Sustainable flood risk assessment and management: comparative case studies between Hong Kong and the United Kingdom FKS Chan*, AT McDonald*& G Mitchell* * School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS29JT, United Kingdom Correspondence E-mail:
[email protected]; Tel: (+44 113 343 3336) & Fax: (+44 113 343 3308)
Abstract Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of flooding in many parts of the world due to changes in the hydro-climatic regime and sea level rise. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a mega-deltaic region, over 30 million people will be at increased risk from coastal and urban flooding. This research uses comparative case studies of flood management experiences in the UK, Hong Kong and Shenzhen to better understand barriers and constraints on sustainable flood management, and to contribute to the development of a long term sustainable flood risk assessment strategy for the PRD. Keywords Climate change; sea-level rises; hydro-climatic regime; sustainable flood management and s ustainable flood risk assessment strategy
Rationale and Background Coastal cities in Asia are under threat from sea level rise and urbanisation in coastal and low lying flood plains (McGranahan, Balk and Anderson 2007).The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the sea level will rise about 0.65 – 1.3m globally by 2100 (Meehl et al. 2007). As a result many extremely populous coastal cities in Asia are expected to be at risk from flooding in deltaic areas such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Coastal cities in the PRD, including Hong Kong experience increasing flood risk from: (1) storm surge; (2) intense precipitation from typhoons, and (3) inland pluvial flooding, all associated with climate change (Lee, Wong and Woo 2010). The PRD is on its way to becoming a mega-region (Woodroffe 2010), this urban growth has placed Hong Kong and Guangzhou in the top ten of global coastal cities at risk from climate change (Nicholls et al. 2008). Flood management strategies must cope with these pressures, yet it is evident that in the PRD, appraisal strategies informing such strategies are relatively undeveloped, and neglect to address a broader range of concerns compatible with sustainable development. The research therefore addresses the issue of appraisal in flood risk management, with a view to identifying barriers to, and opportunities for, more sustainable flood management strategies. Research aims and objectives The aim of this research is to develop an understanding of the barriers and constraints to sustainable flood risk management, through an examination of flood appraisal process and practice in two contrasting regions. The outputs of the research will be both generic, in terms of guidance on how to conduct flood risk appraisal, and specific with respect to the UK and PRD case. The principal objectives are to:
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(a) Develop a theoretical appraisal framework for sustainable flood risk assessment (SFRA) based on a review of the international literature in appraisal, flood management and sustainable development; (b) Benchmark flood risk appraisal process and practice for the PRD (Hong Kong and Shenzhen) and UK case studies against the template. Prior field work has identified social (e.g. social justice), ecological (e.g. river restoration) and economic (e.g. flood mapping and flood insurance) aspects as areas deserving particular analysis; (c) Through stakeholder dialogue (decision makers, planners, politicians, scholars and public) and secondary source analysis, understand how current process and practice have evolved, and what the principal constraints on a more SFRA process are. Research Method An initial scoping study has been performed, including a literature review to formulate an idealised SFRM template and discussions with the relevant stakeholders (i.e. Drainage Service Department in Hong Kong and Environment Agency in the UK). Multiple case studies are being used to observe the differences of current flood management practices in similar contexts (Table.1), e.g. Shenzhen River and Humber Estuary are both located in a high-value habitat area; Humber Estuary and Tai O town are under similar flood risk from storm surge. Semi-structure interviews will be conducted to gather the views of stakeholders in all case study sites, the details including face-to-face interviews with key informants who were the decision makers on FRA practice and could provide a general overview of its strategy. This method is to allow stakeholders elaborating on their view and collect new information that has not been found before (Clifford and Valentine 2003). An extensive secondary source (i.e. governmental publications and literatures) will be analysed, specifically on the flood risk appraisal process; to synchronize the information to be provided after the interviews. Site locations There are four different sites with similar characteristics chosen for this research: Shenzhen River in the PRD, Tai O town in Hong Kong; Leeds Aire River and Humber Estuary in the UK (Table 1). Table 1 Study sites description and common factors on flood risk management Location Characteristics
Shenzhen River Transboundary River
Humber Estuary Estuarial coastal area
Tai O Local fisherman town
Leeds River Aire Inland River
Flood problem
Inland flood
Storm surge
Storm surge
Inland flood
Mitigation works
Hard Engineering
Hard Engineering
Ecological and cultural features
Ramsar wetland, main spot for the migration birds
No mitigation works Leeds city centre with high economic and historic value
