IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POWER ...

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POWER SECTOR IN NORTHERN NIGERIA BY Mejabi, Dele Joseph Jacksolomon, Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria-Nigeria +2348038139433/+2348189907173 & HABILA, Sunday Kazahshii Department of Urban Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Design, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria-Nigeria [email protected]/ [email protected] +2348036042982 Abstract Electricity as a vital tool in national development is receiving increasing attention from various regimes of Government in Nigeria. Obviously, there is a great deal of potentials for investors in the country; this is the idea behind the recent reforms in the industry. However, there lie a number of critical issues that must be addressed to ensure a high and efficient electricity power supply and distribution across the national grid. The electricity market in Nigeria is facing multi-variant challenges ranging from distribution equipment vandalism, climate variability and change and corruption. This paper focuses on impacts of climate change on power supply and the challenges facing electricity generation in Northern Nigeria and possible ways by which the nation can build a sustainable electricity market. Climatic data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Lagos and that of electricity from the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Kaduna were used for the study and analysed by different cartographic and statistical techniques. The findings revealed that Nigeria has large technically exploitable hydropower potentials but only 19% is currently being tapped. Since over 90% of electricity generation in Nigeria is based on hydro (rivers) mainly found in northern part of the country, seasonal climatic variability greatly affects the volume generated with the lowest volume in the dry season and this will be worsened with intensifying climate change impacts. Solar, wind, biomass, etc are also in abundance all year round in Nigeria but are largely untapped leading to acute electricity shortage. Sustainable power supply in Nigeria will be dependent on proper government policy, financial and technical capability, mitigation on climate change and public acceptance for their installation. Keywords: Climate Change, Variability, Power, Energy Production, Challenge, Northern Nigeria.

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INTRODUCTION Climate change and climate variability is receiving much attention recently because it has significant effects on our power and energy sector and also on the socio-economic activities of the society especially in a developing country such as Nigeria. Climate change will have wide-ranging impacts on society and the infrastructure that supports civilization (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017, retrieved from www.britannica.com/EBChecked/topic/309796/Kainji-Dam). Global warming could impact not only on agriculture and human health but also patterns of human settlement, energy use, transportation, industry, environmental quality and other aspects of infrastructure that affect our quality of life (IPCC, 2007). The energy crisis in Nigeria is one of the many areas where the failure of government to address the needs of the governed has created real confidence problem for successive administrations (Abarshi, R. A. and Gakure, R. W., 2014). In a country with a projected population size of 182.2 million people (National Population Commission, 2016) with fluctuating electricity supply output of between 2,500 MW and 4,000 MW in decades, stunted economic growth and social development is a manifest consequence. With Nigeria's proven crude oil reserves at 37,070 million barrel and proven natural gas reserves at 5,111 billion cu. m, the country produces between 2.5m and 3.3 m barrels of oil per day and 5.78 mm cf of gas per day. Of this quantity of gas produced, 80 % of it is flared while 12 % is re-injected to enhance oil production (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 2015). This leaves the nation utilizing only about 8 % of its produced gas for both domestic and industrial uses as well as for export. As for the ambitious Nigerian government, since Oil and Gas Sector accounts for about 35 % of Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 80 % of government revenue and 95 % of foreign exchange earnings, it plans to increase oil production to 4 mm bpd by 2015. The purpose of this is to enhance government's revenue profile without incurring huge costs in other crude oil utilization projects, such as construction of more refineries, petrochemical plants and fertilizer blending facilities, among others (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 2015). On average, the nation has generation capability of 5,700MWH/H, 86% of this capability is from gas-fired thermal power stations. The remaining 14% is from the three large hydroelectric power stations. The figure below shows the present capacity. The Nigeria power system is characterized by huge gap between supply and demand; current power demand is estimated at 17,520MW including latent and suppressed demand, against 5,300MW peak generation. As a result, about 90million Nigerians have been reported to have no access to electricity (retrieved from www.africanprogresspanel.org). Out of this nonelectrified population, 17 million people live in urban areas, while 73 million live in rural areas. This means majority of the non-electrified live in off-grid areas where grid supply is not economical and may not be sustainable due to high cost of constructing transmission infrastructure (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2016).

