Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
Transformation of the Party System in the Czech Republic: The End of Left-Right Politics? Lukas Hajek, Charles University 15th September, 2017
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
research topic ´ transformation of party systems ´ standard tools of analysis (fragmentation, volatility etc.) ´ dynamic process ´ transformation of the party system in the Czech Republic ´ the Chamber of Deputies
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
analysing party system change a) Number of Parties 10
b) Electoral Volatility
Number of parties Effective number of parties
8
100 80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
0 1993
1996
2002 Year
2006
2010
2013
Pedersen Index Type A Volatility
1993
1996
2002
2006
Year
Figure 1. Number of Parties in the Chamber of Deputies and Electoral Volatility in the Czech Republic (1993-2013)
2010
2013
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
nevertheless “there is something that counting cannot detect and yet is essential” Giovanni Sartori Parties and Party Systems, 1978
´ moderate and polarized pluralism “these classes cannot be identified and sustained on numerical grounds only” Giovanni Sartori Parties and Party Systems, 1978
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
data ´ revealing parties’ ideological positions ´ expert surveys, public surveys, document analyses etc. g) 2013−2017
´ two-dimensional space ´ institutional dimension ´ ideological dimension
0.5 0.0 −0.5
´ roll call spatial analysis
ANO CSSD KDU−CSL KSCM
−1.0
´ 51,364 roll calls of 1,498 MPs
Second Dimension (Expl. Var. = 46.45%)
´ 7 parliamentary terms (1993-2017)
1.0
´ votes by roll call
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
ODS TOP09 USVIT
0.5
First Dimension (Expl. Var. = 53.55%)
1.0
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
method ´ identification of the socio-economic left-right dimension ´ selection of roll calls g) 2013−2017
0.5 0.0 −0.5
´ ideological changes year by year
ANO CSSD KDU−CSL KSCM
−1.0
´ Bayesian analysis
Second Dimension (Expl. Var. = 46.45%)
´ dynamic item response theory model
1.0
´ Andrew D. Martin & Kevin M. Quinn
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
ODS TOP09 USVIT
0.5
First Dimension (Expl. Var. = 53.55%)
1.0
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
6 ODS
4
ODS−KDS TOP09
Ideal Point (θp,t )
2
ODA KDU−CSL
VV
US KDU−CSL SZ
K 0
HSD−SMS LSU CSSD
KDU−CSL ANO USVIT
KSCM
SPR−RSC −2
LB
−4
−6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year (t)
Figure 2. Parties’ Ideal Points in the Chamber of Deputies (1993-2017)
2016
2017
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
1993
1996
1998
2002
2006
2010
2013
2014
General LeftRight
0.851
0.983
0.936
0.757
Economic Left-Right
0.748
0.983
0.922
0.875
2017
Chapel Hill Expert Survey
Comparative Manifesto Project Right-Left
0.635
0.772
0.974
0.907
0.881
0.513
Market Economy
0.839
0.360
0.953
0.765
0.849
0.800
0.722
0.435
0.842
0.982
0.915
0.870
IVVM/CVVM Left-Right
0.748
0.884
0.845
Table 1. Pearson Correlation Coefficients Between the Roll Call Analysis Ideal Points and Other Methods Revealing Parties’ Spatial Positions
1993 1996 1998 from the 2002 Work in progress. Do not quote without permission author.
2006
2010
2013
2017
Year
b) Ideological Polarization Index
Ideological Polarization Index
10
8
●
●
● ●
6
●
●
●
4.66
●
3.56
●
●
●
●
4
●
●
●
●
●
3.92
●
●
2 1.81
0 1993
1996
1998
2002
2006
2010
2013
Year
Figure 3. Ideological Polarization in the Chamber of Deputies (1993-2017)
2017
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
a) Number of Parties 10
b) Electoral Volatility
Number of parties Effective number of parties
8
100 80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
0 1993
1996
2002 Year
2006
2010
2013
Pedersen Index Type A Volatility
1993
1996
2002
2006
Year
Figure 1. Number of Parties in the Chamber of Deputies and Electoral Volatility in the Czech Republic (1993-2013)
2010
2013
1993 1996 1998 from the 2002 Work in progress. Do not quote without permission author.
2006
2010
2013
2017
Year
b) Ideological Polarization Index
Ideological Polarization Index
10
8
●
●
● ●
6
●
●
●
4.66
●
3.56
●
●
●
●
4
●
●
●
●
●
3.92
●
●
2 1.81
0 1993
1996
1998
2002
2006
2010
2013
Year
Figure 3. Ideological Polarization in the Chamber of Deputies (1993-2017)
2017
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
conclusions ´ transformation of the Czech party system ´ fragmentation + ideological polarization ´ centripetal partisan competition ´ moderate pluralism ´ principal parties in the ideological center ´ method ´ dynamic analysis of a party system’s transformation ´ evolution of parties’ ideological position
Work in progress. Do not quote without permission from the author.
thank you very much Lukas Hajek
[email protected]
