Teknik proyeksi Bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk
menentukan ramalan ... Teknik Statistik: Smothing, dekomposisi, box jenkins. 2.
Teknik ...
MODUL PERKULIAHAN
Teknik Proyeksi Bisnis (Forecasting)
Oleh: H. SETYABUDI INDARTONO, MM
PROGRAM STUDI MANAGEMENT FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL UNIVERSITAS NEGERI YOGYAKARTA 2006
1
DAFTAR ISI Pengantar
Smooting Dekomposisi Regresi
2
PERSEMBAHAN
Guru, insirator, motivator ..... Yang secara ikhlas menjadi energizer Mas Bowo Trustco Jakarta Para asatidz, masayikh .... Yang telah memberikan arahan, panduan di jalan Perjuangan Rekan-rekan Tim Trustco se Indonesia, juga Malaysia Para Mujahid Nasrul Fikroh, tatmiyatul kafaah dan tidak lupa kasbul maisyah Special for You, Jogja Team Iwan , Setiya, Junni, Choirul, Fadli, Tak lupa tim Unit Ngaglik 2 Istri Tercinta, Yayuk Soraya Anak-anak, Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin Rofiq Wafi’ Muhammad Muhammad Haisan Haedar
3
PENGANTAR -
Teknik proyeksi Bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk menentukan ramalan (perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu di masa yang akan datang.
-
Kelangsungan bisnis dipengaruhi oleh faktor lingkungan kontrol dan sosial, lingkungan teknologi dan lingkungan ekonomi mikro
Penentuan Akurasi forcasting 1. Data yang relevan: Jenis, Sifat dan sumber, data kualitatif dan kuntitatif 2. Teknik peramalan: kualitatif dan kuantitatif 1. Teknik Statistik: Smothing, dekomposisi, box jenkins 2. Teknik deterministik: regresi sederhana, regresi berganda, auto regresi, model input output 3. Pemilihan teknik peramalan 1. Pola atau karakteristik 2. Jangka waktu 3. Biaya 4. Tingkat akurasi
4
SMOOTHING METHOD Moving Average
Single Moving Average
Ft = Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-2 ….+ Xt-n+1 N Karakteristik Single Moving Average Untuk menentukan ramalan pada periode yang akan datan memerlukan data historis selama jangka waktu tertentu Semakin panjang jangka waktu average semakin halus efek pelicinannya
Forecasting error Error = Riil – Ramalan Mean Absolut Error = | Xt – Ft| N Mean Square Error = (Xt – Ft)2 N Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bulan
Penjualan
January February March April May June July
100 120 110 105 115 125 125
Forecast
110.0 115.0 107.5 110.0 120.0
2 Bulanan Error Abs
0.0 -10.0 7.5 15.0 5.0
0.0 10.0 7.5 15.0 5.0
Square
0.0 100.0 56.3 225.0 25.0
5
8 9 10 11 12
August September October November December
115 110 120 125 115 Jumlah
125.0 120.0 112.5 115.0 122.5 1157.5
-10.0 -10.0 7.5 10.0 -7.5 7.5 Mean
10.0 10.0 7.5 10.0 7.5 82.5 8.3
100.0 100.0 56.3 100.0 56.3 818.8 81.9
Double Moving Average
Menghitung moving average bergerak pertama dengan diberi simbol StI, yang dihitung dari data historis. Menghitung moving average bergerak kedua dengan diberi simbol StII, yang dihitung dari data bergerak pertama Menentukan besarnya nilai konstanta at=2SI -SII Menentukan besarnya slope bt = 2/(V -1) x (SI-SII) V = Moving Menentukan besarnya forcasting Ft + m = a +b(m) m = selisih tahun forecast
6
Double Moving Average Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
moving Bulan January February March April May June July August September October November December
5 Penjualan 1300 1360 1400 1320 1290 1470 1350 1415 1530 1410 1520 1490
I
II
S
S
1334.00 1368.00 1366.00 1369.00 1411.00 1435.00 1445.00 1473.00
1369.60 1389.80 1405.20 1426.60
Konstanta
1452.40 1480.20 1484.80 1519.40
Sloop
20.70 22.60 19.90 23.20
forecast
Error
1390.30 1412.40 1425.10 1449.80
139.70 -2.40 94.90 40.20 Mean
Absolut
139.70 2.40 94.90 40.20 277.20 69.30
Square
19516.09 5.76 9006.01 1616.04 30143.90 7535.98
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Soal Latihan Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa Mean absolute error dan mean square errornya. Data penjualan perusahaan A. Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bulan January February March April May June July August September October November December
Penjualan 1050 1305 1100 1000 975 1230 1250 1200 1350 1100 1050 1050
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa Mean absolute error dan mean square errornya. keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B. Trimester 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Profit 738 857 778 729 847 829 972 927 837 904 627 498
8
Exponential Smoothing
Single ExponentialSmooting Pemberian bobot data baru a, data lama (1- ), data yang lebih lama (1- )2 Besarnnya adalah antara 0 dan 1 -
Ft+1 = Xt + (1-)Ft
-
Ft+1 = Ft + (Xt–Ft)
(Xt–Ft) merupakan forecast error pada periode t Dalam melakukan peramalan, besarnya a ditentukan secara trial error sampai mendapatkan forecast error terkecil
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bulan January February Maret April May June July August September October November December
Penjualan 1300 1360 1400 1320 1300 1450 1325 1400 1500 1450 1500 1400
Forecast
Error
1300.0 1324.60 1355.51 1340.95 1324.16 1375.76 1354.95 1373.42 1425.32 1435.44 1461.91
60.0 75.4 -35.5 -41.0 125.8 -50.8 45.1 126.6 24.7 64.6 -61.9
Abs 60.0 75.4 35.5 41.0 125.8 50.8 45.1 126.6 24.7 64.6 61.9 711.3
Square 3600.0 5685.2 1261.2 1677.2 15835.1 2576.2 2029.9 16023.0 609.3 4168.4 3832.6 57297.9
Double Exponential Smooting
Dalam melakukan peramalan, dimulai dengan menentukan besarnya yang ditentukan secara trial error Menentukan smooting pertama S’t
9
S’t = Xt + (1-) S’t-1 Menentukan smooting kedua S’’t S’’t = S’t + (1-) S’’t-1 Menentukan besarnya konstanta at t = 2 S’t - S’’t Menentukan besarnya slope bt bt = (S’t - S’’t) 1- Menentukan besarnya forecast Ft + m = at +bt (m)
10
Double Exponential Smooting I
II
=Periode 1
Bulan January
Unit 1300
S 1300
S 1300
Konstanta
Sloop
forecast
Error
Absolut
Square
2
February
1360
1306.0
1300.6
1311.4
0.6
1300.0
60.00
60.00
3,600
3
March
1400
1315.4
1302.1
1328.72
1.48
1312.0
88.00
88.00
7,744
4
April
1320
1315.9
1303.5
1328.262
1.38
1330.2
-10.20
10.20
104
5
May
1290
1313.3
1304.4
1322.108
0.98
1329.6
-39.64
39.64
1,571
6
June
1470
1328.9
1306.9
1351.003
2.45
1323.1
146.91
146.91
21,583
7
July
1350
1331.1
1309.3
1352.797
2.42
1353.5
-3.45
3.45
8
August
1415
1339.4
1312.3
1366.573
3.01
1355.2
59.79
59.79
3,574
9
September
1530
1358.5
1316.9
1400.065
4.62
1369.6
160.41
160.41
25,732
10
October
1410
1363.7
1321.6
1405.694
4.67
1404.7
5.32
5.32
11
November
1520
1379.3
1327.4
1431.196
5.77
1410.4
109.63
109.63
12,020
12
December
1490
1390.4
1333.7
1447.04
6.30
1437.0
53.04
53.04
2,813
736.39
78,782
12
28
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Soal Latihan Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa nilai untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terkecil serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn Data penjualan perusahaan A. Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bulan January February March April May June July August September October November December
Penjualan 1050 1305 1100 1000 975 1230 1250 1200 1350 1100 1050 1050
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa nilai untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terke cil serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B. Trimester 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Profit 738 857 778 729 847 829 972 927 837 904 627 498
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DECOMPOSITION METHOD TREND
Tren adalah rata-rata perubahan dalam jangka panjang Tren Linier Trend Parabolik Tran eksponensial
TREND LINIER BEBAS Trend Bebas yaitu penarikan garis trend tanpa menggunakan formula matematis yaitu digunakan dengan metoda bebas, namun bukan berarti tanpa pertimbangan.
