from Diesel Light Duty Vehicles in Cities and Standard Metropolitan. Statistical ... Environment from Petroleum Refineries, Diesel Vehicles and All Sources .
LMF-82
LMF-82
UC-48 October
1980
POTENTIAL HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DIESEL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
R.G.
CUDDIHY, F.A.
W.C.
GRIFFITH, and
INHALATION LOVELACE P.O.
R.O.
B.R.
SELLER, SCOTT
McCLELLAN
TOXICOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE BIOMEDICAL & ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE Box 5890,
Albuquerque,
NM 87115
Prepared for the Health and Environmental Risk Analysis Program, Office of" Health and Environmental Research, Assistant Secretary for Environment, U. S. Department of Energy under Contract Number DE-ACO4-76EVOIOI3.
H E R A P
Health and Environmental Risk Analysis Program
NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. Neither the United States nor the United States Department of Energy: nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
Printed
in the United States of America Available
From
National Technical Information Service U. S. Department of Commerce 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161
L MF-82 Category: UC-48
POTENTIALHEALTHAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DIESEL LIGHT DUTYVEHICLES
R. G. Cuddihy, F. A. Seller, W. C. Griffith, and R. O. McClellan
B. R. Scott
Inhalation Toxicology ResearchInstitute Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental ResearchInstitute P. O. Box 5890, Albuquerque, NM87115
October1980
For Questions Please Contact: Richard G. Cuddihy, Ph.D. Lovelace Inhalation Toxicology ResearchInstitute P. O. Box 5890 Albuquerque, NM87115 Telephone: Commercial: (505) 844-7544 FTS: 844-7544
Prepared for the Health and Environmental Risk Analysis Program, Office of Health and Environmental Research, Assistant Secretary for Environment, U. S. Department of Energy under Contract Number DE~ACO4-76EVOIOI3.
TABLEOFCONTENTS Section
Page EXECUTIVE SUMr.IARY..............................................................
i
I
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................
7
II
THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY.................................................. Future Growth of the Reference Industry
III
11
...................................
12
Federal Emissions Standards ...............................................
13
Section II Summary........................................................
13 15
HEALTHRISKS FORWORKERS IN THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY...................... Current Industrial
Accident and Fatality
Worker Risks for the Projected
Records ..........................
Diesel Reference Industry
15 18
..................
Summaryof the Health Risk Projections for Workers in the Diesel Reference Industry After 1995 ........................................... IV
19 21
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSOF THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY......................... Petroleum Spills
in Transportation
Accidents ..............................
21
Refinery Emissions ........................................................
22
Automobile Services .......................................................
23
Exhaust Emissions from Light
24
Duty Diesel Vehicles .........................
Projected Environmental Levels of Photochemically and Gases ............................................................... Projected Environmental Levels of Diesel Particulate
Reactive Vapors 25 Emissions ............
28
Summaryof the Environmental Pollutants from the Diesel Reference Industry ................................................................
34 37
EXPOSURES OF PEOPLETO DIESEL POLLUTANTS IN THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT ............ Inhalation Ingestion Deposition Particle VI
Exposures to Diesel Emissions .................................. of Diesel Particles
.............................................
40
and Clearance of Toxic Substances Absorbed on Diesel Emissions ......................................................
41
HEALTHRISK PERSPECTIVES ON EXPOSURES TO DIESEL VEHICLEEMISSIONS.............. Diesel Emissions Health Effect Approach to Estimating
43
Studies ....................................
43 44
Lung Cancer Risk Factors ...........................
Lung Cancer Risks for Exposures to Diesel Emissions .................... Vll
37
SUMMARY OF THE HEALTHANDENVIRONMENTAL RISKS FROMDIESEL VEHICLES.............
...
48 51
Summaryof Worker Health Risks ............................................
51
Summaryof Environmental Effects
..........................................
51
Summaryof the HumanHealth Risks .........................................
52
TABLEOFCONTENTS (CONTINUED)
Page
Section REFERENCES .....................................................................
53
Appendix A ......................................
57
’ ...............................
Appendix B .....................................................................
59
Appendix C .....................................................................
63
LIST OFFIGURES Fi,gure No. I-1
Title
Page
Risks . ApproachUsedto Estimatethe FutureHealthand Environmental 8 for the Projected DieselReference Industry................................
I-2
ApproachUsed in Estimating the Health Risks from Exposures of People to Toxic Chemicals in the Environment ......................................
II-I
The DieselReference IndustryUsedfor Estimating Healthand EnvironmentalEffects............................................................. 11
IV-1
Concentrations of GaseousHydrocarbonsand Ozonein DowntownSan Francisco and Livermore for 0%, 20%and 100%Use of Diesels ................
27
Concentrations of GaseousHydrocarbonsand Ozoneat Different Locations in the Bay Area: San Francisco, San Jose and Livermore for 100% Use of Diesels .............................................................
27
Distributions of Populations and Areas of Cities and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA)in 1975 ..............................
3O
Projected Distributions of Average Air Concentrations of Particles from Diesel Light Duty Vehicles in Cities and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA)...................................................
31
IV-5
Simulated Dispersion of Urban Particle Emissions into Rural Areas ..........
33
IV-6
Comparisonof Air Lead Concentrations Measuredat Rural and Urban Stations in the National Air Surveillance Network Between1966 and 1974 ...................................................................
33
IV-2
IV-3 IV-4
V-1
Projected Amountsof DieselExhaustParticles Deposited Annuallyin PeopleLivingin Citiesand StandardMetropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA)........................... ¯ ......................................... 39
V-2
Model Developedby Rabinowitz et al. (1976) for the Metabolism Lead in People ............................................................
4O
MeasuredAnnual Lung Cancer Risk for Various Populations Compared to AverageAir Concentrations of Benzo(a)pyrene...........................
47
MeasuredAnnual Lung Cancer Risk for Various Populations Compared to Average Air Concentrations of Particles ................................
47
A-1
Representation of a Typical United States Oil Refinery ....................
57
B-1
lllustration of Intercellular ExchangeUsed in the Environmental Dispersion Model ..........................................................
59
lllustration of Model ApproachUsed to Project Air Concentrations of Particles in Urban Centers .............................................
6O
VI-I Vl-2
B-2
il
LIST OF TABLES Table No. ES-1
Title
Page
Current Use of Petroleum in the United States Compared to Future Requirements for Diesel Fuel to be Used in Light Duty Vehicles ..............
2
ES-2
Annual Occupational Accident and lllness Risks for Existing Industries in the United States Compared to Projections for the Diesel Reference Industry .....................................................................
ES-3
Examples of Gaseous and Particulate Emissions into the. Environment from Petroleum Refineries, Diesel Vehicles and All Sources ..................
ES-4
Atmospheric Concentrations of Some Pollutants Currently Existing in Rural and Urban Areas of the United States and Projections for Diesel Vehicles in the Future ...........................................
ES-5
Projected Amounts of Airborne Particles and Constituent Hydrocarbons that are Inhaled or Ingested Annually in the U. S. Population from Atmospheric Pollutants, Cigarette Smoke and Exhausts from 20% Diesel Vehicles in theFuture ........................................ . ..............
ES-6
Number of Fatalities
II-i
Current and Proposed Future Emissions Standards for Diesel and Gasoline Engine Light Duty Vehicles (g/km) ..................................
13
Summaryof the Assumed Parameter Values for Projecting the Growth of the Diesel Reference Industry and Public Use of Diesel Vehicles After 1995 ..................................................................
14
Accident Risks for the Petroleum and Automotive Industries, Reported for 1976 or Estimated from United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (1977, 1979) ............................................
15
Industrial Accident and Mortality Rates Reported by the United States Department of Labor (1977, 1979) .............................................
16
Petroleum Production, Imports and Refining in the United States (in million metric tons) ....................................................
17
Distribution of Deaths in Male Petroleum Workers and in the Total Male Population of the United States ........................................
17
Projected Workdays Lost and Fatalities for the Diesel Reference Industry After 1995 .........................................................
18
IV-1
Oil Spills
.........................
21
IV-2
Emissions of U. S. Petroleum Refineries
in 1975/76 ..........................
22
IV-3
Refinery Emissions Due to the Operation of Light Duty Diesel Vehicles (thousand tons) ....................................................
