Structured Training Programme on

Dr V Jayaraman Former Director, NRSC

Structured Training Programme on

“ Commercial Business Opportunities in Space in Globalised Context ”

ISRO Hq & ANTRIX Co. Ltd July 26, 2016

I

EO Transgressing from Qualitative to Quantitative

IRS

Source: NASA Earth Science

Atmospheric chemistry instruments Atmospheric temperature & humidity sounders Cloud Profilers & Rain Radars Earth Radiation Budget Radiometers High resolution optical imagers Imaging multi-spectral radiometers (Visible/IR) Imaging multi-spectral radiometers (passive microwave) Imaging microwave radars LIDARs (Backscatter; DIAL; Doppler) Multiple direction/ polarisation Instruments. Ocean Colour instruments Radar altimeters Scatterometers Gravity, magnetic field & geodynamic instruments

Cartosat 2c BHASKARA 1& 2

SARAL

RISAT -1

IRS 1A/1B

Megha Tropiques IRS 1C/1D

TES Oceansat 1 &2

Resourcesat 1 & 2

Cartosat 1

Cartosat 2A

Cartosat 2B

Land & Water RESOURCESAT-2

Large Scale Mapping CARTOSAT-2, 2A, 2B, 2C

OCEAN

Weather & Climate INSAT-3A

OCEANSAT-2

KALPANA MEGHATROPIQUES RISAT-1 CARTOSAT-1

1 KM

SARAL

IMAGING CAPABILITY

INSAT-3D

0.65 M

Resourcesat-2A, SCATSAT-1, Cartosat 2 Series, Cartosat-3, Oceansat-3, INSAT3DR, GISAT, NISAR planned for continuity of services & new capability

PSLV C 34

Space Infrastructure Community Resource Space Convergent Technology Space Applications Satellite Communications, Remote Sensing, Meteorology, Navigation, Space Science

(with Cloud Computing/Crowd Sourcing & Social Networking)

Space Conduit & Content

Space ‘Last Mile Outreach’

Growth Engine

Bandwidth creation, Spectrum use Broadband Networks, VSATs, DTH, … Enhanced Observations , DWR, AWS,…

Community Empowerment

Broadcasting, Interactive Development, Communication, Weather, Distance Education, Telemedicine, Village Resource Centres, Kiosks ....

Governance inputs

Natural Resources, Disaster Risk Management, Environment, Climate Change, Infrastructure, Info. Systems, Decision Support, …

Govt. – Industry – Academia Triad is the key

Sustainable Development

Space products & services basically differ from normal goods. Globally, Space facilities, ground stations and launch vehicles are largely government infrastructure belonging to quasi-public goods category needing assured public investments. Space system could be classified as complex products system (CoPS) characterised by following features: • Highly concentrated demand & supply structures (e.g., oligopoly, monopsony) • A few large transactions • Direct government regulation & administration of transactions • Negotiated prices between suppliers and customers • Imperfect competitive interactions among economic agents • Challenges of R&D to Operational to Commercial products & services

A few private entities like Thales Alenia Space, Airbus Defence & Space, and OHB in Europe; and Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, and Space Systems/Loral in USA dominate the global market for large spacecraft systems. Highly concentrated market with high Unit costs and limited frequency & a few market transactions. This situation may be fast changing !!! Many Small Satellite players have started challenging the traditional majors! Source: The Metamorphosis of the World’s Space Economy:; Cairn Info, Journal of Innovation Economics and Management, 2016/2

1957-1980

2000 and beyond):

• Space transactions under the central control of

• Space industries started competing for

commercial markets. • Emergence of new space nations and international competition between private companies gave stimulus to growth of the space business ecosystem. • Diffusion of technology further facilitated 1980- 2000 by technological innovation, deregulation and privatisation of national telecommunication networks, navigation. • Advances in satellite payloads’ miniaturisation and • Disruptive Technologies ( Internet, Social innovation in ground stations’ capabilities. • Space systems became smaller, cheaper, and lighter than networking, Mobile proliferation) inherited technology. Decreasing spacecraft unit costs and • Affordable access to satellite services enabled promising reducing time scales for development, business opportunities (e.g. mobile telephony, broadcasting, GIS) test & experimentation, large-scale • Creation of multinational organisations towards Small satellite constellations open commercialising space assets (e.g. INTELSAT in USA; ways to larger production techniques EUTELSAT in Europe, INSAT in India) , and and enhanced industry participation • Technology induced an alteration of space regulation and & commercialisation. policy frameworks (e.g. ITAR, UN Policies revisited) governments & core industry groups. • Cold war age and dominated by USA & USSR. • Commercial services and applications nascent, economically & technologically underdeveloped.

