natural hazards and vulnerability to natural disasters

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NATURAL HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF SERBIA 1

Novković Ivan1, Dragićević Slavoljub1, Manić Emilija2 Geografski fakultet Univerzitet u Beogradu,Studentski trg III/3, 11000 Beograd, Srbija, [email protected] 2 Ekonomski fakultet Univerzitet u Beogradu,Kamenička 6, 11000 Beograd, Srbija, [email protected] ,

In the attempt to adapt natural conditions to his own needs and to provide a safer and more comfortable life, a man greatly changed the character and intensity of the natural processes. In that way, a serious degradation of natural conditions have been done and the nature response to such changes through appearances of natural hazards. Natural hazards are phenomena of natural systems stability disruption caused by natural processes, but lately considerably modified by anthropogenic influences. They occur suddenly, either independently of each other or interconnected (for example earthquake-tsunami). Their environmental impact is so big that instead of term “natural hazards”, the term “environmental hazards” is used increasingly. If they inflict enormous damage to the society, or to populated areas, natural disasters become catastrophes. In the past, all major natural disasters are interpreted as the divine punishment for immoral behavior of the human population and they were accepted as an inevitable event. Exceptionally, as in the case of frequently flooded land, communities made efforts to avoid disasters. Later, the attempts were made in order to control the immediate causes (the first river dams and levees were constructed in the Middle East over 4,000 years ago and first attempts to defend buildings against earthquakes date from 2,000 years ago). The growth of science and engineering over the following centuries produced increasingly effective structural responses. By the end of the nineteenth century new measures could be deployed against certain hazards (e.g. forecasting). But there was still little understanding of the interactions between hazards and human population. Today while geologists, meteorologists, hydrologists and civil engineers predict extreme natural events and construct defensive control instruments, geographers and others scientists explore a wider program of loss mitigation through human adjustments ( such as disaster aid and better land planning)1. The following data confirm additionally how important these researches are: in the past 1,000 years, about 15 million people have died as a result of at least 100,000 natural disasters2, and about 80 per cent of the deadliest disasters in history occurred as a result of just four hazard types – earthquake, tropical cyclone, flood and drought. All natural disasters, irrespective of the fundamental differences, have some common features, as follows3:  spatial determination (they occur in a particular place and their consequences are manifested on a greater or lesser area);  time determination (can last from a few seconds or minutes to a few days or months);  certain frequency (can repeat periodically);  produce consequences (depending on the severity, frequency and duration of the disaster). Natural disasters occurrence, volume and duration in most cases can not be predicted in advance, but for certain phenomena, based on experience, statistics and modeling methods, and considering the place of occurrence, can be assumed that they will be occurred. Also, taking into account that there are so many specificities in the natural hazards analysis, there are many classifications of natural hazards. The most suitable classification of natural hazards would be according to a geosphere in which they occur and develop:  Lithospheric – related to processes that occur in the Earth's interior and on its surface, and their manifestation is on the topographic surface (tectonic movements, volcanism, earthquakes, landslides, rock falls, asteroid, comet and meteorite impacts); 1

Smith, K. (2007). Environmental Hazards – Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. New York: Routledge. Munich, Re. (1999). Topics 2000. Report of the Geoscience Research Group. Munich: Munich Reinsurance Company. 3 Gavrilović, Lj. (2007). Natural Disasters аs a Threat Factor to the Environment. In: Proceedings of the First Congress of Serbian Geographers, Belgrade: Srbian geographical society, pp. 69-76. 2

 Atmospheric – created by the processes that occur in the Earth’s atmosphere ( extreme temperatures, intensive rainfall, hail, severe storms, drought, frost, fog, electrical discharges);  Hydrospheric – caused by movement of large amounts of water, either in solid or liquid form (avalanches, floods on the rivers, floods on the coasts of oceans, seas and lakes);  Biospheric – hazards that occur within the living world (epidemic, epizootic, epiphytotic, forest fires). Statistical data say that the most common natural hazards are floods (40%), tropical cyclones (20%), earthquakes (15%) and drought (15%), and they make up 90% of all natural hazards on Earth4. In terms of casualties, the largest number of people in the world lose their lives as a result of tropical cyclones. About 95% of the natural hazards victims are from developing countries, but the material losses are much higher in economically developed countries (75%). All disasters can be haphazards (earthquakes), disasters initiated by man’s activities (floods, landslides) and anthropogenic (accidental) within the man built environment (accidents, breakdowns, etc.).

1. CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL DISASTERS The main reason for payin great attention to the investigation of natural hazards is consequences they leave behind. Natural hazards threaten human lives and cause significant material damage, but at the same time they change natural conditions and processes. Their consequences are not only material in nature but they manifest themselves long after their appearance, and cause different and multiple changes gradually and imperceptibly over a long period of time.. When we talk about the material consequences, if the damage on a certain territory is more than 10% of the income generated in that territory last year, elementary disaster is declared5. Every natural hazard is a potential threat to humans (death, injury, illness, stress), property (property damage, economic losses) and the environment (loss of flora and fauna, pollution and environmental degradation). The size of its consequences depends not only of the character and intensity of the very hazard, but of the economic and social conditions of the area which has been hit by the natural disaster. . In earthquake prone terrain where there is a real danger of an earthquake, the population in less developed countries is at greater risk and more vulnerable than the population of developed countries. However, it is important to emphasize that it is impossible to live in a territory that is completely free of risk. Because of that, the natural hazard has been identifying as polymorphic phenomenon. The same natural disasters (same origin and intensity), usually create two different situations in terms of induced effects. This fact gives them a specific characteristic which stems from the specific conditions of the affected areas and time, such as the structure, characteristics and urban settlement solutions, community structure, its geographical features, weather conditions, time of year, and so on. Natural disasters can be devastating, with desolate consequences for a large number of people, or they could have widespread effects throughout the world (such as large volcanic eruptions, infectious epidemics, drought, etc). Such catastrophic disasters have little chance to occur, but if they did, then the consequences can be desolate. On the other hand, natural disasters can be quick and sudden, which develop with little warning and strike suddenly or slow in progress with a long period of time for manifestation (droughts, insect invasions and infectious epidemics). The natural hazard consequences could be classified into three categories6:  The primary consequences occur as a result of the process itself, for example, damage caused by water during floods, collapse of buildings during earthquakes, the consequences of the avalanches, storm winds, etc. 4

Pllana, R. (1986). The Physical and Geographical Aspects of Natural Disasters With Reference to Certain Events in the SAP Kosovo. In: Proceedings of Yugoslav Symposium “Natural Hazards and DisastersBudva. 5 Law on the use of funds for restoration and protection from natural disasters, “Official Gazette of RS”, 50/92 6 Dragićević, S., Filipović D. (2009). Prirodni uslovi i nepogode u planiranju i zaštiti prostora. Beograd: Geografski fakultet Univerzitet u Beogradu.

 Secondary effects of the consequences caused by primary effects. For example, a fire caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, the destruction of the electrical network and water system as a result of an earthquake or a flood, a flood caused by landslide.  Tertiary effects are long-lasting effects, which are determined as a result of the primary event (theloss of dwellings caused by floods, permanent change of the river channel position caused by flooding, poor agricultural yields as a result of volcanic eruptions or drought, etc. Every year around 120,000 earthquakes (of which about 100 are extremely harmful and has significant consequences), about 100,000 thunderstorms, 10,000 floods, hundreds of landslides and tornadoes, and many hurricanes, fires, volcanic eruptions, droughts and tsunamis take place on Earth. The average economic losses from natural disasters only in the United States reached approximately $ 52 billion per year, and the estimations are that about 150,000 human lives have been lost due to the natural disasters every year. Consequences of natural disasters are manifold and can be seen throughout many aspects7:  physionomic consequences – the changes in the morphology of the terrain, mostly caused by earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides;  demographic consequences – the changes in the number and distribution of inhabitants in a territory affected by the disaster;  economic consequences – property damage, financial crisis due to falling production and damage to production facilities, job loss;  social consequences –the changes of the material status and social conditions of individuals and society as a whole, the lack of basic conditions for the normal functioning of life;  environmental consequences – the changes in natural conditions, soil degradation, water and air pollution, changes in the living world;  health consequences – people injuries, illness due to lack of hygiene, raw sewage spills, basic food items pollution;  psychological consequences – due to the loss of close people, suffered fear, material loss, change of residence.

2. NATURAL DISASTER RISK The quantity and frequency of natural disasters progressively increases with the technological advances of mankind, and the degree of environmental degradation. An apparent paradox exists between relentless human progress and an increased feeling of insecurity. As the world population grows, so more people are exposed to hazard. More people become prosperous, the more personal wealth is at risk. As agriculture intensifies and urbanization spreads, so more complex and expensive infrastructure can be damaged by extreme events. As people and property become concentrated in big cities, so the chance of very large-scale losses increases. These trends, under-pinned by higher per capita consumption, impose heavy burdens on precious natural assets, such as land, forests and water. Many people, especially in the poorest countries, now depend on a natural resource base so degraded that their lives and livelihoods are highly vulnerable to damaging forces from either ‘natural’ or ‘manmade’ sources8. During the period 1900 -1940, 100 natural disasters occurred every ten years. Later, these friquency rapidly grew: from 1960 to 1970 there were 650 natural disasters, from 1980 to 1990 2,000, while between in 1990 and 2000 their number increased up to 2,800. Only during the 2005 there were 360 disasters ( about 20% more than in the 2004, afflicting about 157 million inhabitants, and killing about 92,000 people)9. During the 2008, more than 230,000 people died in natural disasters, and most of the victims were caused by the tropical cyclone “Nagris” in Myanmar and the earthquake in China's province Sichuan. According to all those data, annual trend of the large natural disasters occurrence is increasing. These phenomena could be tracked from 1952, when there were none natural disaster, until 1993, when there were 15. It could be said that during the period 1950 - 2005, five major natural disasters had been occurred per year. Interesting data is that during the 2005 there were six 7

Gavrilović, Lj. (2007). Natural Disasters аs a Threat Factor to the Environment. In: Proceedings of the First Congress of Serbian Geographers, Belgrade: Serbian geographical society, pp. 69-76. 8 Smith, K. (2007). Environmental Hazards – Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. New York: Routledge. 9 Gavrilović, Lj. (2007). Natural Disasters аs a Threat Factor to the Environment. In: Proceedings of the First Congress of Serbian Geographers, Belgrade: Serbian geographical society, pp. 69-76.