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Fig. 1: Average Generating Capacity and Energy Mix for Nigeria. Source: The Nigerian Power Sector Investment Opportunities and Guidelines (2016). In Nigeria, waterfalls are used to generate electricity. The main HEP stations are located in the northern part. They include Kainji HEP station; the largest and foremost dam on the river Niger in Niger State, Jebba HEP station on River Niger in Niger State, Shiroro Gorge HEP station on River Kaduna in Niger State and Kurra Falls HEP station on River Kurra in Plateau State. Kainji had a generating capacity of 520MW (Ifesanya, A. O., 2006). The dam was designed to have a generating capacity of 960 MW, however only 8 of its 12 turbines have been installed reducing the capacity to 760MW.The dam and others listed above generates electricity for all the major cities in Nigeria particularly those in the north ((Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017, retrieved from www.britannica.com/EBChecked/topic/309796/Kainji-Dam). The only Gas power stations in the northern Nigeria is Gerugu Phase I and II power stations with installed capacity of 414 MW and 434 MW built in 2007 and 2012 both located in Kogi State(Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017, retrieved from www.britannica.com/EBChecked/topic/309796/Kainji-Dam). Table 1: Major Hydro Power Stations in Northern in Nigeria. Location

Name of Reservoir

Name of River

Location

Kainji Lake Lake Jebba Lake Shiroro Gotowa Lake

Niger

Niger State Niger State Kaduna State Zamfara State Kano State Adamaw a State Taraba State

1.

Kainji

2.

Jebba

3.

Shiroro

4.

Zamfara

5.

Kano

6.

Kiri

Kiri Lake

Guyuk,

7.

Mambilla

Gembu, Sum and Nghu Lake

Donga

Niger Niger Bunsuru Hadeija

Installed Capacity (MW) 800

Available Capacity (MW) 174

Year of Complet ion 1968

Number of Unit

540

501

1985

6

600

454

1990

6

100

100

2012

-

100

46.2

2015

-

35

-

2016

-

3,050

-

2018

-

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Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, [accessed 10, July 2017]. According to IPCC, climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J. P., Eds. (2008). Droughts and high temperatures caused by climate change could severely limit the electricity generating capacity of power plants in Sokoto, Maiduguri, Bauchi, Potiskum, Kano, Zaria, Gusau, Kaduna, Gombe, Minna and Makurdi, unless they switch to renewable sources like wind and solar energy (Mejabi, D. J. J. and Odjugo, P. A. O. (2015) and Mejabi, D. J. J. and Odjugo, P. A. O. (2012). Furthermore, this situation is compounded by early cessation of rainfall as predicted for most parts of northeast, northwest and some north-central states in recent years where most of the 3

dams are found (Nnaji, C. E., Chukwu, J. O. and Moses, N., 2013). It is obvious that the river regimes of these dams will continue to affect the power sector, and quite a number– agriculture, water resource, transport (land and air), maritime, health, communication, and emergency response as a result of the dwindling river regime (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 2015). At present, power providers do not put into consideration impacts of climate change in their development plans, meaning that they could be overestimating their ability to meet future electricity needs. In view of the foregoing, Droughts and high temperatures caused by climate change could severely affect the electricity generating capacity of power plants in Nigeria. This development has the potential to result in low flows and reduced power generation at the Kainji and Kabba dams. It said that dams in the far northern part of the country might have difficulties getting enough flow of water due to the less rain expected(Nigeria Meteorological Agency, 2015). There were indications of low rainfall in Kainji and Jebba areas where the two generation plants are located, and Shiroro Generation Company (Genco) all in the same Niger State. NiMet said the development has the potential to result in low flows and reduced power generation by Kainji and Kabba dams. Figure 2a and 2b, shows average maximum temperature and total rainfall per month for northern Nigerian based stations. Thus, many Authors and Researchers with vested interest in Climate Change and variability has done little works in nexus to power sector in Nigeria, amongst these are: Tchotsoua, Moussa and Fotsing (2008) in their study on the socio-economic downstream impact of large dams: A case study from an evaluation of flooding risks in the Benue River Basin Downstream of the Lagdo Dam (Cameroon). From the analysis of the maximum daily rainfalls and the corresponding flooded surfaces, it follows that a height of 200 m can only be reached with exceptional rainfalls or the rupture of the dam. A Idachaba (2009) in his study shows the effect of Climate Change on waste disposal sites and how the bio-gas; Methane created naturally through anaerobic waste decomposition can be collected as a renewable energy source and used directly as medium or high natural British Thermal Unit (BTU) gas for industrial use or to fuel turbine driven generators of electricity. Enete and Alabi (2011) examined the influence of climate change on power generation using existing literatures. Result indicated that climate change undermine power and energy production by increasingly depleting renewable and non-renewable sources, creating resources scarcity as well as damage to infrastructure. Aizebeokhai (2011) assessed the potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources availability and sustainability in Nigeria using existing scientific literatures. His findings show decades of depletion of the resource imposed by human and climatic stresses particular in the fringes of northern Nigeria. The projected decrease in precipitation and increasing droughts in the Savannah and Sahel regions would lead to decrease in groundwater recharge and this will results to increasing desertification. Akinyemi, Ogundipe and Alege (2012) examined the impact of climate change on energy supply in Nigeria for the period 1971-2011 using the vector error correction procedure. We adopted the Johansen and Juselius, and Engle-Granger co-integration analysis to determine the rank of the series long run co-integration. The study found a positive relationship between climate change and energy supply, as well as no evidence of causal relationship between climate change and energy supply. Adelalu (2012) using climatic (temperature and rainfall) and hydrological data (river discharge) for the period of 49 years, an attempt was made to examine the response of river Benue discharge to climate change. The result shows great fluctuations of the elements about the mean. Both runoff and rainfall total has decreased but the rate of decrease of rainfall is about 14 times that of runoff. Monthly analysis of runoff in some years of the study revealed increase in runoff above the mean but this additional runoff do not add to water availability for use because they occur during the wet season and there are no specific storage to hold the water through to the dry season. Ajide (2013) assessed the physical impact of oil spillage using GIS 4

