Fig. S1. Heat maps of the number of observations of frog spawning dates within 25 Ã 25-km grid-cells for each year in the period 1998â2006. Phillimore et al.
Supporting Information Phillimore et al. 10.1073/pnas.0913792107 1998
1999
2001
2002
2000
Number of observations 0 1 2-5 6-10 11-50 > 50
2004
2005
2003
2006
Fig. S1. Heat maps of the number of observations of frog spawning dates within 25 × 25-km grid-cells for each year in the period 1998–2006.
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
1 of 6
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
2 of 6
Population
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
January,
mean
January,
mean
January,
+ year
to −2.74)
to −9.91)
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
mean
January,
mean
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
year
+ subpopulation/
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
year
+ subpopulation/
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
100 km
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
100 km
to −13.74)
(−20.39
−16.5
to −10.5)
(−15.03 —
—
to −2.92)
to −9.61)
−12.95
(−6.91
(−16.82
−5.1
to −2.92)
to −9.64)
−12.91
(−7.61
−5.41
—
—
(−15.11
−12.72
to −8.97)
Population
+ population/year
January,
(−15.96
+ year
mean
−12.74
+ population/year
Population
January,
150 km
(−14.72
+ year
mean
−12.48
Population
January,
100 km
to −9.06)
+ population/
year
(−12.34
+ year
—
to −2.64)
to −11.49) −10.92
(−6.45
(−19.77
−4.11
to −11.91) −16.06
mean
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
(−6.7
−4.4
—
—
—
slope
subpopulation
Between-
(−18.57
−14.98
to −9.71)
(−17.08
−13.55
to −10.92)
(−16.27
−13.69
to −9.6)
(−13.19
−11.44
slope
population
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
100 km
50 km
definition
Population
January,
mean
January,
+ subpopulation
+ year
mean
Population
mean
effects
variable
January,
Random
Between-
(−7–0.22)
−3.57
(−7.29–0.5)
−3.61
(−7.29–1.41)
−3.25
(−7.26–1.66)
−3.35
(−7.49–1.52)
−2.8
(−7.3–1.49)
−3.06
(−7.54–1.67)
−2.98
(−8.46–0.82)
−3.6
(−8.79–0.65)
−3.68
(−8.25–0.27)
−3.83
(−7.81–0.93)
−3.52
(−8–1.03)
−3.24
slope
Year
3.43)
—
—
to −2.17)
(−4.89
−3.44
to −2.78)
(−5.32
−3.89
to −1.6)
(−4.23
—
—
(−5.52–0.05)
−2.61
2.44)
−0.43(−3.52–
(−7–0.22)
−3.57
(−7.29–0.5)
(−18.16 to −8.25) to −2.1)
−12.89
to −4.81)
(−14.17
−8.45
(−2.51
−2.31
to −1.08)
(−1.49
−1.27
to −5.99) to −1.43) to −1.33)
−3.61
(−14.04
−10.03
to −6.63)
(−13.21
−9.75
to −5.43)
(−13.66
(−1.93
−1.67
to −1.43)
(−1.94
−1.69
to −2.56)
(−2.98
−9.33
(−4.84
−2.98
to −0.92)
(−4.44
−2.64
to −0.7)
(−5.29
−2.78
to −5.7) −3.06
to −2.78) —
to −0.98)
−2.84
to −2.4)
−8.78 (−12.04
−2.97 (−3.23
−3.37 (−5.4
—
to −4.57)
(−4.67
−3.62
to −1.45)
to −1.26)
to −2.58)
(−10.38
1.03)
—
—
(−4.3–
−1.99
0.47)
(−5.19–
−2.43
—
—
—
4.31)
to −6.53) −7.38
to −1.68) −1.73
(−5.96– (−18.65 (−2.19
−0.63
to −6.34) −12.85
to −1.69) −1.91
(−6.61–
−1.06
—
—
—
(−17.56
−11.26
to −4.82)
(−15.97
−10.6
to −4.57)
(−14.88
−10.18
to −2.9)
(−12.53
−7.93
Δb Slope difference 2c
(−2.16
−1.97
to −2.63)
(−3.07
−2.87
to −2.88)
(−3.29
−3.12
to −1.71)
(−2.16
−1.94
(−1.93
−3.26
0.82)
(−8.46–
−3.6
0.65)
(−8.79–
−3.68
0.27)
(−8.25–
−3.83
0.93)
(−7.81–
−3.52
(−8–1.03)
−3.24
slope
slopea
1b
Δb Slope difference
Residual
withinpopulation
Pooled mean
(−5.9
—
—
—
—
—
—
slope
year
Subpopulation/
(−4.7
−3.73
—
—
—
—
—
slope
year
Population/
Posterior modes for slope coefficients and model fit across 60 models with varying random effects and temperature variables
Temperature
Table S1.