major natural disasters, which all happened from August to October: the earthquake in Pakistan, hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the United States, Hurricane Stan in Central America, Hurricane Wilma in Mexico and in the U.S., floods in India.10 By the late 1980s and 1990s, the recorded level of disasters was about four times higher than in the 1950s, mainly due to an increase in climate-related disasters. In the 1970s and 1980s, over 20 countries suffered individual natural disasters that killed more than 10,000 people and seven countries lost more than 100,000 lives in one event. More than three million disaster-related deaths were recorded between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s.11

There are several reasons why disaster impact may be growing, even if the frequency of extreme natural events remains unchanged12:  Population growth – The overall number of people exposed to hazard is increasing, largely because around 90 per cent of that growth is taking place in the less developed countries. In these countries, human vulnerability is already high through dense concentration of population in unsafe physical settings. Continued population growth outstrips the ability of governments to invest in education and other social services and creates more competition for land resources. In poorest countries, the human use of natural resources has created a problem of food security and fragile livelihoods. Only a quarter of the people in Africa have access to safe drinking water and droughts lead to widespread famine. Yet in all countries where families survive by supplying labor, and the oldest members depend on support from the young, the pressure for large families persists. The demographic trend in the more developed countries is creating a rise in the elderly population who need specialist support in disaster.  Land pressure – Rural land pressure is growing each year and about 850 million people live in areas suffering severe environmental degradation. In many less developed countries more than 80% of the population is dependent on agriculture but without an equal access to land resources. Unsustainable land use practices with deforestation, soil erosion and over-cultivation makes their environment more vulnerable to environmental hazards such as floods and droughts. In the tropics, capitalintensive plantation agriculture displaces farmers from their land whilst the construction of reservoirs for irrigation water reduces the seasonal flooding necessary for flood-retreat agriculture. Low-lying coasts have been made more vulnerable to storm surge by the clearance of mangrove forests for fish farming and salt production in the less developed countries and for tourist development in more developed countries. Inland, the drainage of wetlands leads to a loss of common property resources such as fisheries and forests.  Urbanization – Rural-urban migration, driven by local land pressure and global economic forces, is concentrating people into badly built and overcrowded cities. In particular, the rise of the megacity has created a new scale of hazard exposure. Some 20–30 million of the world’s poorest people move each year from rural to urban areas. Already some of these cities, exposed to destructive earthquakes and other hazards, have between one-third and two-thirds of their population in squatter settlements. The rural migrants form the poorest urban dwellers. In Turkey, for example, most of the rural-urban migration has been to cities with high seismic risk. Apart from a location on unsafe sites, shanties have poor water supplies and sanitation. Coupled with poor diets, it results in inadequate nutrition and endemic disease. In more developed countries, coastal cities exposed to hurricanes have grown. Others are located in seismically active areas, like the west coast of the USA and Japan, where loosely compacted sediments or landfill sites perform poorly in earthquakes.  Inequality – Disaster vulnerability is closely associated with the economic gap between rich and poor. Over 20 million people cannot afford an adequate diet. In Asia and the Middle East, about onethird of the population lives in poverty, a proportion that rises to nearly 50 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, some 20 per cent of the population controls 80 per cent of the wealth. National disparities continue to increase, thereby exacerbating vulnerability.

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Abbott, P. (2008). Natural disasters. New York: McGraw-Hill International Edition. Clarke, C. L., Munasinghe, M. (1995). Economic Aspects of Disasters and Austainable Development: an Introduction. In: Disaster Prevention for Sustainable Development, Munasinghe, M., Clarke C. (eds), Washington, DC: IDNDR and World Bank, pp. 1–9. 12 Smith, K. (2007). Environmental Hazards – Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. New York: Routledge. 11













