The Quantum Opportunity Program Demonstration: Initial Post ...

4 downloads 24778 Views 1MB Size Report
members of the Mathematica Policy Research staff also contributed to this report. .... Ford Foundation (Ford) operated a demonstration of the Quantum Opportunity Program ..... more intensive case management and mentoring in four ways: 1.
&RQWUDFW1R  . 0355HIHUHQFH1R  

 









 7KH4XDQWXP 2SSRUWXQLW\3URJUDP 'HPRQVWUDWLRQ  ,QLWLDO3RVW,QWHUYHQWLRQ ,PSDFWV 

  -XQH  

$OOHQ6FKLUP 1XULD5RGULJXH]3ODQDV   

            6XEPLWWHGWR  86'HSDUWPHQWRI/DERU (PSOR\PHQWDQG7UDLQLQJ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ &RQVWLWXWLRQ$YHQXH1: 5RRP1 :DVKLQJWRQ'&   

6XEPLWWHGE\  0DWKHPDWLFD3ROLF\5HVHDUFK,QF 0DU\ODQG$YHQXH6: 6XLWH :DVKLQJWRQ'&    

',6&/$,0(5  7KLV UHSRUW ZDV SUHSDUHG XQGHU &RQWUDFW 1R . IURP WKH 86 'HSDUWPHQWRI/DERU7KHYLHZVH[SUHVVHGKHUHLQGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHIOHFWWKHSROLFLHVRU RSLQLRQVRIWKH86'HSDUWPHQWRI/DERU

$&.12:/('*0(176 7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR DFNQRZOHGJH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI 'DYLG /DK (LOHHQ 3HGHUVRQ 'DQLHO 5\DQ DQG -DPHV :RRGV RI WKH 86 'HSDUWPHQW RI /DERU  6HYHUDO PHPEHUV RI WKH 0DWKHPDWLFD 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK VWDII DOVR FRQWULEXWHG WR WKLV UHSRUW  -XOLH = $10/hr Has a full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr

65 45 43 22 31 16 13

72 56 45 25 38 20 15

-7* -11*** -2 -2 -8** -4 -2

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or a job In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job with health insurance In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job that pays >= $10/hr In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job that pays >= $10/hr In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr

77 65 61 46

78 68 59 44

-1 -4 3 2

53

54

-1

42

41

2

40

36

4

Outcome

Impact (percentage points)



SOURCE:

Telephone survey.

NOTE:

Each impact was derived by subtracting the control group mean from the QOP group mean prior to rounding those means; thus, an impact might not equal the difference between the rounded means that are displayed. Estimates were obtained using weights to adjust for differences between respondents and nonrespondents in baseline characteristics, response rates to the first telephone survey, and outcomes measured in the in-person and first telephone surveys. The evaluation sample had 580 QOP enrollees and 489 controls.

* ** ***

Estimate significantly different from zero at the 90% confidence level, two-tailed test Estimate significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level, two-tailed test Estimate significantly different from zero at the 99% confidence level, two-tailed test





,03$&7621423·66(&21'$5KWWSZZZFHQVXVJRYSRSXODWLRQZZZVRFGHPRVFKRRO FSVKWPO@$FFHVVHG0D\D 86 &HQVXV %XUHDX  >KWWSZZZFHQVXVJRYSRSXODWLRQZZZVRFGHPRHGXFDWLRQSSO KWPO@$FFHVVHG0D\E 86 'HSDUWPHQW RI (GXFDWLRQ  ´7KH &RQGLWLRQ RI (GXFDWLRQ µ  1&(6  :DVKLQJWRQ'&86'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ 86 'HSDUWPHQW RI -XVWLFH  ´*XLGH IRU ,PSOHPHQWLQJ WKH &RPSUHKHQVLYH 6WUDWHJ\ IRU 6HULRXV9LROHQWDQG&KURQLF-XYHQLOH2IIHQGHUVµ:DVKLQJWRQ'&86'HSDUWPHQW RI-XVWLFH 





APPENDIX A OBTAINING AN EVALUATION SAMPLE AND CONDUCTING RANDOM ASSIGNMENT





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·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

