Outline. ⢠Background. ⢠Salient characteristics of Indian agriculture. ⢠Socio-economic characteristics ... Chhattisgarh. 40.9. Delhi. 14.7. Gujarat. 16.8. Haryana.
Indian Food Security and Climate Change Agriculture Future Deepak Shah*, P K Joshi, Gerald C Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz and Amanda Palazzo * Gokhle Institute of Political Economy International Food Policy Research Institute
Outline • Background • Salient characteristics of Indian agriculture • Socio-economic characteristics • Bio-physical characteristics
• • • •
Scenarios for adaptation Agricultural vulnerable scenario Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Conclusions and the way forward
Background • Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change • Higher temperatures may reduce yields • Encourage weed and pests proliferation • Greater variation in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-term crop failure and long-run production decline
• Adversely affect availability and prices of food commodities domestically and at international markets • Negative impact on income from agricultural production both on the farm and country level
Background - Key challenges • Mounting population growth • Population has reached 1.2 billion
Background - Key challenges • Mounting population growth • Population has reached 1.2 billion • Population in India will continue to grow even as the •
population in China plateaus India will pass China as most populous country by 2030 Population (billion)
Share of World Population
Background - Key challenges • Mounting population growth • Widespread poverty • More than 300 million people; 1/4th of the world’s poor
Population living in poverty
Source: IFPRI estimates from GRUMP for 2000.(Center for International Earth Science Information Network Columbia University 2004)
Poverty in India over time
Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round
States Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal All India
2004-05 (%) 15.8 19.7 41.4 40.9 14.7 16.8 14.0 10.0 5.4 40.3 25.0 15.0 38.3 30.7 46.4 8.4 22.1 22.5 32.8 39.6 24.7 27.5
Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round
Background - Key challenges • • • •
Mounting population growth Widespread poverty Inadequate physical and social infrastructure Large scale rural-urban migration
• Limited non-agricultural employment opportunities
• • • • •
Insufficient access to quality education Gradual depletion and degradation of natural resources Diversion of land and water to non-agriculture uses Market fluctuation and high food inflation Changing agricultural trade regime
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy • Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy • Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling • Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and contributes around 18% of GDP Year
India
1997 2000 2005 2006
GDP per capita (US$) 428 448 713 791
2007
981
China % share of GDP per % share of agriculture in capita (US$) agriculture in GDP GDP 24.7 810 17.5 21.7 956 14.9 16.7 1766 15.2 17.4 2137 13.1 18.0
2649
11.0
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy • Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling • Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and contributes around 18% of GDP • Agriculture accounts for 65-70 percent of rural incomes • Growth in the agricultural sector has been sluggish Year
Total Pop.
Annual Growth Rate (%)
Rural Pop.
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
361.1 439.2 548.2 683.3 846.4 1028.7
1.25 1.96 2.22 2.20 2.14 1.95
298.6 360.3 439.0 523.9 628.9 742.6
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares Area
Value
Consumption FAOSTAT
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares Area
Value
• Key Food Grains: • Rice Consumption FAOSTAT
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares Area
Value
• Key Food Grains: • Rice • Wheat Consumption FAOSTAT
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares Area
Value
• Key Food Grains: • Rice • Wheat
• Vegetables and Pulses
Consumption FAOSTAT
Climate Change in India • India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones • 6 Agro-ecological zones • 15 Agro-climatic zones: • Western Himalayas • Arid • Eastern Himalayas • Semi-arid • Lower Gangetic Plains • Dry-sub humid • Middle Gangetic Plains • Moist sub humid • Upper Gangetic Plains • Humid • Trans Gangetic Plains • Eastern Plateau and Hill Region • Per humid • Central Plateau and Hill Region • Western Plateau and Hill Region • Southern Plateau and Hill Region • East Coast Plains and Hill Region • West Coast Plains and Ghat Region • Gujarat Plains and Ghat Region • Western Dry Region • Island Region
Climate Change in India • India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones • Climate change is expected to: • Increase average temperatures • Change precipitation patterns • Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
Climate Change in India • India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones • Climate change is expected to: • Increase average temperatures • Change precipitation patterns • Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to • Geography • Available water resources
Changes in annual precipitation between 2000-2050 Change in precip (mm)
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
MIROC3.2
Changes in maximum temperature 2000-50 Change in annual maximum temperature
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
MIROC3.2
Climate Change in India • India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones • Climate change is expected to: • Increase average temperatures • Change precipitation patterns • Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to • Geography • Available water resources
• These change will have varying effects on food grain producing regions
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains - Wheat Crops
Irrigated Wheat
Rainfed Wheat
Baseline area lost
Parts of Karnataka and AP
Parts of Karnataka
Yield lost > 25 %
Parts of Karnataka and AP
Parts of Uttarakhand
Yield lost 525 %
Yield gain 525 %
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
Parts of In parts of 10 Bihar, Orissa States and West Bengal (WB)
Parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka
Some area of J&K
In parts of 8 States
Parts of MP, Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab, HP
State-wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
-
IMPACT Results for Wheat Yield
Production
Area
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains - Rice Crops
Baseline area lost
Yield lost > 25 %
Irrigated Rice
-
WB, parts of Haryana
Rainfed Rice
Some parts of MP
-
Yield lost 525 %
Yield gain 525 %
In parts of 14 Parts of UP States and Haryana
In parts of 8 States
Most parts of Maharashtra, Parts of Karnataka, Orissa, Bihar
State-wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
-
-
Parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka
Uttarakhand, HP, Punjab, some border areas of UP, MP and Karnataka
IMPACT Results for Rice Yield Production
Area
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains - Maize Crops
Irrigated Maize
Baseline area lost
-
Parts of Rajasthan, Rainfed Maize Maharashtra and Karnataka
Yield lost > 25 %
Yield lost 525 %
Yield gain 525 %
Parts of UP, Some area of In parts of 10 and Haryana, Chhattisgarh States and Karnataka
-
In parts of 8 States
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
-
-
Parts of Parts of Parts of Maharashtra, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, MP Karnataka, AP, UP and Punjab and TN
State-wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
IMPACT Results for Maize Yield
Production
Area
Pulse Production in India • Pulses are an important source of protein and nutrition • India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses • 25 percent of global production • 27 percent of consumption • 34 percent of food use
• India is also the world’s top importer of pulses • 11 percent of world imports (1995-2001) • Imports account for only 6 percent of domestic consumption
• Indian Government has focused attention on increasing pulse production
IMPACT Results for Chickpeas Yield Production
Area
IMPACT Commodity Price Summary
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Chickpeas
IMPACT Net Trade Summary
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Chickpeas
IMPACT Food Security Scenario Outcomes
Malnourished Children (thousands)
Per capita food availability (kcal/person)
Strategies to reduce GHG emissions • Improved land management • Conservation agriculture, etc
• • • •
Agro-forestry Degraded crop and pasture area rehabilitation Improvement to nutrition and genetics of ruminant livestock Improved storage and capture technologies for manure conversion into biogas
GHG emissions by sector
Adaptation strategies • Change varieties or crop species and planting dates, and • • • • •
promote crop diversification Reduce water-use inefficiency Preserve and enhance plant & animal genetic resources Improve crop & residue management Develop watersheds in rainfed areas Promote agri-insurance to mitigate income risks
Conclusions • Climate change will make attaining food security through • • • •
2050 a challenge Agriculture production is likely to increase under demographic and socioeconomic pressure Climate change will reduce yields in many regions by 5-25% Climate change would have little impact on number of malnourished children Technological options are available for climate change mitigation and adaptation; need is to promote their adoption