Future development
Planning study is in progress
High ecological values with birds and habitats and protected by the Habitat Regulations Avoid any new development in the floodplain
No mitigation works Indigenous fisherman town with high cultural and historic value Revitalization development plan is under studied
Leeds Flood Alleviation Scheme is under studied
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Development in the PRD The PRD economy boomed in 1978 due to the “open door and economic reform policy”, and the Chinese Government aimed to establish the region as a manufacturing centre (Yeung 2010). It thus created a massive urban migration from other provinces in China towards the PRD region to meet the demand for labour. The population in the region has grown enormously over the last two decades. From 1978 to 2007, the total permanent resident population in Guangdong province increased from 50 to 94 million, a growth rate of more than 86%(Guangdong Province Housing & Urban – Rural Department 2011). The data, however, excludes the non-permanent resident population of more than 24 million in 2004, and the total population in the province has reached 120 million(Yeung 2006). Similarly, the PRD cities have rapidly expanded from 0.91 to 54.6 million since 1978. The population of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ) expanded from about 0.3 million in 1980 to about 9 million in 2009, a growth of more than 30 fold (Yeung 2009). United Nations predicts big cities, like Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, in the PRD will merge forming a mega-region, and the population will grow further to reach 120 million by 2050s (UN-HABITAT 2008). In light of the rapid population and economic growth, the transformation of the economy in the PRD is reflected in the changed per cent contribution of primary, secondary and tertiary activities to GDP from 25.8: 45.3: 28.9 in 1980 to 2.4: 50.3: 47.3 in 2008 (Yeung 2010). The region is dominated by manufacturing of high tech products, i.e. IT, electronics, electrical appliances, mobile phones, personal computers and even automobiles; and tertiary industry, i.e. finance, transport, tourism and public administration. Agricultural production, activities including fish farming, rice, vegetables and fruit plantations have significantly diminished since the economic reforms. From 1982 to 2000, the surface area of cropland in the PRD was dramatically reduced from 9,509 km2 to 6,351 km2 (Ouyang, Zhu and Kuang 2006). A large quantity of agricultural land was converted to industrial, commercial and residential areas, as the urban area in the PRD expanded more than 3000 km2 over the last three decades. Seto et al. (2002) found similar results and indicate that urban areas increased by more than three times between 1988 to 1996. Approximately 1905km2 of land was converted to urban use during this period, an increase in urbanization of 364%, the Delta’s urban land increased to over 2625 km 2 ; a quarter of the new urban areas were previously natural vegetation or water, and most were converted from farmland, approximately 1376km2 by 1996. Flood risk in the PRD The urbanization process, i.e. population and economic growth, in the PRD is still ongoing. The Outline Plan for the Reform and Development of the PRD (2008-2020) (Guangdong Province Housing & Urban – Rural Department 2011) intends for Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou to be further integrated to a mega-zone with a population of more than 30 million. The whole PRD region will have more than 65 million by 2020. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 8 – 10%, and is predicted to increase GDP per capita more than 60% after 10 years. The PRD is no different to other deltaic regions under the threat of coastal flooding in light of climate change, sea-level rise and surges. Inland floods also occur from the tropical cycloneinduced rain storms in the South China Sea: more than 1700 mm precipitation (about 80% of annual rainfall) is recorded from May to September during the typhoon
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season in the summer (Yim 1996). For example, Hong Kong records more than 200mm rainfall within 24 hours on some days during the rainstorm season every year; bringing a high flash flood risk in the floodplains and a big challenge on the urban drainage system (Chui, Leung and Chu 2006). Typhoons are often combined with high winds, thunderstorms, huge waves and surges, and it leads to erosion of the sea-shore. Coastal infrastructures, e.g. sea-walls, will be damaged under typhoon conditions and may even collapse. From 1947 – 2006, more than 20 storm surges were recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory; water level was raised by more than an average of 1.5m above the mean sea level (MSL) (Wai 1990). The surge in 1962 from Typhoon Wanda, led to a sea-level 4m higher than normal and caused severe flooding in Hong Kong, with more than 184 deaths (Lee et al. 2010). HKLC (2010) describe how two recent storm surges in the PRD on (Typhoon Hagupit in, August 2008, and Typhoon Koppu in September 2009) led to the tide level reaches of 2.5 to 3.2 m above normal in 7 tidal gauges located along the PRD region (HKO 2012). In historical records from the 1950s to 2000s, the maximum sea-level rise under storm surges in Pearl River Estuary were recorded between 1.9m and 2.6m. More than 41 storm surges induced by typhoons affected the coast of Guangdong Province, with an average annual rate of 2.7 per year (Figure 1) over the period of 1991–2005 (Zhang 2009).