23
Required Amounts of Lubricating Oil and Amounts of Waste Crankcase Oil Projected for the Diesel Reference Industry .............................
23
IV-5
Typical Emissions from Production Line Light Duty Diesels ...................
24
IV-6
Concentrations of Some Polynuclear Hydrocarbons in Diesel Exhaust Particulate Matter ..........................................................
25
Projected Diesel Emissions into the Environment for 20% Light Diesel Vehicles .............................................................
26
11-2
III-i
III~2 111-3 111-4 111-5
IV-4
IV-7 IV-8 IV-9
Attributable
Due to Various Causes in the U. S. Population
to Diesel Usage (tons/year)
..........
Duty
Changes in Primary Auto Exhaust Constituents Due to the Introduction Diesels in the San Francisco Bay Area .......................................
of
Simulated Pollutant Levels in the San Francisco Bay Area for 20% and 100%Diesel Light Duty Vehicles During a High Oxidant Level Day .............
III
27
29
IV-IO
Values of Meteorological Parameters Used in the Urban Dispersion Model to Project Average Atmospheric Particle Concentrations ................
31
Summaryof Environmental Pollutants from the Reference Industry for 20%Light Duty Diesel Vehicles ..............................................
35
AssumptionsUsed in Estimating the Magnitudes of Inhalation Exposures to Diesel Emissions for Large Populations After 1995 ........................
38
Summaryof the Total Amountsof Polynuclear HydrocarbonsThat May be Inhaled or Ingested by People Due to Operation of the Diesel Reference Industry ..........................................................
42
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbonsin Urban Air and the Estimated Amounts Deposited Annually in People Living in the United States ....................
44
VI-2
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbonsin Cigarette Smokeand the Estimated AmountsDeposited Annually in All Smokersin the United States ..............
45
Vl-3
Summaryof Population Exposures to Benzo(a)pyrene and Annual Cancer Risks .......................................................................
46
Summaryof Population Exposures to Airborne Particles and Annual Cancer Risks ................................................................
46
Comparisonof Individual Annual Lung Cancer Risks and Additional Risks from Diesel Exposuresfor Various Population Groups...................
50
Comparisonof U. S. and Imported Crude Oil by VolumePercent Related to Rangesof Boiling Points and by VolumePercent of Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Refined Fromthe Oils ...........................................
57
Simulated Air Concentrations of Diesel Exhaust Particles in Urban Environments With Different Vehicle Densities and Population Distributions ...............................................................
61
IV-11 V-1
VI-I
VI-4 Vl-5 A-1
B-1
iv/v
EXECUTIVESUMMARY This report summarizesthe potentialenvironmentaleffectsand human health risks for projected increaseduse of diesel light duty vehiclesin the United States. It representsapproximately one year of study and is the first of a series of annual reports on this topic, Proposals to increasethe use of diesel engineswere stimulatedby the federalgovernment’sCorporate Average Fuel Economy Requirements for of fuel
than gasoline
1985. Because diesel
engine vehicles,
vehicles
they can help manufacturers
achieve more miles per gallon meet the required
fleet
average
of 27.5 miles per gallon. The potential
future
use of diesel
vehicles
on the environment and about the possible tries
or living
has raised concerns about their
health risks
in congested urban environments.
This report
does provide some perspectives
on the following
concerns, but it
What are the likely
requirements
possible
effects
to people working in diesel-related
for diesel
fuel
does not resolve specific
all
indus-
of these
questions:
and other petroleum products
in the
future? ¯
What are the health
risks
vehicles
vehicle
and diesel
¯
What wastes will
¯
What new pollutants
¯
Will
diesel
¯
Will
toxic
Some perspectives
for workers in industries
be produced’and will will
supplying
diesel
fuels,
these require
be introduced
engine emissions affect
into
special
handling or disposal?
the environment?
atmospheric quality?
substances accumulate in the environment and present a risk
on these important
contained in the main body of this
diesel
service?
questions
to human health?
are summarized here, with more detailed
evaluations
report.
Future Petroleum Requirements At the present time,
about 800 million
metric
tons of petroleum are refined
United States each year. About 40% is converted into distillate
gas oil
and diesel
for the middle distillate this
report,
additional
fuel current
can not be greatly cost penalties
may be incurred
This is the limiting
Health Risks for
duty vehicle
and 20% is converted into
fleet,
increase in diesel will
require
This assumes that all
if
the relative
the demand for diesel
factor
that are shared by occupational general,
duty vehicles metric
for the projected
of gasoline
fuel
increases
used in
tons of fuel processes
fuel,
severe
much beyond the indicated
growth of the diesel risk
and diesel
uses
reference
industry
assessment developed in this
that
report.
Workers in Diesel Related Industries
and service
were evaluated in this
accidents
light
30 to 50 million
People working in the petroleum and automotive industries
tional
middle
are the largest
other competing uses of this
productions
the health and environmental
workers in other manufacturing industries
transport
This balance is shown in Table ES-1. Because refinery
changed to alter
is used as the basis for
The projected
in the future. levels.
gasoline
Home heating and heavy truck
fraction.
20% of the light diesel
remain at their
level.
fuel.
and used in the
and illnesses
report
industries.
to provide perspectives
have similar
risks
just
as
to workers in diesel-related
on the relative
groups and by members of the general public. are compared in Table ES-2 for
the petroleum and automotive industries
ployee as do other categories
incur occupational
Future risks
several existing numbers of lost
costs to society
Risks for
occupa-
industries.
In
workdays per em-
of workers. These types of data were used to project
the risks
to
TABLEES-1 CURRENT USE OF PETROLEUM IN THE UNITED STATESCOMPARED TO FUTUREREQUIREMENTS FORDIESEL FUEL TO BE USEDIN LIGHT DUTYVEHICLES
Million
Metric Tons
PetroleumCurrentlyRefinedin U. S. DomesticCrude
45O
ImportedCrude
35O
TOTAL
8OO
Fuel Used Currentlyin Road Transport 330
Gasoline
45
DieselFuel
30-50
Future Light Duty Diesel VehicleFuel Required(1995)
TABLEES-2 ANNUALOCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTANDILLNESS RISKS FOREXISTING INDUSTRIESIN THE UNITED STATESCOMPARED TO PROJECTIONS FOR THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY
Industry
Millions
of Workers
Millions
of Workdays Lost
Fatalities a
Petroleum
0.6
0.6
n.a.
Automotive
3.6
1.8
n.a.
Mining
0.8
0.9
400
Construction
3.6
3.7
800
19.0
15.0
1100
0.6
60-250
Manufacturing Projected for Diesel Reference Industry a
(20% LDV) 0.6
n.a. indicates that the statistics statisticsin the table.
workers in the future
diesel
automobile manufacturing, The diesel light lost
reference
duty vehicles annually
reference
which includes
industry
is projected
petroleum workers and workers in
to grow in the next 15 years until
in the United States are diesel
in this for
industry
in a form that is comparable to the other
sales and service.
industry
to 250 per year. These projected and projected
are not available
after
powered. The estimated number of workdays
1995 is 600,000 and the estimated number of fatalities
risks
the general public
20% of the
are much greater to date related
than the risks
that
to the use of diesel
is 60
have been identified
vehicles.
Because these
risks
to workers in the diesel
vehicle
industries,
the total
would be 5 times those listed 1200 fatalities
annually.
reference
industry
occupational
risks
are projected
from the existing
for the entire
light
in Table ES-2 for 1995; about 3 million
These estimates
were manufactured but only if
the total
would not be changed if
number of light
duty
industries
workdays lost
different
duty vehicles
light
duty vehicle
and 300 to
types of vehicles
changed.
Waste Oil Produced by Diesel Vehicles Waste crankcase oil quantity
of waste oil
projected
produced by automobile
number of diesel
crankcase oil duced by all
will
vehicles
of the light
of waste oil
after
duty vehicles very little
from light
cate that the mass of waste oil emissions.