538,841
523,585
508,475
508,504
533,622
526,778
508,596
514,229
514,228
537,200
530,951
514,231
DIC
0.39
0.27
0.43
0.4
0.42
0.39
0.3
0.46
0.39
0.4
0.4
0.29
R2
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
3 of 6
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
January,
maximum
to −1.67)
to −2.37) (−5.78 to −2.66)
to −8.66)
+ year
−4.39
to −8.65) −12.01
(−5.95
−4.47
—
—
(−14.4
−11.84
to −7.12)
(−13.35
−10.07
to −8.33)
(−12.84
−10.19
to −7.85)
(−10.94
—
to −2.14)
to −9.61)
−9.43
(−6.94
−5.07
(−18.54
−13.92
to −2.34)
to −10.36)
(−16.31
150 km + 50 km
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
100 km
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
(−7.57
(−17.09
−4.73
—
—
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
+ 50 km
to −9.81) −13.61
+ population/year
Population
(−18.13
+ year 100 km
to −10.74) −14.39
+ population/year
−13.63
(−8.63–2.68)
−3.62
(−8.74–1.7)
−2.94
(−7.48–1.82)
−2.81
(−9.01–1.53)
−3.26
(−8.5–1.96)
−2.83
(−7.44–0.64)
−2.9
(−7.14–0.43)
−3.48
(−7.64–0.61)
−3.25
(−7.06–0.38)
−3.29
(−6.81–0.5)
—
—
—
—
—
to −1.74)
(−4.18
−2.83
to −1.97)
(−4.17
−3.05
to −1.19)
(−3.53
−2.3
to −1.62)
(−3.84
0.25
—
—
—
—
—
(−3.47–1.82)
−1.08
(−3.21–3.06)
—
2.68)
(−8.63–
−3.62
(−8.74–1.7)
−2.94
1.82)
(−7.48–
−2.81
1.53)
(−9.01–
−3.26
(−8.5–1.96)
−2.83
to −0.8)
(−4.1
−2.45
to −0.55)
(−3.81
−2.13
to −0.42)
(−4.75
−2.9
to −1.32)
(−5.12
−2.95
to −1.07) —
to −1.73) −2.8
(−4.88
(−3.69
to −0.8)
to −1.56)
to −1.76)
(−2.16
−1.98
to −1.75)
(−2.17
−1.96
to −2.68)
(−3.06
to −2.51)
(−15.98
−9.34
to −2.48)
(−14.48
−7.95
to −1.26)
(−12.57
−7.68
to −2.77) −2.85
(−12.75 (−3.16
−7.55
to −1.75) −2.98
(−11.51
−6.34
to −7.06)
(−16.8
−11.56
to −8.08)
(−15.43
−11.11
to −7.1)
(−16.27
−10.8
to −7.53)
(−14.18
−9.66
to −5.62)
(−11.16
−8.14
(−2.18
−1.95
to −1.15)
(−1.61
−1.39
to −1.17)
(−1.6
−1.37
to −1.85)
(−2.26
−2.06
to −2.23)
(−2.65
−2.47
to −1.15)
(−1.61
−1.36
4.46)
(−7.49–
−0.76
4.55)
(−6.47–
−0.85
—
—
—
0.69)
(−5.37–
−2.39
0.07)
(−6.06–
−2.8
—
—
—
4.06)
−3.07
to −8.91)
—
to −1.07)
−2.61
to −0.26)
−3.5
to −0.26)
—
to −1.64)
to −13.65) −11.32
(−16.5 150 km
3.94) −0.41
to −9.22) −15.75
to −1.05) −1.26
(−5.05–
−0.51
(−21.03
(−1.5
(−4.57–
+ year
Population
to −9.04) −15.26
—
(−21.16
−4.18
0.35)
(−7.22–
to −1.74) −1.27
(−20.56
−14.57