Climate change – It is predicted that over the coming decades, the expected temperature change will be greater and faster than at any time in the past 10,000 years. The likely physical consequences range from the more frequent inundation of some low-lying coasts, especially where natural ecosystems such as salt marsh or mangroves have been removed, to increased river flow from snowmelt in alpine areas. It is probable that the most significant effects will be experienced in countries highly dependent on natural resource use and will influence activities such as agricultural development, forestry, wetland reclamation and river management. Future shifts in disease patterns may threaten animal and human populations. The overall result is likely to widen the gap between developing and developed nations because the impacts will be most severe on ecosystems already under stress and for countries which have few spare resources for adapting to, or mitigating, climate change. Political change – The richest countries are reducing their commitments to internal welfare and to the international community. For example, in many Western countries, health spending per person has declined since 1980 and the role of the welfare state has been deliberately reduced. Over Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the collapse of communism has removed the influence of the state with respect to health care, education and social provision. State paternalism has been replaced with an unregulated scramble towards free-market ideals in which the weakest members of society are unequipped to compete. At the same time the volume of development aid has declined resulting in greater vulnerability to disaster as aid agencies are left to fill the welfare role vacated by governments. Economic growth – Economic growth, especially in the wealthy countries, has increased the exposure to catastrophic property damage. Along with the growing complexity and cost of the physical plant responsible for the world’s industrial output, capital development has ensured that each hazard will threaten an increasing amount of property unless steps are taken to reduce the risks within cities and on industrial sites. Partly in response to the growing shortage of building land, some of the growth has occurred in areas subject to natural hazards, whilst man-made hazards such as toxic chemicals and the use of nuclear power have added to the loss potential. The availability of increased leisure time has led to the construction of many second homes built in potentially dangerous locations, such as mountain and coastal environments. Technical innovation – New technology is sometimes seen as mitigating disaster through better forecasting systems and safer construction techniques. However, the more a society becomes dependent on advanced technology, the greater is the potential for disaster if the technology fails. New high-rise buildings, large dams, building construction on man-made islands in coastal areas, the spreading of nuclear reactors, the reliance on mobile homes for low-cost housing, more extensive transportation (especially air travel) are all examples of such trends. In less developed countries the introduction of low-level technology, such as the building of a new road through mountainous terrain, may increase landslides through the logging of steep slopes and some ‘modern’ concrete houses may be unable to withstand earthquakes. Social expectations – Hazard vulnerability may be increased because of rising social expectations. People have become much more mobile in recent years and expect to be transported around the world in the minimum elapsed time irrespective of adverse environmental conditions, such as severe weather. A highly secure level of service is expected from many weather-dependent enterprises, such as energy supply or water supply, and many people now rely heavily on computing facilities. Frequently, the drive for greater competition in commerce and industry has resulted in reduced manning and smaller operating margins. In turn, these apparent improvements allow less scope for an effective corporate response to environmental hazard. Global interdependence – The functioning of the world economy works against less developed countries. Most of the Third World’s export earnings come from primary commodities for which market prices have either fallen over several decades or remain highly unstable. The less developed countries have little opportunity to process and market what they produce and are dependent on manufactured goods from the industrialized nations that are often highly priced or tied to aid packages. Major disasters bring shortages in neighboring regions and create floods of international refugees.

Globally looking, more than one billion people were adversely affected by natural disasters during the period after the Second World War. Hundreds of thousands of human lives were lost, and the material damages were huge. Only to USA during the two years (1991-1993), the material damage was more than US$100

billion. In the latter years, the world economy lost more money from natural disasters in the less developed countries than it spent on development aid. The insured losses have increased even faster. Of the total 660 billion US$ lost in the natural disasters during the final decade of the twentieth century throughout the world, an estimated US$124 billion (almost 19 per cent) was borne by the insurance industry. This proportion will increase as insurance cover becomes more widespread. The record annual loss of US$170 billion was in 1995 and it was largely due to the Kobe earthquake (the most expensive environmental disaster so far recorded, which losses reaching 4 per cent of Japan’s annual GDP).13 Human sensitivity to environmental hazards is a combination of physical exposure (the range of potentially damaging events) and their variability at a particular location (human vulnerability). The actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard and often regarded as the product of probability and loss is risk. Risk is sometimes taken as synonymous with hazard but risk has the additional implication of the chance of a particular hazard actually occurring. Hazard is best viewed as a naturally occurring or human-induced process, or event, with the potential to create loss, that is, a general source of future danger. Thus, we may define:  hazard (cause) – a potential threat to humans and their welfare  risk (likely consequence) – the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss.

3. VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL DISASTERS Each territory on the Earth's surface, depending on the complex physical-geographical conditions, has its own characteristics and natural predisposition to certain events and processes, and thus for a particular type of natural hazard. According to a UN report on natural disasters in 56 countries, natural disaster of catastrophic proportions in the last 13 years has affected 2.9 billion people (650,000 per day). Direct damage from the 3455 floods, 2689storms, 479 droughts since the beginning of the century, reach about 16.2 million dollars per hour14. The biggest victims are the least developed countries. Not only that disasters increase the gap between them and the developed world, they also drive the economy and society back to several decades in past. Six out of ten national economies that are most exposed to the devastating effects of natural disastersare Asian, including Bangladesh, the Philippines and Myanmar, which are extremely vulnerable. In the year 2011, viewed through production losses, the monsoons have cost Southeast Asia around $ 6.3 billion. The natural disasters’ consequences often have global character with prolonged effect and it is not unusually to show, besides direct effect, even bigger indirect effects. In 2011, after heavy rainfall in Thailand, floods hit automobile parts factory, which hit the auto industry in the U.S., UK, China and India, as well as the plant for production of hard drives, which led to global-scale turbulence in the computer equipment market. According to the International Disaster Database it may be noticed that from decade to decade number of catastrophic disasters is growing dramatically. During the first half of the twentieth century such disasters occurred around 10 times per year, but by the time of the sixties and seventies their number raised to fifty, up to 200 in the nineties, and around 300 at the end of the century. Today, around 400 disasters occur during the year. Analyzing the proportions of each continent in the global number of victims, the largest part of the victims has Asia. For the past several years, about 2.3 billion people has been affected by some form of the natural disaster in the Asia, while only 300 million people have experienced disasters on other continents15. Asia is affected primarily because of the very high population density in the certain regions. The majority of the population still lives in the so-called megacities, monstrously large cities, which are often located in the plains on the river banks or the seaside. In contrast to the growth of the recorded disasters number, there is 13