and Remote Sensing Technologies, an empirical evidence from Jesse town in Delta State, Nigeria. He gave the number of incident of oil spillages between the periods of 1976–1996 and barrels of oil lost to the ecosystem, the environmental consequences of oil pollution on the inhabitants of Delta State and Jesse community. Mejabi and Odjugo (2014) gave an overview of the impacts of Climate Change on Nigeria’s telecommunications industry in northern Nigeria and how Information and Communication Technology (ICT), can be used to monitor, adapt, create awareness and sensitization to mitigate against its negative impacts on the telecommunication using data collected from field work and questionnaire administered. Deductions shows that the Nigerian government past and present haven’t show much commitment to combat climate change debacle. It is based on these overviews and limitation of works on power that the paper aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on power sector in Northern Nigeria with the following sets of objectives: Objectives i. ii. iii.

To assess the challenges of Power Sector in Northern Nigeria. To examine the impact of climate change on power supply in Northern Nigeria. To appraise the emerging evidence of the manifestation of Climate Change on Electric power and how to adapt to its effects in Northern Nigeria.

THE STUDY AREA Nigeria is a geographical region of West Africa. It is confined within latitudes 4 ON-14 ON of the Equator and longitudes 33/40 E-150E of the Meridian (Time Atlas, 2015). It has an estimated landmass of 932, 768 Square kilometers, of which the land area consists of 910,768 square kilometers, while the balance of 13,000 square kilometers is water, with a total coastline of 853 kilometers (Time Atlas, 2015). It great length from north to south is 1040 kilometers and from the west to east over 1120 kilometers. Northern Nigeria a region in Nigeria and it is delimited by Cameroon on the east, Benin in the west, Niger Republic and Chad in the north and southern States in the south. It comprises of nineteen (19) States and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The major drainage areas in Northern Nigeria are the Niger-Benue basin, the Lake Chad basin, and the Gulf of Guinea basin. The Niger River, for which the country is named, and the Benue, its largest tributary rivers draining the area north of the Niger-Benue trough include the Sokoto, the Kaduna, the Gongola, and the rivers draining into Lake Chad (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017). Nigeria has an estimated population of 182,000,000 million inhabitants of which Northern Nigeria account for about 50% of the total (National Population Commission, 2016). The Sahel Climate is the predominant climate type in the northern part of Nigeria. Annual rainfall totals are lower compared to the southern and central part of Nigeria. Rainy season in the northern Nigeria last for only three to four months (June–September), the rest of the year is hot and dry with temperatures climbing as high as 40 °C. Montane climate is also found on highlands regions in Nigeria. Northern Nigeria is an ethnically and religiously diverse state. Northern Nigeria’s major soil zones conform to geographic location, loose sandy soils consisting of wind-borne deposits and riverine sands. The Hausa, Fulani, and Gbagyi people dominate much of the North Western and central parts of the Country. While the Hausa and Fulani are chiefly Muslims, other tribal groups are predominantly Christians (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017). Grains and legumes; such as sorghum, millet, cowpeas, and corn (maize) are the staple crops of the drier north. Rice is also an important domestic crop, while peanuts (groundnuts) and cotton are industrial crops of the north (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2017). On land surface of the region, are located and sited hydropower, thermal and solar electric 5

