NBC/WSJ Poll

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES July 2013

Study #13266 -- page 1 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Interviews: 1000 Adults, including 300 cell phone only respondents

Date: July 17-21, 2013

48 Male 52 Female

Study #13266 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.

The margin of error for 1000 interviews among Adults is ±3.10%

Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults.

Q2a

For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST.) 18-24 .................................................................... 25-29 .................................................................... 30-34 .................................................................... 35-39 .................................................................... 40-44 .................................................................... 45-49 .................................................................... 50-54 .................................................................... 55-59 .................................................................... 60-64 .................................................................... 65-69 .................................................................... 70-74 .................................................................... 75 and over .......................................................... Not sure/refused ................................................

Q2b

To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? Yes, Hispanic................................................... No, not Hispanic .............................................. Not sure/refused ............................................

Q2c

11 7 8 8 13 6 10 10 10 6 4 7 -

11 88 1

And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? White ............................................................... Black ............................................................... Asian ............................................................... Other ............................................................... Hispanic (VOL) .............................................. Not sure/refused ...........................................

73 12 2 4 7 2


Q3


All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things 1 are off on the wrong track? High

Headed in the right direction ...... Off on the wrong track ............... Mixed (VOL) ............................ Not sure ...................................

9/01 72 11 11 6

Low 10/1720/08+ 12 78 7 3

6/13 32 59 6 3

4/13 31 61 5 3

2/13 32 59 6 3

1/13 35 57 4 4

12/12 41 53 3 3

10/12+ 41 53 4 2

9/2630/12+ 40 53 5 2

9/1216/12+ 39 55 4 2

8/12+ 32 61 4 3

7/12+ 32 60 5 3

6/12 31 61 5 3

5/12 33 58 5 4

4/12 33 59 6 2

3/12 33 58 5 4

1/12 30 61 5 4

12/11 22 69 6 3

11/11 19 73 5 3

10/11 17 74 5 4

8/11 19 73 5 3

7/11 25 67 5 3

6/11 29 62 6 3

5/11 36 50 10 4

4/11 28 63 6 3

2/11 31 60 6 3

1/11 35 56 5 4

12/10 28 63 6 3

11/10 32 58 6 4

10/2830/10+ 31 60 5 4

10/1418/10+ 32 59 6 3

9/10 32 59 5 4

8/2630/10 30 61 6 3

8/59/10 32 58 6 4

6/10 29 62 5 4

5/611/10 34 56 6 4

3/10 33 59 5 3

1/23 25/10 32 58 7 3

1/1014/10 34 54 10 2

12/09 33 55 10 2

10/09 36 52 9 3

9/09 39 48 10 3

7/09 39 49 9 3

6/09 42 46 9 3

4/09 43 43 10 4

2/09 41 44 9 6

1/09 26 59 9 6

7/13 29 61 6 4

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES July 2013 Q4


In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Approve ................. Disapprove ............ Not sure ..............

7/13 45 50 5

High

Low

9/1216/12+ 50 48 2

4/09 61 30 9

11/11 44 51 5

4/13 47 48 5

2/13 50 45 5

1/13 52 44 4

12/12 53 43 4

10/12+ 49 48 3

9/2630/12+ 49 48 3

8/12+ 48 49 3

7/12+ 49 48 3

6/12 47 48 5

5/12 48 46 6

4/12 49 46 5

3/12 50 45 5

1/12 48 46 6

12/11 46 48 6

11/11 44 51 5

10/11 44 51 5

8/11 44 51 5

7/11 47 48 5

6/11 49 46 5

5/11 52 41 7

4/11 49 45 6

2/11 48 46 6

1/11 53 41 6

12/10 45 48 7

11/10 47 47 6

10/2830/10+ 45 50 5

10/1418/10+ 47 49 4

9/10 46 49 5

8/2630/10 45 49 6

8/59/10 47 48 5

6/10 45 48 7

5/2023/10 48 45 7

5/611/10 50 44 6

3/10 48 47 5

1/2325/10 50 44 6

1/1014/10 48 43 9

12/09 47 46 7

10/09 51 42 7

9/09 51 41 8

8/09 51 40 9

7/09 53 40 7

6/09 56 34 10

4/09 61 30 9

2/09 60 26 14

6/13 48 47 5

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q5

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

7/13 6/13 4/13 Approve ............................................. 45 46 47 Disapprove ........................................ 51 49 50 Not sure .......................................... 4 5 3