Fig. 1 Annual number of Typhoon storm surges in the PRD from 1991 to 2005. Source: (Zhang, 2009)
Chen and Chen (2002) predict that if the rate of sea-level rise is at 4.1-4.6mm/year, then sea level will rise at least 30cm by 2050. This will lead the sea inundation to affect more than 2000km2 of the coastal area in the PRD; the size is almost twice that of Hong Kong. Huang et al. (2004) agrees that a large part of the delta plain will be vulnerable to tidal inundation with a sea level rise of 30 cm. Zhang (2009) predicts that the coastal inundation area will force nearly a million people to relocate in the region. If the sea-level rise is 1m, the inundation will be more than 6,500 km 2; this could potentially cause the whole PRD region to be overcome by sea water. In fact, some 86.7% of the PRD area relies on dikes to prevent coastal flooding and storm surges. However, not many dikes in the region are able to protect 1 in 100 year storm tide (Zhou and Cai 2010). Meanwhile, the coastline is moving 1km seaward from 1995 - 2005 due to the reclamation and coastal development, the risk of sea inundation is even higher (Hay and Mimura 2006).The economic losses from 30cm sea-level rise could be more than 231 billion RMB if there is no coastal protection and adaptation plan by 2030 (Syvitski et al. 2009). Recent data shows the land and property prices in the PRD region have dramatically increased more than 200% from the 1990s (Hui and Ng 2009). In fact, many residential and industrial infrastructures
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in the PRD have been built along the floodplain or reclaimed area converted from the natural wetland, e.g. luxury apartments and industrial zones have been developed in Shenzhen Bay and Shekou wetland area in the last 20 years (Li and Damen 2010). In consideration of these areas that have already been urbanized, the authority may be able to use engineering adaptation for coastal flood management (e.g. dikes). Lessons on flood management strategy from the UK In the last few decades, the flood appraisal practices in the UK has transformed from one dimensional, only focusing on economic domain (e.g. Cost and Benefit Evaluation) to multi-dimensional considerations (See Table 2). It implies the influence of sustainable development in the 1980s as a catalyst to progress flood appraisal in the UK. To enhance openness and transparent flood management practice, the flood appraisal participation is involved with wider stakeholders including the government authorities (Defra, EA and IDBs), water companies and water consultants after 1990s. In 2005, the UK government illustrated a new flood risk management strategy, Making Space for Water (MSW) (Defra 2007). The insight of MSW aims to underpin sustainable development in all decisions and operations of flood risk management. It particular highlights “local participation” and “public awareness” in MSW to demonstrate a shift of flood risk responsibility to downwards level. Campaigns like “live with floods” and “MSW” to show the government agrees it is impossible building flood defence against the nature. Thus, the main strategy on flood risk management in the UK is working along with the local planning authorities and authorities i.e. Policy Plan Statement 25 (PPS 25) (DCLG 2007). Aiming to plan before developing to appraise flood risk and avoid developing properties on the floodplain and high flood risk areas. Indeed, the flood risk appraisal considers a sustainable context including sustainability assessment in a strategic level. The UK government has indicated that action taken to manage flood risk is consistent with delivering their sustainable agenda. Carter, White and Richards (2009) noted the sustainability appraisal (SA) in PPS 25 still has room to improve enhancing the contribution to flood risk management, such as the subjective process of determining the significance of impacts identified within SA reports can lead to flood risk issues being overlooked in favour of other issues such as economic development or housing provision, it may not reflects the balanced and sustainable option for decision makers. Due to the nature of spatial plans mainly considering the regional level, it is difficult to assess and predict flooding, specifically the small site scale flooding. As the nature of SA always focus on the board issues, and leaving the detailed consideration of flood risk to the assessment to the assessment of local level spatial plans and the EIA of projects (Carter et al. 2009). Meanwhile Johnson, Penning-Rowsell and Parker (2007) indicates current cost-beneficial system in England and Wales are well considered in many aspects, but also has some limitations, such as only covering the fluvial and coastal flooding and not including other flood risks (i.e. sewer flooding). The benefit/cost ratios also dominate on economic benefits on flood risk management, as it is found the social and environmental cost or value are normally difficult to justify. Indicators in the project appraisal priority scoring system may not be enough to carry out the social and environmental justice. That is going opposite to the aspiration from MSW or sustainable principle. In the current flood appraisal, it is lack of guidance on ecosystem services. Inter-tidal saltmarshes and mudflats is our