Source: The Metamorphosis of the World’s Space Economy: Investigating Global Trends..; Cairn Info, Journal of Innovation Economics and Management, 2016/2

Waterfall model

“Vee” Model

Attributed to NASA, which in 1988 saw a benefit in bending the waterfall model into the “V ” shape for software development. Later, adopted for larger systems engineering of space systems. Each one of these branches has a window for business openings! Source: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12065/pre-milestone-a-and-early-phase-systems-engineering-a-retrospective

http://www.rpmitconsulting.com/ BusinessAnalysis.aspx

Many specialised entities in EO chain. Scope & Challenges for innovation and Business Opportunities

Algorithm, Software

Payload

Platform

Satellite Ops & Data Acq

Data Processing

Data Analytics, Assimilation

Customer Services

Data Storage

Technology captures observations. These change our understanding. New understanding changes practices. Practices drive changes in technology, needing more data!! Source: Third Nature

Source: The Complex EO data utilization chain with functional links (Adapted from National Academy of Sciences; http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11187.html

Research to Operational to Commercialisation in EO is an unenviable task, needing constant watch on all the links of the Chain. Opens up challenging business opportunities. Source: Remote Sensing: The Image Chain approach, John R Scott, Oxford University Press, 2007

Challenge of Twin Valleys of Death Source: Royal Aeronautical Society evidence to UK Parliament, Feb 2012

Source: Satellite observations of the Earth’s Environment, National Academies Press 2000

The first in bringing technology to maturity for space and ground infrastructure, and generating user friendly operational products & services; the second in commercially exploiting them in applications. Dynamics of Technology Push on the one side, and the Market Pull on the other side need to be balanced. Not all the R&D will become Operational and not all Operational products will be Commercialised. Challenge is to make the transition pathways quicker and efficient. EO DIKW Chain is more complex and Challenging Process involving many stake-holders

Continuing advances – High Resolutions, Stereo –viewing & all weather capability, etc. SmallSats & UAVs have made dramatic entry

Big data; IOT; mobile platforms; social networks; Op Source tools; Cloud Computing and Crowd Sourcin lead to quantum jump in value addition to geoinformatics services. “

“ 100 + ” Progress in EO since Rio Earth Summit 1992

Mapping the Earth’s Surface

:100+ times more accurate than 10 years ago

Measuring the sinking of cities

:1/100+ of a metre accuracy in surface subsidence

Predicting El Nino

:100+ days early warning

Storms and floods

:100+ hours advance risk warning

Earth watch

:100+ new satellite sensors for sustainable development (Source: www.esa.int)

Economics of Geospatial (Remote Sensing , GIS & SPS) Accruing benefits, both direct and indirect, in terms of social and environmental gains; especially – when technology is fully adapted & absorbed

Total number of satellites launched from 1958 till July 2014 : 6907 Currently in Orbit (July 2014) : 3921 Active satellites (Jan 2014)

: 1167

(40% GEO; 50% LEO) (Source : UN OOSA) (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

Total number of satellites launched from Oct 1957 till Dec 2013 : 7095

( Source: NASA Space Science Data Centre)

EO Satellites launched since ERTS in 1972 : 197 Functional at end-2013

:

98

( Source: Alan Belward et al)

Number of EO satellites as on November 2013 : 107 (with 286 instruments) Planned for next 15 years

: 240 ( 80 in GEO)

Planned in next 5 years : 90

(Source: CEOS)

India

(Source: Alan Belward et al)].

