20 Mar 2013 ... Co-located with International Lead and Zinc Study. Group and ... copper mines,
plants and refineries on a country by country basis, including ...
UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development
Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland
Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Don Smale Secretary-General International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Copper Study Group International Nickel Study Group
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Don Smale Secretary-General
International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Copper Study Group International Nickel Study Group UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development Geneva, 20-21 March 2013
1
International Copper Study Group Introduction Formally established in 1992, following a series of UNCTAD expert meetings on copper. Headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal. Co-located with International Lead and Zinc Study Group and International Nickel Study Group since 2006. The Group is an intergovernmental organization consisting of 23 member governments plus the European Union representing copper producing and using countries
International Copper Study Group
2
ICSG - MEMBERSHIP Membership is open to any country involved in copper production, consumption or international trade. Last two countries joining in 2011/2012: Zambia and Iran Current members are: Australia, Belgium, Chile, China, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, the United States, Zambia and the European Commission. Possible new Member Countries: Mongolia, Brazil and DRC
International Copper Study Group
3
ICSG - MAIN OBJECTIVES & FUNCTIONS To conduct consultations and exchanges of information on the international copper economy. To improve statistics on copper. To increase market transparency. To undertake studies on issues of interest to the Group. To consider special problems or difficulties that exist or may arise in the international copper economy. ICSG endeavours to provide its membership with the most accurate, comprehensive and timely information on capacities, production, usage, trade, stocks, prices, technologies, research and development, and other areas that may influence the supply and demand for copper. International Copper Study Group
4
A FORUM FOR DISCUSSION • Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a year ahead • Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals • Environmental policy: sharing information on approaches to regulation • Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives provide input to member governments
• Invite observer countries, industry and observer organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank, UNIDO, Common Fund for Commodities and metals associations International Copper Study Group
5
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS Directory of Copper Mines & Plants (semi-annual): The Directory of Copper Mines and Plants highlights current capacity and provides a five year outlook of forecasted capacity for over 1,000 existing and planned copper mines, plants and refineries on a country by country basis, including separate tables for SX-EW plants. Salient details for each operation are included and the Directory separates operations between Operating & Developing and Exploration & Feasibility stages.
Directory of Copper & Copper Alloy Fabricators - First Use (annual): This directory provides a systematic global overview of companies and plants involved in the first use of copper. First users are mainly semis fabricators that process refinery shapes into semi-finished copper and copper alloy products. The Directory covers wire rod plants, ingot makers (for castings), master alloy plants, brass mills, and electrodeposited copper foil mills. Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries
International Copper Study Group
6
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS Copper Bulletin (monthly): includes annual and monthly statistics, by country, on copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper usage and trade, as well as stocks and exchange prices, providing a global view of supply and demand. Statistical Yearbook : As above, covering the past 10 years. Monthly Press Release on the state of the copper market (to be included in the email distribution list please contact
[email protected]) World Copper Market Forecast: Prepared twice a year for the following two years. Copper Factbook: The Factbook provides a broad overview of all facets of copper, from production to trade, usage, recycling and more. It is designed to promote copper and educate readers about the importance and contribution of copper to society. Available in ICSG Website, in PDF and in hard copies. Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries
International Copper Study Group
7
World Copper Reserves 2011
Resources: about 3000 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserves 690 Mt
contained copper metal
2011 Mine Production 16.03 Mt
Not to scale
Sources: USGS 8
International Copper Study Group
World Copper Reserves 2011 Breakdown Source: USGS
•
Despite increased consumption of copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more copper available to the world than at any other time in the past.
