Poster template - TU Delft

2 downloads 0 Views 444KB Size Report
Systems: • NSOG has specific characteristics beyond those of power systems. • Specific research questions require different methodologies, due to complexity.
Modelling Complex Systems: The North Seas Offshore Grid and Future Research João Gorenstein Dedecca, Delft University of Technology, Phone +31 (0)15 27 82061, E-mail: [email protected] Rudi A. Hakvoort, Delft University of Technology, Phone +31 (0)88 18 00081, E-mail: [email protected]

1. Overview

2. Methods

The North Seas offshore grid (NSOG) in Europe connects offshore wind power (OWP) and onshore power systems in the North Seas.

3. Indicators

Models Review and Framework Definition

The NSOG is a priority corridor for the European Commission, and will contribute to the 2030 Climate and Energy Policy framework goals, to the completion of the Internal Energy Market, and to technological and industrial policy goals.

Literature review

Indicator selection

Systems characterization

Categories definition

Objective: To review published bottom-up energy models of the NSOG and orient future NSOG research

Systems characteristics Wind Hubs

Country A

Integrated

Categories

Indicators

Systems Characterization Country C

Country A

Country A

Cable length and offshore wind capacities

Analysis

Typologies Radial

Offshore wind capacities of studies

Shore Conn. Hubs

Country B

Interconnectors to hubs

Country B

Country B

Less Integration

More Integration

• Lumpy & asset specific • Economies of scale • Long life • Loop flows • Requires coordinated expansion

4. Results of Study Analysis Studies Data & Presentation • Costs and benefits presentation important for comprehension and comparison • Higher costs can lead to higher benefits, but many factors influence the results Reviewed Research Questions • Focus: investment & planning and operation & reliability, with few studies on energy policy or technology • Energy policy and regulation is studied mainly qualitatively • Endogenous modelling challenging due to energy models complexity Modelling • Optimization models are prevalent, in detriment of equilibrium and simulation models • Time horizon is a balance between research question, availability of data and credibility of results • Scenarios, sensitivity analysis and project portfolios are the standard approaches to uncertainty • Strategic behavior modelling is rare but promising

NSOG

Direct interconnectors

• Expansion & operation coordination • Increased uncertainties • Strategic behavior • Externalities • Policy interactions

Transmission

Direct interconnectors

Re-regulated Markets

Hubs

• Developing technology • Many typologies • Wind variability and uncertainty • Geography and time dependent • Regulatory differences

Large variation in OWP and typologies due to data and models possibilities: • Exogenous and/or endogenous models • Generation and/or transmission expansion models

• No direct relation between grid typology and ranking of cable length or capacity • Some evidence of meshed grids having a lower km/GW ratio

5. Conclusions

Acknowledgments

Systems:

This research is being funded by the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate on Sustainable Energy Technologies and Strategies (SETS).



NSOG has specific characteristics beyond those of power systems



Specific research questions require different methodologies, due to complexity

Studies focus on investment & planning and operation & reliability research questions, using optimization models Studies vary significantly and have limited comparability •

NSOG has economic, operational and environmental benefits nonetheless

Integrated typologies may be more beneficial, but have possible disadvantages •

Distributional and governance issues



Higher investment needs



Loop flows and interaction with onshore power systems



Technological uncertainty

Future research opportunities •

Energy policy questions

Systems Characteristics



Equilibrium and simulation models

• Externalities are difficult to valuate and use unstandardized indicators • Environmental impacts can be lower in the integrated grid • Static models fail to capture timing dependencies



Storage and DSM



Addressing the characteristics of the systems



Strategic behavior

Literature This work and the references to the reviewed energy models are available at the webpage of the main author. Please visit http://homepage.tudelft.nl/w67e1