TREND SETENGAH RATA -RATA Data yang ada dibagi dua kelompok dengan jumlah yang sama Tahun dasar ada pada tengh -tengah kelompik I Pada masing-masing kelompok ditentukan nilai X, semitotal dan semi average Jumlah nilai X pada kelompok I harus nol Proyeksi di tahun yang akan datang tergantung berapa besarnya nilai X
13
Nilai trend dihitung dengan rumus Y = a + bX
a = rata-rata kelompok I b = (rata-rata kelompok II – rata-rata kelompok I)/n n = Jumlah data masing -masing kelompok X = nilai yang ditentukan berdasarkan tahun dasar
Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil) Tahun
Y
X
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
120 125 125 160 140 160
-1 0 1 2 3 4
a= b=
123.33 153.33
3
123.33
Persamaan Tren Y=a+bX Y=a+bX 123.33
+
Semitotal
Semi avrg
370
123.3333
460
153.3333
=
10
10
X
Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil) Tahun
Y
X
1994 1995 1996 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000
120 125 130 145 145 150 160 165
-3 -1 1 3 3 5 7 9
a= b=
130.00 155.00 2
x
130.00 4
=
Semitotal
Semi avrg
520
130.00
620
155.00
3.125
14
Persamaan Tren Y=a+bX Y=a+bX 130.00
+
3.125
X
TREND DENGAN METODE KUADRAT TERKECIL (LE AST SQUARE) Data Ganjil Y = a + bX a = Y/n a = YX/X2 a = Y/n b = XY/X2 Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Jumlah
Y 125 160 140 160 175 760
X -2 -1 0 1 2 0
XY -250 -160 0 160 350 100
a=
760 5
=
152
b=
100 10
=
10
Persamaan Tren Y=a+bX Y=a+bX 152
+
10
2
X 4 1 0 1 4 10
X
Forecast Tahun 2005 2009
th ke (X) 4 8
Y=a+ bX 192.00 232.00
15
Data Genap Tahun 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Jumlah
Y 120 125 125 160 140 160 175 175 1180
a=
1180 8
X -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 0 =
b=
720 = 168 Persamaan Tren Y=a+bX Y=a+ 148 bX
XY -840 -625 -375 -160 140 480 875 1225 720
2
X 49 25 9 1 1 9 25 49 168
148
4.3
+
4.29
X
TREND MOMENT Y = a + bX Y = n.a + Xb YX = X.a /X2.b 2
Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Y 125 160 140 160 175
X 0 1 2 3 4
XY 0 160 280 480 700
X 0 1 4 9 16
Jumlah
760
10
1620
30
760 1620
= =
1520 = 1620 = 100 = b = a = persamaan Y=
5 10
a+ a+
10 30
b b
10 10
a+ a+
20 30 10
b b b
10.0
X
10.0 132 132
+
16
MENGUBAH BENTUK PERS AMAAN TREN Merubah titik origin Y= 132 + 10 X titik awal pada tahun Perubahan titik pada Y= 132 + 10 X Y= 132 + 10 3 Y= 162 Persamaan baru Y= 162 + 10 X Tren rata-rata perbulanan Y= 132 + 10 X 12 12 Y= 11 + 0.83 X Tren rata-rata per triwulanan Y= 162 + 10 X 4 4 Y= 41 + 2.5 X
1999 2002
Tren rata-rata bulanan Y= 132 + 10 X 2 12 12 Y= 11 + 0.07 Tren rata-rata triwulanan Y= 132 + 10 X 2 4 4 Y= 33 + 0.63
X
X
TREND PARABOLIK Y = a + bX + cX 2 Y = n.a + cX2 YX = bX2 X2Y = aX2 + cX4
Tahun 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jumlah
Y 120 130 140 120 150 140 130 140 130 120 1320
X -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 0
XY -1080 -910 -700 -360 -150 140 390 700 910 1080 20
2
X 81 49 25 9 1 1 9 25 49 81 330
2
XY 9720 6370 3500 1080 150 140 1170 3500 6370 9720 41720
4
X 6561 2401 625 81 1 1 81 625 2401 6561 19338
17
160 Series1 150
Poly. (Series1)
140 130 120 110 100 1994
1996
1998
1,320
=
10
a
20
=
330
b
41,720
=
330
41,720
=
1,320
2000
2002
+
330
c
a
+
19,338
c
330
a
+
19,338
c
=
10
a
+
330
c
41,720
=
330
a
+
19,338
c
43,560
=
330
a
+
10,890
c
- 1,840
=
8,448
c
Y
=
c
=
-0.2
a
=
139
b
=
0.06
139
+
0.06
X
+
0.22
X
2004
2006
2
18
TREND EKSPONENSIAL Y = a + bx Log Y = Log a + X Log b Log a = Log Y n Log b = X Log Y X2 Tahun 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jumlah
Log a =
Log b =
Y 1250 1300 1410 1250 1200 1450 1300 1430 1400 1350 13340
Log Y 3.10 3.11 3.15 3.10 3.08 3.16 3.11 3.16 3.15 3.13 31.24
Log Y n X Log Y n
X
X -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 0
2
81 49 25 9 1 1 9 25 49 81 330
=
31.24 10
=
3.1243
=
0.69 330
=
0.0021
0.0021
X
Log Y = Log a + Log b. X Log Y = 3.1243 +
X log Y -27.87 -21.80 -15.75 -9.29 -3.08 3.16 9.34 15.78 22.02 28.17 0.690
VARIASI MUSIM Metode Rata-rata Sederhana 1. Menentukan penjualan rata -rata tiap triwulan pada tahun -tahun data yang diketahui 2. Mengurangi penjualan rata -rata tersebut dengan akumulasi nilai b (Sloop) 3. Menentukan Indeks Musiman = (rata-rata-b komulatif) triwulan tahun tertentu (rerata-b komulatif) triwulan seluruh tahun
19
Tahun 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Jumlah a=
Y 195 207 210 215 225 230 236 1518
1518 7
b=
184 28
=
=
X -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0
2
XY -585 -414 -210 0 225 460 708 184
X 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 28
216.9
7
Persamaan Tren Y=a+bX Y = a + b X 216.9 Origin 1996 Y = a + b X 217 4 Y=a+bX 54
+
+ +
6.57
6.57 X 2 4 0.41
X
X
Rata-rata sederhana 1993 TW TW TW TW
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1 2 3 4
50 60 45 40
55 63 47 43
53 59 50 48
49 63 46 55
56 64 55 50
51 70 52 57
54 67 59 56
Jumlah rerata
195 48.8
208 52
210 52.5
213 53.3
225 56.3
230 57.5
236 59
rata2 52.6 63.7 50.6 49.9
B Kum 0.41 0.82 1.23 1.64
Rata2 b kum 52.16 62.89 49.34 48.21 212.61 53.15
VARIASI MUSIM
Metode presentase terhadap tren 1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil 2. Menyajikan data tren penjualan
20
Index (%) 99% 120% 95% 94%
3. Menghitung prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren penjualan 4. Mencari median persentase tersebut pada tiap triwulan 5. Menentukan indeks musiman
METODE PRESENTASE TE RHADAP TREN 1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil 1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
50 60 45 40
55 63 47 43
53 59 50 48
49 63 46 55
56 64 55 50
51 70 52 57
54 67 59 56
TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
Y=
217 + 6.57 X Penjualan Origin tahun 1996 54.2 + 0.41 X Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996
Y=
Origin tengah tahun 1996 1993 1994 TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
-13.5 -12.5 -11.5 -10.5
-9.5 -8.5 -7.5 -6.5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
-5.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5
-1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5
2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5
perubahan origin ke TW 1 tahun 1997 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
-16 -15 -14 -13
-12 -11 -10 -9