Kazakstan 1% DRC 3%
Canada 1%
Other 12%
Chile 28%
Zambia 3% Poland 4% Indonesia 4%
Russia 4% China 4%
Peru 13%
United States 5% Mexico 6%
Australia 12%
Mexico accounts for around 6% of World Copper Reserves reported by USGS 9
Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4% Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.1 % Average annual grow rate in the last 3 years: 1.2%
Source:10 ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Mine Production
Mine production growth averaged a disappointing 0.9% growth in the period 20082011 (concentrate growth was flat) However smaller and medium size mine projects stared in 2012 and 2012 production recovered from 2011operational constrains Capacity expansions occurring in Chile, Mexico and Peru
20,000 18,000 16,000
Mine sx-ew world Concentrates world
14,000 12,000
'000t Cu
The 2008 crisis had a severe impact on copper projects development and the postponement of many projects: no new major project until 2012.
10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
2006
8%
6%
The supply constraint factors that have been affecting the copper industry in the last few years will expected continue to impact supply.
3%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World concentrate production growth World SX-EW production growth
7%
Major mine projects start by end 2013 and in 2014 boosting world production (eg. Oyu Tolgoi)
2007
5% 4%
2% 1%
0% -1%
2007
World copper mine production expected to -2% grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of about 3% in 2012 International Copper Study Group
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ICSG 11
Distribution of Copper Mine Production by Country Brazil , 0.4% Iran , 0.7%
Others, 16.3%
Kazakhstan , 3.4% Poland , 3.6%
1990 Chile , 17.2%
China , 3.2% Peru , 3.3%
2014
Brazil , 1.7% Iran , 1.6%
Others, 10.0%
Kazakhstan , 2.0% Poland , 2.2%
Chile , 29.3%
Mexico , 3.6% Congo , 4.4%
Mexico , 3.6%
Congo , 3.9% Indonesia , 1.8% Canada , 8.6% Zambia , 4.6%
United States , 17.2%
Russian Fed. ,Australia , 3.5% 8.7%
Indonesia , 3.4% Canada , 3.6% Zambia , 4.9% Russian Fed. , 4.0% Australia , 6.3%
China , 8.9%
Peru , 7.4% United States , 7.2%
Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world United States loosing share and Peru increasing its share Mexico maintaining the same share at around 3.6% Source:12 ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Refined Production
2013 world refined production recovering from extended maintenances occurring in 2012 Chinese refined production continuing its strong expansion Expected improved capacity utilization rates at Indian refineries. Two new refineries that started in Turkey and in Kazakhstan in 2011 bringing new supply in 2012/2013 Primary electrolytic refinery production to remain constrained by shortage of concentrates World secondary production expected to grow by 11% in 2013 and share in total output to be around 19% World copper refined production expected to grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of about 2% in 2012 International Copper Study Group
'000t Cu
2012 Japanese refined production recovered from low 2011 levels. (earthquake)
24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
World Refined Production
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
18.0%
World primary refined production growth
16.0%
World secondary refined production growth
2012
2013
2014
14.0% 12.0% 10.0%
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ICSG 13
Distribution of Copper Refined Production by Country
Others, 23.7%
China, 5.2%
1990 Chile, 11.1%
Japan, 9.3%
Mexico, 1.4%
Peru, 1.5% Belgium, 1.8%
China, 30.0%
Spain, 2.0% Mexico, 2.0%
Australia, 2.2% Zambia, 3.3%
Spain, 1.6%
Peru, 1.7% Belgium, 3.1% Australia, 2.5% Zambia, 4.1% Poland, 3.2% Korean Rep., 1.7% India, 0.4%
2014
Others, 16.2%
Poland, 2.5% United States, 18.7%
Germany, 4.9%
Russian Fed., 7.4%
Korean Rep., 2.9% India, 3.2% Germany, 3.1% Russian Fed., 4.0%
