Oct 26, 2017 - Contractual. Social ... (Minor). * Data about Egyptian market and suppliers in this field not too much.(Minor) ... Increase company wotk capacity.
10/26/2017
Risk Management By: Dr. Mohamed Darwish
Project Risk Management Project Risk Management Is the systematic process of Identifying, Analyzing, and Responding to project risk Maximizing the probability and consequences of positive events & Minimizing the probability and consequences of adverse events To Project Objectives
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Major Processes Planning Risk Management Planning
Risk Identification
Controlling
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Risk Response Planning
Risk Monitoring & Control
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Integrating Risk with other project management functions Integration Scope
Communication Expectations
Quality
Life cycle Environ. Variables
Requirements Standards
Time Objectives
Time
Project Risk
Cost Objective s
Data Exchange Accuracy
Availability Productivity
HR
Services Performance
Procurement
Cost
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Risk An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objective The severity of any risk can be defined in terms of two quantities: • Likelihood: The extent to which the risk effects are likely to occur. • Impact (Consequence): The effect that a risk will have on the project if it occurs.
Risk Management Planning Risk Management Planning The process of deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project
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Risk Management Plan Describes how risk identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, response planning, monitoring, and control will be structured and performed during the project life cycle. Timing
Methodology Roles and Responsibilities
Reporting Formats
Budgeting
Scoring and interpretation
Tracking
Risk Identification Involves determining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics
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Risk Categories Risks that may affect the project for better or worse can be identified and organized into categories Macro
Project
Managerial
Environment
Target
Team
Market
Design
Control
Political
Procurement
Funding
Financial
Technical
Contractual
Social
Job Site
Act of God
Information-Gathering Techniques Interviewing ( Nominal Group Technique)
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Information-Gathering Techniques SWOT Analysis Internal Factors External Factors Opportunities (O) Threats (T)
Strengths (S)
Weaknesses (W)
SO
WO
Growth
Cooperate
ST
WT
Stability
Mitigation
V - SWOT Analysis for Hospital Project SWOT Worksheet
Internal strength
* New project type.(Minor)
* Different individual skilled existing.(Major)
* Data base on similar projects not available.(Major)
* Construction Equipments available.(Minor)
* Data about Egyptian market and suppliers in this field not too much.(Minor)
High ----- 70
* Management interest for open new market.(Minor)
* Funds and cash flow problems.(Major)
Low ----- 30
* Previous experience for large projects. (Major)
* Staff available has no experience in this industry group.(Minor)
* Good Company Reputation.(Minor)
* Weak skills leadership.(Major)
Major -----70
Minor ----- 30
Opportunities
S-O Alternatives
W-O Alternatives
*Support of government.(High)
*Site facility existing.(water,elec…est..)
* Design criteria not clear for the government.
* High felt need of users.(High)
*Staff willingness for learning new skills.
* Increase company wotk capacity.
* Good contact / sucsessful networking.
* Interaction with professional organizations.
* Little competition.(Low)
External
Weakness
* Staff Trained for project management techniques.(Major)
* Available project funds. (High)
Threats
* Positive trends in company field that will create more jobs (e.g.,growth,globalization,technical advances)
S-T Alternatives
W-T Alternatives
* Lack of budget.(High)
* Payments of incentive staff based on performance
* Review of equipment list by government for new technique
* Low price rate.(low)
* Starting a new career for hospital projects.
* Limited donation funded.
* Delay for imported equipments.(High)
* Competitors with better job hunting more skills
* Competitors with superior skills,experience and knowledge.
* Traffic problems.(Low)
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V - SWOT Analysis for Hospital Project SWOT Worksheet Threats
S-T Alternatives
W-T Alternatives
* Lack of budget.(High)
* Payments of incentive staff based on performance
* Review of equipment list by government for new technique
* Low price rate.(low)
* Starting a new career for hospital projects.
* Limited donation funded.
* Delay for imported equipments.(High)
* Competitors with better job hunting more skills
* Competitors with superior skills,experience and knowledge.