Munich, Re. (1999). Topics 2000. Report of the Geoscience Research Group. Munich: Munich Reinsurance Company. 14 Reducing Disaster Risk. A Challenge for Development, UNDP, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, New York, 2009. http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm. 15

Berz, G., Kron, W., Loster, T., Rauch, E., Schimetschek, J., Schmieder, J., Siebert, A., Smolka, A. and Wirtz, A. (2001). World Map of Natural Hazards – A Global View of the Distribution and Intensity of Significant Exposures. Natural Hazards, 23(2-3), pp. 443–465.

an opposite trend - the number of people who get killed in natural disasters is extremely reduced. Although,. It decreases from year to year due to the overall growth of education and expert knowledge application, quality of construction of buildings and the usage of modern information –communication technologies. Vulnerability to natural disasters is an area of concern to scientists around the world, and it is of great importance for the protection of people and property in the affected countries. Therefore, the very first step of area protection is the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards as well as the assessment of the risks to the population and material goods. Risk assessment for population and the material goods is directly dependent on the distribution of the population of the Earth and its population density, but also on the level of technological development of a territory16. For this reason, the association of natural disasters, demographic and social development of modern society is the subject of interest of many scientists around the world. Considering the fact that most natural disasters can not be predicted, it is more necessary to direct focus to the protection from natural hazards’consequences, in order to limit the devastating impact on people and the environment. For this reason, the natural disaster impact analysis on the population is one of the first step which is folowed by necessary classifycation ofthe area according to its vulnerability to natural disasters. It is well known that in every populated area in the world, there are risks from natural disasters and disasters caused by synergetic action of natural and anthropogenic factors. In this regard, each country has its specificity caused by its geographical location, natural conditions, social and economic development. The vulnerability assessment of the Republic of Serbia The territory of the Republic of Serbia, with its population, material, other natural and acquired assets, is susceptible to dangers from natural disasters. The degree of vulnerability is not uniform over the entire territory, it varies and depends on the type of disaster and the expected potential damage, but it is sufficiently high to have different consequences, pose a threat to health and lives of the population and causes a substantial material damage17. The most common natural disasters withi Serbia are: hydrological (floods), atmospheric (hail-storm, drought), geomorphologic (landslides, rockfalls) and biospheric (forest fires).The vulnerability assessment of the Republic of Serbia has been presented through the risk estimation of natural disasters, which also defines the restriction zones on the basis of:  seismic vulnerability of an area (vulnerability to earthquakes),  engineering and geological conditions and benefits of an area for construction (landslides and unstable slopes, excessive erosion, torrential flows),  climate characteristics (intense rainfall, hail, drought),  hydrological characteristics of the terrain (areas affected by floods), and  the highest risk of forest fires. Figure 1.Natural hazards in Serbia

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Fuchs S., Birkmann J., Glade T. (2012). Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges, Natural Hazards. 17 Strategija prostornog razvoja Republike Srbije 2009-2013-2020 (2009). Ministarstvo životne sredine i prostornog planiranja i Republička agencija za prostorno planiranje. Beograd.

Source: Prostorni plan Republike Srbije 2010-2020. Ministarstvo životne sredine i prostornog planiranja i Republička agencija za prostorno planiranje. Beograd.

The vulnerability of an area to seismic activity is an important factor in the spatial and land use planning, as well as in determining the concentration of physical structures and infrastructural facilities. Providing earthquake protection is an integral part of spatial planning and development (i.e. of spatial and urban planning). Seismic hazard is a part of natural hazard (i.e. the probability of an earthquake with particular characteristics occurring in a given time period and in a certain place, that will manifest itself in a specific way in the observed location). On the basis of the Serbian Seismic Map analysis which gives the expected maximum earthquake intensity (a long-term forecasting character), the most vulnerability area of the Republic to seismic activity is located on the fault traces for a return period of 100 years in the zone of VII, VIII and IX degree of MCS scale (equivalent to MSK-64), which corresponds to the situation that actually