installations, Telecommunications and Information and Communication Technology Infrastructures and Super-structures. It was based on the facts that Bauchi, Benue, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Niger, Sokoto and Zamfara States were chosen as study areas out of the nineteen (19) States of Northern Nigeria. The color graduation shows the sequences/phases in which the study was carried out; Green [1], Pink [2] and Orange [3] fig. 2a.

Fig. 2a: Map of Study Area (Northern Nigeria). Source: Mejabi, 2015 modified from NASRDA Landsat Imagery.

Fig. 2b: Climate of Northern Nigeria. Source: Nigeria’s Climatic Map Modified in Mejabi (2015).

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METHODS AND MATERIALS The data required for this study are hydro-meteorological data spanning for a period of 30 to 50 years. The meteorological data include precipitation, evaporation, minimum and maximum temperature, while the hydrological data are the runoff and water level. The required meteorological data were obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja and meteorological unit of Kainji hydropower station. The hydrological data such as runoff and water level for River Niger at various gauge stations were obtained from the National Inland Waterways Agency (NIWA) in Lokoja, Kogi State and hydrological unit of Kainji hydropower station. While data on Oil/Gas station was obtained from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The temperature and rainfall data were correlated with the river discharge (annual runoff) using correlation analysis to show the degree of relationship. The runoff was further regressed with the climatic elements of rainfall and temperature using the linear regression prediction of future event in the basin. The Study Area and Oil/Gas Power Stations in Nigeria mapping were done using satellite imageries of Landsat SRTM of 30m resolution. While, Garmin 76 hand–held Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to ascertain the coordinates of refineries, pump stations, and booster stations. ArcMap Arc Info 10.1 software was used for mapping the study area. A reconnaissance survey was carried out by the authors, this involved performing surface observation and measurements of various properties of the features of the ground resolution cells that are being studied on the remotely sensed digital image. All the data were subjected to trend and fluctuation analysis using Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and Regression Analysis. Standardized anomaly index (SAI) was used to depict the fluctuation exhibited by the hydro-meteorological parameters. SAI was first used by Kraus (1977) to provide a synthesis of the average area behavior of precipitation at a specified time. The index was found to be effective for rainfall variability in the Niger basin area (Babatolu, J. S. (1998). SAI was used to test for the fluctuation of hydro-meteorological parameters in the study of climate change impact on water resources and adaptation strategies in the Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zone (SSEZ) of Nigeria (Odjugo, P. A. O. (2011). Y a1+ b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + -------------------- bnXn + ɛ …………………………….(1) Where: X1, X2,…,Xn = set of independent; Y = dependent variable; a1, b1, b2,…,bn = constant; ɛ = error term (negligible). Multiple regression analysis (MRA) in Microsoft Excel was used to assess the overall impact of meteorological parameters such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation rate on runoff for the selected hydro-meteorological stations. The locations considered are: Lokoja, Kainji, Baro, Idah and Shiroro gauge stations. Equation 1 was rewritten with Y representing runoff (m3/s) and X1, X2 and X3 representing temperature (oC), evaporation (mm) and precipitation (mm) respectively, while a1, b1, b2 and b3 are the parameter constants as presented in Equation 2 (Salami, A. W., Mohammed, A. A. & Okeola, O. G., 2014). Y a1+ b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3…………………………………………………………(2) RESULT AND DISCUSSION A multiple regression model was used to analyze runoff at Lokoja, Kainji Baro Idah and Shiroro. The multiple regression model for Lokoja indicates -535.83 coefficient of the mean temperature which implies that runoff will decrease by average of 535.83 m3/s per month for 1°C rise in temperature. The coefficient of evaporation is -437.22 showing that runoff will decrease on average by 437.22 m3/s per month for 1 mm rise in evaporation. The coefficient of precipitation is 7.95 implies that runoff will increase by 7.95 m3/s per month for 1 mm rise 7

precipitation. The model intercept is 23149.13 m3/s which indicated an estimated average runoff. The coefficient of determination (R2) reveals that 0.18 variation in runoff is contributed by temperature, precipitation and evaporation. The multiple regression model for Kainji shows -4.66. Table 1: Rainfall-Temperature Data Analysis for Hydro-stations in the Study Areas. Location

