Technology roadmapping architecture based on ...

TFS-18409; No of Pages 12 Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technology roadmapping architecture based on technological learning: Case study of social banking in Iran Sepehr Ghazinoory a, Nasrin Dastranj a,⁎, Fatemeh Saghafi b, Arun Kulshreshtha c, Alireza Hasanzadeh a a b c

Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran University of Tehran, Iran NAM S&T Centre, India

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 1 July 2015 Received in revised form 17 December 2015 Accepted 29 December 2015 Available online xxxx Keywords: Technology roadmapping Technological learning Technological capabilities Catch up strategy Social banking Absorptive capacity

a b s t r a c t Technology roadmapping is a planning tool that plays a key role in technology, innovation and R&D decisions in range of business, industry and national levels and shows the path for development of required skills. As technology development engine in late industrialized countries is technological learning rather than innovation, we observe that the considerations and requirements of technology development in developing countries have been neglected in current published literature on technology roadmaps. In this paper, by introducing technological learning as an appropriate analysis level for technology roadmapping in developing countries, the main components of technological learning including technological capabilities (TCs) and catch up strategy have been identified and efforts have been made to integrate these components in the ordinary technology roadmap architectures and thereby introduce an appropriate architecture for industries in developing countries. Finally to validate the proposed architecture, technology roadmapping is applied for social banking in Iran based on the architecture. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Technology roadmapping is a method to manage, plan and develop technology at enterprise, industry or national levels and is used whenever the scale of systems is large, there is a high degree of complexity with strategic decisions involved with future uncertainties, and association of several stakeholders in the formulation, implementation, support and use of technology (Phaal et al., 2004; Phaal et al., 2010). This approach has been developed with vastly differing levels of specificity and for vastly different audiences. The principal functions of technology roadmaps have been for representation, communication, planning, and coordination and, to a degree, for technology forecasting and selection (Rinn, 2004). It was first used in Motorola in 1997 and thereafter it was adopted by several industries and sectors with different purposes. Various approaches for technology roadmapping have so far been established that can be classified in terms of goals, architectures and applications (Lee and Park, 2005) (Phaal et al., 2006). The wide range of approaches and architectures of technology roadmapping is a reason for high flexibility of this tool that can be customized for different applications, strategic and innovation contexts (Phaal and Muller, 2009).

⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S. Ghazinoory), [email protected] (N. Dastranj), fsaghafi@ut.ac.ir (F. Saghafi), [email protected] (A. Kulshreshtha), [email protected] (A. Hasanzadeh).

Technology roadmapping usually has two key components: roadmapping process which shows phases and stages of development and roadmapping result which indicates the graphical multilayer presentation that reflects the rate of changes and important time horizons by having specified time frame (Phaal et al., 2004). According to Carvalho et al. (2013) published technology roadmaps may be classified in three levels of analysis including business and strategy, innovation and new product development (NPD) with no distinction between the processes of technology development in industrialized and industrializing economies. It is observed that innovation, particularly through research and development, plays a key role in the analyses. But according to Viotti (2002) technology development engine in late industrialized countries is technological learning rather than innovation, so that the activities, institutions and their relationships are based on learning which is focused on gradual absorption and dissemination of technologies and then incremental innovations. On the other hand, the pattern of technology development in developing countries is different from developed ones, because technology development in developing countries does not start with innovation, but usually begins with absorption and improvement in innovations developed in industrialized countries (Lee and Park, 2005). To cover this gap, this paper is an endeavor to investigate components of technological learning as an appropriate analysis level for industries in developing countries and merge the identified components in current technology roadmap architectures. So the research questions are as follow: 1) what is the appropriate analysis level for technology roadmapping in developing

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.018 0040-1625/© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Ghazinoory, S., et al., Technology roadmapping architecture based on technological learning: Case study of social banking in Iran, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.018

2

S. Ghazinoory et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Fig. 1. Architecture of technology roadmap for technology-intensive emerging industries (Phaal et al., 2011).

countries? 2) What are the components of the identified analysis level and how to merge them in current roadmap architectures? 3) How to apply the proposed roadmap architecture for social banking in Iran? Therefore, In Section 2, ordinary technology roadmapping architectures are discussed and key layers are described. In Section 3, the components of technological learning have been outlined. Section 4 customizes the process and structure of roadmapping framework based on results achieved in aforementioned sections. Finally, in Section 5, technology roadmapping has been developed for social banking in Iran as a case study. 2. Technology roadmap architecture Each technology roadmap architecture usually consists of three main layers (Phaal et al., 2010): 1) Upper layer is related to trends and drivers that determine overall goals or objectives of technology roadmapping and market demand, 2) Middle layer is focused on products and services that should be developed to respond to Trends and drivers in upper layer, 3) Lower layer is related to internal and external resources that need to be provided for creating products, services and systems. For drawing technology roadmaps, after the preliminary activities for preparing the roadmap team and identifying scope and boundaries, the following steps should usually be accomplished (Phaal and Muller, 2009)(Lee et al., 2007): 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Define statements of purpose. Define the industry and needs of customers now and in the future. Identify products and technologies. Identify features of key technologies and products. Identify time horizons for technology development. Identify technology drivers and targets. Identify technology alternatives and their development timelines.