'(9(/23,1*/,6762)(/,*,%/(6  $VVKRZQLQWKHPRGHO663WKHJHQHULFLQVWUXFWLRQWRHDFKVLWHZDVDVIROORZV  (DFKVFKRROVKRXOGFRPSLOHDOLVWRIVWXGHQWVZKRKDYHHQWHUHGWKHWKJUDGHIRUWKHILUVW WLPHLQWKHFXUUHQWDFDGHPLF\HDUDQGVHQGWKHOLVWWR035)RUHYHU\VWXGHQWWKH OLVWVKRXOGLQFOXGHDWOHDVWWZRSLHFHVRILGHQWLI\LQJLQIRUPDWLRQDQGWKHVWXGHQWV·WK JUDGH*3$ )XOILOOPHQWRIWKLVLQVWUXFWLRQFRPSOHWHGWKHVLWH·VUHVSRQVLELOLW\7KHQ  )RU HDFK VFKRRO 035 ZLOO UDQN VWXGHQWV³IURP KLJKHVW WR ORZHVW³DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU *3$V IURP WKH WK JUDGH  7KH VWXGHQWV LQ WKH ERWWRP WZRWKLUGV RI WKH *3$ GLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHLUVFKRRODUHHOLJLEOH $OWKRXJK VHHPLQJO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG WKHVH ILUVW WZR VWHSV LQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ WKH HYDOXDWLRQGHVLJQZHUHSUREDEO\WKHPRVWGLIILFXOW7KH\PLJKWDOVRSURYHWREHDPRQJWKH PRUH GLIILFXOW VWHSV LQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ DQ RQJRLQJ 423 SURJUDP  7KHUH ZHUH WZR PDLQ SUREOHPV LQ GHYHORSLQJ DQ DFFXUDWH OLVW RI HOLJLEOHV IRU D VFKRRO   GHWHUPLQLQJ FXUUHQW HQUROOPHQWDQG  FDOFXODWLQJ*3$V 

$



EXHIBIT A.1 4XDQWXP2SSRUWXQLW\3URJUDP6WXGHQW6HOHFWLRQ3ODQ

  This plan outlines the steps for selecting students for the Quantum Opportunity Program (Quantum). For each step, we have listed the responsibilities of local Quantum staff (including staff of the participating high schools) and the responsibilities of Mathematica Policy Research (MPR) staff.   6XEPLWWLQJ/LVWVRI6WXGHQWV  4XDQWXP  (DFK VFKRRO VKRXOG FRPSLOH D OLVW RI VWXGHQWV ZKR KDYH HQWHUHG WKH WK JUDGH IRUWKHILUVWWLPHLQWKHFXUUHQWDFDGHPLF\HDUDQGVHQGWKHOLVWWR 035)RUHYHU\ VWXGHQW WKH OLVW VKRXOG LQFOXGH DW OHDVW WZR SLHFHV RI LGHQWLI\LQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG WKH VWXGHQW·VWKJUDGH*3$   ,GHQWLI\LQJ(OLJLEOH6WXGHQWV  035)RUHDFKVFKRRO035ZLOOUDQNVWXGHQWV³IURPKLJKHVWWRORZHVW³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·V VFKRRO D EURFKXUH GHVFULELQJ WKH 4XDQWXP SURJUDP DQG WKH 4XDQWXPVWXG\DFRQVHQWIRUPVHHNLQJSDUHQWDOSHUPLVVLRQIRUWKHVWXGHQWWRSDUWLFLSDWHLQ WKH VWXG\ DQG D ORFDWRU IRUP  4XDQWXP VWDII VKRXOG PDNH FRSLHV RI WKH FRYHU OHWWHU RQ VFKRROOHWWHUKHDG DQGFRSLHVRIWKHFRQVHQWDQGORFDWRUIRUPVDQGDVVHPEOHWKHSDFNHWV  035035ZLOOGUDIWDOOPDWHULDOVIRUWKH4XDQWXPLQIRUPDWLRQDQGFRQVHQWSDFNHW 035ZLOODOVRPDNHFRSLHVRIWKHEURFKXUHVDQGVHQGWKHVHWR4XDQWXPVWDII 