-8 -7 -6 -5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0 1 2 3
1998
1999
4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11
Y=
54.2 + 0.41 X Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996 perubahan ke origin TW 1 1997 Y= 54.2 + 0.41 2.5 Y= 54.2 + 1.03 Y= 55.2 Persamaan tren baru Y= 55.2 + 0.41 X
21
Nilai tren penjualan triwulan 1993 -1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1998
1999
TW TW TW TW
55.2 55.7 56.1 56.5
56.9 57.3 57.7 58.1
58.5 58.9 59.3 59.8
Prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1998
1999
TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
48.7 49.1 49.5 49.9
50.3 50.7 51.1 51.5
52.0 52.4 52.8 53.2
53.6 54.0 54.4 54.8
103%
109%
102%
91%
101%
90%
92%
122%
124%
113%
117%
115%
122%
114%
91%
92%
95%
85%
98%
90%
99%
80%
83%
90%
100%
89%
98%
94%
Median TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
90%
91%
92%
101%
102%
103%
109%
113%
114%
115%
117%
122%
122%
124%
85%
90%
91%
92%
95%
98%
99%
80%
83%
89%
90%
94%
98%
100%
400%
Nilai rata-rata median = 100 400.2 4
Indeks Musim Nilai TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
101%
101%
117%
117%
92%
92%
90%
90%
22
Variasi Musim Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak 1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan letakkan pada pertengahan data 2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan pada pertengahan data 3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2 dengan 8 TW 4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak 5. Menentukan median persentase tersebut 6. Menentukan indeks musim
Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak 1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan letakkan pada pertengahan data 2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan pada pertengahan data 3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2 dengan 8 TW 4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak Penjualan
1993
1994
1995
1996
TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
50 60 45 40 55 63 47 43 53 59 50 48 49 63 46 55
jml bergerak 4TW
195 200 203 205 208 206 202 205 210 206 210 206 213 220 221
Jml bergerak 2 th
395 403 408 413 414 408 407 415 416 416 416 419 433 441
rata-rata bergerak
49 50 51 52 52 51 51 52 52 52 52 52 54 55
% penjualan thd MOVA
91% 79% 108% 122% 91% 84% 104% 114% 96% 92% 94% 120% 85% 100%
23
TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW
1997
1998
1999
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
56 64 55 50 51 70 52 57 54 67 59 56
230 225 220 226 223 230 233 230 237 236
451 455 445 446 449 453 463 463 467 473
56 57 56 56 56 57 58 58 58 59
99% 113% 99% 90% 91% 124% 90% 98% 93% 113%
Variasi Musim Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak •
Menentukan median persentase tersebut
•
Menentukan indeks musim
MEDIAN
TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
0% 0% 0% 0%
91% 113% 85% 79%
93% 113% 90% 84%
94% 114% 91% 90%
99% 120% 91% 92%
104% 122% 96% 98%
108% 124% 99% 100%
97% 117% 91% 91% 99%
Indeks Musim
97% 117% 91% 91%
24
Variasi SIKLIS
1. Menyusun Penjualan Riil per teriwulan 2. Menyusun tren penjualan triwulan (T) 3. Menyusun indeks musim (M) 4. Menentukan nilai normal (TxM) 5. Menentukan perubahan Siklis (S) dan random (R); penjualan riil / nilai normal 6. Menentukan jumlah tertim bang bergerak (weighted moving total)
1999
rata-rata bergerak
1998
jumlah bergerak
1997
Variasi S&R
1996
TxM
1995
indek Musim (M)
1994
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Tren (T)
1993
TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW TW
Penjualan
7. Menentukan indeks siklis (rata -rata tertimbang)
50 60 45 40 55 63 47 43 53 59 50 48 49 63 46 55 56 64 55 50 51 70 52 57 54 67 59 56
48.67 49.08 49.49 49.90 50.31 50.72 51.13 51.54 51.96 52.37 52.78 53.19 53.60 54.01 54.42 54.83 55.24 55.65 56.06 56.47 56.88 57.29 57.71 58.12 58.53 58.94 59.35 59.76
103% 122% 91% 80% 109% 124% 92% 83% 102% 113% 95% 90% 91% 117% 85% 100% 101% 115% 98% 89% 90% 122% 90% 98% 92% 114% 99% 94%
50 60 45 40 55 63 47 43 53 59 50 48 49 63 46 55 56 64 55 50 51 70 52 57 54 67 59 56
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
25
TW TW TW TW
1 2 3 4
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
48.67 49.08 49.49 49.90
50.31 50.72 51.13 51.54
51.96 52.37 52.78 53.19
53.60 54.01 54.42 54.83 216.9
55.24 55.65 56.06 56.47
56.88 57.29 57.71 58.12
58.53 58.94 59.35 59.76
Indeks Musim 99% 100% 100% 101%
Nilai rata-rata median = 54.21 216.9 4
Variasi RANDOM
Variasi random merupakan suatu hal yang terjadi secara tiba -tiba dan sukar diperkirkan Latihan Berapa prediksi biaya pada tahunberikutnya untuk dua perusahaan di bawah. Tahun 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A 1867 1879 1786 1098 1987 1697 1769 1999 1768 1987 1097 1679
B 2801 2819 2679 1647 2981 2546 2654 2999 2652 2981 1646 2519
Hitunglah dengan metode: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Tren Linier Least Square Tren Momen Tren prabolik Tren Exponensial
26
Dengan metode tren momen dan least square, Carilah perkiraan penjualan tahun bulan januari tahun berikutnya dari data penjualan: Tahun jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Sale 1,350 1,225 1,475 1,530 1,625 1,500 1,560 1,640 1,475 1,575 1,640 1,700
27
REGRESI Regresi Sederhana Tahun 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Jumlah
2
Y
2
Y
Y
X
XY
X
1,240
690
855,600
476,100
1,537,600
1,264
1,310
725
949,750
525,625
1,716,100
1,326
1,270
710
901,700
504,100
1,612,900
1,299
1,360
740
1,006,400
547,600
1,849,600
1,352
1,375
750
1,031,250
562,500
1,890,625
1,370
1,320
700
924,000
490,000
1,742,400
1,281
1,290
695
896,550
483,025
1,664,100
1,272
9,165
5,010
6,565,250
3,588,950
12,013,325
9,165
Y-Y
(Y-Y)
-24
555
-16
250
-29
848
8
57
5
23
39
1,494
18
308
0
3,534
Standar eror 2 Se = qsrt ((Y-Y) /(n-2)) Se= 26.588
Korelasi r = n XY - X.Y 2
2
2
2
sqrt (nX -(X) . (ny -(Y) ) 0.86 Uji a Sa = Se/sqrt (n) Sa = 10.049 ta = a/Sa ta = 3.64 t tabel
ta
(,n-2) (0.05, 7-2) (0.05,5) > a signifikan
=
2
2.721
t tabel
28
Uji b Sb = Se/sqrt (xi) xi = Xi2-1/n(xi)(xi) xi = Sb = tb = b/Sb tb = t tabel
tb
3,221 0.47
3.80 (,n-2) (0.05, 7-2) (0.05,5)
2.721
t tabel > b signifikan