6/10 46 50 4

2/13 44 51 5

1/13 49 48 3

12/12 49 47 4

10/12+ 46 52 2

9/2630/12+ 46 51 3

9/1216/12+ 47 51 2

High

Low

8/12+ 44 54 2

2/09 56 31 13

8/11 37 59 4

7/12+ 44 53 3

6/12 42 53 5

5/12 43 52 5

4/12 45 52 3

3/12 45 51 4

1/12 45 50 5

12/11 39 57 4

11/11 40 57 3

10/11 39 57 4

8/11 37 59 4

7/11 43 54 3

6/11 41 54 5

5/11 37 58 5

4/11 45 52 3

2/11 46 49 5

1/11 45 50 5

12/10 42 54 4

11/10 42 54 4

10/1418/10+ 43 53 4

9/10 42 54 4

8/2630/10 39 56 5

8/59/10 44 52 4

5/611/10 48 46 6

3/10 47 50 3

1/2325/10 47 49 4

1/1014/10 43 49 8

12/09 42 51 7

10/09 47 46 7

9/09 50 42 8

7/09 49 44 7

6/09 51 38 11

4/09 55 37 8

2/09 56 31 13




Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

7/13 4/13 Approve ............................................. 46 46 Disapprove ........................................ 46 43 Not sure........................................... 8 11

12/12 52 40 8

10/12+ 49 46 5

9/2630/12+ 49 46 5

9/1216/12+ 49 46 5

8/12+ 54 40 6

7/12+ 53 41 6

5/12 51 42 7

1/12 51 41 8

11/11 52 41 7

8/11 50 45 5

6/11 50 44 6

5/11 57 35 8

4/11 49 46 5

1/10 50 37 13

12/09 49 42 9

10/09 51 39 10

9/09 50 36 14

7/09 57 33 10

6/09 54 36 10

4/09 56 31 13

11/10 48 44 8


Q7

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Congress is doing?

7/13 Approve ..................... 12 Disapprove ................ 83 Not sure ................... 5

High

Low

1/13 14 81 5

8/12+ 12 82 6

1/12 13 80 7

8/11 13 82 5

6/11 18 74 8

5/11 22 70 8

4/11 20 73 7

2/11 22 69 9

9/98 61 28 11

7/13 12 83 5

9/10 20 73 7

8/2630/10 21 71 8

8/59/10 21 72 7

6/10 22 73 5

5/611/10 21 72 7

3/10 17 77 6

1/1014/10 21 67 12

12/09 22 68 10

10/09 24 65 11

9/09 22 66 12

7/09 24 63 13

6/09 29 57 14

4/09 28 58 14

2/09 31 54 15

1/09 23 68 9

12/08 21 69 10

10/1720/08+ 12 79 9

10/45/08+ 13 78 9

9/1922/08+ 15 73 12

7/08+ 15 75 10

6/08+ 13 79 8

1/08 18 70 12

9/07 23 65 12

3/07 31 53 16

9/06+ 20 65 15

1/06 29 56 15

9/05 29 53 18

1/05 41 40 19

6/04+ 40 42 18

1/04 46 41 13

9/03 39 45 16

1/03 42 39 19

9/02 40 44 16

1/02 54 29 17

6/01 47 34 19

1/01 48 35 17

9/00+ 46 41 13

1/00 48 36 16

9/99 40 49 11

12/98 44 42 14

1/96 26 65 9

1/94 33 54 13




Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA)

1

Barack Obama July 2013 ..................................... May 30-June 2, 2013 ................... April 2013 .................................... February 2013 ............................. January 2013 ............................... December 2012 ........................... October 2012+ ............................. September 26-30, 2012+ ............. September 12-16, 2012+ ............. August 2012+ .............................. July 2012+ ................................... June 2012 .................................... May 2012 ..................................... April 2012 .................................... March 2012.................................. January 2012 ............................... December 2011 ........................... November 2011 ........................... October 2011 ............................... August 2011 ................................ June 2011 .................................... May 2011 ..................................... April 2011 .................................... February 2011 ............................. January 2011 ............................... December 2010 ........................... November 2010 ........................... October 28-30, 2010+ .................. October 14-18, 2010+ .................. September 2010 .......................... August 26-30, 2010 ..................... August 5-9, 2010 ......................... June 2010 .................................... May 20-23, 2010 .......................... May 6-11, 2010 ............................ March 2010.................................. January 23-25, 2010 .................... January 10-14, 2010 .................... December 2009 ........................... October 2009 ............................... September 2009 .......................... July 2009 ..................................... June 2009 .................................... April 2009 .................................... February 2009 ............................. January 2009 ...............................

Very Positive

Somewhat Positive

28 28 30 31 31 37 34 37 35 31 33 29 32 30 28 28 22 26 23 24 27 33 28 28 29 25 28 29 29 29 26 27 27 28 29 31 29 29 29 36 38 37 41 45 47 43

20 19 17 18 21 16 15 15 13 17 16 19 17 18 21 22 23 19 23 20 22 21 22 21 23 23 21 18 19 18 20 19 20 19 20 19 23 23 21 20 18 18 19 19 21 23

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very Negative

Don't Know Name/ Not Sure

12 13 10 11 11 9 8 6 9 8 8 14 10 13 14 10 13 15 14 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 12 9 12 12 13 13 15 12 11 14 12 13 11 11 10 11 12 12 17

14 12 15 14 11 14 12 11 11 13 11 11 12 13 12 14 15 13 12 14 13 13 13 15 14 14 13 15 17 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 16 15 12 14 14 12 10 9 8

26 28 27 26 26 24 31 31 31 30 32 27 29 26 25 25 27 27 28 30 24 18 23 20 18 24 26 27 26 27 27 27 25 24 24 24 20 19 22 21 19 20 17 13 10 6

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3

10

1

30

-

6

40

4

1

45

-

Barack Obama High February 2009 ................................... 47 21 12 9 Presidential Term Low August 2011....................................... 24 20 12 14 All-time Obama Low October 28-30, 2006+ ........................ 14 17 18 5 NBC-WSJ All-time Presidential Tracking High/Low within Presidential Term High March 1991 (George H.W. Bush) .......................... 50 30 9 6 Low October 17-20, 2008+ (George W. Bush) ............................. 11 18 11 15 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.