$

EXHIBIT A.1 (continued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

$

'HWHUPLQLQJ&XUUHQW(QUROOPHQW  $VDUXOHPRVW423VFKRROVGLGQRWNQRZSUHFLVHO\ZKLFKVWXGHQWVZHUHHQUROOHGLQ WKHQLQWKJUDGH7KHH[SODQDWLRQZDVVSRUDGLFDWWHQGDQFHE\PDQ\VWXGHQWVFRPELQHGZLWK KLJK WXUQRYHU ERWK IURP \HDU WR \HDU DQG ZLWKLQ D \HDU DV VWXGHQWV·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´FDWHJRULFDOO\ LQHOLJLEOHµ VWXGHQWV³VWXGHQWVUHSHDWLQJWKHQLQWKJUDGHDQGGLVDEOHGVWXGHQWVIRUZKRP423ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ LQDSSURSULDWH LQ WKH VFKRRO·V MXGJPHQW³KDG WR EH GURSSHG IURP WKH OLVW $OWKRXJK D FRXSOH RI VFKRROV QHJOHFWHG WR GURS D FDWHJRU\ RI LQHOLJLEOH VWXGHQWV LQ D ILUVW DWWHPSWWRGHYHORSDOLVWRIHOLJLEOHVQRQHRIWKHVFKRROVLQWKHGHPRQVWUDWLRQDSSHDUHGWR KDYHDQ\VLJQLILFDQWGLIILFXOWLHVLQLGHQWLI\LQJFDWHJRULFDOO\LQHOLJLEOHVWXGHQWV 

(YHQLIILUVWGD\RIVFKRROOLVWVKDGEHHQPRUHUHOLDEOHVFKRROVJHQHUDOO\ZHUHQRWSUHSDUHGWRSURGXFH WKHPEHFDXVHGRLQJVRZRXOGKDYHLQWHUIHUHGZLWKUHJXODUVFKRRODFWLYLWLHV

 ,I DQ RQJRLQJ 423 SURJUDP ZHUH WR VWDUW GHOLYHULQJ VHUYLFHV YHU\ QHDU WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH VFKRRO \HDUWKHSURSRUWLRQRIVWXGHQWVVHOHFWHGIRU423ZKRWXUQHGRXWWRKDYHWUDQVIHUUHGWRRWKHUVFKRROVZRXOG EH PXFK KLJKHU WKDQ LQ WKLV GHPRQVWUDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK VHUYLFH GHOLYHU\ VWDUWHG DOPRVW KDOI ZD\ WKURXJK QLQWK JUDGH$OVRPDQ\ LIQRWPRVW VWXGHQWVQHZWRWKHVFKRROGLVWULFWRUFRPLQJIURPPLGGOHVFKRROVZLWKLQWKH GLVWULFW WKDW DUH QRW WUDGLWLRQDOO\ IHHGHU VFKRROV IRU WKH 423 KLJK VFKRRO ZRXOG HIIHFWLYHO\ EH LQHOLJLEOH IRU 423$VZHGLVFXVVODWHUKRZHYHUHYHQZKHQOLVWVDUHFRQVWUXFWHGVHYHUDOZHHNVLQWRWKHVFKRRO\HDUPDQ\ VWXGHQWVQHZWRDGLVWULFWDUHLQHOLJLEOHIRU423EHFDXVHQRJUDGHVDUHDYDLODEOHIRUWKHP 

