Syllabus

Department of Industrial and Information Management National Cheng Kung University “System Dynamics” Tentative Syllabus, Spring 2012 Professor: Office, Phone & E-mail: Office Hours: Wei-Tsong Wang Room 61319 Mon. 2 - 5 pm; (06)2757575 #53122 or by appointment [email protected]

I.

Time and Location: Wed. 13:10 – 16:00 Room 61204

Origin and Definition of System Dynamics: The system dynamics approach originated from the applications of engineering control system as well as the theory of information feedback systems. One of the important concepts in the system dynamic approach is complex social system. In 1956, Jay Forrester, Germeshausen Professor Emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and founder of system dynamics, redesigned an originally mathematics-driven, engineering control system approach into an analysis methodology for the simulation of feedback dynamics of social contexts. It is described that the system dynamics approach, which is with the origins in servomechanisms, engineering, and management, as a computer-aided approach to policy development and analysis. From this perspective, it is elaborated that the system dynamics approach is used to understand the dynamics of complex social system based on the perspective of information feedback and circular causality. According to Sterman (2000), the application of System Dynamics methodology on studying complex social systems is defined as follows: “System dynamics is a method to enhance learning in complex systems. Just as an airline uses flight simulators to help pilots learn, system dynamics is, partly, a method for developing management flight simulators, often computer simulation models, to help us learn about the dynamic complexity, understand the sources of policy resistance, and design more effective policies.” (p. 4)

II. Course Objectives: This course aims to guide individuals to acquire knowledge and skills necessary to conceptualize dynamic policy problems, develop appropriate simulation models, and use models for decision making and policy analysis. The core of this course is to understand the significance and usefulness of information feedback and circular causality in comprehending the behavior of social systems. The course is appropriate and beneficial for both people who wish to equip themselves with capabilities of understanding studies that employ computer simulation approach, and for people who wish themselves to become skilled simulation modelers. III. Textbook and Readings: Textbook Sterman, John, D., 2000, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 0-07-231135-5 (高立圖書公司代理) 1

Readings Cooke, D. L. (2003). A system dynamics analysis of the Westray mine disaster. System Dynamics Review, 19(2), 139-166. Forrester, J. W. & Senge, P. M. (1980). Test for Building Confidence in System Dynamics Models. TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, 14, 209-228. Kim, D. H. (1992). System Archetypes. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications. Meadows, D. H. (1982). Whole earth models and systems. The CoEvolution Quarterly, summer issue. Morecroft, J. D. W. (1984). Strategy Support Models. Strategic Management Journal, 5(3), 215-229. Richmond, B. (1993). System thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond. System Dynamics Review, 9(2), 113-133. Handouts All the handouts, readings, and other teaching materials of this course can be found and downloaded at the following website: http://myweb.ncku.edu.tw/~wtwang/course/courses.htm IV. Grading Policy:  Individual assignments: 55 %. No late turned-in assignment will be accepted.  Individual conceptualization assignments and presentations: 35 %. No late turned-in

assignment will be accepted.  Class attendance/participation: 10 %.  All assignments must be printed on recycled papers. Luxury covering or binding is

unnecessary.  There are no exams in the course. V.

Requirements: Individual Assignments There is an individual assignment every one to two weeks and is due for the upcoming class. Details of individual assignments will be announced by the instructor later in the class. Individual Conceptualization Assignments and Presentations The purpose of the individual conceptualization assignments is to obtain experience in conceptualizing social systems of your interests and identifying problems in the systems, and eventually lead to a system dynamics research proposal/project for policy/decision-making analysis. There are two related conceptualization assignments and corresponding presentations in which you have opportunities to get feedbacks from 2

your fellow students and the instructor on your assignments. Details of individual conceptualization assignments will be announced by the instructor later in the class. VI. Tentative Class Schedule: Date Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15

Topic Introduction to system dynamics Systems thinking, feedback structure, and policy simulation Tools of system dynamics modeling: diagrams, equations, and software. Model construction and formulation in Vensim I (kaibab model) Model construction and formulation in Vensim II (kaibab model; urban model) Model construction and formulation in Vensim III (urban model) Generic structures: stocks & flows (urban model) Dynamics of stocks & flows Technical tools (urban model; epidemic model) Delays and Oscillations (market growth model) Oscillations (commodities model) Conceptualization (fish banks model) Generic processes (co-flow & aging chain) and system archetypes Project Presentation I System archetypes

Week 16 Communicating structure: cognitive maps and policy structures Week 17 Model Evaluation and Validation

Week 18 Project Presentations II

Readings Syllabus Richmond, 1993

Assignment Due None None

Sterman Ch. 1, 5.1-5.4 Sterman Ch. 2, 3

Assignment 1

Sterman Ch. 3, 4.1.1, 4.1.2

Assignment 2

Sterman Ch. 4

Assignment 3

Sterman Ch. 6

Assignment 4

None

Sterman Ch. 7, 9.2 Assignment 5 Sterman Ch. 8 Assignment 6 Sterman Ch. 4.1.3, None 4.3.3, 11.1–11.5 Sterman Ch. 20 None Sterman Ch.3

Read the Assignment 7 Sterman Ch.11, 12, None 13.1-13.2.7 Sterman Ch. 3 None Kim, Meadows Assignment 8 Proposal 1 Morecroft, 1984 None Cooke, 2003; None Forrester & Senge, 1980; Sterman Ch. 21 Sterman Ch. 13, Assignment 9 14.1-14.2 Proposal 2

3