occurred in this area18. Using the model for the calculation of a seismic hazard (catalogue of the earthquakes that occurred, tectonic and neotectonic characteristics of the territory, seismotectonic map) in the conditions applicable in Serbia, with a 100-year period of the observed seismicity, implies that the probability of earthquake occurrence is 63.2% and the most reliable as such. As essential components of integrated seismic risk management system which main aim is to reduce the risk of seismic consequences, the following items can be conditionally designated:  determination of seismic risk and its acceptable level,  aseismic facilities and infrastructure systems design and construction,  spatial and urban planning in seismic conditions,  seismic risk mitigation (legal and institutional aspects, etc.),  earthquake preparedness, and  integrated information system with a database of space and the built environment. For the proper seismicity rating, seismic zoning is carried out which defines the conditions of seismicity, so that clearer picture of the place of occurrence and severity of future earthquakes could be obtained. In order to carry out seismic zoning it is necessary to perform detailed geological mapping and to know the geological and tectonic relations. Based on micro-seismic map by the possible earthquake intensity degree is determined using microzoning seismic map. In accordance with those results, a seismically stable construction are designed and developed, which with a proper application ensure the buildings and infrastructure stability from the strong earthquakes. Seismic zoning gives approximate initial parameters of seismic hazard, depending on the distance form earthquake hot spots, respectively to marked focal zone and expected seismic energy for the indicated time period. Defining the landslide vulnerability is the process based on knowledge of the natural structures of the terrain and the all external factors effects to the geological environment. Within the definition of the natural structures of the terrain several aspects has been defined: the initial geological composition, quantitative geomorphological analysis of the field, biological indicators and anthropogenic activities. The comparative analysis of quantitative geomorphological maps and allocated lithological formations reviles very accurately the potential sliding surfaces. Zone with significant landsliding process development represent the area with developed complex and mostly active landslides. These are the Tertiary basins slopes made of heterogeneous sedimentary complex, with frequent adverse relations of individual lithological environments, complex hydrogeological characteristics and unfavorable morphological conditions. This zone also includes courts made of diabase rock-chert formations. Landslides affect the slopes on a large area, great in depths, with frequent secondary activity in the older part of the sliding mass. The dynamics of the landslide development is permanent, with an extremely fast mass movement during the incurred period. The landslide recovery of this type is very difficult, because of what the recovery process is very often unreasonable. About 25% of the territory of the Republic of Serbia is potentially vulnerable to landslides and rockfalls. Due to a large area they cover in the Republic of Serbia, a landslides sweeping analysis is needed. There is currently no cadastre of landslides for the territory of Serbia, which is big obstacle for the proper land use and spatial planning process. And further on, this insufficient interaction between spatial planning and risk prevention of natural disasters continue to exist and growth. It was obviously during the 2006, when a large number of landslides all over the Serbia was registered, as well as the damages occur as their logical consequence. On the other hand, the construction of residential and ancillary facilities on the terrains predisposed for landsliding significantly contributes to disrupting the geostatic balance. Soil erosion is a type of natural risk that brings large limitation to the use of natural resources in a certain regions. Stronger types of erosion occur in 35% of the territory of Serbia. According to cadastres of torrential flows made in 1950s and 1960s, more than 12,500 torrential flows were registered (not including Vojvodina). However, besides the towns of Kragujevac, Jagodina, Ljubovija, Pirot, Grdelica and Vlasotince, the most endangered areas are Grdelička Gorge and Vranjska Ravine, the Nišava River basin, Ibarska Gorge, 18

Vukasinovic, M. (1987). Seismic map of Serbia for the reverse period of 100 years. Belgrade: Community of seismology of SFRY, Seismic department of SR Serbia.

the Timok River basin, the Jadar River basin, the Drina River basin upstream from Loznica, the Mlava and the Pek River basins, the Binačka Morava River basin in Kosovo and Metohija. The metioned areas obtained main transport corridors in Serbia (Corridor 10 highway in eastern and southeastern Serbia, as well as regional roads along the Ibar and Drina Rivers). Apart from water management and transport infrastructure (roads, railways, bridges etc), the issue of erosion, torrential flows and sediments also affects the other industries, the settlements) and agricultural land. It can be concluded that a large part of the border zone of Serbia is endangered by some kind of erosive or flooding processes, which is a limiting factor to its development. Potentially floodable areas in Serbia cover the area of 1.6 million ha, respectively 500 larger settlements and 515 industrial facilities. Furthermore, floods endanger 680 km of railways and about 4,000 km of roads. The largest areas potentially threatened by floods are located in Vojvodina and they cover 1,290,000 ha, which is about 60% of its total area. The second largest endangered area is the right shoreline of the Sava River, followed by areas in the basin of the Morava River, the right shoreline of the Drina River, the basins of Beli Drim, Kolubara, Sitnica and Timok Rivers. Looking at the general situation of the flood protection in Serbia, it can be concluded that situation is relatively good on large rivers – the Danube, Sava, Tisa and the Velika Morava, but the main problems occurs on the smaller watercourses. In recent years Serbia has been endangered by floods caused by small watercourses *(i.e. torrential flows) and all the floods that have occurred in the last twenty years were caused by these small watercourses. Floods on small watercourses and typical torrential flows are very common in Serbia. However, little has been achieved in view of flood protection on small watercourses. Prevention is of utmost importance there, including the permanent control of erosive processes in the basin and massive works in the arrangement of torrential flows. One of the biggest problem in the protecting process is, also, the lacking of a recent cadastre of torrential flows for the territory of Serbia. Atmospheric disasters include occasional short weather changes, very intense, but limited in time and space. Each atmospheric event can cause a disaster (intense precipitation, extreme temperatures, stormy winds, electric discharges, and drought). The maximum intensity of rain in the area of Serbia was 5-10 mm/min, which corresponds to daily values of 100-150 mm/day19. Apart from precipitation from rain, the intensity of snow should be taken into account. Intense snowfall followed by wind is called a blizzard. Atmospheric disasters in the form of blizzards (intense snowfall, low temperatures, cold wind, poor visibility, snowdrifts) can occur in all kind of the terrain (lowlands, highlands). Intense snowfall can cause a significant material damage (to facilities, infrastructure etc.), economic losses but casualties as well. The territory of the Republic of Serbia, by climate characteristics, belongs to the regions in which atmospheric hazards, such as hail, drought, frost, extreme temperatures, are frequent meteorological phenomenon20. As to the atmospheric hazards, particular problem is the poor state of the system for the hail defense, which is why Serbia each year suffers huge financial losses, mostly from the damage that hail inflicts to agricultural production. In Serbia today a total area of 7.744 million hectares is being defended, of which 5,113,672 acres are the agricultural land. The two regions with increased frequency of hail occurrence stand out:  Western parts of Bačka (Sombor, Bač and Apatin municipalities) up to north (Subotica), аnd to the other side to central parts of Bačka (Kula and Vrbas);  Areas from Bačka Palanka and Šid over Sremska Mitrovica, Ruma and Petrovaradin, up to north to Bečej, and over Žabalj to Zrenjanin. However, because of obsoleteness of equipment, as well as due to lack of missiles, system is not nearly as effective as it should be Apart from hail, drought is an atmospheric disaster with the most significant consequences in the territory of Serbia. The basic problem is defining the criteria for determining natural disasters caused by drought. By the analysis of the most important indicators and parameters determining the duration, frequency and intensity of drought, four areas were singled out (in view of dryness) in the territory of Serbia. The area most vulnerable 19