* Traffic problems.(Low)
6 x 70 4 x 30 5 x 70 5 x 30
420 120 350 150
External
540 500
Qualitative Risk Analysis The process of assessing the impact and likelihood of identified risks Prioritizes risks according to their potential effect on project objectives
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Probability-Impact Matrix
Quantitative Risk Analysis Process aims to analyze numerically the probability of each risk and its consequence on project objectives
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Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Status
Payoff
Probability %
Good Market - Good Quality
80,000
15
Good Market - Poor Quality
50,000
45
Poor Market - Good Quality
20,000
25
Poor Market - Poor Quality
-20,000
15
EMV = 80,000*0.15 + 50,000*0.45 + 20,000*0.25 + (-20,000)*0.15 = LE 36,500
Risk Response Planning The process of developing options and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project’s objectives Risk response planning must be : Appropriate to the severity of the risk Cost effective in meeting the challenge Timely to be successful Realistic within the project context Agreed upon by all parties involved Owned by a responsive person
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Risk Response Strategies
Mitigation (Corrective action)
Avoidance (Prevention)
Acceptance (Accept consequences)
Transference (Shift Responsibility)
Risk Transference
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Risk Monitoring and Control The process of keeping track of the identified risks, monitoring residual risks and identifying new risks, ensuring the execution of risk plans, and evaluating their effectiveness in reducing risk
Workaround Plans Unplanned responses to emerging risks that were previously unidentified or accepted
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Risk Form Risk ID: 001
B u si n ess A rea : C emen t Fa ct o ri es
R a i sed B y : A y ma n G a b a lla h – C o n t ra ct Pro j ect N a me: S i n a i W h i t e C emen t M a n a g er D a t e R a i sed : A u g u st 9 9 Pro j ect M a n a g er: M i ch elle M o n fleu r R i sk D escri p t i o n : A s w e si g n ed a s a ma i n co n t ra ct o r w i t h t h e cli en t so w e h a v e li a b i li t i es a g a i n st t h e mech a n i ca l d esi g n w h i ch w i ll b e d o n e co mp let ely b y FLS mi sh ( eq u i p men t su p p li er) a t D en ma rk. In ca se o f a n y d esi g n mi st a ke, li ke fa i li n g t o a ch i ev e t h e req u i red ki ln d a i ly p ro d u ct i o n , w e w o u ld b e resp o n si b le. Li keli h o o d : Imp a ct : High C ri t i ca l Imp a ct D escri p t i o n : In ca se o f d esi g n mi st a ke, effect i n g t h e d a i ly fa ct o ry p ro d u ct i o n , w e w o u ld n o t b e a b le t o H A N D O V ER t h e p la n t t o t h e cli en t a s i t i s a t u rn key co n t ra ct , t h i s w o u ld co n clu d e t o a b i g fu ss w i t h t h e clien t w h o w o u ld keep o u r ret en t i o n g u a ra n t ees. R eco mmen d ed Prev en t a t i v e A ct i o n s: W e sh o u ld h i re o r o b li g a t e t h e d esi g n er t o h i re a n i n t ern a t i o n a l d esi g n o ffi ce t o rev i ew a n d en su re t h e t ech n i ca l d esi g n . R eco mmen d ed C o n t i n g en t A ct i o n s: W e sh o u ld g et t h e equ i p men t su p p li er sh a ri n g o u r g u a ra n t ee a n d ret en t i o n w i t h t h e cli en t a n d t o ma ke h i m o b li g a t ed a b o u t a n y co rrect a ct i o n req u i red d u e t o d esi g n mi st a ke. S u p p o rt i n g D o cu men t a t i o n : C o n t ra ct sp eci a l co n d i t i o n s
S i g n a t u re:
Da t e:
En g . A y ma n G a b a lla h - C o n t ra ct M a n a g er
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P L E A S E F O RW A RD T O T HE P RO J E C T M A N A G E R F O R P RO J E C T RE V I E W G RO UP S UBM I S S I O N
RISK REGISTER Preventative Actions Description Likelihood of Impact (L/M/H)
Impact Preventative Prevent. (L/M/H/C) Actions Owners
Contingency Actions
Prevent. Contingency Conting. Outcomes Actions Owners
Conting. Outcomes
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RISK CATEGORY 1.Risk ID
2.Risk
3.Expected Date
5.Impact HIGH 6.Probability LOW 7.Overall Level MEDIUM
4.Cause of Risk 8.Consequences if risk occurred
9.Risk Response
10.Contingency
Risk Track Sheet Risk No.
Closed
Severity Y/N
Date
In Hand Y/N
Date
Waiting Trigger Y/N
Action Plan Comments Reference
Date
R0001 R0002 R0003 R0004 R0005 R0006 R0007 R0008 R0009 R0010 R0011 R0012 R0013
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Thank You
Thank You
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