Q8 (cont'd)

Pope Francis July 2013 ..................................... 1 George W. Bush July 2013 ..................................... April 2013 .................................... June 2012.................................... August 2011 ................................ May 2011..................................... October 28-30, 2010+ ................. August 26-30, 2010+ ................... June 2010.................................... January 2010............................... April 2009 .................................... January 2009............................... December 2008 ........................... October 17-20, 2008+ ................. October 4-5, 2008+ ..................... September 19-22, 2008+............. September 6-8, 2008+................. August 2008+ .............................. July 2008+ ................................... June 2008+ ................................. April 2008+ .................................. March 24-25, 2008+ .................... March 7-10, 2008+ ...................... January 2008............................... June 2007.................................... January 2007............................... June 2006.................................... January 2006............................... July 2005 ..................................... January 2005............................... June 2004+ ................................. January 2004............................... July 2003 ..................................... January 2003............................... June 2002.................................... January 2002............................... June 2001.................................... January 2001............................... High December 2001 ........................... Low April 2009 .................................... Marco Rubio July 2013 ..................................... April 2013 .................................... February 2013 ............................. John Boehner July 2013 ..................................... January 2013............................... December 2012 ........................... January 2012............................... February 2011 ............................. January 2011............................... November 11-15, 2010 ................ October 14-18, 2010+ ................. September 2010 .......................... October 2009............................... January 2007............................... Andrew Cuomo July 2013 .....................................

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very Negative


15

30

2

3

30

13 14 13 15 13 12 8 7 10 9 13 11 11 12 13 15 15 14 11 12 16 16 14 12 17 18 24 27 32 33 38 38 36 43 53 30 25

25 21 23 20 24 20 22 22 20 17 18 20 18 18 17 18 19 18 19 19 17 18 18 20 18 21 17 20 19 15 17 21 20 27 26 23 25

22 21 18 20 22 16 22 21 18 15 11 10 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 13 12 10 10 11 12 9 12 10 9 8 8 9 12 11 10 16 18

14 16 19 20 16 17 15 19 17 16 17 16 15 13 13 14 15 16 16 14 13 12 17 15 17 15 13 15 15 14 13 14 16 10 7 15 13

25 28 26 24 24 34 32 31 34 41 41 43 45 45 46 41 40 42 44 42 41 43 40 42 35 37 33 28 25 30 24 17 16 9 4 15 17

1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

54

26

9

6

5

-

9

17

15

16

41

2

7 12 10

16 16 14

20 18 20

11 8 9

9 8 8

37 38 39

3 3 3 4 6 7 8 3 5 2 1

15 15 16 14 14 16 11 11 9 7 4

24 23 23 22 22 23 20 16 19 12 12

18 18 14 16 9 9 7 6 8 7 4

18 19 15 16 12 6 10 12 9 8 2

22 22 29 28 37 39 44 52 50 64 77

5

11

24

9

6

45

Very Positive

Somewhat Positive

20

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.



Q8 (cont'd)

Joe Biden July 2013 ...................................... January 2013 ............................... December 2012............................ October 2012+ ............................. September 26-30, 2012+ ............. August 2012+ ............................... July 2012+.................................... May 2012 ..................................... December 2010............................ August 26-30, 2010 ...................... January 10-14, 2010 .................... July 2009 ...................................... January 2009 ............................... December 2008............................ October 17-20, 2008+ .................. October 4-5, 2008+ ...................... September 19-22, 2008+ ............. September 6-8, 2008+ ................. September 2007........................... December 2006............................ June 2004+ .................................. Martin O’Malley July 2013 ...................................... Edward Snowden July 2013 ...................................... George Zimmerman July 2013 ......................................

