Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry
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Trends & Statistics - January 2014
Insight Department VisitScotland January 2014 1
Welcome In today’s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today’s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future.
Insights Summary
September saw a healthy domestic overnight trip market, with over 1m trips, nights up by 12% and spend up by £83. The trend of strong growth in holiday trips noted in August continued. Day trips were slightly down in November compared to Nov ’12, however spend per trip was up. Holiday park occupancy rates were up 3% over the year, reflecting the good summer weather and increase in domestic holiday trips. The Rough Guide and the Guardian are two of the sources identifying Glasgow as a top destination for 2014.
Digital Trends
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Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) Domestic Overnight Tourism 6.0% 5.0% % Change Year-on-Year
September saw particularly good results for overnight trips taken in Scotland, with over 1m trips, up 12.1% year-on-year while nights were up 12.5% and spend up by £83m to £317m, a 35.5% increase. The outstanding figures were the result of strong growth in holiday trips to Scotland. Across the UK, trips were up 3.9% and spend by 9.0%. For the year to September, trips were up 1.3% year-on-year at 9.55 million, nights up 4.9% at 34.11 million and spend up 3.0% at £2255 million.
4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Trips (m)
Night (m)
Spend (£m)
% Change
1.3%
4.9%
3.0%
Jan - Sep 12
9.43
32.53
2189.00
Jan - Sep 13
9.55
34.11
2255.00
International Tourism to Scotland International Inbound Tourism
% Change Year-on-Year
20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
Trips (m)
Night (m)
Spend (£m)
% Change
7.9%
11.0%
18.8%
Q1-3 2012
1.82
14.46
1162.56
Q1-3 2013
1.96
16.05
1380.78
During the third quarter of 2013 (July – Sept) there were 996,000 international overnight visitors to Scotland, up 18.7% on the same period in 2012, with a 7.9% increase over the year to date. International visitor spend in Quarter 3 was £759 million, a 28.7% increase yearon-year. Spend was 18.8% up over the year to date. 49% of international visitors during Quarter 3 were from the EU, 10% from non-EU ‘Rest of Europe’ countries, 20% from North America and 21% from Rest of the World. The highest percentage increase year-onyear was from ‘other EU’ (i.e. not the EU15) countries with a 47% increase in visits, followed by Rest of the World (i.e. not Europe, North America) with a 33% increase. There was a drop in year-on-year Q3 visitor numbers from Canada (-13%) and New Zealand (-10%) but increases from the USA (21%) and Australia (+32%).
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Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) Tourism Day Visits
2.0% 0.0% % Change Year-on-Year
The number of day visits during November was down slightly year-onyear. Spend was down on November 2012 but similar to November 2011 levels. Weather may have been an influence with blustery, showery conditions, although these were interspersed with dry, sunny periods, especially in the East. Average spend per trip was up year-on-year at £37.19, up from £32.31 in 2012. Over the year to November, trips were down 12.2% and spend up1.1% on 2012 levels.
-2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
Trips (m)
Spend (£m)
-12.2%
1.1%
Jan-Nov 2012
129
£4,169
Jan-Nov 2013
113
£4,216
% Change
Accommodation Occupancy Occupancy levels for the year to October were good, with all sectors up year on year. Holiday parks completed the year 3% up on 2012, helped by the good summer and increase in domestic holiday trips. For the month of October occupancy was up on 2011 and 2012 levels for hotels, B&Bs and hostels. Confidence levels for the month of October (3 month outlook) were up for all sectors except hostels which saw a 7% fall. B&B/GH showed the highest increase in confidence, up 10%.
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Tourism Trends Trend
Consumer Conditions
Commentary Mixed results from high street holiday sales reinforce the ‘squeezed middle’ with mid-market stores such as M&S and Tesco performing poorly. Accountancy firm BDO research suggested stores had to use discounting to achieve sales in mid-December. A Which? Survey of 2000 people found half of UK consumers fear they will be under more financial pressure in 2014 than in the previous year. The Australian economy is suffering from the economic slowdown in China which is reducing demand for commodities leading to falling export prices. New car sales were however healthy, and Rolls Royce achieved its 4 successive year of record profits. Top importers were the Middle East and China, and UK sales are also growing. The value of the £ rose steadily against both the US dollar and the Euro over the final quarter of 2013, providing good value for UK residents travelling abroad but making the UK a more expensive destination from the US and the Eurozone. The Japanese Yen has declined sharply in value, threatening sales of Harris Tweed. In recent years Japan has overtaken the USA and Germany as the top importer of the fabric, popularised in events such as Tweed Run Tokyo, a mass cycle ride. December was the wettest month ever recorded in Scotland with over 11 inches of rain. Storms caused major disruption to transport on the 5 and the 19 . January has seen more wet and windy weather. The US has been hit first by the ‘Hercules’ storm which dumped 2 ft. of snow in the north-east, followed by the ‘Polar Vortex’ with extremely low temperatures affecting the whole country and causing widespread disruption. The island of Coll was granted ‘Dark Sky’ status joining Galloway Forest Park, recognition that it is one of the best places in the UK for stargazing. The BBC ‘Stargazing’ programme in January focussed on the Aurora Borealis, featuring sightings from Scottish locations such as Caithness. Glasgow is being touted as a top destination for 2014 by various sources such as Rough Guide and the Guardian, highlighting its cultural appeal as a former European City of Culture and UK City of Architecture & Design as well as attractions such as the Riverside Museum, Burrell Collection and the new SSE Hydro Arena, and of course the line-up of 2014 events including the Commonwealth Games, Homecoming 2014 and the MTV Europe Music Awards. Lossiemouth is being considered as a possible base for a European Spaceport that could be used for space tourism and for launching polar orbiting satellites. Space tourism is close to becoming a reality with Virgin Galactic’s maiden flight due to depart from New Mexico this year. The Royal Yacht Britannia welcomed almost 300,000 visitors in 2013, their best year since 2003. The year marked the 60 Anniversary of the vessel’s launch, and also saw the business’ commitment to sustainable tourism recognised with a Gold Award from the Green Tourism Business Scheme. Ryanair launched allocated seating following easyJet’s successful adoption of the service. The CAA urges consumers to ensure holidays are ATOL protected, as online bargain hunters may forget to check they have this cover. Group adventure tour operator Exodus has launched a new Scottish wildlife trip visiting the Cairngorms, Mull and the Treshnish Isles. The Amber Restaurant at the Scotch Whisky Experience have created Scottish Dim Sum, preparing traditional Scottish ingredients using international techniques to increase appeal to Chinese visitors who enjoy sharing food. From 15 December Spain and France have a high-speed rail connection for the first time, running twice daily between Barcelona and Paris. Services have been close to 100% capacity in all 3 classes. Rail Europe forecast one million passengers will travel superfast between France and Spain in 2014, with links also to Madrid, Marseille, Montpellier, Toulouse and Lyon. More flybe routes are withdrawn as restructuring continues, however the Glasgow – Paris CDG route will be reinstated 20-24 Feb for the 6 Nations Rugby Tournament. CityJet are replacing flybe on routes between Glasgow/Edinburgh and Cardiff. Scandinavian airlines will operate new routes between Edinburgh and Oslo/Stavanger April through October. Flights between Glasgow and the Isle of Man will resume in the spring. th
Exchange Rates
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Weather
News
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Tourism Industry
Travel Demand
Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months.
Cover Image: Buachaille Etive Mhor (copyright Thinkstock) For further information on this briefing please contact the Insights Department -
[email protected]
Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn’t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material.
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Notes
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