(−1.49
to −9.42) 100 km
to −0.48) −3.72
(−2.14
−1.91
(−7.96
—
—
(−7.2
−3.93
(−7.96
—
—
—
(−6.13
−4.18
(−7.22–0.35)
−3.72
—
Δb Slope difference 2c
(−23.65
−3.77
to −14.35) −19.43
(−6.72
(−23.05
+ population/year
Population
−4.58
to −0.48)
−18.42
to −13.55)
−3.93 (−7.2
—
(−22.6
−18.74
slope
slopea
slope
slope
slope
slope
slope
1b
Δb Slope difference
Residual
withinpopulation
year
year
Year
subpopulation
population
(−13.48
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
definition
Population
Pooled mean Subpopulation/
Population/
Between-
Between-
+ year
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
Population
effects
variable
January,
Random
Cont.
Temperature
Table S1.
525,830
525,828
551,083
542,137
525,834
517,338
517,388
539,065
534,077
517,473
523,586
523,586
543,265
DIC
0.44
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.28
0.41
0.38
0.41
0.38
0.27
0.39
0.41
0.44
R2
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
4 of 6
Population
February,
+ year
to −1.8)
to −0.21)
to −1.66)
to −6.93)
(−6.18 to −0.5)
(−16.88 to −7.24)
+ year
+ population/year
mean
to −0.91)
(−2.68
to −1.21)
(−4.08
to −1.94)
(−2.35
−2.13
to −5.06)
(−14.72
−9.9
to −5.73) −2.37
to −2.28) —
to −1.27) −1.86
to −1.46) −3.08
to −0.37) —
to −8.86) −12.4
+ population/year
Population
February,
150 km
(−12.92 (−2.71 (−4.24 (−2.89 (−6.17
(−15.5
+ year
−9.6
mean
−2.5
to −4.17) −2.74
to −1.21) —
to −1.43) −2.16
to −1.82) −3.17
to −0.54) —
to −7.51)
+ population/year
Population
February,
−11.99
(−9.41 (−1.69 (−4.32 (−3.09 (−6.26
−6.93
(−11.85
−1.41
—
—
—
3.27) −2.64
to −6.69) —
to −1.68) −2.53
to −0.56) −2.97
to −0.56)
—
to −1.55)
to −9.55) −9.89
+ year 100 km
2.68) 0.09 (−3.54–
−14.97 (−22.97
−1.88
(−4.16–
−0.44
(−2.09
−2.95
(−20.39
(−5.89
—
(−2.1
(−5.89
—
(−5.68
(−5.78
−2.9
to −0.21)
(−5.68
−13.1
—
—
—
0.48)
(−4.29–
−1.84
0.5)
(−5.29–
−2.46
—
538,367
532,480
514,728
527,661
527,662
547,511
542,822
527,669
514,222
514,223
545,394
534,242
514,375
—
—
DIC
Δb Slope difference 2c
(−25.13
−3.38
to −10.52) −17.69
(−5.89
(−22.69
−1.85
to −4.26) −3.18
to −2.06) —
to −0.52) —
to −0.52) −3.18
to −8.08) −16.24
(−16.9 (−2.44
mean
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
to −6.19) −12.1 (−5.53
−2.24
(−5.53
−3.19
(−16.3
−11.01
(−20.01
—
to −2.43)