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very Negative


21 21 18 19 19 21 20 20 24 21 23 25 27 25 23 22 20 22 13 14 11

21 17 18 15 19 20 23 21 25 21 25 20 22 25 19 24 25 23 26 23 25

15 16 15 13 14 14 14 16 15 15 15 17 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 10 6

20 21 23 29 24 26 23 21 18 20 14 19 9 11 14 15 16 12 11 6 4

6 5 5 3 6 4 5 7 8 9 8 6 10 7 4 6 9 12 35 44 49

2

5

14

2

3

74

4

7

24

10

24

31

4

10

33

14

25

14

Very Positive

Somewhat Positive

17 20 21 21 18 15 15 15 10 13 15 13 20 20 28 21 17 18 4 3 5

SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES – BY D/S (POSITIVE – NEGATIVE) TOTAL TOTAL POSITIVE NEGATIVE Pope Francis ...................................................... 35 5 Barack Obama ................................................... 48 40 Marco Rubio ....................................................... 23 20 Joe Biden ........................................................... 38 35 Martin O’Malley .................................................. 7 5 Andrew Cuomo .................................................. 16 15 George W. Bush................................................. 38 39 John Boehner ..................................................... 18 36 Edward Snowden ............................................... 11 35 George Zimmerman ........................................... 14 39

D/S 30 8 3 3 2 1 -1 -18 -24 -25



And, although it’s a long way off… Q9 What is your preference for the outcome of NEXT year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?

Republican-controlled Congress .......... Democrat-controlled Congress ............. Not sure ..............................................

7/13+ 44 44 12

6/13+ 42 45 13

10/12+ 43 45 12

9/2630/12+ 43 47 10

8/12+ 42 47 11

7/12+ 45 46 9

6/12+ 44 45 11

5/12+ 43 44 13

4/12+ 44 46 10

3/12+ 41 46 13

1/12+ 41 47 12

12/11+ 43 45 12

11/11+ 43 46 11

10/11+ 41 45 14

8/11+ 47 41 12

6/11+ 44 44 12

10/10+ 44 46 10

9/10+ 44 44 12

8/2630/10+ 43 43 14

8/59/10+ 42 43 15

6/10+ 45 43 12

5/2023/10+ 44 43 13

5/611/10+ 44 44 12

3/10+ 42 45 13

1/2325/10+ 42 44 14

1/1014/10+ 41 41 18

12/09+ 41 43 16

10/09+ 38 46 16

9/09+ 40 43 17

7/09+ 39 46 15

4/09+ 39 48 13

11/08+ 36 48 16

10/08+ 36 49 15

9/08+ 37 50 13

8/08+ 36 47 17

7/08+ 36 49 15

6/08+ 33 52 15

4/08+ 34 49 17

3/08+ 35 49 16

11/07+ 37 46 17

9/07+ 35 47 18

10/06+ 37 52 11

9/06+ 39 48 13

7/06+ 38 48 14

6/06+ 38 49 13

4/06+ 39 45 16

3/06+ 37 50 13

1/06+ 38 47 15

12/05+ 38 46 16

11/05+ 37 48 15

10/05+ 39 48 13

7/05+ 40 45 15

5/05+ 40 47 13

10/04+ 43 44 13

9/04+ 42 46 12

6/04+ 42 44 14

5/04+ 41 44 15

3/04+ 42 45 13

1/04 42 43 15

12/13/03 42 42 16

10/02+ 43 42 15

9/02 42 42 16

7/02 43 41 16

6/02 42 41 17

1/02 44 40 16

12/01 42 40 18

12/99 40 44 16

10/99 39 41 20

7/99 39 43 18

6/99 42 41 17

4/99 41 40 19

3/99 37 43 20

10/98+ 41 43 16

9/98 40 39 21

7/98 41 40 19

6/98 39 40 21

2/98 41 37 22

1/98 40 42 18

12/97 41 37 22

9/97 41 39 20

7/97 45 39 16

4/97 44 38 18




In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance?

Deserves to be reelected ........... Give new person a chance ........ Not sure ...................................

8/12+ 43 47 10

3/12+ 40 48 12

8/11+ 42 47 11

10/2830/10+ 37 51 12

8/2630/10+ 31 56 13

6/10+ 35 57 8

1/1014/10+ 39 49 12

12/09+ 38 49 13

10/09+ 41 49 10

9/09+ 40 49 11

7/08+ 40 47 13

11/07+ 39 51 10

6/07+ 41 48 11

10/1316/06+ 39 45 16

9/3010/2/06+ 38 45 17

9/811/06+ 41 43 16

7/06+ 38 48 14

6/06+ 42 45 13

3/06+ 41 48 11

1/06+ 41 46 13

12/05+ 41 44 15

11/05+ 37 51 12

5/05+ 42 45 13

10/04+ 49 34 17

10/02+ 42 39 19

9/02 41 42 17

10/00+ 50 35 15

9/00+ 49 38 13

6/00+ 49 39 12

12/99 42 47 11

10/98+ 48 37 15

12/97+ 41 45 14

10/94+ 39 49 12

9/94 30 53 17

5/94 34 50 16

1/94 35 47 18

10/93 34 52 14

9/93 37 47 16

7/93 30 55 15

10/92+ 31 56 13

9/92+ 31 56 13

7/92+ 27 62 11

4/92+ 33 57 10

2/92+ 37 52 11

1/92+ 42 48 10

7/13+ 32 57 11


Q11

If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative, would you do this, or not? 10/287/13+ 1/12+ 8/11+ 30/10+ Yes ...................................................................... 57 56 54 45 No ....................................................................... 39 40 41 50 Not sure ............................................................ 4 4 5 5

