Why do we need to ``integrate

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[Aimers, 2007; Aimers & Hodell 2011; Yaeger & Hodell 2008]. ... c, d, e (Aimers & Hodell 2011). .... Bruce H Dahlin, John E Foss, and Mary E Chambers.
What can we learn about the Classical Maya collapse? Why do we need to “integrate”? Josu´e M. Polanco Mart´ınez.*(1,2) Mart´ın Medina-Elizalde(3) & S´ergio H. Faria(1,4) (1) BASQUE CENTRE for CLIMATE CHANGE - BC3,Bilbao, SPAIN. (2) EPHE, PSL Research University, Laboratoire Paloclimatologie et Paloenvironnements Marins, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, FRANCE. (3) Dept. of Geology, Amherst College, Amherst, USA. (4) IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation of Science, Bilbao, SPAIN. *josue. polanco@ bc3research. org , *josue. m. polanco@ gmail. com

PAGES workshop: Dynamics of socio-ecosystems on a changing Earth: sustainability or collapse?, Chamb´ery, Savoie Mont Blanc, FRANCE, 30 May – 1 June, 2016 1 / 15

Overview

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Motivation: “cultural background”

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What is the meaning of “Maya collapse”?

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Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse

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Why do we need to “integrate”?

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Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html

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Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

distinctive writing and calendric systems

Source: http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/madrid-codex.htm https://maya.nmai.si.edu/calendar/calendar-system

Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html 3 / 15

Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

polychrome ceramics

Source:

http://www.haciendapetac.com/blog/culture/

mayan-pottery-101 Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html 3 / 15

Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

corbelled vault architecture

Source: http://www.obrasweb.mx/mayas2012 FOTOGRAFIA Getty Images/Adalberto Rios Szalay Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html

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Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

major public architecture with pyramids, palaces, ball courts

Source: http://www.revistaexplore.com/yucatan/explora/en/articulo-1-153/m http://www.historymuseum.ca/cmc/exhibitions/civil/maya/mmc02eng.shtml http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/archaeology/palenque/

Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html

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Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” Maya civilization was one of the most successful on the planet, reaching the peak of its development during the Classic period (∼ 250 to 900 CE). The Classic period is characterised by:

use of dated monuments Source: http://www.marc.ucsb.edu/research/maya/ancient-maya-civilization/classic-period Figures: http://rayannmexico.weebly.com/physical-geography.html http://homepages.udayton.edu/~santamjc/Mexico1.html

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Sec. 1. Motivation: “cultural background”. Main geographical characteristics of CML region CML = Central Maya Lowlands 1

There are 3 distinct areas

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A karstic plateau - carbonate platform

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Max. elevations ∼ 350/400 m. & ∼ 150/200 m. (coastal shelves)

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Drainage is largely internal, except in the southern periphery.

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A north-south rainfall gradient: from 1000 to 3000 mm/yr.

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A strong seasonal climate!

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Vegetation follows regional patterns of precipitation, drainage and soils.

Ref. Dunning et al. (2012); Turner II & Sabloff (2012). Source: http://mayawoerterbuch.de/?author=13 4 / 15

Sec. 1 Motivation: “cultural background” The Classical period is divided in two sub-periods: the Early and the Late separated by a “hiatus”. All major centers of the region experienced major growth in the Late Classic Period and for reasons still “unknown”

the Classical Central Mayan Lowlands civilization ’collapsed’

around 900 CE (i.e., 1000/1100 years ago). 5 / 15

Sec. 2. What is the meaning of “Maya collapse”? Maya civilization in the Central Lowlands underwent a profound crisis and many cities were abandoned (depopulation of the region). The term “collapse” is used to describe a disintegration of the Classic Maya civilization during the TCP (∼ 750 to 1050 CE) Classical Maya collapse means a civilization decline, but it was not an extinction at all! The Maya people never fully disappeared (there are survivals in Y.P. :)), and persist to this day in southern Mexico & C. America.

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Sec. 2. What is the meaning of “Maya collapse”? Archaeologists -in general- say that the word “collapse” may not be the most adequate term, but rather “long-term process of Maya decline”.

This long-term process took place during ∼ 100 years and the abandon was not homogeneous [Aimers, 2007; Aimers & Hodell 2011; Yaeger & Hodell 2008].

However The population decreased ca. 90%! In this sense the term collapse is appropriate [Turner II 1990, at Turner II & Sabloff 2012]. The greatness of the Maya civilization never returned to its former capacity, modes of operation or splendor era. The remaining population dispersed across the region and was eventually subdued by the Spanish Conquistadors! 7 / 15

Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 1. Socio-political-military causes: 1

Competition between kings & nobles, peasant revolts

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Hostility among mini-empires (intersite warfare)

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Political revolution (similar to Arab Spring’)

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Overpopulation / subsistence stress

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Diseases/plagues

a (Aimers 2007; Altschuler 1958; A. Chase and D. Chase 2004, 2005; Erasmus 1965; Hamblin and Pitcher 1980; Kaplan 1963; Kidder 1950; Lowe 1982; Mason 1943; Morley and Brainerd 1956; Palka 1995, 1997; Satterthwaite 1936, 1937; Thompson 1931, 1954, 1970). b (Aimers 2007; Demarest 1978, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2004, 2006; Demarest and Valde s 1995; Demarest et al. 1997; Emery 1997; Foias 1996, 2004; Foias and Bishop 1997; Freidel and Rutledge 2001; Inomata 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006; Palka 2001; Van Tuerenhout 1996; Webster 1977, 1978, 1993, 2000a). c, d, e (Aimers & Hodell 2011).

