What Every Leader Should. Know about Macroeconomics. Charles I. Jones.
Stanford GSB. January 13, 2014. Ten Macro Ideas – p.1/74 ...
Useful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015
Many of these graphs are updated versions of graphs in the Short-Run section of my Macroeconomics textbook (W.W. Norton, 2014). Others are just graphs that I find useful in my teaching.|
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 1
Fig 9.3: U.S. Economic Fluctuations Short−run output, Ytilde +5% +4% +3% +2% +1% 0 −1% −2% −3% −4% −5% −6% −7% −8% 1970 1975 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 2
Fig 9.4: Change in U.S. Employment Monthly change in employment (percent) 1.5
1
0.5
0
−0.5
−1 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 3
Fig 10.2: The Fed Funds Rate Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000
2005
2010
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
2015 Year Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 4
Fig 10.6: U.S. Employment Millions 142 140 138 136 134 132 130 128 2000
2005
2010
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
2015 Year Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 5
Fig 10.7: U.S. Economic Fluctuations since 2000 Short−run output, Ytilde +4% +3% +2% +1% 0 −1% −2% −3% −4% −5% −6% −7% −8% 2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 6
Fig 10.8: U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2000
2005
2010
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
2015 Year Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 7
The U.S. Employment-Population Ratio
Down from 63 to 58 V versus ∪
Percent 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
2005
2010
2015 Year
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 8
Fig 10.10: Inflation in the U.S. Percent 6
Dec 2007 = 2.4% Dec 2010 = 0.6% Nov 2014 = 1.7%
All items 5 4 3 2 1
Excluding food and energy
0 −1 −2 2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 9
Forecasts of CPI Inflation, 1 Year and 10 Years Ahead Percent 5
4
Forecast for 10 years ahead
3
2 Forecast for 1 year ahead 1
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, FRB Philadelphia Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 10
Commodity Prices over the Long Run
Source: Economist, “Resource prices” Oct 14th 2011.
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 11
Real GDP per Person in the United States Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40
30 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 12
Real GDP per Person – Current Recession Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100) 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 13
Real GDP per Employee – Current Recession GDP per Employee 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 14
The Beveridge Curve (2010 Nobel Prize in Economics)
Source: BLS JOLTS Highlights Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 15
OECD Outlook: Growth in Real GDP per Person
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 16
World Outlook: Real GDP Growth
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 17
OECD Outlook: Forecast Errors
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 18
Dropping the Fed Funds rate to zero Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 19
Risk spreads in interbank lending http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND
TED Spread: difference between the 3-month LIBOR rate and the 3-month U.S. treasury yield Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 20
Fig 14.1: Ten Year Bond Spreads 10 BAA Corporate Bond Yield
9 8 7 6 5 4
10−Year Treasury Yield
3 Spread
2 1 1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 Year
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 21
Percent 8 6
Taylor Rule prediction
4
Actual fed funds rate
2 0 −2 2000
+2
2005
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
Short−run output
0 −2 −4 −6 −8 2000
3
2005
Core CPI inflation
2 1
2000
2005
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 22
Fig 14.8: The Fed’s Use of Unconventional Policies
Source: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 23
The Fed’s Stunning Use of Unconventional Policies
Source: MarketRealist.com
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 24
The S&P 500 Stock Price Index (real) Real Stock Price Index (ratio scale) 2560
1280
640
320
160
80 1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 Year
Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 25
Bubbles in the stock market? P/E Ratio 45 40 35 Average = 16.3
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000 Year
Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 26
Bubbles in housing prices? Real Home Price Index (1953=100, ratio scale) 200 180 Decline of 35.7 percent peak to trough
160 140 120
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 Year
Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 27
World Housing Prices (The Economist, August 2014)
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 28
Per capita GDP (US=100) United States Japan
80 Western Europe 40 20
Russia Brazil China
10
India
5 Sub−Saharan Africa 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 Year
Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World Tables Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 29
The Dynamics of Catch-Up Growth GDP per person (US=100) 100 80
Japan South Korea
Taiwan
40 20 China 10
India
5
0
10
20
30
40 50 60 70 Years since start of rapid growth
Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World Tables
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 30
The Euro Area Crisis: Ten Year Bond Yields Percent 14 12 10 8
Italy Spain
6 4
Germany
2 0 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015 Year
Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 31
Unit Labor Costs in Europe Index (2000=100) 140 Greece
135 130 Spain
125
Italy France
120 115 110
Germany
105 100 95 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012 Year
Source: FRED Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 32