8. Define skills and knowledge requirements for developing and implementing technologies. According to the above steps, Phaal (Phaal et al., 2011) and Rouley (Rouley et al., 2013) have customized the layers and time frame (vertical and horizontal axis) for technology development in emerging industries. So that the layers are classified to three categories of value context, value capture and value creation and time frame is mapped to industry life cycle in emerging industries (Fig. 1). Value context layer includes opportunities in environment for value capture and creation. This layer comprises market drivers and trends, government policies, regulations and standards, and industrial dynamics. Second layer, value capture, includes mechanisms and processes used by organizations to deliver new products and services, and comprises business models and strategies, applications, products and services, support services, sales and marketing, supply networks, distribution and operation. Third layer, value creation, illustrates the competencies and capabilities used by organizations to generate new products and services and include resources (skill, infrastructure and finance), relationships, research and development, design and management. This layer shows how organizations use R&D, resources and relationships to create value. The cycle shown in Fig. 1 indicates industry life cycle for emerging industries that is a path from science to technology, technology to application and application to market (Phaal et al., 2011). The first step of cycle (S–T) is support of scientific activities in a way that leads to the development of market-based technologies and then improvements in performance and reliability of them until can be delivered to market. The second step (T–A) is promotion of technology applications in such a way that leads to sustainable commercial potentials for the product and make it profitable. The next step (A–M) is promotion of price and performance that leads to sustainable business potentials in the product. The growth step deals with marketing, commercialization and



business development that leads to sustainable industrial growth. The mature step deals with refinement and optimization of business models and production processes and finally, because of competitive disruption, the industry either declines or renewed through development of new science-based technologies and so repeat the mentioned steps. In this architecture, innovation through R&D plays a key role in roadmapping success and scientific advances are the fundamental requisite for a successful transition to the next steps. This issue makes the architecture suitable for emerging industries in developed countries. As mentioned before, Technical change in developing countries often begins with absorption and promotion of innovations that have been established in industrialized countries and so technology development engine in late industrialized countries is technological learning rather than innovation. Therefore, the path for acquisition and development of technologies and technological capabilities in developed and developing countries will be different. In developing countries, development of capabilities/starts with production and then leads to creation of capabilities and innovation. In these economies, technology development process usually does not begin with innovation but starts with investments and production. In the early stages of production, the knowhow knowledge of using transferred technology will be the main concern (Lee and Park, 2005). This knowledge will be created incrementally based on technological learning process (Viotti, 2002). (Phaal et al., 2011). Therefore, technological learning path in developing countries follow reverse product life cycle (reverse-PLC) (Hobday, 1997; Kim, 1999) that leads to absorption and assimilation of imported technology and then creation of new technologies (Fig. 2). Section 3 describes technological learning components as an appropriate analysis level in technology roadmapping for developing countries. 3. Technological learning: neglected analysis level in technology roadmapping Technological learning is defined as a way to develop endogenous technological capabilities and demonstrate the ability of an organization

3

to effective use the technology, absorb and assimilate outer technologies and create new ones over time in response to environmental changes (Lee, 2004; Kim, 1999). Obtaining the required skills and competencies for technology development and their integration require efforts to reduce the errors associated with technology initiatives in the areas of selection, transmission, absorption, utilization, development and localization of technologies. Therefore the concept of technological learning gets tied to technological capabilities. Technological learning is the process of technological capabilities accumulation. Considering the importance of technological learning for developing countries, integration of technological learning components is vital to make the roadmap suitable for industries in developing countries. Technological learning process depends on many factors that affect learning issue (Chen and Qu, 2003) (Ghazinoory et al., 2007; Hobday, 1997; Kim and Dahlman, 1992; Kim, 1999; Lee, 2004; Teece and Pisano, 1994). These factors can be classified into two categories of ‘internal’ and ‘external’. Understanding these factors will help us to favorably impress the speed and power of technological learning in firms and industries. Organizational processes, technology path and knowledge base can be categorized as internal factors, and economic and technical factors can be categorized as external factors. The factors are described in the following and are indicated in Fig. 3. 3.1. Internal factors 3.1.1. Organizational process This refers to managerial and organizational processes and technological efforts to solve problems related to planning and implementation of learning in organizations and grow technological capabilities. Usually the growth of technological capabilities in organizations and industries occurs through choosing the right technology strategy, learning method and organizational structure. 3.1.2. Technology path This refers to technological progress path along with technological learning, including horizontal and vertical path. Horizontal path shows

Fig. 2. Steps of technology development in developed and developing countries (Hobday et al., 2004).