$

&DOFXODWLQJ*3$V  $IWHU GHYHORSLQJ D OLVW RI FXUUHQWO\ HQUROOHG QLQWK JUDGHUV DQG GURSSLQJ IURP WKH OLVW FDWHJRULFDOO\ LQHOLJLEOH VWXGHQWV D VFKRRO DWWHPSWHG WR FDOFXODWH DQ HLJKWKJUDGH *3$ IRU HDFKUHPDLQLQJVWXGHQWRQWKHOLVW,QLWLDOFRQYHUVDWLRQVZLWKVFKRROVWDIIUHYHDOHGFRQIXVLRQ DERXWZKDWZRXOGFRQVWLWXWHDQDFFHSWDEOH*3$6RPHWKRXJKWWKDW*3$PHDQVDFUHGLW ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH RQ D IRXUSRLQW VFDOH  :H ZHUH WROG IRU H[DPSOH WKDW LW ZRXOG QRW EH SRVVLEOHWRREWDLQ*3$VIRURQHVFKRROEHFDXVHRQO\´JUDGHDYHUDJHVµ RQDSRLQWVFDOH  ZHUH DYDLODEOH  6XFK FRQIXVLRQ ZDV HDVLO\ HOLPLQDWHG E\ GLVWULEXWLQJ D EULHI PHPRUDQGXP GLVFXVVLQJWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI*3$VDQGRWKHULVVXHVSHUWDLQLQJWRHOLJLELOLW\  $OWKRXJK LW PLJKW EH PRUH VHULRXV LI 423 ZHUH D SHUPDQHQW UDWKHU WKDQ D GHPRQVWUDWLRQ SURJUDP DQRWKHU PLQRU SUREOHP ZDV WKDW WZR VFKRROV GLG QRW KDYH WKH UHVRXUFHV WR FDOFXODWH *3$V  )RU RQH VFKRRO 423 VWDII FDOFXODWHG *3$V IURP VWXGHQWV·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·V SDSHU ILOHV IRU DQ HLJKWKJUDGH WUDQVFULSW  ,I D WUDQVFULSW ZHUH DYDLODEOH 423 VWDII FDOFXODWHG D *3$ E\ KDQG 0RUH RIWHQ WKDQ QRW KRZHYHU QR WUDQVFULSWDSSHDUHGLQDVWXGHQW·VILOH  )RURQH423VFKRROQRJUDGHV ZHUHDYDLODEOH LQ WKHGLVWULFW·VGDWDEDVH IRU QHDUO\ SHUFHQW RI VWXGHQWV  423 VWDII ZHUH DEOH WR ORFDWH DQHLJKWKJUDGH WUDQVFULSW IRU RQO\  SHUFHQWRIWKRVHVWXGHQWV6RRYHUDOO*3$VFRXOGEHFDOFXODWHGIRUMXVWSHUFHQWRIWKH VFKRRO·VFDWHJRULFDOO\HOLJLEOHVWXGHQWV 

6RPHVFKRROVWDIIZHUHDOVRFRQIXVHGDERXWKRZWRUDQNVWXGHQWVEDVHGRQJUDGHV2QHVFKRROLQLWLDOO\ KDG D VHSDUDWH UDQNLQJ IRU HDFK PLGGOH VFKRRO WKDW IHG VWXGHQWV WR WKH KLJK VFKRRO  :H HOLPLQDWHG WKH FRQIXVLRQ E\ KDYLQJ HDFK 423 VFKRRO VHQG XV D OLVW ZLWK QDPHV DQG JUDGHV IRU DOO FDWHJRULFDOO\ HOLJLEOH VWXGHQWV  7KHQ ZH UDQNHG VWXGHQWV DQG LGHQWLILHG WKH IXOO\  HOLJLEOH VWXGHQWV WKDW LV WKH VWXGHQWV LQ WKH ERWWRPWZRWKLUGVRIWKHJUDGHGLVWULEXWLRQ 

)RUDQRWKHUVFKRRO423VWDIIHQWHUHG*3$VIURPVWXGHQWV·WUDQVFULSWVLQWRDGDWDEDVH



 7KH PDLQ GLIILFXOW\ LQ WKLV FDVH ZDV PDNLQJ VXUH WKDW WKH *3$ ZDV FRPSDUDEOH WR RWKHU VWXGHQWV· *3$V³WKDWLWZDVIRUH[DPSOHRQWKHVDPHVFDOH 

,QWZRRWKHUVFKRROV*3$VFRXOGEHFDOFXODWHGIRUDQGSHUFHQWRIFDWHJRULFDOO\HOLJLEOHVWXGHQWV )RUWKHILUVWVFKRRO423VWDIIKDGWRWUDFNGRZQ*3$VIRUDERXWRQHLQVL[VWXGHQWVIRUZKRP*3$VFRXOG EHFDOFXODWHG)RUWKHRWKHUVFKRROLWZDVWZRLQILYH 

$

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hr

96.9

97.9

97.3

Has full time job that pays >= $10/hr

97.8

98.5

98.1

Has a full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr

98.2

97.9

98.1

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or a job

100.0

99.4

99.7

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job

99.6

99.1

99.4

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job with health insurance

98.7

97.6

98.2

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job that pays >= $10/hr

98.0

98.5

98.2

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance

98.7

97.9

98.4

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job that pays >= $10/hr

98.7

99.1

98.9

In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr

99.1

98.2

98.7

SOURCE:

Telephone surveys and transcripts for the two outcomes pertaining to high school completion. Second telephone survey for all other outcomes.