$ 300-500 M, 4 -6T class, 15 years mission life telecom satellite with $1 Billion revenue is lumped together with a $ 1-5 M 10 Kg CubeSats when it comes to regulating frequency rights and orbital-debris-mitigation issues! Source: The state of the satellite industry in 5 charts; Peter B de Selding,t Space News Magazine, June 20 2016

? Market driver Key International Vendors -Widening application base of EO satellites - Strategic, public good & commercial demands Airbus D&S; DigitalGlobe; e-GEOS; DMC Intl. Imaging; MDA; Market challenge - Very HR ; Frequent revisits & Real time delivery ImageSat Intl.;Terra Bella (Skybox Imaging); BlackBridge (Planet Labs); - Adoption of UAV-based Earth Observation Deimos Imaging (UrtheCast), Spire - Many counties joining the EO business Global, BlackSky; GeoOptics; Geosys; Market trend PlanetiQ; Planet Labs; Satellogic; SSTL, - Explosive growth in SmallSats …. - Increased lift-off of nano & micro satellites Source:, “Global Satellite-based Earth Observation Market 2016-2020” - Fast Market Research TechNavio report

> 3,600 SmallSats expected over next 10 years. EO segment

expected to launch 1400 satellites (coming from PlanetLabs, Spire Global, BlackSky and Satellogic)

Anticipated market value : $22 Billion (manufacture and launch), a 76-percent increase over that of 2006-2015. .

Source: Euroconsult report on “Prospects for the Small Satellite Market”, July 2016.

. Large Scale private Industry participation. ‘Decreased barriers to entry’. SmallSats and UAV entry the game changer. • Separating out private & Govt.; and public good & commercial becoming difficult in EO. Pleiades satellites operated by French Govt is made commercially available thru Airbus D&S. TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X are managed by a PPP arrangement between DLR and Airbus D&S. Cosmo-SkyMed commercialised by e-GEOS. • ‘Who does it‘ is not the criterion, but ‘what is done’ is ! •National Policies drive the market. Source: http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/the-state-of-the-satellite-industry-in-5-charts/

IKONOS was the first sub-metre Commercial satellite launched in 1999 by Space Imaging. First launch failed in 1994. During the intervening period, EOSAT ( Space Imaging later) used IRS-1C& 1D. Space Imaging was acquired by Orbimage in 2005, and alter renamed GeoEye. GeoEye merged with Digital Globe in 2013 to get the promised funding from NGIA under Enhanced View ($ 7.35 B) for WorldView 3& GeoEye 2. But funding didn’t materialize.

WorldView 3 was launched in 2014 and GeoEye -2 was kept in storage. Now, it is planned to be launched as WorldView 4 in Sept 2016.

0.46 m Res. from WorldView 2

WorldView 2 0.46m, 2009

WorldView 1 0.46m, 2007

IKONOS 1 m,1999

QuickBird 0.65 m, 2001

GeoEye 1 0.46 m, 2008

Launched on Aug 13, 2014 0.31 M PAN; 1.24 M MSS; 3.7 M SWIR 11 Bits Radiometry

$ 650 Million Mission, 2800 Kg

WorldView 3 satellite will be able to show

"key features such as manholes and mailboxes" says DigitalGlobe

87% of DigitalGlobe business comes from Government

USA has relaxed the restrictions on resolution of commercially available satellite images from 0.5 m to 0.25 m in public domain. WorldView 4 (earlier GeoEye 2) costing $ 835 M, planned for launch in Sept 2016.

Deimos-2 0.75m resolution imagery with a 12 km swath and a high revisit rate. Receive imagery data from request to delivery in three hours.

Acquired in July 2015

Deimos-1 22m resolution. 3-band multispectral imagery with a wide swath of 650 km

Iris UHD 1m full-colour video from ISS that are ~60 seconds long. Deimos-2 monitors SpaceX SES-9 launch campaign

Iris image of Iran’s Imam Khomeini space launch facility.

Theia 5m resolution, 4-band multispectral imagery from ISS, ~100 km x 50 km in size. Planned •Urthecast OptiSAR Constellation with 16 Satellites: 8 tandem pairs in 2 orbital planes. Separated by only a few minutes, each pair provides 1m X-band & 5m L-band imagery. Optical P/L: 0.5m GSD & 0.4m colour video 30 fps. •UrtheDaily constellation of 8 more medium resolution optical satellites

APIs and developer tools that help access, integrate, and analyze Earth imagery data complement the space systems

NanoRacks CubeSat Deployer

Flock 1 (28 DoveSats) from Planet Labs launched from ISS in 2014

In 1908, German apothecary Julius Neubronner patented pigeon photography. Said to have been tried in World War 1 in 1914

PSLV-C34 launched 12 Dove satellites (Flock 2P)

Planet Labs raised $183 million in Venture Capital financing by May 2015, and later acquired BlackBridge & its RapidEye constellation.