4


Fig. 3. Internal and external technological learning factors and its components.

the direction that technology path should move for accumulation and development of technological capabilities and vertical path shows technology development steps which usually include absorption, assimilation and innovation step. 3.1.3. Knowledge base This refers to the existing level of technological capabilities in the organizations that means knowledge, equipment, software and skills accumulating over time and providing new knowledge base in an enterprise. 3.2. External factors 3.2.1. Technical factors These comprise complexity and novelty of technology. Technology complexity refers to knowledge, components, equipment and subsystems in specified technology. Technology novelty refers to the condition of technology in the world, which usually indicates the technology trend in the life cycle. 3.2.2. Economic factors The survival of technological learning programs and projects rely on strength and stability of domestic and global economic factors. Domestic economic factors include government policies and market conditions and global economic factors include international competition in technology trade and international price of related technologies. According to the definitions of absorptive capacity and catch up strategy, it can be concluded that internal factors determine the level of technological capabilities or absorptive capacity of the firm, and

external factors along with absorptive capacity determine catch up strategy. Absorptive capacity consists of two key factors: 1) firm knowledge base that refers to knowledge, equipment, and skills that accumulates over time and provide new knowledge, 2) intensity of efforts that is the efforts of the firm to reduce its technological gap with competitors and other companies in the world. Absorptive capacity and technological capability can be used interchangeably (Kim, 1997). Catch up strategy is the process that the countries, which are lagging behind on technology frontiers, take and try to narrow the technological gap (Mazzoleni and Nelson, 2007). It indicates what to learn and how to develop a product or technology in order to have greatest benefits. For a company, industry or a country in the process of catch up, an appropriate level of technological capabilities or absorptive capacity is necessary for constant improvement (Fagerberg and Srholec, 2008). Finding the best catch up strategy needs determination and identification of technological learning external factors vis-á-vis the level of technological capabilities. The more these factors are satisfied, the more are the chances for technology development. 3.3. Catch up strategies Evidence shows that many industries in developing countries find the exploitation of existing potentials very difficult to catch up, because conditions for catch up have become hard over time, and countries which want to catch up, need to gain enough technological capabilities (Fagerberg and godinho, 2004). In fact, the process of catch up includes innovation in an effective way. The type of this innovation is different from innovation initiatives that focus on technological advances in



developed economies and include institutional and organizational innovation (Radosevic, 1999). Huang and Bi (2012) attempted to introduce a three-stage model for technology catch up. According to their model, countries are categorized as three groups of low, medium and high according to their technological capabilities. Each of these attracts and localizes the technologies according to their TC level. For instance, countries with low technological capabilities begin catch up with focus on mature technologies in developed economies. Then by increasing their technological capabilities, they will be able to change and customize acquired technologies with their needs. According to Lee and Lim (Lee and Lim, 2001), catch up strategies based on the level of technological capabilities from low to high, respectively, are Path-Following, Phase-Skipping and Path-Creating. In path following strategy, companies try to simulate the process that the frontier has gone at the first time; but the duration of acquisition of technical knowledge will be much shorter than the first time. In the first step of this model, technology is imported and after becoming familiar with the mechanism of its implementation, technology imitation takes place. Imitated technology expands by doing some R&D activities based on market demand and from this point on; incremental innovations can be seen in different parts of the technology. Eventually, the level of technological capabilities rises to its peak at S point where the gradual innovation happens (Fig. 4). Phase skipping strategy, follows back to front process in the acquisition and localization of technology like the first model. However, in this model, due to relatively high technological capabilities of technology receiver, some localization steps happen faster. Similar to the previous model, the import of technology, imitation and understanding implementation mechanism constitutes the first step of technology development. High capability for research and development causes the incremental innovations begin shortly after technology imitation and then breakthrough innovation happens by reaching more technological capabilities at S point. Then the level of technology slightly decreases so that technology takes its path to maturity by incremental innovations (Fig. 5). Localization process in path creating strategy, differ slightly with two former models because the selected technologies for localization are in early state of their life cycle. In the first step, after identification and imitation of early stages of technology development, the technology potential applications in other areas are identified. Then, the identified applications lead to disruptive innovations in various areas (S point). Next, the process of development continues in the form of incremental innovation that will eventually lead to breakthrough innovation (Fig. 6). If level of technological capabilities is taken as a key factor in determining the catch up strategy, steps of technology development in developing countries can be mapped to catch up strategies as Fig. 7. Thus, when the technological capabilities are at its lowest level, path following strategy is recommended. When the level of technological capabilities rises relatively, the phase skipping strategy will be possible. With

Fig. 4. Catch up steps for path-following strategy.