&

 Table C.6. Item Response Rates for Outcomes Pertaining to Risky Behaviors and Family Life (Percentages) QOP Group

Outcome

Control Group

Total Sample

Binge drinking in past month

99.6

98.8

99.2

Binge drinking on 8 or more days in past month

99.6

98.8

99.2

Used an illegal drug in past month

99.8

99.4

99.6

Committed a crime in past 3 months

99.8

99.4

99.6

Arrested or charged in past 3 months

99.6

99.4

99.5

Had first child before age 18

98.9

98.5

98.7

Currently living with natural children, but no spouse

99.1

99.1

99.1

Have children with whom not currently living

98.9

99.1

99.0

Currently receiving welfare

98.5

99.1

98.7

Currently receiving food stamps

98.0

98.8

98.4

Currently receiving welfare or food stamps

97.8

98.8

98.2

SOURCE: Second telephone survey.



&



$33(1',;'  287&20(6$1'68%*52836









7KLV DSSHQGL[ GHVFULEHV WKH RXWFRPHV DQG VXEJURXSV RI HQUROOHHV IRU ZKLFK ZH HVWLPDWHGLPSDFWV 

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

 $OO RWKHU RXWFRPHV FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKLV UHSRUW ZHUH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ GDWD IURP WKH VHFRQG WHOHSKRQH VXUYH\RQO\ 

'

5LVN\%HKDYLRUV 6XEVWDQFH$EXVH´%LQJHµGULQNLQJPHDQVGULQNLQJILYHRUPRUHGULQNVLQDURZ,Q WKHPDLQWH[WRIWKLVUHSRUWELQJHGULQNLQJLVGHVFULEHGDV´IUHTXHQWµLILWRFFXUVRQDWOHDVW RXWRIWKHSDVWGD\V7KHRXWFRPH´XVHGDQ\GUXJLQWKHSDVWGD\VµLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKH UHVSRQGHQWUHSRUWHGXVLQJDWOHDVWRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLOOHJDOGUXJVRUW\SHVRILOOHJDOGUXJV PDULMXDQD RU KDVKLVK FRFDLQH RU FUDFN FRFDLQH KHURLQ RSLXP RU PHWKDGRQH VWLPXODQWV GHSUHVVDQWVLQKDODQWVRUKDOOXFLQRJHQV%HFDXVHWKHUDWHVDWZKLFKVDPSOHPHPEHUVZHUH XVLQJPRVWRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOGUXJVZHUHORZDQGWKHHYDOXDWLRQVDPSOHVIRUVFKRROVDQGVLWHV ZHUH VPDOO LPSDFWV IRU LQGLYLGXDO GUXJV FRXOG QRW EH UHOLDEO\ HVWLPDWHG DQG DUH QRW SUHVHQWHG  &ULPLQDO $FWLYLW\  7KH RXWFRPH ´FRPPLWWHG DQ\ FULPH LQ WKH SDVW  PRQWKVµ LQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHUHVSRQGHQWUHSRUWHGFRPPLWWLQJDWOHDVWRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJVL[FULPHV   VROG LOOHJDO GUXJV   VWROH D PRWRU YHKLFOH   VWROH VRPHWKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ D PRWRU YHKLFOH   DWWDFNHG DQG VHULRXVO\ KXUW RU NLOOHG VRPHRQH   FDUULHG D KDQG JXQ DQG   FRPPLWWHGDVH[XDODVVDXOW%HFDXVHWKHUDWHVDWZKLFKVDPSOHPHPEHUVZHUHFRPPLWWLQJ PRVWRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOFULPHVZHUHORZDQGWKHHYDOXDWLRQVDPSOHVIRUVFKRROVDQGVLWHVZHUH VPDOOLPSDFWVIRULQGLYLGXDOFULPHVFRXOGQRWEHUHOLDEO\HVWLPDWHGDQGDUHQRWSUHVHQWHG 

68%*52836  :H SUHVHQW LPSDFWV IRU VXEJURXSV GHILQHG E\ EDVHOLQH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV³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

'