Andjelkovic, G. (2004). Temperature conditions on July 2007 as extreme climatic phenomenon in Serbia. Serbian Geographical Society, 87(2), pp. 51-62 20 Ducić V., Radovanović M. (2005). Climate of Serbia. Institute for Textbooks and Teaching Aids: Belgrade.

to drought are: Niško-Leskovačka Ravine with Dobrička, Belopalanačka and Aleksinačka Ravines, Vranjska and Gnjilanska Ravine, Kosovo Polje with Drenica, Metohija, Negotinska Krajina and northeastern Bačka with northern Banat. Drought mostly affects agriculture, tourism and leisure, forest management and energy sectors and it is a limiting factor for the development of an area. Other atmospheric disasters are low temperature with frost and storms. Frost is defined as a period with air temperatures below 0°C, with considerable material damage caused if it lasts for a long time and if it occurs during the period when it is fatal for the crops. Frost that may occur in mid to late spring is very dangerous, because it is responsible for large-scale destruction of crops and causes huge socio-economic consequences, particularly to the rural population. Storm winds can also cause enormous damage. They are capable of breaking vegetation, damaging buildings and infrastructure, causing large snow drifts in the winter, preventing the normal traffic flow. A typical example of a strong wind is Košava, which is strongest in the southern and southeastern Banat. Also, short-term developments strong high-speed winds (tromba) are possible, whose origins are connected with the frontal character instability of the atmosphere. Although they occur in a limited area, because of the speed that can reach over 300 km/h, these winds are a major threat to the population and material goods. Extremely significant natural disaster risk in Serbia refers to forest fires. It is known these fires are the most common in dry years, with very high air temperature in the summer period, and with minimal or none atmospheric precipitation. According to the data from the national forest inventory, forests cover 29.6% of the total territory. Deliblato Sands and Eastern Serbia are especially endangered by forest fires. Between 1990 and 2005, about 43,000 ha of forests and forest land were destroyed in forest fires. In 2007 there were 482 fires that covered 34,000 ha of forests and forest land, which was a considerable increase in their frequency in comparison to 2003, when 51 fires were registered with 324 ha of affected forests and forest land21 . Up until now, the Republic of Serbia has not had a clearly defined policy of protection from natural disasters and this issue was either dealt with by spectral studies for individual types of disasters or with various planning documents. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt the strategy of integral protection from natural disasters, in the following period, that would, along with the appropriate planning and other measures and instruments, have to be supported by corresponding legal, spatial-planning, urban and technical regulations, particularly related to the policy of land use, construction of facilities and technical infrastructure. That would allow defining an acceptable level of risk of natural disasters at all levels and in all phases of planning process. After that, system of preventive, organizational and other measures and instruments could be developed in order to prevent the occurrence of natural disasters where it is possible had to reduce the consequences of disasters to an acceptable level. The extant of vulnerability to natural disasters is an important factor for choosing the location and land use planning, as well as for the concentration levels for physical structures and infrastructure determinin. Because of that it is highly important to incorporate a natural disaster protection instruments and systems into spatial and urban planning process and documents. In such way, it is possible to develop natural disaster management system, and further on the natural risk management system, too.

4. NATURAL DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Considering the fact that most natural disasters can not be predicted, it is necessary to focus more attention on the protection from their effects in order to limit devastating impact on people and the environment. Scientific and technological progress in all spheres of modern society, especially in construction, improved the methods which are able to withstand various extreme natural conditions. While one group of researchers is trying to predict and forecast natural disasters and with the various construction projects reduce the consequences of their occurrence, the other group is trying to find a method for behavior and taking action



21

Prostorni plan Republike Srbije 2010-2020. Ministarstvo životne sredine i prostornog planiranja i Republička agencija za prostorno planiranje. Beograd.