5

Fig. 5. Catch up steps for phase-skipping strategy.

raising the level of capabilities to the extent that the technology can be accessed in the early life cycle, path creating strategy will be available. 4. Technology roadmapping based on technological learning—learning based roadmap As mentioned before, technological learning components including technological capabilities and appropriate catch up strategy is necessary for development of technology in companies and industries of developing countries. In the following, identified technological learning components is merged in ordinary technology roadmap architecture (before shown in Fig.1) to make it customized to the needs of industries in developing countries. The resulting roadmap is called learning based technology roadmap. 4.1. Learning based technology roadmap Given the importance of catch up strategy and its influencing factors, and also need to necessary solutions for developing skills and capabilities in learning based roadmaps, process of learning based roadmapping has been shown in three steps (Fig. 8). In learning based roadmaps, the focus is on development of technological capabilities. In developing countries, due to lack of adequate technological capabilities in various industries, the first layer should be focused on challenges in addition to opportunities in the environment and finds solutions to solve them. Lack of adequate skills and knowledge, lack of appropriate government policies, monopoly and lack of sufficient competitive incentives, lack of cooperation and communication in production and distribution networks, lack of sufficient demand in the domestic market, lack of attention to export and lack of sustainable strategies can be cited as challenges in developing countries (Kheirkhah et al., 2009; Soofi and Ghazinoory, 2013). The second layer focuses on the acquisition of technological capabilities. As previously mentioned, usually the path of acquisition and development of technologies and technological capabilities are different in developed and developing countries and technology catch up strategy determine the path of acquisition of technology.

Fig. 6. Catch up steps for path-creating strategy.


6


Fig. 7. Catch up strategies according to technological capabilities level.

Finally, the third layer focuses on the creation of technological capabilities. In developing countries, attention to social and non-physical technologies including organizational structures, laws, government policies, management practices, norms, institutional and organizational changes are necessary. On the other hand, capabilities will gradually

improve with proper planning. Solutions and strategies for building the absorption capacity and ability to utilize the resources to raise the level of technological capabilities are focused in this layer. Fig. 9 shows the layers of learning based roadmap in comparison with the innovation based roadmap.

Fig. 8. Process of learning-based roadmap development.



7

Fig. 9. layers of learning based roadmap in comparison with innovation based roadmap.

5. Case study: social banking technology roadmap 5.1. What is social banking? According to Gartner, “Social banking is the combination of social trends, such as green practices, social entrepreneurship, and peer-topeer lending and financial planning via social networks, with banking products and services”. It combines the social trends in networking communities of interest with financial products, services, capital and market access and provides full banking services to/with various banking community stakeholders in interactive social networks. It can be rooted up in two general trends including consumers' social behaviors and financial trends. It can provide an integrated and comprehensive banking services on a single social platform, raises the bank name as market leader, provides long-term plan for bank sustainable development and leads to involvement of various stakeholders of the bank (Cognizant, 2014). Unlike the traditional approach, a social bank recognizes that achieving social goals requires extensive adjustment with how business is done by the organization. Transitioning to social business model means making capabilities required to process insights from social channels, interact and engage with customers, respond to their needs and identify and act on social opportunities (Deloitte, 2014). To start activities on social media, banks have to understand to what extent current and potential customers and competitors use social media and which social technologies are more suitable. Even they should evaluate own capabilities and current activities in the field of social media. Also they should examine critical risks. In particular, they should identify specific concerns about social media and create processes to manage the potential adverse consequences. Then they should map their business goals with specific areas that social media can create value. By addressing these issues, they can receive senior management support of all social media activities. The Financial Brands Company released the list of the top 100 banks and financial institutions from developed and developing countries in use of social media in 2014 (The Financial Brands, 2014). The rankings help financial industries to identify and analyze the largest and best practices in social media. According to its report, services such as employment, marketing, sales, customer surveys, customer involvement (in product or service development), news, education and financial advice, information and customer support services are offered more by these banks. At least 80% of these banks offer marketing service through

Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. This shows the potential of social media as a powerful advertising network that in addition to access to mass audiences provides targeted advertising to their customers (Capgemini, 2014). Banks' use of social networks includes the following purposes: 1) marketing purposes, 2) banking operations, 3) transparent relationships and communication with customers, 4) use of tools and technologies in the development of social banking industry and 5) use of non-banking social financial platforms (Cognizant, 2014) (IDRBT, 2013). Therefore, social banking will bring many benefits for banks that some of them are mentioned below (Accenture, 2011) (Hubert et al., 2014): • improve banking services with better understanding of the customers behavior and relations • customize services to satisfy the needs of customers • predict business trends, manage risk and improve performance • advertise new banking services • create new financial platforms (such as crowd funding) to bring financial and non-financial benefits to the bank • receive customers point and create incentives models to loyal customers