Table D.1. Outcomes Category High School Completion a

Received HS diploma a Received HS diploma or GED Postsecondary Attainment Ever attended or currently attending a 4-year college Completed at least 1 quarter at a 4-year college Completed at least 1 year at a 4-year college Completed at least 2 years at a 4-year college Ever attended or currently attending a 2 or 4-year college Completed at least 1 quarter at a 2 or 4-year college Completed at least 1 year at a 2 or 4-year college Completed at least 2 years at a 2 or 4-year college

'

Ever in college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, or military Completed 2 years of college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, or military Current Activities In a 4-year college In a 2 or 4-year college In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, or military Has a job Works at least 35hrs/week at main job, i.e., has a full time job Has a job with health insurance Has a job that pays >= $10/hr Has a full time job with health insurance Has full time job that pays >= $10/hr Has a full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or a job In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job with health insurance In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or job that pays >= $10/hr In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job that pays >= $10/hr



Table D-1 (continued) Category In college, voc/tech school, apprenticeship, military, or full time job with health insurance that pays >= $10/hr Risky Behaviors and Family Life a

Binge drinking in past month a Binge drinking on 8 or more days in past month Used an illegal drug in past month a Committed a crime in past 3 months Arrested or charged in past 3 months Had first child before age 18 Currently living with natural children, but no spouse Have children with whom not currently living Currently receiving welfare Currently receiving food stamps Currently receiving welfare or food stamps

NOTE:

'

a

Except for the high school completion outcomes, we measured all outcomes using data from the second telephone survey. We measured the high school completion outcomes using data from the first and second telephone surveys and high school transcripts, as described in Appendix F.

A more detailed explanation of how this outcome was measured can be found in the text of the appendix.



 Table D.2. Subgroups Subgroup

Sample Size

Sex Males Females

576 493

Age when entered ninth grade 14 or younger Over 14

706 363

Rank in baseline grade distribution (based on eighth-grade GPA) In the bottom third of the grade distribution In the middle third of the grade distribution In the top third of the grade distribution

380 359 330

    

'