8/2630/10+ 48 49 3

6/10+ 47 50 3

3/10+ 50 47 3

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters

Q12

Many Americans have expressed their disappointment with the government in Washington. Which one or two, if any, of the following items makes you most unhappy with the performance of the government in Washington? (RANDOMIZE)(IF ALL, THEN ASK:) Well, if you had to choose just one or two, which would you say make you MOST unhappy with the performance of the government in Washington? TABLE RANKED BY HIGEST PERCENTAGE (FIRST CHOICE)

The partisanship and inability of Congress to get things done ..................................... The needs and challenges facing average middle class Americans being ignored ..... The policies and leadership of the Obama Administration ........................................... The overreach of government with too many regulations ............................................ The influence of lobbyists and the special interests ..................................................... Cuts to programs that help the poor ........................................................................... The policies and leadership of congressional Republicans .......................................... Decisions by the Supreme Court ................................................................................. All of these (VOL) ...................................................................................................... None ..........................................................................................................................

First Choice 27 16 13 12 11 10 4 3 3 1

Combined Choice 44 31 24 22 22 20 12 9 3 6



Moving on… Q13 Who do you want to see take the lead role in setting policy for the country––Barack Obama or the Congress? 7/13 Barack Obama ................................... 38 Congress ............................................ 48 Shared/equal role (VOL) .................. 3 Neither (VOL) ................................... 8 Not sure ............................................ 3

1

12/12 40 46 5 7 2

11/10 39 52 4 3 2

12/062 21 59 13 4 3

1/06 25 49 16 7 3

1/02 44 32 22 1 1

3/991 35 47 10 5 3

1/99 38 43 12 5 2

1/98 28 49 17 4 2

9/97 35 43 14 4 4

6/97 35 45 12 5 3

4/97 38 44 12 3 3

1/97 34 43 18 2 3

12/96 38 44 14 2 2

3/95 33 54 6 3 4

12/94 31 55 8 2 4

11/94+ 30 55 11 1 3

Prior to January 2002, this question was phrased, “Who do you want to see take the lead role in setting policy for the country--President Clinton or the Congress?” 2 In 2006 and 2002, this question was phrased, “Who do you want to see take the lead role in setting policy for the country—George W. Bush or the Congress?” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

(ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAID CONGRESS IN Q13) Q14 And when you say you want to see Congress take the lead role in setting policy for the country, do you mean the Democrats in the U.S. Senate or the Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives? 7/13 12/12 Democrats in the U.S. Senate ............................................................................... 9 7 Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives .............................................. 28 25 Shared/equal roles (VOL) ................................................................................... 7 12 Not sure .............................................................................................................. 4 2 Not Asked – Want to see Barack Obama take the lead role, shared/equal role, neither, or not sure on Q13 .................................................... 52 54

11/10 8 33 8 3 48

Now, thinking about something different… Q15 Based on what you have seen, heard, or read recently do you feel that [READ ITEM] are/is emphasizing unifying the country in a bipartisan way or emphasizing a partisan approach in a way that does not unify the country. (READ CHOICES AND REPEAT FOR EACH ITEM. ROTATE.) Emphasizing unifying the country Barack Obama July 2013 ....................................... February 2013 ..................................... The Democratic Party July 2013 ....................................... February 2013 ..................................... The Republican Party July 2013 ....................................... February 2013 .....................................

Emphasizing a partisan approach

(VOL) Both/Mixed

Not Sure

45 48

48 43

2 2

5 7

34 37

55 49

2 3

9 11

22 22

67 64

2 2

9 12



Which of the following best describes how you feel about how Barack Obama will do during the rest of his second term--optimistic and confident that he will do a good job, satisfied and hopeful that he will do a good job, uncertain and wondering whether he will do a good job, or pessimistic and worried that he will do a bad job? 7/13 1/13 Optimistic ......................................... 17 24 Satisfied ........................................... 27 27 Uncertain .......................................... 22 21 Pessimistic ....................................... 34 27 Not sure .......................................... 1 1

1

12/12 30 23 17 30 -

2

10/12+ 27 23 13 37 -

9/12+ 23 27 11 39 -

4/12+ 20 29 16 34 1

8/11+ 23 23 14 40 -

In January 2013, the question was phrased, “Which of the following best describes how you feel about Barack Obama will do during his second term…“ + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 2 Prior December 2012, the question was phrased, “Which of the following best describes how you feel about Barack Obama being reelected as president…“ + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q17

Do you think Barack Obama can be an effective president during his last three years in office, or that he won't be able to get much done for the rest of his second term?

7/13 Can be effective ................................. 43 Won’t be able to get much done ......... 53 Not sure............................................ 4

George W. Bush 1 11/05 36 56 8

Gallup Poll – September 1998 As of now, do you think Bill Clinton can be an effective president during his remaining two years in office, or not? Can be an effective president ................. Cannot be an effective president ............ Not sure ................................................