after the occurrence of disasters (disaster assistance). In this second group two important systems are integrated: natural disaster management system and risk management system. Integral segment of natural disaster management system is appropriate plans for protection of affected area which should be constantly updated. Protection against natural disasters is implemented through a system of measures:  preventive measures for protection;  measures for protection in the case of an imminent danger from disaster;  measures of participation in the protection when natural disasters occur, which ensure the envolvement of forces and resources in protection from these disasters;  measures to mitigate or eliminate the direct consequences caused by the natural disasters occurence. The modern approach to natural disasters risk management includes three main phases of analysis and planning: risk analysis, risk assessment and risk management. Risk analysis of potential disasters includes the identification of possible natural disasters that may occur in a particular area, as well as the consequences that these may cause. In this regard, it is very important to determinate the potential damage from natural disasters22. Risk assessment involves the selection of the most important, priority risk in a particular area, based on a comparative analysis of all potential risks. Risk management is the most important and final phase of the risk study in a particular territory and requires an integrated approach, and includes the following segments:  Defining the goals of risk management;  Review of the risk management approach;  Planning of measures in risk management;  Implementation of the adopted risk management system;  Risk management software development. Appropriate spatial planning process implies adequate database about the natural hazards, the vulnerability (the fragility levels) and the risk (the losses) to the elements at risk23. It means ensuring that planning authorities are provided with integrated information (e.g. floods zoning, building and population risk zoning) rather than with raw information (hydrological map, building types map and population density map). This is required in order to choose the best counter-disaster measure(s) amongst many available options. Great attention is given to international cooperation in managing the risks from natural disasters and accidents, as evidenced by a number of conferences, seminars, international projects. The first World Conference on Disaster Reduction, was held in Yokohama, Japan in 1994, and second was held in Kobe (Japan), in 2003, with the adopted Framework for Action from 2005 to 2015 (Hyogo Framework) – both of wich were a sort of framework for governments, international and regional agencies, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and other stakeholders for joint action within the prevention improvement of natural disaster. At the UN General Assembly in the year 2000 the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction was adopted, and the International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction declared (second Wednesday in October). Also, the natural disaster risk management is given a lot of attention in the European Union, too (projects financed from EU funds)24. The current situation in Serbia is characterized by incompleteness and unavailability of information about spatial distribution of certain natural disasters and the vulnerability of Serbian territory to natural disaster, the risks of possible natural disasters, the consequences which they may cause, the roll of public sector. The insufficient capacity of local authorities, professional services and consultants for the modern approach to risk management, as well as the lacking of anadequate monitoring of natural, natural-anthropogenic and anthropogenic processes are the tasks which have to be done in the process of natural disaster management 22

Cheng-Wu, Ch., Chun-Pin, Ts., Wen-Ko, H., Wei-Ling, Ch. (2012). A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, Vol 64, Iss.2, pp. 1391-1403., http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-012-0305-3 23 Montoya, L., Masser, I. (2005). Management of Natural Hazard Risk in Cartago,Costa Rica. Habitat Interantional, 29, pp. 493-509. 24 http://www.comunita-montana-forlivese.fo.it/rimadima/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5&Itemid=6

creation. The problem is also the inadequate legal framework and the lack of adequate legal and technical regulations. , Regarding the management of atmospheric hazards, international and regional cooperation refers to the communication of the Republic Hydro meteorological Service of Serbia, with relevant expert state institutions for atmospheric hazards, the World Meteorological Organization and the national agencies of other countries in order to have two-way cooperation in the field of meteorology, hydrology, environmental control, air traffic control and the establishment of a protocol for the professional international cooperation. For hydrological hazards, international and regional cooperation takes place by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection, and via the Directorate for Water and the Republican Administration for the Forests. In the framework of international cooperation, representatives of the Directorate cooperate with all European countries on the adoption and implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union. In the region, Serbia is cooperating with all neighbors on the issues of water protection (water quality), the protection from water (flood protection) at the border rivers and with all of them Serbia has a joint commission on these issues (cooperation is especially good with Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania). Natural disaster risk management is developed in order to minimize the impact of natural catastrophes, based on a detailed analysis of the risk assessment results. This is very important not only for the planners, but for decision-makers and those who are ought to create suitable policy or regulatory mechanisms in this area. This system is an important input for several different industries, such as, general and life insurance, real estate, construction, government and development funding organizations, agriculture, and utilities sector. For the natural disaster risk management within insurance industry, it is especially important to determine insurance and control plan taking into account the necessary balancing the economic effects.

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Pllana, R. (1986). The Physical and Geographical Aspects of Natural Disasters With Reference to Certain Events in the SAP Kosovo. In: Proceedings of Yugoslav Symposium “Natural Hazards and Disasters“, Budva Prostorni plan Republike Srbije 2010-2020. Ministarstvo životne sredine i prostornog planiranja i Republička agencija za prostorno planiranje. Beograd. Smith, K. (2007). Environmental Hazards – Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. New York: Routledge. Strategija prostornog razvoja Republike Srbije 2009-2013-2020 (2009). Ministarstvo životne sredine i prostornog planiranja i Republička agencija za prostorno planiranje. Beograd. Law on the use of funds for restoration and protection from natural disasters, “Official Gazette of RS”, 50/92 Vukasinovic, M. (1987). Seismic map of Serbia for the reverse period of 100 years. Belgrade: Community of seismology of SFRY, Seismic department of SR Serbia.

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