—
to −0.57)
−3.19
to −0.57) —
to −10.26) −13.82
(−2.82
−2.68 (−5.53
−3.45
(−5.53
—
(−18.92
—
to −3.67)
−3.45
to −1.69)
—
to −0.51)
−14.36
to −0.51)
−7.11
to −5.73)
to −1.43)
−1.9
(−13.11
−9.49
to −6)
(−12.05
(−1.94
−1.67
to −1.47)
(−1.91
−8.56
to −3.58)
(−11.58
to −7.69)
−3.64
to −0.65)
(−4.09
−2.54
to −0.29)
(−3.87
−1.67
to −2.57)
(−2.96
to −3.69) −7.65
(−10.73
—
(−3.11–0.14)
−1.7
(−2.71–1.54)
−2.06
0.22)
(−4.84–
to −2.67) −2.79
(−10.56
(−2.1
—
to −1.37)
(−3.84
−2.69
to −1.72)
(−3.87
to −0.19) −2.6
(−3.08
(−5.88
−4.06
−0.63
—
(−5.16
−6.91
(−5.88
−3.64
(−8.31–1.84)
−3.57
(−7.7–2.21)
−2.67
to −0.93)
(−3.33
−2.34
to −1.54)
(−3.62
−2.89
to −3.08)
−2.71
to −1.45)
—
to −0.22)
−2.69
to −1.58)
−6.65 (−8.99
−1.7 (−1.93
−2.84
slope
slopea
1b
Δb Slope difference
Residual
withinpopulation
(−5.52
—
slope
year
Pooled mean
(−3.33
−2.49
slope
year
Subpopulation/
(−12.65
—
to −2.86)
to −8.58)
−10.56
(−5.74
(−15.23
−4.3
to −2.47)
to −8.28)
−11.64
(−6.54
(−13.51
−2.76
(−7.39–1.69)
−2.65
(−8.18–1.87)
−2.74
(−8.05–2.3)
−3.14
slope
Year
Population/
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
100 km
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
−4.51
—
—
—
slope
subpopulation
Between-
February,
mean
February,
+ subpopulation
+ year
mean
mean
Population
Population + year
Population + year
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
−10.4
to −7.19) 100 km
+ population/year
Population
(−13.77
+ year
−10.31
to −7.98) 150 km
+ population/year
Population
(−12.37
−10.16
+ year
100 km
to −7.82)
Population
+ population/year
−9.49
slope
population
(−10.77
50 km
definition
Population
Between-
+ year
February,
mean
February,
mean
February,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
January,
minimum
Population
effects
variable
January,
Random
Cont.
Temperature
Table S1.
0.37
0.34
0.23
0.36
0.31
0.3
0.27
0.19
0.45
0.35
0.38
0.36
0.29
R2
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
5 of 6
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
maximum
February,
mean
February,
mean
−3.19
to −0.35)
to −0.75)
−2.7
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
+ 50 km
(−6.67 to −1.19)
(−17.72 to −8.36)
to −0.19)
(−5.19
−2.84
to −0.01)
−13.03
to −6.82) 100 km
+ population/year
Population
(−5.39
(−18.66
−2.59
+ year
—