Q18

58 39 3

Do you think Republicans in Congress are too inflexible in dealing with President Obama, are too quick to give in to President Obama, or are they striking the right balance in dealing with President Obama?

Too inflexible ............................................ Too quick to give in .................................. Right balance ........................................... Not sure ................................................. 1

Republican Congress/ Barack Obama 1 7/13 1/11 56 55 18 8 19 32 7 5

Democratic Congress/ George Bush 2 1/07 38 8 48 6

Republican Congress/ Bill Clinton 3 1/95 47 4 43 6

In January 2011, the question was stated “Do you think Republicans in Congress will be too inflexible in dealing with President Obama, will be too quick to give in to President Obama, or will they strike striking the right balance in dealing with President Obama?” 2

In January 2007, the question was stated “Do you think the Democratic Congress will be too inflexible in dealing with the Democratic Congress, will be too quick to give in to the Democratic Congress, or will strike the right balance in dealing with President Bush?” 3

In January 1995, the question was stated “Do you think the Democratic Congress will be too inflexible in dealing with the Democratic Congress, will be too quick to give in to the Republican Congress, or will strike the right balance in dealing with President Clinton?”



Now, thinking about immigration… Q19 If Congress is unable to come to agreement on an immigration bill before the end of its current term who do you think will be most to blame -- (RANDOMIZE) the Republicans in Congress, the Democrats in Congress, or President Obama? The Republicans in Congress ........... The Democrats in Congress ............. President Obama .............................. All equally to blame (VOL) .............. Not sure ..........................................

44 14 21 11 10

JUNE 2006 If Congress is unable to come to agreement on an immigration bill before the end of its current term who do you think will be most to blame––the Republicans in Congress, the Democrats in Congress, or President Bush? The Republicans in Congress .......... The Democrats in Congress ............. President Bush ................................. All equally to blame (VOL) .............. Not sure ..........................................

Q20

17 15 24 33 11

When you hear Republicans say that immigration reform must wait until the border is secure, do you think that is a legitimate concern that needs to be addressed first before immigration reform can take place, or they are using that as an excuse to block action on immigration reform? Legitimate concern............................ 36 Excuse to block reform ..................... 59 Mixed/Some of both (VOL) ............ 1 Not sure .......................................... 4



Now, turning to the economy... Q21 During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

Economy will get better...................... Economy will get worse ..................... Economy will stay about the same..... Not sure ...........................................

6/13 32 18 49 1

12/12 38 28 33 1

10/12+ 45 9 34 12

9/2630/12+ 44 13 35 8

9/1216/12+ 42 18 32 8

8/12+ 36 18 38 8

7/12+ 27 25 45 3

6/12 35 20 41 4

5/12 33 19 46 2

4/12 38 19 42 1

3/12 40 23 35 2

1/12 37 17 44 2

12/11 30 22 47 1

11/11 25 28 47 -

10/11 21 32 45 2

8/11 22 30 47 1

7/11 26 31 41 2

6/11 29 30 39 2

4/11 33 21 46 -

2/11 29 29 41 1

1/11 40 17 42 1

12/10 32 24 42 2

11/10 37 15 46 2

10/1418/10+ 37 20 41 2

9/10 32 24 41 3

8/2630/10 26 26 45 3

8/59/10 34 25 39 2

6/10 33 23 43 1

5/610/10 40 20 38 2

3/10 41 22 36 1

1/1014/10 41 19 38 2

10/09 42 22 33 3

9/09 47 20 30 3

7/09 44 21 32 3

6/09 46 22 29 3

4/09 38 30 30 2

10/08+ 38 20 37 5

10/06+ 22 22 51 5

10/04+ 43 10 33 14

10/02+ 41 20 34 5

10/98+ 17 24 54 5

10/94 31 24 40 5

7/13 31 21 47 1

1

Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the next year…” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q22

As you may know, across the board automatic federal spending cuts to military and non-military programs were put in place on March first in order to reduce the federal deficit. How much of an impact have these automatic spending cuts had on you and your family—(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) a great deal, quite a bit, just some, or not much at all?

Great deal ........................................ Quite a bit ........................................ Just some ........................................ Not much ......................................... None at all (VOL) ........................... Not sure .........................................

7/13 12 10 20 51 4 3

4/13 9 7 17 58 6 3



And, switching topics again… Q23 In general, do you think race relations in the United States are (ROTATE) very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?

