Sep 28, 2010 ... Structure of class. Summarize the key pros and cons of each approach to
measuring democracy: 1. Freedom House. 2. Polity IV. 3. Przeworski ...
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Structure of class Summarize the key pros and cons of each approach to measuring democracy: 1.
Freedom House
2.
Polity IV
3.
Przeworski et al
II. Prepare for the lab sessions/assignment 1
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Required Reading 1.
Freedom House 'Freedom in the World’ (under Publications). Read especially ‘Essays’, ‘Tables and Charts’ and ‘Methodology’. (latest year available)
2.
Haerpfer et al Democratization Chapter 3 pp24‐40
3.
Elkins, Zachary. 2000. ‘Gradations of Democracy? Empirical tests of alternative conceptualizations’ American Journal Of Political Science 44 (2): 293‐300.
4.
Collier, David and Robert Adcock. 1999. ‘Democracy and dichotomies: A pragmatic approach to choices about concepts.’ Annual Review of Political Science 1: 537‐565.
5.
Pippa Norris. 2008. Driving Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chapter 3 pp54‐78.
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Practical issues
You are asked by the African Union to compare and assess the state of democratic governance in the region during the last decade. Which states are doing well? Which are falling back? How would you conceptualize and define democratic governance? What criteria would you use to evaluate indices? How would you measure the contemporary state of democratic governance?
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Liberal Democracy Robert Dahl 1956. A Preface to Democratic Theory Modern democratic states can be understood in practice as polyarchies Two concepts are important: Contestation and participation ‘Polyarchies’ can be identified by the presence of certain key political institutions:
1) elected officials; 2) free and fair elections; 3) inclusive suffrage; 4) the right to run for office; 5) freedom of expression; 6) alternative information; and 7) associational autonomy 9/28/2010
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Dahl's Conceptual Logic Liberal Democracy Contestation Right to form parties Associational autonomy 9/28/2010
Participation
Freedom of the press
Right to vote
Fairness of election
Extent of suffrage www.pippanorris.com
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Freedom House Mission Statement Freedom House is an independent nongovernmental organization that supports the expansion of freedom in the world. Freedom is possible only in democratic political systems in which the governments are accountable to their own people; the rule of law prevails; and freedoms of expression, association, and belief, as well as respect for the rights of minorities and women, are guaranteed. Freedom ultimately depends on the actions of committed and courageous men and women. We support nonviolent civic initiatives in societies where freedom is denied or under threat and we stand in opposition to ideas and forces that challenge the right of all people to be free. Freedom House functions as a catalyst for freedom, democracy and the rule of law through its analysis, advocacy and action. Founded 1942 in NY, based in Washington DC
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Freedom House Measure
Annual Index since 1972
Political Rights and Civil Liberties
Scale from 1 (most free) to 7 (least free).
Nations worldwide classified as… Free (1 to 2.5) (established democracies) Partly free (3 to 5.5) (consolidating democracies) Not free (5.5 to 7) (non‐democracies)
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F.H. Checklist of Political Rights 1. Is the head of government or other chief national authority elected through free and fair elections? 2. Are the national legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections? 3. Are the electoral laws and framework fair? 4. Do the people have the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive political groupings of their choice, and is the system open to the rise and fall of these competing parties or groupings? 5. Is there a significant opposition vote and a realistic possibility for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections? 6. Are the people’s political choices free from domination by the military, foreign powers, totalitarian parties, religious hierarchies, economic oligarchies, or any other powerful group? 7. Do cultural, ethnic, religious, or other minority groups have full political rights and electoral opportunities? 8. Do the freely elected head of government and national legislative representatives determine the policies of the government? 9. Is the government free from pervasive corruption? 10. Is the government accountable to the electorate between elections, and does it operate with openness and transparency?
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F.H. Checklist of Civil Liberties 1. Are there free and independent media and other forms of cultural expression? 2. Are religious institutions and communities free to practice their faith and express themselves in public and private? 3. Is there academic freedom and is the educational system free of extensive political indoctrination? 4. Is there open and free private discussion? 5. Is there freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion? 6. Is there freedom for nongovernmental organizations? (Note: This includes civic organizations, interest groups, foundations, etc.) 7. Are there free trade unions and peasant organizations or equivalents, and is there effective collective bargaining? Are there free professional and other private organizations? 8. Is there an independent judiciary? 9. Does the rule of law prevail in civil and criminal matters? Are police under direct civilian control? 10. Is there protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, or torture, whether by groups that support or oppose the system? Is there freedom from war and insurgencies? 11. Do laws, policies, and practices guarantee equal treatment of various segments of the population? 12. Does the state control travel or choice of residence, employment, or institution of higher education? 13. Do citizens have the right to own property and establish private businesses? Is private business activity unduly influenced by government officials, the security forces, political parties/organizations, or organized crime? 14. Are there personal social freedoms, including gender equality, choice of marriage partners, and size of family? 15. Is there equality of opportunity and the absence of economic exploitation?