1995, 34 million,
Evaluation
not only for diesel
produced will
jected
that will
more information
Thus, further from all
studies
related
be pro-
to collecting
given in this on potential
of these risks
and
report
indi-
particulate exposure pathmay be needed,
vehicles.
be released in producing diesel
toxic
pollutants
pollution
gases and the particulate
in densely populated
concern because they contain
diesel-related
will
from the Diesel Reference Industry
mainly on the potentially these occur primarily
risks
be about 5 times the mass of diesel require
wastes, but for waste oil
Pollutants
A large For the
tons of waste
tons of waste oil
However, projections
may only be a small part of the environmental
have raised
about 300,000 metric
is known about the health
duty vehicles.
of these hazards will
Atmospheric pollutants vehicles
substances.
in the United States.
ways and the magnitudes of human exposures.
Environmental
carcinogenic
be produced each year. About 1,500,000 metric
At the present time, disposing
engines contains
is produced each year and is removed during automobile servicing.
fuel
or from driving
problem. This report
emissions of the diesel
urban areas. The particles
mutagenic and carcinogenic
emitted
focused
vehicles
by diesel
diesel because vehicles
compounds. Examples of pro-
are shown in Table ES-3 along with current
levels
of some impor-
tant atmospheric pollutants.
TABLEES-3 EXAMPLES OF GASEOUS ANDPARTICULATEEMISSIONSINTO THE ENVIROMENT FROMPETROLEUM REFINERIES, DIESEL VEHICLESANDPOINT SOURCES Thousands of tons per year Pollutant
Point Sources 1975
Refineries 1975
Diesel LDV 1995
Refineries Producing LDV Diesel Fuel 1995
Nitrogen Oxides
9OOO
56O
36O
4O
Hydrocarbons
7000
410
150
30
Carbon Monoxide
30,000
17,000
520
1200
Particulates
15,000
300
60
20
Pyrene
0.6
0.02
Benzo(a)pyrene
0.7
0.0007
Of the total
nitrogen
oxides,
vapor phase hydrocarbons and particulates
sources in 1975, petroleum refineries about 50% of the total
into
with particles
emissions from future
the environment if
particulate
emissions,
diesels
related
the environment.
diesel
gasoline
engine vehicles.
and supplying
risks
for people.
They will
increase
the
hydrocarbons
petroleum fuels have severe local
In 1975, about 70,000 tons of petroleum was spilled
This will
crankcase oil
to carcinogenic
probably not change the gaseous emissions
emissions.
to supplying
fuel
for road transport.
about 5,000 tons of petroleum will
fuel.
will
simply~replace
to transporting
30,000 tons can be related vehicles,
vehicles
are examples
however, but only by less than 1%. This is also true for
associated with the particle Oil spills
Pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene
that may contribute
diesel
emitted from point
between 2% and 6%. They also contributed
carbon monoxide released.
hydrocarbons associated Projected
contributed
be spilled
be about 7% of the total
which is also an environmental
impacts on
in the environment.
For the future
diesel
About
light
duty
in the environment while producing the
petroleum spilled,
but only about 2% of the waste
concern.
The Impact of Diesel Emissions on Atmospheric Quality Photochemical gases that will projected
reached in simulation future
studies
light
the environment from diesel
atmospheric pollution
of atmospheric
emissions from 20% diesel
control
be released into
to cause major changes in future
pollution
duty vehicles
in the photochemical reactants
Atmospheric concentrations major cities densities
in this
of particles
and vehicle
densities
most areas of the United States, is felt
closed garages, these risks
air
quality
much less,
were
vehicles
were projected
dispersion
for all
model. Population and
that with 20% diesel light duty vehicles the only about 0.2 ug/m3 over the existing levels, 30
emissions are expected to add little However, it
Bay Area. When the
the current
model along with average weather conditions
particulate pollution would increase to 100 ug/nl 3. Other results are shown in Table ES-4 for
served.
was
This model predicted
average city diesel
into
of up to 5%, but usually
emitted by diesel
were used in this
distributions.
are not
area.
in the United States using a second environmental
urban population
vehicles
This conclusion
in the San Francisco were introduced
model for the San Francisco Bay Area, increases
projected
levels.
their
to the existing
health
areas like
further
levels
and environmental
that in specific require
large cities
and rural
areas. Because
of particulate
risks
pollutants
are not likely
congested city
street
in
to be ob-
canyons and en-
evaluation.
HumanHealth Risks from Future Diesel Emissions People may be exposed to diesel gestion
of the particulates
after
vehicle
emissions by inhalation
deposition
on surfaces.
cles that could be inhaled or ingested by the total
of the exhausts and by in-
The projected
U. S. population
amounts of diesel
These amounts are also compared with the exposures of people to urban pollutants of cigarette particles
smoke. This comparison shows that
parti-
are summarized in Table ES-5. and to components
the amounts added by exposures to diesel
exhaust
are small.
Further comparisons were made between these exposures and the exposures of workers to coke oven emissions. related risks.
to their
Lung cancer risk
The highest
cancer risk
model, was then used to obtain diesel
particulate
estimators
exposures to particulates
emissions.
factor
were obtained
for each exposed group and these were
and the benzo(a)pyrene taken as indicators
from each model, the benzo(a)pyrene
a high estimate
of the lung cancer risks
This approach indicated
that diesel
to cause less than 30 lung cancers per year in the United States. when compared to the 90,000 lung cancer deaths that result Table ES-6. 4
of the
model and the particle
to people exposed to
emissions after
1995 are likely
This additional
risk
is small
from other causes each year as shown in
TABLE ES-4 ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF SOMEPOLLUTANTS CURRENTLY EXISTING IN RURALANDURBAN AREASOF THE UNITED STATESAND PROJECTIONS FORDIESEL VEHICLESIN THE FUTURE
3) Air
Added Contributions Average City
Current Levels Urban Particulates
Concentrations
100
u~Im from 20% Diesel LDV Highest City
0.2
2
Pyrene
0.004
0.00006
0.0006
Benzo(a)pyrene
0.005
0.000002
0.00002
Rural Particulates
30
0.02
Pyrene
0.001
0.000006
Benzo(a)pyrene
0.001
0.0000002
TABLE ES-5 PROJECTED AMOUNTS OF AIRBORNEPARTICLESAND CONSTITUENT HYDROCARBONS THAT ARE INHALEDOR INGESTED ANNUALLY IN THE U. S. POPULATION FROMATMOSPHERIC POLLUTANTS, CIGARETTESMOKE~ ANDEXHAUSTS FROM20% DIESEL VEHICLESIN THE FUTURE Atmospheric Pollutants Inhalation
Projected Diesel
(grams deposited per year)
Particles
Ingestion
Smokers
35,000,000
3~800~000~000
60~000
Benz(a)anthracene
1,100
6~000
2
Pyrene
1,500
Benzo(a)pyrene
1,600
i0,000 2,000
18 0.7
(grams ingested per year)
Particles
6DO,O00~O00
1,000,000
Benz(a)anthracene
20,000
34
Pyrene
30~000
290
Benzo(a)pyrene
30~000
12
5
TABLEES-6 NUMBER OF FATALITIES DUETO VARIOUSCAUSESIN THE U.S. POPULATION Annual Number of Fatalities All
Causes (1976) All
1,900,000
Cancers
380,000
Lung Cancer
90,000
Lung Cancer in Nonsmokers a Projected
Fatalities
7,000
Attributable
to Diesel LDV
Diesei Reference Industry Upper Limit
for Lung Cancer
aAssuming 20% of the light
No estimates diesel
are given in this
3O
duty vehicles
report
for
are diesel
of the risks
mation on the absorption
from ingesting
diesel
of potentially
powered.
the health risks
emissions because other sources of these gases will
no estimates will
60-250
particles
from exposures to toxic
overwhelm the diesel
gases i~
emissions.
Also,
are given because of the lack of infor-
harmful compounds from the gastrointestinal
tract.
It
also be necessary to know how long these compounds remain in the environment and accumulate
in urban dusts. The health
risk
evaluation
person are very small. street
given in this
However, this
concerns will
Of particular
may be seriously
be examined in greater
indicates
may not be true
canyons in large urban centers.
diseases whose condition
report
detail
affected
that future
for people who live
risks
for the average
in congested city
concern are people with existing by increased
in future
reports
exposures to toxic
from this
respiratory
gases. These
research project.