7/13 11/11 Very good ......................................... 4 7 Fairly good ........................................ 48 64 Fairly bad .......................................... 28 18 Very bad ........................................... 16 8 Mixed (VOL) .................................... 2 NA Not sure .......................................... 2 3

1/10 8 64 16 7 NA 5

9/09 13 59 14 8 4 2

All Adults 1/09 7 70 16 5 NA 2

4/07 4 54 28 10 NA 4

9/05 8 55 20 10 5 2

10/95 2 32 41 20 4 1

9/94 4 45 31 15 4 1


1/10 7 65 17 7 NA 4

9/09 12 63 13 6 4 2

Whites 1/09 6 73 16 4 NA 1

4/07 3 56 28 8 NA 5

9/05 9 58 19 7 5 2

10/95 1 33 42 18 5 1

9/94 4 45 32 13 5 1


1/10 8 58 20 8 NA 6

African Americans 9/09 1/09 4/07 6 7 3 44 57 37 22 18 34 16 12 24 7 NA NA 5 6 2

9/05 3 45 28 19 3 2

10/95 3 28 35 30 3 1

9/94 5 39 26 26 3 1


1/10 11 57 13 10 NA 9

Hispanics 9/09 15 57 13 12 2 1

1/09 13 63 17 6 NA 1

4/07 11 44 32 10 NA 3

9/05 8 49 17 19 7 -



Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement--America is a nation where people are not judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

7/13 Strongly agree .................................. 20 Somewhat agree .............................. 34 Somewhat disagree .......................... 23 Strongly disagree .............................. 22 Not sure .......................................... 1

All Adults 1/10 1/09 24 20 36 40 23 24 16 15 1 1

1/08 20 27 29 22 2


Whites 1/10 1/09 24 20 38 44 23 23 14 11 1 2

1/08 21 30 31 17 1

African Americans 7/13 1/10 1/09 1/08 Strongly agree .................................. 9 12 14 17 Somewhat agree .............................. 10 28 27 12 Somewhat disagree .......................... 25 26 26 21 Strongly disagree .............................. 54 32 30 50 Not sure .......................................... 2 2 3 -


Hispanics 1/10 1/09 27 24 30 34 25 24 17 16 1 2

1/08 17 24 27 28 4



And, turning to the issue of health care... Q25 From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. (IF GOOD IDEA/BAD IDEA, ASK:) And, do you feel that way strongly, or not so strongly?

7/13 Total Good idea ............................ 34 Strongly ......................................... 26 Not so strongly .............................. 8 Total Bad idea .............................. 47 Not so strongly ............................. 6 Strongly ......................................... 41 Do not have an opinion ................. 18 Not sure ....................................... 1

6/13 37 28 9 49 6 43 13 1

7/12+ 40 31 9 44 5 39 15 1

6/12 35 25 10 41 6 35 22 2

4/12 36 27 9 45 6 39 17 2

12/11 34 23 11 41 8 33 24 1

1/11 39 29 10 39 5 34 21 1

10/1418/10+ 36 25 11 46 5 41 16 2

6/10+ 38 28 10 46 7 39 15 1

5/61 10/10 38 28 10 44 6 38 17 1

3/10 Good idea ....................................... 36 Bad idea ......................................... 48 Do not have an opinion ................. 15 Not sure ....................................... 1

1/2325/10 31 46 22 1

1/1014/10 33 46 18 3

12/09 32 47 17 4

10/09 38 42 16 4

9/09 39 41 17 3

8/09 36 42 17 5

7/09 36 42 17 5

6/09 33 32 30 5

4/09 33 26 34 7

1

Prior to May 2010, the question did not ask “And, do you feel that way strongly, or not so strongly?” + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q26

Now I’m going to read you two statements about the health care plan that was signed into law in 2010. Please tell me which comes closer to your point of view. (ROTATE) (Some/Other) people say that if Republicans in Congress believe the health care law is harmful and will have negative consequences for individuals, small businesses, and the economy they should continue to do everything they can to prevent it from being put into effect. (Some/Other) people say that over the past few years, the health care law was passed by Congress, signed by the president, and upheld by the Supreme Court. Regardless of how Republicans in Congress personally feel about the law they should stop trying to block it and should move on to other priorities. Republicans should prevent law from going into effect ........ Republicans should stop trying to block the law ................... Both (VOL) ............................................................................. Neither (VOL) ........................................................................ Not sure .................................................................................

45 51 1 3

And, thinking about something else… Q27 In general, do you the U.S. Supreme Court is too liberal or too conservative in its decisions? 7/13 Too liberal ..................................40 Too conservative .......................38 About right (vol.) ..................... 9 Depends (vol.) ........................ 3 Not sure ...................................10

Q28-Q34 embargoed for later release.

4/12 33 35 11 5 16

5/92 28 54 4 5 9



And, thinking about something else… Q35 Has the George Zimmerman trial related to the death of Trayvon Martin increased your confidence in the legal system, decreased your confidence, or had no effect on your confidence in the legal system? Increased .......................................... Decreased ........................................ No effect ........................................... Not sure ..........................................

17 32 48 3

June 1995 Has the O.J. Simpson trial increased your confidence in the legal system, decreased your confidence, or had no effect on your confidence in the legal system? Increased.......................................... 4 Decreased ........................................ 51 No effect ........................................... 42 Not sure .......................................... 3

Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1a Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (state from Q1x)]? Registered ........................................ Not registered ................................... Not sure ..........................................