Unlike many ancient civilizations across the globe, the Maya did not constitute a single empire

Source: http://www.authenticmaya.com/maya_warfare.htm 8 / 15

Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 2. Anthropogenic environmental impacts: Land use: “Large-scale” Maya landscape alterations: 1

Deforestation

Pop.: 13M

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Soil erosion

Area: GB

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Loss of fertility

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Human forest fires - human agricultural clearing

Ref. Aimers (2007); Heckbert (2013); Dunning et al. (2012); Turner II & Sabloff (2012).

Soil degradation (SIMULATED with MayaSim [Heckbert (2013)]) at 800-year intervals shows initial use [∼ 800 BCE] (left), peak degradation [∼ 800 CE] (middle), and degradation remaining during waning use [∼ 1600 CE] (right) after populations and trade routes collapse (greater degradation is darker red). Source: http://www.igbp.net/news/features/features/lessonsfromasimulatedcivilisation.5.64c294101429ba9184d4ba.html 9 / 15

Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 3. Environmental (natural) causes: 1

Natural hazards: 1 2 3 4

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Forest fires Volcanic activity Earthquakes Hurricanes (damages)

Forest changes: waxed and wanded

Ref. Aimers (2007); Dunning et al. 2012; Turner II & Sabloff (2012).

Area of study. Source: http://mayawoerterbuch.de/?author=13

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 3. Environmental (natural) causes: 1

Natural hazards: 1 2 3 4

2

Forest fires Volcanic activity Earthquakes Hurricanes (damages)

Forest changes: waxed and wanded

Ref. Aimers (2007); Dunning et al. 2012; Turner II & Sabloff (2012).

Current evidence (remote sensing): contextual algorithm to detect fires with GOES-East images. Montero-Mart´ınez, Polanco-Mart´ınez & Oropeza-Rosales

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 3. Environmental (natural) causes: 1

Natural hazards: 1 2 3 4

2

Forest fires Volcanic activity Earthquakes Hurricanes (damages)

Forest changes: waxed and wanded

Ref. Aimers (2007); Dunning et al. 2012; Turner II & Sabloff (2012).

Paleoecologic evidence: Laguna Llano (El Salvador) charcoal and Z. mays pollen accumulation profiles (Fig. 6; Dull 2004). TBJ (Tierra Blanca Jov´en), it is a volcano eruption.

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain Classic CML Collapse 3

Climate change/variability 1 Extreme events: droughts Firsts paleoclimate studies: Covich & Stuiver (1974): use δ 18 O of freshwater-snail shells in the Chichancanab lake that indicated CC. More late, Dahlin et al. (1980) & Dahlin (1983) through analysis of soil profiles, they attributed El Mirador’s demise to a severe drought.

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain Classic CML Collapse 3

Climate change/variability 1 Extreme events: droughts

Folan (1981); Folan et al. (1983) & Folan et al (1983) suggested that Classic Maya civilization collapse due to drought event during 900 CE. More late, confirmed by Hodell et al. (1995).

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain Classic CML Collapse 3

Climate change/variability 1 Extreme events: droughts Recent studies confirm this hypothesis: (Hodell et al. 2005; Webster et al. 2007; Medina-Elizalde et al. 2010; Stahle et al. 2011; Kennet et al. 2012).

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse 3

Climate change/variability 2 Change precipitation patterns 3 Change in regional climate 4 Hurricanes (decrease in intensity and frequency)

Medina-Elizalde, et al. (2012)

Frappier et al. (2007)

Bre˜ na-Naranjo, et al. (2015)

Medina-Elizalde, Polanco-Mart´ınez, et al. (accepted for publication, QR, 2016)

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Sec. 3. Hypotheses to explain the Classic CML Collapse CML collapse was a variable and complex phenomenon and there was not a unique cause. Anthropogenic environmental impacts and climatological events are among the main drivers that triggered the downfall of the most susceptible, populous regions of the Maya civilization. However, there are many open questions... Ref. Aimers & Hodell (2011); Mason (2012).

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Sec. 4 Why do we need to “integrate”? This historical event brings a unique opportunity to study the role of climate change in this complex phenomenon and how several factors interact among them. Can the Classic Maya civilization collapse be used as an Early Anthropocene analog??? [Beach et al. 2015]. Complex and multidisciplinary problem: 1 2 3 4 5

Social/human scientists: archaeologists, historians, etc. Ecologist & paleocologists Climatologists, climate modellers & paleoclimatologists Hydrologists & paleohydrologists Computational scientists, statisticians & mathematicians

Thus, more intensive & necessary collaboration among them is crucial!

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Thank you for your attention !

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James J Aimers. What maya collapse? terminal classic variation in the maya lowlands. Journal of archaeological research, 15(4):329–377, 2007.

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