to −0.18)
−13.11
to −9.39) 150 km
+ population/year
Population
(−5.53
(−17.77
+ year
to −1.89)
(−3.15
−2.42
to −1.16)
(−2.74
−2.13
to −1.61)
(−2.91
−1.12 (−4.26–1.53)
—
to −0.81)
(−3.44
−2.43
to −0.94)
(−3.74
−2.44
to −1.16)
(−3.95
−2.51
to −0.81)
(−1.23
−1.03
to −1.41)
(−1.78
−1.61
to −1.77)
(−2.16
−1.92
to −6.27)
(−15.85
−10.23
to −3.8)
(−16.49
−10.6
to −6.78)
(−15.49
−11
to −4.44) —
to −0.82) −2.17
to −1.34)
−2.84
to −2.1)
—
to −0.01)
−13.33
to −7.36) 100 km
+ population/year
Population
(−9.91 (−1.24 (−3.89
−3.99
to −12.38) −7.06
(−3.25
−1.05
(−30.1
−19.6
to −12.39)
(−29.58
−18.95
to −10.83)
(−27.74
−18.67
to −11.61)
(−23.43
−17.33
(−5.1
−2.76
to −1.32) —
to −0.59)
−2.86
to −0.59)
—
to −0.39)
−10.15
to −14.77)
−1.48
to −1.32)
(−1.69
−1.51
to −1.64)
(−2
(−1.7
−2.58
to −0.58)
(−4.9
−2.79
to −0.35)
(−4.81
to −2.01) −1.81
(−5.14
—
to −0.41) −2.86
(−2.37
−2.19
(−5.14
—
—
—
(−4.96
−2.75
(−5.14
−2.58
to −0.58)
(−4.9
—
—
—
(−31.65
−2.29
to −14.7) −22.4
(−5.78
(−30.98
−2.79
to −13.36) −21.7
(−4.81
(−29.67
−2.86
to −0.41) —
to −15.18) −21.72
(−4.96
(−25.82
—
to −5.69)
−2.75
to −1.34)
—
to −0.81)
−19.5
to −0.81)
−9.44
to −6.11)
(−13.93
−10.56
to −8.84)
−1.49
to −1.2)
(−1.68
−1.44
(−13.17
−2.73
to −0.95)
(−3.68
−2.27
(−1.69
—
(−4.01–1.53)
−0.73
1.5)
(−4.84–
−1.79
—
—
—
3.35)
(−3.15–
−0.24
2.72)
(−3.6–
−0.61
—
—
—
0.94)
(−4.98–
−1.86
0.94)
to −6.11)
to −1.2)
to −0.95)
(−5.22
—
to −1.73)
(−3.17
−2.49
(−4.98–
−1.86
(−13.93
−10.56
(−1.68
−1.44
Δb Slope difference 2c
(−3.68
−2.27
slope
slopea
1b
Δb Slope difference
Residual
withinpopulation
Pooled mean
(−5.22
−2.73
to −0.18)
(−6.43
−3.13
(−4.01–1.53)
−0.73
slope
year
Subpopulation/
(−15.03
—
to −1.92)
to −8.23)
−11.98
(−6.83
(−15.68
−4.77
to −1.73)
to −0.18)
to −1.92)
to −8.23)
−12.41
(−3.17
−2.49
slope
year
(−6.43
−3.13
slope
Year
(−6.83
−4.77
slope
subpopulation
Population/
(−15.68
−12.41
slope
population
Between-
(−12.47
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
100 km
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
100 km
definition
Population
Between-
+ year
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
Population + year
Population + year
Population + year
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
effects
variable
February,
Random
Temperature
Table S1. Cont.