Uji r 2 tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r ) tr = 3.80 t tabel (,n-2) (0.05, 7-2) (0.05,5) tr
=
2.721
> t tabel r signifikan
29
Auto Regresi Tahun
Y
X1
X2
1995
12
1.4
10
1996
15
1.3
11
1997
7
1.9
9
1998
16
1.2
13
1999
20
1.1
19
Y
2
X1
2
2
144
2
225
4
49
1
256
1
400
Jumlah 70 7 62 1,074 Y = n.a + b1. X1+ b2 X2 2 X1Y = aX1 + b1 X1 + b2 X1X2
10
2
X1.Y
X2.Y
100
16.8
120
121
19.5
165
13.3
63
169
19.2
208
361
22
380
832
91
936
X2
81
X1.X2 14 14 17 16 21 82
X2Y = a X2 + b1 X1X2 + b2X2 2
5 Y = X1Y = 6.9 X2Y = 62
a+ a+ a+
7 10 82
b1 + b1 + b1 +
62 82 832
b2 b2 b2
= = =
70 91 936
a+ a+ a+ a+
6.9 9.9 48 50 1.9
b1 + b1 + b1 + b1 +
62 81.9 428 410
b2 b2 b2 b2
= = = =
70 90.8 483 454
b1 +
18.3
b2
=
29
10 82 614 565 49 1.9 -96 -96
b1 + b1 + b1 + b1 + b1 +
82 832 5078 5741 -663
b2 b2 b2 b2 b2
= = = = =
91 936 5630 6458 -829
b1 + b1 + b1 +
18.3 1286 902 384
b2 b2 b2 b2 b2 b1 a
= = = = = = =
29 1608 1430 178 0.46 -10.6 22.85
X1 +
0.46
5 6.9 34.5 34.5
6.9 62 428 428
a+ a+ a+ a+
Y = a + b1. X1+ b2 X2 Y=
22.8
+
10.58
X2
30
Regresi Berganda 2
X
2
Tahun
Penjualan (X)
Variabel (Xt)
X.Xt
Xt
2001
70
60
4,200
3,600
4,900
2002
90
75
6,750
5,625
8,100
2003
100
70
7,000
4,900
10,000
2004
115
90
10,350
8,100
13,225
2005
110
100
11,000
10,000
12,100
2006
125
115
14,375
13,225
15,625
610
510
53,675
45,450
63,950
Sloop b=
6 6
b=
53,675
-610
45,450
260100
510
0.87
konstanta a=
610
a=
27.8
-
0.87 6
510
+
0.87
Y=a+bX Y=
Forecast 2007 2010 2020
27.8
tahun pengaruh 2005 2008 2018
tahun pengaruh 100 2006 2016
tahun pengaruh 115 2014
X
tahun pengaruh
2012
tahun pengaruh
2010
Dependen
Y=a+bX
100 115 127.7380952
31
114.70 127.74 138.81
Koefisien korelasi r=
r= r=
6
53,675
-510
610
sqrt {( 10,950 12,090 0.91
6
45,450
-260100
Signifikansi Korelasi 2 tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r ) tr = 4.27 t tabel (,n-2) (0.05, 7-2) (0.05,5) tr
)(
6
63,950
372100
2.721
> t tabel r signifikan
Latihan Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan antara variabel di bawah Tahun 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
gaji 1,000 1,200 1,100 900 1,200 1,100 1,350
kelahiran 20 35 20 30 40 20 20
Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan variabel di bawah, dan carilah penjualan tahun 2010 Tahun 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Penjualan 120 120 140 135 150 110
32
)}
TUGAS TPB Ketentuan: 1. tidak boleh ada tugas yang sama persis antar mahasiswa 2. masing-masing mahasiswa memilih variable yang akan menjadi variable dependen dan independennya (regresi berganda: variable independent minimal 2 variabel) 3. objek berupa perusahaan/lembaga profit/non profit 4. jumlah responden minimal 50 (50 karyawan/anggota) 5. dikumpulkan sepekan sebelum ujian akhir
Bentuk laporan Bab I : pendahuluan/latar belakang masa lah Bab II: Rencana penelitian Bab III: hasil penelitian Bab IV: Perhitungan dan analisis Bab V: kesimpulan dan saran Lampiran-lampiran - angket terisi - resum angket - perhitungan statistik - regresi
33
WHAT'S MY MBTI PERSONALITY TYPE? For each item, select either a or b. If you feel both a and b are true, decide which one is more like you, even if it is only slightly more true.
1. I would rather a) Solve a new and complicated problem.
2. I like to a) Work alone in a quiet place. b) Be where the action is.
b) Work on something I have done before. 3. I want a boss who
4. When I work on a project, I
a) Establishes and applies criteria a) Like to finish it and get some in decisions. closure. b) Considers individual needs and b) Often leave it open for makes exceptions. possible changes. 5. When making a decision, the most important considerations are a) Rational thoughts, ideas, and data. b) People's feelings and values.
6. On a project, I tend to a) Think it over and over before deciding how to proceed. b) Start working on it right away, thinking about it as I go along.
7. When working on a project, I
8. In my work, I prefer to
a) Maintain as much control as possible.
a) Work on several projects at a time, and learn as much as possible about each one.
b) Explore various options.
b) Have one project that is challenging and keeps me busy. 9. I often
10. When discussing a problem with colleagues, it is easy for me a) Make lists and plans whene ver to I start something and may hate to seriously alter my plans. a) See "the big picture." b) Avoid plans and just let things progress as I work on them.
b) Grasp the specifics of the situation.
11. When the phone rings in my office or at home, I usually
12. Which word describes you better?
a) Consider it an interruption.
a) Analytical.
b) Do not mind answering it.
b) Empathetic.
13. When I am working on an
14. When I listen to someone
34
assignment, I tend to a) Work steadily and consistently. b) Work in bursts of energy with "down time" in between.
talk on a subject, I usually try to a) Relate it to my own experience and see if it fits. b) Assess and analyze the message.
15. When I come up with new ideas, 16. When working on a project, I I generally prefer to a) "Go for it." b) Like to contemplate the ideas some more 17. When I read something, I usually
a) Narrow the scope so it is clearly defined. b) Broaden the scope to include related aspects. 18. When I have to m ake a decision in a hurry, I often
a) Confine my thoughts to what is a) Feel uncomfortable and wish written there. I had more information. b) Read between the lines and relate the words to other ideas.
b) Am able to do so with available data.
19. In a meeting, I tend to
20. In work, I prefer spending a great deal of time on issues of
a) Continue formulating my ideas as I talk about them. b) Only speak out after I have carefully thought the issue through. 21. In meetings, I am most often annoyed with people who a) Come up with many sketchy ideas.
a) Ideas. b) People. 22. I am a a) Morning person. b) Night owl.
b) Lengthen meetings with many practical details. 23. What is your style in preparing for a meeting?
24. In a meeting, I would prefer for people to
a) I am willing to go in and be responsive.
a) Display a fuller range of emotions.
b) I like to be fully prepared and usually sketch an outline of the meeting. 25. I would rather work for an organization where a) My job was intellectually stimulating.
b) Be more task oriented.