In order to achieve the above mentioned advantages, banks should consider key strategic steps. In this regard, banks should have a specific plan for developing their activities and capabilities on social networks to exploit the most of opportunities and benefits and minimize the risks (My private banking 2012). Knowledge of social banking is not something weird and advanced. In fact the idea of social banking is originally back to developing countries like India. But it is obvious that it should be designed according to the context of the country and there is no unique structure that can be copied. If banks want to use the full potentials of social networks, they have to focus on these networks beyond the means of electronic reputation and they should seek to engage the customers and predict their behaviors using insights from social data. Besides, banks may face different social, economic and political challenges in implementing social banking that need specific actions and solutions. Efficient use of social networks can not only improve customer satisfaction, but also develop businesses through the acquisition of new customers and increasing customer budget share (Accenture, 2011).


8


Fig. 10. Generations of social banking with regard to required capabilities in each one (adopted from Accenture, 2012).

5.2. Generations of social banking and required capabilities in each one It seems that banks may engage in following different business models in order to define their own social network model (Accenture, 2012). 1. The model based on the experience of multichannel interaction with customers and effective response to their needs (Intelligent multichannel bank). 2. The use of social networks to create more intimacy with customers (Social bank). 3. The model in which banks are at the center of an ecosystem of financial and non-financial services through use of mobile technology (Financial/Non-Financial Digital Ecosystem). Banks which do their maximum effort to take advantages of these business models have raised their annual revenue growth rate from 4 to over 8% in developed markets, while their costs have fallen about 20% and even more. Fig. 10 shows the required capabilities in each mentioned generations. Although these generations are not the final destination they need high maturity level of capabilities in each one. Capability maturity level would be different based on bank features. Also each bank can introduce the desired level of capabilities with regard to the combination of capabilities in different generations that are better suited to bank business purposes. Table 1 shows the level of capabilities for transition from lower generation to upper one. 5.3. Social banking in Iran Iran's banking network divided into four groups of public, private, specialized, and newly privatized. Investigating these four groups in Iran indicates that public banks have more shares in SWIFT1 branches and specialized banks have the lowest share. In terms of other electronic banking indicators, private banks have the largest share. Specialized banks have experienced a decline in indices. However, the share of private and public banks increased in SWIFT branches from 2011. Mainly private banks have appeared better than other banking groups in e1

Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

banking indices due to the efforts to satisfy and attract customers in recent years. Most Iranian banking affairs are now done through SHETAB system. SHETAB is an electronic network that focuses on banking affairs which has been managed by the Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran to link different banks' payment gates to each other. It is designed to help clients use banks services in a 24/7 way (Hanafizadeh et al., 2013). Investigating the current situation of Iranian banks indicates that very few private banks have begun its official activities in social networks. They have formal links in social networks of Aparat, Lenzor, Cloob and Instagram, and have also recently launched a blog as well. Social banking is a key strategy of these banks and related projects have started via bank's financial groups. But the current situation shows that Iranian banks are at the beginning of the path in using social networks for banking practices and they face many challenges in this way. In the following, the methodology for creating social banking roadmap in Iran will be presented. 5.4. Methodology Social banking technology roadmap project has been accomplished by the professional team from one of the research centers in the field of information technology in Iran. After determining the roadmap scope and boundaries, the expert team is selected including 15 persons composed of banking experts, experts of information technology and technology policy specialists. After finalizing and validating the contents of steps and activities of technology roadmapping (shown in Fig. 8) with the experts, key priorities in each layer were also selected (Table 2). Then the project team completed all activities in step1 composed of identifying risks and challenges in the banking industry of Iran, identifying stakeholders and institutions involved in social banking industry in Iran, identifying existing laws and policies related to social banking in Iran, investigating international and local best practices, assessment of current state of the social banking in Iran. In order to extract the contents of each layer in Table 2, the roadmapping process began with brainstorming workshops so that 3 workshops were held with aforementioned expert team. In first workshop after finalizing roadmapping objectives and defining time horizons, experts were asked to determine the reasons for banks' investment in the field of social banking. These reasons were classified and prioritized as drivers of social banking development in Iran. In


L L L H

L L L H

9

Table 2 Layers and sub layers of social banking roadmap. Layers

Purpose

Key sub layers

TC context

Identify challenges in the banking industry and also market drivers and demands

- market demands and drivers - challenges - services

TC Identify services that would be available if capture technological capabilities captured appropriately TC Identify capabilities and processes required to creation

L L M H L M M H L L H M L M H M M H H H A B C D

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

H H H H

M H H H

M H H H

M H H H

M H H H

L M H H

D 1 C 1 B 5 B 4 B 3 B 2 B 1 A 8 A 7 A 6 A 5 A 4 A 3 A 2 A 1

Table 1 Required level of capabilities in each banking generation (adopted from Accenture, 2012). (A1: first capability from generation A in Fig 10) (H = high, M = medium, L = low).