Chile, 13.3%
Japan, 6.8% United States, 5.3%
Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to 30% by 2014 United States and Japan loosing share Mexico growing from 1.4% to 2% Source:14 ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Usage Copper consuming sectors growth linked to the performance of the world economy. World GDP should pick up gradually during 2013/2014 supporting global usage growth. However regional divergences occur with lower growth in some regions than others. Globally, the downside risk remains elevated Stimulus packs by some governments supportive of usage growth Improved outlook for the US economy, lower wirerod imports and new wirerod plant positive for usage in 2012-2014 Uncertainty on EU sovereign debt issues and economy contraction negatively impacting usage in 2012 with small recovery anticipated for 2013 and 2014 Japan’s usage is expected to remain practically unchanged in the period 2012-2014 Indian urbanization and industrialization should continue to boost copper usage and supporting growth in 2013 and 2014. Unstable political situation in the Middle East and North Africa affecting usage in the region in 2011-2012 and only small growths expected for 2013-2014
Global green applications such as wind farms are a growing sector boosting world copper usage. Substitution remains a threat when copper prices remain high. In 2012, China apparent usage growth (+11%) inflated by high net cathode imports. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that the high imports were accompanied by an increase in inventories held in bonded warehouses. Chinese usage growth in 2013/2014 expected to be lower than in previous years. International Copper Study Group
15
Distribution of Copper Refined Usage by Country 1990
China , 5% Others, 26%
United States , 20%
Belgium , 1.3% Mexico , 1.5%
Others, 15%
Spain , 1.8% Turkey , 2.1%
Belgium , 3.6% Mexico , 1.2% Spain , 1.3% Turkey , 0.9% Brazil , 1.3% Taiwan , 2.5%
China , 42%
Brazil , 2.1% Taiwan , 2.0% Germany , 9%
Italy , 2.9% India , 3.3%
Japan , 14.5%
Italy , 4.4% India , 1.2% Russian fed. , 5.5%
2014
Korean Rep. , 2.9%
Russian fed. , 3.1% Korean Rep. , 3.8%
Japan , 4.6%
United States , 9% Germany , 6%
Strong growth in Chinese refined usage, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to more than 40% by 2014 United States share in world usage declining from 20% to 9% Mexico growing slightly from 1.2% to 1.5% Source:16 ICSG
Major Uses of Copper: Usage by Region and End Use Sector, 2010 Basis: copper content, thousand metric tonnes Source: International Copper Association
Europe 22%
North America 10% Latin America 6% Building Construction 32%
Equipment 54%
Infrastructure 14%
Asia 62%
International Copper Study Group
17
ICSG World Copper forecast (Oct 2012) – summary table FORECAST TO 2013 REGIONS (1000 t)
MINE PRODUCTION 2011
2012
REFINED PRODUCTION
2013
2011
2012
REFINED USAGE
2013
2011
2012
2013
Africa
1,306
1,396
1,712
961
1,064
1,326
281
256
262
N.America
2,150
2,244
2,536
1,706
1,701
1,886
2,202
2,241
2,340
Latin America
6,848
6,993
7,209
3,717
3,463
3,606
600
608
641
765
653
909
517
398
575
734
788
819
1,768
1,977
2,298
8,048
8,772
9,367
11,331
12,005
12,014
Asia-CIS
470
487
500
428
447
472
99
100
101
EU-27
788
804
814
2,716
2,768
2,790
3,295
3,137
3,207
Europe Others
832
853
870
1,080
1,049
1,095
1,202
1,120
1,173
Oceania
1,092
1,118
1,300
477
503
504
120
122
125
TOTAL
16,019
16,524
18,147
19,651
20,166
21,620
19,865
20,376
20,682
World adjusted 1/ 2/
16,019
16,479
17,533
19,651
19,950
21,140
19,865
20,376
20,682
2.9%
6.4%
1.5%
6.0%
2.6%
1.5%
-426
458
Asean-10 Asia ex Asean/CIS
% change Refined Production - Usage Balance
-214
1/ Based on a formula for the difference between the projected copper availability in concentrates and the projected use in primary refined production; 2/ based on average ICSG forecast deviations for pre-recession years 2003/2007.
