Population Decline and Ageing in Japan - Maison Franco-Japonaise

INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DE RECHERCHE SUR LE JAPON CONTEMPORAIN FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ON CONTEMPORARY JAPAN フランス国立現代日本研究センター UMIFRE 19 CNRS- MAEE

Population Decline and Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences by Florian COULMAS (Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien, Tokyo)

Working paper - Série L : Lunch Seminar WP-L-05-IFRJC-Coulmas-09-04.pdf PPT presented during the Lunch Seminar on the 24th of April 2009, with Marc Humbert as a discussant at 日仏会館 for our フランス国立現代日本研究センター..

UMIFRE 19 CNRS-MAEE 〒150-0013 東京都渋谷区恵比寿 3-9-25 日仏会館 3-9-25, Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 150-0013 Japon TEL +81 (0) 3 5421 7641 / FAX +81 (0) 3 5421 7651 / http://www.mfj.gr.jp/

Population Decline and Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences Maison franco japonaise, 24 April 2009 Florian Coulmas Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien Tokyo

Infant Mortality and TFR

http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html

http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html

Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien

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Mortality Pyramid 1920, 2005


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Average Life Expectancy：1947~2002

Source:Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Life Table (Complete Life Table)" "Abridged Life Table" for 2001 and 2002


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4

Centenarians 1963-2005

30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000

Men 男女 Women 性性

0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

参考資料：国立社会保障・人口問題研究所平成18年度版人口統計資料集

Population change in comparison •

国

65歳以上人口の比率至るまで年数

•

7%

10%

14%

7% ~ 14%

• • • • • •

仏スウェーデン米国スイス英国ドイツ

1864 1887 1942 1931 1929 1932

1943 1948 1972 1960 1946 1942

1979 1972 2014 1982 1976 1972

年数 115 85 72 51 47 40

•

日本

1970

1985

1994

25


4

6

Total Population and Projections 1950－－2050

資料：国立社会保障・人口問題社会保障・人口問題研究所


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Changing Population Structure: three age groups 1950-2003 0-14

65-

35.4

1950

59.7

30.0

1960 1970

23.9

1980

23.5

1990

15-64

4.9

64.2

5.7

69.0

7.1

67.4

18.2

9.1

69.7

12.1

2000

14.6

68.1

17.4

2001

14.4

67.7

18.0

2002

14.2

67.3

18.5

2003

14.0

66.9

19.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


5

100%

8

GNP and TFR

30000

2,5

25000

2

20000 1,5 15000 1

GNI-Gross National Income (PPP $) Total fertility rate

10000 0,5

5000

0

0 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2003


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6

Late Marriage

• • • • • •

初婚年齢 1950年 2005年男 25,9歳 29,8歳女 23,0歳 28,0歳初産年齢 25,6歳 29,1歳


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Marriage and Divorce


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12

Birth rate and age at first marriage 1955 - 2000


Desired number

Actual number

of children

of children

(ideal)

1977 2005

(TFR)

2.61 2.48

1.80 1.29

Data: “Dainanaji shussanryoku chōsa hōkoku”, Kōseisho jinkō mondai kenkyūsho (1977) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2005)

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Difference

.81 1.19

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Number of children per married couple, desired and planned

3,00

2,50

2,67

2,62

2,61

2,00 2,17

2,2

2,64 2,23

2,56

2,53 2,18

2,16

2,48 2,13

2,11

1,50

Desired Planned

1,00

0,50

0,00 1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2005

Data: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2005. Dai 13kai kōkō kihon chōsa (fūfu chōsa). In: Akaibu Shuppan, Josei no kurashi to seikatsu ishiki detashū. Tokyo: Akaibu Shuppan, p.56


Desired number

Planned number

Actual

of children

of children

of children

(ideal) 2005

15

number

(TFR)

2.48 2.11 1.29

Data: “Daijusankai shussan dōkō kihon chōsa. Kekkon to shussan ni kansuru zenkoku chōsa. Kokuritsu shakai hoshō jinkō mondai kenkyūsho (2005) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2005)


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16

Single Person Households


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Official suicide ciphers 1947 - 2006

Source: Naikakufu, “Jisatsu no gaiyō oyobi jisatsu taisaku no jisshi jōkyō” http://www.ncnp.go.jp/ikiru-hp/071220/03.pdf


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