C 2

C 3

D 2

D 3

D 4


- technologies

Workshop 2 and 3, the experts were asked to response the following questions: • • • •

Identify challenges of social banking in Iran Identify services Identify necessary technologies Identify capabilities level of Iranian's banks in each social banking generation • Identify catch up strategy • Identify required activities in each step of catchup The method used in all three workshops was structured nominal group brainstorming that provided everyone the opportunity to participate. After identifying social banking challenges in Iran in workshop 2, a questionnaire were given to experts to determine the level of Iranian banks' capabilities in social banking (according to identified capabilities in Fig. 10). After that in the workshop 3, by reviewing the technological capabilities and identifying technological gaps, catchup strategy is determined with associated activities in each step. Finally the identified technologies and services are categorized according to each step in specified time horizon. 5.5. Results achieved from workshops 5.5.1. Identifying social banking challenges The banking industry in Iran face different challenges which are classified as follows based on the PEST analysis: ✓ Social and human resource challenges - Lack of professional human resources so that they do routine and automatable tasks - Low internet literacy - Lack of accurate information for using electronic banking services - Lack of growth in legal procedures along with electronic banking to solve problems that may be caused by a variety of banking operations - Lack of interest of people to participate in local social networks ✓ Infrastructural and technical challenges - Tool based, non-creative services so that traditional services is offered with new tools - Lack of integrated development of banks with other organizations in the field of information technology so that Banks are not able to communicate electronically with other government agencies such as police, Judiciary and etc. - Lack of coherent database for comprehensive validation of customers - Lack of convergence between bank business goals and IT products - Lack of clear and integrated standards in software systems - Lack of attention to the potentials of the domestic software in banking - Lack of adequate internet broadband to receive services through various channels - Lack of integration and convergence between different channels of


10


Table 3 Technological capability level of Iranian banks (according to capabilities in different generations in Fig. 10). A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A7

A8

B1

B2

B3

B4

B5

C1

C2

C3

D1

D2

D3

D4

M

L

L

M

L

L

M

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

✓ -

access to banking services (Via bank branches, personal computers and mobile) Political challenges Successive sanctions of Iranian banking system and so limited use of credit cards and international cooperation Filtering of social networks that lead to restrictions on activities of businesses in these networks Inability to plan for the business activities in social networks because of the changing policies in this area Economic challenges Safe profit margins for banks and consequently the lack of competitive system

5.5.2. Identifying and selecting social banking technologies At this step, first the technology trend in various areas of social banking was extracted by project team and then the results were given to experts; So that a two-step Delphi process was used to get information from experts. The experts were asked to correct the results and estimate the timelines for the period of 10 years in three phases. Delphi second round were used for verification and correction of the first round. According to studies by project team on technological trends in social banking technologies, major trends including big data, cloud computing, cyber security, communication infrastructure, social media and new digital economy were detected (IDA, 2012). In each of the areas, technology trends for the next 10 years were identified and related applications for social banking were extracted. Following considerations were noticed in selection of technologies (Capgemini, 2013): - The convergence of different digital communication channels. - Focus on core banking system to promote competitiveness. - Informed and educated people that will use or provide social

banking products and services. - Attention to sustainable development.

5.5.3. Identifying services In order to identify social banking services, library studies were conducted by project team and the list of services were extracted. Then the results were finalized by experts. Services are categorized as follows: - Social CRM: Different incentive models for using social services - Social Marketing: Special and attractive offers through personalized banking services - Social banking Operations: banking services in the context of social networks (view account information, receive bills and turnover, open accounts, transfer funds, view details of all investments …) - Nonbank financial operations: crowd funding, p2p lending, micro financing - Social knowledge sharing: free online communities to discuss and exchange views and events

5.5.4. Technological capabilities level and appropriate catch up strategy According to the result of the questionnaires given to experts for assessing the technological capabilities in Iran social banking industry, the level of capabilities are shown in Table 3 that are fairly low in all generations. By comparing the level of Iranian banks capabilities in Table 3 with required level of capabilities in Table 1, we will find the technological gap between Iranian banks and pioneer ones in the world with regard to social banking. to predictability of the future of technologies and technology trends in social banking industry, technological path will be predictable, but because of multiplicity of changes and innovations in the technologies,

Fig. 11. The technology roadmap structure for social banking in Iran.



