Results of the 2013 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income ...

7 downloads 5 Views 494KB Size Report
Jul 31, 2013 ... www.bea.gov. 2. Comprehensive Revision. ▫ Occurs about every five years (this is the 14th). ▫ Incorporates the results of the 5-year economic.

Results of the 2013 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts Bureau of Economic Analysis July 31, 2013

www.bea.gov

1

Comprehensive Revision ▪ Occurs about every five years (this is the 14th) ▪ Incorporates the results of the 5-year economic census and the benchmark input-output accounts ▪ Updates the reference year for prices, quantities (2009) ▪ Major changes in concepts, methods, and tables ▪ The entire time span (1929 to present) is open for revisions

www.bea.gov

2

Changes in Definitions and Presentations ▪ Major conceptual changes:  Capitalize research & development (R&D)  Capitalize entertainment, literary, and artistic originals  Expanded capitalization of ownership transfer costs of residential housing  Accrual treatment of defined benefit pension plans

▪ Major table changes:  Intellectual property products  New pension tables www.bea.gov

3

Major Statistical Changes ▪ Benchmark input-output accounts for 2007 ▪ Improved measures of implicit services of commercial banks ▪ State & local government defined-contribution pension plans ▪ Adjustment to proprietors’ income for corporate partners ▪ Regulated investment companies distributions ▪ Mortgage interest paid for housing www.bea.gov

4

Reasons for Changes ▪ Changes in the economic environment  Growing importance of intellectual property products in business, productivity

▪ Financial crisis and recession  Exposed vulnerabilities in pension promises  Data gaps in financial services

▪ Updated international guidelines  System of National Accounts 2008  Maintain comparability of GDP across countries, while allowing accounts to remain up to date www.bea.gov

5

New and Revised Source Data ▪ Census Bureau surveys:      

Annual survey of manufactures Annual retail trade survey Annual wholesale trade survey Services annual survey Construction spending (value put in place) Government finances

▪ Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Wage and salary data

▪ Internal Revenue Service:

 Tax returns for corporations and for sole proprietorships and partnerships

▪ Office of Management and Budget:  Federal government budget data

▪ BEA:

 International transactions accounts

www.bea.gov

6

Average annual rates of change of real GDP 4 3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4 3.2

3.2

Percent

3

2

1

0.8 0.6

0 1929-2012

1959-1992 Previously published

www.bea.gov

1992-2007

2007-2012

Revised 7

Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period]

8 6

Percent

4 2 0 -2 -4 1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

Previously published www.bea.gov

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

Revised

8

Revisions to recent recessions and expansions [percent change, annual rate]

4

3.6 3.6 2.7 2.8

3

2.1 2.2 2 1.0

Percent

1

0.6

0 -1 -2 -3

-2.7 -2.6 -3.2

-2.9

-4 1990Q3-1991Q1

1991Q1-2001Q1

2001Q1-2001Q4

Previously published

www.bea.gov

2001Q4-2007Q4

2007Q4-2009Q2

2009Q2-2013Q1

Revised 9

Average annual rates of change of real GDP and its major components, 2002 to 2012

6

5.3 5.2

4

Percent

2

1.6 1.8

1.8 2.0

3.1 3.1

2.4 2.6

1.6 1.8 0.9 0.9

0 -2 -4 -5.0

-6 GDP

PCE

-4.4

Nonres Fixed Res Fixed Previously published

www.bea.gov

Exports

Imports

GOV

FSDP

Revised 10

Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

6 4 2

Percent

0 -2

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6

-4

0.6 0.4 0.3

-6

0.1

0.2

-8

-0.2

-0.1

2007

-10 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

0.0

0.0

0.0

2008

11q1

2009

2010

12q1

2011

2012

13q1

Revised 11

Price index for gross domestic purchases [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

5 4 3

Percent

2 1 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.2

-1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0 -0.1

-2

-0.1

-0.2 -0.3

-0.2

-0.2

2007

2008

-0.2

-0.4

-3

-0.5 -0.6

-4

2009

2010

2011

2012

-5 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 12

Real gross domestic income [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

8 6 4 2 Percent

0 -2

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.6

-4

1.3

1.2 0.7

0.8

-6

0.3

0.4 0.0

-8

-0.4

-0.1 -0.4

-10

-0.4

-0.8

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-12 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 13

