Modelling Complex Systems: The North Seas Offshore Grid and Future Research João Gorenstein Dedecca, Delft University of Technology, Phone +31 (0)15 27 82061, E-mail:
[email protected] Rudi A. Hakvoort, Delft University of Technology, Phone +31 (0)88 18 00081, E-mail:
[email protected]
1. Overview
2. Methods
The North Seas offshore grid (NSOG) in Europe connects offshore wind power (OWP) and onshore power systems in the North Seas.
3. Indicators
Models Review and Framework Definition
The NSOG is a priority corridor for the European Commission, and will contribute to the 2030 Climate and Energy Policy framework goals, to the completion of the Internal Energy Market, and to technological and industrial policy goals.
Literature review
Indicator selection
Systems characterization
Categories definition
Objective: To review published bottom-up energy models of the NSOG and orient future NSOG research
Systems characteristics Wind Hubs
Country A
Integrated
Categories
Indicators
Systems Characterization Country C
Country A
Country A
Cable length and offshore wind capacities
Analysis
Typologies Radial
Offshore wind capacities of studies
Shore Conn. Hubs
Country B
Interconnectors to hubs
Country B
Country B
Less Integration
More Integration
• Lumpy & asset specific • Economies of scale • Long life • Loop flows • Requires coordinated expansion
4. Results of Study Analysis Studies Data & Presentation • Costs and benefits presentation important for comprehension and comparison • Higher costs can lead to higher benefits, but many factors influence the results Reviewed Research Questions • Focus: investment & planning and operation & reliability, with few studies on energy policy or technology • Energy policy and regulation is studied mainly qualitatively • Endogenous modelling challenging due to energy models complexity Modelling • Optimization models are prevalent, in detriment of equilibrium and simulation models • Time horizon is a balance between research question, availability of data and credibility of results • Scenarios, sensitivity analysis and project portfolios are the standard approaches to uncertainty • Strategic behavior modelling is rare but promising
NSOG
Direct interconnectors
• Expansion & operation coordination • Increased uncertainties • Strategic behavior • Externalities • Policy interactions
Transmission
Direct interconnectors
Re-regulated Markets
Hubs
• Developing technology • Many typologies • Wind variability and uncertainty • Geography and time dependent • Regulatory differences
Large variation in OWP and typologies due to data and models possibilities: • Exogenous and/or endogenous models • Generation and/or transmission expansion models
• No direct relation between grid typology and ranking of cable length or capacity • Some evidence of meshed grids having a lower km/GW ratio
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Systems:
This research is being funded by the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate on Sustainable Energy Technologies and Strategies (SETS).
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NSOG has specific characteristics beyond those of power systems
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Specific research questions require different methodologies, due to complexity
Studies focus on investment & planning and operation & reliability research questions, using optimization models Studies vary significantly and have limited comparability •
NSOG has economic, operational and environmental benefits nonetheless
Integrated typologies may be more beneficial, but have possible disadvantages •
Distributional and governance issues
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Higher investment needs
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Loop flows and interaction with onshore power systems
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Technological uncertainty
Future research opportunities •
Energy policy questions
Systems Characteristics
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Equilibrium and simulation models
• Externalities are difficult to valuate and use unstandardized indicators • Environmental impacts can be lower in the integrated grid • Static models fail to capture timing dependencies
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Storage and DSM
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Addressing the characteristics of the systems
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Strategic behavior
Literature This work and the references to the reviewed energy models are available at the webpage of the main author. Please visit http://homepage.tudelft.nl/w67e1