lecture - University of Vermont

Asides

Asides on Curious and Interesting Things Complex Networks CSYS/MATH 303, Spring, 2011

Words People Probability Random

Prof. Peter Dodds Department of Mathematics & Statistics Center for Complex Systems Vermont Advanced Computing Center University of Vermont

Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License.

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Outline

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People

People

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Words

Probability

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Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 1

Frequency (log)

Frequency Frequency Median frequency (log) Frequency Median frequency (% of peak value) Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 14, 2011

RESEARCH ARTICLE they were first invented (1800–1840, 1840–1880, and 1880–1920) (7). We tracked the frequency of each invention in the nth year after it was invented as compared to its maximum value and plotted the median of these rescaled trajectories for each cohort. The inventions from the earliest cohort (1800–1840) took over 66 years from invention

contrast, “1973” declined to half its peak by x10-5 1983, a lag of only 10 years. We are forgetting our past faster with each passing year (Fig. 3A). 5 We were curious whether our increasing tendency to forget the old was accompanied by 0more rapid assimilation of the new (21). We divided a list of 147 inventions into time-resolved cohorts based on the 40-year interval in which

F

dian frequency

Frequency (log)

E (gray lines; median, thick dark gray line). Five examples are highlighted. 1871 Half life : 73

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:4

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phase (73 years, red line). Inset: The doubling time and half-life over time. (F) The median trajectory of the 25 most famous personalities born between 1800 and 1920 in various careers. me

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F 3. Cultural turnover is accelerating. (A) We forget: frequency of “1883” Fig. D “1910” (green), and “1950” (red). Inset: We forget faster. The half-life (blue), of the curves (gray dots) is getting shorter (gray line: moving average). (B) Cultural adoption is quicker. Median trajectory for three cohorts of inventions from three different time periods (1800–1840, blue; 1840–1880, green; 1880–1920, red). Inset: The telephone (green; date of invention, green arrow) and radio (blue; date of invention, blue arrow). (C) Fame of various personalities born between 1920 and 1930. (D) Frequency of the 50 most famous people born in

(E) The median trajectory of the 1865 cohort is characterized by four http://www.culturomics.org/ () 14 JANUARY 2011 VOL 331 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org parameters: (i) initial age of celebrity (34 years old, tick mark); (ii) doubling time of the subsequent rise to fame (4 years, blue line); (iii) age of peak celebrity Google ngram viewer (70 years after birth,Books tick mark), and (iv) half-life of the post-peak forgetting ()

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Half life

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SCIENCE

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Words People F Median frequency Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 14, 2011

Year of invention

blin

E DB

Dou

Frequency

天安

Frequency Median frequency

Frequency Frequency (log)

“Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books” by Michel et al., Science, 2011 [1]

n frequency (log)

1883” alf-life ultural m three –1920, radio s born born in

Frequency

Culturomics:

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Median frequenc (% of peak value

ed to English (blue). (B) n of Leon Trotsky (blue), noviev (green), and Lev enter a regime marked by slower forgetting: (red) in Russian texts, Collective memory has both a short-term and a worthy events indicated: long-term component. ssassination (blue arrow), there have been changes. The amplitude and KamenevButexecuted of the plots is rising every year: Precise dates are ), the Great Purge (red increasingly common. There is also a greater foand perestroika (gray arcus1989 on the present. For instance, “1880” declined he 1976 and Tiananto half peak re incidents bothitsled to value in 1912, a lag of 32 years. In iscussion in English texts wn on the right). Response 89 incidentAis largely abnese texts (blue, D scale shown C , suggesting government . (D) While the Hollywere blacklisted (red from U.S. movie studios, declined (median: thick None of them were credfilm until 1960’s (aptly odus. (E) Artists and writous disciplines were supy the Nazi regime (red n contrast, the Nazis themck red line) exhibited a me peak during the war Distribution of suppreses for both English (blue) n (red) for the F period from E C 45. Three victims of Nazi n are highlighted at left ws). Inset: Calculation of ession index for “Henri

Probability Random Videos Good science References

1871 (gray lines; median, thick dark gray line). Five exa (E) The median trajectory of the 1865 cohort is parameters: (i) initial age of celebrity (34 years old, tic time of the subsequent rise to fame (4 years, blue line); (ii (70 years after birth, tick mark), and (iv) half-life of th phase (73 years, red line). Inset: The doubling time a (F) The median trajectory of the 25 most famous perso 1800 and 1920 in various careers. VOL 331

14 JANUARY 2011

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Selflessness

Words People Probability

Radiolab Podcast: “An Equation for Good” ()

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Natural selection,

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the ‘mystery of altrusim’,

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George Price,

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madness.

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The Invention of Money

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“This American Life” Podcast on money and belief ()

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(1) Brazil and (2) the Fed...

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Dynamic networks: Server security

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Serving one html page with an image:

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Map of system calls made by a Linux server running Apache and Windows server running IIS. Which is which?

Taken from http://www.visualcomplexity.com ()

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Homo probabilisticus?

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The set up: I

A parent has two children.


Simple probability question: I

What is the probability that both children are boys?

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1/4...

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The next set up:

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We know one of them is a boy.

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The next set up:

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1/3...

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One more set up:

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We know one of them is a boy born on a Tuesday.

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?

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We know one of them is a boy born on December 31.

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Prediction:

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Words People Probability Random Videos Good science References

http://xkcd.com/605/ ()

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Prediction:

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http://xkcd.com/605/ () By the third trimester, there will be hundreds of babies inside you... 11 of 15

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What’s this?

Words

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600 400 200 0 −3000 −2000 −1000

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Mimicry—the lying lyrebird

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Whimsical but great example of real science: “How Cats Lap: Water Uptake by Felis catus” () Reis et al., Science, 2010.

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Amusing interview here () 14 of 15

Universal numbers

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Accidents of evolution give us 5 + 5 = 10 fingers and hence base 10.


We could be happy about 6, 8, or 12.

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Universal numbers

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Accidents of evolution give us 5 + 5 = 10 fingers and hence base 10.


We could be happy about 6, 8, or 12.

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Beep.

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Great moments in Universality

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Phyllotaxis Add pictures

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Richard Wiseman’s research:

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http://www.quirkology.com ()

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Letter writing exercise...

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Richard Wiseman’s research:

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http://www.quirkology.com ()

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Letter writing exercise...

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Quirkology People who draw letters so others can read them tend to: I

be high ‘self-monitors’

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be concerned with how others see them

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adapt better to social situations

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skilled at altering how others see them

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be more adept at lying...

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People how draw letters so they can read them tend to: I

be low ‘self-monitors’

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follow their inner values

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remain the same across social settings

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be less adept at lying... 19 of 15



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Quirkology

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And those who convince themselves they drew their letters the opposite way to what they really did. . .


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Quirkology

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And those who convince themselves they drew their letters the opposite way to what they really did. . .


are good at deceiving themselves.

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References I

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[1] J.-B. Michel, Y. K. Shen, A. P. Aiden, A. Veres, M. K. Gray, The Google Books Team, J. P. Pickett, D. Hoiberg, D. Clancy, P. Norvig, J. Orwant, S. Pinker, M. A. Nowak, and E. L. Aiden. Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books. Science Magazine, 331:176–182, 2011. pdf ()


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