26. On weekends, I tend to a) Plan what I will do. b) Just see what happens and
35
b) I was committed to its goals and mission. 27. I am more a) Outgoing.
decide as I go along. 28. I would rather work for a boss who is a) Full of new ideas.
b) Contemplative.
b) Practical. In the following, choose th e word in each pair that appeals to you more: 29.
30. a) Social.
a) Ingenuity.
b) Theoretical.
b) Practicality.
31.
32. a) Organized.
a) Active.
b) Adaptable.
b) Concentration.
36
WHAT'S MY LOCUS OF CONTROL? For each of the following ten statements, select the choice with which you agree more.
1.
Making a lot of money is largely a matter of getting the right breaks. Promotions are earned through hard work and persistence.
I have noticed that there is a direct connection between how hard I study and the 2. grades I get. Many times, the reactions of teachers seem haphazard to me. The number of divorces indicates that more and more people are not trying to 3. their marriages work. make Marriage is largely a gamble .
4.
It is silly to think that one can really change another person's basic attitudes. When I am right I can convince others.
5.
Getting promoted is really a matter of being a little luckier than the next person. In our society, a person's future earning power is dependent upon his or her ability.
6.
If one knows how to deal wit h people, they are really quite easily led. I have little influence over the way other people behave.
The grades I make are the result of my own efforts; luck has little or nothing to do 7. it. with Sometimes I feel that I have little to do with the grades I get. People like me can change the course of world affairs if we make ourselves heard. 8.
It is only wishful thinking to believe that one can readily influence what happens in our society.
9.
A great deal that happens to me is probably a matter of chance. I am the master of my fate.
Getting along with people is a skill that must be practiced. 10. It is almost impossible to figure out how to please some people.
37
HOW FLEXIBLE AM I? Indicate the degree to which you think the following statements are true or false by selecting one of the following choices: Certainly, always true Generally true Somewhat true, but with exceptions Somewhat false, but with exceptions Generally false Certainly, always false 1. In social situations, I have the ability to alter my behavior if I feel that something else is called for. 2. I am often able to read people's true emotions correctly through their eyes. 3. I have the ability to control the way I come across to people, depending on the impression I wish to give them. 4. In conversations, I am sensitive to even the slightest change in the facial expression of the person I'm conversing with. 5. My powers of intuition are quite good when it c omes to understanding others' emotions and motives. 6. I can usually tell when others consider a joke in bad taste, even though they may laugh convincingly. 7. When I feel that the image I am portraying isn't working, I can readily change it to something that does. 8. I can usually tell when I've said something inappropriate by reading the listener's eyes. 9. I have trouble changing my behavior to suit different people and different situations. 10. I have found that I can adjust my behavior to meet the requiremen ts of any situation I find myself in. 11. If someone is lying to me, I usually know it at once from that person's manner of expression. 12. Even when it might be to my advantage, I have difficulty putting up a good front. 13. Once I know what the situation calls for, it's easy for me to regulate my actions accordingly.
38
HOW PROACTIVE AM I? Respond to each statement by indicating the extent to which you agree or disagree with them. Use the following rating scale for your responses: Strong disagree Moderately disagree Slightly disagree Neither agree or disagree Slightly agree Moderately agree Strongly agree 1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life. 2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the world. 3. I tend to let others take the initiative to start new projects. 4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive change. 5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas. 6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into real ity. 7. If I see something I don't like, I fix it. 8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it happen. 9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others' opposition. 10. I excel at identifying opportunities. 11. I am always looking for better ways to do things. 12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it happen. 13. I love to challenge the status quo. 14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on. 15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities. 16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can. 17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.
39
HOW WELL DO I HANDLE AMBIGUITY? Respond to each of the following statements by indicating the extent to which you agree or disagree with th em. Strong disagree Moderately disagree Slightly disagree Neither agree or disagree Slightly agree Moderately agree Strongly agree
1. An expert who doesn't come up with a definite answer probably doesn't know too much. Select an Option
2. I would like to live in a foreign country for a while. Select an Option
3. The sooner we all acquire similar values and ideals, the better. Select an Option
4. A good teacher is one who makes you wonder a bout your way of looking at things. Select an Option
5. I like parties where I know most of the people more than ones where all or most of the people are complete strangers. Select an Option
6. Teachers or supervisors who hand out vague assignments give a chance for one to show initiative and originality. Select an Option
7. A person who leads an even, regular life in which few surprises or unexpected happenings arise really has a lot to be grateful f or. Select an Option
8. Many of our most important decisions are based on insufficient information. Select an Option
9. There is really no such thing as a problem that can't be solved. Select an Option
10. People who fit their lives to a schedule probably miss most of the joy of living. Select an Option
11. A good job is one in which what is to be done and how it is to be done are always clear. Select an Option
40
12. It is more fun to tackle a complicated problem than to solve a simple one. Select an Option
13. In the long run, it is possible to get more done by tackling small, simple problems than large and complicated ones. Select an Option
14. Often the most interesting and stimulating people are those who don't mind being different and original. Select an Option
15. What we are used to is always preferable to what is unfamiliar. Select an Option
16. People who insist upon a yes or no answer just don't know how complicated things really are. Select an Option
41
HOW CREATIVE AM I? Review the 30 adjectives that follow. Being honest and forthright wit h your answers, identify only those items that accurately describe you:
affected
intelligent
capable
inventive
cautious
mannerly
clever
narrow interests
commonplace
original
confident
reflective
conservative
resourceful
conventional
self-confident
dissatisfied
sexy
egotistical
sincere
honest
snobbish
humorous
submissive
individualistic
suspicious
informal
unconventional
insightful
wide interests
42
AM I a TYPE-A? Identify the number on the scale that best characterizes your behavior for each trait.
Casual about appointments 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Not competitive 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Never feel rushed 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Take things one at a time 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Slow doing things 1 Express feelings 1 Many interests 1
Never late Very competitive Always feel rushed Try to do many things at once Fast (eating, walking, etc.) "Sit on" feelings Few interests outside work
43
WHAT DO I VALUE? Listed below are two sets of statements. The first list presents 10 terminal values. These are desirable end-states of existence. Think of them as goals that you might like to achieve during your lifetime. The second list presents 10 instrumental values. These are preferable modes of behavior, or means of achieving the terminal values. For each list, rank the statements according to how important each is to you personally. Score a "1" next to the value that is most important, a "2" next to the second most important, and so forth. Treat each list separately. Terminal Values 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Happiness; satisfaction in life Knowledge and wisdom Peace and harmony in the world Pride in accomplishment Prosperity; wealth Lasting friendships Recognition from peers Salvation; finding eternal life Security; freedom from threat
0
Self-respect Instrumental Values 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Assertiveness; standing up for yourself Being helpful or caring toward others Dependability; being counted upon by others Education and intellectual pursuits Hard work and achievement Obedience; following the wishes of others Open-mindedness; receptivity to new ideas Self-sufficiency; independence Truthfulness; honesty Being well-mannered and courteous toward others
44
HOW INVOLVED AM I IN MY JOB? Below are ten statements each of which you may agree or disagree with depending on your personal evaluation of your present job. Please indicate the degree of your agreement or disagreement with each statement using the following scale: 1 = Strongly disagree 2 = Disagree 3 = Mildly disagree 4 = Mildly agree 5 = Agree 6 = Strongly agree 1. The most important things that happen to me involve my pr esent job. Make a Selection
2. To me, my job is only a small part of who I am. Make a Selection
3. I am very much involved personally in my job. Make a Selection
4. I live, eat, and breathe my job. Make a Selection
5. Most of my interests are centered around my job. Make a Selection
6. I have very strong ties with my present job which would be very difficult to break. Make a Selection
7. Usually I feel detached from my job. Make a Selection
8. Most of my personal life goals are job -oriented. Make a Selection
9. I consider my job to be very central to my existence. Make a Selection
10. I like to be absorbed in my job most of the time. Make a Selection
45
HOW SATISFIED AM I WITH MY JOB? For the 20 items on this questionnaire, select your response from one of the following: 1 = Very dissatisfied 2 = Dissatisfied 3 = I can't decide whether I am satisfied or not 4 = Satisfied 5 = Very satisfied On my present job, this is how I feel about: 1. Being able to keep busy all the time. 1 2 3 4 5 2. The chance to work alone on the job. 1 2 3 4 5 3. The chance to do different things from time to time. 1 2 3 4 5 4. The chance to be "somebody" in the community. 1 2 3 4 5 5. The way my boss handles his/her workers. 1 2 3 4 5 6. The competence of my supervisor in making decisions. 1 2 3 4 5 7. Being able to do things that don't go against my conscience. 1 2 3 4 5 8. The way my job provides for steady employment. 1 2 3 4 5 9. The chance to do things for other people. 1 2 3 4 5 10. The chance to tell people what to do. 1 2 3 4 5 11. The chance to do something that makes use of my abilities. 1 2 3 4 5 12. The way company policies are put into practice. 1 2 3 4 5 13. My pay and the amount of work I do. 1 2 3 4 5 14. The chances for advancement on this j ob. 1
2
3
4
5
46
15. The freedom to use my own judgment. 1 2 3 4 5 16. The chance to try my own methods of doing the job. 1 2 3 4 17. The working conditions.