SECTIONI INTRODUCTION This assessment has been prepared for the Office
of Health and Environmental
Research of the
United States Department of Energy. Several other government agencies or departments and a committee of the National potential
Academy of Sciences-National
impacts of future
increases
assessment has taken different responsibilities
The goal of this
report
of light
vehicles
duty diesel
vehicles
simple comparison of risks extensive
evaluation
of the pollutants personal
mobiles and mass transit portation
related
including
related
technologies
vehicle
whenever possible, vehicles
this
related
to the use A
would not require
an
manufacturing
and service long-term
automobiles,
of in-
engine vehicles.
However, other
the use of electric
engines in light
(Code of Federal Regulations gasoline
reduction
or of all
options
for
hydrogen fueled auto-
assessment provides an
that is independent of other trans-
in the average gasoline
that smaller
vehicles
1980). Other viable
short-term
1985 of 27.5 miles per
options
vehicle
sizes.
include
re-engineering
Between 1965 and
engine automobiles
8 and 7 km/l)
in a 26%
mileage of passenger cars operated in the United States (Con-
advances are reversing
this
could be produced to meet future
size gasoline
per gallon (II, Protection
may provide a means for automobile
that were necessary to meet new emission standards resulted
1977). New engineering
and full
duty vehicles
spark engine and reducing’overall
1975, engine modifications
trend.
fuel
are currently
It
is also generally
economy requirements.
reported
accepted
Small, medium
to achieve 27, 19 and 17 miles
in normal highway use (Consumer Reports 1980, U. S. Environmental
Agency 1980).
The Department of Energy is responsible acceptable,
energy efficient
program to aid in evaluating scientific
the health
information,
for evaluating
technologies.
assessment provides such an evaluation current
risks
for using gasoline
to meet the Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirement for
a more efficient
mentally
Many of the health
supply,
duty diesel
of changes that could occur
to human health as a result
to the environment.
from using light
Increased use of diesel
sidine
Each
with the
options or energy technologies.
manufacturers gallon
to fuel
systems. Therefore,
of the risks
projections
to the risks
between these two closely
exist,
vehicles.
goals that are consistent
and in the risks
in the United States.
that may be released
transportation
estimation
pollutants are similar
of risks
duty diesel
the
organization.
is to provide quantitative
of environmental
creased use of diesel
and use of light
approaches and has different
of the supporting
in the levels
in production
Research Council are also evaluatlng
risks
of existing
of the potential
and will
and encouraging the use of environ-
The Department also supports and developing future
help to identify
technologies.
impacts of diesel
important
a large
research
This
engines, using
new directions
for
the Depart-
ment of Energy research programs. The health defined
and environmental
reference
industry.
effects
of future
Within practical
of the energy technology from production
light
limits,
duty vehicles
the reference
of the fuel
to the ultimate
have been evaluated for a
industry disposal
includes of all
all
aspects
waste pro-
ducts. It also includes the manufacture and service of products and facilities that are necessary to support the use of light duty diesel vehicles in the United States. In total, the assessment evaluates the health and environmental use of light duty diesel vehicles. Future health and fatality
risks
costs of operating
to workers in the diesel
records reported
for similar
the reference
reference
industries
industry
industry
and of public
are estimated from accident
as they operate today.
Because the petroleum
and automobile industries produce a wide variety of products, only a portion of their total industrial accident risks should be used toproject the future costs of manufacturing and operating light duty diesel vehicles. These societal costs are scaled to the numberof diesel vehicles that will be manufactured and the total public use of light duty diesel vehicles as indicated in Figure I-I.
Light Duty Vehicle Manufacturing
Petroleum Transport and Refining
Vehicle Service and Repair
Current Health and Environmental Effects per Unit Supplied
Future Requirements of the Diesel Reference Industry
Human Health Risks
Environmental Risks
Figure I-i. Approach Used to Estimate the Future Health and Environmental Risks for the Projected Diesel Reference Industry. Numerouschemical pollutants will be released to the environment as a result of producing, servicing and driving light duty diesel vehicles. The most publicized environmental impacts from using any petroleum products are the spills that occur in their transport. Other significant changes mayoccur in the environmental levels of pollutants that are released from refineries or from driving diesel vehicles. These mayreduce atmospheric visibility, have unpleasant odors and otherwise make congested urban centers less desirable. Therefore, this report and future reports will estimate the potential magnitude of the changes in particulate pollution, photochemical reactants and other noxious and toxic chemical substances related to the use of diesel vehicles or the operations of the diesel reference industry. Newor increased health risks mayalso occur for the general public as a result of the detrimental environmental impacts from using diesel vehicles. Diesel engines are similar to gasoline engines in their releasing a variety of noxious gases into the environment, but they produce more
8
particulate emissions. The noxious gases maynot reach toxic levels in the open atmospherebut, in areas with poor air exchange, they could reach levels that can cause respiratory functional diseases after prolonged exposures. The particles emitted are small enough to be inhaled by people. They also contain polycyclic organic matter that has been shownto be mutagenic in in vitro cell systems and carcinogenic in studies with laboratory animals. The total magnitudes of these health risks will depend upon the levels of humanexposures, their duration, the numbersof individuals exposed and on the humanresponse to these exposures. The approach taken in evaluating the potential magnitudes of the health risks from exposures of people to toxic chemicals is illustrated in Figure 1-2. For each pollutant source, it is necessary to develop relationships betweenthe amounts released, their concentrations in the environment, their uptake by people and the potential health effects. This is generally done through mathematical simulation models. In somecases the model projections can be validated with previous observations of the environmental transport and humanexposures to the sameor similar compoundsthat have been released from other sources. Environmental measurementsof carbon monoxide and lead released from automobiles provide good surrogate models of atmospheric transport for pollutants released from mobile sources. Surrogate models are also used in determining relationships betweenexposure levels and organ doses and in determining dose-effect relationships. Studies in laboratory animals and in vitro cell systems and epidemiological studies in cigarette smokershave also provided useful surrogate models.
Direct Observations and Surrogate Models
Pollutant Source 1
Atmospheric Dispersion Models ~"
\
Pollutant Levels
[Environmental \ Dosimetry Models
HumanLevelsEXposure .... ] ExposureEffects Models
\
Health Effects
Figure I-2. Approach Used in Estimating the Health Risks from Exposures of People to Toxic Chemicals in the Environment.
9
Work on this
diesel
vehicle
health and environmental
risk
assessment has been in progress for
one year. The main emphasis has been on: i.
identifying
worker risks
2. estimating
exposure levels
3. evaluating
the potential
for
the diesel
reference
industry,
to the general
public
using light
health
consequences for inhaled
Further study is needed to evaluate the fate of pol’lutants estimate native
potential
effects
dose-effect
from ingesting
diesel
models from ongoing studies
duty diesel
diesel
vehicles,
exhaust particles.
released from petroleum refineries,
emissions after
with laboratory
and
deposition
to
and to develop alter-
animals and with in vitro
cell
systems. This report ments of physical traditional
states
all
quantities
English
units
are given in Appendix C.
physical in units
measurements in metric that are unfamiliar
are also provided.
units.
Because this
to many people,
Conversion factors
results
in state-
in some places the more
between metric
and English units
SECTION II THEDIESELREFERENCE INDUSTRY To summarizethe future health and environmental risks that can be related to increased use of light duty diesel vehicles, it is necessary to identify all of the industrial activities that are needed to support their use by the general public. This includes automobile manufacturing, fuel production and distribution, and general automobile repair and servicing. The diesel reference industry and public use of diesel vehicles used as a basis for this report are illustrated in Figure II-I. Evaluation of the health and environmental risks for industries listed to the right of the vertical line are considered to be beyond reasonable limits for this assessment. Activities or industries listed above the horizontal line are considered to be worker risks and are estimated from occupational accident and fatality records for previous years as illustrated in Figure I-I. Public use of diesel vehicles and the related environmental and health effects listed below the horizontal line are estimated through the use of mathematical models representing the physical, chemical and biological relationships summarizedin Figure I-2.
DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY i III )
I)
Oil Exploration and Drilling
~
Oil Transport
Automobile Manufacturing
I:
1
uelTransport
F m
II
n
i
II
II
i ! _-
. . Refining
Wastes~
Energy and w Materials
Illl
!
immillln~ill~
Public Use of Diesel Vehicles
1
Vehicle Emissions
1
Service Waste Products
i II
i
Figure II-I. The Diesel Reference Industry Used for Estimating Health and Environmental Effects.