Minimum Temperature

Maximum Temperature

Evaporation

Precipitation

(oC)

(oC)

(mm)

(mm)

Yelwa

Y = 2E-07X – 0.0009

Y = 0.0001X – 0.2455

Y = 0.0023X – 4.6608

Y = 0.0028X – 45.301

Sokoto

Y = 0.0009X – 1.7686

Y = 0.0002X– 0.4892

Y = 0.0123X – 24.4

Y = 0.0281 – 55.697

Gusau

Y = 0.0002X – 0.3548

Y = 0.0001X – 0.2181

Y = 0.001X – 1.9534

Y = 0.0677X – 1.726

Ilorin

Y = 0.002X – 4.0473

Y = -7E-0.5X + 0.1352

Y = 0.0004X – 0.7535

Y = -0.1256X + 249.38

Minna

Y = 6E–0.5X – 0.117

Y = 0.0001X – 0.2772

Y = 0.0002X – 0.33

Y = 0.0123X – 24.465

Kainji

Y = 0.0062X - 12.37

Y = 0.0005X – 0.9851

Y = 0.0032X – 6.3027

Y = 0.1263X – 325.04

Lokoja

Y = 0.000X – 0.3091

Y = 4E-0.5X – 0.0857

Y = 0.0002X + 0.32878

Y = 0.00325X – 64.532

Source: Researchers Analysis (2014). Trends in Hydro-meteorological Parameters of the Study Areas in Northern Nigeria Minimum and Maximum Temperature The minimum temperature at Yelwa has a positive trend with negligible coefficient of determination (R2). Sokoto, Gusau, Ilorin, Minna, Lokoja and Kainji stations show positive trend with R2 of 0.70, 0.0.9, 0.07, 0.056, 0.018 and 0.54 respectively. The maximum temperature at Yelwa, Sokoto, Gusau, Minna, Lokoja and Kainji stations show positive trend with R2 of 0.020, 0.30, 0.1, 0.27, 0.01 and 0.05 respectively. The maximum temperature at Ilorin station shows a negative trend and R2 of 0.07. This is clear indication of upward trend in temperature in most of the stations enabling evapo-transpiration rate at the stations. Evaporation The evaporation at Yelwa, Sokoto, Gusau, Ilorin and Minna stations show a positive trend with R2 of 0.28, 0.15, 0.57, 0.15 and 0.019 respectively. The evaporation at Lokoja and Kainji stations reveal positive trend with R2 of 0.09 and 0.01 respectively. This means that there is high evaporation of water from these basins, which will invariably reduce the volume of water in the dams. This will indirectly affect power supply in northern Nigeria due to the inability of river regime to propel the turbines at the dam. Precipitation The precipitation at Yelwa, Sokoto, Gusau, Minna, Lokoja and Kainji stations reveal low positive trend with R2 of 0.005, 0.04, 0.05, 0.004, 0.005 and 0.03 respectively. Ilorin station has low negative trend with R2 of 0.035. These results shows close result to that of (Salami, Mohammed and Okeola, 2014). Low positive trend in most of the selected locations indicates reduction in precipitation and seasonal variation in quantity of water available in the Kainji Lake basin which subsequently affected hydropower generation at the Kainji hydropower station among other factors.

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Runoff The runoff at Lokoja, Baro, Idah and Kainji, stations show negative trend with R2 of 0.36, 0.40, 0.67, 0.39 and 0.24 respectively. Jideribode station shows a low positive trend with negligible R2 value. This implies that the variation in runoff contributed by temperature, precipitation and evaporation ranges between 0.22 and 0.45. This means these discharges if allowed to continue, it will reduce the volume of water in the basins to power the turbines in the dams. Table 2: Relationship between SAI of Hydrological Variables and Time. Runfoff (m3/s) Y = -91.024 X + 180719 Y = -6023.8 X + 1E + 07 Y = -441..04 X + 873883 Y = -27528 X + 5E + 07 Y= -158.43 X + 453219

