Page 1 ... detailed best practices. Innovative tools allow us to model complex projects, and ... like the cathedral builders in the Middle. Ages. And we have shown ...
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COMMENT >> CRITICAL PATH
Why do projects fail? It’s the burning question that we all want answered. Here, BENT FLYVBJERG and ALEXANDER BUDZIER argue their case
Projects across industries and geographies struggle to meet the most basic targets. Five out of 10 technology projects, six out of 10 energy projects, seven out of 10 dams, nine out of 10 transport projects and 10 out of 10 Olympic Games do not meet their cost targets. This trend has been constant, and there has been no improvement over the past century. Why? Project management has reinvented itself many times. Professional communities have codified and shared detailed best practices. Innovative tools allow us to model complex projects, and enable us to simulate and understand intricate interdependencies. Yet, if the goal was to improve project performance, all these strides seem wasted. Our ongoing research has found there is a fundamental flaw in the thinking of many project professionals and academics. Solutions to fix project performance attempt to make our mental models of projects more lifelike. They try to capture more of the complexities, more of the detail. They aim to replicate the success of weather forecasters, yet they do not achieve the same results in terms of predictability and accuracy of outcomes. This is because project, programme and portfolio leadership will not succeed by modelling complexity – they will succeed by understanding simplicity. We found that masterbuilders use simple heuristics and rigorous programmatics to succeed in project management. First, leading psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has demonstrated that heuristics – the simple rules and intuitions that guide true experts – perform as well as, and often exceed, sophisticated complex models. Project leadership is therefore not about understanding and managing more complexity, more detail and more data. PROJECT >> SUMMER 2015
Instead, following simple rules is likely to better contribute to success. These rules include: “Size is dangerous, physical and temporal – break it down where you can,” or “Don’t always do! Understand the value of not acting,” or “Think from right to left,” and many more. Would these heuristics work for you? What are yours? You need to know, and
How can someone build iconic buildings, such as the Guggenheim Bilbao, on time, on budget and exceeding the expected benefits, over and over again? if you don’t, you should probably not be leading any projects of consequence. Indeed, Gigerenzer’s most famous book, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, demonstrates how leadership is about using heuristics that make us succeed. Second, innovation research has taught us the important lesson that it is not the inventor, but the innovator, who succeeds. It is not the person with the brilliant idea, the flash of genius, who successfully disrupts industries. It is the system builder. Great leadership is not the work of a single person, but the building and orchestrating of the whole project system. We found that programmatics – key activities programmed into rigorous structures and processes – are how project masterbuilders build their systems for success. One of us studied how architect Frank Gehry succeeds. The key question was: how can someone build iconic buildings,
such as the Guggenheim Bilbao, on time, on budget and exceeding the expected benefits, over and over again? Gehry shared his vision: it’s about power. Project managers need to reclaim the title and position of masterbuilders, like the cathedral builders in the Middle Ages. And we have shown how this might be possible: by using simple, smart heuristics to make decisions and rigorous programmatics to build the project system. This is what we research and teach at Oxford – including coaching managers to develop their own personal set of eight to 10 key heuristics that will work for them. Lastly, we would like to make an invitation: if your experience and thinking resonate with our research into the heuristics and programmatics of masterbuilders, or if you disagree, we would like you to join the debate. We would like to work with you and your leadership team so that we can all learn more and succeed with our projects.
BENT FLYVBJERG
is the first BT professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School ALEXANDER BUDZIER is a
researcher in major programme management at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School