With production growth expected to exceed demand growth in 2013 and 2014, the market is foreseen to return to surplus after three years of consecutive deficits The International Copper Study Group recognized that numerous factors including a world economic slow down, European Union sovereign debt issues, political disturbances in the Middle East and North Africa, and market price volatility create significant uncertainty, and that the global market balances could vary from those projected 18
WORLD COPPER MINE CAPACITY BY REGION - 2012/2016
12,000
2012
10,000
10,263
2016
7,979
('000t Cu)
8,000 5,892
6,000
3,699
4,000
4,133
3,938
2,190
1,976 2,225
2,000
3,043 1,254 1,494
0
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
South America will remain the region with the largest copper mine installed capacity and is expected to bring to the market until 2016 an additional 2.3 Mt capacity. Asian and African copper mining capacity also increasing substantially. All together, these three regions represent 78% of the world additional copper mine production capacity to come on stream by 2016.
South America
Oceania
GROWTH 2012-2016
Oceania South America North America
Europe Asia Africa 0
500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 19 2013 International Copper Study Group
COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap > 100Ktpy Cu) 600
550
500
Resolution
Udokan
450
400
El Pachon Tampakan Las Bambas
350 Sentinel
Michiquillay
Cobre Panama
300 Toromocho
Reko Diq Sierra Gorda Quellaveco Aynak
250
El Arco
Galore Creek
El Galeno
Rio Blanco Mina Ministro Hales (Mansa Mina)
Panantza
Pebble
Wafi Golpu
Frieda River
200
150
La Granja
El Relincho
Deziwa & Ecaille C
Agua Rica El Morro Qulong Tia Maria
Caserones 100
King King
Kamoa
Altar
Yandera
Los Azules
Junin
Shaft Creek
Cerro Casale
50
Total annual Capacity of Listed Projects : 9 Mt Cu 0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013 International Copper Study Group
20
Projected Copper Smelter Production Capacity Increase by Country 2,000 1,750
Expected increase until 2016
1,500 1,250 ('000t Cu)
1,000 750
500 250
(1) Future possible new/expanded smelters in Mongolia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Brazil, Philipines, Indonesia and Tanzania
Potential (1)
Brazil
Others
Mexico
Indonesia
Zambia
India
Iran
-250
China
0
China will continue to increase its smelting capacity through expansions and new projects. Some expansions, new projects occuring in other few countries Indonesi new mining law on banning ore exports leading to the development of new smelter projects in the country In August 2010 Grupo Mexico announced plans for a smelter/refinery project (Empalme) to start in Mexico in 2016 with a capacity of 350ktpy (development not yet confirmed) Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013 International Copper Study Group
21
International Nickel Study Group An Autonomous International Governmental Organization Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with International Lead & Zinc and Copper Study Groups, resulting in significant cost savings Enhancement of market transparency in the world nickel market Forum for discussions on nickel issues.
INSG Member Countries Australia
Brazil
Cuba
European Union
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Japan
Norway
Portugal
Russian Federation
Sweden
United Kingdom
World Nickel Ore Production (2/2) in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f) (2154.7)
2003 (1257.3) Oceania 25%
Europe 21%
Africa 6%
Asia 16%
Africa 5%
Oceania 19%
Americas 32%
Europe 18%
Americas 23%
Asia 36%
(f) forecast October 2012; Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Production (1/2) in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012; Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Production (2/2) in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f) (1849.0)
2003 (1184.5) Americas 24%
Asia 19%
Africa 5%
Oceania 15%
Europe 37%
Asia 41%
Americas 18% Africa 3%
Oceania 11%
Europe 28%
(f) forecast October 2012; Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (1/2) in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012; Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (2/2) in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f) (1755.2)
2003 (1218.6) Europe 41%
Europe 21%
Oceania 0.2%
Oceania 0.2%
Africa 2%
Africa 3%
Asia 43%
Americas 14%
Asia 67%
Americas 10%
(f) forecast October 2012; Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Balance annual
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012; Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
Primary Nickel Capacity by Country New committed developments: 0.5Mt
2011: 1.7Mt CANADA 10% BRAZIL 7%
CHINA P.R. 9% COLOMBIA 3%
AUSTRIA 0% AUSTRALIA 8% ZIMBABWE 1%
CANADA 10% NORWAY 2% CHINA P.R. 8%
GREECE 1%
VENEZUELA 1% UK 2% UKRAINE 1% SOUTH AFRICA 3% SERBIA (KOSOVO) 1%
BRAZIL 27%
CUBA 3% DOM. REP. 2% FINLAND 3% FRANCE 1% FYROM 1%
INDONESIA 2% JAPAN 10%
RUSSIAN FED. 19%
NORWAY 5%
CUBA 4%
NEW CALEDONIA 23%
KOREA 2% NEW CALEDONIA 3%
Note: excluding NPI.