86 14 -

QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in last November's election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK:) For whom did you vote––Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? + Yes, Voted Voted for Barack Obama ............................. Voted for Mitt Romney ................................. Voted for someone else ............................... Not sure ....................................................... No, Did Not Vote .......................................... Not sure .....................................................

43 33 8 5 10 -


QF2

Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? Currently Employed Professional, manager............................. White-collar worker .................................. Blue-collar worker .................................... Farmer, rancher ....................................... Not Currently Employed Student .................................................... Stay at home mom/dad ........................... Retired ..................................................... Unemployed, looking for work ................. Other ....................................................... Not sure .................................................

24 18 18 1 3 6 24 4 2

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES July 2013 QF3


What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) Grade school ........................................................... Some high school .................................................... High school graduate .............................................. Some college, no degree......................................... Vocational training/2-year college ........................... 2-year college degree 4-year college/bachelor's degree............................. Some postgraduate work, no degree ...................... 2-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree......... Doctoral/law degree ................................................ Not sure/refused ....................................................

QF4a

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") Strong Democrat ............................................... Not very strong Democrat .................................. Independent/lean Democrat .............................. Strictly Independent ........................................... Independent/lean Republican ............................ Not very strong Republican ............................... Strong Republican ............................................. Other (VOL) ....................................................... Not sure ...........................................................

QF4b

4 24 16 3 10 24 3 11 4 1

19 11 14 18 13 8 11 2 2

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?

7/13+ Yes ................................21 No .................................67 Depends (VOL) ...........3 Not sure ......................9

6/13+ 24 65 3 8

2/13+ 20 64 4 12

1/13+ 23 63 4 10

10/12+ 24 64 3 9

9/2630/12+ 25 66 2 7

9/1216/12+ 22 65 4 9

8/12+ 26 63 3 8

7/12+ 25 65 2 7

6/12+ 24 64 3 9

5/12+ 30 60 2 8

4/12+ 25 64 2 9

3/12+ 28 63 2 7

1/12+ 27 66 2 5

12/11+ 27 65 3 5

11/11+ 25 69 2 4

10/11+ 26 64 3 7

8/11+ 27 62 4 7

6/11+ 26 63 3 8

5/11+ 26 62 2 10

4/11+ 25 67 3 5

2/11+ 29 61 3 7

1/11+ 27 62 3 8

12/10+ 29 61 3 7

11/10+ 30 59 4 7

10/2830/10+ 28 61 3 8

10/1418/10+ 30 59 2 10

9/10+ 28 61 3 8


QF5

Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? Very liberal ....................................... Somewhat liberal .............................. Moderate .......................................... Somewhat conservative ................... Very conservative ............................. Not sure ..........................................

11 12 43 20 12 2

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES July 2013 QF6a


What is your religion? Protestant (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Episcopal, Presbyterian, and other Christians) .......................................... Catholic ..................................................................................... Jewish ....................................................................................... Muslim ....................................................................................... Mormon/LDS/Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints ........ Other ......................................................................................... None .......................................................................................... Not sure/refused ......................................................................

51 22 2 1 2 8 12 2

(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY PROTESTANT, OTHER, NONE, OR NOT SURE IN QF6a.) QF6b Would you describe yourself as either a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you not describe yourself that way? Fundamentalist/evangelical ............................................. 15 Neither fundamentalist nor evangelical ........................... 54 Not sure ........................................................................ 4 Catholic/Jewish/Muslim/Mormon (QF6a) ......................... 27

QF7a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF7a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? Labor union member......................... Union household ............................... Non-union household........................ Not sure ..........................................

QF8

14 8 77 1

Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or are you unmarried and living with a partner? Married .......................................................... 53 Widowed ......................................................... 8 Separated ...................................................... 2 Divorced ........................................................ 10 Single/never been married ............................. 20 Unmarried and living with a partner ................ 6 Refused ........................................................ 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES July 2013 QF9


Do you have a health plan, that is, are you covered by a private health insurance plan or by a government program such as Medicare, Medicaid, or Tricare? (IF RESPONDENT OFFERS MORE THAN ONE, ASK:) Well, what kind of plan would you say your primary plan is? YES, private health insurance ................... YES, MediCARE ....................................... YES, MediCAID ........................................ YES, Tricare.............................................. NO, do not have a health plan .................. Other ....................................................... Don't know/refused .................................

58 15 5 2 12 5 3

(ASKED OF RESPONDENTS WITH PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE – QF9:1) QF10 And, is the private health insurance coverage you have…(ROTATE :1-3) Provided through your or your spouse's employer .. A plan you purchase yourself .................................. Your parents’ health plan ....................................... Some other arrangement ........................................ Not covered by private health insurance (QF9) ....

QF11

43 10 3 2 42

If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that? Less than $10,000 .................................... Between $10,000 and $20,000 ................. Between $20,000 and $30,000 ................. Between $30,000 and $40,000 ................. Between $40,000 and $50,000 ................. Between $50,000 and $75,000 ................. Between $75,000 and $100,000 ............... More than $100,000 .................................. Not sure/refused ......................................

5 10 10 10 9 15 13 19 9