529,630
548,751
545,052
529,727
541,310
541,312
557,555
554,624
541,318
514,630
514,630
DIC
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.2
0.39
0.36
0.31
0.33
0.2
0.35
0.35
R2
Phillimore et al. www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/0913792107
6 of 6
−3.96
−3.09
(−6.08–0.13)
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
(−5.62 to −2.16)
(−16.34 to −7.72)
−4.01
to −0.1)
(−6.06
−3.44
to −0.32)
(−2.08
−1.25
to −0.82)
to −0.15)
to −2.42)
to −7.31)
−10.64
(−2.27
(−6.6
(−6.32
(−13.66
−1.4
to−0.12)
−3.01
to −0.26)
−10.71
to −7.33) 100 km
+ population/year
Population
(−1.83
(−6.06
(−14.8
−1.07
to −0.7)
(−2.08
−1.3
to −0.86)
(−2.13
−1.51
+ year
−3.39
to−0.2) —
to −7.2) −10.19
+ population/year 150 km
(−6.16
(−13.05
+ year
−3.28
to −0.07)
−10.24
—
—
to −1.47)
to −6.58) −8.78
(−4.9
(−19.04
−0.66
to −0.3)
(−3.38
−1.64
(−2.88–1.42)
—
—
—
to −1.95)
to −0.9)
(−3.12
to −1.34)
(−1.79
−1.58
to −5.18)
(−14.1
−8.83
0.01)
(−3.94–
−1.92
to −0.03) to −5.29) to −1.32) to −0.54)
−2.15
(−4.75 (−12.19
−2.39
—
—
—
3.4)
(−3.47–
−0.65
(−1.79
−8.71
to −4.81)
(−12.75
−9.07
to −4.48)
(−10.94
−8.31
to −3.68)
(−8.29
−5.87
to −2.52)
(−16.9
−10.28
(−3.14
−1.56
to −0.48) −1.83
(−2.33
−2.16
to −2.3)
(−2.72
−2.49
to −1.34)
(−1.82
−1.53
to −1.56)
(−1.97
(−3.45
−2.2
to −0.76)
(−3.82
−2.28
to −0.78)
(−4.17
−2.28
0.13)
(−6.08–
−1.73
3.24)
−3.04
to −3.34)
—
to −1.55)
—
to −0.06)
−3.04
to −0.06)
−3.06
to −1.64)
−0.32
—
—
to −6.76) −12.29
to −6.6)
Population
to −0.65) −9.13
to −1.95) −1.74
(−12.42
−6.3
to −1.66)
(−11.69
(−2.31
−2.12
to −2.29)
(−2.67
to −1.18) −6.92
(−3.81–
−3.13
(−6.19–0.1)
−3.26
(−5.9–0.02)
to −1.56) −2.47
—
(−15.1
+ population/year
Population
0.18) −3.06
(−9.09
−4.56
(−1.96
—
—
—
(−1.95
−1.75
(−5.77
—
—
—
(−6.17–
−3.07
(−5.77
−3.13
(−6.19–0.1)
−3.26
(−5.9–0.02)
−3.06
—
2.69)
to −3.93)
to −0.81)
to −1.68)
to −1.63)
to −1.57)
—
(−3.25–
−0.65
(−16.28
−9.58
(−1.22
−1.02
(−3.98
−2.82
(−5.72
−3.05
(−3.07
−2.29
(−5.35
−3.69
—
—
(−6.17–0.18)
−3.07
(−5.55–0.02)
(−6.75
100 km
−2.69
Δb Slope difference 2c
(−17.1
−11.67
to −4.56)
(−14.58
−9.56
to −6.46)
(−13.79
−10.29
to −5.46)
(−9.97
—
to −0.82)
to −7.26)
−7.71
(−6.13
−3.26
(−19.15
−12.86
(−10.08
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
+ 50 km
100 km
150 km
100 km
50 km
+ 50 km
150 km
slope
slopea
slope
slope
slope
slope
slope
1b
Δb Slope difference
Residual
withinpopulation
year
year
Year
subpopulation
population
+ year
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
+ subpopulation
Population
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
+ year
Population
+ subpopulation/year
+ population/year
+ year
+ subpopulation
definition
Population
Pooled mean Subpopulation/
Population/
Between-
Between-
513,742
513,760
543,622
533,617
513,900
529,290
529,290
553,171
545,336
529,298
529,587
DIC
0.37
0.33
0.38
0.34
0.23
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.16
0.31
R2
Models were run for 13,000 iterations with a burn-in of 3,000 iterations and sampling every 10 iterations, except for the January mean temperature model with the lowest DIC. This model differed in that 103,000 iterations were used. Highest posterior densities (95%) are reported in parentheses. Dashes indicate that the relevant random effect was not included in the model; therefore, variance components required for calculating a slope were not estimated. a Pooled mean of the year, population/year, and subpopulation/year slopes. b Slope difference 1: between-population slope minus pooled mean within-population slope. c Slope difference 2: between-subpopulation slope minus pooled mean within-population slope.
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
minimum
February,
maximum
Population
effects
variable
February,
Random
Temperature
Table S1. Cont.