Location Kainji Lokoja Baro Idah Shiroro

Y = SAI of Hydro-meteorological Variables and X = Time (Year). Source: Researchers’ Analysis (2016). Impact of Climate Change on River Niger and its Tributary. River Niger on which the largest dam- Kainji Dam in the country is built. This dam provides 3% of power supply from the national grid to some part of the country (Enete, I. C. and Alabi, M. O., 2011). Olomoda (2011) in his work indicated that since the past five decades, the Niger basin has been affected by series of climatic changes causing extreme low flows along the river. For example in June 1985 River Niger was completely dry at Niamey, Niger republic. This phenomenon was almost repeated in June 2002 when the flow recorded fell among the lowest in 50 years. The Niger basin theoretical area of about 2 million km2 has also been reduced to an active catchment area of about 1,500,000 km2 . Ojoye (2012) stated that study had shown that impact of climate change was noticed in River Niger when the annual yield of the River at Kainji reservoir had steadily decrease from 46 × 109 m3 in 1970 to 26 × 109 m3 at the peak of 1973 drought. Also there has been drastic reduction in electricity generation at Kainji hydropower station over the year and this may be due to shortage of water in the reservoir among other factors. It is imperative to assess the impact of climate variability on runoff in the Kainji Lake using statistical tools like standardized anomaly indices (SAIs) and regression analysis (Mejabi, D. J. J. and Odjugo, P. A. O., 2015). Two out of the three hydropower stations in Nigeria were built on the river namely: Kainji and Jebba hydropower stations. The third is Shiroro hydropower station that was built on river Kaduna which is also a tributary of River Niger. Climate change-poses a serious threat to the future of the power sector in Nigeria. The effect of climate change on water supply has started to severely hamper electricity generation from hydro sources. Extreme weather associated with climate change has affected the alreadyinadequate power infrastructure and disrupt electricity supply (Mejabi, D. J. J. and Odjugo, P. A. O., 2015). The report also stated the likely challenge of generating electricity due to less than normal rainfall prediction in many parts of the country this year. This may be aggravated by the prospects of early cessation of the rains, as well as shorter length of the season expected in the North. These may affect Kainji and Jabba dams resulting in low flows and reduced power generation.

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Impact of Climate Change on Thermal Power (Oil and Gas) Facilities in Northern Nigeria. Power plants use several methods to convert gas to electricity. One method is to burn the gas in a boiler to produce steam, which is then used by a steam turbine to generate electricity. At the Kaduna refinery, the burning of natural gas produces nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide and methane, a primary component of natural gas and a greenhouse gas, which is emitted into the air when these gases are not burned completely and similarly as a result of leaks and losses during transportation through vandalized pipelines and tankers that carry fuel from the refinery to the service points in the study area. Natural gas-fired boiler and combined cycle systems do require water for cooling purposes. When this water are discharge from the power plants from a lake to river, fish and other aquatic life been killed, affecting animals and people who depend on these aquatic resources. The impacts of Climate Change on thermal power in northern Nigeria is evidential as Oil/Gas sector experiences series of damages and flooding of both underground and subsurface (aerial) infrastructures of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation refinery in Kaduna and depots, pump stations and booster stations in selected study areas particularly in Jankasa-Kamazo and Zaria settlements (Kaduna), Hotoro Settlement (Kano), Gusau Settlement (Zamfara), Mr. Ali Settlement (Jos), Gombe settlement (Gombe) and Damboa settlemrnt (Maiduguri) by Rainstorm, corrosion or decaying of metallic and biodegradable electrical installations and materials, underground explosion of electrical components and connections, sagging of overhead and underground cables, dues to excessive solar radiations (Mejabi, D. J. J. and Odjugo, P. A. O., 2015). Furthermore, warmer climate may have reduced the efficiency of power production for many existing fossil fuel power plants in the study area, because these plants use water for cooling, the colder the water, and the more efficient the generator. Thus, higher air and water temperatures could reduce the efficiency with which these plants convert fuel into electricity. In the Jankasa-Kamazo settlements cases of people with respiratory infection diseases were recorded in the hospitals at the study area due to gas flaring leading to emission of Green Houses Gases (GHG) during the operations of the Kaduna refinery.