$33(1',;(  :(,*+7,1*,03$&7(67,0$7,21$1'9$5,$1&((67,0$7,21









:(,*+7,1*72$'-867)251215(63216(  :H GHYHORSHG SHUVRQOHYHO ZHLJKWV WR DGMXVW IRU WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI XQLW QRQUHVSRQVH  8QLW QRQUHVSRQVH RFFXUUHG IRU H[DPSOH ZKHQ D VDPSOH PHPEHU GLG QRW UHVSRQGDWDOOWRWKHVHFRQGWHOHSKRQHVXUYH\WKDWLVWKHVDPSOHPHPEHUGLGQRWDQVZHUDQ\ TXHVWLRQV RQ WKH VXUYH\  $ERXW  SHUFHQW RI VDPSOH PHPEHUV GLG QRW UHVSRQG WR WKH VHFRQGWHOHSKRQHVXUYH\7KHXQLWQRQUHVSRQVHUDWHIRUWKHFRQWUROJURXSZDVKLJKHUWKDQ WKH RYHUDOO UDWH ZKLOH WKH XQLW QRQUHVSRQVH UDWH IRU 423 HQUROOHHV ZDV ORZHU WKDQ WKH RYHUDOO UDWH  7KH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH XQLW QRQUHVSRQVH UDWHV IRU WKH WZR JURXSV ZDV DERXWWHQSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWV  'LIIHUHQFHVLQEDVHOLQHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVEHWZHHQUHVSRQGHQWVDQGQRQUHVSRQGHQWVFRXOG SRWHQWLDOO\ FDXVH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH RXWFRPHV RI UHVSRQGHQWV DQG WKRVH RI QRQUHVSRQGHQWV,QVXFKDFLUFXPVWDQFHDQLPSDFWHVWLPDWHGXVLQJGDWDIURPUHVSRQGHQWV RQO\ VLQFHWKHUHDUHQRRXWFRPHGDWDIURPQRQUHVSRQGHQWV ZRXOGEHDELDVHGHVWLPDWHRI WKH LPSDFW WKDW ZH VHHN ZKLFK LV WKH LPSDFW RQ DOO VDPSOH PHPEHUV UHVSRQGHQWV DQG QRQUHVSRQGHQWV7KHVL]HRIWKHELDVLVQRWHVWLPDEOH  7R DGMXVW IRU WKH HIIHFWV RI QRQUHVSRQVH DQG UHGXFH SRWHQWLDO QRQUHVSRQVH ELDV ZH DVVLJQHGZHLJKWVWRUHVSRQGHQWV:HDVVLJQHGODUJHUZHLJKWVWRWKHUHVSRQGHQWVZKRPRUH FORVHO\ UHVHPEOHG WKH QRQUHVSRQGHQWV LQ WHUPV RI EDVHOLQH DQG RWKHU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG VPDOOHU ZHLJKWV WR WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR OHVV FORVHO\ UHVHPEOHG WKH QRQUHVSRQGHQWV $OWKRXJK GLIIHUHQWLDO ZHLJKWLQJ RI UHVSRQGHQWV WHQGHG WR LQFUHDVH WKH YDULDQFHV RI LPSDFW HVWLPDWHV E\PHDVXUDEOHDPRXQWV ZHDFFHSWHGVPDOOLQFUHDVHVLQYDULDQFHVWRHQKDQFHRXU FRQILGHQFHWKDWZHFRQWUROOHGQRQUHVSRQVHELDVWRWKHH[WHQWSRVVLEOH  :HLJKWV  :HGHULYHGWKUHHGLIIHUHQWVHWVRIZHLJKWVWRDGMXVWIRUQRQUHVSRQVH  ZHLJKWVIRUWKH RXWFRPHPHDVXULQJUHFHLSWRIDKLJKVFKRROGLSORPD  ZHLJKWVIRUWKHRXWFRPHPHDVXULQJ UHFHLSWRIDKLJKVFKRROGLSORPDRU*('DQG  ZHLJKWVIRUDOORIWKHRWKHURXWFRPHV  7RGHULYHGWKHWKLUGVHWRIZHLJKWVZHHVWLPDWHGWZRVHSDUDWHORJLWUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOV WR SUHGLFW WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW HDFK VDPSOH PHPEHU UHVSRQGHG WR WKH VHFRQG WHOHSKRQH VXUYH\³RQHIRUWKH423JURXSDQGRQHIRUWKHFRQWUROJURXS7RGHULYHWKHRWKHUWZR VHWVRIZHLJKWVZHUHSHDWHGWKLVSURFHVVGHILQLQJDVDPSOHPHPEHUDVD´UHVSRQGHQWµLIZH ZHUH DEOHWRDVFHUWDLQZKHWKHUWKHVDPSOHPHPEHUUHFHLYHGDGLSORPD IRUWKHILUVW VHWRI ZHLJKWV  RU ZKHWKHU KH RU VKH UHFHLYHG D GLSORPD RU D *(' IRU WKH VHFRQG VHW RI  ,Q FRQWUDVW LWHP QRQUHVSRQVH RFFXUUHG ZKHQ D VDPSOH PHPEHU GLG QRW SURYLGH D YDOLGDQVZHU WR D TXHVWLRQ WKDW ZDV DVNHG HYHQ WKRXJK KH RU VKH DQVZHUHG RWKHU TXHVWLRQV RQ WKH VXUYH\  $V VKRZQ LQ $SSHQGL[&LWHPQRQUHVSRQVHUDWHVZHUHW\SLFDOO\YHU\ORZ 

$VGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOEHORZZHHYDOXDWHGUHVHPEODQFHXVLQJUHVSRQVHSURSHQVLW\VFRUHV



(

ZHLJKWV  7KHQ ZH HVWLPDWHG WKH LPSDFW RQ DQ RXWFRPH XVLQJ WKH DSSURSULDWH VHW RI ZHLJKWV  :HGHULYHGHDFKVHWRIZHLJKWVE\FDUU\LQJRXWWKHIROORZLQJIRXUVWHSV   :H HVWLPDWHG D ´EHVWµ ORJLW PRGHO IRU SUHGLFWLQJ UHVSRQVH SURSHQVLW\ VFRUHV SUREDELOLWLHV  VHSDUDWHO\ IRU 423 DQG FRQWURO JURXS PHPEHUV 7KH EHVW UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO LQFOXGHG  SUHGLFWRUV WKDW ZH ´IRUFHGµ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·VKLJKVFKRROFRPSOHWLRQVWDWXV EDVHGSULPDULO\RQWKDWSHUVRQ·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