Water, Energy and Food Nexus: The Q-Nexus Model
Ali Karnib, PhD Professor of Engineering Lebanese University
[email protected]
10th WORLD CONGRESS on Water Resources and Environment - “Panta Rhei”
5-9 July 2017 Athens Greece
Q-Nexus Model
Outline
1
IWRM vs Nexus Approach
2
Q-Nexus Model – The Concept
3
3 Functions: Quantification, Simulation & Optimization
4
Embedded Water & Energy
5
SDGs – Sustainable Development
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model
IWRM vs Nexus Approach
The Nexus approach seeks to look at water energy and food resources holistically. IWRM takes water as center point when considering the interrelationships between water, energy and food.
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model
The Nexus Approach
Additional Food Water for Food
Energy for Water
Energy for Food
Energy for Energy
Water for Energy
Food for Energy
Food for Food
Water for Food
Energy for Food
Direct Effect
Food for Food
Indirect Effect
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept
Quantitative Accounting System
Energy
Food
Intersectoral Use
Food
Energy
Water
Water
End Use
Ali Karnib 2017
Total Use
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept
Quantitative Accounting System Intersectoral Use
Total Use
Water
Food
Water for Water
Water for Energy
Water for Food
Water
Water
Energy
Energy
Energy for Water
Energy for Energy
Energy for Food
Energy
Energy
Food
Water
End Use
Food for Water
Food for Energy
Food
Food
Food for Food Ali Karnib 2017
Example on the inflows considered in the Lebanese case study
Water Inflows
Surface water extraction (including water storage) Groundwater extraction Desalinated water produced Reuse of treated wastewater (including treatment) Recycled water and reuse of treated agricultural drainage water (including treatment)
Energy Inflows
Imported Petroleum Electricity (Petroleum and natural gas) Electricity (hydro) Imported Electricity Electricity (wind/solar) Biofuels
Food Inflows
Irrigated Cereals Irrigated Roots and Tubers Irrigated Vegetables Irrigated Fruits Other Irrigated Agriculture products Livestock-Meat production Livestock-Milk production Livestock-Eggs production Fishing and aquaculture production Rainfed Agriculture Imported Agricultural products Imported Livestock products(Meat, Milk & Eggs) & Fish
MCM MCM MCM MCM MCM Ktoe Ktoe Ktoe Ktoe Ktoe Ktoe
Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt Kt
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept
The the WEF nexus technology matrix Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept The the WEF nexus equation
Leontief inverse or the total requirements matrix
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model Q-Nexus
Model Concept Model Variables
Karnib 2017, Evaluation of Technology Change Effects on Quantitative Assessment of Water, Energy and Food Nexus, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 5, 1-13
Intersectoral Technology matrix (A)
Nexus Intensity Matrix (NIM) Nexus Allocation Matrix (NAM) Ali Karnib 2017
Quantify
Optimize
Simulate Ali Karnib 2017
Quantify Lebanon’s (2012) total primary energy usage was 5523.75 ktoe
Water for Energy indicators Water use in the jth energy inflow
Energy-related water usage
Mm3
2.0 Mm3
Proportion of the energy-related water usage
%
Intensity of water use in the jth energy inflow
m3/toe
Intensity of energy-related water usage
0.2 m3/toe
……………………………………………………………….. Ali Karnib 2017
Quantify Example of WEF nexus water for energy indicators of the Q-Nexus Model
Allocation- Intensitybased based indicators indicators
Quantity-based indicators
Description
Equation 𝑛
Water use in the production of the jth energy inflow
𝑤_𝑒 𝑧𝑗𝑤_𝑒 = 𝑧𝑖𝑗 𝑖=1
𝑚
Water use in the energy production
𝑛
𝑤_𝑒 𝑧 𝑤_𝑒 = 𝑧𝑖𝑗 𝑗=1 𝑖=1
Intensity of water use in the production of the jth energy inflow
𝑡𝑗𝑤_𝑒 𝑤_𝑒
Intensity of water use in energy production
𝑠
Proportion of water usage in the jth energy inflow to the total water use in energy
𝑑𝑗𝑤_𝑒
Proportion of water use in energy to the total water use Ali Karnib 2017
𝑔
𝑤_𝑒
=
𝑧𝑗𝑤_𝑒 𝑥𝑗𝑒
𝑧 𝑤_𝑒 = 𝑒 𝑥 =
𝑧𝑗𝑤_𝑒
𝑧 𝑤_𝑒
𝑧 𝑤_𝑒 = 𝑤 𝑥
Quantify Water for Food indicators: Lebanon’s (2012) total foodrelated water consumption was 𝑧 𝑤_𝑓 = 760.95 Mm3 which accounts for 64.27 % of the total water withdrawal; the intensity of food-related water usage (water footprint of food) 𝑎𝑤_𝑓 = 142 m3/t.