JAPAN 6%
MYANMAR 4%
MADAGASCAR 11%
New producing countries
KOREA 5%
New Nickel Capacity on Stream / Ramp Up Project Name / Country
Product
Mode
Estimated Production
Projected Total Production
Remarks
Ambatovy / Madagascar
Class I
Ramp Up
≈ 35 000
60 000
Open market
Tagaung Taung / Myanmar
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 10 000
22 000
China
Koniambo / New Caledonia
FeNi
Start Up
≈ 16 000
60 000
Open market
Onça Puma / Brazil
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 30 000
58 000
Open market
Barro Alto / Brazil
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 27 000
36 000
Open market
Goro / New Caledonia
Semi / Class I
Ramp Up
≈ 26 000
60 000
Australia & China
Ramu / PNG
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 13 000
30 000
China & Other
Talvivaara / Finland
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 18 000
35 000
Finland
Raventhorpe / Australia
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 33 000
39 000
Australia & Other
Santa Rita / Brazil
Conc.
Ramp Up
≈ 23 000
25 000
Brazil & Finland
Kevitsa / Finland
Conc.
Start Up
≈ 9 000
10 000
Open market
Long Harbour / Canada
Class I
Start Up
≈ 10 000
50 000
Mainly replacement
Taganito / The Philippines
Semi
Start Up
≈ 6 000
30 000
Japan
Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
World Nickel Ore Production 2010 to 2013 (f) in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012 % change
% change
2013 (f)
% change
Africa
80.1
79.5
-0.8
89.5
12.5
101.0
12.9
America
367.2
482.7
31.5
488.1
1.1
490.0
0.4
Asia
504.8
662.4
31.2
732.5
10.6
780.0
6.5
Europe
325.4
361.5
11.1
343.5
-5.0
377.7
9.9
Oceania
298.4
346.1
16.0
375.8
8.6
406.0
8.0
Total
1575.8
1932.3
22.6
2029.4
5.0
2154.7
6.2
(f) forecast October 2012; Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Production 2010 to 2013 (f) in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012 % change
% change
2013 (f)
% change
Africa
36.0
36.4
1.0
41.7
14.6
56.5
35.6
America
229.0
272.4
18.9
295.2
8.4
332.0
12.5
Asia
538.0
628.7
16.9
724.4
15.2
750.0
3.5
Europe
501.6
525.1
4.7
511.6
-2.6
509.0
-0.5
Oceania
141.4
150.2
6.2
176.5
17.5
201.5
14.2
Total
1446.0
1612.7
11.5
1749.4
8.5
1849.0
5.7
(f) forecast October 2012; Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Usage 2010 to 2013 (f) in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012 % change
% change
2013 (f)
% change
Africa
24.0
23.9
-0.4
25.3
5.9
27.2
7.5
America
153.2
165.0
7.7
168.7
2.2
180.3
6.9
Asia
929.4
1050.6
13.0
1105.7
5.2
1170.0
5.8
Europe
355.9
364.5
2.4
359.3
-1.4
374.9
4.3
Oceania
2.7
2.7
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.8
3.7
1465.2
1606.7
9.7
1661.7
3.4
1755.2
5.6
Total
(f) forecast October 2012; Asia adjusted in March 2013.
