of fast changing technologies in various engineering systems, .... (Electrical) from M.S. University of Baroda, India in 1963; and M.E. (Power System Eng.), ... and Quality Management, Quality, Reliability and Information Technology, and is also ...
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 60, NO. 1, MARCH 2011
59
Special Section on Reliability and Risk Assessment of Complex Systems ELIABILITY assessment and probabilistic risk assessment have considerable common grounds in their probabilistic approach of analysis. These analyses are the most efficient, effective tools to assist decision making for safety and risk management of complex engineering systems, such as in aerospace, 1nuclear power plants, and chemical process industries. Reliability and risk studies are increasingly being used for safe, economical, and efficient design, operation, and maintenance of complex engineering systems. With the use of fast changing technologies in various engineering systems, there is an increasing demand for refinement and improvement in reliability and risk modeling, and analytic tools. Sophisticated modeling is necessary to account for complex dependencies, environments, and aging to ensure confidence and accuracy of results. Also, increasing use of computer-based systems entails systems and software and hardware interactions that can impose additional hazards, and therefore require special considerations. The communication of analysis results to the decision makers and managers emphasizes the need for interpretation of results to provide practical implications, and impacts. The objective of the present special section on reliability and risk of complex systems is an attempt to present a state-of-the-art on new tools, techniques, applications, approaches, and surveys related to various aspects of reliability, and risk analysis and management. This section is by no means a complete coverage of the vast area, but it is intended to reflect the direction in which the new developments are taking place. Lin constructs a time-based multistate network composed of multistate edges to study network reliability. A performance index to measure the transmission ability of a complex multistate system is floated. Reed et al. introduce a new binary decision diagram based method that is shown to provide improved efficiency and accuracy in the repeat analysis of phased mission systems, taking care of the reliability analysis of large systems with multiple failure mode components without considerable computational expense. Basic reliability measures are derived for multi-state systems under a discrete time semi-Markovian hypothesis, demonstrated on series, parallel, k-out-of-n:F, and consecutive k-out-of-n:F systems by Chryssaphinou et al. Loh et al. addresses the most reliable edge-disjoint paths with delay constraint problems in communication networks. Zio and Sansavini carry out the modeling of interdependencies among network systems, and of their effects on failure propagation within the simulation framework of a failure
R
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TR.2011.2110210
cascade process. This work accounts for the infrastructure interdependency stemming from the functional and logical relations among individual components in different distributed systems. Gargama and Chaturvedi propose two fuzzy logic based models for prioritizing failure modes, specifically intended to overcome limitations of traditional FMEA. A new, basic concept referred to as “a specific resistance of a flow path” is introduced by Todinov. This concept is essentially the percentage of losses from component failures for a given flow path from the source to the sink of a repairable flow network. Using this concept, a new fundamental theorem related to maximizing the flow in a repairable flow network with arbitrary topology is formulated and proved. Pham proposes a risk-cost optimization model, from which the optimal lifetime threshold value can help the practitioners and policy-decision makers of healthcare organizations, including insurance companies, to careful design and perform the cost-benefit trade-off for short term and long term related healthcare policies and plans. Newman et al. investigate the electric power transmission blackouts as complex dynamical systems, assessing how the complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. Fan et al. address the problem of predictive maintenance of repairable systems with dependent failure modes and resource constraints through a cooperative predictive maintenance model. Hsu and Huang present an adaptive reliability analysis using path testing for complex component-based software systems. Tokuno and Yamada discuss the performability evaluation model for computer-based systems, introducing the concept of codesign. Computer systems consisting of one hardware subsystem and one software subsystem are considered, and both hardware and software failure and restoration characteristics are accounted for. Ma and Krings introduce a new dynamic hybrid fault modeling approach for reliability and fault tolerance analyses. The approach extends traditional hybrid fault models and their relevant constraints in Agreement algorithms with survival analysis, and evolutionary game theory. Ahmadi and Kumar develop a cost rate function to identify the optimum interval and frequency of inspection and restoration of an aircraft’s repairable components which are undergoing aging, and whose failures are hidden, i.e. are detectable by inspection or upon demand. Huh and Haldar propose a hybrid risk assessment approach for complex structural systems by intelligently integrating the