the accumulation of technology is high and as a result, R&D motivations is low. Therefore, because of average low level of technological capabilities in Iranian banks regarding to social banking, as well as the low level of the expected R&D efforts, path following catch up strategy is recommended by experts for short term. After acquiring the capabilities for multichannel bank services, the phase skipping strategy can be followed for acquiring social bank capabilities and delivering required services. After that, the bank will be able to create its own path for delivering digital bank financial and non-financial services. The structure is shown in Fig. 11. 6. Conclusion This article provides customized technology roadmap architecture for industries of developing countries called as the Learning based Technology Roadmap. The roadmap structure is customized based on appropriate catch up strategy and the catchup strategy is determined based on technological capabilities level. It should be noted that there are other factors that affect catchup strategy including technology regimes, domestic market conditions and competitive environment, access to foreign knowledge and government policies which are not considered in this study. In terms of future research, a larger scale study with whole influencing factors could be conducted to validate the model of this study and to enhance the generalizability of the research conclusions. Based on the results achieved in this paper, differences between learning based roadmap and innovation based roadmap can be outlined as follows: - Learning based roadmap is drawn with an emphasis on challenges and thus technology planning is done based on identified challenges and creating demands in the market; while innovation based roadmap is drawn with regard to opportunities derived from implementation of technologies and existing demand in the market. - In learning based roadmap, there is special attention to increase the level of technological capabilities (both technical and social) in development of technologies, and as a result, the level of technological capabilities and absorptive capacity will be key determinant in direction of technology development but innovation based roadmap is drawn with regard to capturing maximum value of existing technological capabilities for technology development. - Technological path in learning based technology roadmap often starts with import/localization/change of advanced technologies according to level of absorptive capacity but innovation based roadmap usually starts to accelerate innovation and planning for research and development of new technologies.

References Accenture, 2011. Social Banking, The Social Networking Imperative for Retail Banks. Accenture, 2012. Social Banking, The Social Networking Imperative for Retail Banks. (available online at: https://www.scribd.com/doc/87186777/Accenture-SocialBanking-Retail). Capgemini, 2013. Trends in the Global Banking Industry 2013. Key business trends and their implications for the global banking sector. Capgemini, 2014. Social Banking: Leveraging Social Media to Enhance Customer Engagement. Carvalho, M.M., Fleury, A., Lopes, A.P., 2013. An overview of the literature on technology roadmapping (TRM): contributions and trends. Tech. Forcasting Soc. Chang. 80, 1418–1437. Cognizant, 2014. How banks can use social media analytics to drive business advantage. Cognizant Technology Solutions (Available online at: http://www.cognizant.com/ InsightsWhitepapers/How-Banks-Can-Use-Social-Media-Analytics-To-DriveBusiness-Advantage.pdf). Deloitte, 2014. Who Says Banks Can't Be Social? Become a Social Bank, Inside and Out. Fagerberg, J., godinho, M., 2004. innovation and Catching-up, The Oxford Handbook of Innovation (chap 19). Fagerberg, J., Srholec, M., 2008. National innovation systems, capabilities and economic development. Res. Policy 37, 1417–1435.