11
Future Growth of the Reference Industry To estimate future expected public
growth of the diesel
use of light
duty diesel
reference
vehicles.
industry,
Ideally,
projections
must be made for the
these would include
reliable
pro-
jections of future diesel vehicle sales, the t~pes of vehicles sold, their fuel economy, and the annual kilometers traveled by the different types of light duty diesel vehicles. Each of these projections vehicle
is complex because they depend greatly
design,
competing gasoline
also depend upon fuel
fuel
omic advantages or disadvantages jections
vehicle
availability,
engines for light
cies are making equally differences
diverse
Projections imposed by fuel
of future refinery
vehicles.
projections
use of diesel
processes.
fuel
(International
processes can not be changed greatly
is to be made available
is the uncertainty Diesel vehicles
concern for the limits
in the United States con-
and 21% into
middle distillate
gas oil
~nd diesel
50% was used as home heating oil.
fuel
Because petroleum
to vary the amounts of the output products without
(U. S. Environmental
and consumption patterns use in light
Protection
Agency 1974), changes will
of middle distillate
duty vehicles.
fuel
difficulty
encountered in projecting
about the size distribution
generally
given in kilometers
attain
per liter
contains
For example, diesel
and fuel
higher fuel
oil
if
more diesel
These changes could affect
fuel fuel
sizes of vehicles.
All
of these options vehicles
fuel
light
than gasoline
than gasoline.
ways to help meet future
in the larger
diesel
consumption rates duty vehicles.
engine vehicles
when
Diesel engines have higher efficiencies
and
Automobile manufacturers
can
Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements.
engines could be used predominantly
gains may be available
future
economy of future
economy ratings
or miles per gallon.
about 15% more energy per liter
use these gains in different in all
gasoline
These
consumer prices and consumer attitudes.
Another significant
diesel
while
for future
approach-
government agen-
assessment.
Energy Agency 1980). Only 27% of the gas oil
was used in road transport
availability,
risk
Between 1975 and 1978, refineries
cost and energy penalties
in these pro-
are taking different
engines can not be made without
refining
necessary in the production
involved
and that different
health and environmental
fraction incurring
They will
of the personal econ-
depending upon the focus of each evaluation.
verted 41% of the processed crude petroleum into and diesel
The uncertainties
of the future
options.
perception
major automobile manufacturers
in this
advances in diesel
design and other transportation
duty vehicles
can not be reconciled
technological
costs and the public’s
of diesel
are so large that different
es in designing
upon future
in light
vehicles,
full
size vehicles
or
would serve the same purpose but the greatest with heavier
engines that have been mechanically
reliable. Because of these difficulties industry, diesel total
this
vehicle distance
health
production traveled
equal to the current the base level levels. by future health
duty diesel
vehicles.
for
a convenient
of diesel
vehicle
diesel
at the present time.
This level
that would result
from simulating industry
stock and
This is approximately
the impacts of higher use sales,
stock and dismay be restrained
The small changes in the projected
reference
duty
is expected to increase but
to estimate
use is 20% of the total
fuel.
growth rates for these parameters of the diesel complication
multiplier
vehicles.
could be reached before the year 2000 but this
supplying
effects
to diesel
reference
of light
is to assume that 2% of the sales,
pertain
provides
The higher level
and environmental
accurate growth rates in the diesel
assessment is based upon two levels
duty vehicles
use of light
calculation
capabilities
risk
and use. The base level by light
The assumed high level
tance traveled.
in projecting
and environmental
levels
of
time dependent differential do not justify
this
uncertain
The Department of Energy Draft (1979) projects
that by 1995 there will
United States and they will ment Plan also projects For purposes of this hicles
will
fuel
travel
that light
report,
fleet
with 20% diesel
of 170 million
light
duty vehicles
in the
3 x 1012 km per year. The Environmental sales will
average fuel
be about 13 million
efficiency
10 km/l or 15 km/l. engines will
Light Duty Diesel Vehicles
of future
light
vehicles
34 to 50 million
per year.
duty diesel
Using these assumptions,
require
Developve-
the future
light
metric tons of diesel
each year. In 1978, 167 million
States (International would require industrial
metric tons of gas oil
Energy Agency 1980). The increased
fuel
needs. On the other hand, if the gasoline
use of diesel
require
fuel
no additional
vehicles
of the light
per year above the 1978 levels.
in fuel
duty vehicle
fleet
if
above
there were no and
economy are met by auto-
duty vehicle
fleet
after
1995 would
This balance and the restrictions
processes described in Appendix A suggest that an upper level
in the light
projected
fuel,
or other competing transportation
the mandated increases
engine portion
were consumed in the United
of middle distillate
or decreases in the use of home heating oils
mobile manufacturers, refinery
and diesel
a 20% to 30% increase in the production
other increases
oil
duty vehicle
the fleet
Development Plan for
be a total
approximately
be assumed to be either
duty vehicle
Environmental
of 20% diesel
on
vehicles
is realistic.
Federal Emissions Standards Another important influence
of future
factor
in projecting
the growth of the diesel
government exhaust emission standards. emission levels
but may require
important
industry
Some of the current
exhaust emission standards are given in Table 11-1. Diesel light the 1980 regulated
reference
is the
and proposed
duty vehicles
are able to meet
changes to meet the proposed future
regulated emission levels. The major difficulties are likely to come in meeting the proposed NO x and particulate standards for 1985 and later. For purposes of this assessment, calculations will be performed assuming that these regulations other vehicle Section II
parameters,
will
be met without
causing significant
changes in
such as average fuel consumption and emissions of other pollutants.
Summary
A summary of parameters for projecting be used in the subsequent sections calculations
including
two levels
be carried
through this
of this of diesel
the growth of the diesel report
reference
industry
is given in Table 11-2. As indicated,
vehicle
use and two different
fuel
efficiencies
report. TABLE11-1
CURRENT ANDPROPOSED FUTUREEMISSIONSSTANDARDS FOR DIESEL ANDGASOLINEENGINELIGHT DUTYVEHICLES(in
g/km)
Model Year
Nitrogen Oxides
Carbon Monoxide
Hydrocarbons
1980
1.25
4.3
0.25
1981
0.6
2.1
0.25
1982
0.6
2.1
0.25
0.37
1985 and
0.6
2.1
0.25
0.12
Particles
after Reference:
that will
Clean Air Act as AmendedAugust 1977 (Public Law 9595), Standard for Emission of Particulate, Regulation for Diesel-Fueled Light-Duty Vehicles and Light Duty Trucks, 45 FR 14496, March 5, 1980.
four
base
will
TABLE11-2 SUMMARY OF THE ASSUMED PARAMETER VALUESFORPROJECTING THE GROWTH OF THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRYANDPUBLIC USE OF DIESEL VEHICLESAFTER1995 Low Percent of light duty vehicles that are diesel Fuel efficiency
2% 10 to 15 km/l
High 20% 10 to 15 km/l
Total light duty vehicle travel in U.S.
3 x 1012 km/yr
3 x 1012 km/yr
Total diesel vehicle travel in U.S.
6 x 1010 km/yr
6 x 1011 km/yr
Diesel fuel required Total light vehicles
3.4 x 106 to 5 x 106 t 34 x 106 to 50 x 106 t
duty
1.7 x 108
1.7 x 108
Light duty diesel vehicles
3.4 x 106
3.4 x 107
Total annual sales of light duty vehicles
1.3 x 107
1.3 x 107
Annual sales of light duty diesel vehicles
2.6 x 105
2.6 x 106
SECTIONIII HEALTHRISKS FOR WORKERS IN THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY Health risks and fatality
records that are available
United States. of diesel
for workers in the future
diesel
reference
fuel,
(b) manufacture of automobiles, duty vehicles.
diesel
industry
reference
In this
is limited
are estimated from accident
for the present petroleum and automobile industries
The data are presented in three categories
use of the light
industry
related
to (a) production
and (c) road service
report,
and maintenance for public
assessment of the future
to estimates
in the
and delivery
worker risks
of the number of work related
for the
fatalities
and
workdays lost. Current Industrial
Accident and Fatality
The numbers of workers currently their
workdays lost
due to accidents
Records
employed in the automobile and petroleum industries or illnesses
obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Department of Labor 1977, 1979) and it numbers of workdays lost accidents trial
occur.
divisions
are given in Table III-i.
applies
to private
are provided in detailed
because fewer fatalities
This information
occur.
industries
categories
for
fatalities
work-related
only for eight fatalities
ACCIDENTRISKS FORTHE PETROLEUM ANDAUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES, REPORTED FOR 1976 OR ESTIMATEDFROMUNITEDSTATESDEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU a OF LABORSTATISTICS (1977,1979) Millions of Workdays Lost
Estimated Fatalities
Petroleum Extraction
411,700
0.555
Transport
17,600
0.004
157,500
0.075
586,800
0.634
Assembly
407,700
0.192
Parts and Accessories
528,000
0.376
Sales
1,147,300
0.482
Total
2,083,000
1.050
Service Stations
627,200
0.236
Repair and Service
798,500
0.589
79,400
0.055
1,505,100
0.880
Refining Total
60-250
Automobile Manufacturing and Sales
105-420
Automobile Service and Repair
Public Taxis Total
90-350
asimilar statistics are available from the American Petroleum Institute (1980a, 1980b), however, the reported accident and fatality rates are considerably lower than those reported by the U. S. Department of Labor.
time
indus-
for the pe-
given in Table 111-1 are estimated.