Real GDI and Real GDP [Billions of chained (2009) dollars]

16,000

15,500

Levels

15,000

14,500

14,000

13,500 07q1

08q1

09q1 Real GDI

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Real GDP 14

Statistical discrepancy as % of GDP 2

Percentage

1

0

-1

-2 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1

Previously published www.bea.gov

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 15

Personal saving as a percentage of DPI Revision in percentage points, 2007-2012 2

8

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

2011

2012

1

7

0.6

0.5

0.5 0

6

-0.5

Percent

2007

-0.4

2008

2009

2010

5 4 3 2 1 04q1

05q1

06q1

07q1

08q1

Previously published www.bea.gov

09q1

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 16

Research and Development ▪ Expenditures on R&D have the characteristics of fixed assets and should be treated as investment:  Ownership rights, long-lasting, used in production

▪ Previous treatment:  Business R&D expenditures were classified as intermediate inputs  R&D expenditures of nonprofit institutions and governments were included in consumption expenditures

▪ New treatment:  R&D expenditures by businesses, NPISH, and governments are counted as fixed investment  Depreciation of R&D added to consumption of fixed capital (CFC) www.bea.gov

17

Impact of Capitalizing R&D ▪ Total R&D investment for 2012: $417.7 billion  2.6% of (revised) GDP

 Business R&D: $248.7 billion  Formerly treated as intermediate spending

 Government & nonprofit R&D: $169.0 billion  Reclassified from consumption to investment

▪ Impact on GDP revision for 2012: $396.7 billion  2.5% of (previously published) GDP

 Business investment added to GDP: $248.7 billion  Government & nonprofit—add CFC for R&D: $148.0 billion www.bea.gov

18

Entertainment, Literary, and Artistic Originals ▪ Original films, sound recordings, manuscripts, etc., that can be used for the production and sale of copies ▪ Estimates for several types, including:     

Motion pictures Long-lasting television programs Books Music compositions and recordings Miscellaneous artwork

▪ Treatment as fixed investment similar to R&D, except entirely in private sector www.bea.gov

19

Real private intellectual property products [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

25

Private Investment in IPP [Percent Change from Previous Quarter]

20

Percent

15 10 5 0 -5 -10

www.bea.gov

20

Accrual-Based Measures of Pensions ▪ New measures for defined-benefit (DB) plans ▪ Accrual-based accounting  Matches income earned with related production  Recognizes employer liabilities for promised pension benefits  Replaces cash-based accounting

▪ Compensation of employees  Deferred compensation  Benefits accrued on services rendered in current period

▪ Interest  Benefits accrued on services rendered in past periods  Includes interest on unfunded actuarial liabilities www.bea.gov

21

Composition of revisions to compensation [Revision in level]

www.bea.gov

22

Accrued interest for unfunded actuarial liabilities 220 200 180 160 Billions of dollars

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 2002

2003

2004

2005

from private business www.bea.gov

2006

2007

2008

from federal

2009

2010

2011

2012

from state and local 23

Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

6 4 2

Percent

0 -2

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6

-4

0.6 0.4 0.3

-6

0.1

0.2

-8

-0.2

-0.1

2007

-10 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

0.0

0.0

0.0

2008

11q1

2009

2010

12q1

2011

2012

13q1

Revised 24

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2009 0.35 0.30

0.3

0.30

Percentage points

0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10

0.07 0.04

0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10

GDP was revised from -3.1 to -2.8.

-0.04 -0.10

-0.15

2009 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 25

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2010 0.20 0.16

Percentage points

0.15 0.10

0.1 0.06

0.05

0.02

0.00 -0.05

-0.01

GDP was revised from 2.4 to 2.5.

-0.10 -0.12

-0.15

2010 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE

Investment

Exports

Imports

GOV 26

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2011 0.10 0.08

0.07

Percentage points

0.06 0.04

GDP was unrevised at 1.8.

0.02

0.02 0.00

0.0

-0.02

0.01

-0.01

-0.04 -0.06

-0.05

-0.08 -0.10

2011 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 27

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2012 0.70

Percentage points

0.60

0.6

GDP was revised from 2.2 to 2.8.

0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20

0.20

0.17

0.14

0.10

0.05 0.01

0.00

2012 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE

Investment

Exports

Imports

GOV 28

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2010Q2 1.80

1.7

GDP was revised from 2.2 to 3.9.