5
1 2 3 4 5 18. The way my coworkers get along with each other. 1 2 3 4 5 19. The praise I get for doing a good job. 1 2 3 4 5 20. The feeling of accomplishment I get from my job. 1
2
3
4
5
47
WHAT'S MY ATTITUDE TOWARD ACHIEVEMENT? Using the following scale, select the answer that best expresses your opinion on each of the 20 questions. Try to minimize the use of answer #4. 1 = I disagree very much 2 = I disagree on the whole 3 = I disagree a little 4 = In between or don't know 5 = I agree a little 6 = I agree on the whole 7 = I agree very much 1. People who are very successful deserve all the rewards they get for their achievements. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2. It's good to see very successful people fail occasionally. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3. Very successful people often get too big for their boots. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4. People who are very successful in what they do are usually friendly and helpful to others. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5. At school it's probably better for students to be near the middle of the class than the very top student. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 6. People shouldn't criticize or knock the very successful. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7. Very successful people who fall from the top usually deserve their fall from grace. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8. Those who are very success ful ought to come down off their pedestals and be like other people. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9. The very successful person should receive public recognition for his/her accomplishments. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10. People who are very successful should be cut down to size. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 11. One should always respect the person at the top. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
48
12. One ought to be sympathetic to very successful people when they experience failure and fall from their very high positions. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 13. Very successful people som etimes need to be brought back a peg or two, even if they have done nothing wrong. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14. Society needs a lot of very high achievers. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 15. People who always do a lot better than others need to learn what it's like to fail. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 16. People who are right at the top usually deserve their high position. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 17. It's very important for society to support and encourage people who are very successful. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 18. People who are very successful get too full of t heir own importance. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 19. Very successful people usually succeed at the expense of other people. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 20. Very successful people who are at the top of their field are usually fun to be with. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
49
WHAT MOTIVATES ME? Indicate how important each of the following is in the job you would like to get. Use the five-point scale for your responses. 1 = Not important 2 = Slightly important 3 = Moderately important 4 = Very important 5 = Extremely importan t 1. Cooperative relations with my coworkers. Select an Option
2. Developing new skills and knowledge at work. Select an Option
3. Good pay for my work. Select an Option
4. Being accepted by others. Select an Option
5. Opportunity for independent thought and action. Select an Option
6. Frequent raises in pay Select an Option
7. Opportunity to develop close friendships at work. Select an Option
8. A sense of self-esteem. Select an Option
9. A complete fringe-benefit program. Select an Option
10. Openness and honesty with my coworkers. Select an Option
11. Opportunities for personal growth and development. Select an Option
12. A sense of security from bodily harm. Select an Option
50
WHAT REWARDS DO I VALUE MOST? Below are ten work-related rewards. For each, identify the number that best describes the value that a particular reward has for you personally. Use the following scale to express your feelings: 1 = No value at all 2 = Slight value 3 = Moderate value 4 = Great value 5 = Extremely great value 1. Good pay 1 2 3 4 2. Prestigious title
5
1 2 3 3. Vacation time
4
5
1 2 3 4. Job security
4
5
1 2 3 5. Recognition
4
5
1 2 3 4 6. Interesting work
5
1 2 3 4 7. Pleasant conditions
5
1 2 3 4 8. Chances to advance
5
1 2 3 4 9. Flexible schedule
5
1 2 3 4 10. Friendly coworkers
5
1
2
3
4
5
51
WHAT'S MY VIEW ON THE NATURE OF PEOPLE? Indicate your agreement or disagreement with each of the eight statements using the following scale: Strongly disagree Disagree undicided Agree Strongly agree 1. The average human being prefers to be directed, wishes to avoid responsibility, and has relatively little ambition. Select an Option
2. Most people can acquire leadership skills regardless of their particular inborn traits and abilities. Select an Option
3. The use of rewards (for example, pay and promotion) and punishment (for example, failure to promote) is the best way to get subordinates to do their work. Select an Option
4. In a work situation, if the subordinate can influence you, you lose some influence over them. Select an Option
5. A good leader gives detailed and complete instructions to subordinates rather than giving them merely general directions and depending on their initiative to work out the details. Select an Option
6. Individual goal setting offers advantages that cannot be obtained by group goal setting, because groups do not set high goals. Select an Option
7. A superior should give subordinates only the information necessary for them to do their immediate tasks. Select an Option
8. The superior's influence over subordinates in an organization is primarily economic. Select an Option
52
HOW SENSITIVE AM I TO EQUITY DIFFERENCES? The four statements ask what you' d like your relationship to be with any organization for which you might work. For each, divide 10 points between the two answers (A and B) by giving the most points to the answer that is most like you and the fewest points to the answer least like you. Yo u can, if you like, give the same number of points to both answers. And you can use zeros if you'd like. Just be sure to use all 10 points on each question. Insert your points next to each letter. In any organization where I might work: 1. It would be more important for me to: A. Help others
0
B. Watch out for my own good
0
2. 3. I would be more concerned about: A. What I received from the organization
0
B. What I contributed to the organization
0
4. 5. The hard work I would do should: A. Benefit the organization
0
B. Benefit me
0
6. 7. My personal philosophy in dealing with the organization would be: A. If you don't look out for yourself, 0 nobody else will B. It's better to give than to receive
0
8. 9. It would be more important for me to: A. Get from the organization
0
B. Give to the organization
0
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WHAT'S MY DECISION -MAKING STYLE? For each of the statements below, select the one altern ative that best describes how you see yourself in your typical work situation. 1. I enjoy jobs that: Select an Option
2. In my job, I look for: Select an Option
3. When faced with solving a problem, I: Select an Option
4. When using information, I prefer: Select an Option
5. I am especially good at: Select an Option
6. When time is important, I: Select an Option
7. I work well with those who are: Select an Option
8. Others consider me: Select an Option
9. My decisions typically are: Select an Option
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HOW INTUITIVE AM I? For each of the following questions , select the response that first appeals to you. 1. When working on a project, I prefer to: a. be told what the problem is, but left free to decide how to solve it. b. get very clear instructions about how to go about solving the problem before I start. 2. When working on a project, I prefer to work with colleagues who are: a. realistic. b. imaginative. 3. I admire people most who are: a. creative. b. careful. 4. The friends I choose tend to be: a. serious and hard working. b. exciting and often emotional. 5. When I ask a colleague for advice on a problem I have, I: a. seldom or never get upset if he/she questions my basic assumptions. b. often get upset if he/she questions my basic assumptions. 6. When I start my day, I usually: a. seldom make or follow a specific plan. b. make a plan first to follow. 7. When working with numbers, I find that I: a. seldom or never make factual errors. b. often make factual errors. 8. I find that I: a. seldom daydream durin g the day and really don't enjoy doing so when I do it. b. frequently daydream during the day and enjoy doing so. 9. When working on a problem I: a. prefer to follow the instructio ns or rules when they are given to me. b. often enjoy circumventing the instructions or rules when they are given to me.