0018-9529/$26.00 © 2011 IEEE
60
stochastic finite element method, and the response surface method. We thank all the authors for their contributions to this special section. Special thanks are due to several reviewers whose painstaking and extremely insightful and thorough review with constructive suggestions helped improve the presentation. We also like to thank Professor Kuo and Dr. Rupe for the opportu-
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 60, NO. 1, MARCH 2011
nity to make this special section possible, and for help at various stages. KRISHNA B. MISRA, Guest Editor AJIT KUMAR VERMA, Guest Editor
Krishna B. Misra has been working in the area of reliability engineering (started at IIT-Roorkee) since 1967. He made efforts to popularize reliability and safety concepts in India, both in industry and technical institutions. He also founded the Reliability Engineering Center at IIT, Kharagpur in 1983; and founded the first-ever master’s program at IIT Kharagpur. Dr. Misra is also the founder Editor-in-Chief of International Journal of Performability Engineering (http://www.ijpe-online.com). Dr. Misra is a recipient of the first Lal C. Verman Award of the Institution of Electronics and Telecommunications Engineering in 1983 for his pioneering research work and education in Reliability Engineering in India including a plaque from the IEEE Reliability Society. Prof. Misra is a fellow of Indian Academy of Sciences, Indian National Academy of Engineering, Institution of Electronics & Telecommunications (India), Institutions of Engineers (India), and Safety & Reliability Society (UK). He had been vice president of System Society of India, of which he also serves as a life member. Krishna Misra received his B.E. (Electrical) from M.S. University of Baroda, India in 1963; and M.E. (Power System Eng.), and Ph.D. (Reliability Eng.) degrees in 1966, and 1970, both from the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee (India). He joined IIT-Roorkee, and became professor in 1976. Subsequently, he moved over to IIT Kharagpur in 1980, and worked there for 25 years until his retirement in 2005. He has been Director of North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Itanagar; and also worked as Director-grade-Scientist at National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Nagpur. He has worked in Federal Republic of Germany at four different institutions: Technical University-Munich (with Professor Dr. R. Baumann’s: 1972–73), GRS-Garching (with Professor Dr. A. Birkhofer:1973–74), RWTH-Aachen (Professor Dr. H.-.J. Zimmermann:1978–79), and Kernforschungszentrum, Karlsruhe, Germany (1987–88) as Guest Professor. On invitation, he has delivered lectures in USA, and in several European countries which include England, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Poland, and Sweden. Dr. Misra has published over 250 technical papers in reputed international journals. Professor Misra has also served as Associate Editor of IEEE TRANSACTIONS RELIABILITY, and a reviewer to IEEE TRANSACTIONS RELIABILITY since 1969; and has also served on editorial boards of several other international journals connected with reliability. In 1992, Professor Misra authored “Reliability Analysis and Prediction: A Methodology Oriented Treatment,” and “Principles of Reliability Engineering;” and edited “New Trends in System Reliability Evaluation” in 1993, ”Clean Production: Environmental and Economic Perspectives” in 1995, and finally a “Handbook of Performability Engineering” in 2008.
Ajit Kumar Verma joined IIT Bombay, India in 1988; and is currently a Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering with research focus in Reliability Engineering and Quality Management. He has supervised or co-supervised 21 Ph.D., and 75 Masters theses in the area of Software Reliability, Reliable Computing, PSR, RCM and PSA. He has executed various research projects to promote industry interface, and has been course coordinator for industry CEPs like Six Sigma, Software Inspections, Competency Tracking System and Software Reliability for IT industries. He has jointly edited books on Reliability Engineering and Quality Management, Quality, Reliability and Information Technology, and is also an author of book titled Fuzzy Reliability Engineering-Concepts and Applications. He has over 165 publications in various journals and conferences. He is a senior member of IEEE, and a life fellow of IETE. He is an Editor of the International Journal of Performability Engineering. He is the Editor-inChief of OPSEARCH, and is on the editorial board of international journals like Quality Assurance, International Journal of Automation & Computing, Springer publications (Associate Editor), DQM Communications, International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering, World Scientific.