Fig. 3: Overlaid Map of NNPC Pipelines’ and ancillary. Source: Mejabi, 2015 GIS Analysis. 10

The Growing Consequences of Climate Change on Electricity Supply in Nigeria. •

Accelerating Sea Level Rise: presently, major electric facilities in the Nigeria, including power plants and sub-stations, are sited within and above four feet of local high tide. Global average sea level has increased eight inches since 1880, and is projected to rise up to an additional 6.6 feet over the course of this century, greatly increasing coastal flooding risks.

•

Flooding of Adjacent Lands: The wet season started normally in the March/April in the Southern Nigeria and in late May/June in the north. Excessive flooding was evident in most parts of the country between August and September, particularly, occurring along major rivers in Jigawa, Sokoto and Ogun, and coastal flooding in states such as Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa States. Communities along the Lagos/Ogun borders also suffered spillover effect on corrosion and damage of underground and aerial electric power installations and components from river flooding.

•

Increasing Wildfires: Wildfires can directly damage transmission poles and other electricity infrastructure particularly in Northern Nigeria, but the greatest risk comes from smoke and particulate matter, which can ionize the air, create an electrical pathway away from transmission lines, and shut down the lines. Climate Change affects multiple factors that increase wildfire risk; the average number of large wildfires in Nigeria rose between 1980s and 2012.

•

More Frequent and Intense Heat Waves: Climate Change is already bringing more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in Nigeria and most evident in Northern Nigeria. These periods of extreme heat decrease the efficiency of power plants during periods when electricity demand in Nigeria is highest, placing additional stresses on the electricity system.

•

Droughts and Reduced Water Supplies: The electricity sector is highly dependent on water for cooling, specifically in areas where thermal power stations is sited in Nigeria. Power production accounts for accounts for large share of all freshwater withdrawals in Nigeria. As temperatures continue to rise, droughts and reduced water supplies are likely to become the norm in Northern Nigeria, increasing the risk to the power sector.

•

Elevated Water Temperatures: Higher air temperatures warm the water in rivers and reservoirs used by power plants e.g. in Kainji Dam, Shiroro Dam, Gurara Dam etc, for their cooling needs. If the temperature of incoming water is too hot, or if the temperature of the discharge water is too high, power plants in Nigeria must dial back production or shut down temporarily, as has occurred at numerous thermal power plants over the past decade.

•

Health Problems: the indirect impact on health sector will be spread of diseases like upper respiratory infection, liver and lung diseases, skin diseases and even cancer. Also, The NiMet forecast malaria prevalence across the country in 2015, weather and climate will play significant role in the spread of diseases such as malaria in Nigeria this year. The breeding process and bites of mosquito are largely influenced by humidity and temperature. The higher the temperature and humidity, the more rapid the life cycles and bites of the mosquitoes. The end result will be pressure on the short and fluctuating electricity required for the operation of health-care facilities. 11

Fig. 3: Climate Impacts on Power System. Source: Adopted from Union of Concern Scientist in Mejabi and Odjugo (2014).

The Projected Effects of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in Nigeria The impacts of climate change on supply and demand will vary greatly by regions or countries (Odjugo, P. A. O., 2011). However, in Nigeria, a 2-2.2°C warming by 2050 will increase dry season air-conditioning demand by 3-6% and electricity demand by 4%. At the same time, dry season decreases in stream flow will reduce hydropower generation during that season (Enete, I. C. and Alabi, M. O., 2011). Model studies, assuming a 3-5°C increase in temperature by 2055, suggest that electricity demand and fuel costs will increase significantly because of climate change (Linder, K.P., 1990). Annual electricity energy demands will increase slightly by 4-6% by the year 2055. As a result of climate change, peak national demand will increase 16-23% above base case values, that is, above the increased demand due largely to population growth without climate change. The costs of increasing electrical capacity to meet the increased demand due to climate change will be large. By 2055, the annual costs for capital, fuel and climate-induced modifications in utility operations will be 7-15% greater than costs without climate change. An increase in electrical demand (much of it generated by fossil-fuel combustion) would make policies that limit GHG emissions more difficult to achieve. And with increased demand, the need to import power could affect the balance of payments of Nigeria’s foreign trade. Following its effect on runoff and stream flows, climate change will also affect hydroelectricity power generation. Hydropower supplies 2.3% of the world’s total energy and 3% of Nigeria’s electricity. It was on record that the African drought of 1991 -1992 led to a significant decrease in hydropower (Enete, I. C. and Alabi, M. O., 2011). Electric power supply in Nigeria is expected to drop sharply due to the predicted rainfall forecast in 2016.