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10. When I try to put something together, I prefer to have: a. step-by-step written instructions on how to assemble the item. b. a picture of how the item is supposed to look once assembled. 11. I find that the person who irritates me the most is the one who appears to be: a. disorganized. b. organized. 12. When an unexpected crisis comes up that I have to deal with, I: a. feel anxious about the situation. b. feel excited by the challenge of the situation.
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HOW DO MY ETHICS RATE? Indicate your level of agreement with these 15 statements using the following scale: 1 = Strongly disagree 2 = Disagree 3 = Neither agree or disagree 4 = Agree 5 = Strongly agree 1. The only moral of business is making money. 1 2 3 4 5 2. A person who is doing well in business does not have to worry about moral problems. 1 2 3 4 5 3. Act according to the law, and you can't go wrong morally. 1 2 3 4 5 4. Ethics in business is basically an adjustment between expectations and the ways people behave. 1 2 3 4 5 5. Business decisions involve a realistic economic attitude and not a moral philosophy. 1 2 3 4 5 6. "Business ethics" is a concept for public relations only. 1 2 3 4 5 7. Competitiveness and profitability are important values. 1 2 3 4 5 8. Conditions of a free economy will best serve the needs of society. Limiting competition can only hurt society and actually violates basic natural laws. 1 2 3 4 5 9. As a consumer, when making an auto insurance claim, I try to get as much as possible regardless of the extent of the damage. 1 2 3 4 5 10. While shopping at the supermarket, it is appropriate to switch price tags on packages. 1 2 3 4 5 11. As an employee, I can take home office supplies; it doesn't hurt anyone. 1
2
3
4
5
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12. I view sick days as vacation days that I deserve. 1 2 3 4 5 13. Employees' wages should be determined according to the laws of supply and demand. 1 2 3 4 5 14. The business world has its own rules. 1 2 3 4 5 15. A good businessperson is a successful businessperson. 1
2
3
4
5
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WHAT'S MY EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE SCORE? Indicate your level of agreement with these ten statements using the following scale: Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree or disagree Agree Strongly agree 1. I am usually aware-from moment to moment -of my feelings as they change. Select an Option
2. I act before I think. Select an Option
3. When I want something, I want it NOW! Select an Option
4. I bounce back quickly from life's setbacks. Select an Option
5. I can pick up subtle social cues that indicate others' needs or wants. Select an Option
6. I'm very good at handling myself in social situations. Select an Option
7. I'm persistent in going after the things I want. Select an Option
8. When people share their problems with me, I'm good at putting myself in their shoes. Select an Option
9. When I'm in a bad mood, I make a strong effort to get out of it. Select an Option
10. I can find common ground and build rapport with people from all walks of life. Select an Option
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WHAT TIME OF DAY AM I MOST PRODUCTIVE? FIndicate the response for each item that best describes you.
1. Considering only your own "feeling best" rhythm, at what time would you get up if you were entirely free to plan your day? a. 5:00-6:30 a.m. b. 6:30-7:45 a.m. c. 7:45-9:45 a.m. d. 9:45-11:00 a.m. e. 11:00 a.m.-12:00 (noon) 2. Considering only your "feeling best" rhythm, at what time would you go to bed if you were entirely free to plan your evening? a. 8:00-9:00 p.m. b. 9:00-10:15 p.m. c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m. d. 12:30-1:45 a.m. e. 1:45-3:00 a.m. 3. Assuming normal ci rcumstances, how easy do you find getting up in the morning? a. Not at all easy b. Slightly easy c. Fairly easy d. Very easy 4. How alert do you feel during the first half hour after you wake up in the morning? a. Not at all alert b. Slightly alert c. Fairly alert d. Very alert 5. During the first half hour after awakening in the morning, how tired do you feel? a. Very tired b. Fairly tired c. Fairly refreshed d. Very refreshed
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6. You have decided to engage in some physical exercise. A friend suggests that you do this one hour, twice a week and the best time for him is 7:00-8:00 a.m. Bearing in mind nothing else but your own "feeling best" rhythm, how do you think you would perform? a. Would be in good form b. Would be in reasonable form c. Would find it difficult d. Would find it very difficult 7. At what time in the evening do you feel tired and, as a result, in need of sleep? a. 8:00-9:00 p.m. b. 9:00-10:15 p.m. c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m. d. 12:30-1:45 a.m. e. 1:45-3:00 a.m. 8. You wish to be at your peak performance for a test which you know is going to be mentally exhausting and will last for two hours. You are entirely free to plan your day, and considering only your own "feeling best" rhythm, which ONE of the four testing time s would you choose? a. 8:00-10:00 a.m. b. 11:00 a.m.-1:00 p.m. c. 3:00-5:00 p.m. d. 7:00-9:00 p.m. 9. One hears about "morning" and "evening" types of people. Which ONE of these types do you consider yourself to be? a. Definitely a morning type b. More a morning than an evening type c. More an evening than a morning type d. Definitely an evening type 10. When would you prefer to rise (provided you have a full day's work-8 hours) if you were totally free to arran ge your time? a. Before 6:30 a.m. b. 6:30-7:30 a.m. c. 7:30-8:30 a.m. d. 8:30 a.m. or later 11. If you always had to rise at 6:00 a.m., what do you think it would
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be like? a. Very difficult and unpleasant b. Rather difficult and unpleasant c. A little unpleasant but no great problem d. Easy and not unpleasant 12. How long does it usually take you before you "recover your senses" in the morning after rising from a night's sleep? a. 0-10 minutes b. 11-20 minutes c. 21-40 minutes d. More than 40 minutes 13. Please indicate the extent you are a morning or evening act ive individual. a. Pronounced morning active (morning alert and evening tired) b. To some extent, morning active c. To some extent, evening act ive d. Pronounced evening active (morning tired and evening alert)
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HOW GOOD AM I AT PERSONAL PLANNING? Indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the 6 statements as they relate to your school and personal life. Use the following scale to record your answers: 1 = Strongly disagree 2 = Disagree 3 = Neither agree or disagree 4 = Agree 5 = Strongly agree 1. I am proactive rather than reactive. 1 2 3 4 5 2. I set aside enough time and resources to study and complete projects. 1 2 3 4 5 3. I am able to budget money to buy the things I really want without going broke. 1 2 3 4 5 4. I have thought through what I want to do in school. 1 2 3 4 5 5. I have a plan for completing my major. 1 2 3 4 5 6. My goals for the future are realistic. 1
2
3
4
5
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AM I LIKELY TO BECOME AN ENTREPRENEUR? Respond to each of the 17 statements: 1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life. Select an Option
2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the world. Select an Option
3. I tend to let others take the initia tive to start new projects. Select an Option
4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive change. Select an Option
5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas. Select an Option
6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into reality. Select an Option
7. If I see something I don't like, I fit it. Select an Option
8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it happen. Select an Option
9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others' opposition. Select an Option
10. I excel at identifying opportunities. Select an Option
11. I am always looking for better ways to do things. Select an Option
12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it happen. Select an Option
13. I love to challenge the status quo. Select an Option
14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on. Select an Option
15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities. Select an Option
16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can. Select an Option
17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can. Select an Option
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WHAT'S MY FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION STYLE? Respond to each of the 45 statements using the following scale: +2 = Strongly agree +1 = Agree 0 = Neither agree or disagree -1 = Disagree -2 = Strongly disagree 1. I am comfortable with all varieties of people. +2 +1 2. I laugh easily.