DoveSats from ISS

Can you believe they are from 5 Kg DoveSats? PSLV C39 will carry 40 Doves!

30x10x10 cm CubeSats < 5 Kg, 90mm Aperture Optical; 3-5 M Res; Commercial CCD. US $ 1 Million/satellite

SEE CHANGE. CHANGE THE WORLD. Learn how global coverage and daily imagery helps you move from seeing the past to understanding what’s happening today

Source: PlanetLabs Website

Chicago’s Soldier Field stadium as seen by SkySat 3. Photo: Terra Bella

PSLV launch on June 22nd. Image on June 25th

SkySat 1 in 2013 and SkySat 2 in 2014 by Skybox Imaging. Optical payloads with 1.1 m res. Total 24 SkySats planned. Google acquired Skybox Imaging for $ 500 M in June 2014. TerraBella was formed in March 2016 as a subsidiary of Google

Mass 110 Kg

Launched by PSLV C 34, Terra Bella’s SkySat 3 Sends Back First Pictures within 72hrs after launch.

1990s saw a few Ventures-supported communications satellite systems - Iridium, Globalstar, Orbcom, and Teledesic among them - only to go bust in early 2000s. Today, much broader, more diverse base of companies makes it more attractive for investors. “ Space is becoming more

Skybox company has raised $91 million in funding from private investors. Planet Labs has $ 183 million in funding from venture capital firms as of May 2015. Acquired BlackBridge and RapidEye Constellation in July 2015.

integrated with other tech sectors ”

Spaceflight Industries has raised $18 million (June 21, 2016 ) Of the record $2.3 billion invested in space a total that the company companies in 2015, $1.8 billion is by venture expects to grow to $25 million. capital funding, which is more than the It will support Spaceflight’s efforts to acquire OpenWhere, previous 15 years combined. a geospatial business company and develop BlackSky, a • $500 million investment by several firms in constellation of Earth imaging broadband satellite constellation OneWeb, satellites

and $1 billion by Google and Fidelity in SpaceX

Source: More money, Jeff Foust, The Space Review, July 11, 2016

Global space economy in 2014 : $ 322.7 Billion* • > 60 % turn-over from Satellite Industry (incl. satellite services, manufacturing, launch facilities and ground stations) • Last decade saw a jump of 2.3 times ( $89 B in 2005 to $203 B * in 2014) • USA market share is 43% of Global market economy

Though military and institutional orders still represent a significant share, major sources of revenue currently come from commercial applications of space technology (e.g. communication, navigation, and earth observation) Source: The Metamorphosis of the World’s Space Economy: Investigating Global Trends..; Cairn Info, Journal of Innovation Economics and Management, 2016/2

•The exact figure to be ascertained. Large variations between different sources.

“ Governments remain the alpha and omega of the entire business, but there is increasing private-sector involvement ” Source: The state of the satellite industry in 5 charts; Peter B de Selding,tSpace News Magazine, June 20 2016

GPS

Satellite Based Augmentation System

GEO (Navigation Payload)

GLONASS

GPS

Galileo

Independent Navigation System

GPS

User

340 GEO INRESs

INMCC INLUS

830 GSO 550

1320 0

111.50

INRESS

GAGAN (GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation) : Not stand-alone, but a regional augmentation to GPS

IRNSS: Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System - 3 Geo-Stationary & 4 Geo-Synchronous satellites ( 29 deg Incl.)

Improves GPS accuracies (from 30m to < 6m), availability, integrity, and continuity for civil aviation.

Dependable and accurate PNT services for Defence & Critical Strategic Applications (1500 km around India)

Correction signals generated & transmitted to user through Geo- satellite (GSAT 8 & GSAT 10)

To provide 20 m accuracy over the Indian Ocean Region and