Employment
1976. The
because large numbers of lost
work-related Therefore,
as reported
TABLE111-1
Industry
was
of the United States Department of Labor (U. S.
The Department of Labor reports
troleum and automotive industries
and
To estimate
the risks
of fatalities
the Department of Labor’s number of fatalities
eight
divisions
in each category per million
sions that were similar as listed
lost
data from
were compiled as given in Table 111-2. The
workdays lost
was tabulated.
to the petroleum and automotive industries
and 400 deaths per million workdays lost,
for the petroleum and automotive industries,
industrial
workdays. ~herefore,
this
Industrial
had fatality
divi-
rates between i00
range of fatalities
was used with the
in Table 111-1, to estimate the annual work related
fatalities.
TABLE111-2 INDUSTRIALACCIDENTANDMORTALITYRATESREPORTED BY THE UNITEDSTATESDEPARTMENT OF LABOR(1977, 1979)
Industry
Agriculture, Fishing
Millions of Workers 1976
Division
Forestry
Thousands of Fatalities 1975 1976
Millions of Workdays Lost 1975 1976
Fatalities per Million Workdays Lost 1975 1976
and 1.0
0.3
0.2
1.0
0.83
300
240
Mining
0.78
0.4
0.4
0.84
0.89
480
450
Construction
3.6
1.0
0,8
3.5
3.7
290
220
Manufacturing
19.0
1.2
1.1
14.0
15.0
86
70
4,5
1.0
0.8
4.0
4,3
250
190
18.0
0.9
0,6
6.7
7.6
130
80
4.1
0.1
-
0.48
0.48
210
Services
14.0
0,4
0.6
4.4
5.4
90
110
Total or Average
64.7
5.3
4,5
35,6
39.1
150
120
Transportation and Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
Approximately from foreign
one-half
countries
only for industries related incurred
of the petroleum used in the United States during 1979 was imported
(Table 111-3).
to supplying
all
by people working in foreign risks
The long-term et al.
risk
statistics
projected
countries. years,
If
reported
do not reflect
of the petroleum products used in this
in the United States changes in future in the total
The accident
in the United States and, therefore,
country.
accident
risks
Some of these risks
the imported fraction
changes will
in Table 111-1 apply
the total
are
of the petroleum used
also occur in the number of workers and
for these industries.
health risks
(1980) and Hanis et al.
for workers in petroleum refineries (1979).
Results of their
studies
were studied by Schottenfeld
of refinery
States and Canada are summarized in Table 111-4. The percentages of all
workers in the United
males in the United
States that die from the listed causes are also included in Table 111-4 (U.S. Health Statistics 1978). These populations have different age distributions, they apply to different time periods and the total
male population
includes
many unemployed individuals.
Therefore,
only approximate
comparisons can be made between these groups. However, because there are no outstanding ences in the causes of death among the three populations, workers are projected not available
at present for the future
for the automobile manufacturing
diesel
no long-term reference
or servicing
health risks
industry.
industries.
differ-
for refinery
Comparable studies
are
TABLE 111-3 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION, IMPORTSANDREFININGIN THE UNITED STATES (in Product Crude oil
million
metric tons)
1975
1976
1977
411
401
406
23
25
21
- imports
248
304
372
- exports
-1
- stocks
- U. S. wells - other sources
0
-3
-i
-2
-7
Crude oil
- total
680
728
789
Refining
- diesel
137
153
164
287
301
309
678
727
789
- gasoline total Reference: International
Energy Agency 1980.
TABLE111-4 DISTRIBUTIONOF DEATHSIN MALEPETROLEUM REFINERYWORKERS AND IN THE TOTALMALEPOPULATION OF THE UNITEDSTATES U. S. Refinery a Workers
Cause of Death Malignant neoplasms
Canadian Refinery Workersb
U.S. Male PopulationC
25.1%
19.9%
20%
Diseases of the circulatory
system
52.5%
59.9%
50%
Diseases of the respiratory
system
6.5%
6.0%
6%
3.2%
3.4%
5%
6.9%
3,9%
10%
5.8%
6.9%
9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Diseases of the digestive Accidents, All
poisonings
system
and violence
other causes TOTAL
TOTAL FATALITIES 434 References;
a,
Schottenfeld
et al. 1980.
b.
Hanis et al.
1979.
C.
U. S. Health Statistics,
1978.
1511
1,1 x 106
Worker Risks for the Projected Worker risks accident
used to project manufacturing diesel
for
statistics
fuel,
the projected for
the 1995 industry and repair,
For each million
risks
reference
industry
and for diesel
metric
were different
automobile service. vehicles
and vehicle
after
1995 were estimated
tons of refined
for the petroleum industries,
for
Worker risk
to supplying
servicing
in Table 11-2) to predict
estimates
and repair
related
automobile
given in Table 111-5
petroleum products in 1976, there were approximately Assuming that each metric
can be assigned an equal share of the worker risks, by the fuel
from the
procedures that were
methods.
and 0.08 to 0.34 fatalities.
were multiplied
jected
risks
using the following
870 workdays lost leum products
diesel
1975 and 1976 as given in Table 111-1. The scaling
constructing
were calculated
Diesel Reference Industr~
required
by the diesel
the workdays lost
reference
and fatalities
ton of refined
petro-
these rates for worker accident industry related
after
1995 (as pro-
to diesel
fuel
supply
as shown in Table 111-5. Approximately
9 million
light
in 1976. Using the accident
risks
to 45 fatalities diesel
light
for each million
duty vehicles
duty vehicles
were manufactured and sold in the United States
given in Table 111-1, there were 120,000 workdays lost vehicles
produced. Multiplying
expected to be produced each year after
and 12
these rates by the numbers of 1995 gives the projected
risks
for automobile manufacturing shown in Table 111-5.
TABLE111-5 PROJECTED WORKDAYS LOST ANDFATALITIES FORTHE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRYAFTER1995 Fuel Economy Societal 10 km/l
Cost Branch
Workdays Lost
Estimated Fatalities
2% Diesel Vehicles
Petroleum Supply
4,400
Vehicle ~anufacturing
31,200
Vehicle Service
26,200
Petroleum Supply
0.5-1.7
Vehicle
Manufacturing
Vehicle Service 15 km/l
Workdays Lost
Estimated Fatalities
Petroleum Supply
3-12
20% Diesel Vehicles 44,000
62,000
312,000 262,000
4-17 6-25
30-120
2."7-11
27-105
2,900
29,000
Vehicle Manufacturing
31,200
Vehicle Service
26,200
262,000
Petroleum Supply
0.3-1.1
3-11
Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle Service
3-12 2.7-11
18
620,000
60,00O
6-24
312,000
30-120 27-105
60-240
620,000
60-240
In 1976, about 114 million that year, 7700 lost service
risks
duty vehicles
were registered
workdays and 0.8 to 3.1 fatalities
of each million
mobile service
light
vehicles
reference
Summary of the Health Risk Projections Industry After 1995 The summary of worker risk
could be attributed
that were operated.
for the diesel
after
will
be related
for the light
diesel
vehicles.