The impact of Asia and China Nickel Usage (Consumption) tonnes 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000
1,000,000
World ex-Asia
800,000 600,000
Asia ex-China
400,000
China
200,000 0 2005
Asia: 47% China: 15%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Asia: 66% China: 46%
Nickel Product Substitution • Europe & North America: – Nickel scrap units are replacing primary nickel in not only stainless steel, but also in alloyed steel and high nickel alloys where possible.
• China PR: – Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is replacing primary nickel and to some extent stainless steel scrap due to cost and easy availability.
• India: – Nickel scrap units are increasing faster than primary nickel in stainless steel.
• Conclusion: – The nickel market is changing all the time and currently nickel supply and demand is working differently around the world with China developing the usage of NPI and Europe, India & North America is going the scrap route more and more.
Comments • What effect will the new nickel projects currently coming on stream and ramping up have on the market? • Nickel pig iron production and usage in China: – what effect would that have on the world nickel market, including ore availability, price and scrap? • Will nickel remain an attractive investment object and store of value in the future?
ILZSG Overview
Intergovernmental organization set up within the UN system
Significant level of industry representation
Established by UN in 1959 in New York
Moved to London in 1977
From start of 2006 ILZSG, ICSG & INSG co-located in Lisbon, Portugal
www.icsg.org
www.insg.org 38 38
ILZSG Membership
Membership open to any country involved in lead and/or zinc production, usage, or trade.
30 members (>85% of global lead/zinc industry): Australia
Germany
Morocco
Serbia
Belgium
India
Namibia
South Africa
Brazil
Iran
Netherlands
Sweden
Bulgaria
Ireland
Norway
Thailand
Canada
Italy
Peru
United States
China
Japan
Poland
Finland
Korea Rep. Mexico
Portugal
European Community
France
Russian Fed. 39 39
ILZSG Main Publications
50% Discount For companies based in member countries
Lead and Zinc Statistics: ILZSG’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin
Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects 2013
Study on Chinese Zn First Use Market 2012
The By-Products of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel
Indian Lead Market 2012
The Market for Lead: Fundamentals Driving Change 2012
World Directory: Primary and Secondary Lead Plants 2011
Environment and Health Controls on Lead 2011
Environment and Health Controls on Zinc 2011
China Lead Acid Battery Market (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
China Zinc Recycling Industry (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM) 40
World Zinc Reserves 2011
Resources: about 1900 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserve Base 480 Mt Not to scale
Reserves 250 Mt contained zinc metal
Mine Production 13.0 Mt
Sources: USGS, ILZSG 41
World Zinc Reserves 2011 Breakdown •
Despite increased consumption of zinc produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more zinc available to the world than at any other time in the past.
China 17% Australia 22%
Source: USGS
Peru 7% Kazakhstan 5%
Mexico 7%
Other 35%
USA 5% Canada 2%
Mexico accounts for 7% of World Zinc Reserves 42
Falling Lead and Zinc Mine Grades % Zn
% Pb
7,5
2,8
Zn (LHS)
7,3
2,7
7,1
Pb (RHS)
2,6
6,9 2,5
6,7 6,5
2,4
6,3
2,3
6,1 2,2 5,9 2,1
5,7 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
5,5 2000
2 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f 43
Distribution of Lead Metal Supply 2011
2001 Other 13%
Australia Korea 4%
Mexico 3%
China 15%
3%
Japan 5% Europe 30%
Europe Mexico Australia Korea 4% Japan 17% 3% 2% 2% Canada Other 3% 12%
USA 13% USA 23%
Canada 4%
China 44%
Source: ILZSG 44
Selected Lead Mine Openings/Expansions 2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration) Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG
Mine
Annual Capacity