1.60

Percentage points

1.40

1.21

1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40

0.40 0.20

0.08

0.02

0.00 -0.04

-0.20

2010Q2 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 29

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2011Q1 1.50

Percentage points

1.00 0.50

GDP was revised from 0.1 to -1.3.

0.26

0.00 -0.50

-0.43

-0.27

-0.80

-1.00 -1.50

-0.12

-1.4

-2.00

2011Q1 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE

Investment

Exports

Imports

GOV 30

Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2012Q1 1.80

1.7

1.60

GDP was revised from 2.0 to 3.7.

Percentage points

1.40 1.20 1.00

0.79

0.80 0.60

0.42

0.40

0.32

0.26

0.20 0.00 -0.04

-0.20

2012Q1 GDP www.bea.gov

PCE Investment

Exports Imports GOV 31

Real personal consumption expenditures [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

6 4

Percent

2 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012

0.5 0.4

-2

0.3

0.3

0.3 0.2

0.2

0.2 0.1

0.0

0.0 -0.1

-4

-0.2

-0.1

-0.3

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-6 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 32

Real PCE for goods

[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] 10

Percent

5

0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.5 0.3

-5

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1 -0.3

-10

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5 -0.7 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-15 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised

33

Real PCE for services

[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

3 2

Percent

1 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6 0.6

-1

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

-2

0.2

0.2 0.1 0.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-3 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 34

Real nonresidential fixed investment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

30 20

Percent

10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 3.2

-10

2.5 2.4

1.8

1.6

-20

0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.8

-30

-0.6 -1.0

-1.6 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-0.7 2012

-40 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

11q1

10q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 35

Real nonresidential structures [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.2

2.4

40

1.9 1.8 1.2

30

0.6 0.0

-0.6 -0.8

-1.2 -1.8

-1.4

2007

10 Percent

-0.3

-0.6

20

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0 -10 -20 -30 -40 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 36

Real nonresidential equipment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

40 30 20

Percent

10 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 5.0

-10

4.5

4.0 3.0

-20

2.0 1.0

-30

0.6

0.2

0.3

2011

2012

0.0 -0.2 -1.0

-40

-1.0 -2.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

-50 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published*

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised

*Values are unpublished calculations.

37

Real residential fixed investment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

30

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.9

2.0

1.5 1.2

20

1.2

1.0

10

0.8

0.5

Percent

0.0

0

-0.1

-0.1

2007

2008

-0.5

2009

2010

2011

2012

-10 -20 -30 -40 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 38

Change in real private inventories [Billions of chained dollars, SAAR]

160 120 80

Levels

40 0 -40 20

Revision in level (billions of chained dollars), 2007-2012 14.6

-80

15 10

-120

7.8

7.3 2.6

5

2.6

0

-160

-5 -10

-200

-8.6

-15 -20

2007

-240 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1

Previously published (2005 dollars) www.bea.gov

2008

2009

2010

11q1

12q1

2011

2012

13q1

Revised (2009 dollars) 39

Real exports of goods and services [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

30 20

Percent

10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.7

-10

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3 0.1

-20

0.1

0.0

-0.1 -0.3

-30

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

2007

2008

-0.7

-40 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1

Previously published www.bea.gov

2009

11q1

2010

2011

2012

12q1

13q1

Revised 40

Real imports of goods and services [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

30 20

Percent

10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.5

-10

0.4

0.3

0.3 0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

-20

0.0 -0.1 -0.2

-30

-0.1 -0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.4 -0.5

2007

-40 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

2008

2009

10q1

11q1

2010

2011

2012

12q1

13q1

Revised 41

Real federal government spending [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

20 15 10 Percent

5 0 -5

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.2 0.8 0.8

-10

0.5 0.2

0.4 0.0

-15

-0.1

-0.4 -0.4

-0.4

2008

2009

-0.8

2007

-20 07q1

08q1

2010

2011

2012

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 42

Real state and local government spending [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.7

0.8

8

0.6 0.3

0.4 0.2

6

0.1

0.0 -0.2 -0.2

-0.4

4

-0.6 -0.6

-0.8 -1.0

Percent

2

-0.9

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0 -2 -4 -6 -8 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 43

Price index for gross domestic purchases [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