0
-1
-2
+2 +1 0 -1 -2 3. I readily express admiration for others. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 4. What I say usually leaves an impression on people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 5. I leave people with an impression of me which they definitely tend to remember. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 6. To be friendly, I habitually acknowledge verbally other's contributions. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 7. I have some nervous mannerisms in my speech. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 8. I am a very relaxed communicator. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 9. When I disagree with somebody, I am very quick to challenge them. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 10. I can always repeat back to a person exactly what was meant. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 11. The sound of my voice is very easy to recognize. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 12. I leave a definite impression on people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 13. The rhythm or flow of my speech is sometimes affected by nervousness. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 14. Under pressure I come across as a relaxed speaker. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 15. My eyes reflect exactly what I am feeling when I communicate. +2
+1
0
-1
-2
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16. I dramatize a lot. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 17. Usually, I deliberately react in such a way that people know that I am listening to them. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 18. Usually, I do not tell people much about myself until I get to know them well. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 19. Regularly, I tell jokes, anecdotes, and stories when I communicate. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 20. I tend to constantly gesture when I communicate. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 21. I am an extremely open communicator. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 22. I am vocally a loud communicator. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 23. In arguments I insist upon very precise definitions. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 24. In most social situations I generally speak very frequently. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 25. I like to be strictly accurate when I communicate. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 26. Because I have a loud voice, I can easily break into a conversation. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 27. Often I physically and vocally act out when I want to communicate. +2 +1 0 -1 28. I have an assertive voice.
-2
+2 +1 0 -1 -2 29. I readily reveal personal things about myself. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 30. I am dominant in social situations. +2 +1 0 -1 31. I am very argumentative.
-2
+2 +1 0 -1 -2 32. Once I get wound up in a heated discussion I have a hard time stopping myself. +2
+1
0
-1
-2
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33. I am always an extremely friendly communicator. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 34. I really like to listen very carefully to people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 35. Very often I insist that other people document or present some kind of proof for what they are arguing. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 36. I try to take charge of things when I am with people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 37. It bothers me to drop an argument that is not resolved. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 38. In most social situations I tend to come on strong. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 39. I am very expressive nonverbally in social situations. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 40. The way I say something usually leaves an impression on people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 41. Whenever I communicate, I tend to be very encouraging to people. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 42. I actively use a lot of facial expressions when I communicate. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 43. I very frequently verbally exaggerate to emphasize a point. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 44. I am an extremely attentive communicator. +2 +1 0 -1 -2 45. As a rule, I openly express my feelings and emotions. +2
+1
0
-1
-2
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HOW GOOD AM I AT GIVING FEEDBACK? For each of the following pairs, identify the statement that most closely matches what you normally do when you give feedback to someon e else.
1. a. Describe the behavior b. Evaluate the behavior 2. a. Focus on the feelings that the behavior evokes b. Tell the person what they should be doing differently 3. a. Give specific instances of the behavior b. Generalize 4. a. Deal only with behavior that the person can control b. Sometimes focus on something the person can do nothing about 5. a. Tell the person as soon as possible after the behavior b. Sometimes wait too long 6. a. Focus on the effect the behavior has on me b. Try to figure out why the individual did what he or she did 7. a. Balance negative feedback with positive feedback b. Sometimes focus only on the negative 8. a. Do some soul searching to make sure that the reas on I am giving the feedback is to help the other person or to strengthen our relationship b. Sometimes give feedback to punish, win, or dominate the other person
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AM I A TEAM PLAYER? Use the following scale to identify the extent of your agreement with the 20 statements:
1. Only those who depend on themselves get ahead in life. Select an Option
2. To be superior, a person must stand alone. Select an Option
3. If you want something done right, you've got to do it yourself. Select an Option
4. What happens to me is my own doing. Select an Option
5. In the long run the only person you can count on is yourself. Select an Option
6. Winning is everything. Select an Option
7. I feel that winning is important in both work and games. Select an Option
8. Success is the most important thing in life. Select an Option
9. It annoys me when other people perform better than I do. Select an Option
10. Doing your best isn't enough; it is important to win. Select an Option
11. I prefer to work with others in a group rather t han working alone. Select an Option
12. Given the choice, I would rather do a job where I can work alone rather than doing a job where I have to work with others in a group. Select an Option
13. Working with a group is b etter than working alone. Select an Option
14. People should be made aware that if they are going to be part of a group then they are sometimes going to have to do things they don ?t want to do. Select an Option
15. People who belong to a group should realize that they re not always going to get what they personally want. Select an Option
16. People in a group should realize that they sometimes are going to have to make sacrifices for the sake of the gro up as a whole. Select an Option
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17. People in a group should be willing to make sacrifices for the sake of the groups well?being. Select an Option
18. A group is most productive when its members do what they want to do rather than what the group wants them to do. Select an Option
19. A group is most efficient when its members do what they think is best rather than doing what the group wants them to do. Select an Option
20. A group is most productive when its members follow their own interests and concerns. Select an Option
Penulis
Setyabudi Indartono
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Lahir di Purwokwero, 20 juli 1972. Menyelesaikan studi SD hingga SMA di Banjarnegara Jawa Tengah. Kemudian melanjutkan studi S1 di Teknis Sipil Universitas Gadjahmada dan S2 di Magister Manajemen di Universitas yang sama.
Pernah bekerja di PT Freeport Indonesia sebagai senior fasilitator/trainer, kemudian
Direktur
Umum
dan
Keuangan
Rumah
Sa kit
PKU
Muhammadiyyah Bantul. Menjadi Direktur Cabang LMT Trustco sejak 1998. Kemudian menjadi Staf Pengajar/Dosen Manajeman di Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta. Beberapa tuliusan yang pernah ditulis adalah: Steel Structure Design of PT FI apartments with St aad III Software (1995), Construction Management of PT FI (1997), Justice Party direct Selling (2000), Management Behavior : Mentoring as Solution (2000), Business Research Method: Memory Research (2000),Yogyakarta Islamic Hospital: Managing Performance (2 000), Yayasan Bina Sehat: Organization Change and Developmet as a priority need (2000), Human Resource Management: Sociaty central health Bantul Yogyakarta (2000),Organization Design of Region Directorate of Justice Party of Yogyakarta (2000), PT KPI Tembagapura Compensation applications (2000), SWOT (2003), Advance SWOT (2003), Modul TFT Trustco (2004), Leadership (2005), Training For Beginer (2005), Smart Trainer (2005), Strategic trainer (2005), Decition Making (UNY, 2005), Operation Research (UNY, 2004) , QSB+ (UNY, 2006), Marketing Advance (UNY, 2005), Lembaga Keuangan (UNY, 2005), Tinggal dengan seorang Istri, dr. Yayuk Soraya, dan tiga anak laki lakinya, Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin (1999), Rofiq Wafi’ Muhammad (2001), dan Muhammad Kaisan Haedar (2004) di Jl Arwana No 7 Minomartani. Bisa
dihubungi
di
08157934565,
dan
[email protected],
[email protected]
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