Open
(Pb metal contained)
George Fisher, Australia* Magellan, Australia* Potosi , Australia* Keke Tale, China* Kayar, India* Garpenburg, Sweden* Tala Hamza, Algeria Admiral Bay, Australia Browns Oxide Project, Australia Browns Sulphide Project, Australia McArthur River (expansion), Australia Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia
120,000t 85,000t 14,000t 15,000t 15,000t 50,000t 36,000t 350,000t 70,000t 150,000t 93,000t 200,000t
2012 (36kt expansion) 2013 (reopening) 2012 (new) 2012 (new) 2013 (new) 2012 (20kt expansion)
45
Zinc Mine Supply 1963-2013f
'000 tonnes
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
2000 1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013f 46
Distribution of Zinc Mine Supply 2011
2001 Europe 12.0%
Mexico 4.8%
India 2.4%
Peru 10.3%
Other 34.8% Australia Australi 13.7%
China 20.1%
Europe 8.0%
Other 26.3%
Mexico 4.9%
India 6.4%
Australia 11.4%
Peru 9.7%
China 33.3%
Source: ILZSG 47
Selected Zinc Mine Openings/Expansions 2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration) Mine
Annual Capacity
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG
George Fisher, Australia* Perkoa, Burkina Faso* Bracemac-McLeod, Canada* Keke Tale, China* Valardena, Mexico* Garpenburg, Sweden* Tala Hamza, Algeria Admiral Bay, Australia Dugald River, Australia McArthur River (expansion), Australia Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia Panorama, Australia Gamsburg, South Africa Ozernoye, Russia
Open
Zn Metal contained
215,000t 95,000t 90,000t 40,000t 90,000t 50,000t 164,000t 450,000t 200,000t 380,000t 300,000t 185,000t 350,000t 350,000t
2012 (64kt expansion) 2013 (new) 2013 (new) 2012 (new) 2013 (reactivation) 2012 (20kt expansion)
48
World Lead Demand Forecast Annual Change 7.0%
ILZSG Forecast
6.0% 5.0%
• 2012
3.4 %
4.0%
3.0%
• 2013
3,3%
2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG 49
World Lead Mine Supply Forecast Annual Change 12.0%
ILZSG Forecast • 2012
10.9 %
• 2013
2.8%
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG 50
World Lead Metal Supply Forecast Annual Change 8.0%
ILZSG Forecast
7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
• 2012
• 2013
2.9 %
4.0% 3.0%
3,8%
2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2009
20103
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
51
Lead Metal World Balance 200
'000 tonnes
150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200
Source: ILZSG
-250
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f 52
Zinc Stocks and Prices Oct 2006 – Oct 2012 2200
'000 tonnes
US $ per tonne monthly average
2000 1800
5000 4500 4000
1600
3500
1400
3000
1200 2500 1000 2000
800
1500
600 400
1000
200
500 Source: ILZSG / LME
0
Oct-06
0
Oct-07
SRB+SHEFE
Oct-08
Oct-09
Producers+Consumers+LME
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Zinc LME Cash Settlement Price 53
World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast Annual Change
ILZSG Forecast • 2012
• 2013
–0.3 %
3.8%
14.0%
9.0%
4.0%
-1.0%
-6.0% 2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG 54
World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast Annual Change 7.5%
ILZSG Forecast
5.0%
• 2012
5.0 %
2.5%
• 2013
2.7%
0.0%
-2.5% 2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG 55
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast Annual Change
ILZSG Forecast
14.0% 12.0% 10.0%
•
2012
–2.0 %
8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
•
2013 4.8%
2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013
Source: ILZSG 56
Zinc Metal World Balance 400
'000 tonnes
300 200 100
0 -100 -200 Source: ILZSG
-300 -400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f 57
Next Study Group Meetings in Lisbon, Portugal ● 22-23 April 2013
International Nickel Study Group
● Morning 24 April 2013
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
● 2.00pm 24 April 2013
Joint Study Groups Seminar “Financial Aspects of the Metals Industry: Price Volatility, Investor Activity and Project Financing”
● 25-26 April 2013
International Copper Study Group 58