I0 km/l and 15 km/lo For the higher projected ties
and 600,000 workdays lost
lower projected attributed total
duty diesel
As before,
level
could be attributed
reference
duty vehicle
two fuel
of diesel
fleet
efficiencies
vehicles,
to the reference
industry
given in
and vehicle were assumed,
about 50 to 250 fatali-
industry
each year. For the
vehicles,
about 5 to 25 fatalities
and 60,000 workdays lost
to the use of diesel
vehicles.
Because fuel
contributes
worker health
projected
risks,
worker health
changes in vehicle
risks.
buted to automobile construction
Almost two-thirds
and one-third
production fuel
efficiency
of the projected
to the service
Only the risks
related
to the light
Table 111-5. For higher levels use of gasoline
of diesel
engine vehicles,
same. Using these assumptions, by a factor
vehicle
the total
the risks
vehicle
reference
of diesel
projected
number of light
summarized in Table 111-5 for
related
worker risks
for
to the use of both gasoline
construction
and diesel
and use of heavy duty diesel
19/20
upon the
are attri-
vehicles.
from work-related
industry
related
duty vehicles 20% diesel
to the
remains the
vehicles
in the entire light
acci-
are given in
use, there would be lower risks
of 5 to obtain an estimate of the worker risks
and petroleum industries are included
if
duty diesel
effect
worker risks
and repair
were
less than 10% of
have little
Presently, no account is taken of the worker disabilities that may result dents or illnesses. This risk will be discussed in future reports.
be multiplied
the auto-
1995 as shown in Table 111-5.
of diesel
the projected
level
and
for Workers in the Diesel Reference
projections
to light
Over
to the repair
These rates were used to project
industry
Table 111-5 assumes that 2% or 20% of the sales and of the light travel
in the United States.
automotive
duty vehicles.
vehicles.
can No
SECTIONIV ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSOF THE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY Some of the important light ful
duty diesel
environmental
vehicles
effects
are discussed in this
section.
from future
These relate
increased use of
to the potentially
substances that may be released to the environment from petroleum transportation,
refining,
vehicle
servicing
and from public
use of diesel
amounts of a few of these substances that will their
possible
effects will
that may result
concentrations
on plant-life
in populated
vehicles.
Estimates
harm-
petroleum
are made of the
be released to the environment and, in some cases,
areas. However, no quantitative
or on animals can be made at this
time.
projections
The potential
of their
human health
effects
be discussed in Section VII.
Petroleum Spills
in Transportation
The most publicized, accidents
of large crude carriers;
The probabilities national
effects
of spills
of using petroleum fuels are the oil but even minor spills
occurring
in the transport
basis for 1975 (GKY and Associates
in the future,
related
data in the following
to producing diesel manner. The ratio
of petroleum transported diesel
Accidents
fuel
that will
assumed that 2% or 20% of the light efficiency
from
in small regions. on a
1976). The amount of petroleum that could be spilled fuel
for light
This ratio
by light
can be detrimental
that result
of petroleum products are reported
of the metric
was calculated.
be required
spills
was estimated from these
tons of petroleum spilled
was then multiplied
duty diesel
duty vehicles
duty vehicles,
vehicles
were diesel
after
per metric
by the metric
tons of
1995. As before,
and that the fleet
ton
it
was
average fuel
was i0 km/l or 15 km/l.
The resulting marine transport environment.
projections
of petroleum spills
are expected to result
Next in order are spills
are listed
in the largest
in Table IV-1.
Spills
related
amounts of petroleum released to the
from onshore storage facilities
and pipelines.
TABLEIV-1 OIL SPILLS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIESEL USAGE (tons per year) 2% Diesel Vehicles 10 km/l 15 km/l
20% Diesel Vehicles 10 km/l 15 km/l
Marine transport, within 320 km of U.S. coast
230
150
2300
Marine transport,
70
50
72O
480
7
5
70
5O
Marine facilities,
inland inland
1500
Transport
onshore
30
20
320
210
Transport
by pipeline
70
50
700
460
20
10
170
120
3
2
30
20
90
60
89O
59O
Bulk storage Refineries Onshore facilities
to
Spills
of petroleum that would occur outside of the coastal
not included
in Table IV-I.
in oceans at distances
Some of the environmental
greater
than 320 km and on foreign
the United States in the future
limits
of the United States are
impacts of petroleum transport soil.
Thus, if
in supplying
diesel
fuel
occur
more petroleum used in
is produced in the United States from tar
other sources, then the amounts spilled
will
sands, oil
in this
shale or
country may increase.
Refiner~ Emissions A summary of emissions of four important in the United States is given in Table IV-2. oxide released.
These make up about 50% of the total
monoxide released annually emitted
environmental
by automobiles.
in the United States.
The nitrogen
oxides,
pollutants
Most notable
from petroleum refineries
are the large amounts of carbon mon-
point
source releases
About 77% of the total
source emissions and 1% to 3% of the total
the refinery
emissions contribute
environment,
these occur at very localized
less than 10% of all sites
emissions are 2% to 6%
releases in the United States. emissions of these pollutants
and may have important
carbon
carbon monoxide is
hydrocarbons and particulate
of the point
and 8% of all
effects
Although
into
the
on the nearby
environment.
TABLE IV-2 EMISSIONSOF U.S. PETROLEUM REFINERIESIN 1975/76 Percent of All Point Source Emissionsa 1975 1976
a Quantity ,!nlillions of tons) 1975 1976
Emitted Pollutant
Relative Emissions (tons/ton of Refined Productl_ 1975 1975 Average
Nitrogen oxides
0.56
0.52
6
6
0.0008
0.0007
0.0008
Hydrocarbons
0.41
0.42
6
6
0.0006
0.0006
0.0006
45
49
0.0250
0.0220
0.0240
2
2
0.0004
0.0004
0.0004
Carbon monoxide
17.0
16.1
Particles
0.30
Petrol eum Refined
678
aReference:
U.S. Environmental
Refinery
0.29
727
emissions related
Protection
to supplying
average emissions per ton of refined fuel
that will
be seen later the vehicle will
report,
reference
the refinery
emissions but the nitrogen
diesel
fuel
after
petroleum were multiplied
be produced by the diesel in this
Agency, 1977.
industry
1995 are shown in Table IV-3.
to obtain these estimates.
emissions of carbon monoxide are likely
oxide, hydrocarbon and particulate
amount to less than 10% of the vehicle
emissions,
The
by the number of tons of diesel As will
to be equal to
emissions of refineries
TABLE IV-3 REFINERYEMISSIONSDUETO THE OPERATION OF LIGHT DUTY DIESEL VEHICLES(thousand tons) Fuel Economy
Emitted Pollutant
Percent Light 2%
10 km/l
Nitrogen oxides
4
40
Hydrocarbons
3
30
120
1200
Particles
2
20
Nitrogen oxides
3
30
Hydrocarbons
2
20
80"
800
i
15
Carbon monoxide
15 km/l
Carbon monoxide Particles
Duty Diesel Vehicles 20%
Automobile Services People who service that deposit
and repair
automobiles
have close contact
on automobile parts and in crankcase oils.
ical
carcinogens
oils
are recycled
that are discarded
with fuel
combustion products
These combustion products
with the old automobile parts
for other uses and the bulk of the carcinogenic
contain
chem-
and wastes, Some crankcase substances is likely
to be
found in the used engine crankcase oils. The annual amount of used crankcase oils requirements diesel
for future
vehicles
light
recommend oil
is between 4 and 7 liters
duty diesel
was calculated
vehicles.
as an estimate of the waste disposal
Currently,
manufacturers
changes every 8,000 to 12,000 km. The oil
depending upon the size of the vehicle.
of light
duty
removed with each change
Using these assumptions,
the
amounts of lubrication oils required annually by light duty diesel vehicles are listed in Table IV-4. The low values are for small size vehicles and the high values for large size vehicles. Thus, compared to the 60,000 tons of wastes emitted in vehicle this
Section,
about 5 times more waste mass will
require
exhausts,
as discussed later
handling and disposal
by automobile
service attendants.