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RECOMMENDATIONS The need to restructure the existing order in the Nigerian power sector is very critical to this research. The import of the paper therefore is to proffer solutions to the increasing level of climate change effect on power in Nigeria. The researcher therefore proposes the following policy recommendations as a way of salvaging the ailing power sector in Nigeria as follows: 1. Involving the Private Sector: Many believe that independent power producers (IPPs) hold the key to improved power generation in Nigeria. Just like in the way Oando, a Nigerian energy firm, built a 14-kilometre transmission pipeline from its grid to the 12.5 MW platform facilities located at the Lagos Water Works Corporation. 2.

Adequate Funding: Central Bank Facility; A new plan for funding the power sector and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) by the Nigeria apex bank; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) might bring some real change to the country's electricity supply situation and reduction on the effects of Climate Change on the sector.

3. Energy Mix: Adoption of necessary options order than over-reliance on government for provision, distribution and distribution of power supply in Nigeria e.g. oil and gas sources could help solve the prevailing pressures on the already tensed Kainji and Shiroro dams. 4. Involvement of COREN as Stakeholder: the Council for the Regulation of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN) is a statutory organ of government and being the regulatory body for the engineering family in Nigeria, should be given the technical capacity in the indigenous generation and distribution of power and regulation of electrical and electronics engineering in all ramification. 5. Power Sharing with Neighbouring Countries: this solution might not be received with both hands by many Nigerians, but it is expedient that Federal Government reduce power distribution from the National Grid to neighbouring countries, particularly Niger Republic. This is because Niger is now an Oil Producing Country and has enough thermal energy reserves to cater for its power needs. 6. Enforced Waste Disposal Acts: Relevant Municipal regulations must be in place to support collection recycling, transportation, disposal and operation. Laws must be enforced to ensure that waste is transported to regulated waste disposal areas. Environmental pollution in the communities must be controlled. No one is immune from keeping these laws. 7. Continuous Launching National Wide Tree-planting and Forestation Campaign. Since 1990, tremendous achievement has been made in tree-planting and a forestation along with the implementation of key forest ecological projects in Nigeria (Enete, I. C. and Alabi, M. O., 2011). This the incumbent and future governments should do. 8. The government of should attached more importance to support scientific studies and researches on climate change. It should capacity and capability to continue to implement a number of key research projects in some Nigeria Universities such as it has done on climate change programme with FUT Minna, Ahmadu Bello University, University of Ibadan, University of Lagos, University of Maiduguri, and University of Sokoto etc. 9. Nigerian government should maintain cordial relationship with the countries within the catchment area if the River Niger lies, so that the power generation at the Kainji Hydropower Station will be sustained. Also, the Nigerian government should try to dredge the silted Kainji reservoir and adjoining reservoirs-Shiriro, Gurara.

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CONCLUSION This study examines how climate change influences power and energy generation in general, with emphasis on Northern Nigeria. The paper has also shown clearly that infrastructure is critical to the economic growth and development of any country. Thus, the reviewed literatures and analysis reached in the paper, shows that power supply is a major factor that seriously determines industrial and economic development in Nigeria. Some of the problems confronting power generation in the study areas based on the research findings include; poor maintenance planning, inadequate funding, climate change and variability, environmental hazards, lack of energy mix, vandalisation of generation facilities, high population, poverty, poor inventory management, terrorist’s insurgence etc. The study clearly shows that industries can be successful in optimizing resources, minimizing costs and maximizing profits through innovation, accessibility, qualitative products and swift service delivering, if there is consistent power supply. It is on the note, that Federal Government and independent power providers (IPP) should intensify efforts towards the provision of uninterrupted power supply and to reduce power by-products that contributes to Climate Change effects through investment in the power sector that could help reduce the gap that may be created by effects of climate change on power generation in areas where there is still untapped potential. REFERENCES: Abarshi, R. A. and Gakure, R. W. (2014). The Role of Power Supply in the Development and Sustaining ICT Based Businesses in Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence of Northern Nigeria. An International Journal of advanced Studies in Engineering and Scientific Inventions, Vol. 2, No. 1, January 2014, pp. 1-10, ISSN Print: 2354-4171, Online: 23454-418X. Adelalu, T. G. (2012). Climate Variability and River Benue Discharge in Jimeta, Yola Area, Nigeria. Hydrology for Disaster Management Special Publication of the Nigerian Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280131578.

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