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natural flood defence to storm surges against coastal flooding. Habitats such as woodland, heathland, and wetland have the capacity to slow the surface flow of water into rivers and streams, and store water within the habitat (Milligan et al. 2009). Restoration of wetland and rivers provide us options to reduce flood risk but also enhance the ecological and environmental sustainability for the nature and inhabitants. In addition, building or constructing flood protection barriers using hard engineering approaches can be very costly and can cause adverse effect to the environment during the project. These advances in flood risk planning and management are already firmly integrated into the existing development appraisal process via Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Sustainability Appraisal (SA) at the strategy level, and via Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) at the project level (Posas 2011). In all cases, the economic, environmental and social impacts must be considered, including, significantly for flood risk, consideration of secondary and cumulative effects (Carter and Howe 2006). Developments that do not formally require SEA/SA or EIA may still now require a separate flood risk appraisal under the new Flood and Water Act (H.M.Government 2010). Public participation is seen as key to achieving sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) in the UK. In developing flood alleviation schemes or flood defense projects, the responsible body (e.g. Environment Agency in England and Wales) actively seeks input from the public and NGOs, often in both the design and appraisal of flood management actions. For example, local residents and The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds were active on the Humber Estuary coastal flood management committee board. This kind of participative management approach certainly takes time; however, it is also considered vital to delivering better schemes through an open and interactive dialogue in which stakeholders can voice concerns, express community wishes, and provide expert local knowledge (e.g. on valued ecosystems) (Edwards and Winn 2006). As a result, public participation in SFRM seeks to reduce conflict, identify a balance between social, environmental and economic interests of all stakeholders, and deliver better developments. This means developments that are more sensitive to flood risk, as well as flood defense projects which are more sensitive to wider sustainability concerns. The latest UK legislation has been driven by events; particularly flood events that have had major cost, both economically, and in terms of human misery, but the lesson appears to have been learnt, that flood risk is serious, is being exacerbated by climate change, and can no longer be marginalized and ignored in the development process, rather development must adapt to flood risk, and in the words of a recent influential report, ‘make space for water’. After UK 2007 flood, Pitt (2008) has emphasized the weaknesses in our split responsibility between Environment Agency (the main govern body of flood management in the UK), local authorities, the Internal Drainage Boards and water companies and so the water and floods bill in Clause 22 has just required the creation of strategic flood and coastal management Boards to provide that joined up response for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of better governance. In contrast, the evidence of flooding in Tai O town to show Hong Kong is exposed to coastal flooding. The DSD, however, is mainly dealing with urban and rural floods noticed on the DMP; the HKO is responsible for monitoring sea and tide level; and the Civil Engineering and Development Department (CEDD) is dealing with seawall maintenance and beach improvement. In the climate change consultation document (EPD 2010), it notices the institutional strengthening and capacity building to embed
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within broader sectoral initiatives that facilitate adaptation to climate change. In fact, the current governance of coastal flood management in Hong Kong remains blurred without transparent responsibilities, the coastal flood management strategies is still missing under the threat of coastal urbanization and climate change. Therefore, there is a need to develop significantly improved guidelines and indicators in flood risk appraisals that enhance balanced environmental, social and economic benefits. Table 2 Progress on flood risk appraisal development in the UK Time Categories
1970 – 1980s Land drainage
1980 – 1990s Flood defence
1990 – present Flood risk management
Economic activities related to flood risk
Main focus on agricultural production
Floodplain and coastal development of business and residential properties
Floodplain and coastal development of business and residential properties
Priority of the options in appraisal
Food security or production and agricultural activities
Urban, residential, commercial and industrial development
Economic, social and environmental protection are equally important
Participation
No public involvement, only IDBs and expert committees
No public involvement, only experts and officials
Wide range of stakeholder participation involved : (i) lead local flood authorities (e.g. Defra and EA), (ii) district councils, (iii) IDBs, and (iv) highway authorities
Technological and engineering options
Hard engineering based land drainage
Hard engineering based of urban flood control (e.g. river walls, embankments, channelization and bypass channels)
Sustainable technology applies, i.e. sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS), floodplain restoration, flood proofing
Environmental concern
Agricultural practice focused over the habitat, no sign in the project appraisal in the 70s
Urban flood defence focused than ecology, EIA in the project level is required in the late 1980s
SA/SEA, EIA are required in the PPS 25, a wider concern about the environment
Appraisal categories
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
CBA, EIA
CBA, EIA, SA/SEA
Conclusion Flood mitigation and protection options for the PRD are limited. Managed retreat or realignment is limited because of the high value of the land, the numbers in the established population and the existing urban infrastructure. However, further complexity is added by the two very different flood drivers in operation; (i) from the coastal storms and surges, (ii) from the upper reaches of the Pearl River where flows may be modified by rapid land use changes. The remaining options are: (1) Physical protection; (2) Economic protection (i.e. flood insurance) and (3) Contingency planning (i.e. emergency evacuation). Each of these has some value but the complexity of the site and the geomorphic activity of the delta constrain the large scale use of physical protection which will have to be focussed on particular independent units. Both economic and contingency planning options have potential but are constrained by the different governances and transboundary issues in
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