11

Ghazinoory, S., Aliahmadi, A., Namdarzangeneh, S., Ghodsypour, S.H., 2007. Using AHP and LP for choosing the best alternatives based the gap analysis. Applied mathematics and computation 184 (2), 316–321. Hanafizadeh, P., Behboudi, M., Abedini, K.A., Jalilvand Shirkhani Tabar, M., 2013. Mobilebanking adoption by Iranian bank clients. Telematics Inform. 31 (1), 62–78. Hobday, M., 1997. Innovation in East Asia: The Challenge to Japan. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham & Lyme. Hobday, M., Rush, H., Bessant, J., 2004. Approaching the innovation frontier in Korea: the transition phase to leadership. Res. Policy 33 (10), 1433–1457. Huang, P., Bi, K.-X., 2012. Research on catch up mod of low-carbon technology on China. International Conference on Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE) http:// dx.doi.org/10.1109/ICMSE.2012.6414390 Dallas, TX. Hubert, J. Kiss, Ismael, Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso, Rosa-García, 2014. Do social networks prevent or promote bank runs? J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 101, 87–99. IDA, 2012. Co-creating the future infocomm technology roadmap 2012. Singapore available online at: https://www.ida.gov.sg/~/media/Files/Infocomm%20Landscape/ Technology/TechnologyRoadmap/IDA_ITR2012.pdf. Institute for Development and Research in Banking Technology (IDRBT), 2013g. Social Media Framework for Indian Banking Sector. Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, Chairman. Kheirkhah, A.S., Esmailzadeh, A., Ghazinoory, S., 2009. Developing strategies to reduce the risk of hazardous materials transportation in Iran using the method of fuzzy swot analysis. Transport 24 (4), 325–332. Kim, L., 1997. Imitation to Innovation: The Dynamics of Korea's Technological Learning. Harvard Business School Press. Kim, L., 1999. Building technological capability for industrialization: analytical frameworks and Korea's experience. Ind. Corp. Chang. 8 (1), 111–136. Kim, L., Dahlman, C.J., 1992. Technology policy for industrialization: an integrative framework and Korea's experience. Res. Policy 21, 437–452. Lee, T.J., 2004. Technological learning by national R&D: the case of Korea in CANDU-type nuclear fuel, technovation. Technovation 24, 287–297. Lee, K., Lim, C., 2001. Technological regimes, catching-up and leapfrogging: findings from the Korean industries. Res. Policy 30, 459–483. Lee, S., Park, Y., 2005. Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: overall process and detailed modules. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (5), 567–583. Lee, S., Kang, S., Park, Y., Park, Y., 2007. Technology roadmapping for R&D planning: the case of the Korean parts and materials industry. Technovation 27 (8), 433–445. Mazzoleni, R., Nelson, R., 2007. Public research institutions and economic catch-up. Res. Policy 36, 1512–1528. Phaal, R., Muller, G., 2009. An architectural framework for roadmapping: towards visual strategy. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 76 (1), 39–49. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P., Probert, D.R., 2004. Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 71 (1–2), 5–26. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P., Probert, D.R., 2006. Technology management tools: concept, development and application. Technovation 26 (3), 336–344. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P., Probert, D.R., 2010. Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation: Aligning Technology and Markets in a Dynamic World. Institute for Manufacturing. Phaal, R., O'Sullivan, E., Routley, M., Ford, S., Probert, D.R., 2011. A framework for mapping industrial emergence. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 78 (2), 217–230. Radosevic, S., 1999. International Technology Transfer And Catch-Up In Economic Development. edward elgar publishing (chap3, 4). Rinn, M., 2004. Technology roadmaps: infrastructure for innovation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 71, 67–80. Soofi, A.S., Ghazinoory, S., 2013. Science and Innovations in Iran: Development, Progress, and Challenges, Ebook. Palgrave Macmillan (ISBN: 9781137030108). Teece, D., Pisano, G., 1994. The dynamic capabilities of firms: an introduction. Ind. Corp. Chang. 3 (3), 537–555. The Financial Brands, 2014. Power 100 Social Media Rankings for Banks. Available online at: http://thefinancialbrand.com/40900/power-100-2014-q2-bank-rankings. Viotti, E., 2002. National learning systems: a new approach on technological change in late industrializing economies and evidences from the cases of Brazil and South Korea. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 69, 653–680. Sepehr Ghazinoory is an associate professor in the Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. He received his BSc, MSc and PhD in Industrial Engineering from Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST). He has authored numerous books and articles about cleaner production, strategic planning and management of technology in Persian and English. He was also consultant to the Iran presidential Technology Co-operation Office (TCO) for four years and senior consultant in formulating the Iran Nanotechnology National Initiative. He is currently consultant to different ministries and organizations. Nasrin Dsatranj is a researcher in Iran telecommunication Research center. She has received BSc in Software engineering and MSc in IT management. She is PhD Student in science and Technology policy in Tarbiat Modares University. She has authored many articles about knowledge and technology management. Fatemeh Saghafi is an assistant professor of interdisciplinary group in faculty of new science and technology of University of Tehran. She received his B.S. degree in electrical engineering from Khajeh Nasiroddin Toosi University, Iran. Her MS and Ph.D. were in industrial engineering (Management systems) and she received her PhD from Iran University of Science and Technology. She has worked as a faculty member, Project manager, Group manager In Iran Telecommunication Research Centre from 1995 to 2015. She has been the head of research and scientific communication development in Iran Telecommunication Research Centre more than 1 year until Jan. 2015. She has served as the future


12


studies & strategic manager for some national project in ICT domain. Her main research interests include foresight, Strategic management, system simulation and Technology management and she has authored numerous articles about IT technology, strategic planning and management of technology in Persian and English. Arun Kulshreshtha took over as the Director of the NAM S&T Centre in July 2002. After having graduated in Physics from Agra University in 1959 he joined Banaras Hindu University as a research scholar in Radio Engineering. Subsequently, he completed his doctorate in 1965 from Moscow State University in Physical & Mathematical Sciences (Semiconductor Physics). He extensively contributed to the establishment of the International Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy & New Materials (ARC-I) at

Hyderabad, which is a model organization for technology transfer and development of high performance materials and processes for niche market, and Bharat Immunologicals & Biologicals Corporation Ltd. (BIBCOL) at Bulandshah. He has published about 50 research papers in international journals and knows several languages, including Hindi, English and Russian, over which he has excellent command. Alireza Hasanzadeh is an associate professor in the Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