Ali Karnib 2017
Quantify Energy for Food indicators: Lebanon’s (2012) total foodrelated energy consumption was 𝑧 𝑒_𝑓 = 80.21 ktoe which accounts for 1.61 % of the total energy usage; the intensity of food-related energy usage (energy footprint of food) 𝑎𝑒_𝑓 = 15 toe/kt.
Ali Karnib 2017
Simulate Q-Nexus Model
What if? Possible options of: Drivers Options Intersectoral Technology matrix (A)
Technological change
End Use
Consumption patterns Global environmental change Demographic change ……………
Management Options Ali Karnib 2017
Simulate Example A scenario of increase of irrigated food products demand of 20% We assume that the technology of the water, energy and food production (as represented in the A matrix), is unchanged Water will ultimately have to increase its direct and indirect outputs by 131.05 Mm3 which accounts for 11.07% increase in water of the total water withdrawal. Energy, in satisfying the new food demand, will have to increase its direct and indirect outputs by 25.8268 ktoe which accounts for 0.47% increase in energy of the total energy usage. Moreover, electricity sector has to increase its production by 17.64 ktoe and the petroleum products by 8.21 ktoe.
Ali Karnib 2017
Simulate
Ali Karnib 2017
Examples of WEF nexus policy options, potential related drivers and the corresponding input variables of the Q-Nexus Model
Scenarios Increasing water demand Increasing energy demand Increasing food demand Reduction of cultivated lands Reducing Irrigated agriculture due to water scarcity Increasing water recycling and reuse Changing water allocation Increasing use efficiency Change in cropping type/pattern Replacement of gravity irrigation with pressurized irrigation system Upgrade agricultural technologies Promote renewable and clean energy sources Change in food crop productivity Technology change in energy production Resources allocation policies Reduce losses and wastes
Variables y t c Population Growth, Urbanization
Potential related drivers
Population Growth, Urbanization Population Growth, Urbanization Urbanization Climate Change (Precipitation) Governance Governance Technology Change Governance, Climate Change
Governance, Technology Change
Governance, Technology Change Governance, Technology Change Governance, Technology Change Governance, Technology Change Governance Governance, Technology Change
Optimize 1- Find the water allocation in energy and food sectors that minimize the total intersectoral energy use
2- Find the energy allocation in water, energy and food sectors that minimize the total intersectoral water use
3- Select crops based on trade-offs between revenue, water-use, and demand objectives
Ali Karnib 2017
Optimize Example By applying the proposed S-O framework, the best water and energy allocation coefficients that minimize the total provision cost of the additional water and energy resources are calculated.
The cost of the additional water and energy resources of the optimized scenario is 259.09 million USD, which is 12% less than the cost calculated based on the allocation coefficients of the BAU scenario.
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model
Embedded Water & Energy
Embedded Water (Virtual Water)
Embedded Energy
Source: FAO
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model
WEF Nexus and the SDGs
Water-Use Efficiency (SDG-6.4.1) Agricultural (USD/m3)
Energy (MWh/m3)
Industrial (USD/m3)
Municipal supply (%)
Water Stress (SDG-6.4.2)
𝑻𝑾𝑾 𝑾𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒔 % = ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝑻𝑹𝑾𝑹 − 𝑬𝒏𝒗 Linking the SDGs indicator to the nexus approach The opportunity of linking the SDGs indicator to the nexus approach is by evaluating simulated values of the SDGs indicators for future nexus scenarios.
Ali Karnib 2017
Q-Nexus Model
Conclusions
A Nexus Approach For Sustainable Development
SNA
Q-Nexus Ali Karnib 2017
SEEA
Q-Nexus Model
References
1. Karnib Ali, 2017, Water, Energy and Food Nexus: The Q-Nexus Model, 10th World Congress of EWRA on Water Resources and Environment “Panta Rhei”, Athens Greece, 701-709. 2. Karnib Ali, 2017, Water-Energy-Food Nexus: A Coupled Simulation and Optimization Framework, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Scientific Research Publishing Inc., 5, 84-98. 3. Karnib Ali, 2017, Evaluation of Technology Change Effects on Quantitative Assessment of Water, Energy and Food Nexus, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Scientific Research Publishing Inc., 5, 1-13. 4. Karnib Ali, 2017, Quantitative Assessment Framework for Water, Energy and Food Nexus, Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Journal, Scientific Research Publishing Inc., 6, 11-23. 5. Karnib Ali, 2016, A methodological approach for sustainability assessment: application to the assessment of the sustainable water resources withdrawals, International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience publishers, 19, 402-417.
Ali Karnib 2017
THANK YOU
Ali Karnib, PhD Professor of Engineering Lebanese University
[email protected]
