are also used. Data source: Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. The role of large-scale energy storage design and dispatch in the power grid: a study of very high grid penetration of variable renewable resources. Appl. Energy, 134 (2014), 75–89 Solomon, A.A., D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway. Investigating the impact of wind–solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corresponding supply reliability criteria. Appl. Energy, 168 (2016), 130–145

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LUT transition model Full system Renewable energy sources • PV rooftop • PV ground-mounted • PV single-axis tracking • Wind onshore/ offshore • Hydro run-of-river • Hydro dam • Geothermal energy • CSP • Waste-to-energy • Biogas • Biomass Electricity transmission • node-internal AC transmission • interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options • Batteries • Pumped hydro storage • Adiabatic compressed air storage • Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat • Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Energy Demand • Water electrolysis • Electricity • Methanation • Industrial Gas • CO2 from air • Desalination How much energy storage is needed to incorporate very large intermittent renewables? • Gas storage 11 Solomon A. A. ► [email protected]

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How large can a storage be? Typical parameters and corresponding values: Parameters of interest

Region/country of the study Finland KSA KSA integrated integrated

Israel

Californi Europe a

PJM

VRE Penetration [% of annual demand] Energy storage capacity [GWh]

70

99

98

90

85

100

100

3990

37473

38381

113

186

16,000

891

Energy storage capacity [daily average demand (DAD)]

8.6

18.7

21.6

0.83

0.22

1.8

1.2

Total Energy loss [% of total VRE 6 (2.5% 16 (10% 17 (11% generation] storage loss) storage loss) storage loss) Annual demand during the 105 729 650 studied year [TWh]

20 (12% storage loss) 50.2

20 (3% storage loss) 302

>50

>50

3240

276

Usefulness index [a.u.]

6.3

11.6

186

220

NA

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Storage Efficiency Share of other RE resources [% of annual demand]

mix 30 (hydro, biomass)

mix mix 75% 1 2 10 (geothermal) (geotherma l)

75% 15

100% 0

81% 0

Energy sectors investigated

Power plus heat sector

power, desalination

power

power

power

10

power

power

Data source: references listed at 4-6, 8-10,16-18 given at the end of this slides.

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 Storage capacity (in units of DAD) depended on total energy losses, VRE penetrations and resources mix.  Large storage is related to smaller curtailment and vice versa.  Sector coupling and broader resource complementarity can reduce energy storage capacity requirement.

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Summary and Conclusions  Reported storage capacities depend on various factors. Studies reported cost of electricity comparable to the present one under various conditions.  An energy storage capacity of about 1 daily average demand could suffice to arrive at VRE penetration of approximately 90% of the annual demand at total energy loss of about 20% of the total VRE generation.  Depending on resources, a further VRE grid penetration target may require increased storage capacity or massive energy curtailment or a combinations of both.  Our loose approximation shows that storage capacity of about 6 daily average demand suffices to reach to VRE penetration higher than 98% of the annual demand at moderate total energy loss (approximately 25% depending on resource diversity).  Techno-economic models have reported storage capacity as high as 22 daily average demand at lower total energy loss (approximately 17% of the VRE generation).  Note that the mismatch between the VRE and load profile leads to least efficient resource use if 100% renewable grid was aspired from VRE alone. But 100% RE (net zero emission) obtained by targeting up to 90% VRE penetration (complemented with other RE resources) could result in more efficient energy system.  Designing a future energy systems should involve broader principles as compared to the existing market economic and “reliability of supply” led designing strategy. At the core of this principle of reaching to a net zero emission energy system should be a commitment to limit material intensity of the future energy system.

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A WORLD ELECTRIFIED BY SOLAR AND WIND

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KIITOS.

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31. 32. 33. 34.

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