5 4 3

Percent

2 1 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.2

-1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0 -0.1

-2

-0.1

-0.2 -0.3

-0.2

-0.2

2007

2008

-0.2

-0.4

-3

-0.5 -0.6

-4

2009

2010

2011

2012

-5 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 44

Price index for gross domestic purchases, excluding food and energy [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012

5

0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7

4

Percent

3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1 -0.2

-0.2 -0.3

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2 1 0 -1 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 45

Price index for PCE

[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] 6 4

Percent

2 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012

-2

0.2 0.1

0.0

0.0

2011

2012

0.0

-4

-0.1 -0.2 -0.3

-6

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

2007

2008

2009

2010

-0.4 -0.5

-8 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 46

Price index for PCE, excluding food and energy [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012

4

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0 -0.1 -0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

2008

2009

2010

-0.4

3

-0.5 -0.6

Percent

2007

2011

2012

2

1

0 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 47

National income

[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

10

Percent

5

0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.5

1.3 0.9

1.0

-5

0.4

0.5 0.0

-10

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5 -0.8

-1.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-15 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 48

National income [Revisions in level]

120 100

Billions of dollars

80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2009

National income

www.bea.gov

2010

Compensation

Proprietors' income

2011

Rental income

2012

Profits

Interest & misc. payments

49

Compensation of employees [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

15 10

Percent

5 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012

-5

0.5

0.4

0.4 0.3

0.2

0.2

-10

0.1

0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

-15

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4 -0.4

-0.5

2007

-20 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

2008

10q1

2009

11q1

2010

2011

2012

12q1

13q1

Revised 50

Compensation of employees [billions of dollars] Revision in level, 2007-2012

9,000

50.0 43.2 40.0

8,800

30.0 18.7

20.0 10.9 10.0

8,600

0.0

Levels

-2.7 -10.0

8,400

-11.6 -20.0

-16.7

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

8,200 8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,200 07q1

www.bea.gov

08q1

09q1

10q1

11q1

Previously published

Revised

12q1

13q1

51

Compensation of employees [Revisions in level]

30

Billions of dollars

20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2009

2010 Total compensation

www.bea.gov

2011 Wages and salaries

2012 Supplements 52

Corporate profits from current production [Percent change from preceding period, quarterly rate]

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2

30

1.4

2

0.9

1

0.6

1

0.2

0

20

-1 -1 -1.0 -2 -2

Percent

10

-1.8

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

-10 -20 -30 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 53

Corporate profits from current production [Revisions in level]

100 80

Billions of dollars

60 40 20 0 -20 -40 2009 Total www.bea.gov

2010 Domestic financial

2011 Domestic nonfinancial

2012 Foreign 54

Personal income

[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

15 10

Percent

5 0

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.5

2.0

2

-5

1.5

1.0

1

0.5

0.5 0

-10

-0.5 -1

-0.4 -0.9

-1.0

-1.5

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-15 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 55

Personal income and its components [Revisions in level]

350 300

Billions of dollars

250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2009

2010

2011

2012

Personal income

Wages and salaries

Supplements

Proprietors' income

Rental income

Personal income receipts on assets

Personal current transfer receipts www.bea.gov

56

Real disposable personal income (DPI) [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]

10 8 6

Percent

4 2 0 -2

Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.3

2.5

-4

2 1.5

1.1

1

-6

0.3

0.5 0 -0.5

-8

-0.3

-1

-0.7

-0.9

-1.5

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-10 07q1

08q1

09q1 Previously published

www.bea.gov

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 57

Personal saving as a percentage of DPI Revision in percentage points, 2007-2012 2

8

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

2011

2012

1

7

0.6

0.5

0.5 0

6

-0.5

Percent

2007

-0.4

2008

2009

2010

5 4 3 2 1 04q1

05q1

06q1

07q1

08q1

Previously published www.bea.gov

09q1

10q1

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 58

Gross (national) saving as a percentage of gross national income 20 18

Percent

16 14 12 10 8 07q1

08q1

09q1

10q1

Previously published www.bea.gov

11q1

12q1

13q1

Revised 59

Selected components of national saving [Revisions in level]

250 200

Billions of dollars

150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 2009 Personal saving www.bea.gov

2010 Undistributed profits

2011

2012

Government saving 60

Suggest Documents