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Trends in democracy, FH Freedom House categories
90
Free Partly free Not free
80
Count
70
60
50
40
30
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 Year
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Source: Freedom around the World www.freedomhouse.org www.pippanorris.com
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Correlates with other indicators Freedom House 7-pt Rating (reversed) Vanhanen Index of Democratization
Polity Combined 20-pt score
Correlation Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
N
3006
Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N
Cheibub Type of Regime
Correlation Sig. (2-tailed)
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.730(**)
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.904(**) .000 4382 .826(**) .000 14 5076
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Advantages of FH Measure? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Allows global comparison of nation states and independent territories Time‐series analysis: 1972‐date Quantifiable yardstick of political development Continuous measure not a simple dichotomy Commonly used in research, so facilitates replicability across different studies In practice the scale is strongly correlated with other common measures of democratization
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Disadvantages of FH Measure? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
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Reliability/subjectivity of evaluations? Indicators or evaluations reflect US/Western values? Consistency of evaluations across time and place? Limitations of information sources in some states ‘Floor’ and ‘ceiling’ effects: compressed scale? Excludes economic dimension (?) Excludes direct democracy Single indicator is less useful for policy evaluation
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Measurement: Polity IV
Monty G. Marshall, and Keith Jaggers. 2006. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800‐2006: Dataset Users’ Manual. Maryland: University of Maryland. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/polity/
Long time‐series (1800‐2006) annual observations
Academic standard especially in IR
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Polity IV Concepts
Democracy reflects three essential elements:
The presence of institutions and procedures through which citizens can express preferences about alternative policies and leaders;
The existence of institutionalized constraints on the power of the executive; and
The guarantee of civil liberties to all citizens (although not actually measured).
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Polity IV measurement
The dataset constructs a ten‐point democracy scale by coding The competitiveness of political participation (1‐3), The competitiveness of executive recruitment (1‐2), The openness of executive recruitment (1), and The constraints on the chief executive (1‐4). Autocracy is measured by negative versions of the same indices. The two scales are combined into a single democracy‐autocracy score varying from ‐10 to +10.
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Polity IV classification
The existence or absence of institutional features of the nation state. Competitive executive recruitment is measured by leadership selection through popular elections contested by two or more parties or candidates. The openness of recruitment for the chief executive is measured by the opportunity for all citizens to have the opportunity to attain the position through a regularized process, excluding hereditary succession, forceful seizure of power, or military coups. By contrast, autocracies are seen as regimes which restrict or suppress competitive political participation, in which the chief executive is chosen from within the political elite, and, once in office, leaders face few institutional constraints on their power.
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Polity IV
Figure 3.4: Trends in Polity IV measure of Constitutional Democracy, 1800-2000 4
Mean Polity Combined 20-pt score
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1895 1890 1885 1880 1875 1870 1865 1860 1855 1850 1845 1840 1835 1830 1825 1820 1815 1810 1805 1800
Year Source: Monty Marshall and Keith Jaggers. 2003. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2003. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/; 9/28/2010
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3.Electoral democracy
Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, socialism and democracy Procedural minimalist definition "The democratic method is that institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the people's vote“ Multiparty elections at regular intervals Citizens select leaders Pros and cons of this notion? How would you measure it?
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Measured by Przworski/Cheibub
Adam Przeworski et al Democracy and development (CUP 2000) Jose Cheibub Presidentialism, Parliamentarism and Democracy (CUP 2007) Minimalist
Dichotomous classification democratic v. autocratic regime, not a continuous scale Criteria Contestation
Regimes that allow some regularized competition among conflicting visions and interests Regimes in which some values or interests enjoy a monopoly buttressed by threat or the actual use of force
Operationalization
“Democracy is a regime in which government offices are filled by contested elections.” p19
“Democracy is a system in which incumbents lose elections and leave office when the rules dictate.” p54.
All other regimes are not democratic.
Rules 1.
Chief executive must be elected directly or indirectly
2.
The lower house of the legislature must be elected
3.
There must be more than one party
4.
(If pass above) and if incumbents subsequently held, but never lost elections, regimes are authoritarian.
Cases of Singapore, Botswana, Japan, Kenya, Mexico??
Contestation rules:
Ex‐ante uncertainty (probability that at least one member of incumbent coalition will lose)
Ex‐post irreversibility (whoever wins election will be allowed to assume office)
Repeatability (temporary outcomes)
Minimalist exclusions
No social or economic aspects included
No measure of accountability, responsibility, responsiveness or representation
No measure of freedom, liberties or human rights
No measure of participation eg franchise
No reference to civil‐military relations • Advantages and disadvantages of this approach?
Figure 3.1: Trends in Cheibub and Gandhi’s classification of regime types, 1945-2002
Cheibub Type of Regime
120
Democracy Dictatorship
100
Count
80
60
40
20
2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 1946
Year Source: José Cheibub and Jennifer Gandhi. 2004. ’A six-fold measure of democracies and dictatorships.’ Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science 9/28/2010 www.pippanorris.com Association.
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Key questions? How would you assess the strengths and weaknesses of the normative concepts of electoral democracy, liberal democracy, deliberative democracy and good governance? Which of these concepts would you use to measure the quality of governance in your home region, for example, working in a UN agency, a national NGO, as a journalist, as an official for a bilateral donor, or as an academic analyst? How would you justify your choice of concepts and measures to a diplomatic official from, say, ASEAN, the African Union, or the UN?
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Pros and cons?
Validity? Reflects basic commonsense notions of democracy Excludes too much? No notion of freedom of speech or assembly, civil liberties, political rights, human rights, common good, regime structure, quality of governance, policy outputs?
Reliability? Institutional criteria (elections) can be observed and verified Are there multiparty competitive elections for national office? Yet what counts as a genuine ‘competitive struggle’? Electoral autocracy?
Potential measurement error through misclassification
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Next class
Governance Jan Teorell guest lecture Measuring bureaucratic governance
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PREPARATION FOR LAB SESSION AND ASSIGNMENT #1
Download copies of:
(i) An empty report template in Word 2010 which you may want to edit for your first assignment; (ii) A few examples (A, B and C) of student reports (defined slightly differently) from previous years; and (iii) Guides to using Stata and SPSS with the QoG datasets. (iv) An Excel spreadsheet lists all the variables in the QoG codebook in thematic order. (v) Look online at the QoG website and download the Codebook Read these materials prior to the first lab sessions. (vi) The list of lab participants signed up for each session is available online. 9/28/2010
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www.qog.pol.gu.se/
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