TABLE IV-4 REQUIRED AMOUNTS OF LUBRICATINGOIL AND AMOUNTS OF WASTECRANKCASE OIL PROJECTED FORTHE DIESEL REFERENCE INDUSTRY Percent Diesel Vehicles
Lubricating Oil (thousand metric tons)
2%
20 - 50
20%
150 - 450
in
Exhaust Emissions From Liqht Duty Diesel Vehicles Typical
emissions from light
duty diesel
The measurements were made with production
vehicles
line
are summarized in Tables IV-5 and IV-6.
passenger cars mounted on dynamometers (Springer
and Baines 1977, Springer and Stahman 1977a, Braddock and Gabele 1977). Values for city highway driving
are averages of measurements taken during different
Measurements listed
in Table IV-5 include
samples. The values are given in units individual
polynuclear
are listed
in parts per million
particulate
standard driving
analyses of gases and vapors and of particle
of mass per unit
distance
traveled,
Measurements of
hydrocarbons given in Table IV-6 were obtained from particle of total
particle
mass. Further
emissions are being done at Lovelace ITRI,
Bartlesville
characterizations
samples and of diesel
Energy Technology Center and
TABLE IV-5 TYPICAL EMISSIONSFROMPRODUCTION LINE LIGHT DUTYDIESELS EconomySize ,LightDuty Diesel City Highway Fuel economy (km/l)
18
23
Full Size Light Duty Diesel City Highway 9
12
Gases and Vapors a Hydrocarbons (g/km)
0.25
0.09
0,47
0.24
Carbon monoxide (g/km)
0.50
0.33
1.24
0.71
Nitrogen oxides (g/km)
0.54
0.51
0.70
0.59
Sulfur
0.26
0,21
0.36
0,29
3,7
4,1
10,2
9.4
43
11
84
31
Alkanes (mg/km)
7.6
4.5
17
5.8
Alkenes (mg/km)
39
21
72
35
5.7
3.8
14
6.1
0.18
0.16
0.58
0.33
2.9
1.5
4.5
2.2
16
9
8
7
dioxide
Sulfates
(g/km)
(mg/km)
Aldehydes (mg/km)
Aromatics (mg/km) Particle
Emissions
Particles
(g/km)
Benzo(a)pyrene(ug/km) (lJg/g of particles)
and
cycles.
aTotal hydrocarbons are determined with a flame ionization detector according to methods specified by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. The resulting values cannot be compared to the sums of individual hydrocarbons measured by gas chromatography because the flame ionization detector measurement depends on the chemical composition of the hydrocarbon mixture which is unknown.
TABLE IV-6 CONCENTRATIONS OF SOMEPOLYNUCLEAR HYDROCARBONS IN DIESEL EXHAUST PARTICULATEMATTER Concentration (~g/g of particles)
Compound Anthracene
36
Pyrene
292
Benz(a)anthracene
34
Benzo(a)pyrene
a 12
Dibenzo(a,i)pyrene
10
Benzo(k)fluoranthene
59
aThe agreement with the entry for benzo(a)pyrene in Table IV-5 is good though more modern methods were used in the latter analysis. Reference:
the Transportation
Lyons 1962.
Systems Center.
engine operating
conditions.
ting
for cold starts
conditions:
tions
These will
provide
Diesel emissions are known to change markedly for compared to warm starts,
compared to constant speeds, as well as different Estimates of the total
emissions from light
assuming that 20% of the light
duty vehicles
size vehicles
were averaged to estimate
Environmental
Protection
as indicated.
reactant
exist
emissions.
Polynuclear particulate
metropolitan
duty diesel
vehicles
may alter
model that represented
These studies
(1978) and Duewer et al.
organic
tive
substituted
categories
gases, nitrogen
Metropolitan all
the complex mixtures of reacting centers.
of pollution
principal
for
single
gases of
sources in isolation,
the San Francisco Bay Area was used to simu-
from increased use of diesel
vehicles
in this
at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.
oxides,
model are divided
sulfur
dioxide
three reactivity
alkanes and less reactive
into
five
major They
(1978),
classes: aromatics,
25
particulate
daily
gases or
alkenes and some highly
reac-
and aldehydes and ketones. sources, airports
according to a traffic
Commission. This model provides
roads in the region.
categories:
and carbon monoxide. The organic
sources are used: mobile sources, major point
The mobile sources are distributed
Transportation
Because the levels
(1980).
subdivided into
aromatics,
commercial sources.
of economy and full
Model (LIRAQ) as described by MacCracken et al.
emissions data used in this
hydrocarbons are further
driving
Emission rates that exceeded the
were performed by Joyce Penner, Michael MacCracken and John
used the Livermore Regional Air Quality
Pollutant
are given in Table IV-7
1995. These were calculated
Reactive Vapors and Gases
Walton of the Atmospheric and Geophysics Division Duewer et al.
fuels.
hydrocarbon emissions were estimated from data in
changes that could result
center.
opera-
and decelera-
emission of 60,000 t,
in the atmospheres of large population
dispersion
the possible
matter,
after
and product gases in the environment can not be projected
an environmental late
vehicles
Emission rates for city
the total
Levels of Photochemically
Increased use of light and vapors that
engines and different
duty diesel
different
accelerations
Agency proposed emissions standards for 1985 were replaced by the emis-
Table IV-6 assuming a total Projected Environmental
for cyclic
would be diesel
from the emission rates given in Table IV-5.
sions standards
more analyses of emissions under different
traffic
Four
and area
model of the
cycles representing
TABLEIV-7 PROJECTED DIESEL EMISSIONSINTO THE ENVIRONMENT FOR20% LIGHT DUTYDIESEL VEHICLES Emissions g/km
total
Hydrocarbons
a 0.25
150,000
Carbon Monoxide
0.87
520,000
Nitrogen Oxide
a 0.60
360,000
Sulfur
0.31
190,000
Dioxide
t
-3 7 x 10
4,000
Aldehydes
-3 64 x 10
38,000
Alkanes
-3 12 x 10
7,000
Alkenes
.3 56 x 10
34,000
Aromatics
-3 10 x 10
6,000
Particles
a 0.10
60,000
Sulfates
Polynuclear Hydrocarbons
total
~g/g particles
kg
Anthracene
36
2,200
Pyrene
292
18,000
Benz(a)anthracene
34
2,000
Benzo(a)pyrene
12
700
Dibenzo(a,i)pyrene
I0
600
Benzo(k)fluoranthene
59
3,500
avalues taken from Table IV-5 that exceed the proposed EPA emissions standards for 1985 and after are replaced by the latter. The 1975 Bay Area emissions inventory emissions were then changed to represent fleet.
The highest
level
of diesel levels
maximumrealistic
of diesel
exhausts related IV-I
shows variations
vehicles
are given in Table IV-8.
in the concentrations
changes were projected the nitrogen
San FranCisco, The results
cycles and concentrations light
duty diesel
vehicles
are shown in Figures IV-I
and IV-2.
vehicles.
All
for both gasoline
and diesel
of these data are for 100% light
and IV-2 generally
of the simulated
Figure
Small
of hydrocarbons but no changes were projected
pollutants
indicate
duty diesel
locations: vehicles.
change in the time
could be expected from increased use of
in the San Francisco Bay Area. 26
that little
for
engines.
changes in gaseous hydrocarbons and ozone for different
San Jose and Livermore.
shown in Figure IV-I
could
than the
automobile hydrocarbon
from increased use of diesel
oxides since these emissions are similar
Figure IV-2 shows the projected
area rather
of gaseous hydrocarbons in downtown San Francisco and
would result
in the concentrations
duty vehicle
the maximumchange that
use. Changes in primary
simulations
The hydrocarbon
in the light
in a major metropolitan
vehicle
Results of the atmospheric pollutant of ozone in the Livermore area that
vehicles
was used to represent
of pollutants
to the use of diesel
the base simulation.
20% and 100% diesel
vehicles
be produced in environmental projection
was used for
TABLEIV-8 CHANGES IN PRIMARY AUTOMOBILE EXHAUST CONSTITUENTS DUETO THE INTRODUCTION OFDIESELSIN THESANFRANCISCO BAYAREA
Replacement Levels ExhaustConstituents
0%
20%
100%
Alkanes
Baseline
+4%
+18%
Alkenes
Baseline
+9%
+46%
Aldehydes
Baseline
+7%
+35%
GaseousHydrocarbons
3,0
Gaseous Hydrocarbons
100% ,-~ 2,0
,-~ 2,0-
)
)
o ~) 1,0 .L
